I haven’t seen a ton of cross-tabs from recent presidential polls where the numbers are broken down by age group. But the PPP Iowa poll shows Obama “lead(s) with young voters at 64-29”. In Colorado he has a “58-38 lead among voters under 45.’
In 2008, Obama won the 18-29 age group by 34 points.
In the data at the Roper center, going back to 1976, no candidate has ever won any group by as much as 34 points ever. And in a typical year, the variation among different age groups is small. (The other cases of one candidate dominating an age group are mostly from 1984, when Reagan won by a landslide, dominating every age group, albeit some more than others, whereas in 2008, Obama lost the 65+ vote.)
The age shift started in 2004 with Kerry winning 18-24 by a lot and losing most others. It has no precedent prior to that.
I know PEOPLE GET MORE CONSERVATIVE AS THEY GET OLDER. Not so fast:
In general, however, this points toward the idea that partisan identification — while not exactly being “hard-wired” — can be quite persistent as the voter moves through her lifecourse. Voters who came of age during the eight years of the Bush Presidency are roughly eight points more Democratic than the rest of the country; that advantage could be worth an extra point or two to Democrats throughout the next half-century.
One of the big mysteries to me about the current Republican party is why they haven’t tried to change their message to appeal to younger voters. Gay-bashing, immigrant-bashing, and slut-shaming have almost no appeal to younger voters, no matter what Cardinal Dolan and Kris Kobach tell you.
I don’t know exactly what caused the huge shift among younger voters. Some of it is the aforementioned poor Republican messaging, but there must be more to it. My guess is that the Republican machine depends on control of institutions, especially media and religious institutions, and that young voters have mostly deserted these institutions.
The loose ladies and strapping young bucks are too busy sexting each other and writing things on Facebook to absorb the proper dose of propaganda.