One of our Bj peeps, Kent, suggested that we consider adding Marie Glusenkamp Perez (WA-03) to our Winnable House Races in Purple Districts thermometer. I did some research and I wasn’t convinced – until I found some information that was published just yesterday in a local paper.
Unless you customize the amounts, donations to this thermometer will now be split 7 ways.
Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)
Sharice Davids (KS-03)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02)
Elaine Luria (VA-02)
Susan Wild (PA-07)
Josh Riley (NY-19)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03)
Winnable House Races Purple Districts
Kent:
I would add Marie Gluesenkamp Perez here in the WA-3rd. The incumbent GOP-er Jaime Herrera Beutler went down to a rabid Q-Anon Trumper type. So I think the seat is winnable, especially in light of Dobbs. And Marie is a really good candidate for this district.
The most recent polling has Joe Kent leading by +4 The one before that had Marie leading by +2. It was a Trump +4 district in 2020.
After Jaime Herrera Beutler was defeated in the primary it shifted from solid Republican to leans Republican by Cooks.
She is running very hard on Dobbs and calling out Kent for his MAGA extremism, especially on abortion. Other than Dobbs she is running more or less as a blue collar Democrat which suits this district.
It will be an uphill battle. But it is winnable I think. We shall see.
Local reporting that I found today:
A poll published by the Northwest Progressive Institute shows Democratic congressional hopeful Marie Glusenkamp Perez trailing Donald Trump-endorsed Republican Joe Kent by just three percentage points in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.
In a poll of 834 likely District 3 voters surveyed Sept. 19-20, 44% said they would vote for Glusenkamp Perez and 47% said they would vote for Kent.
Nine percent said they were unsure.
Glusenkamp Perez’s campaign represents one of the strongest Democratic contenders for an upset victory in the 2022 midterm elections, as the 3rd Congressional District hasn’t been won by a Democrat since 2008 when Brian Baird defeated Republican Michael Delavar.
More about her here: Marie for Congress
Reminder: all of the targeted fundraising thermometers for this fall are in the sidebar, and also at the link below. Besides this one, there are thermometers for the AZ Executives (Firewall) and one for Charlie Crist so we can give DeSantis the boot, and make him a one-term governor and a zero-term president!
All Targeted Fundraising Thermometers
Totally open thread!
H.E.Wolf
OMG, WA-03! Go Dems!!
H.E.Wolf
https://marieforcongress.com/
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: Thank you! I added the link up top.
H.E.Wolf
As a former coveralls-at-work employee (complete with embroidered name on pocket), I appreciated the photo on Perez’s campaign website.
H.E.Wolf
@WaterGirl:
Much obliged to you! And now I’ve got to sign off and attend a (non-coverall’d) meeting…
FastEdD
Done! In an amount divisible by seven. I’m a retired math teacher, I know how to do that.
WaterGirl
@FastEdD: Ha!
WaterGirl
If anyone wants to make the case for someone who should be added to this list, go for it!
Princess
@WaterGirl: How about a case for removing someone? I read yesterday that the GOP is giving up on taking Kaptur’s seat because their candidate has too many problems. Here’s a source:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/house-gop-cuts-loose-candidate-who-misled-about-military-service-00058406
Maybe our money would be better spent on a different seat.
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: Working up a case for Brittany Pedersen, CO’s CD-7. Yes, CO is considered a “blue” state, but…Loren Boebert ring a bell for anyone?
Anyway, let’s keep it in mind – right now, I’m a bit distracted by the fact that Roxy has been horking all morning with nothing to show for it up until a little while ago – now I’m seeing little shards of bone…
RaflW
@Princess: According to OpenSecrets Kaptur has raised $1.83M. That’s $600K more than she raised in 2020. For a hotly contested seat, under $2M is not great (dang, I hate how xpensive these things have become). But if her opponent really is being cut loose, I’d agree that a narrowly targeted Juice list could drop her.
RaflW
@Miss Bianca: CO-7 is a D+7 seat. Cook has it as likely Dem. I’m all for boosting CO’s role as a purple-to-blue state, but I think Petterson is likely getting what she needs.
(I on the other hand, made a case several days about about Yadira Caraveo. I just attended a Women of Color DCCC online fundraiser that included Ms. C. I think she has a shot. CO-08 is PVI-even, but rated tossup-Republican. Eeep.)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Is that Perlmutter’s seat? His victories were never huge, as I recall?
WaterGirl
@Princess: I would probably argue both sides of that in a debate, because not a soul has voted yet,
But I did wonder about the same thing about Marcy Kaptur after hearing the news.
What do the rest of you think?
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: I thought there was no chance of replacing Boebert? Or am I confusing that with MTG?
edit: oh, maybe you are saying the R running in CO-07 is like Boebert?
Jackie
@Princess: He had a press conference today claiming his service record is “classified.” 🙄
https://www.rawstory.com/jr-majewski/
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: I just noticed the note about Roxy. I had first read it as barking, no big deal.
Shards of bone, yeah, that’s not good.
WaterGirl
@RaflW: Which thread was that in? Do you recall? I have been making my way through all the suggestions, but maybe I missed that.
edit: never mind, I just found the thread. A week ago Thursday. I think I hadn’t checked back far enough for nominations.
WaterGirl
From RaflW (bringing forward from last week)
More from RaflW:
WaterGirl
Mathguy from last week:
More info from Geminid:
Additional info from mar:
More on Bacon from mvr:
More Mathguy:
WaterGirl
Gravie from last week:
And from Formerly Disgruntled in Oregon:
Ah, I see that I had questions in that thread that I don’t think were answered:
la caterina
I feel like we gotta do everything we can to keep control of the House. Since I gave $25 to Charlie Crist, it’s only fair that I should give $25 each to these House candidates. Trusting your picks, WaterGirl!
WaterGirl
More on Yadira Caraveo from RaflQ from last week.
WaterGirl
James E Powell from last week:
WaterGirl
This was from BlueGuitarist, who I wrote to, but I don’t think he has replied yet:
WaterGirl
Geminid from last week:
WaterGirl
Yikes, I must have completely forgotten to go back and mine that thread for suggestions! At least they are all here now in one place.
Thoughts?
WaterGirl
Nominations:
Yadira Caraveo, CO-08
Brittany Pedersen, CO’-07
Angie Craig, MN-02
Tony Vargas, NE-02
Jamie McLeod-Skinner, OR-05
My question on these 3 CA races is this: I would guess that all of these are already rolling in money. Is that a good guess?
CA-27 – D+4 – Rematch of 2020. Christy Smith lost to Garcia by 333 votes out of 338,943.
CA-40 – R+2 – Dr. Asif Mahmood against Young Kim.
CA-45
Miss Bianca
@RaflW: Let’s just say, as a citizen of CD-3 who has just been re-districted out of CD-7, that I wished I shared your confidence that there’s nothing to worry about.
Bupalos
@Princess: Pulling the ad buy now doesn’t mean they’re giving up on the seat or even unlikely to win it, or that they won’t put money into that race late.
It does mean recalibration, and probably waiting to see how the Kaptur campaign attacks.
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: he’s bad enough – a slick Aryan weasel who’s hoping that his “I served in Iraq” schtick will cover for his anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ stances
WaterGirl
@la caterina: Thank you!
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: wondering what to do. Vet not in the office today. Not sure trying to induce her with anything to throw up more is a good idea. :(
WaterGirl
@Bupalos: That makes me lean strongly toward leaving Marcy Kaptur in, but of course anyone who thinks that’s no longer the best bet could customize amounts and leave Marcy out.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: Is there an emergency vet you can call for advice? I don’t think this is a good “wait and see” candidate on a Friday afternoon.
Kent
Based from what I have seen, Marie Glusenkamp Perez has been all over the district and is campaigning pretty relentlessly. She’s a Reed College econ grad but she and her husband own a mechanic garage and she is really doing the blue collar thing. Photo ops driving around their farm on ATVs, always in boots, etc. Joe Kent seems to be pretty absent (he’s not from here anyway) and seems to basically be phoning it in by basically just going on right wing media.
We shall see. It kind of depends on how riled up the rural MAGAts are in November compared to suburban Vancouverites who care about Dobbs and not electing an Trumpy election denier. But Marie is a much better candidate than any of the previous ones we have had. At least for this district.
Being in the WA-3rd is sort of like living in TX. You keep thinking that demographics is eventually going to flip it blue. But it never quite happens. The blue areas are growing much faster than the red areas so it seems inevitable. But the when is the big question.
WaterGirl
@Kent: Marie is in the list – fingers crossed!
WaterGirl
Everybody, please weigh in if you have opinions on any of the nominations I brought forward into the comments on this post.
Or suggest someone else who you think would be a good strategic investment.
dnfree
I just donated and within 2 minutes I got a text from Josh Riley informing me that I had signed up to receive texts. YES, I know I can text Stop and I did, but it’s still annoying. I wish there were some way on ActBlue to specify no texts from anyone ever.
dnfree
@FastEdD: me too (not a math teacher, just a math major).
jnfr
Dropped some in. Go Blue!
FastEdD
@WaterGirl: I live in CA-40. We worked for years to flip it and we elected the marvelous Katie Porter. She has now been redistricted out and we are an R+2. We are now stuck with Young Kim, a one term incumbent R whose slogan is “Lower Gas Prices!” As if a single R House rep could accomplish that. Grrr. I’m giving money and working for Asif Mahmood, but I fear he’s not such a good candidate, never been in elective office before. National R’s are now running negative ads against him, and I doubt he is awash in money.
WaterGirl
@dnfree: Agreed!
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: I just called my neighbor who’s a vet – she advised me to try feeding her a little bread to encase whatever is trying to come up. Off to the grocery store….
WaterGirl
@FastEdD: Are you up for doing some more research on him?
Dorothy A. Winsor
Say what?
FastEdD
@dnfree: Ha! Although I taught as high as Precalculus, I was an Art major.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That is a poorly constructed sentence.
Did she just [tell us] that she was ready to push the nuclear button during the leadership contest?
Or did he literals SAY that during the leadership contest?
And what does the nuclear button have to do with the leadership contest. She is very bad news, but I’m confused as to the details.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: I should have told you about the bread.
Also, get something like wonder bread – white bread that will get gummy and glom onto any shards that are there.
Do not get whole wheat or any GOOD bread. You want the crappy gummy white bread for this.
edit: Why, yes, my cocker spaniel did once steal bone-in chicken breasts when she figured out how to open the refrigerator.
New Style in Parsons
I agree with Kent’s comments above. I live in the district, have already donated substantially to her campaign but always ready to help with more. And she needs out help. Please donate.
FastEdD
Regarding CA-40 from the DCCC (D Trip):
Representative Young Kim has already had a harder time than anticipated keeping her seat in Congress. After doing little to campaign and make the case to the 80% of new voters in her district over the last few months, Kim put herself at risk of losing her seat long before the November general election. In a desperate attempt to stave off an embarrassing loss from a primary on the right, Kim and Kevin McCarthy’s super PAC dumped more than a million dollars into ads before the June 7th primary.
OTOH Dr. Asif Mahmood has run for office twice before and didn’t win.
Much is made of Mahmood getting a higher percentage in the top two jungle primary than Young Kim, but the R votes were split. This is a case of winning the primary but being behind in the general.
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: thank you, that was my thought exactly! And maybe some baby food for afters.
John S.
WA-08 (my district) is also strangely competitive. The incumbent Kim Schrier would have faced a much tougher fight if her opponent wasn’t a raving MAGA nut job. But that seems to be the only folks capable of winning GOP primaries lately.
WaterGirl
@John S.: Can you say more? Do you know what the money situation is? Does Kim Schrier have pretty good cash on hand or does the opponent have more?
Is your district a toss-up, lean D, lean R, solid D?
SuzieC
@WaterGirl: Please don’t drop Kaptur! She’s the only Ohioan receiving support from the BJ community. As you pointed out if she gets a big turnout it helps other Dems up and down the ballot.
Also donating an amount divisible by 7.
WaterGirl
@SuzieC: I am going to leave Marcy Kaptur in. Not a single vote has been cast yet, and just because the Rs pulled out now, that doesn’t mean that a rich R can’t pump money right back in.
She’s good and I say we fight for her regardless. And you’re right that all the OH candidates benefit. Hoping we can take the senate race, too!
If anyone donating thinks that someone in particular isn’t the best use of funds for the House, they can customize the amounts. You just have to hit customize before you enter your amount in order to change the split.
WaterGirl
in case you guys are interested in details, here’s the breakdown so far:
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: You can see that the original 4 have raised more than the folks who were added more recently.
Josh Riley is my fault – I added him to the list in the thread yesterday, but I forgot to add him to the actual thermometer! So sorry!
I guess it really is true that you can’t get good help these days. :-)
I would love to be able to get $5,000 for each of our purple house people, of course the more people we add, the tougher it will be to get there.
I can give you guys an update every few days if you are interested.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Beyond the money raised, I think these threads have a lot of educational value. It’s good to learn about the Democrats running in these tossup races, and to learn about the challenges and rewards of contesting purple districts, because they are the key to holding on to and expanding our House majority.
There are a lot of talented incumbents we don’t read much about because they don’t make a lot of national news. When they do get their turn on the national stage, like class of 2018 members Jaime Raskin and Joe Neguse did as Impeachment Managers and Elaine Luria has as a J6 Commitee member, people might say “Wow! Where were they hiding?” But they were hiding in plain sight, and there are many more like them we should know about. I think this series is a good way to learn.
H.E.Wolf
@Geminid:
Well said!
gus
I’m concerned about IL-17. Bustos isn’t running, district is moving more red with each election. Is this Dem seat at risk in Nov.?
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: I reached out to one of our Balloon Juice California peeps to get his input on this.
So I won’t be adding these CA races to the list.
WaterGirl
@gus: I did some research. This is on the Red-to-Blue list for this year. I will add Eric Sorensen.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: Okay, I did a little research on this one. The Dem has a huge fundraising advantage. It is considered a true toss-up, but it doesn’t appear that money from us could make a difference.
Fingers crossed for Angie Craig in MN-02, but this one is not going on the list.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: Okay, I did some research on this one. Rs have some advantage in this one, and a fundraising advantage. Tony Vargas doesn’t have a lot of money on hand, at least as of the last report.
I am adding Tony Vargas to the list.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: And Representative Peltola’s race in Alaska is a tossup I think. She’s “pro choice, pro labor, pro fish and pro family!”
Ms. Peltola’s special election victory got widespread notice, though, so she may already be attracting a lot of donations.
And thank you for your good work, Ms. Watergirl! This is a really good series.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: Okay, I did some research, and I think we will add this one.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: According to one of our CA peeps on Bj, the CA races are swimming in money.
WaterGirl
@John S.: Kim Schrier looks good. She looks to have plenty of cash on hand, especially when compared to her opponent, so I don’t think I am adding this one.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: I would LOVE to raise funds for Mary Peltola, but she is getting a lot of national attention, so I think she will likely be in good shape fundraising-wise.
I’m not sure when the fundraising info gets updated on Open Secrets, but if it turns out that I am wrong, we can add her later.
New Style in Parsons
Article today in NYTimes on Washington CD3 race and our candidate Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. She’s a good one, please help out however much you can.
Article
WaterGirl
@New Style in Parsons: Can you tell us a bit about what the article says? I am out of my 10 free articles.
edit: You may also want to copy your comment to the new purple races thread that I just put up.