Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

Dear elected officials: Trump is temporary, dishonor is forever.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

How stupid are these people?

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

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Open Thread: I’m *Still* A Warren Democrat

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While she’s in it, I’m with her. (And if she endorses someone else, I’ll — almost certainly — take her advice.)

And as I said yesterday… what with circumstances (including COVID-19, yup), we need a backup candidate who’s got a campaign structure ready to go. Not to ill-wish anybody who isn’t a Republican, but in the clips I was seeing last night, the Only True Progressive Candidate did not look like a well man, and Murphy the Trickster God is taking entirely too much interest in our little contest this year.

Speaking of inspiration:

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Iran Is Far From A Nuclear Weapon

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I’ve been writing this now since 2012 or earlier, but reporters and editors don’t care to learn about the uranium supply line and the processes that form it into a nuclear weapon. Or they like sensationalized clicks better. So here it is again.

The IAEA defines what it calls a “significant quantity” of enriched uranium as 25 kg of U-235 in enriched uranium. That’s approximately enough for a nuclear weapon, although it varies with the weapon design. The IAEA needs an arbitrary number like that for reporting on its inspections. It’s a quick rule of thumb. (If you click that link, you’ll see others writing about it in 2012.)

Because the United States has withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, Iran nuclear agreement), Iran has been ramping up its production of low-enriched uranium. That’s a few percent of U-235. You need 90% or more to make a nuclear weapon.

Yesterday, the IAEA’s latest report on Iran was released, with numbers, and oh boy now the reporters and editors can show us they can divide!

The low-enriched uranium that Iran has produced contains more than 25 kg of U-235. It would have to be further enriched to produce bomb-grade uranium. Then it would have to be formed into the proper shapes and explosives and electronics added to make it into a bomb. One bomb. One bomb would have a slight deterrent effect, but it’s not good for much else. In fact, announcing it for that deterrent effect would simultaneously paint a target on Iran.

I’ve seen two headlines this morning that ignore all that in favor of whipping up war fever. It doesn’t help that there are think tanks pushing this line, and that the Trumpies have been working with them hand in glove.

So here they are:

Business Insider: Iran has stockpiled enough uranium to produce a nuclear weapon in the latest sign Trump’s strategy has ‘failed miserably’. The last part is right, anyway.

New York Times: Iran Crosses a Key Threshold: It Again Has Sufficient Fuel for a Bomb. At least their subhead is better: So far, the evidence suggests that Iran’s recent actions are calculated to pressure the Trump administration and Europe rather than rushing for a bomb.

There’s no doubt Iran could build a bomb if they wanted to. The fact that they signed on to the JCPOA and that they haven’t built one is good evidence that they don’t want to. Let’s not convince them otherwise.

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Super Tuesday and party organization thoughts

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Good morning.

For the folks whose candidates had a good night last night, stretch out your hip flexors before you do your happy dance this morning.

For the folks whose candidates did not have a good night, you have my sympathy and empathy.

Jackals, let’s try not to be assholes to each other in comments.

The two delegate leaders are the former vice president and a member of the party’s Senate leadership.

That is the most interesting and important thing. The Democratic Party has been able to successfully resist leveraged buy-out bids by loosely linked party actors. Bloomberg dropped half a billion dollars to win American Samoa and pick up a few delegates here and there. Steyer dropped over a quarter billion dollars for even less. Significant factions of the Democratic Party were able to solve the coordination problem of unifying behind one candidate and deliver a meaningful supportive push to that candidate at a decisive moment. These are all signs of a relatively healthy political party. It can resist take-over bids, while also coordinating resources from diverse stakeholders.

Last night showed that at least one political party in America is able to fulfill its institutional role.

UPDATE 1 Primary electorates are fundamentally different than general election electorates. Keep that in mind as you attempt to create scenarios that are favorable to your preferred candidates.

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Epidemics and externalities

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Epidemics are full of externalities. An externality is a benefit or loss that is not received by the entity paying the price for a change in status. Positive externalities which distribute net benefits to the non-payer will be systemically under produced while negative externalities which shifts costs to entities that don’t collect revenue from the primary process will be overproduced.

Most of our medical finance system is premised on the idea that there are few externalities. If I get my knee repaired, I, or my insurer, bears the full price as I, presumably, will bear the full benefit of a knee that would not make funny noises as I try to dance.

Infectious diseases have some benefits and costs that can be interalized. An individual who goes to the hospital and whose treatment enables survival is alive. However, the decision to be screened and if positive with low acuity symptoms, to self-isolate/quarantine has small internalizable benefits, large costs borne by the patient as their life and the lives of their family and close associates may be thrown up in the air. However, quarantine and other social isolation measures are intended to produce large social externalities. An infected individual who is in contact with people who are either already infected OR are taking appropriate precautions is unlikely to infect other people. Those people who would have been infected if the currently quarantined individual went about their daily life but aren’t infected because of an effective quarantine, benefit without paying for the quarantine.

Breaking potential infection chains is a key to stopping potentially epidemic infectious diseases. Breaking those chains can occur through vaccinations or quarantine or burnout. Vaccinations and quarantines rely on the production of significant positive externalities. If we want lots of positive externalities, we, as a society, should be willing to pay for them through our collective resources of the federal government. Paying for medical care is a way to buy both internalizable gains for the individual patient and publicly consumable externalities.

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Wednesday Morning Open Thread: (Brief) Respite

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On The Road – ?BillinGlendaleCA – Ascot Hills Sunsets

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Good morning everyone,

A little midweek joy!

After seeing the moonrise from the Baldwin Hills, this morning we’ll see the sunset from Ascot Hills. Ascot Hills is east(technically northeast-east) of downtown LA near Cal State LA. If you drew a line(I did on Google Maps) between the Baldwin Hills and Mt. San Antonio where we saw the moonrise, it would cross the Ascot Hills. The Ascot Hills is two ridges with a valley between them. The east ridge is higher than the western ridge and there’s a reservoir at the northern end of the valley. A racetrack was at the southern end of the ridge to the west that was known for it’s high number of fatal crashes. The park is home to a fair amount of wildlife; I saw a rabbit, two coyotes and an owl.

On a personal note…if you like my work, consider becoming one of my patrons on Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/BillinGlendaleCA. (/shameless plug)

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On The Road - ?BillinGlendaleCA - Ascot Hills Sunsets 6
Ascot Hills Park, Los Angeles, CAJanuary 9, 2020

A gate on the western edge of Ascot Hills Park frames the downtown LA skyline as the sun sets between a gap in the skyscrapers.