Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

If you are in line to indict donald trump, stay in line.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Please don’t feed the bears.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Democrats have delivered the Square Deal, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, and now… the Big Joe Biden Deal.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

We still have time to mess this up!

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

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War for Ukraine Day 895: For Want of a Nail!!!!!!!

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing well after her treatment yesterday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, tonight’s update is going to be terse, grim, and if you don’t want your mellow harshed from today’s domestic to the US news, you may want to pass on by.

As I start drafting tonight’s post – 8:50 PM EDT/3:50 AM local in Ukraine – Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts in the east and the central/north-central oblasts of Ukraine are under air raid alert with a strike reported in Khmelnitskyi Oblast.

Shortly after I published last night’s update, which was right after the air raid alert in Kharkiv went back up, the Russian’s launched an Iskander barrage at Kharkiv City:

If you’re wondering why this keeps happening, why Ukraine can’t stop it from happening, part of the reason is going to hurt. One part, obviously, is because Putin and the Russian are undertaking a genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine. If Putin can take it Ukraine and Russianize it into the Ruskiy Mir, great. If not, he’ll destroy it, rebuild, and then repopulate it with real ethnic Russians from the Russian metropoles. The other part, however, is that President Biden has appointed the worst, most risk averse senior national security team possible, which has prevented Ukraine from actually using the weapons they’ve been provided from prosecuting legitimate military targets in Russia. Targets, that had they been targeted when Ukraine had the opportunity, would make it much, much, much harder for Russia to carry out its genocidal attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Forbes has the details: (emphasis mine)

For months, Ukrainian officials have been begging their foreign allies for permission to use the best donated weaponry—in particular, powerful ballistic missiles—to hit Russian warplanes that have been parking out in the open at airfields inside Russia within quick flying time of Ukrainian cities.

For months, those allies have demurred, citing the risk of escalation as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 29th month.

Clearly growing impatient, Ukrainian forces have stepped up their attacks on the most vulnerable Russian airfields—strictly deploying Ukrainian-made munitions. On Saturday, Ukrainian drones targeted Morozovsk air base in southern Russia 200 miles from the front line in eastern Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, the drone raid destroyed a Russian air force Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber, damaged two additional Su-34s and burned down an ammunition warehouse.

The directorate published satellite imagery of the base depicting what it described as “extensive areas of scorched earth” resulting from the ammo cooking off in the aftermath of the attack.

Since dropping its first crude glide bombs on Ukraine last year, the Russian air force has really embraced the satellite-guided munitions. Thanks to their pop-out wings, the hastily-built “KAB” glide bombs possess just enough range—25 miles or more, depending on the model—to allow Su-34 fighter-bombers to hit Ukrainian troops and civilians from beyond the range of the best Ukrainian air defenses.

Every day, the Russians drop as many as 100 KABs, some weighing more than three tons. “Unfortunately, in urban environments, their large and frequent use is highly effective,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight reported.

“Even though they are often imprecise, the sheer payload is enough to demolish or severely damage buildings, even if the KAB doesn’t hit the target directly,” Frontelligence Insight continued. “When buildings collapse, underground basements trap people inside, making rescue operations impossible, especially when the Russians conduct double and triple-tap attacks.”

As urban demolition weapons, the KABs have been a deciding factor in practically every recent Russian victory all along the 700-mile front line. “In the past, like in the battle for Bakhmut [last year], it sometimes took days for Russian artillery to damage buildings enough to force defenders to retreat,” Frontelligence Insight explained. “Now, entire buildings can collapse in seconds, rendering them useless for defensive purposes.”

It’s a top priority of the government in Kyiv to blunt the glide-bombing campaign by destroying the bombers, the bombs—or both.

There was a rare opportunity to deliver a major blow against the KAB infrastructure earlier this summer, when the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment parked dozens of Su-34s—out of roughly 100 in service—in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine.

Voronezh Malshevo is a reasonably well-defended base, so the Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire their best American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets at the base. The ATACMs are almost impossible to intercept.

But the administration of U.S. Pres. Joe Biden said no. “Our policy has not changed,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told reporters last month. As before, Ukraine would only be allowed to fire ATACMS at targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

The Russians observed the heated diplomacy regarding ATACMS—and made a rare proactive decision to pull the Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo and other border airfields.

“Between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces relocated a lion’s [share] of valuable military assets away from the border area with Ukraine,” Frontelligence Insight noted. The departure of Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo was among “the most notable movements.”

Today many of the Su-34s are at bases hundreds of miles from the border. They’re not invulnerable to Ukrainian drones—the farthest-flying models range more than 1,000 miles.

But they are safe from most Ukrainian drones, as well as from the ATACMS, the most powerful of which range just 190 miles. If the White House ever grants permission for ATACMS raids on Russian bases, it might be too late. The most valuable targets may be too far away.

Obviously, a handful of Su-34s—as well as some stocks of KAB bombs—remain at border airfields such as Morozovsk: Ukraine just hit three of the planes plus their ammo.

But to end the glide-bombing campaign, Ukraine needs to destroy scores of Su-34s—not one or several. And smarter Russian deployments are making that harder to achieve.

For want of a nail!!!

I want to make another point here. The Biden administration has gone all in on an initiative to reduce and mitigate civilian harm. Secretary Austin issued a memo, which was followed by the creation of an action plan and then a DOD instruction. There is a heavy emphasis on protecting civilians. On working with allies and partners to do so. They even set up a Civilian Protection Center of Excellence as directed in the action plan. You know what the Biden administration is not doing? Not doing anything to help protect Ukrainian civilians. It is actively preventing Ukraine from protecting its own civilians. The hypocrisy, strategic malpractice, and risk aversion is overwhelming. We’re not talking about letting Ukraine attack Red Square or the Kremlin or the Winter Palace or even Putin’s mansion in Sochi. We’re talking about legitimate military targets that are targeting and killing Ukrainian civilians every single day! These absolutely unjustifiable decisions aren’t making anyone safer. Not the Ukrainians, not our NATO and EU allies and partners, and not Americans.

For want of a fucking nail!!!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 781: A Brief(ish) Sunday Night Update

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I chose not to do an update on Israel and Iran because there’s not much to say. The US assembled a coalition with the British, French, Jordanians, and Saudis to either take down Iranian drones and missiles that were overflying their airspaces (the Jordanians and Saudis) or to just shoot them down en route regardless of whose air space they were in (the US, Britain, and France). There was only one Israeli casualty – a 7 year old Bedouin girl was injured and is being treated in an Israel hospital – and minimal damage to the bases in the Golan and the Negev. President Biden apparently got Bibi to not immediately retaliate, thereby lowering the temperature. At the same time he laid it on thick telling Bibi that this was a huge victory for Israel, demonstrated how Israel can defend itself, and that Bibi should take the win. The reality is that had the US and the coalition the Biden administration had not quickly put together interceded, we have no idea whether Israel’s air defense and missile defense would have been effective enough. Because of the intervention of the US led coalition, we don’t really know how effective the David’s Arrow and David’s sling missile defense systems are.

Ukraine condemns Iran’s attack on Israel using “Shahed” drones and missiles. We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same “Shahed” drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes.

Every effort must be made to prevent a further escalation in the Middle East. Iran’s actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia’s actions threaten a larger conflict, and the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world.

The sound of “Shahed” drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world, demonstrating that only our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent the spread of terror worldwide.

The world cannot wait for discussions to go on. Words do not stop drones and do not intercept missiles. Only tangible assistance does. The assistance we are anticipating. We must strengthen security and resolutely counter all those who want to make terror a new normal.

It is critical that the United States Congress make the necessary decisions to strengthen America’s allies at this critical time.

 

We do know that modern fighter jets are a necessary component of anti-drone and anti-missile defense. While they already knew this, the Ukrainians have again taken note of this reality. And that at the end of the day, despite all the rhetoric, they are on their own. No one is going to launch fighters to intercept inbound drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. And because the Biden administration dithered, hemmed, hawed, and let Putin have a say in their deliberations, the Ukrainians are still month’s away from getting F-16s. Israel does something strategically stupid and it gets all the help it needs. Ukraine fights for its life and gets fuck all.

As of right now, 7:09 PM EDT, the only air raid alerts are the ones over Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea.

While the US was leading a coalition to defend Israel, the Russians once again bombarded Kharkiv:

Dnipro was also targeted again today. Unfortunately I can’t embed the tweet with video from Iulia Mendel because it is one of the ones that won’t embed because Musk has manipulated the code to target certain types of posts about Ukraine.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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The Israel-Hamas War in Gaza: No One Wins but the Spoilers

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There was a request the other night for a post on the war in Gaza. I indicated I’d try to get one done this weekend, so here we are.

There are two reasons I’ve not been doing updates on this war like I’ve done on the war for Ukraine. The first is simply time. I just don’t have the time to do two war updates a day. The second is I really don’t have a lot more to say. Since I entered grad school in 1992 I’ve written a couple of thousand pages on Israeli and Palestinian extremism, its effect on the security in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, its effect on the Levant, the greater Middle East, the European Command and now Central Command areas of responsibility, and US policy and strategy. Had you told 20 year old me sitting in Bruce Maddy Weitzman’s senior seminar on Middle Eastern Politics that I would, twenty-three years later, be working on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process assigned to a 3 star commander as his senior advisor, I’d have laughed at you and told you you were crazy. If you told me I’d still be writing about the conflict, even if it is just for you all here, I’d have said that was depressing.

So with that enthusiastic intro out of the way, here’s what’s going on: THE ONLY PEOPLE WINNING, THE ONLY PEOPLE BENEFITING FROM THIS WAR ARE THE SPOILERS. THE EXTREMISTS IN HAMAS AND THE ULTRA-NATIONALIST/ULTRA-RELIGIOUS ISRAELI PARTIES AND MOVEMENTS, THEIR LEADERS LIKE SINWAR, BIBI, HANIYEH, BEN-GVIR, SMOTRICH, ETC!!!! IRAN, THE PRC, AND RUSSIA!!!! AND THE ANTISEMITES, ISLAMOPHOBES, NEO-NAZIS, AND WHITE SUPREMACISTS IN THE US AND EUROPE!!!! That’s the bottom line. The Palestinians and the Israelis are not getting anything positive out of this war. They’re not getting more security or more prosperity. They’re getting nothing other than killed, wounded, and further impoverished. For the Palestinians in Gaza this means disproportionate death, injury, displacement, and being forced into further food and economic insecurity. In Israel it means emphasizing the garrison state nature of Israel combined with constant fear from Hamas and Hezbullah rocket attacks, the majority of the population of Israel’s south and north being internally displaced because of them, families mourning their 1,200 dead, constantly freaked over their relatives still held hostage, worried about their relatives called up to fight, all while the Israeli economy strains under the cost of the war. For the Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as for the Armenian-Israeli community in the Armenian Quarter, it means trying to simply keep your land from being forcibly stolen by a combination of extremist settlers, IDF personnel aiding and abetting the extremist settlers, and the police who are now controlled by Ben-Gvir a convicted terrorist without getting arrested, beaten, and/or killed.

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We Knew What They Were, But There’s Knowing and There’s KNOWING

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Apologies for so many twitter links in this post.

This article (The Guardian) covers some of the same information, though not nearly as clearly, and it doesn’t connect the dots like this twitter thread does.  An except from the middle of the article:

On 28 September 2015, Twitter received a complaint from a Saudi user that their accounts had been compromised. But, the lawsuit alleges, the company did not act to bar one of the Saudis who was later accused – Ali Hamad Alzabarah – from having access to confidential user data, even though he had accessed the user’s account previously.

Saudi Arabian authorities, the lawsuit alleges, would formally follow up with Twitter once it received confidential user data from its agents working inside the company, by filing so-called EDRs – or emergency disclosure requests – in order to obtain documentation that confirmed a user’s identity, which it would then use in court. Often those EDRs were approved on the same day.

In May 2015, when two Twitter users tweeted about the kingdom in a way that al-Asaker found objectionable, Albabarah accessed the users’ data within hours. EDRs about the users were then sent, and automatically approved by Twitter, the lawsuit alleges.

Between July and December 2015, Twitter granted the kingdom information requests “significantly more often” than most other countries at that time, including Canada, the UK, Australia and Spain, the lawsuit alleges.

On 5 November 2015, just days before Twitter was confronted by the FBI about its concerns about a Saudi infiltration of the company, it promoted Alzabarah – now a fugitive living in Saudi. In response, Alzabarah sent his Saudi government contact, al-Asaker, a note, conveying his “unimaginable happiness” for the promotion. The note, the lawsuit claims, is evidence that Alzabarah believed al-Asaker had “arranged” or “been influential” in connection to the promotion.

Someone on twitter requested a twitter unroll, so I imagine that will be coming soon,, and I will link to that when it’s available.

Threadreader rollup:

Disgusting.  Despicable. There aren’t enough awful words to describe how I feel.

This image, of course, was the first thing I thought of after reading about this.

We Knew What They Were, But There's Knowing and There's KNOWING

 

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Monday Morning Open Thread: Kleptocracy, or Kakistocracy?

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Not my jam, especially at $35 a pop, but here’s the website.

Speaking of big money…

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The War for Ukraine Update 4: Putin Escalates

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In last night’s update I wrote:

Here’s where things are going to get dicey. As the economic responses move from sanctioning specific business and individuals to removing most of Russia’s banking system from SWIFT and going after the wealth – in dollars, pounds, euros, etc; real estate and land; yachts; jets; professional sports franchises; etc –  of Putin, his key aides and agents, and the rest of the oligarchs enabling him, as well as going after the mistresses, girlfriends, and children of Putin and his cronies, pressure is going to build. Specifically the pressure by the oligarchs and other sycophants and cronies to protect themselves. Additionally, the increase in the flow of weapons to rearm Ukraine to allow it to withstand the Russian reinvasion is also going to increase pressure on and around Putin.

The war is not going well for the Russians. This was not the speed run to Kyiv to capture and kill as much of the Ukrainian national government and as much of the government of the oblasts as possible and replace them with easily controlled trusted agents. Every day that Ukraine holds out increases the pressure. And that pressure is going to get relieved in two ways. The first is that Putin will up his operational tempo. What he threw at the Ukrainians overnight was much more than he’d ordered be done over the previous two nights. And as day 4 turns into night 5 of the war what he orders will be more than what he threw at the Ukrainians today. CNN reported earlier that its reporting team had eyes on a thermobaric missile launcher just south of Belgorod, Russia near Ukraine. If things continue to go badly, I expect we’ll unfortunately see this type of weapon system deployed. The second way the pressure is going to get relieved is that Putin will begin to go after the US and our EU and NATO allies in ways that he has not yet done so. He will lash out, most likely through increased cyber attacks first, in an attempt to inflict pain to stop, or at least slow down, the resupply of the Ukrainian military.

Putin has seriously miscalculated with this reinvasion. He misunderstood the resistance his forces would face. For whatever reason he seriously misunderstood the competency of the military he’s spent over a decade rebuilding and modernizing. And he misunderstood how the US and its EU and NATO allies, as well as the vast majority of the world, would respond.

Well that didn’t take long!

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Russian Mobilization, Ukraine, and What the Hell Is Going On?!?!?!

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“Probe with bayonets. If You encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.” 

— Vladimir Lenin

Sorry for the delay, been a busy week, but I wanted to take a few moments and do the promised post on what is going on with Russia and Ukraine.

Reports have been trickling in from a variety of sources that Russia has been repositioning significant military assets near its western border with Ukraine. This has followed an increase over the past ten days or so of Russian Information and Psychological Operations directed at Ukraine, the US, NATO, and the EU.

The official US position is that this is just repositioning for a military exercise:

This includes reports that Russia has mobilized all of its military assets everywhere.

And, of course, the Information Warfare and Psychological Operations are in full swing:

What I specifically think is going on with Russia vis a vis Ukraine is something similar to what we saw back in late Winter/early Spring of 2014 before Putin moved on eastern Ukraine and Crimea once the Olympics were over. Basic maskirovka principles of diversion. Russian media has been going 24/7 on and on about how Ukraine has mobilized additional assets and is preparing to take back eastern Ukraine and, perhaps, even Crimea by force. And that the US is going to move military assets into Ukraine, which is just hyperbolic fantasy for domestic Russian consumption.

The reporting also includes an explicit threat presented as real concern that this could become a tactical nuclear war, which ignores the fact that Ukraine doesn’t have nukes. But it is effective in the Information domain of reinforcing actual Russian military doctrine that, if the Russian military is unable to win a conventional fight, then Russia will use its nuclear weapons tactically to reverse conditions in the battle space. Putting out this type of information is itself part of Russia’s Information Operations/PSYOP doctrine for setting the battle space ahead of military operations. The purpose of this is to freeze the US and NATO from taking action because neither are willing to risk a nuclear strike by Russia or escalation to a nuclear exchange. I’m not really sure this information warfare is effective, but it is in line with Russia’s military doctrine of using Information warfare and PSYOP to set the battle space ahead of actual military operation at the same time that they are physically preparing to set the theater of operations.

At the same time, all of this also provides a convenient way for Putin to change the topic from the fact that Navalny appears to have contracted either COVID or TB from the other inmates on his cell block, that they’re torturing him using sleep deprivation, and that he’s now in the infirmary as a result of a combination of whatever respiratory infection/disease he’s contracted and the effects of his hunger strike.

Russia’s build up and increased Information warfare and Psychological Operations directed at Ukraine, the US, NATO, and the EU is also not happening in a vacuum. The Russians and the PRC are in fact quietly collaborating. We’ve been watching it in real time in Libya where the Russian backed Libyan general is being supported by not only Wagner mercenaries, but also Erik Prince’s Frontier Services Group, which is wholly owned by the PRC. The attempted coup in Jordan?* We already know one of Prince’s Israeli associates was involved. And Prince is the bridging node here between the PRC/Xi and MBS of Saudi and MBZ of the Emirates, who appear to have been behind the coup. So I have no doubt that there is, at least, informal coordination by Putin and Xi, as well as regional players like Muhammed bin Salman,  Muhammed bin Zayed, and Bibi because all of them suddenly are facing a very different strategic reality with the Biden administration than they did with Trump who didn’t actually give a damn about any of this stuff beyond being able to have these authoritarians say nice things about him while they took advantage of him.

One final point: this is basically the equivalent, by Putin and Xi at the geo-strategic level and Muhammed bin Salman and Muhammed bin Zayed and Bibi at the regional strategic level, of the bad guys increasing operations during a Relief in Place/Transfer of Authority (RIP/TOA) just as the outgoing units are almost out of the area of operations (AOR) and the incoming units are just fully taking control as the left seat/right seat ride comes to an end.

And in Putin’s case it conforms to Lenin’s statement: “Probe with bayonets. If You encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”

Right now Putin, as well as XI, Bibi, Muhammed bin Salman, Muhammed bin Zayed, and everyone else is probing to see what Biden and his team will do. In Putin’s case it is entirely possible that he is high on his own misinformation and agitprop supply that Biden is some sort of addled, neurologically ill mental case that is being taken advantage of by Ron Klain, Kamala Harris, and Tony Blinken who are really running the US government. Regardless, all of these bad actors, even the ones like Saudi, the UAE, and Israel that are supposedly partners and clients, are probing. If they find steel, they’ll withdraw. If they find mush, they’ll proceed.

That said, I’d like to see us call Putin’s bluff. The US Army has recently stood back up V Corps. It should be temporarily relocated to Kyiv and it should be plussed up with the 1st Armored Division and the rapid response brigade combat team – the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team – should be brought from FT Bliss and Vicenza respectively to keep them company. Operational Detachments Alpha (ODAs) from the 10th Special Forces Group, Civil Affairs Teams Alpha (CAT-As), and theater strategic Psychological Operations Teams should be added as enablers from Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR). Let the conventional elements train with our Ukrainian, NATO, and EU partners. Have the 10th Group bubbas do some Foreign Internal Defense training, the CAT-As do some military support to government work, and the PSYOPers conduct some counter-Psychological Operations with their Ukrainian, NATO, and EU partners.

Open thread!

* It’s been a busy week. I’m nowhere near caught up, but hope to be by tomorrow noon. So I’ll hopefully get to the Jordan post I promised sometime this weekend.

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