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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

T R E 4 5 O N

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

Wait, what?

The willow is too close to the house.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

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I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

Come on, man.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

People are weird.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 1,467: It’s Been a Month Worth of Mondays on Monday

War for Ukraine Day 1,467: It’s Been a Month Worth of Mondays on Monday

by Adam L Silverman|  March 2, 202610:08 pm| 29 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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A modified panel from the Tin Tin comics. Tin Tin is on the left. He is looking at the Captain who is sitting at the bar. There is a drink at the Captain's right elbow and Tin Tin's dog is sniffing it. The Captain's word bubble says "What a year, huh?" Tin Tin replies: "Captain, it's only the 3rd of January."

Another long horrible day, so I’m just going to work through the basics again.

#closethesky :-)

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:33 AM

It’s funny because it’s true.

Day 1466 of my 3 day war. It’s going so well that all I can send Iran are thoughts & prayers and even the Belgium military are not afraid to board my ships. I didn’t even know they had one!

I remain a master strategist.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 2:58 AM

It’s also funny because it’s true.

Ukraine’s Paralympic team has been banned from using their parade uniform, which features a map of Ukraine, at the 2026 Winter Paralympics!

The International Paralympic Committee ruled the uniform “political” and prohibited the team from wearing it.

What a freaking circus!

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 12:05 PM

This is true and it is NOT funny.

President Zelenskyy attended an Iftar dinner and presented Ukrainian Muslim service members with awards. Video below, write up after the jump.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Took Part in an Iftar and Presented State Awards to Muslim Warriors

2 March 2026 – 21:30

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in an iftar – the evening meal held during the holy month of Ramadan – together with Ukrainian warriors who practice Islam, leaders of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, representatives of the Muslim community and clergy, and heads of foreign diplomatic missions.

The Head of State thanked all the defenders present, their brothers- and sisters-in-arms for defending Ukraine and Ukrainians, strengthening our country, and being part of the shared strength of an independent Ukraine.

The President awarded Ukrainian Muslim warriors the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, V class; the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, III class; the Order “For Courage,” III class; and the Order of Danylo Halytskyi, as well as the medals “For Military Service to Ukraine” and “To the Defender of the Motherland.”

“Ukraine has endured in this war and is able to defend itself precisely because it is millions of people who did not break, did not betray Ukraine, and simply did not betray human dignity,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The President emphasized that Ukraine defends the interests of the entire Ukrainian people – its citizens of all nationalities and all faiths, from all parts of our large country: from Kyiv to Crimea, from Zakarpattia to the Donetsk region – and will certainly not forget its people in occupation and captivity.

“We remember all our lands, every community in Ukraine – our East, Donbas, our Crimea. And we will give Russia nothing that is Ukrainian – this is our principled position. And it is not just someone’s position in Ukraine, not just the state’s or only the state’s, but truly the position of millions of people,” he said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope that Ukraine’s defense and diplomacy will be able to bring the country closer to real peace and guaranteed security.

“For the thirteenth Ramadan in a row, the Muslim community of Ukraine and the Crimean Tatar people are marking it under difficult conditions – under Russian aggression and Russian strikes. We very much hope that next year Ramadan will be celebrated in peace. And this is what we wish for all peoples who are now in danger – in war,” the President noted.

The Head of State also stressed that it is no coincidence Moscow and the Iranian regime were so close – they are united by a lack of respect for people. That is why, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it is important to be effective in defending against such regimes so that life prevails.

Leader of the Crimean Tatar people Mustafa Dzhemilev added that the indigenous people of Crimea maintain close contacts with Crimean Tatars in the temporarily occupied Crimean peninsula, especially activists and members of the Mejlis and regional mejlises.

“According to information we receive from various sources, more than 90 percent – and by other estimates about 95–96 percent – of the indigenous people of Crimea, despite fierce Russian propaganda and punitive measures by the occupiers, remain loyal to their country and continue to pray for the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Mustafa Dzhemilev said.

First Lady Zelenska took part in the Terminology of Barrier-Free Communication today.

Olena Zelenska Took Part in the Presentation of the State Standard of Barrier-Free Language

2 March 2026 – 19:03

First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska took part in the presentation of the state standard of barrier-free language “Terminology of Barrier-Free Communication.” Government officials, international experts, educators, and representatives of civil society also attended the event.

The document contains a list of 100 words to be removed from official use. They concern the rights and opportunities of people with disabilities or neurodivergence, veterans, parents with children, and others who face prejudice.

The creation of this standard is part of the “Without Barriers” initiative implemented under the patronage of Olena Zelenska. The document is the result of a year of work by an expert group that included linguists, lawyers, and civil society activists. Experts from the Council of Europe, UNESCO, and the “Recovery for All” (RFA) project also contributed to its development.

“Someone says ‘unemployed’ or ‘homeless,’ and the label sounds final. But if we say ‘a person without a home,’ ‘a person without a job,’ it becomes clear we are speaking about circumstances that can and must change. Language is part of the dignity of both sides: the one who speaks and the one being spoken about. That is why it is time to move away from the seemingly familiar ‘deaf-mute interpreter,’ because in fact it is a ‘sign language interpreter’ – with a focus and respect for the language and those who use it,” the First Lady noted.

The approved terminology will become mandatory for official documentation, legal and academic literature, education, and public administration. The standard is also recommended for use in media and public communications.

The presentation launches an educational and informational program on non-discriminatory language, which will unite state institutions, communities, experts, civil society, the veteran community, and opinion leaders and will be implemented by the National Agency of Ukraine on Civil Service within the “State Without Barriers” project.

“Language is the very first form of respect and attention. If there is no respect in words, there will be none in actions. And now, by changing vocabulary to barrier-free language, we are not simply formally changing the dictionary: we want to change society’s ‘optics.’ A person and their dignity must always come first – in definitions, in the decisions of every official, of the entire state,” the First Lady emphasized.

Georgia:

Day 460 of daily, uninterrupted, nationwide protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 12:50 PM

Georgia’s democratic opposition parties have formed an alliance, agreeing on a joint strategy to defeat the autocratic regime and restore the country’s Euro-Atlantic course.

They say they will fight “until political prisoners are freed and free, fair elections are secured.”

📷 Publika

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:33 AM

JUST IN: Opposition Alliance launched in Georgia.

Today, Georgian democratic parties form Oppostion Alliance and agree on a joint strategy for victory, we well as rules of cooperation.

1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

The Alliance aims to liberate Georgia from the autocratic regime of Bidzina Ivanishvili, to restore the country’s Euro-Atlantic course and, therefore, to save Georgia’s national independence and statehood.

2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

The member parties of the Alliance are: Ahali, Girchi – More Freedom, Droa, European Georgia, National Democratic Party, United National Movement, Freedom Square, Strategy Agmashenebeli, and the Federalists.

3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

The Opposition Alliance agreed that there’s an ongoing existential struggle over Georgia’s historical and civilizational choice, which will decide which side of the “Iron Curtain” the Georgian people will find themselves on for the next decades.

4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

The strategic goal of the Opposition Alliance is to mobilize the vast majority of society for peaceful protest and dismantling the regime.

The main principles of the agreement are:

5/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

• Unity without uniformity: the parties maintain their ideological identity, but agree on a unified communication and protest strategy;

• Democratic alternative: the Alliance agrees that only a democratic alternative focused on the interests of citizens will defeat the autocratic regime;

6/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

• Ways to achieve the goal: expand the protest, strengthen international pressure and offer a democratic, credible alternative to the Georgian people;

7/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

• Code of conduct and responsibility: the most important part of the document is the code of conduct, which regulates the rules of cooperation between the signatory parties to ensure strong unity;

8/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

The parties recognize each other as equal partners and agree that coordinated action to achieve a common goal is a strategic necessity.

The Opposition Alliance swears to fight until the end — until the release of political prisoners and the achievement of free and fair elections.

9/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

The Alliance representatives state that doors are open for other parties as well, including Lelo, which has been preferring an individual approach.

10/10.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:40 AM

Moldova:

OTD in 1992 the Transnistra War started. “Pro Russian” forces were forced to have a ceasefire to stop NATO continuing its move eastward that hadn’t started yet.

We’ve occupied a part of Moldova ever since. Your inaction was noted..

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 3:12 AM

By end of 2002 all Russian soldiers were supposed to have been removed. They have not been.

But you can believe our promises about Ukraine now.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 3:12 AM

It was in Moldova that Girkin/Strelkov got his start leading a company of Black Sea Cossacks. The Donbas operations in 2013 leading to the little green men and initial invasion of 2014 were patterned after what the Russians did in Moldova.

Hungary:

A Reality Check for Orbán about The “Druzhba” Pipeline Strike❕️

​Hungary remains “skeptical” about the damage dealt to the Druzhba pipeline during the Russian strike on January 27.

1/n

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

However, Bloomberg has released satellite imagery that tells a different story: the main reservoir at the Brody Pumping Station is empty. Pumping is currently impossible due to equipment failure and the extreme risk of leaks.

2/n

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

This material is for Orbán, who seem to be playing dumb.

​The Timeline of the Attack 🔽

​The Strike: On the morning of January 28, a fire was reported at the Brody facility following a Russian strike. The State Emergency Service confirmed an infrastructure hit,

3/n

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

and local residents were warned to stay indoors and close their windows due to toxic air pollution.

The Target: Russian drones targeted the main reservoir at Brody. This is the largest oil storage tank in Europe, measuring 75 meters in diameter. inferno took 10 days to extinguish.

4/n

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

Not a Secret: Even Kremlin propaganda outlets reported on it. “Tsargrad TV” ran news segments about a fire near Lviv that burned for three days. If Orbán wanted the truth, they could have found it in the news weeks ago. Even if they prefer to get their news from Russian propaganda sources.

5/n

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

The Emergency Response 🔽

​Draining Under Fire: In the heat of the drone attack, an emergency decision was made to drain the oil while the reservoir was still burning. There was a massive risk of the structure collapsing, which would have caused a catastrophic spill.

​6/n

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

The Cost of Prevention: Pumping out scalding fuel caused an emergency shutdown of the pumping units, but it prevented a total environmental disaster. Had the fuel stayed, the fire would have raged for another 10 days.

​7/n

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

Heroism on the Ground: “Employees risked their lives during the ongoing attack to empty the tank via pipeline. Had it ruptured, it would have been the largest environmental disaster in the region’s history,” said Koretskyi.

​8/n

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

The Damage Assessment 🔽

​Beyond the main reservoir, the strike destroyed transformers, electrical cabling, and critical leak-detection systems. Damage assessments are ongoing. Satellite data from NASA FIRMS (tracks thermal signatures) confirmed the fire on Jan 28. A Planet Labs img from Feb 21

9/n

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

published by Bloomberg, clearly shows the empty, snow-covered reservoir.

A proposal was floated for a “fact-finding mission” to Ukraine. Orbán enthusiastically supported the idea, insisting that Hungarian and Slovak representatives be included.

10/n

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

By all means, go! In Ukraine, the facts fall from the sky every day in the form of Russian missiles and drones. Come and see for yourself, coward.

Bloomberg material: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

11/end

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:40 AM

France:

France is increasing its nuclear arsenal, – Macron

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:17 AM

🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧 France, Germany, and the United Kingdom will jointly work on developing long-range missiles, – Macron.

[image or embed]

— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 11:27 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported that over the past three months, Russia has lost nearly 93,000 soldiers and a vast amount of equipment. Furthermore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have regained control over more territory than the enemy managed to seize.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 10:10 AM

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone operators are intercepting Shahed kamikaze drones using STING systems produced by @wildhornets.bsky.social

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:41 AM

⚡️⚡️Ukraine’s General Staff claims regarding overnight strikes on enemy facilities:

▪️ Crimea: Long-range space communications center (Vityne) and “Podlyot-K1” radar near Vynohradne reportedly hit on the night of March 2

▪️ Luhansk region: “Kasta-2E2” (Liubyme) and “Yastreb A-V” (Topoli) radars struck

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:31 AM

The moment of the shooting down of the Russian Shahed by the gunner of a Ukrainian “anti-drone” Yak-52 aircraft.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 2:40 AM

According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Russia is already deploying the new “Izdeliye-30” subsonic missile against Ukraine.

war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/page-prod…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:47 AM

Specifications: range – approximately 1,500 km, warhead – up to 800 kg, speed – 600-800 km/h. It is reported that the missile is less vulnerable to electronic warfare and is considered a more cost-effective alternative to the Kh-101 for Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:47 AM

Kharkiv:

From 4:25 local time in Ukraine/9:25 PM EST:

More explosions in Kharkiv ‼️ air defense is active.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 9:13 PM

Russia struck an apartment building in Kharkiv with a Molniya drone.

A 12-year-old boy suffered a concussion, and a 10-year-old girl and a woman were treated for acute stress reaction.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 12:23 PM

Pokrovsk:

In the Pokrovsk community of Dnipropetrovsk region, a 55‑year‑old man was killed in Russian attack.

Rescuers pulled him from the rubble of a destroyed house. Two private homes were completely destroyed, and four more were damaged.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:48 AM

I’m pretty sure Pokrovsk is in Donetsk Oblast, but given how many place names get repeated in different parts of Ukraine, I would not be surprised if there’s also a Pokrovsk in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Or if it crosses the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

Chernihiv Oblast:

In the Chernihiv region, a woman born in 1937 was killed in a Russian attack.
During the night, a Russian drone struck a residential building in one of the villages of the Koriukiv district.

Why, just why? Poor elderly lady.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:52 AM

Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast:

This morning, Russian forces struck Kramatorsk – three people were killed, local authorities report‼️

Journalist Serhiy Horbatenko shows the aftermath of the attack. Reports suggest the city was shelled with artillery.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:58 AM

Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Two people were killed and 11 injured in a russian strike on Druzhkivka in the Donetsk region, reported regional governor Filashkin‼️

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 8:03 AM

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, a russian drone struck a commuter train while it was in motion. One person was killed and seven others injured, Deputy Prime Minister Kuleba reported‼️

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 8:26 AM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russia:

The USF, in coordination with the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, destroyed a Russian “Kasta” radar system on March 1 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 4:02 AM

Not so Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Meanwhile, nine settlements in the Oleksandrivsk direction have already been liberated by Air Assault Forces units.
The video has subtitles.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 3:35 PM

The Komi Republic, Russia:

Today in the Komi Republic of Russia, in the city of Ukhta, a fire broke out at the Ukhta Oil Refinery that belongs to Lukoil.

🔥😎

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:29 AM

🔥🛢️Just now. Russian Lukoil oil refinery in Ukhta, 1700km from the frontline, is under drone attack! Oil refinery in Ukhta has the capacity of 4,2mln tons per year.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 2:25 AM

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Yesterday, drones operated by the SSU, struck infrastructure at the port of Novorossiysk. Reportedly this objects were targeted:

• Russian naval vessels,
• a 30N6E2 radar of the S-300PMU-2,
• a Pantsir-S2,
• six of seven oil loading berths at the Sheskharis oil terminal.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:24 AM

P.S: Hopefully soon we will see some confirmations and aftermath of this large scale attack.

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 7:24 AM

Fascist Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which was completely forced out of its base in Sevastopol in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea in 2024, is no longer safe even in its base in Novorossiysk in SW fascist Russia.

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 6:56 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

🤩💐 Oh, my mommy! It’s March 1st! Spring has finally arrived! The calendar doesn’t lie, and the calendar is serious!
It’s time to buy some new jewelry! Kitty Bulochka is on duty at the Soborka and will advise you on the best options! 😻
Odesa 🇺🇦

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:16 AM

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    29Comments

    1. 1.

      Amy!

      March 2, 2026 at 10:37 pm

      Hi, Adam. This may be a crossing of the streams, and if so I apologize and you can zap this comment.

      I saw a report out of Big Golden Daddy’s Persian Adventure Stories suggesting that the US is deploying an anti-drone system called LUCAS, which is apparently a sort of drone-era fighter aircraft (if I understood the description correctly, it attacks and destroys the opponent’s drones, by mutual destruction if need be). It would make sense that if it’s designed to destroy itself, it would need to be low-cost, right? Is it true (do you know?) that the US has such a system? It’s the first that I’ve heard of it.

      And if it exists (to get to the stream crossing) why in the [redacted for sensitive ears] would the US not have already been equipping Ukraine with it any time in the past four years? I mean, it sounds as if it’s something developed specifically to deal with the nightly ‘mare that life has become there due to swarms of cheap buzz bombs. Hell, just deliver enough to let Ukrainians guard major energy facilities (and meanwhile to study the tech and figure out how to make it even cheaper and faster).

      And another question: your reports regularly note that Ukrainians are regaining ground now (phrased as regaining more than they’ve lost, so I gather that there’s actually movement in both directions on what have become somewhat static lines). I heard (a little less than four years ago now) that Putin and Russia, failing in that initial push, had already lost the war, even if they could continue the war until exhaustion stopped them. Is this evidence of a threshold being crossed? Has the tide turned? Gah, clichés: will the boys be home by Christmas? Seriously, is this an indicator that the outcome of the war is, in the end Ukrainian victory? I’m not sure that you accept the premise that, failing to win an overwhelming victory, Russia cannot win an attempted occupation against a hostile population, but I found the argument compelling, which made the past three and three quarters years all the more tragic. Do you have an opinion on that score that you’re willing to share?

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Jay

      March 2, 2026 at 10:46 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Gin & Tonic

      March 2, 2026 at 10:46 pm

      Yes, there are similar or identical place names, just as there is a Springfield in both Massachusetts and Illinois. Pokrovsk is in Donetsk Oblast, but doesn’t straddle the border. Pokrovs’ke is in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, about 15-20 miles away; the video clip from Kate is watermarked by the Dnipropetrovsk emergency services, so that’s the town she is referring to.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Adam L Silverman

      March 2, 2026 at 10:49 pm

      @Amy!: To answer the first question, yes, we have something called LUCAS: Low Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System. Here’s the write up on it from the US Army.

      I’ll answer the second question at the beginning of tomorrow night’s update.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Adam L Silverman

      March 2, 2026 at 10:50 pm

      @Gin & Tonic: Thanks!

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Chetan R Murthy

      March 2, 2026 at 10:57 pm

      superfluous

      Reply
    7. 7.

      AlaskaReader

      March 2, 2026 at 11:00 pm

      Thanks Adam

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Adam L Silverman

      March 2, 2026 at 11:14 pm

      @AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Eolirin

      March 2, 2026 at 11:18 pm

      @Amy!: Just as an extra bit of context, LUCAS is effectively brand new, so we haven’t been providing it to the Ukrainians because it hasn’t existed. I mean, Trump may not provide it either, but it’s not like we’ve been sitting on this for years or anything.

      And at this point what the Ukrainians can get from their own domestic production is quite possibly superior anyway.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Jay

      March 2, 2026 at 11:20 pm

      @Amy!:

      So, LUCAS is the Low-cost Uncrewed (Unmanned) Combat Attack System.

      Basically, it’s an oversized or enlarged Shaheed or Geran “clone”.

      As it’s name suggests, it’s cheaper than most US Cruise Missiles and other suicide drones.

      It costs, $35k, vs a Tomahawk at $3.1 million, or a Switchblade at $120k.

      It carries a larger warhead than the Shaheed or Geran drones, has greater range, but the key differences, are it has high quality multispectral cameras, so the operator can split screen or switch between camera’s, which render’s “hiding” from the drone, very difficult, and the drone operator communicates with the drone by a digital link via Starlink. So a guy sitting in a cubicle in Nevada, has a real time, digital link to the drone and it’s controls, anywhere on the globe.

      It’s not an anti-drone system, per se, it can be used to kill drone teams, if you can find them, and it up’s the ability to find them.

      It’s not a drone interceptor.

      The latest model of the ruZZian Geran, also used Starlink, until it was shut down, but didn’t have the high quality camera’s, does have a bigger warhead, and uses a jet engine for higher speeds.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Westyny

      March 2, 2026 at 11:41 pm

      Thank you, Adam.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Adam L Silverman

      March 2, 2026 at 11:42 pm

      @Westyny: You’re welcome.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      YY_Sima Qian

      March 2, 2026 at 11:45 pm

      One thing is sure, high oil & gas prices because Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, & started hitting Saudi oil terminals & Qatari gas terminals, will benefit Putin, giving the latter greater financial resources to wage his war on Ukraine. Cut off of ME hydrocarbon shipments could also force India to resume purchasing Russian oil, & Japan/SK to look at Russian gas again.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      wjca

      March 2, 2026 at 11:46 pm

      @Amy!: Ukrainians are regaining ground now (phrased as regaining more than they’ve lost),…. Is this evidence of a threshold being crossed?

      One would like to believe that we’re seeing the “gradually” part of “gradually, and then suddenly.”

      Hope, because I don’t really know enough to have an informed opinion.  But from various stuff that Adam has mentioned this year, there would appear to be a couple of other straws in the wind. Fingers crossed.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Martin

      March 3, 2026 at 12:04 am

      @Jay: It’s absurd that a Switchblade costs $120K.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Traveller

      March 3, 2026 at 12:07 am

      Of some historical interest maybe…but last evening I was cleaning up a bunch of bookmarks and stumbled upon this February 27, 2022 review of Mr Putin and his War against Ukraine…of interest was how spot on this was and how little has changed over the past 4 years, (if you have a moment, here it is):

      Putin’s end goal isn’t Ukraine but western civilization – the hatred for which he lapped up in the black milk he drank from the KGB’s teat

      theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-power

      One would expect some change, wouldn’t one?!? Well, maybe not. Best Wishes, Traveller

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Martin

      March 3, 2026 at 12:09 am

      Not sure how accurate this is. Looking for confirmation:

      A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that Pres. Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.

      From Saturday morning through Monday night, more than 110 similar complaints about commanders in every branch of the military had been logged by the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF).

      The complaints came from more than 40 different units spread across at least 30 military installations, the MRFF told me Monday night.

      Three holy wars walk into a bar…

      Reply
    18. 18.

      YY_Sima Qian

      March 3, 2026 at 12:31 am

      @Martin: Wow..

      The [white] religious fundamentalists in the US military really feel unleashed in the age of MAGA.

      The number of complaints filed at least shows that may among the rank & file have not yet acquiesced to the millenarian BS.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      YY_Sima Qian

      March 3, 2026 at 1:00 am

      Consulting on drone defense could be another income stream for Ukraine (gift link to WSJ article below):

      Gulf States in Race Against Time to Repel Iran’s Onslaught
      Only so many air-defense interceptors are available to knock down an almost limitless number of drones
      By Yaroslav Trofimov
      Updated March 2, 2026 at 9:24 pm ET
      Persian Gulf nations targeted by Iran have, so far, managed to limit the damage by deploying sophisticated U.S.-made air defenses against the hundreds of drones and missiles that have rained on their cities.
      With costly interceptors and radar, all integrated with the U.S. military, the oil-rich Gulf Arab states have fielded some of the most advanced air defenses in the world, despite their small populations and militaries.
      A crucial variable in this war, however, is whether these monarchies start running out of interceptors before the Iranian regime runs out of projectiles.
      At current burn rates, it could be very soon.
      “The intensity of interceptor usage that we have seen over the last couple of days can’t be maintained for more than another week—probably a couple of days at most, and then they will feel the pain of interceptor shortage,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the University of Oslo.
      …

      The Gulf States, in true petro-monarchy fashion, have been firing off high end Patriot missiles against low end Shahed drones.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      wjca

      March 3, 2026 at 1:05 am

      @Martin: A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that Pres. Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.

      I don’t know any more than what you shared here.  But my instant reaction was: Air Force.

      The US Air Force Academy has really become a hot bed of fundamentalist Christian, I think the right word is propaganda, the past few decades — that is, since well before MAGA.  In a military academy, even more than in other colleges, what students hear about non-academic subjects from their teachers, especially multiple teachers, really gets internalized.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Jay

      March 3, 2026 at 1:38 am

      @Martin:

       

      @YY_Sima Qian:

       

      @wjca:

      Just another US “Crusade”,……..nothing to see here.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Aziz, light!

      March 3, 2026 at 1:41 am

      “God’s plan” for humanity is a mass delusion that a sane society would treat in mental hospitals.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Martin

      March 3, 2026 at 1:49 am

      @wjca: XD. Mine too. Like, that’s fucking Colorado Springs! Well before MAGA – well before GWOT.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      exbarrowboy

      March 3, 2026 at 2:32 am

      I read just about all of Adam’s posts though I rarely have anything useful to say here.  I’m prompted by the report from Kramatorsk to note that the Ukrainian rescue dog that was taken in by my brother back in the UK came from Kramatorsk,  reportedly saved after his owner was killed.  The people there have surely suffered enough.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      YY_Sima Qian

      March 3, 2026 at 3:48 am

      w/ the Russian invasion of Ukraine still ongoing, & regional war in the Persian Gulf escalation, not to mention other fires burning across the world, Chinese makers of dual use products that go into suicide drones are doing brisk business (click through the link to X post for screen caps of the posts on Chinese social media):

      tphuang @tphuang

      Yes, demand for suicide drones is very high. In fact, one of many Chinese factories making low speed engine for drones is fully booked until Nov.

      This one produces 30k engines per day. In case you are wondering China’s industrial power looks like. One of many suppliers.

      These are not high end engines, but good enough to fly to their destination 1 time & are super cheap + easy to make.

      The small engines are made most of plastic, which reduces weight & radar signature, so designed entirely for single use.

      The original post on Chinese social media translated into English:

      Dusk is the Gentlest
      9 hours ago Chongqing

      Please US and Iran, stop fighting!!!
      On the first day of the new year, at a meeting, it was said that orders are scheduled until November, everyone is scared silly. Three production lines are running simultaneously, 12 hours a day with two shifts, the workers can’t hold on anymore.
      Please stop fighting

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Martin

      March 3, 2026 at 4:03 am

      Reports are that Gulf states are asking the US for munitions to replenish their interceptors, and being told ‘no’.

      “But the former US official familiar with conversations in the administration told MEE that Gulf states would be left wanting if they expect new supplies of interceptors.

      “Whatever munitions were produced in the last couple of months, we have shot several years’ worth of production in the last few days,” the former official said.”

      UAE said they’ve shot down about 900 drones and cruise missiles in the last few days. Any bets on whether Iran can make Shaheeds faster than we can make interceptors?  Google tells me we make about 600 Patriots and 400 THAADs per year. Guessing we need to do an outstanding job of destroying every Shaheed plant and stockpile.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

      March 3, 2026 at 7:32 am

      Thank you Adam. I hope Ukraine wrings everything it can get in return for its drone expertise.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      Halteclere

      March 3, 2026 at 8:04 am

      Sounds to me like the world-wide surplus of Patriot missiles is being shot up in the gulf states. This Iran thing is one win after another for Russia, and Ukraine will further suffer because of it.

      Besides the Christian fundamentals who have been itching for a big war in the mid-east for decades to fulfil their prophesy, I dont see what “win” the US might get from this

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Paul in KY

      March 3, 2026 at 11:44 am

      @Martin: Hey now…poor dude was up for promotion.

      Reply

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