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You are here: Home / Archives for Foreign Affairs / Iran

Iran

War for Ukraine Day 1,389: Berlin

by Adam L Silverman|  December 14, 20258:48 pm| 25 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

President Zelenskyy was in Berlin today for negotiations with very special envoy plenipotentiary Steve Witkoff and still not a real boy Jared. There is no daily address today as a result.

Territorial issues, frozen assets, and peace talks: Zelenskyy answers journalists’ questions while in Germany.

Key points:

– President has not yet received a response from the United States regarding the latest proposals for the peace plan.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM

-“The plan will not be one that everyone likes; inevitably, there are many compromises in one format or another,” Zelenskyy said.

– Since not all support Ukraine’s NATO membership, the compromise option is bilateral security guarantees.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM

– “If the U.S. applies pressure and truly seeks to end the war, Russia will be forced to compromise.”

– Ukraine will consider the 20-point plan—ending with a ceasefire clause—at talks in Berlin.

– NATO membership for Ukraine was viewed as a genuine security guarantee.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM

– He confirmed the participation of Svyrydenko and Hnatov in the negotiations.

– Zelenskyy has not yet decided who will head the Presidential Office.

– Ukraine is working on mechanisms to use Russia’s frozen assets❗️👀

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM

– Ukraine and Belarus have communicated at the intelligence level regarding the transfer of political prisoners.

– On Donbas: “We stand where we stand”—a possible option, as it would mean a ceasefire for further diplomacy❗️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM

– On Friday, Zelenskyy will meet with Polish President Karol Nawrocki.

– Lawmakers must develop options for holding elections in the near future.

– Ukraine is preparing to open all negotiation clusters on EU accession.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:11 AM

A senior Ukrainian official said the talks in Berlin are done for the night after more than five hours. The sides will pick up tomorrow where they left off. Zelenskyy will comment on the talks tomorrow, once they finish going through the key points of the peace proposal they’re working on.

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) December 14, 2025 at 2:43 PM

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is ready to give up on demands for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe, in a move aimed at advancing peace talks in Berlin on Sunday.

US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner have pushed Ukraine to accept painful concessions, including ceding frontline territory to Russia, ahead of talks with Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s European allies on the White House plan to end Russia’s invasion.

Ukraine has admitted that it was unlikely to join Nato in the foreseeable future due to strong opposition from Russia, which has long demanded that the transatlantic alliance pledge to halt its eastward expansion as a condition for ending the war.

But Zelenskyy told reporters on Sunday that Ukraine still requires security guarantees from the US and Europe, similar to Nato’s Article 5 clause of mutual protection for any member under attack.

“We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5–like guarantees . . . as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others,” Zelenskyy told journalists in a WhatsApp chat. “And this is already a compromise on our part.”

Zelenskyy said Ukraine has yet to receive a response from Washington to revised proposals sent earlier this week from Kyiv after consultations with European leaders. 

“The plan will certainly not be one that everyone likes. There are many compromises in one or another version of the plan,” he said.

Russia has said it would probably reject all the proposals from Ukraine and Europe, throwing doubt on whether Trump’s push to end the nearly four-year war could succeed.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, said any Ukrainian and European suggestions for the plan were “unlikely to be constructive” and Russia would have “sharp objections” if the US adopted them. “It’s not like there’s going to be anything good there,” Ushakov said in comments broadcast on state television on Sunday.

More at the link.

The Russian position is that Ukraine will have to accept whatever it is told to accept. Putin is not interested in a negotiated settlement, his interested in dictating terms. And he thinks he can successfully do so because he’s been successfully manipulating Trump for well over a decade.

Here’s The Kyiv Independent‘s reporting: (emphasis mine)

Editor’s note: This story is being updated.

President Volodymyr Zelensky concluded his meeting U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Berlin on Dec. 14, as talks continue to finalize a peace plan to end Russia’s full-scale war.

The visit is part of renewed diplomatic efforts, after the U.S. backed a 28-point plan that many viewed as effectively pushing Ukraine toward capitulation in Russia’s all-out war. The proposal was subsequently reduced to 20 points following consultations with Ukrainian and European representatives.

The talks, which lasted for more than five hours on Dec. 14, will continue on the morning of Dec. 15, Ukraine’s Presidential Office told public broadcaster Suspilne.

In a readout provided by Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy said that a “lot of progress was made” during the meeting, without providing details.

Speaking ahead of the meeting, Zelensky signaled that Ukraine seeks NATO-like security guarantees as part of a peace deal to prevent future Russian aggression, as full membership is opposed by the U.S. and other partners.

Ahead of the meeting, Axios reported, citing a senior U.S. official, that the Trump administration may be willing to provide Congress-approved NATO-like security guarantees.

“We want to give the Ukrainians a security guarantee that will not be a blank check on the one hand but will be strong enough on the other hand. We are willing to send it to Congress to vote on it,” the U.S. official told Axios.

“When people see what they are going to get and not only what they are going to give they are more willing to move forward,” the official added.

Washington continues to pressure Kyiv to advance negotiations, amid fresh accusations from U.S. President Donald Trump that Zelensky is refusing to accept the American plan.

Washington continues to pressure Kyiv to advance negotiations, amid fresh accusations from U.S. President Donald Trump that Zelensky is refusing to accept the American plan.

Ukraine’s president previously said that he will hold talks with European leaders and Trump’s envoys to discuss “the foundation of peace — a political agreement to end the war.”

This trip will focus on “how to reliably guarantee security for Ukraine so that the experience of the Budapest Memorandum and Russia’s invasion never happens again,” he announced upon arrival.

Earlier this week, Ukraine and its European partners submitted their revision to the U.S.-backed peace framework to Washington, seeking to alter provisions that would require sweeping concessions from Kyiv.

Speaking to journalists en route to Berlin, Zelensky said that Kyiv has not yet received a response from the U.S. to its revised peace proposals, but added that he is ready for dialogue. The president noted that he will talk to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and possibly other European leaders later on Dec. 14.

As Kyiv continues to rally support from European capitals, ahead of the Ukrainian president’s meeting with Trump’s envoys, French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call with Zelensky.

“France is, and will remain, at Ukraine’s side to build a robust and lasting peace—one that can guarantee Ukraine’s security and sovereignty, and that of Europe, over the long term,” the French president wrote following the call.

Macron, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Merz will also attend the meetings with Witkoff scheduled for Dec. 14 and 15, the Wall Street Journal wrote.

“There won’t be a plan that everybody will like,” Zelensky said, stressing that the peace proposal must be just, effective, and prevent Moscow from launching renewed aggression against Ukraine.

As the U.S. and some European partners do not back Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, Kyiv instead seeks “Article 5-like” bilateral guarantees from the U.S., European countries, and other partners, he noted.

“And that’s already a compromise from our side,” Zelensky said, adding that such guarantees on the American part must be confirmed by the U.S. Congress.

According to the president, Ukraine is not leading a “direct dialogue with the Russian side,” as Moscow’s positions are relayed by the U.S.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said that Moscow had not yet reviewed the Ukrainian and European revisions to the peace plan, but added that they “will likely not be constructive” and Russia will “strongly object” if any changes are implemented. Ushakov stressed that Moscow is determined to stand its ground on territorial issues.

The Kremlin has demanded that Ukraine cede the entire Donetsk Oblast, including territory that Russian forces have been unable to capture, as a key condition for any peace deal.

Speaking about Donbas, Zelensky said the only fair option would be a ceasefire based on the “we stand where we stand” principle, and the matter would be resolved later through diplomatic means.

Any proposal for a “free economic zone” or a “demilitarized zone” — an idea backed by the U.S. — would only be just if both sides withdraw their forces symmetrically, Zelensky added, calling it a “question that currently has no answer.”

I want to focus on this bit:

Speaking ahead of the meeting, Zelensky signaled that Ukraine seeks NATO-like security guarantees as part of a peace deal to prevent future Russian aggression, as full membership is opposed by the U.S. and other partners.

Ahead of the meeting, Axios reported, citing a senior U.S. official, that the Trump administration may be willing to provide Congress-approved NATO-like security guarantees.

“We want to give the Ukrainians a security guarantee that will not be a blank check on the one hand but will be strong enough on the other hand. We are willing to send it to Congress to vote on it,” the U.S. official told Axios.

“When people see what they are going to get and not only what they are going to give they are more willing to move forward,” the official added.

There is no way that any US negotiator can guarantee that this will even come up for a vote in the Senate, let alone that it will pass. What is being suggested here is that this agreement will include a treaty between the US and Ukraine that will guarantee Ukrainian security equivalent to NATO’s Article V. The problem here is that the only treaty or treaty renegotiation to make it through the Senate in recent memory is the barely modified NAFTA that Trump demanded during term 1 to fix the non-existent trade imbalances between the US and Canada and the US and Mexico. And which he has now arrogated with his tariffs. The Law of the Sea Treaty still hasn’t been ratified by the Senate despite every Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) and every Commandant of the Coast Guard testifying that they need it ratified. That’s despite over 90% of it being negotiated by a Republican administration. Even if it could get the sixty votes to get past the closure threshold, provided Tubberville or Johnson don’t just put a permanent hold on it, there is no way it is going to get sixty-seven votes to be ratified.

Unfortunately, President Zelenskyy has to jump through these hoops knowing that the US has not been a reliable partner since the beginning of Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, nor a good faith negotiator since Trump returned to office last January. At this point Ukraine is defending itself against Russia with the US putting a thumb on the scale Putin to help him achieve his strategic objectives. Any agreement with the US, specifically the Trump administration, will not be worth the paper it is printed on.

9 months ago today we killed 34 civilians attending an Easter church service because we are fighting to defend Christian values from the godless west who attack them.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:32 AM

When we kill civilians attending a christmas service in a few weeks, it will because you permitted it.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:32 AM

This is the correct understanding of the regional and geo-strategic reality:

There won’t be peace in this world unless Russia is defeated unconditionally and reeducated into changing its collective psychology.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 5:21 PM

show full post on front page

Georgia:

Tbilisi, Georgia joins the global Stop Human Safari / Save Kherson campaign in solidarity with Ukraine.

Day 382 of nonstop protests in 8+ cities across Georgia.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 12:19 PM

STOP HUMAN SAFARI/SAVE KHERSON 🇺🇦

A protest against Russia’s war crimes was held in Tbilisi.

This global campaign is taking place in 40+ cities on
Dec 13–15, exposing Russia’s use of small commercial drones to target civilians in Ukraine.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 382

Video: Levan Zazadze

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 12:48 PM

Today, Tbilisi joined the #StopHumanSafari in Kherson.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 2:51 PM

Mzia Tabagari, 63, still protests every single day — and changes several public transport to do so.

Day 382 of #GeorgiaProtests

📷 MOSE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 2:01 PM

Background: my January post

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 2:02 PM

🏆 Publika journalists Natia Amiranashvili and @mindiagabadze.bsky.social Gabadze won a prize from the Georgian Journalistic Charter of Ethics. Natia’s article focused on false witnesses in the court cases of political prisoners. Mindia’s work was a photo reportage from court hearings.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 12:35 AM

💡 You can read the materials here. They were prepared in Georgian, but the website allows you to read them in English.

👉 Police Officers Exposed as False Witnesses publika.ge/article/cru-…

👉 The Photojournalist’s Final Word publika.ge/blog/fotorep…

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 12:35 AM

One of the key faces of the Georgian Dream, Dimitri (Dito) Samkharadze commented on the backlash that the Kobakhidze-Putin visuals received:

1/2

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:38 AM

“They [the democratic forces] are scared that what if 🇷🇺 agrees on the peaceful reunification of 🇬🇪; they are scared that some meetings could take place & 🇬🇪 could be reunified.”

Under their rule, the only scenario for 🇬🇪 reunification is if all 100% of the Georgian territory is annexed by Russia. 2/2

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:38 AM

Finland:

President Stubb: “Russia is the number one threat for Europe and actually the Western world.”

🫳🎤

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 4:25 PM

Hungary:

Hungarian PM Orbán warned EU seizing frozen Russian assets for Ukraine would be declaring war on Russia, calling it a violation of European law and warning the €200-300 billion seizure won’t go unanswered.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 3:28 AM

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Sybiha called Orbán “Russia’s most valuable frozen asset in Europe” commenting on his position regarding Russian assets.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 2:24 PM

Polish FM told Orbán he “deserves his Order of Lenin” after claiming EU Ukraine loan would declare war on Russia, with Hungary’s Szijjártó accusing Poland of wanting Russia-Europe war and Sikorski replying Hungary will side with Russia anyway.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 10:18 AM

Magyar coming in off the top rope with the finisher!

Iran:

Russia launched mercenary recruitment in Iran offering $20,000 signing bonus and $2,000 monthly via Telegram, targeting economically vulnerable populations as part of campaign that recruited 18,000 foreigners from 128 countries, Ukraine’s disinformation center reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:17 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Combat clashes jumped 11% in November with Pokrovsk direction accounting for 37% of total engagements, followed by Kostiantynivka at 13% and Oleksandrivka at 12%, Oko Hora reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM

“If you must die anyway… better to die for something grand.”

Why do Russians willing throw themselves into the meat grinder of Putin’s failed war in Ukraine?

@ElviraBary explains the origins of Russia’s death cult.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzcJ…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 2:18 PM

“… This is why the staggering number of Soviet losses in WW2 is directly tied to the moral weight of victory. Suggesting that the war could’ve been won with fewer deaths is a violation of every social & emotional norm”

(timestamp)
youtu.be/QzcJfClYNso?…

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— ville hautakangas (@vhautaka.milfmessenger.app) December 14, 2025 at 3:28 PM

From Elvira Bary’s site:

When I was a child in Russia, I was surrounded by beautiful stories about dying.

Not horror, not random accidents, but perfect deaths.

A boy throwing himself under a tank. A girl blowing up a bridge. Soldiers smiling as they walk toward bullets “for the Motherland.”

As a child, you don’t question it. Adults hand you this script, and you accept it as the natural order of things. Only much later do you look back at the books you read, the films that made you cry, the games you played, the fantasies you had at seven years old, and you see the pattern.

Everything pointed in one direction:  A good Russian life was a life you were ready to give up.

Not for yourself, but for something “higher.”

That’s when it hit me: I hadn’t just grown up with a different attitude to death. I had grown up inside a death cult. It is older than the Soviet Union, older than the empire, woven into religion, serfdom, and war. And it has nothing in common with how death is treated in places like the United States, with Halloween, plastic skeletons on porches, and quiet green cemeteries. The Russian relationship with death is its own emotional universe.

Tonight we’re going to ask a very uncomfortable question: Why does Russia so often love death more than life, and how is Putin trying to use that love to fuel this war?

Here’s our roadmap for tonight:

  • The Origins of the Death Cult – how religion and centuries of serfdom taught people that death could give more meaning than life.
  • The Soviet Reinvention of Sacrifice – how dying for a “bright future” became sacred, glorious, and desirable.
  • The Modern Revival – how sacred death has been resurrected as a political resource and a tool of control.
  • Those Who Are Left Behind – what this cult does to mothers, wives, and children in today’s Russia.
  • The Real Consequences – what happens when a centuries-old tradition meets low birth rates and a shrinking population, and why this death cult is finally beginning to fail.

Much more at the link.

As I’ve written many times, Russia under Putin is an entire society organized around the concept of pobiedobesie, which translates as victory obsession or victory frenzy.

Russian Tunguska air defence system destroyed by heavy bomber drones

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 9:17 AM

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces struck Afipsky and Saratov refineries plus military targets in occupied territories on December 13-14, Magyar reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 7:04 AM

Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed strikes on Afipsky refinery and Uryupinsk oil depot in Russia causing fires, while hitting multiple targets in occupied territories including EW stations, command posts, Tor-M2 system and radar stations in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 4:57 AM

First foreign volunteers for 28th Mechanized Brigade’s Spalakh UAV Battalion begin basic and specialized training, arriving from Poland, US, Madagascar, Australia and Brazil.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 4:56 AM

Zaporizhzhia:

Four russian air strikes hit Zaporizhzhia, one of which destroyed a supermarket.

Seven people were injured, including a child.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 6:30 AM

In Zaporizhzhia, Russia targeted a supermarket of one of Ukraine’s busiest chains on Sunday, timed precisely for when civilians shop.

Bastards!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 7:22 AM

The number of injured in russian attack on the supermarket in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 14, including 1 child.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 1:20 PM

Police released bodycam footage showing the first moments after the Russian attack on a supermarket in Zaporizhzhia today, including the double tap in which a POW officer was wounded‼️

This is a nightmare. It is pure terrorism. I have no other words for it.

Watch❗️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 3:39 PM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Drone operators from the “Roniny” unit discovered a hangar filled with Russian armored vehicles.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 5:17 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

In occupied Simferopol, ATAN gas stations have run out of regular 95-octane fuel and diesel, while TES stations are left with only 95 “Premium,” locals report.

good drones imposed sanctions.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 10:55 AM

Special Operations Forces of Ukraine hit multiple Russian targets with FP-2 kamikaze drones, including a moving fuel train in Crimea.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 7:58 AM

This time Prymary targeted Russian Kasta-2E2 radar as well as 96L6 radar station of the S-400 air defence system in Crimea.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 8:03 AM

Kyiv:

First snowfall of winter in Kyiv. Recent Russian attacks have reduced power supplies to 10-12 hours per day in the Ukrainian capital, and less in some harder-hit towns and cities, so the Christmassy weather is not so cheerful.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 3:14 AM

Odesa:

For the third day in a row, russia has been relentlessly attacking the energy infrastructure of the Odesa region.

Large parts of the city are still w/o electricity, water, or heating. While power is slowly being restored in some areas, thousands of people are trying to survive w/o basic services.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 1:11 PM

After and especially brutal targeted attack, Russia has left the city of Odesa completely without any power. Residents have no electricity, no heat, no water. Nothing.

Russia is destroying the conditions necessary for life.

This is GENOCIDE!! We have a LEGAL and MORAL DUTY TO STOP GENOCIDE!!!

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— Ariana Gic (@arianagic.bsky.social) December 13, 2025 at 1:17 PM

Odesa enters second day of blackout with local resilience points crowded by people charging devices and preparing hot meals.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 11:30 AM

Yak-52 intercepts Russian Shahed in the skies over Odesa

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 11:10 AM

Odesa residents cheer the interception of the Russian Shahed

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 3:13 PM

New footage shows Turkish cargo ship Cenk T struck by Russian missiles in Odesa was carrying tomatoes and vegetables, debunking pro-Kremlin claims it held generators for Ukraine’s shadow energy fleet, Exilenova+ reported.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 6:28 AM

Pokrovsk:

Ukraine’s Flying Skull operators hit a Russian drone crew bunker, quad bike, car with trailer and two vehicles carrying paratroopers on the Pokrovsk front using fiber-optic and FPV drones.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 1:53 PM

Ukraine’s 7th Airmobile Brigade destroyed a Russian column trying to use fog cover to advance from Pokrovsk to Hryshyne, with footage showing confused troops fleeing under artillery fire.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 9:48 AM

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Something is going on in russian Rostov

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 6:39 PM

Ivanovo Oblast, Russia:

Epic footage of the crash of a Russian An-22 in Ivanovo region on December 9 👀

There was no survivors.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 7:29 AM

✈️Moment of the crash of the Russian military transport aircraft An-22

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 7:03 AM

I’m pretty sure you’re supposed to tighten the bolts that connect the front of the plane to the back of the plane, but I could be wrong.

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Night-time strikes were reported in Belgorod, Russia. Russian channels say the Luch thermal power plant was hit in a missile attack. Unconfirmed reports suggest HIMARS was used – something seen relatively rarely.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 5:34 PM

Moscow Oblast, Russia:

Attack reported in Moscow region with air defenses active.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 12:36 PM

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

Strike moment on oil depot in Uryupinsk, Volgograd region, with NASA FIRMS also confirming fire.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 14, 2025 at 3:43 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. here is some adjacent material.

Another classic photobomb moment from Larry. I don’t think Mr. Zelenskyy minded at all.

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— Justin Ng (@justin-ng.bsky.social) December 8, 2025 at 12:07 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,389: BerlinPost + Comments (25)

War for Ukraine Day 1,362: More Missiles on Monday Afternoon

by Adam L Silverman|  November 17, 202511:12 pm| 10 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia targeted civilian targets about midnight in Ukraine/5:00 PM EST.

Ukraine is under russian missiles attack right now! Monitoring channels report an attack on Berestyn in Kharkiv region.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:52 PM

President Zelenskyy traveled on to France today for meetings with President Macron. There was no daily address, but he did deliver a statement at the beginning of their joint presser. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Statement by the President of Ukraine During a Joint Press Conference with the President of France

17 November 2025 – 16:08

Thank you very much, dear Emmanuel!

First of all, thank you, dear Mr. President, for your warm words and for your support. You have been with Ukraine from the very beginning. I am deeply grateful to you, and Ukraine – the Ukrainian people – all respect France, the French people, and you personally. Thank you once again for all the support your state, your people, and you personally have demonstrated since the start of this war and on a daily basis, no matter what. Thank you!

Distinguished attendees, dear journalists, ladies and gentlemen,

Dear France,

I am grateful to the President that France stands with Ukraine. Ukraine is not alone now, not on its own in its defense, and that is precisely why we can count on bringing this war to an end – because we have friends, and France is our friend – on bringing it to an end with dignity. Putin has been waging war against Ukrainians for many years already: years of hybrid warfare, years of full-scale war. Russia has vast resources and does not count its own human losses at all, launches constant strikes, but we are doing everything to ensure we have protection. France stands with us, as does all of free Europe. The United States helps us, along with other countries around the world – from Canada to nations in Asia, from Japan to countries in Latin America. We have built one of the largest coalitions for the defense of life ever formed – and I am grateful to Emmanuel, all partners, and such a strong coalition for this. Ukrainians gave this unifying impulse to Europe and to others around the world, and we receive support because of it – unity works. And that is exactly why we are able to shoot down Russian missiles, stop Russian assaults on the front line every day, and restore our energy sector and our infrastructure whenever Russia destroys it – it’s very difficult for us, extremely challenging, but we restore all this. And most importantly – we give other nations hope that Russia will not succeed in making war, deportation, and the abuse of people the new norm. Ukraine is not alone in its defense, not on its own, not isolated. And France knows very well what this means for us, and how important it is that such words were once spoken to France – on June 18, 1940, by General de Gaulle – and that it worked. Defenders of life must never be left alone, and I thank you, Emmanuel, that France’s support is always effective, fully practical, and truly gives us strength and hope.

Today, our meeting adds precisely such elements to our defense – effective, practical, and strong. Agreements have been prepared, and important documents are being signed today to significantly strengthen our defense capabilities. First, Ukraine will be able to receive one hundred Rafale F4 aircraft, very powerful French radars, and eight SAMP/T air defense systems with six launchers each – and for someone this may be a technical detail, but for us it is essential: every launcher is protection for every life; this is extremely important – as well as the missiles and guided bombs necessary for our defense. I would like to emphasize the importance of this agreement – it is a strategic agreement that will be in effect for 10 years starting next year. We understand all the foundations of this agreement – political, financial, industrial. This is a historic agreement. It is of great value that France is taking such a step toward achieving real, guaranteed security in Europe. Second, today together with the President of France, we met with representatives of defense companies – we are very grateful – and we had time to discuss some specific details of technological cooperation. But the main thing is that we outlined the direction: we will jointly increase the industrial and technological potential of Ukraine and France. And this is not only strength in defense – this is literally strength in life, because it means jobs for our people, development for enterprises, development for communities. And third, we are strengthening our logistics, our transport sector in Ukraine, and today we have another very important agreement – the purchase of 55 new electric locomotives from France. This is a deal between our Ukrainian Railways – congratulations to all – and the French company Alstom. And we are committed to carrying on with this line of cooperation with France. Today we are embarking on an important and meaningful security path, and I am absolutely confident that we will achieve the results we need. Thank you, Emmanuel! Thank you, France! And I thank you for the new defense package being prepared for the end of this year. This also strengthens Ukraine. And of course, today we will speak in detail about how we can once again activate diplomacy – the negotiation process, the process of pressure – to create the conditions necessary for a dignified peace for Ukraine and Europe. There are now several important things, important ideas, proposals that we must discuss with Emmanuel. I am confident that Ukraine must be strong, must be peaceful. And it will be so when we have such strong friends as France. Thank you, Emmanuel, for this invitation and for the results of this visit.

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska took part in a conference on European demographics.

Olena Zelenska Participated Online in the Summit on Europe’s Demographic Future

17 November 2025 – 20:27

First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska participated online in the International Summit “GROWING EUROPE 2025: Shaping Europe’s Demographic Future by Investing in Families and Every New Life,” held in Vilnius on November 17–18.

The First Lady expressed her gratitude to the First Lady of Lithuania, Diana Nausėdienė, for organizing the summit and for her leadership on this issue, as well as to other colleagues from the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen.

“According to UN forecasts, women around the world will give birth less and less. By the end of the century, most families will have only one child. In the European Union, the fertility rate is just 1.5. In Ukraine, because of Russia’s invasion, this figure is at the lowest point in our history – around 0.8–0.9 according to various estimates. The feeling of security has the greatest influence on the decision to bring a new life into the world,” Olena Zelenska emphasized.

The President’s wife also noted that the summit is taking place on a symbolic date: World Prematurity Day.

“Unfortunately, the number of premature births in Ukraine has increased because of the stress of war experienced by mothers. My colleagues from the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen remember well how, at the beginning of the invasion, we had to urgently bring in incubators for these newborns,” she said.

The First Lady stressed that Ukraine seeks to respond to demographic challenges with social support for childhood and families, because this is also part of the country’s defense.

“Among the projects I patronize are support for large foster families, the construction of bomb shelters for schools, and the renovation of kitchen facilities and cafeterias. And right now, Ukraine is joining the European Child Guarantee – the European program that ensures children’s access to free education and care, medical assistance, adequate housing, and nutrition,” Olena Zelenska said.

The First Lady separately thanked European countries for protecting and supporting Ukrainian children and mothers.

“Investing now in families and children, creating opportunities and care for them is the best demographic decision any country can make. Because at the same time, it is an investment in peace, resilience, and the future of all Europe. I believe that if we see a person and their needs behind every statistic, all our indicators will change for the better – as will human lives,” the First Lady concluded.

Here’s the video:

Georgia:

Day 355 of #GeorgiaProtests

People marched for hours. The police gave up, they were too lazy to follow around (not that they decide anything on their own, but still).

📷 MOSE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 6:39 PM

Day 355 of uninterrupted protests in 8+ cities across Georgia.
After making fools of themselves for days, police seem to have given up on chasing protesters through the streets and trying to block their every move.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 12:52 PM

Participants in the protest march unfurled Georgian and EU flags on the Saarbrücken Bridge.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 355

Photo: Publika/Khatia Kakhidze, Mariam Kavshbaia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 1:52 PM

Georgian protesters have filled the Saarbruecken Bridge in Tbilisi, blocking traffic on both sides of the Mtkvari River.
Day 355 of uninterrupted protests in Georgia.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 12:59 PM

A beautiful and emotional performance of Georgia’s national anthem in Tbilisi tonight, as huge Georgian and EU flags wave among the crowd.

Day 355 of uninterrupted protests.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 1:20 PM

This is how Georgian protesters are often met as they march through the streets.
After nearly a year of daily protests, many people no longer have the luxury to show up every single night — but this fight still means everything to them, and it shows.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 1:07 PM

🚨 Georgian Dream plans to revoke the right to vote in elections for citizens living outside Georgia’s borders.

Shalva Papuashvili said that “the 2024 parliamentary elections also “showed how open and brutal informational and political pressure on voters from abroad can be”.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:00 AM

JUST IN: the Georgian Dream deprives Georgians abroad of voting rights. If the diaspora wishes to vote, they must physically arrive in Georgia on the election day.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 3:36 AM

Yes, well, what you cannot tamper with, you better just outlaw.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 3:36 AM

In the rigged 2024 Parliamentary elections, the Georgian Dream got staggering 13.49% of votes from abroad.

No wonder they now banned voting from abroad.

Statistics from @netgazeti.org (also no wonder they are cracking down on independent media).

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:26 AM

This aligns with warnings from former GD official Irakli Shaishmelashvili — now in the U.S. — who has been told GD plans to call elections in March to secure a constitutional majority. With opposition parties banned and leaders jailed, little rigging would even be needed.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:14 AM

There’s an increasingly reasonable suspicion that the Georgian Dream could schedule snap elections some time in 2026, likely in spring.

Not to deescalate though, but rather to: 1. numb dissent and 2. consolidate further.

1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM

In 2024, they just hoped to stay in power through their mass fraud scheme.

Now, they want a constitutional majority at the illegitimate Parliament.

2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM

Their reasons for wanting the constitutional majority are vast, and the worst scenario that I see is them pushing for the “Confederation” with Abkhazia (and possibly also the Tskhinvali region – South Ossetia).

3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM

Then they’ll try to sell this “Confederation” Russian Trojan horse as “reunification” and attempt to reign forever.

In reality, a confederation means recognition of the sovereignty of the Russian-occupied breakaway territories

4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM

and the subsequent withdrawal of the territories from the confederation – this time with full legal rights to do so.

This isn’t for sure, but it needs to be considered – and prepared for – quite seriously.

5/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM

I’m not even talking about the Dictatorship 101 developments such as labeling everyone as terrorists and building a hermetic mafia state.

6/6.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM

And the snap elections could numb dissent instead of further fueling it because the democratic forces could again reach no universal accord in the (non-)participation issue.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 8:03 AM

1/ The Anti-Corruption Bureau was established as part of a priority task set by the European Commission for granting Georgia EU candidate status.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 5:09 AM

2/ However, the agency is not fulfilling its duties; instead, the Georgian Dream party is using it as a tool to persecute civil society organizations and the media.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 5:09 AM

3/ Kakha Kaladze, the Secretary General of the Georgian Dream party, said today, November 17, that it was “an imposed, somewhat independent, supposedly created body.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 5:09 AM

I sometimes hear that 🇬🇪ns need to “revolt.”

Revolts don’t happen with bare hands, especially in societies that aren’t outright starving en masse.

Historically, revolts need elite (whether economic, political, or military) backstage preparation for such a scenario as well as financial support.

1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:34 PM

None of which has been the case in Georgia, despite what the regime propaganda states.

I have frequently said that this movement is multi-dimensional, being directed not just against the Russian regime,

2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:34 PM

but subtly also against the rampant crony and post-Sovieticus elites of the last 35 years (since the restoration of independence).

Conditions are also unfavorable for strikes – there are virtually no trade unions in Georgia, it’s either businesses, or people working on pennies.

3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:34 PM

The only thing that could trigger a revolt or a spontaneous strike is another round of mass regime violence in the streets, but the regime is very determined to avoid that like a Fabian strategy of exhaustion of protesters.

4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:34 PM

Elites aren’t in a hurry to give up their comfort.

But protesters are not giving up either.

5/5.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:34 PM

🟥Zaza Shatirishvili, a speaker affiliated with Bidzina Ivanishvili – a Russia-enriched oligarch and Georgia’s strongman – is calling U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance a representative of the “deep state.”

#Georgia
batumelebi.netgazeti.ge/articles-in-…

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) November 17, 2025 at 10:21 AM

France:

France and Ukraine have signed a declaration on Ukraine’s acquisition of Rafale fighter jets, missiles for them, and SAMP/T air-defence systems.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 5:21 AM

Rafale F4 Jets for Ukraine, Stronger Air Defense, and Joint Weapons Production: Key Statements from Zelenskyy and Macron press conference

Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
– Ukraine will receive 100 Rafale F4 fighter jets by 2035, along with 8 SAMP/T air defense systems. (🇫🇷🫶)

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:25 AM

– Ukraine and France signed an agreement for the delivery of 55 electric locomotives.
– The President declined to disclose full details of the defense agreement between Ukraine and France, citing security risks.
– Anti‑corruption measures in Ukraine remain insufficient, so they will continue.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:25 AM

Emmanuel Macron:
– Peace between Ukraine and Russia is possible by 2027.
– The Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive upgraded SAMP/T systems before the French army itself. (🫶🇫🇷)
– Supplying Ukraine with additional weapons systems, including Rafale jets, will not make France a party to the war.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:25 AM

– Ukraine and France agreed to jointly design and produce weapons.
– Rafale fighters will mark a new stage for Ukraine.
– Nobody believes Russia truly wants peace, since only Ukraine has shown a genuine desire to end the war—starting in May 2025.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:25 AM

Poland:

The Polish prime minister has confirmed that an act of sabotage took place, involving the blowing up of a railway line roughly 70 kilometres south of Warsaw.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 5:06 AM

“An armed attack on Poland is being prepared. The enemy has begun preparations for war.” – said the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, General Wiesław Kukuła, as reported by Rzeczpospolita.
www.rp.pl/wojsko/art43…

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 11:33 AM

The fact that several explosives have been planted along Polish rail tracks by the Russian GRU is only the latest episode of the undeniable truth:

We are at war with Russia. Period.

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— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 1:52 PM

The Czech Republic:

In Prague, a rally in support of Ukraine was held, where a 30‑meter blue‑and‑yellow flag was unfurled.

According to one of the organizers, who spoke to Radio Liberty, the event was “a reaction to the disgraceful removal of the Ukrainian

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 11:32 AM

flag from the building of the Czech Parliament, as well as from the National Museum in Prague”

Czechs ❤️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 11:32 AM

The ‘Flamingo’ missile, funded in just two days by ordinary citizens of the Czech Republic🦩❤️‍🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:05 AM

FP-5 “Flamingo”

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 3:05 AM

Hungary:

Zebras??

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 12:44 PM

EU funds purchase zebras??

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 12:45 PM

Iran:

Russians began using Shahed-101 kamikaze drones. Drones were manufactured in 2024 in Iran. t.me/serhii_flash…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 6:53 AM

The US:

Trump says that Republicans in Congress are working on a legislation that would impose sanctions on countries doing business with Russia. He says he suggested to include Iran.

I wonder if this the same one Graham and Blumenthal started back in spring, the one that went nowhere.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 16, 2025 at 9:26 PM

The US Senate is about to move on Trump-backed Russia sanctions.

Senator Lindsey Graham said “with President Trump’s blessing,” the Senate will move on the sanctions.

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— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 1:46 PM

“This legislation is designed to give President Trump more flexibility and power to push Putin to the peace table by going after both Putin and countries like Iran that support him,” Graham wrote.

— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 1:46 PM

“I appreciate the strong bipartisan support for this legislation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.”

— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 1:46 PM

Lindsey doesn’t go to the little senator’s room without “President Trump’s blessing.” Not a cult…

Ukraine is NOT surprised.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 11:49 AM

From RBC Ukraine:

Officials in European Union countries believe that the US President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff does not understand the full nuances of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Politico reports.

The outlet recalls that US President Donald Trump sent his friend Witkoff to conduct personal negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to act as his special envoy in the Middle East.

However, according to Bloomberg, EU officials were shocked that Witkoff doesn’t understand “the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine war”. One senior European official told the outlet that the bloc has no confidence that Witkoff “can even relay messages between Moscow and Washington reliably and accurately.”

For this reason, the official noted, European leaders are eager to speak directly with Trump as often as possible and “with as many of them present as they can.”

In April, Reuters reported, citing sources, that US President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff advised President Donald Trump to hand over several Ukrainian regions to Russia.

Witkoff allegedly argued that this would be the fastest path to peace.

According to Reuters’ sources, this discussion between Witkoff and Trump took place after the envoy met with the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev.

In July, Politico also reported, citing sources, that Witkoff wants the US to lift energy sanctions against Russia.

Additionally, in August, rumors emerged claiming that Witkoff committed a serious breach of diplomatic protocol by attending a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin without a note-taker, leaving Washington without an accurate record of the conversation. This confused his statements about Putin’s conditions for peace in Ukraine.

A meme of COL Hogan, COL Klink, and Sergeant Schultz from Hogan's Heroes triple face palming in Klink's office. The caption says" Triple facepalm: For when a double facepalm is just not enough to describe the epic fail..."

Back to Ukraine.

GUR chief Budanov has broken his silence on the Mindich corruption scandal, saying Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies “exposed and stopped the horror” and that now it’s up to the courts. He stressed that those stealing in wartime, especially in vital sectors, must be punished. Budanov also

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— Baba Yaga Fèlla (@babayagafella.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 12:45 PM

warned the scandal could hurt international support and be exploited by Russia to spread distrust.
#UkraineNews
#russiaMustFall

— Baba Yaga Fèlla (@babayagafella.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 12:45 PM

World War II–era shells were discovered in the Kharkiv region. The dangerous find was made in a field during routine agricultural work.

This is not an isolated incident, but a common occurrence in Ukraine. We are still demining decades later.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM

If World War II left our land like this, imagine how much the Russian invasion has littered it with explosives. This war will continue to kill Ukrainians for generations to come.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM

Beautiful video of Ukrainian-French Mirage 2000 fighter jet heading on a combat mission

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 2:00 PM

A Ukrainian Air Force Mirage 2000 with markings for six downed Russian cruise missiles.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 5:30 AM

Can a bus sign burn your heart? It can.

Bus terminal in Kramatorsk, platform #3 went silent.

“Destination:
Bakhmut
Volnovakha
Kostiantynivka
Myrnohrad
Severodonetsk
Soledar
Toretsk”.

#russiaisaterroriststate

Photo: brnv_elena Threads via Eastern_variant twitter.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:54 AM

Dnipro:

Local channels report that Dnipro is under attack by Russian Shaheds. Residents have already heard more than 20 explosions.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:22 PM

❗️Dnipro right now. One of the russian drones struck an apartment building!

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 6:07 PM

The building of suspilne news was damaged following the attack on Dnipro, Suspilne reports.

A fire broke out, windows and doors were blown out, and the building’s floors and roof were damaged.

At the time of the strike, no staff were present in the newsroom.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 6:11 PM

Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast:

Heartbreaking footage from Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, where russian missiles hit residential areas.

Three people were killed and 15 injured, including three children.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 7:22 AM

Last night Russia struck Balakliya in Kharkiv region with two missiles.

3 people were killed and 15 wounded, including three girls aged 14, 15, and 17, as well as a 12‑year‑old boy, Prosecutor’s Office reported.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 7:16 AM

Drone view of the aftermath of last night’s Russian missile strike on Balakliya in the Kharkiv region, which killed at least 3 people, injured 15 others including 4 children.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Izmail, Odesa Oblast:

Russian drone strike ignited gas vessel off Ukrainian coast and caused the risk of explosion.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 10:14 AM

From Romania Journal:

The 50 residents of the Tulcea village of Plauru and their animals are being evacuated due to the danger of an explosion in the area, after a ship carrying thousands of tons of LPG caught fire near the Ukrainian port of Izmail. The ship was hit by Russian drones last night.

The village of Plauru belongs to the commune of Ceatalchioi, and the ship with 4,000 tons of LPG is burning on the Ukrainian shore.

“Following the drone attack carried out on Ukrainian territory, last night, a ship loaded with LPG was engulfed in flames in the area of ​​Ismail. Given the proximity to Romanian territory and the nature of the cargo, the authorities have carried out an initial assessment of the situation. Taking into account the specifics of the materials on board and the possibility of the effects spreading, the local authorities, in coordination with the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs with a role in managing such emergency situations, have decided to preventively evacuate people and animals in the vicinity, a measure maintained until any risk to the population is eliminated,” the Department for Emergency Situations reported.

In addition, the DSU stated that the County Committee for Emergency Situations has been activated to permanently monitor the evolution of the situation and coordinate all necessary measures.

“For on-site assessment and risk monitoring, a special vehicle from the Fire Department was sent to the area, the crew performing reconnaissance, monitoring and operational support missions. The situation is being closely monitored by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Department for Emergency Situations, which are in constant contact with the Inspectorate for Emergency Situations and the Tulcea Prefect’s Institution. We appeal to the population in the area to remain calm and strictly follow the instructions of the local authorities and the intervention crews. We would like to emphasize that all intervention forces are mobilized and prepared to manage the situation and protect the population and property, ensuring a rapid and efficient response. Our teams are constantly monitoring the evolution of the situation.”

Russia launched a drone attack near the border with Romania on the night of Sunday, November 16, towards Monday, November 17. The Ministry of Defense announced that no incursions into the national airspace were detected.

“The forces of the Russian Federation attacked, on the night of Sunday, November 16, towards Monday, November 17, areas of Ukraine located in the vicinity of the river border with Romania. The monitoring and radar surveillance systems of the Ministry of National Defense detected and tracked targets that evolved in the Ukrainian airspace, in the vicinity of Tulcea County. The MApN notified the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, regarding the establishment of measures to alert the population in the north of the county (the area of ​​the Ismail locality).

At 2:30 AM, a RO-Alert message was sent. No unauthorized entries into national airspace were detected,” the Ministry of National Defense (MApN) announced on Facebook Monday morning.

MApN forces will carry out investigations today “in areas where risks may arise as a result of last night’s situation. Allied structures are also being informed in real time about situations at the border with Ukraine.”

“The Ministry of National Defense remains firm in condemning these attacks carried out by the Russian Federation against Ukrainian civilian targets and infrastructure elements, which are unjustified and are in serious violation of international law,” the source added.

According to the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (ISU), at 2:30 AM, the IGSU issued a Ro-Alert message for people in the northern part of Tulcea County, after the Air Force General Staff announced that multiple targets were approaching Romania’s border. Residents were warned about the possibility of falling objects from the airspace and advised to take safety and shelter measures.

More at the link.

The Donbas:

🔥 The special unit “Prymary” of the DIU continues to disable Russian air-defense systems, now in the Donbas region. Over the past two weeks, operators have struck:

• a Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system,
• a 55K6 command post from an S-400 system,
• a 9S18M1-3 radar from a Buk-M3 system.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 7:03 AM

Kostiantynivka:

Soldiers of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade “Kholodnyi Yar” have shown footage of Kostyantynivka, which the Russian occupiers are wiping off the face of the earth, showing no regard for human life.
t.me/c/2131394612…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 11:43 AM

Donetsk Oblast:

The Martlet unmanned systems battalion of the 31st Mechanized Brigade struck a Russian BM-27 “Uragan” multiple rocket launcher system. The equipment was hit near the villages of Vilne Pole and Pryvilne in the Donetsk region, 15 kilometers from the line of contact.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 4:44 AM

Russia:

Russia’s flagship oil price plunged to the lowest in over 2 1/2 years, as low as $36.61 a barrel, last week, with days to go until US sanctions are due to hit the nation’s two largest producers – Bloomberg reports.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 9:57 AM

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

In the Kursk region, drones visited the “Zinkum” plant, which produces zinc and chemical materials for the military equipment, ammunition, and electronics of the Russian occupiers.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 17, 2025 at 3:51 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

The homeless cats are very excited this morning as Denis arrived to refill the Hachiko feeding station in Chornobaivka 😻 This is next to the destroyed Kherson airport, and we have to move fast to avoid Russian drones.

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) November 15, 2025 at 10:09 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,362: More Missiles on Monday AfternoonPost + Comments (10)

War for Ukraine Day 1,214: Ukraine’s Defense Continues Regardless of Where the World’s Attention Is at the Moment

by Adam L Silverman|  June 22, 20259:56 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Don’t forget: russia is waging a genocidal war against Ukraine.
Right now.
Still.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM

As the world focuses on the escalating war between Israel and Iran, the war in Ukraine has not paused. Russia continues its brutal campaign, targeting civilians. These images, taken and shared with us by volunteer Jana, show the aftermath of recent strikes in Pokrovsk area

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 8:24 PM

Which is why air raid alerts are up for all of north central Ukraine to eastern Ukraine at 3:40 AM local time/8:40 PM EDT and the air raid alert maps are indicating that Russian guided aerial bombs have been launched at Ukrainian targets in both Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.

We are expecting to be hit with 200-250 russian drones tonight. Over 90 are already in Ukrainian air space.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 3:59 PM

The cost:

Another similar horrific case of the Ukrainian defender dying less than a month after returning home. Valerii Zelenskyy from the Luhansk oblast spent three years in russian captivity. He couldn’t recover from the inhuman treatment there.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:29 AM

Before we continue, just a quick note regarding the ongoing strategic mess involving the US, Israel, and Iran. From statements made by Bibi, his Defense and Foreign Ministers, and other members of his extremist governing coalition, we know that Israel has two strategic objectives: 1) destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and 2) regime change. Neither of these can be accomplished by Israel. Neither of them can be accomplished by Airpower. Not even by US Airpower. Frankly, it is NOT possible by a combination of Airpower and Landpower. As I wrote in 2018, Iran is a human geography trap that would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a kid’s party. Israel has no ability to project its own Landpower into Iran. The land component of the IDF is exhausted. It is designed for no more than 90 days of continuous operation once the reserves are called up. It has now been operating for over twenty months in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. About a week or so ago another group of Israeli Air Force reservists resigned in protest of what Bibi and his extremist coalition government is doing. We know that the US is not good at undertaking the type of operations that would be required to undertake regime change through boots on the ground. We don’t have the bodies and I suspect that with the exception of the British, we wouldn’t be able to put together a multinational coalition to help this time.

As I’ve also written before, a proper translation of Long Dead Carl’s maxim is that “war is politics with other means.” Bibi has been trying to get the US to undertake regime change in the US since the early 1980s. And to go to war with Iran on his behalf because Iran is “a year away from having a nuclear weapon” since 1995. We’ve all seen the video clips and montages of Bibi making these statements in English. Sometimes before Congress. Bibi has a vision for the Middle East. One that can only be accomplished by politics with other means. And he would prefer that the bill be paid not in Israeli blood and treasure, but in America’s dearest currency. Hamas’s attack on 7 OCT 2023 combined with the extremist governing coalition he has built, Biden’s inability to realistically see and understand what Bibi was doing, and now Trump’s return to the presidency have provided Bibi with the opportunity he has long sought. An opportunity that he was taught by his father to believe is his destiny to seize. Bibi’s megalomaniacal belief that he is a world historic figure and the only legitimate leader of Israel and world Jewry is not an achievable strategic objective. It isn’t a strategic objective at all. Whether last night’s US strike on Iran is really a one off or more strikes will eventually happen, there’s no achievable strategic objectives for the US to achieve here or to help the Israelis achieve. There’s just more politics with other means.

Speaking of:

Zelenskyy: We have evidence Russians are preparing military operations in Europe.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 9:37 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

There Must Be No Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World – Address by the President

22 June 2025 – 22:45

Dear Ukrainians!

It was an eventful day. At this moment, rescue operations are still ongoing in Kramatorsk at the site of a Russian strike. Aerial bombs – right on the city, right on residential buildings. People were trapped under the rubble. All necessary emergency services were deployed. As of now, it is known that four people were injured – including a child. Tragically, four people were killed in this Russian attack. My condolences go out to all families and loved ones. I am also expecting a full report on the consequences and all circumstances of the Russian missile strike on a training ground in the south of Ukraine. This strike took place today. Unfortunately, it is not the first such attack. Tragically, there are killed and wounded. Full accountability is required.

Today, I had an extended conversation with Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko – in particular, about the protection of our positions on the front line and the use of our drones by the units of the National Guard of Ukraine. Today, I also spoke with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Everything must be set up in a systematic way so that Russian drones – Russian reconnaissance drones – are destroyed, and destroyed as swiftly as possible. This week, I will also speak separately with partners about additional funding for the production of interceptor drones. Interceptors, frontline drones, fiber-optic drones, and all types of drones used to strike targets on Russian territory must be funded in a way that delivers real impact. This will be ensured – and we’ve already secured preliminary agreements with some of our partners, particularly a number of European countries.

Today, Norway’s Minister of Defense visited Ukraine. A decision has been reached to invest $400 million in our production – new funding, primarily for drones. We are working together to create all the necessary conditions to produce air defense systems in Ukraine – jointly with partners, jointly with Norway. Steps in that direction are being taken. An office has already been opened in Ukraine by one of Europe’s largest defense companies – Norway’s largest, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. We are expediting all processes to the maximum extent. Today, I also received detailed reports from our intelligence services – the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and the Foreign Intelligence Service. First and foremost, they concerned Russia’s intentions and our defense against them. The key objective Moscow is pursuing is to undermine sanctions. They are using all available methods to bargain not only to prevent new sanctions from being imposed, but also to weaken existing ones. We understand how and whom they use in Europe and other parts of the world. We are countering these efforts. I thank everyone who advances the sanctions agenda, despite everything. Because this is the agenda that brings peace closer.

One more thing. Today, I received reports on the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region, following U.S. strikes on facilities linked to the Iranian regime’s nuclear program. A regime that has done so much to bail out Putin. Right now, new waves of “Shahed” drones are in the skies over Ukraine. We all clearly remember where Russia got such weapons. Iran’s decisions to support Russia have brought massive destruction and devastating human losses to our country, and to many others. This truly must stop. And it must absolutely not be reinforced with nuclear weapons. There must be no proliferation of nuclear weapons in the modern world. This must be emphasized. It is important that there is American resolve on this, the resolve of President Trump. It must also be stressed that diplomacy has to start working. Working everywhere: in the Middle East, in the Gulf region, and here in Europe – in Ukraine. If Putin spurns every peace proposal, including those from the United States, it’s hardly surprising that Tehran is also rebuffing them for now. But all of them must feel what real international solidarity means, and that any spread of terror is unacceptable. What is needed is real, lasting security – truly reliable security. Thank you to everyone helping bring it about. Thank you to everyone standing with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 207 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked once again. ✅

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM

Day 207 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked once again. ✅

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM

Two young women are hospitalized after a car deliberately ran over peaceful protesters this evening in Tbilisi.

Has happened quite a lot in Serbia but I don’t recall this in Georgia before.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM

Georgian activist Saba Baghdavadze was just released after serving 30 days in jail—for firing a firework into the sky. Hugging him is the sister of the judge who sentenced him. 🥹

🎥 Dodie Kharkheli

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:04 PM

Two young women are hospitalized after a car deliberately ran over peaceful protesters this evening in Tbilisi.

Has happened quite a lot in Serbia but I don’t recall this in Georgia before.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM

🇺🇸 This morning, Trump confirmed U.S. strikes on 3 key nuclear sites in Iran.

🇬🇪 GD’s illegitimate govt stays silent.

Last summer, PM Kobakhidze stood at Iran’s inauguration – as “Death to the U.S., Death to Israel” echoed – and also attended the ex-president’s funeral.

📌Video archive: TV Pirveli

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 22, 2025 at 6:01 AM

Germany:

German aid helps Ukraine develop hypersonic missile able to destroy Russian bunkers up to 300 km behind the front.

Germany’s €5 billion aid package funded the Hrim-2’s domestic development, which has a payload double that of the US-supplied ATACMS.
euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/23/f…

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:00 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

Here, as Ukraine ramps up its long-range strike capabilities, a breakthrough is taking shape, with German funding powering Ukraine’s first hypersonic missile launch. Backed by a five-billion-euro defense package, Ukraine’s Hrim-2 [thunder in Ukrainian] hypersonic missile is now entering serial production, marking a bold new chapter in Ukraine’s ability to hit deep behind Russian lines.

Ukraine has officially announced the development of its own domestically produced ballistic missile, the HRIM-2. After over a decade of delayed progress due to funding issues, the missile system is now entering serial production, accelerated by international military and financial support since the start of the full-scale war.

Notably, Germany has provided a new five-billion-euro defense package, which includes significant investments in the domestic production of Ukrainian long-range weapon systems, including the development and production of the new ballistic missile. This aid enabled the Ukrainians not only to develop the missile but also to initiate serial production of the Hrim-2 immediately after its development.

Notably, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also announced that they had already conducted a successful field test of the missile. Ukrainians shared footage of this strike, adding that it was used to destroy a Russian command post on the east bank of the Dnipro River delta. This means that the Hrim-2 system is combat-tested and fully operational, opening the possibility of an increased number of similar precision strikes against Russian military targets deep behind the frontline.

The Hrim-2 is launched from a specialized ground vehicle that fires it into the air using a solid propellant rocket engine, before following a set ballistic trajectory towards a stationary target. The Hrim-2 has an operational range of 300 kilometers and can reach speeds of up to Mach 5.2, or nearly 1.8 kilometers per second, making it a hypersonic missile.

The 400-kilogram warhead allows for the destruction of hardened bunkers, logistics hubs, airbases, and ammunition depots, especially because these are stationary targets that are easy to trace. The capability of Hrim-2 to carry a heavy warhead for strikes within a 300-kilometer range marks a major leap forward for the Ukrainian precision strike capabilities, as the warhead is twice as big as that of Atacms, which Ukrainians were previously dependent on for similar precision strikes.

Interestingly, these capabilities bring it comparably close to the Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, which have a similar payload of around 400 kilograms, while the Ukrainian Hrim-2 might soon catch up with or even exceed the Russians’ range of 400 kilometers as development continues.

The fact that it is launched from a mobile transport vehicle gives Ukrainians the ability to quickly move to a firing position, fire the missile hundreds of kilometers away from the frontline, and pull back before the Russians can strike back. Its immense speed of 1.8kilometers per second is nearly twice as fast as the Atacms, and allows it to strike at its maximum range in under 3 minutes.

Furthermore, while Russian air defenses like the S-300 and S-400 are able to intercept targets at this speed on paper, as a missile enters the hypersonic range, a successful interception becomes increasingly unlikely. 

The fact that the Hrim-2 ballistic missile is a completely domestic product of the Ukrainian military industry, without a reliance on foreign components, makes it possible to quickly produce and fire in large numbers, costing 3 million US dollars, or 2.6 million euros, a piece.

More at the link.

Norway:

Do you also love Norway as much as I do?

A friend in need is a REAL FRIEND. 🇺🇦♥️🇳🇴

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:57 PM

Back to Ukraine.

Interception of the Russian Shahed by the Ukrainian Mi-24.
t.me/YT29JTacRome…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM

Kyiv:

Fascist Russian/Iranian Shahed attack drones (red arrows) converging on Kyiv. Going by previous attacks, there’s a strong possibility of a follow-up missile attack later on, though I haven’t seen any reports of bombers in the air. Most likely it would be ballistics.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 7:19 PM

Warning of ballistic missile attack on Kyiv: Just heard three air bursts… then a fourth, loud enough to set off car alarms. And another three air bursts… another loud blast, more car alarms. Reports of more launches of ballistics…

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 7:35 PM

In the Kyiv region, private houses are on fire in different areas following the russian drone and missile attack 🤬

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 8:00 PM

Fascist Russian attack on Kyiv now: A drone approaches; then, far off, you hear the howl of a siren on another drone as it enters its attack dive, like a Nazi dive-bomber, and the loud blast as it hits. The Doppler effect meanwhile indicates the nearby drone is heading away…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:02 PM

Kharkiv:

Russian drone just flew by, and I didn’t hear it until it was right above 🫥 they seem to be flying high again.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:02 PM

Kramatorsk:

4 bodies were recovered from the rubble in Kramatorsk after yet another Russian strike on the city last night. Search and rescue effort continues.

Russia continues its relentless campaign of bombing Ukrainian cities and killing civilians every single day!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:52 PM

Andriivka, Sumy Oblast:’

Ukrainian Forces liberate Andriivka in Sumy Region counteroffensive #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) June 22, 2025 at 11:04 AM

From UA Wire:

Ukrainian armed forces have launched a counteroffensive in the Sumy region, successfully liberating the village of Andriivka from Russian troops. According to analysts from DeepState, the village has been cleared of Russian troops and is now back under Ukrainian control.

As recently as Saturday, June 21, Andriivka—located in the Khotin municipal community of the Sumy district and just 5 km from the Russian border—was still under Russian control. Now, the 3.89 square km area has been fully liberated, marking a crucial victory for Ukrainian forces.

DeepState reports that after prolonged battles and clearance operations, soldiers from the 225th Independent Assault Regiment took control of the village. These strategic actions also served to divert Russian forces from other settlements, halting further Russian advancement towards Khotin and Pysarivka. Following the victory, Ukraine deployed the 110th Independent Mechanized Brigade named after General Khourunzhyi Marko Bezruchko to secure the area.

In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have repelled 17 attacks from invaders on the North-Slobozhansk and Kursk directions, according to the General Staff. The Russians launched 12 airstrikes and used 26 guided aerial bombs, along with 260 artillery strikes, eight from multiple launch rocket systems.

At the same time, Senior Lieutenant “Alex” of the Ukrainian Defense Forces notes that despite the liberation of Andriivka, challenges remain. “Andiivka is liberated but the situation has not become easier. As I said, this is Volchansk direction 2.0,” the military officer emphasized.

More at the link.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

2xAASM Hammer strike on Russian target, Kursk region. t.me/BaluHUB777/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:10 PM

The Zaporizhzhia front:

Russian Fuel train on the Zaporizhzhia front targeted by FPV drones.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:37 AM

Another video shows a burning Russian train with fuel tanks for the army in Zaporizhzhia region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:50 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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@patron__dsns

Один мінус все-таки є🤭 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – 🌷

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

There is still one minus🤭#песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,214: Ukraine’s Defense Continues Regardless of Where the World’s Attention Is at the MomentPost + Comments (31)

Excellent Read: Return of the Mad King

by Anne Laurie|  June 22, 20253:10 pm| 124 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Iran, Trump Crime Cartel

Trump said you can measure a presidency by the wars you avoid, and for once he was right. Saturday's Iran bombing was the exclamation point on his abject failure
Trump is copying dictators from Mussolini to Putin in seeking glory through pointless war. My new column www.inquirer.com/opinion/dona…

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— Will Bunch (@willbunch.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:44 PM



Will Bunch, at the Philadelphia Inquirer – “A mad king’s pointless war is where Donald Trump was always heading”:

“We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”
— Donald Trump’s second inaugural address, Jan. 20

In a sense, you gotta hand it to Donald Trump. America’s 45th and 47th president — and first dictator — may have made 30,573 false or misleading claims in his first term, but he started his second term with arguably the most prescient and honest words he’s uttered since descending from his golden escalator 10 years and one week ago.

A mad king’s impulsive, unchecked decision on Saturday to send waves of U.S. B-2 bombers halfway around the globe to drop the world’s most powerful nonnuclear bombs on three targets inside Iran is indeed a perfect way to measure Trump’s success after just over five months back in the White House.

And by every measure, Trump 47 has been an abject failure.

One week after 5 million Americans flooded the streets for a massive “No Kings” protest, with his approval rating heading underwater faster than the next climate-fueled flash flood, with his masked-secret-police deportation drive starting to alienate his own voters, with gas prices and 20-something unemployment starting to soar, and almost zero legislation despite GOP control of Congress, Trump showed that even a POTUS who hates canines can still wag the dog.

It took another epic failure — the inability of any of America’s democratic institutions since World War II to constrain the war-making abilities of an “imperial president,” which is a polite euphemism for “emperor” — to give Trump this option: to try and reinvent his disastrous reign by picking up the phone and ordering death and destruction 6,500 miles away…

The current wave of death in both Iran and Israel probably could have been avoided if not for another arbitrary and pointless Trump decision: to rip up Obama’s Iran deal in 2018. Not because that made the world safer. But because Trump — who showed his true self yet again last week in failing to observe the federal Juneteenth holiday — was on a mission to undo every achievement of the first Black president.

The truth is that another foreign war is always where Trump was going to take America, no matter what horse manure about world peace he spread during his 2024 presidential campaign. That’s because starting wars is what ego-driven personalist “strongmen” do — to stake their dubious claim on both national and personal greatness, to change the focus from domestic disasters and the suffering of their own people, and to create the perfect excuse to silence dissent and a free press in “the homeland.”…

This is not a time for Americans to “rally ‘round the flag” — not for a war being waged on behalf of one American and not the other 339,999,999. This is a moment for resistance and for accountability, in whatever ways are possible today, and more forcefully once the people can take our country back. And it starts with this basic understanding: that Trump is revealing the fallacy behind “strongman” rule.

He bombed Iran because he is a weak man.

Excellent Read: Return of the Mad KingPost + Comments (124)

War for Ukraine Day 976: Odesa Under Attack

by Adam L Silverman|  October 26, 20248:31 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is continuing to slowly do better. Though she is milking it a bit regarding her food. Tonight she got a freshly cooked hamburger. Last night she got a freshly cooked chicken breast. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, despite a nap yesterday, and about ten hours of sleep overnight, I’m still fried. I’m trying not to nod off as I type this, so I’m just going to run through the basics again so I can rack out. I’ll get to that other stuff tomorrow night.

Russian opened up on Odesa with a ballistic missile earlier today.

Loud explosion over central
Odesa. Media reporting Crimea-launched ballistic missile. Shortly after earlier drone attack in the region. pic.twitter.com/zUJM0HMPqV

— Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) October 26, 2024

People ceilings fell down from blast wave not even at attack point #Odesa pic.twitter.com/nbtzI1YYSr

— Twin Anna Pirates MD (@AnnaOdesitka) October 26, 2024

Here’s a partial butcher’s bill from Russia’s genocidal attack on Ukrainian civilians and civilian facilities last night:

#Kyiv
A missile hit a high-rise
Girl, 15, killed
6 injured#Dnipro
3 killed (1 child)
19 injured (4 kids)
1 child lost an arm…#Kherson
2 killed by artillery
1 man by a drone

That’s just overnight and incomplete; numbers still coming in #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/fHURDaACJC

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 26, 2024

It you’re wondering why Ukraine needs to retake their Russian occupied territories, it is not just to restore Ukraine’s legitimate, internationally recognized borders. It is also to push Russia’s military back as far as possible to deny the Russians the ability to attack Ukraine from closer range.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Expect the Necessary Increase in Pressure on Russia and More Support for Ukraine – Address by the President

26 October 2024 – 20:02

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, efforts were still underway to clear the rubble in Dnipro after the Russian strike. More than 20 people were injured by the strike – all have received the necessary assistance. But tragically, five people were killed, including a child. In Kyiv, a girl died as a result of a strike by “Shahed” drones – she was fourteen years old. My condolences to all families and loved ones.

Today, the town of Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region was attacked. Four police officers were injured. There were also shellings in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, the Donetsk region was under attack, the south of our state: Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, our Kherson region.

Each of these days of war proves only that Moscow is determined to continue its aggression. They want nothing else there. That is why they are trying to increase their defense production, and specifically by circumventing sanctions. That is why they are increasingly engaging North Korea as an ally, and any day now their soldiers may appear on the battlefield fighting against Ukraine. Ukraine will be forced to actually fight against North Korea in Europe.

These are the conditions when the lack of partners’ stronger decisions in support of Ukraine only encourages Putin to invest further in terror. The world is capable of stopping the war from unfolding. Abstractions and words are not enough for this – concrete steps are needed.

We have provided all such steps in the Victory Plan. Something that will prevent further aggression by the culprits of the war. We expect the necessary increase in pressure on Russia. We expect more support for Ukraine. This will be only fair. And the time that passes while there are no decisions – unfortunately, this translates to constant Russian strikes and constant losses of our lives.

Next week will be the time of our very intense work with partners, first of all, to support our warriors, warriors at the front, and to implement our strategy of forcing Russia to end the war. We are preparing major signals of support.

Today, I want to highlight the efforts of our various people who work every day and night to defend Ukrainians from Russian strikes. Who provide assistance and always protect lives.

Dnipro: the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Dnipro region, and especially Yevhen Panchuk, Dmytro Sauliak, Dmytro Luchka, Oleksandr Tykva. Also, National Police officers Oleksii Skakun and Karyna Aliieva. Thank you and your colleagues!

Sumy and the region: Oleksandr Matviienko, Vitalii Kaplun, Yurii Kostiuk – these are employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the region. Also, police officers: Serhii Zarutskyi and Hennadii Tereshchenko. Thank you, guys!

Kherson region: rescuers Oleh Zasymenko, Kostiantyn Naboka, Dmytro Volkov and Mykola Katruk. As well as police captains – both serving in KORD – Dmytro Hmyria and Andriy Kotliuba. Thank you!

Kharkiv region: the guys who work in groups to evacuate people from danger zones, employees of the State Emergency Service – Volodymyr Zatirka, Yevhen Afoniv, Serhii Kachanenko. And the National Police of Ukraine: Serhii Huskov and Uliian Pihal. Thank you for your round-the-clock work and real service to people and Ukraine.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine, who stands with our people; every warrior. I thank those who defend our state, hold our Ukrainian positions and destroy the occupier with all their might! We must definitely defend Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Troyanivska Mariyka was killed by a russian drone yesterday in Kyiv.
She was only 15 and studied in the 9th grade. https://t.co/OE39jDY10W pic.twitter.com/WyDkU1v5H4

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 26, 2024

Here’s the full machine translated text of the quoted tweet:

Troyanivska Mariyka was killed by a Russian drone yesterday.

She was only 15, studied in the 9th grade of the “Prestige” lyceum of the Solomyansk district.

…a leader and inspiration for the entire Lyceum..

Our district, Kyiv, Ukraine and the world have lost their future.

Irreversible loss.
Condolences to the family and loved ones.

The reason:

Ukrainian symbols serve as talismans for our soldiers at the frontlines.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/lAdxAU6qMv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 25, 2024

I posted recently about this brave mother who waited for her son to return from Russian captivity.

Here is the moment of them finally meeting again after 30 months apart.

What they had to live through…

📹: ludafeduseva/TikTok https://t.co/Uikj6oS6sm pic.twitter.com/rMPtyd9tgi

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 26, 2024

Georgia:

The atmosphere at Georgia’s crucial elections, viewed by both sides as an existential choice, is highly tense. The ruling GD party frames it as a choice between war and peace, while the opposition sees it as a decision between a pro-European or pro-Russian path 1/7 pic.twitter.com/npPuQr6UB5

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

The elections are existential not only for the country as a whole but for the opposition too. If the ruling party wins, the main anti-GD force, United National Movement, faces the threat of being banned and likely prosecuted 3/7

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

Voter turnout is above 50%, higher than the last two elections but slightly below that in 2012, when the GD-led coalition ousted the previous parliament under Mikheil Saakashvili 5/7 pic.twitter.com/YR3oU03f1o

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

The pre-election polls are as polarised as the media landscape here. As a result, the opposition is convinced that the ruling party will not get more than 35%, while the GD itself is sure that it will with at least 60% percent. Confrontation seems almost inevitable 7/7

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

Hugely important vote this weekend in Georgia. My @FT colleagues @hallbenjamin @NastyaStognei wrote yesterday, ‘The country is holding elections that could decide whether it tilts towards Moscow or Brussels. Observers fear that violence may follow.’ Seems that violence is already… https://t.co/8xyvbx421q

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 26, 2024

Hugely important vote this weekend in Georgia. My @FT colleagues @hallbenjamin @NastyaStognei wrote yesterday, ‘The country is holding elections that could decide whether it tilts towards Moscow or Brussels. Observers fear that violence may follow.’ Seems that violence is already rearing its head. https://ft.com/content/8f9add86-863d-4d60-adfa-bc82382ed20d

The first preliminary results from Georgia have been released.

With 70% of precincts counted, the ruling Georgian Dream party gets 52.99% of the vote

The main opposition forces — the Coalition for Change and the UNM — receive 11.2% and 9.83%, respectively pic.twitter.com/kVvGVGZXo9

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

Polling stations have closed in Georgia.
Data from exit-polls is contradictory.
President Zourabichvili says the opposition has won, PM of Hungary Orban congratulates the “Georgian Dream” (current ruling party).

The situation in Georgia is rather tense.
According to polls,… https://t.co/Rx7BN1V3vd pic.twitter.com/TfRG4QpNgm

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 26, 2024

Polling stations have closed in Georgia.
Data from exit-polls is contradictory.
President Zourabichvili says the opposition has won, PM of Hungary Orban congratulates the “Georgian Dream” (current ruling party).

The situation in Georgia is rather tense.
According to polls, people’s moods are mixed and contradicting. While Georgians are afraid of a war with Russia (and the “Georgian Dreams” uses that to its advantage), most Georgians are pro-EU integration and, at the very least, do not want to lose their visa-free access to the Schengen Area.

Geopolitical stakes are very high:

If “Georgian Dream” remains in power, monumental changes in the Caucasus region cannot be ruled out.

The Kremlin has been hinting for quite some time that it can approve the return of South Ossetia and Abkhazia into Georgia with a special status and broad rights.
If that happens, Ivanishvili (head of “Georgian Dream”) will be able to announce the “restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity.”

Moscow is very keen on having a pro-Russian Georgian government. That would mean a key country in the Caucasus in the Russian sphere of influence. Crucial logistical routes go through there (e.g., the route of oil transport from the Caspian Sea into Turkey and Europe). It would also mean the possibility to restore railroad connection of Russia with Armenia, and then, all the way up to Iran. So that, in turn, would mean a direct land corridor between Russia and Iran.

Then, a transport corridor (North-South). Russia (North) – Caucasus – Iran – India – Sri Lanka. So, Georgia is a key element in Russia’s potential ability to influence India.

Tbilisi turning around would definitely influence Armenia’s geopolitical course – it will then be completely surrounded either by enemy countries (Azerbaijan and Turkey) or by Russia’s allies (Iran and Georgia).

But the most important consequence of pro-Russian powers winning in Georgia is that Russia would showcase itself as the only one able to guarantee security and territorial integrity of post-Soviet states. Even for those with whom it previously waged wars.

A lot of people fully realize how dangerous the victory of the “Russian world” would be, so the fight at the Georgian elections was intense. We will see how events will unfold.

We trust in the democratic Georgia. Waiting for official results.

📹: supporters of the ruling party in Georgia celebrate their victory

Things are not looking good in Georgia. Georgian Dream is an oligarch funded and run pro-Putin/pro-Russian political party. They have become increasingly unpopular and, in response, increasingly tyrannical. A chunk of Georgia has been occupied by Russia since August 2008. I have served with the Georgians in Iraq, but I honestly do not know what is going to happen if Georgian Dream remains in power, consolidates control, and cracks down further.

North Korea:

‘“We expect the troops will mainly be deployed in Kursk and consist of mainly special units from the North Korean army,” Brekelmans said, adding that the first deployment was a way for Russia to test the troops and to gauge international reaction.’ https://t.co/UMd2c4jl5U

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 25, 2024

The Cyprus Mail has the details:

Dutch intelligence has confirmed that Russia has deployed at least 1,500 troops from North Korea to fight in the Ukrainewar, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said Friday.

Moscow has not denied previous U.S. claims that North Korea had sent troops to Russia, a move that the West is casting as a significant escalation of the war.

“We expect the troops will mainly be deployed in Kursk and consist of mainly special units from the North Korean army,” Brekelmans said, adding that the first deployment was a way for Russia to test the troops and to gauge international reaction.

Kursk is a Russian city near the Ukrainian border where Ukrainian forces staged a major incursion in August.

Iran:

Major knock-on effect of Israeli strikes on Iran is that Iran won’t be able to supply Russia with new ballistic missiles for many months until it rebuilds its manufacturing capabilities

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) October 26, 2024

The EU:

“Officials briefed on the discussions say there is no possibility EU militaries could match what the US is providing” to Ukraine. https://t.co/RAzjyuvgkh Other things being equal, yes. But in longer term, Europeans have agency on defence spending, industry, etc.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 25, 2024

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

EU capitals are racing to draw up assessments of the bloc’s biggest vulnerabilities if Donald Trump is re-elected to the White House, as polls suggest the contest is tilting in the former president’s favour.

Senior EU officials are holding daily meetings to outline where a Trump presidency could cause the most pain for the bloc, said people familiar with the talks.

They said topics under discussion included how to withstand a barrage of trade tariffs, offset an end to US aid to Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia if Washington lifts its restrictions.

“Everyone is taking everything much more seriously,” said one senior EU diplomat. “We are trying to make sure we will not be taken by surprise.”

The preparations include formal talks between EU ambassadors and the staff of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, as well as informal groups of senior EU diplomats considering possible strategies.

Trump has vowed to impose flat 10 per cent tariffs on all imports and is critical of US support for Kyiv and sceptical of Nato, which underpins Europe’s defence.

Polling suggests he is in a dead heat against vice-president Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 election, and has overtaken his Democratic rival as the candidate Americans trust most with the economy, according to a Financial Times poll released this week.

“In my personal point of view, we will be in trouble. Deep trouble,” another EU diplomat said of a Trump win. “This disruptive element will be huge, and the unpredictability will be huge.”

The biggest short-term security concern of EU officials is how to continue support to Ukraine if Trump cuts off a flow of weapons that has played a vital role in helping Kyiv thwart Russia’s invasion.

The EU has provided more financial support to Ukraine than the US. But American weapons stockpiles and capabilities are far larger than European countries’. Officials briefed on the discussions say there is no possibility EU militaries could match what the US is providing.

Officials in the bloc are also deeply concerned that a Trump administration would lift sanctions on Russia. That would raise the question of how much economic pressure the EU could maintain on Moscow without US support, even if Japan, the UK and other allies kept sanctions in place.

Trump’s scepticism towards Nato has also exacerbated long-running fears about European reliance on US security guarantees.

“Right now we are arguing amongst ourselves about how to raise €100bn for defence and whether we really need to,” said another EU diplomat, referring to the bloc’s debate about a joint debt issue. “If Trump wins, we’ll instead be talking about €1tn and it won’t be optional.”

The EU talks to prepare for a possible Trump return to the White House have intensified over the past month. They follow von der Leyen’s decision this year to form a small in-house war room to prepare for the US election result, focused mainly on trade and security issues.

More at the link.

Ukraine’s air defense is doing yeoman’s work, but air defense is never perfect:

Russia launched a total of 11,466 missiles at Ukraine between Sept. 2022 and Sept. 2024: an average of over 23 missiles launched daily, per @CSIS. (Ukraine, interestingly, has intercepted 79.8 percent of those) https://t.co/vePyG60Npa

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) October 25, 2024

From CSIS:

Ukraine is under siege from Russian firepower strikes and needs additional Western military aid, expanded sanctions against Moscow’s allies, intelligence support, and long-range strike authorization to defend its citizens.

From September 28, 2022, to September 1, 2024, Russia launched a total of 11,466 missiles. On average, 23.2 missiles were launched daily, with the median number of daily launches recorded at 17 missiles. This indicates that while the daily launch rate typically hovered around the mid-20s, there were numerous days with significantly higher activity. Notably, there were 17 days during the study period when missile launches exceeded 82 missiles in a single day. These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives, or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of heightened conflict intensity.

This analysis is based on data compiled by Petro Ivaniuk. The dataset is available at Kaggle. CSIS has verified that the data aligns with the official numbers published by Ukraine’s Air Force social media accounts. The analysis in this paper covers the period from September 2022 to September 2024.

The data reveals that the daily intercept rate averaged 83.5 percent, with the median intercept rate reaching 88.5 percent. This high level of intercept efficiency suggests the deployment of advanced missile defense technologies capable of neutralizing a substantial portion of incoming threats on most days. When evaluating the overall intercept rate across the entire study period, it stands at 79.8 percent. This aggregated figure, which is the total intercept rate of the launched missiles, while slightly lower than the daily averages, demonstrates that Ukraine has been successful at defending its skies, both due to Western support and indigenous programs like the acoustic air defense network.

The analysis of missile deployment during the Russia-Ukraine war reveals a significant diversity in the types of missile models employed by Russian forces. The dataset encompasses 52 distinct missile model entries, which include both individual models and combinations of multiple models. This diversity underscores the multifaceted offensive capabilities and strategic flexibility maintained throughout the conflict. While the dataset lists 52 missile model entries, many entries represent combinations of multiple models. After deconstructing these combinations, there are 36 unique missile models identified. This diversity reflects an operational approach to firepower strikes of combining different models like long-range attack drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles to complicate the ability of Ukraine to defend its skies. Of note, many of these unique combinations were launched from different geographic sites further complicating air defense.

Much more at the link.

Selydove:

Updated map showing further Russian advances in Selydove, north of Vuhledar, and north of Zolota Nyva. https://t.co/kRsB0C3n7e https://t.co/1MwmenCOSc pic.twitter.com/qVrjtC0OFL

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 26, 2024

The Kerch Strait:

/2. Russian helicopter which crashed in the Kerch Strait likely was a Mi-28. pic.twitter.com/mcgnj6x9oa

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 26, 2024

Kyiv:

Barbaric Russian attack on Ukraine tonight kills two children and two women. Yet some still buy into Russia’s ‘guardian of Christianity’ lies. pic.twitter.com/qbDOqTMBQd

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 26, 2024

Dnipro:

“That’s it, Yulia, dear, we saved you!” – Ukrainian rescuers’ gentle words as they pulled a young woman from rubble in Dnipro. Their voices kept her conscious through the rescue.

But the same Russian missile strike killed 3 others, including a child. pic.twitter.com/BYRBx8Fu35

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 26, 2024

The death toll in Dnipro has risen to 5 following yesterday’s russian attack on the city. https://t.co/5bJYVGI7x6 pic.twitter.com/YAhZmYgOMq

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 26, 2024

Lyptsi:

Lyptsi is a village in the #Kharkiv region that has borne many scars from Russia’s constant shelling.

This is the local hospital, which was patching up blast-damaged windows in November 2023, but now stands half-destroyed. pic.twitter.com/x1keE3kR8j

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) October 25, 2024

Ryazan, Russia:

russian oil refinery in Ryazan seems to be having a party 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3qPcY1zchE

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 26, 2024

Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack and a fire in the area of Ryazan oil refinery.

This oil refinery can process over 17 million tons of oil per year. It is the third most powerful oil refinery in Russia.

Waiting for more information. pic.twitter.com/V0jrU0Y1rK

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 26, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.

☺️ pic.twitter.com/wEH92Rr6dj

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) October 23, 2024

😎 pic.twitter.com/1bv8NMWKfZ

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) October 23, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 976: Odesa Under AttackPost + Comments (12)

War for Ukraine Day 974: North Korean Special Forces Arrive in Kursk

by Adam L Silverman|  October 24, 20248:54 pm| 23 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still feeling a bit meh. Again, completely unexpected on the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday after a chemo treatment. She’s chilling on the bed with Ruby and me. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I’m fried. So, just the basics tonight. I’ll deal with the Marine vet and crooked cop from Palm Beach, Florida, now residing in Russia, and his work to ratfuck the US election for the GRU’s sabotage unit. As well as his long history doing this stuff to local officials and others who crossed him when he was a sheriff’s deputy in Florida and before he fled to Russia.

The cost:

The funeral of 14-year-old Ania, her mom Iryna and aunt Liudmyla who were killed in their own home in Sumy on the night of October 22nd by a Russian Shahed drone.

Only Ania’s father managed to survive. He was injured and is being treated at a local hospital but managed to attend… https://t.co/sMFDmPpJE4 pic.twitter.com/3Td5ZjrokW

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 24, 2024

The funeral of 14-year-old Ania, her mom Iryna and aunt Liudmyla who were killed in their own home in Sumy on the night of October 22nd by a Russian Shahed drone.

Only Ania’s father managed to survive. He was injured and is being treated at a local hospital but managed to attend the funeral.

Deepest condolences.

The first North Korean soldiers have been deployed to the front line in Kursk Oblast; South Korea could review its ban on supplying lethal arms to Ukraine; and more. https://t.co/SaZJa0mRTQ

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 24, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

The first North Korean soldiers to participate alongside Russian forces in the war against Ukraine have been deployed to the front line in Kursk Oblast, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported on Oct. 24.

North Korea has sent nearly 12,000 troops to Russia, including 500 officers and three generals. The first sightings of North Korean soldiers were recorded on Oct. 23.

These soldiers are reportedly receiving training at five military training grounds in Ekaterinoslavka, Knyaze-Volkonskoe, and Sergeevka, as well as in Ussuriysk and Ulan-Ude in eastern Russia.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov has been appointed to supervise the training and adaptation of the North Korean troops, who are given “a few weeks” to adjust, according to HUR’s report.

The North Korean military is provided with ammunition, bedding, winter clothing, footwear, and hygiene products. According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, each soldier receives 50 meters of toilet paper and 300 grams of soap each month.

Ukrainian intelligence claimed that Russia has “high hopes” for the participation of North Korean soldiers in the war.

North Korea has denied reports of North Korean troop presence in Russia, while a Kremlin spokesperson provided an evasive response.

A military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on Oct. 21 that Russian authorities detained 18 North Korean soldiers who abandoned their positions in Kursk Oblast. Video footage has also emerged, allegedly showing North Korean troops at a Russian military training camp.

Kyiv and Seoul say Moscow is planning to involve thousands of North Korean troops in its full-scale war.

“If they do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they’re fair game, they’re fair targets, and the Ukrainian military will defend themselves against North Korean soldiers the same way they’re defending themselves against Russian soldiers,” Kirby told a press briefing at the White House.

“And so the possibility that there could be dead and wounded North Korean soldiers… is absolutely real if they get deployed.”

Much more at the link.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Ukraine Now Needs to Develop the Internal Strengthening Plan, Which Will Also Guarantee Unity – President’s Address

24 October 2024 – 19:00

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, our Crimea Platform, its parliamentary dimension, is in session. I am grateful to Ruslan Stefanchuk and everyone involved in organizing the event. With more than seventy participating delegations, the platform is well-represented. This year, the platform is taking place in Latvia. Today, I addressed the summit participants and called on them to support the Victory Plan. I know that the Plan’s points have been discussed thoroughly and in detail. It is crucial that we work with our partners not only at the highest political level for the Plan’s implementation but also across all political and societal levels. It is very important to stay united and communicate our motives, needs, and ability to steer this war towards a just end as clearly as possible to the world. I would also like to highlight that today, the Crimea Platform focused heavily on the points of our Peace Formula, particularly the point on territorial integrity and implementation of the UN Charter. Today, on United Nations Day, it is important that the world does not forget about the goals and principles of the UN Charter and the purpose of creating this organization. Even though some of its officials may prioritize temptations in Kazan over the content of the UN Charter, our world is built in such a way that the rights of nations and the norms of international law do, and will continue to, matter. I thank everyone who is helping Ukraine in this regard. I also participated in the meeting of the Presidium of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities today. I called for the same level of engagement with the Victory Plan at the community level as we have at the state level. Connections between regions, communities, and cities are crucial in ensuring that the societies of other countries understand what Ukraine is capable of and how we can bring peace closer. Together.

And one more thing.

Today, I held a Staff meeting. As always, there were many different issues discussed. I want to focus on a special assignment to the members of the Staff and other officials. Right now, Ukraine needs to develop an internal Strengthening Plan. A plan that, together with the Victory Plan, will provide Ukraine with the right solutions to all the challenges of this year and next year. The Victory Plan is aimed at our partners – at their certainty regarding Ukraine’s place in the security architecture, whether they are ready for Ukraine to win, and whether the partners want to see the post-war security system really reliable. The Victory Plan – if carried out by our partners – will provide all the answers. And it’s clear that there’s also an internal part to this work. Positions on the frontline and in the rear. What needs strengthening. The issue of justice in Ukraine, which is especially pressing. Our economy – our jobs, the development of industries that are critical for Ukraine. Protection against Russian disinformation. Social protection for people. Many areas require clear answers – what steps we are taking and who is responsible for implementing specific steps. This internal Strengthening Plan will also guarantee Ukraine’s unity. When you work for the state, you feel that you are with the state, alongside millions of others who want Ukraine to win. That’s how it should be.

Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine! Glory to all our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Yemen:

“Russia provided targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year, helping the Iran-backed group assault a major artery for global trade and further destabilizing the region.” https://t.co/qaDMRGk2RF

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) October 24, 2024

From The Wall Street Journal: (emphasis mine)

Russia provided targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year, helping the Iranian-backed group assault a major artery for global trade and further destabilizing the region.

The Houthis, which began their attacks late last year over the Gaza war, eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes, said a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials. The data was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said.

The assistance, which hasn’t been previously reported, shows how far Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to go to undermine the U.S.-led Western economic and political order. Russia, in this case, supported the Iran-backed Houthis, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist group, as they carried out a series of attacks in one of the world’s most heavily traveled shipping routes.

More broadly, Russia has sought to stoke instability from the Middle East to Asia to create problems for the U.S., analysts say. The widening conflict in the Middle East, triggered by last year’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, has absorbed resources and attention at a time when Washington has sought to focus on the threats from Russia and China.

“For Russia, any flare up anywhere is good news, because it takes the world’s attention further away from Ukraine and the U.S. needs to commit resources—Patriot systems or artillery shells—and with the Middle East in play, it’s clear where the U.S. will choose,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a think tank based in Berlin.

A spokesman for the Russian government didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. A Houthi spokesman declined to comment.

In the Middle East, the Russian assistance underscores a tectonic shift in its strategy. Putin has strengthened ties with Iran, while turning a cold shoulder to his longstanding relationship with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has engaged in a growing conflict with Iran and the militias it backs in the region, such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Putin has criticized the U.S. and Israel over the Gaza conflict. On Thursday, he said the region was on the brink of a full-scale war.

The attacks caused major disruptions to global trade, as shippers diverted vessels for a period south around the Cape of Good Hope, a longer and more expensive voyage. Almost 1-in-10 barrels of oil shipped every day worldwide transit through Bab al-Mandab, the strait that separates the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean. The tanker traffic through that route was 77% lower in August 2024 compared with October 2023, according to Windward, a maritime-intelligence company.

The U.S. vowed to protect the international shipping lanes, and in December of last year launched a multinational naval coalition to escort ships traveling through the strait. By April, the U.S. had spent some $1 billion on munitions to knock out Houthi drones and missiles and protect shipping in the Red Sea. The U.S. has since gone further and earlier this month sent B-2 Spirit bombers to strike Houthi arsenals.

The U.S. has been concerned that Russia could escalate the situation further by providing the Houthis with Russian antiship or antiair missiles that could threaten the U.S. military’s efforts to protect ships in the region, but there is so far no evidence that Russia has done so.

Earlier this month, Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who had recently been released from a U.S. prison in a prisoner swap with Moscow was trying to broker the sale of about $10 million worth of automatic small arms to the Houthis, The Wall Street Journal has reported. It was unclear whether the sale had been initiated or blessed by the Kremlin.

Since the Houthis started attacking vessels connected to Israel and its allies almost a year ago, most vessels undertaking the dangerous crossing near their territories have started switching off their radio signals, complicating efforts to track them. Once a vessel goes dark, its live movements can only be continuously accessed through high-quality satellite imaging. Commercially available satellite services tend to suffer gaps in coverage and delays in transmission.

Tankers carrying Russian oil cargoes exported, including by Kremlin-connected Rosneft, have been attacked by the Houthis on several occasions. But these shipments are carried out through a so-called “ghost fleet” owned by shell companies to evade sanctions whose Russian connection is only known by a close circle of Russian oil officials and market players.

North Korean Special Forces fighting for Russia against Ukraine. Russia using Iranian and North Korean weapons. Russia helping the Houthis use force to close down global shipping.

Could be a world war waged by Russia?

Many Western officials, media, and even high-level government politicians, such as United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin himself, are trying their best to push the narrative toward “oh, Putin is in big trouble if he has to count on North Korea’s support.”

Soon 12,000… https://t.co/D6w95cA5DO pic.twitter.com/qy4YxVJalf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 24, 2024

Many Western officials, media, and even high-level government politicians, such as United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin himself, are trying their best to push the narrative toward “oh, Putin is in big trouble if he has to count on North Korea’s support.”

Soon 12,000 North Korean soldiers will begin slaughtering Ukrainians in our own homes. While for Ukraine, even in our deepest dreams we cannot imagine that anyone who calls themselves “Ukrainian partners” would send their soldiers to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukrainian soldiers to help is defend our lives from North Koreans.

The problem is that Russia’s allies help Russia solve its problems when they arise. No questions asked. No red lines. And not in the amount of a couple of teaspoons.

-Russia need attack drones? Iran is happy to provide thousands and help build a factory on Russian territory to produce thousands more.
-Russia does not have enough artillery ammunition in huge quantities? North Korea alone has already supplied 8 million artillery shells.
-Ballistic missiles? No questions asked, no long public discussions. Russia asks – Russia gets.
-Russia needs additional soldiers on the front in the tens of thousands? North Korea will send its units to fight shoulder to shoulder with the Russians. With no fear, with no redlines.

At the same time, Ukraine’s allies and partners, instead of helping Ukraine solve its problems, are trying to joke about how desperate Putin is.

Every time Ukraine asks for support in solving problem it encounters, it ends up in public discussions that drag on for years, and in the best case scenario, Ukraine will receive a few percent of what it needs to solve the problem.

One of the most striking examples is the problem of Russian aviation. For two years, many hundreds of Russian aircraft were located within range of Western missiles such as ATACMS, for two years no one lifted a finger to help solve the biggest Ukrainian problem that we cannot solve on our own. Over the past two years, the great part of Russian aviation could have been destroyed in hours, with good preparation. But it seems that Austin and Sullivan are even glad that Russia has finally redeployed its aircrafts further from the front line and now they have a great excuse why they will not do anything to help.

Dictators help each other with everything they can. Without questions. Without public discussions that last for years. Without red lines. While for Ukraine, there are only endless red lines, endless restrictions and endless fear.

Dictators unite themselves against democracies. Democracies are willing to sacrifice entire countries to dictators, just so they can stay out of it themselves. Even if only for a short time.

This is what Special Kherson Cat is referring to:

NEWS: The intelligence community and Pentagon have recommended against changing U.S. policy to allow Ukraine to strike military targets deep inside Russia with US-made long range missiles — citing greater cost than benefit.

A US official tells FOX the IC and DoD analysis showed…

— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) October 23, 2024

NEWS: The intelligence community and Pentagon have recommended against changing U.S. policy to allow Ukraine to strike military targets deep inside Russia with US-made long range missiles — citing greater cost than benefit.

A US official tells FOX the IC and DoD analysis showed a change in policy would not have a strategic impact or change the course of the war, in part because there are few targets inside of ATACMS 300-km range.

In August, the IC assessed that Russia had relocated more than 90% of its aircraft outside of ATACMS range – so it was a “misconception that it would be a solution to the glide bombs, etc.”
The recommendation is also due in part to limited shot volumes.
Ukraine doesn’t have enough ATACMS, and DoD has advised the US would not be able to further draw down from stocks without hurting US military readiness.

President Biden hasn’t ruled out a change in the future, and the U.S. has not said ‘no’ to Ukraine — but the reason Biden has not been inclined to change U.S. policy is because there would be little benefit – and potentially some cost.

“It would be irresponsible if we didn’t take into account what Russia would do,” the official said.

The official noted that Russia is a “nuclear power capable of doing very bad things both to Ukraine, and to the US” – referencing warehouses being blown up, and revelations made by the German spy chief last week that Russia was behind an attempted act of sabotage involving a parcel bomb on a plane this summer, which could have pushed Berlin and Moscow closer to direct war.
(That story here: https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/15/russia-suspected-parcel-bomb-german-plane-leipzig-disaster/)

The official reiterated, however, that concerns about escalation are not the only factor driving Biden’s thinking. If a change in policy was made, the IC assessed that Russia would reposition its assets further.

Currently the US position is shared by Germany, which has not greenlit TAURUS missiles, as well as the UK, which has not greenlit Storm Shadows.
France, however, has authorized SCALPs.

FOX is told the Biden administration is considering more sanctions in response to North Korean troops coming to Russia. The US is currently in talks with allies and partners about the best course forward, the official said.

“Ukraine does not have enough ATACMS, and […] the US would not be able to draw down additional stocks without hurting military readiness.”

Ukraine has already received hundreds of ATACMS, which could have been used to good effect on targets in Russia if Biden would allow it.… https://t.co/oRTkMnuGe4 pic.twitter.com/Oq6N8GgjuQ

— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) October 23, 2024

“Ukraine does not have enough ATACMS, and […] the US would not be able to draw down additional stocks without hurting military readiness.”

Ukraine has already received hundreds of ATACMS, which could have been used to good effect on targets in Russia if Biden would allow it.

As for readiness, if the “expired” inventory was absolutely essential to US OPLANs, then they would have SLEP’d all those missiles, but they didn’t. That suggests that DoD made a determination that they aren’t essential.

Georgia:

This cannot be swept under the rug.

The Georgian Dream is panicked. When they lose power they must be held to account.

Corruption. Georgia deserves better https://t.co/sBkZDfLsmz

— Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@AdamKinzinger) October 24, 2024

Here’s the whole thread:

BREAKING: The houses of @EtoBuziashvili and @SGelava, researchers at the Atlantic Council’s @DFRLab, are being searched. The Investigation Service of the Ministry of Finance has entered Eto’s apartment, and devices at Sopo’s home are being seized. The “investigation” is underway under three articles, just two days before Georgia’s parliamentary elections.Image
Image
“They arrived around 8 o’clock in the morning. They did not inform me that they were from the financial police; instead, they claimed to be from the gas inspection service and said there was a leak issue. About six people rushed in and immediately began searching. They took my phone and did not allow me to contact a lawyer. They were particularly interested in documentation and technology, this was their motive. The search lasted for about two hours.” @EtoBuziashvili told @FormulaGe 

“They came in the morning and informed me that financial investigations were underway involving the company I have a contract with. I work for the Atlantic Council, where I investigate government and pro-Russian interference in Georgia, as well as information operations and disinformation. They provided no further details before beginning their search, during which they seized my laptop and phone. They also took my husband’s laptop—he is a politician. At this point, we have no additional information. We have been summoned for questioning” @SGelava told @FormulaGe

formulanews.ge/News/118897

“I have been summoned for questioning. The only thing they mentioned being interested in is my organization, @AtlanticCouncil, an American non-governmental organization. We are conducting an in-depth investigation into Russian intelligence operations”— Eto added. 

The investigation has been launched into group money laundering, fraud, and tax evasion.

Ana Ghakhokidze, lawyer for Eto Buziashvili, informed RFE/RL that only a general search warrant has been issued.

Who the accused is in this case remains unknown.

„ატლანტიკური საბჭოს“ თანამშრომლების სახლებში ჩხრეკა „ფულის გათეთრებასა“ და “თაღლითობაზე“ გამოძიების ფარგლებში ჩატარდა„ატლანტიკური საბჭოს“ თანამშრომლების, სოფო გელავასა და ეთო ბუზიაშვილის სახლებში ჩხრეკა ჩატარდა გამოძიების ფარგლებში, რომელიც ფულის ჯგუფურად გათეთრებისა და ჯგუფური თაღლითობის მუხლებით მიმდინარეობს. ამერ…https://www.radiotavisupleba.ge/a/%E1%83%90%E1%83%A2%E1%83%9A%E1%83%90%E1%83%9C%E1%83%A2%E1%83%98%E1%83%99%E1%83%A3%E1%83%A0%E1%83%98-%E1%83%A1%E1%83%90%E1%83%91%E1%83%AD%E1%83%9D%E1%83%A1-%E1%83%92%E1%83%90%E1%83%9B%E1%83%9D%E1%83%AB%E1%83%98%E1%83%94%E1%83%91%E1%83%90/33171490.html

The Ministry of Finance’s investigative service says today’s searches are linked to the so-called “call centers” case. They add that investigative activities were conducted at three alleged “call center” locations, and the specified locations were searched based on a judge’s order.

For those who don’t have info about so called call Center case:civil.ge/archives/622901
Many things obviously do not make sense in how this is unfolding, I will keep reporting on these developments below.

The Ministry of Finance’s investigative service statement:is.ge/ka-ge/%E1%83%A…

I express my full solidarity with Georgia’s leading disinformation experts, @EtoBuziashvili and @SGelava.

The regime understands the importance of their research. Kremlin propagandists did too,

Eto was just named among 20 women combating disinformation and information threats by @NATO.antimaidan.ru/news/19296Image

Еще одним соавтором расследования о «кремлевской сетке ботов», подготовленном DFRLab, стала Этери Бузиашвилиhttps://antimaidan.ru/news/19296
@EtoBuziashvili @SGelavax.com/ikelly731/stat…x.com/ikelly731/stat…
@EtoBuziashvili @SGelavax.com/formulage/stat…x.com/formulage/stat…

@EtoBuziashvili @SGelava On Wednesday, Buziashvili published a report titled: “Russia is directly and indirectly meddling in Georgia’s upcoming election.” The next morning police showed up at her door.

Georgian Financial Police Raid Homes of Russia Disinformation Researchershttps://www.occrp.org/en/news/georgian-financial-police-raid-homes-of-russia-disinformation-researchers

The Kurahove direction:

Every 🇺🇦 drone will find a russian target to destroy.
Ukrainian warriors repelled another massive russian assault in the Kurakhove direction.

📹: 46th Airmobile Brigade pic.twitter.com/aVI2NNTjAM

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 24, 2024

Kharkiv:

Russia struck Kharkiv suburbs with glide bombs, there is power outages as the result of the attack‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 24, 2024

The Kupiansk direction, Kharkiv Oblast:

The key Borova-Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi-Kupiansk route in Kharkiv region is under Russian fire control, threatening logistics and escalating the battle in this critical area. #Kupiansk, once liberated, now faces renewed #RussianAggression as Ukrainian forces fight to hold the line. pic.twitter.com/xMFXDvfcm0

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) October 24, 2024

Pokrovsk:

This coffee shop is one of the few places where one can still get a glimpse of normal life.

Anna, who works in this shop, shares that the biggest motivation to stay here, despite the constant danger, is Ukrainian Defenders, who come there to drink coffee or eat hot dogs.

📹: DW pic.twitter.com/h9rjPVNlfj

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 23, 2024

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material

Meet Zhoryk, a robot dog serving as a sapper-engineer-recon on the frontlines. Used by @khartiiabrygada for close-up scouting, it excels where drones fall short. Technology reshaping warfare – and Zhoryk even completed a 1-mile run at the Kyiv Marathon 🦾 pic.twitter.com/iTVXliA6cC

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 24, 2024

Second, I can’t remember if I posted this one, so just in case:

@patron__dsns

🙂‍↔️🙂‍↔️🙂‍↔️ #песпатрон #джекрассел

♬ cute sound – brett

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 974: North Korean Special Forces Arrive in KurskPost + Comments (23)

War for Ukraine Day 969: The Glide Bombing Continues

by Adam L Silverman|  October 19, 20249:49 pm| 30 Comments

This post is in: China, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie, Ruby too, are doing great. Rosie’s last chemo treatment is Monday, so we’ll have more on that then. Now that the humidity has come down a lot and the heat as well, it is safer to walk her. We did a 3/4 mile walk earlier and she did very well despite not doing a lot of walking during the course of her treatments because of the effects of them on her combined with the outrageously high heat and humidity. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Now that I’ve gotten a bit of rest, I want to take a moment and spend a little more time on the North Korean soldiers issue. The Republic of Korea’s (ROK/South Korea) National Intelligence Service (NIS) has reported that the soldiers that Kim has dispatched to Russia to fight against the Ukrainians are DPRK Special Forces. These are elite soldiers. They are not conscripts doing their mandatory service. They get special privileges in exchange for their service, proper food and access to sundry goods and commodities included. They are committed to the concept of Juche. These are not troops you want to take lightly. While there’s a lot of sturm und drang right now over whether they’ve actually been deployed to Russia or that they have been, but they’re not going to be used to fight the Ukrainians, these guys are what the Russians thought and mythologized their own Special Forces to be before the Ukrainians chewed them up in February and March 2022. It is also important to remember that it gets VERY, VERY, VERY cold on the Korean peninsula during the winter, there’s a lot of mountainous terrain, and the North Korean Special Forces are trained and acclimated for winter and mountain warfare, so the Ukrainian winter is not going to phase them. If they are assigned to fight the Ukrainians things are going to get very, very, very sporty very quickly.

On the other side of the DMZ, the ROK has their own elite Special Forces. I’ve got friends and colleagues who have worked with them. Even the Special Forces (Green Berets) and Rangers tell stories of agreeing to get up early and do PT with the South Korean Special Forces and getting completely smoked by the latter. They’re in amazing condition, highly trained and skilled, and excellent Soldiers.

The larger issue here is that we are looking at an expansion of one of the kinetic/lethal theaters of operation in Putin’s world war against the US, the EU, NATO, and other US allies and partners. The other three primarily kinetic/lethal theaters are the Russian occupied parts of Georgia; Syria, where Russia attacked civilian targets in Idlib just last week; and the Sahel states. Again, Russia’s world war is primarily being waged with the elements of national power – Diplomatic, Informational, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, and Legal – other than Militaray power except in these four theaters of operation. It is a world war where the aggressor’s/Russia’s military power is not normally distributed as most of the targets are being attacked with the other elements of Russian national power. Where Russian military power is used outside of these four theaters, it is the result of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence, undertaking it’s sabotage and wetwork campaigns. Campaigns that are also being conducted by Russia’s SVR as the two agencies are in competition with each other. Putin’s world war is being resourced by Iran, North Korea, and, based on recent reporting, the PRC. Russia is killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian and North Korean weapons systems and munitions. We are now waiting to see if the North Korean Special Forces will actually be deployed against the Ukrainians. And while it is out of scope for the Ukrainian war updates, Kim has cut the roads and rail lines near the DMZ while redeploying additional forces to that area.

I do not expect President Biden and his senior natsec appointees to actually figure this out. They have been incredibly resistant to actually recognizing the geo-strategic reality of the past four years. Even if it was not apparent from their response to and handling of Putin’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine, it is visible from space in regard to their mismanagement of the Israel-Hamas, Israel-Hezbullah wars. I read the Israeli news reporting, commentary and analysis, and subject matter experts every day. All of them, every single one, are repeatedly amazed about how Biden, Blinken, Austin, Sullivan, Hochstein, McGurk, et al have been played by Bibi, Dermer, and the rest of Bibi’s people over and over and over again.

Their belief, shared by the rest of the Blob inside and outside the Beltway, that the PRC is the pacing threat and we have to pivot US natsec to meet it before 2027 is based on a significant misunderstanding of Chinese political, strategic, and military culture, Xi, and what the PRC is actually doing in its own geo-strategic activities. Their fundamental misunderstanding of China’s political and military geography has now come home to roost with the latest North Korean developments.

Quite simply, there is not a part of the world that is safer and more stable than it was four years ago. Yes, had Trump been reelected, it would all be worse, but just because Trump and his team would be worse, and that he and they have been actively working to subvert Biden and his team’s natsec efforts, doesn’t excuse the strategic malpractice, mismanagement, and failures of President Biden and his senior natsec appointees.

But just because these are the wrong men – and every single member of the senior natsec team handling these issues are men – to meet this moment, does not mean we should fail to recognize the moment for what it is: an ever expanding world war.

Here’s a summary of Russia’s drone swarm attack last night/early this morning:

Ukraine still under heavy drone attack by Russia. Drones downed over capital overnight (1) wreckage damaging building (2). A Shahed drone attacked energy infrastructure in Sumy Oblast (3), and a new type of Russian drone has been spotted over Kyiv and Cherkasy oblasts. pic.twitter.com/GX3bvTlyQT

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 19, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from early today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Keep Working to Free Our People: Military Personnel and Civilians – Address by the President

19 October 2024 – 20:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

First of all, today our gratitude goes to our team involved in the exchanges and to all Ukrainian warriors – every unit – who replenish the exchange fund for our state. I am proud of you all, and I thank you for your help in liberating our people from Russian captivity.

It is important to understand that nothing happens just like that. Strong positions are always needed for Ukraine. The capabilities of our state must always be increased. In times of war, results can only be earned. I thank everyone who makes this possible.

We have managed to bring back another 95 Ukrainians from Russian captivity. Most of them are privates and sergeants, 26 officers. Defenders of Mariupol, and generally of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kherson regions. Among them are Azov warriors. Also, Maksym Butkevych – a Ukrainian human rights activist, who went to defend Ukraine after the beginning of the full-scale war. All those who have been returned are now receiving the assistance they need.

And we keep working to free our people: military personnel and civilians. This is a very difficult process, but the more effective we are on the battlefield and in diplomacy, the sooner we will be able to bring the others back. We are investigating the fate of everyone who may be in captivity. We are trying very hard to get all of them back.

I thank the Armed Forces, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ombudsman, the Coordination Headquarters – all those who are involved and those who help. As well as our partners – those countries and leaders who strengthen our positions within this work. And always, whenever we have the opportunity, we talk to leaders during visits about the need to bring Ukrainians home. All of them. All those who are captured by Russia.

Today, I met with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of France. It was exactly the meeting we needed. I am grateful to France, President Macron, and all of French society for supporting Ukraine, our defense. We had very good, productive talks in Paris during my visit. We cooperate fruitfully for defense, and in politics, and for our greater resilience – of Ukraine and of all our Europe. I am grateful to France for its support of the Victory Plan – the points that can really bring good faith diplomacy and a just peace closer. And we will be grateful to France for collaborating with our other partners to ensure that we have this shared vision – the vision that only a fair end to the war can truly guarantee a lasting peace.

And one more thing. I want to mention Norway: we have a new support package this week – 260 million dollars. The package is aimed at supporting our energy sector. Restoring destroyed facilities and developing modern infrastructure – this is what we need right now, ahead of winter.

There is also another step – a winter aid package from the Nordic-Baltic Eight: Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark. Thank you!

This week, there are also new important decisions in the framework of sanctions against Russia and its allies – the UK’s sanctions against Russia’s shadow tanker fleet. And we need the world to put much more pressure on Russia in this area. The shadow tanker fleet helps Putin finance war and terror, and in addition, it poses a global security threat to all countries whose coasts and seas could be polluted by the operation of such tankers. I am grateful to everyone in the world who realizes this and tries to protect people and countries.

This week has also brought Ukraine a new bilateral security agreement: we signed it with Greece. In general, our architecture of security agreements is developing and growing. But these are always very specific agreements. And it is important to implement every single point. We are working on it.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost and the reason:

Can’t hold back tears of joy watching this–95 Ukrainian defenders are finally home from Russian captivity!

This exchange is very special, with heroes like Maksym Butkevych, who were unjustly sentenced to years in Russian prisons. pic.twitter.com/lPINroOX3m

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 19, 2024

The reason:

This is what Ukraine is fighting for.

📹: sashantonenko/TikTok pic.twitter.com/Q5HkLIhEbg

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 19, 2024

Butkevych is a Ukrainian human rights activist who was being held in a prison in Luhansk with 40 other POWs.

The full video is here. https://t.co/8zajyQ0Jzy

— Hromadske Radio in English (@HromRadio_eng) October 18, 2024

The first image of Maksym Butkevych after he returned to Ukraine in POW swap with Russia.

Answering question from journalist @dianabutsko, he said that he he did not know that he would be exchanged. Maksym added that 40 Ukrainian POWs were illegally held in a Luhansk prison along with him and another freed serviceman, and the release could encourage those POWs to expect their return home one day.

Maksym Butkevych says that is almost happy.

The image is from video by @Hromadske

Here’s the machine translation of the quoted tweet with the video:

Maksym Butkevich, a released human rights defender and military man, said that the news about the exchange was unexpected – he learned about it by accident on the way

Video: Diana Butsko / hromadske

What Levada says below was true in Russia then, is true in Russia now, and is exactly what Trump and his surrogates, proxies, and benefactors cosplaying as proxies (Musk) are trying to ensure is true in the US in the run up to the November election:

Back in 2005, Yuri Levada, a well known Russian sociologist, political scientist and the founder of the Levada Center, said:

“The authorities need people to feel danger from all sides… And this requires constant mobilization readiness. Scary authorities need frightened people.… pic.twitter.com/sgbQ3C0vEY

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 19, 2024

Back in 2005, Yuri Levada, a well known Russian sociologist, political scientist and the founder of the Levada Center, said:

“The authorities need people to feel danger from all sides… And this requires constant mobilization readiness. Scary authorities need frightened people. They are easier to rule.”

Canada:

Canada announced $64.8 million in military assistance to Ukraine.

The package includes small arms and ammunition, personal protective equipment and military uniforms for women, drones, training for Ukrainian soldiers, and contribution to the IT Capability Coalition.

We are… pic.twitter.com/2TKsX3oCl7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 19, 2024

Canada announced $64.8 million in military assistance to Ukraine.

The package includes small arms and ammunition, personal protective equipment and military uniforms for women, drones, training for Ukrainian soldiers, and contribution to the IT Capability Coalition.

We are grateful to our Canadian friends for their unwavering support!
Together, until victory comes!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦
@NationalDefence @BillBlair

Lithuania:

🎯 As I said a decade ago, if you think stopping Putin is expensive, wait until you see the price of letting him win. https://t.co/7NuMPHwfp0

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 19, 2024

Germany:

🇩🇪🤔 Olaf Scholz criticized Friedrich Merz’s proposal to issue an ultimatum to Putin.

“When he say: If the attacks on the infrastructure do not stop, then we’ll do this or that. This is the logic of escalation. It is not reasonable,” he said. pic.twitter.com/NYDeXVdPUC

— The Ukrainian Review (@UkrReview) October 18, 2024

The PRC:

The US Department of the Treasury is saying that China is designing, developing, and producing armed #drones in China, for Russia’s war in Ukraine. (And is sanctioning the firms)

Via @BastianBrauns who wrote about this here, in Germanhttps://t.co/svV5kdfcCX

— Ulrike Franke (@RikeFranke) October 19, 2024

Poltava:

Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter intercepts Shahed kamikaze drone during recent Russian attack on Ukraine. https://t.co/ntsOhaO7Gr https://t.co/LEeU83kknh pic.twitter.com/gTPkYs95J0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 19, 2024

Russian/Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones attacking Ukraine today. Poltava region. https://t.co/LEeU83kknh pic.twitter.com/WoYSL6nObg

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 19, 2024

Zaporizhzhia:

At least 8 people were injured in the russian aerial bomb attack on Zaporizhzhia earlier today. pic.twitter.com/fBUnWG2QXO

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 19, 2024

Kharkiv:

I’m tired to the point I’m just going to sleep the night away, and if russia decides to bomb us again, I’m going to ignore it altogether https://t.co/fOtMlFuNGw pic.twitter.com/Z2Bx0ROl6X

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 19, 2024

“If I were healthier, I would go and shoot them [Russians] with a machine gun!” – 90-year-old Mrs Olha Shevchenko survived World War II, famine, and is now braving evacuation in Kharkiv region in her beautiful red hat.

May she have many more peaceful years.

📹: TSN pic.twitter.com/kJ4ZeCy2tx

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 18, 2024

Odesa:

For 2nd consecutive night in Ukraine, Russian drones swarming in several regions; most of nation on alert. Just now from Kyiv mayor @Vitaliy_Klychko: “Air defense forces work in the capital. Stay in shelters!” Here in Odesa, a 3rd heightened air raid alert that’s still active pic.twitter.com/7ZKO7TRCOf

— Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) October 19, 2024

Bryansk, Russia:

Bryansk this night https://t.co/shdWCfKrPS pic.twitter.com/WLrmTx3ga8

— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝕯𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝕯𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱△ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇷 (@TheDeadDistrict) October 19, 2024

St. Petersburg:

Russian Telegram channels report that hundreds of buildings are without electricity in Russian St Petersburg.

Local authorities claim it was an “accident”. Locals say they accident was preceded by explosions from a drone attack. https://t.co/VFKbCoY2Sr pic.twitter.com/qtpt5q37S3

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 19, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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