Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Let me file that under fuck it.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

American History and Black History can not be separated.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

The US Supreme Court is on the ballot in november.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 889: Tallyho!

War for Ukraine Day 889: Tallyho!

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Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is doing excellently. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Let’s start with the good news:

The Associated Press has the details:

Ukraine has received the first F-16 fighter jets that it has sought for months to fight back against an onslaught of Russian missile strikes, a U.S. official confirmed to The Associated Press.

A Ukrainian lawmaker also confirmed Ukraine had received a small number of F-16 fighter jets. The two officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to speak on the subject publicly.

Ukraine has been pushing its Western allies for F-16s for Ukraine for months, saying they were critically needed to fight back against the onslaught of missiles Russia has fired against it. The F-16 is specialized in suppressing enemy air defenses. The West has hesitantly moved toward providing the jets, after previous concerns that arming Ukraine with advanced weaponry would further escalate the war with Russia.

The U.S. has also been training Ukrainian pilots on how to fly the jets and has already graduated the first group of pilots on its operation.

During his visit to Washington earlier this month for the NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed NATO allies to remove all limitations on how Western-provided weapons are used, specifically allowing Ukraine to fire Western-provided weapons against an expanded set of Russian targets.

It’s not clear how many jets were provided in the first tranche or which nations provided them. The Ukrainian government has not confirmed receipt of the jets.

Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway — all NATO members — have committed to providing Ukraine with more than 60 planes. That number is dwarfed by the Russian jet fighter fleet, which is estimated to be around 10 times larger.

Ukraine needs at least 130 F-16 fighter jets to neutralize Russian air power, Ukrainian officials say. F-16s can fly up to twice the speed of sound and have a maximum range of more than 2,000 miles (3,200 kilometers).

The bad news is that, as the AP reports, Ukraine needs at least 130 F-16 and only six were delivered today.

From The Times:

The first F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine, a year after they were pledged by four of the country’s Nato allies.

A source familiar with the matter told The Times that six jets had been supplied to Ukraine from the Netherlands, with more to follow shortly from Denmark. The Ukrainian air force declined to comment.

Kajsa Ollongren, the Dutch defence minister, had informed the Netherlands parliament that “delivery of the first aircraft will take place soon” in a letter dated July 1.

On June 16 President Zelensky had announced that Danish aircraft would start arriving “in the near future”.

A video posted on a Ukrainian Telegram channel on July 18 claimed to show an F-16 jet flying over the country, but could not be verified. However, on Wednesday Bloomberg reported the first delivery of a small number of warplanes, citing several anonymous sources.

Over the course of the next year, Kyiv is expected to receive about 20 of the aircraft, including further jets from Belgium and Norway, enough to form only a single squadron.

In the longer-term, the four countries have pledged some 80 of the ageing jets, but many are expected to be cannibalised for parts and may never fly. Ukraine has asked its allies for 300 warplanes as it battles an intense Russian bombing campaign that is crippling its critical infrastructure.

The airworthy planes will be equipped with updated radars from the manufacturer Lockheed Martin and modern US weaponry, including anti-radar missiles, laser-guided bombs and medium range air-to-air missiles.

For want of a nail.

As expected in last night’s update, Russia threw a large amount of drones and missiles at Ukraine.

100% russian drones destroyed!

Overnight, russia launched one of the most massive drone attacks since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. 🇺🇦 defenders shot down 89/89 “Shahed” UAVs and 1 Kh-59 missile.

Thank you, air defenders, for your heroic work!
Thank you, partners, for strengthening Ukraine’s air defense!

More on all of this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

It Is Crucial to Increase Ukraine’s Skies Defense Capabilities, We Are Doing Everything for That — the Address by the President

31 July 2024 – 19:56

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

First — the defenders of our skies. Last night alone, almost ninety “Shahed” drones were shot down. This is a serious result. I thank everyone for their precision: our mobile fire groups, fighter aircraft crews, anti-aircraft gunners, electronic warfare specialists — everyone. You have done an excellent job in the skies across many of our regions. And it is also crucial to increase Ukraine’s skies defense capabilities. We are doing everything for that. And now, if such a significant result can be achieved in the defense against the “Shahed” drones, it is an obvious proof that we can be stronger both in the defense against missiles and in the defense against Russian military aircraft. Everything depends on the weapons in the hands of our warriors. We need reliable air defense systems; we need sufficient range of our weapons. Russian terror must lose every time the occupier tries to destroy life in Ukraine. And it is not just our security. It is the security of everyone neighboring Russia. We will continue to work with our partners — to persuade them, to search for what is needed for our defense in the world and supply it to Ukraine, to cooperate in the production of necessary weapons. All this is our shared defense of everyone in Europe, of everyone in the world who values life.

Second. I held a meeting with our international experts — the Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs — on the preparation of new arrangements with partners. Security arrangements. And also, on the reconstruction of Ukraine. We are also preparing new bilateral security agreements and new arrangements at the multilateral level. Something that will strengthen Ukraine for sure. August is the time for preparations. Autumn is the time for results. I am grateful to everyone in the team who is involved. And now I would like to thank the United States for the assistance package that was announced earlier. Among other things, the package includes missiles for the NASAMS air defense systems, which are crucial since they are always in short supply. It also includes ammunition for HIMARS and Javelins. Thank you! We are working on ensuring the fastest possible logistics.

And the third thing, there was a report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. The frontline situation. First of all, the Pokrovsk direction. Our positions, our defensive actions and our potential reinforcements. I am grateful to all those who are destroying the occupier and defending our country — defending it effectively.

Glory to Ukraine!

This war started with “Kyiv will fall within 72 hours” and with “Resistance is futile, Zelensky needs to flee to Poland ASAP.”

Now, 890 days after the day of all days, we’re still standing and seeing F-16s roar over our cities. Something that was repeatedly, persistently, and unequivocally called IMPOSSIBLE by so many.

Yet, we are where we are today. Heaven sees we’ve made such a long way and broken through so many nevers… We have friends, the people of goodwill, particularly thanks to whom this is reality.

The light prevails over the dark.

Goodnight from Ukraine, the country of good hope.

I think a lot of us would want to say our congrats to @_juicefighter_ over the fact that F-16s are now defending the skies of Ukraine.

Dude, your dream has come true. Although you’re not at the controls….

I’ll be visiting Andriy’s resting place in Kyiv tomorrow, and I think many of us in town will want to come over and say hi.

Kharkiv:

A Ukrainian rescuer faced the ultimate nightmare when he was called to extinguish a fire at his own home, which had been hit by an airstrike.

In the attack on Velykyi Burluk in Kharkiv region, Inna Zamesova tragically lost her life, and her 10-year-old son suffered severe burns.

Her husband, a firefighter, was forced to confront the horrors of war on a deeply personal level as he raced to save what was left of his family home.

The State Emergency Service has released this heartbreaking footage.

Reuters has the details:

KHARKIV, Ukraine, July 31 (Reuters) – In early April, some residents of Kharkiv received a series of chilling text messages from government officials telling them to flee the city before Russian forces surrounded it.

Due to the threat of enemy encirclement, we urge the civilian population of Kharkiv leave the city by April 22,” said one alert, which bore the logo of the State Emergencies Service of Ukraine and mapped out safe escape routes on a slick infographic.

It was fake. Volodymyr Tymoshko knew immediately. He’s the police chief of Kharkiv region and would have been one of the first to find out about any official evacuation plans.

“Residents started getting these notifications en masse,” the 50-year-old told Reuters as he shared a screenshot of the alert, sent as Russian troops were massing at the border 30 km away.

“This is a psychological operation, it triggers panic. What would an average citizen think when they receive such a message?”

Disinformation and propaganda, long mainstays of war, have been digitally supercharged in the battle for Ukraine, the biggest conflict the world has seen since the advent of smartphones and social media.

Tymoshko said he received about 10 similar messages via SMS and Telegram messenger in April and early May, the weeks leading up to Russia’s offensive in northeastern Ukraine that began on May 10 and opened up a new front in the war.

A Ukrainian security official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said the Russians frequently sent large numbers of text messages from devices attached to an Orlan-10 long-range reconnaissance drone which can penetrate dozens of kilometres into Ukrainian airspace.

The devices, known as Leer-3 systems, imitate cellular base stations that phones automatically connect to in search of coverage, he added.

The phone barrage was accompanied by a social media blitz as Russian troops advanced on Kharkiv, according Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation (CCD), a branch of the national security council.

The average number of social media posts classed as disinformation about the war by Ukrainian authorities spiked to over 2,500 a day when the Kharkiv offensive began in May, up from 200 a day in March, data compiled by the CCD shows.

The CCD chief told Reuters that Ukrainian intelligence had assessed that disinformation campaigns were primarily carried out by Russia’s FSB security service and military intelligence agency, commonly known as the GRU.

Russia’s foreign ministry and the FSB didn’t respond to a request for comment on the Ukrainian assertions, while Reuters was unable to contact the GRU.
Moscow has accused Ukraine and the West of unleashing a sophisticated information war against Russia, using the West’s major media, public relations and technology assets to sow false and biased narratives about Russia and the war.

The Ukrainian security official acknowledged his country used online campaigns in an attempt to boost anti-war sentiment among Russia’s population, although he characterised this effort as “strategic communications” to spread accurate information about the conflict.

Kyiv:

All clear in Kyiv now.

Over 30 drones attacking the capital city and suburbs in two waves in the dead of night and the early day.

The largest drone assault in 2024 so far.

Red tracer rounds from anti-aircraft machine guns soaring into the night sky, searchlight beams, the rumble of explosions above the sleeping city… that’s our nights.

No casualties reported as of now.

Kurahove direction, Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Eastern Ukraine:

The Christian Science Monitor has the details:

The tiny poodle strains at its leash and barks, triggering a deafening reaction from a pack of dogs roaming the wreckage in this town in Ukraine’s embattled far east, some 10 miles from Russia’s gradually advancing forces.

“A lot of people are leaving, and let their dogs go,” explains the poodle’s owner, a retired Ukrainian military pilot in a faded orange tank top, who gives the name Oleksandr.

On their right stands the shell of an apartment block, hollowed out just days before by a single Russian “glide bomb” – a heavy Soviet-era “dumb” bomb upgraded with wings and a guidance system, and launched from a plane deep inside Russian airspace.

On their left is all that remains of a kindergarten complex, newly built before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but targeted a third time, also just days earlier.

“A lot of people lived here all their lives, and have apartments and jobs, but now our lives look like this,” says Oleksandr, as he describes how Russia’s advancing forces and use of glide bombs are triggering new departures from this Donetsk coal mining town.

He points to a nearby building entrance where a neighbor, Olena, “didn’t have a chance” when she stepped out after the first blast, only to be killed by a second – one of three deaths in the bombardment.

“Now the front is coming closer, and it’s more and more dangerous to live here,” says Oleksandr. “Now the intensity of the strikes is like never before.”

Augmenting Russia’s supply of rockets and missiles, the glide bombs, which can pack from 500 pounds to more than 3,000 pounds of explosive punch each, remain virtually unstoppable by Ukraine’s air defense systems.

To stay or to go is the decision being weighed by an increasing number of residents of Myrnohrad with heightened urgency in recent weeks.

Among the towns along Ukraine’s eastern front, Myrnohrad may be at particular risk, as it sits on an important Ukrainian supply line that Russian forces have already disrupted and – advancing west toward the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road – appear determined to control.

“I tell everyone that you should leave, especially those with children and older people,” says Yurii Tretiak, Myrnohrad’s acting military administrator, who describes a state of “stable intensity.”

“We don’t know why they don’t like our kindergartens so much,” he says, noting that a number of schools have been targeted by 12 glide bombs, especially, that hit residential areas and claimed seven lives over a recent two-week period. Earlier in July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was launching 3,500 such glide bombs each month.

“We can see that people are actually dying, so [people] decided to leave,” says Mr. Tretiak. “We hope more weapons [for Ukrainian forces] will come soon, and the front-line situation will be better.”

He steps into an abandoned Soviet-era theater, where the engine of one Russian rocket still hangs from the ceiling where it fell, two weeks earlier. Ironically, on a wall nearby remains a tile mosaic that commemorates Moscow’s former friendship with the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

“Of course, weapons can help stabilize the front. But we really hope they can fly 30 kilometers [behind Russian lines]. If used with sophistication, then this category of glide bomb won’t exist,” he says.

In late April, the United States approved a long-delayed $60.84 billion military and economic aid package, and European nations have also funneled billions of euros into weapons and ammunition for Ukraine.

But so far that has not stopped Russian forces from moving forward, if slowly. One recent 24-hour period reportedly saw 172 front-line clashes along this sector of the front alone.

More at the link.

Donetsk Oblast:

Khrustalnyi, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Kuweires airbase, outside Aleppo Syria:

Exclusive footage from @KyivPost sources shows special forces carrying out a complex strike on a Russian airbase in Syria

“The target of the attack was Russian military equipment at the Kuweires airbase, which is located east of Aleppo and occupied by Russian forces.

The released videos purports to show key moments of the attack: first, a Russian mobile EW complex is destroyed, followed by drones attacking Russian military objects at the airbase itself.

Ukrainian intelligence tells Kyiv Post that the base was also used for training and transporting foreign mercenaries to the war in Ukraine.”

Full article: https://kyivpost.com/post/36646

From The Kyiv Post:

The Kyiv Post has obtained several exclusive videos and photos showing the continuation of a special operation by the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) units to degrade Russian military assets in Syria.

According to Kyiv Post sources within the intelligence agency, the Khimik group carried out another complex strike against the positions of the Russian forces in Syria at the end of July 2024.

The target of the attack was Russian military equipment at the Kuweires airbase, which is located east of Aleppo and occupied by Russian forces.

The released videos purports to show key moments of the attack: first, a Russian mobile EW complex is destroyed, followed by drones attacking Russian military objects at the airbase itself. The strike was reportedly carried out the day after a meeting in the Kremlin between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday, July 24.

The Kuweires airbase has been controlled and used by the Russians for military purposes since 2015.

Ukrainian intelligence tells Kyiv Post that the base was also used for training and transporting foreign mercenaries to the war in Ukraine.

In early June, Kyiv Post also published exclusive footage of Ukrainian special forces attacking enemy checkpoints, strongholds, foot patrols, and columns of military equipment in the Golan Heights in Syria.

According to Kyiv Post’s HUR source, since the beginning of the year, insurgents with the support of Ukrainian fighters have delivered numerous strikes against Russian military facilities under the control of the so-called Russian Armed Forces Group in the Syrian Arab Republic.

More at the link.

Khalino airfield, Kursk, Russia:

Judging by the official statement of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces the strike on Russian aviation ammunition storages was carried out by Navy, which means Neptune missiles were likely used.

“Tonight, an attack was made on a warehouse for storing weapons and military equipment near the settlement of Kursk (Russian Federation).

The work of enemy air defense and explosions at aiming points were observed. Combat work was carried out by designated units from the forces and means of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with other components of the Defense forces.

Detailed information about the result of the damage is being clarified.”
https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/16436

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Найкраще відчуття ⛰️✨🥹🍃 #карпати #песпатрон

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

The best feeling ⛰️✨🥹🍃 #карпати#песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

18Comments

  1. 1.

    Jay

    Слава Україні! Героям слава! We will remember you JuiceFighter.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    That Tendar Tweet up top is correct – somebody wanted everyone to know. The tall building in the background with the Ukrainian flag flying is instantly recognizable as Lviv City Hall, locus of several past independence declarations (it’s not connected to the slightly darker foreground building, and is in fact 150-200 meters away.)

  5. 5.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thank you Adam!

    What is your thought on the Israeli actions of the past 48 hrs? I don’t think anyone is mourning the deaths of Haniyeh or Shukr, who have plenty of blood on their hands. However, to assassinate the top military commander of Hezbollah in Beirut, & the head of the Hamas’ political branch (w/ whom Israel has ostensibly been closing to a deal to free the remaining hostages) in Tehran, seem destined to spiral into a general regional war of much higher intensity. There is already a regional low to mid-intensity war involving Israel, the US, Hezbollah, the Houthis, & Shi’ite militia in Iraq & Syria. Sure serves Bibi’s selfish political interests, though.

    Even if Iran refrains from escalating to a high intensity clash w/ Israel at this moment, it could certainly plot payback years down the line. The recent reporting that Iran is plotting to assassinate Trump & former officials of the 1st Trump administration, read to me as attempts at delayed retribution for the assassination of Suleimani.

  6. 6.

    Martin

    Well, 130 F-16s also need at least 130 F-16 trained pilots to be useful. Guessing that’s a bottleneck.

    Any thoughts on what these will be used for? Countering Russian aircraft? Intercepting drones? Air to ground missions?

  7. 7.

    JCNZ

    @YY_Sima Qian: Why hasn’t there been a response to the assassination of Suleimani, do you think? The recent attempt on Trump would suggest it’s not too difficult.

  8. 8.

    ARoomWithAMoose

    @Martin: I believe the focus on F-16s was due to the avionics and hard points being able to carry and launch almost any at hand NATO guided ordinance (also the availability of spare parts).  Other than the handful of Mig-29s from some of the former Soviet bloc now NATO members that had full avionics refits and whatever kluged up kit they are launching HARMs from on their legacy planes, Ukraine is limited to their dwindling supply of legacy Soviet/Russian air launched guided missiles.

  10. 10.

    Martin

    @ARoomWithAMoose: No, I understood the compatibility problem. I’m just wondering where the utility value of these are. It seems like these aren’t the best suited for front-line use. Are they well suited to intercept Russian bombers? Are they allowed to operate in Russian airspace?

  11. 11.

    Jay

    @Martin:

    130 F-16’s simply replace the SU-27’s and MIG-29’s that Ukraine has lost so far, to combat, being struck on the ground, and wear and tear. This would restore the UAF back to it’s pre-invasion strength.

    Currently, the role of the F-16’s is going to be countering drones, launching SCALP missiles and a CAP inside Ukraine.

    Right now Ukrainian F-16’s can’t go toe to toe with ruZZia’s MIG’s and SU’s because they don’t have the AAM range yet.

  12. 12.

    West of the Rockies

    So in one night Russia tossed 89 drones into the dumpster.  That seems good, no?  Unless,  of course, they 5,147,000 of them.

  14. 14.

    David Fud

    Adam, I wanted to thank  you.  I have read almost all of these since you started, and I am sure that my consumption of your writing has kept me educated about the conflict.  It is really hard to comment much about this, as it is simply evil in so many different ways that it can drive one to despair.  It also seems our national security people prefer to wear Russia down and out rather than to supply Ukraine sufficiently to win, as you have noted many times.  Realpolitic A+, leader of the democratic world, F.  I appreciate you maintaining your vigil and sharing it with us.  I hope that VP Kamala’s national security folks and the Congressional quislings decide that a democratic country that has fought so hard for so long deserves our full support.  I would suppose that is not realistic based on what you have said, but a guy can unrealistically hope.  Again, thanks for sharing your point of view and expertise.  There are probably many more like me that really can’t add to the discussion, so we don’t.  And we appreciate you nonetheless.

  15. 15.

    Jay

    @ARoomWithAMoose:

    Ukraine managed to adapt SU-27’s to launch SCALP missiles, but they have only a handful of SU-27’s left. F-16’s can launch any of the NATO kit.

    The US has said they they will arm the F-16’s, so in theory, once the SABB AWACS arrive, and more F-16’s, Ukraine will be able to use drones to clear a path through ruZZian AA defenses, and F-16’s can then engage the Mig’s launching ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and glide bombs in ruZZian airspace, before their payload can be launched at Ukraine.

    If the US allows it.

  16. 16.

    Sally

    @Martin: To operate 130 F-16s they would probably require closer to 350 qualified pilots. I am sure someone can correct me if I am completely wrong. But 130 would be a good start. I think I read somewhere that they have about 6. The first bottleneck is the training schools, which have contracts to train other nationals. Whom I would push to the end of the queue, and train any that UA can send. They don’t have many spares at the moment, sadly.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    Andrii Borysovych Pilshchykov (Ukrainian: Андрій Борисович Пільщиков; 3 February 1993[3][4] – 25 August 2023) was a Ukrainian fighter pilot with the call sign “Juice” (Джус) and a captain[5] in the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade[6] of the Ukrainian Air Force.[7][1][2] He was qualified as a 2nd Class pilot[8] and flew Mikoyan MiG-29s during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[9][10] Pilshchykov was awarded the Order for Courage, 3rd class, in May 2022, and posthumously promoted to the rank of major.[4]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrii_Pilshchykov

    After Pilshchykov died, “Stalker”, Andrii’s mentor from the “Civil Air Patrol”, revealed[4] the origin of the “Ghost of Kyiv” myth:
    “Stalker” said that the “Ghosts of Kyiv” was Andrii’s idea.

    “The commanders approved this idea as trolling the Russians, who said they had destroyed all the aviation on the first day of the war. And Andrii, who had such a caustic trolling style, said: “And here we are on the very planes that they destroyed, which are not there – we are fighting them so much. And who are we? Ghosts!” says “Stalker”.

    — Volodymyr B., Born for the sky: Andrii “Juice” Pilshchykov obituary, Full scale war
    It was also revealed that it was Pilshchykov in the photo initially posted by Poroshenko as a photo of “Ghost of Kyiv”:

Comments are closed.