This reads like the beginning of a Ludlum novel, and unfortunately, I think this is the sort of thing we can get used to hearing about over the course of our lifetimes:
Several European countries reported sharp drops Monday in the level of natural gas they are receiving from Russia as a dispute over pricing between the state-controlled Gazprom company and Ukraine threatened to damage Russia’s reputation with its European customers as much as it hurts Ukraine. Russian natural gas destined for Western Europe transits a pipeline in Ukraine, and a reduction in the amount of gas entering the system from Russia, which was designed to only affect Ukraine, has led to reductions of up to 40 percent in supplies reaching Austria, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia — all members of the European Union (EU) — as well as Romania and Croatia.
Officials in Germany, which is about to embark on a multi-billion dollar pipeline project with Gazprom, which will increase the country’s already heavy dependence on Russian natural gas, cautioned the Kremlin that it risked being seen as an unreliable energy partner. And a government minister reminded Russia that as chairman of the Group of Eight leading industrialized countries, which it assumed Monday, it should act responsibly. “Thirty percent of our gas comes from Russia at the moment. That should be increased,” Germany’s Economy Minister Michael Glos told German radio. “But it can only be increased if we know that deliveries from the East are dependable. One should naturally act responsibly.”
As demand soars for all energy types, I expect we will be seeing a great deal of this for the foreseeable future.
capelza
I agree that we will see more of this, I’m just trying to see the “hysteria” part…
The Other Steve
Clearly if it was a Ludlum novel, it would involve an international conspiracy between Gazprom and Chinese business interests intent on controlling the Japanese economy! :-)
god, I love Ludlum.
Just for the record, and to get an understanding of just how similar Russians and Americans are. [Or maybe how similar Russians and Republicans are. :-)] I mentioned I saw this news to my girlfriend yesterday and her response was “Good, the Ukrainians are thieves.”
Apparently the issue is that some Ukrainians have tapped the pipeline at various points and siphoned off fuel without paying. This has been going on for several years now, and Russia has been trying to get the Ukraine govt to do something about it.
The fact that this move had unanticipated consequences effecting others besides Ukraine is where the Russians are much like Republicans. :-)
Pb
John Cole,
Ah, memories–I remember when we used to attribute this sort of thing to OPEC.
The Other Steve,
Oddly, that’s just what Saddam said about Kuwait, and we all know what happened there.
So, who’s up for another World War? Europe vs. Russia, until the US comes in to save the day, woo hoo etc.
demimondian
IMHO, this is payback for the Orange Revolution. Had the Ukrainians elected the guy the Russians wanted, then there’d be no problem with the current natural gas prices.
CaseyL
Well, the gas is flowing again. But if Putin wants to be a big player on the world stage, he could turn this latest miscalculation into an opportunity.
Energy is going to be THE issue for the next two generations (until GCC sharply reduces the number of humans on the planet). Countries that have energy resources in their terrorities have a stark choice: be strong enough to resist invasion, or be invaded. Russia has loads of energy resources, and probably doesn’t want to be forced to give them away on someone else’s terms.
If Putin wants to think really big, and really long-term, he might want to consider patnering with Europe to build another pipeline – one that doesn’t go through a country that hates his and Russia’s guts – or one he can reabsorb into Russia.
Looking at a map, the countries between Russia and Europe are the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine. Well, Ukraine’s out: Putin’s plot to put a pro-Kremlin govenment in charge was counterproductive, to put it mildly. I think the Baltics are out, too. Does anyone know what Russia’s relations with Belarus are, or whether Belarus is weak enough to be tempted/coerced into becoming part of Russia again?
Or Putin could look north, to Scandinavia. Russia borders Finland directly and, IIRC, has good relations with Finland. A pipeline through there doesn’t get the gas directly to continental Europe, but does send it through arguably friendlier terrority.
Then there’s the possibility of building a pipeline underground – which would also be better protected from attack, now that I think of it. I wonder if it would be at all feasible to build an underground pipeline under the Baltic Sea, direct from that tiny bit of Russia west of St. Petersburg to either Poland or Germany.
That would be a huge project, and a huge coup, if Russia could partner with Europe to get it done.
CaseyL
After another look at the map, the possibility of a pipeline under the Black Sea also beckons – though that one would have to go to/through Turkey or one of a bunch of former SSRs.
Gold Star for Robot Boy
But Bush looked into Putin’s soul and liked what he saw! So, everything’s gonna be OK, OK?
CaseyL
Of course Bush looked at Putin and liked what he saw. Putin is what he aspires to be.
The Other Steve
That certainly plays a big part.
Not much chance there, as I’m not sure relations with Poland or Finland are much better than Ukraine.
Russia has to make it worth whatever countries while. As much as some eastern european countries may hate Russia, they do like money.
ATS
Gazprom gave lots of money to Abramoff’s World Family Council, as I recall. Ties to the Oligrachs who skipped to Israel. Also connection to the Ecstasy trade in Key West. Prostitution through the old Ostblok too. Nice folks.
Time to apply for your “Samuel Sheinbein Scholarship” at the Choctaw sniper school in the territories. I hear Speilberg has an option on the story.
Where is Gerald Bull when we need him?
Ozymandias
Casey, last I knew, the Belarus gov’t was very pro-Russia. Possibly the most so of the former Soviet states.
CaseyL
Thanks, Ozy. Then run it through Belarus :)