Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

“woke” is the new caravan.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

We still have time to mess this up!

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

You are here: Home / Balloon Juice / Ian Has Been Downgraded to Category 3, Florida Check-in

Ian Has Been Downgraded to Category 3, Florida Check-in

by | 120 Comments

This post is in: ,

I just read that Ian has made landfall, and also that it has just been downgraded to Category 3.  Still dangerous, but compared to Cat 5, hat has to be great news.

Can the Florida peeps check in and let us know how it’s going?  And anyone else with family and friends in Florida?

My godmother lives in The Villages.  I am not looking at weather maps because weather maps and I do not get along very well.

Stay safe, everyone.

Reader Interactions

120Comments

  1. 1.

    raven

    I found out more about my friends house. He’s about a mile from the river in Cape Coral with about a mile of mangrove between them and the river. It’s not great and, since he’s in Brevard, he probably won’t know what’s what for a while.

  3. 3.

    Baud

    On Reddit, people have posted video of Tampa Bay and other places drained of water that has been sucked up by Ian.

  4. 4.

    Andrew

    Starting to get TS winds here in Gainesville.  No word yet on how Sarasota fared.  Lost touch with friends there.

  5. 5.

    Starfish

    Over 1.5 million people lost power. The only ones who will be able to post are those with generators IF their internet also did not need power to operate, which it probably did. The cellphone networks are likely overloaded with in-coming calls from every person who knows anyone in Florida or who knew people who used to live in Florida.

    Some people with a satellite phone or satellite internet might be able to get through.

    Right now, we should be cheering on the power company to get everyone up and running as soon as possible. It will likely be days for some people.

    When I search news for “Florida power restoration,” it is a bunch of stories about crews of linemen from various parts of the country going down to help restore power after Ian. Yay. Go linemen.

  7. 7.

    raven

    @WaterGirl: Good, the destruction on the mangroves has made the impact of hurricanes much worse.There is interest in mangrove restoration for several reasons. Mangroves support sustainable coastal and marine ecosystems. They protect nearby areas from tsunamis and extreme weather events. Mangrove forests are also effective at carbon sequestration and storage and mitigate climate change.[2][9][10] As the effects of climate change become more severe, mangrove ecosystems are expected to help local ecosystems adapt and be more resilient to changes like extreme weather and sea level rise. The success of mangrove restoration may depend heavily on engagement with local stakeholders, and on careful assessment to ensure that growing conditions will be suitable for the species chosen

  14. 14.

    Dan B

    @WaterGirl: The winds on the east side of the storm are pushing towards the northeast.  On the west side they push to the southwest.  Tampa Bay was on the west side so the water was pulled away from the bay.  Or pushed away, if you prefer.

    As the eye passes the wind direction reverses.

  18. 18.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: it comes from a combination of factors: the low pressure at the center of the storm raising the sea level like sucking water up through a straw, the local ocean-floor topography (similar to what affects tsunami heights), and relentless, high-speed unidirectional wind pushing the water in one direction, notably in this case on the BACK end of a hurricane passing to the north, where the wind is from the west and hence drives the water inland.  It’s also affected by tide (Tampa got lucky-ish this time because the hurricane hit at low tide).

  19. 19.

    AliceBlue

    My brother and sister-in-law live in Lake Mary, which is in the Orlando area.  He texted me this morning to say that they had plenty of food and water and the generator was ready to go.  Got another text about an hour ago saying that it was getting very windy.

  20. 20.

    leeleeFL

    I am also Brevard County.  Our critical time is middle of the night into tomorrow.  There has been flooding in some areas because we have had too much rain already, and the ground is saturated.  I am OK so far; my Daughter is floating, but they put sandbags all over so hopefully it will be bearable,  I am looking into French Drains and such for when this is over.  It looks like they live in a very flood susceptible  area, nowhere near the ocean!  Anybody know anything about that kind of thing?

  21. 21.

    Salty Sam

    @WaterGirl: I don’t know enough to know if a mile of mangrove is a good thing or a bad thing.

    When we were in Culebra PR during the first pandemic years, the mangrove swamps were where we would move our boats into if a major hurricane threatened.  Mangroves have a thick tangle of roots and branches at water level, which is an amazing buffer against storm surge- definitely a good thing.

    The destruction of mangrove swamps for real estate development is exacerbating storm related destruction around the world.

    ETA, I see others beat me to this…gotta be quick around here.

  22. 22.

    kalakal

    @WaterGirl: With Tampa Bay the storm hit at low tide and because of where the storm centre was (to the south) and the way it was moving the winds were blowing down the bay from the shore, pushing the water out, it’s called a negative surge. The water is going to come back, the big question is how fast.

  23. 23.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: Yes.  From Teh Intertubes:

    • Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
    • Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones.
    • Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

    Ian came ashore as a cat-4, and some radar measurements showed eyewall winds on the back side as high as 170 mph, equivalent to an EF-2 tornado and lasting much much longer.

  25. 25.

    WaterGirl

    @Salty Sam:

    The destruction of mangrove swamps for real estate development

    That’s something that should never have happened.  The corollary to I’ve got mine, fuck you is “this isn’t going to hurt me now, so fuck everybody”.

  27. 27.

    WaterGirl

    @kalakal: That’s super helpful.  It’s starting make sense to me.

    I suck at time zones, geography, and maps.  So I don’t recall where you are in Florida, but I know you’re in an area that’s at risk.  is it still quiet, or kind of quiet where you are?

  28. 28.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @Starfish: it may take weeks. After the latest Hurricane in Louisiana it took a long time for some areas to get power. I was gathering new about places to get tarps, food, hot meals and clothes/ diapers/formula. For a while for my niece as she could not get a cell signal and could only run her phone for minutes at a time

    i texted her the info a couple times a day…

  32. 32.

    leeleeFL

    @WaterGirl:  I had a guy tell me he couldn’t understand why I cared so much about sea-level rise and climate change as we’d both be dead before it happens  First off, BS.  It’s here now.  Second off, I told him I didn’t want my GrandChildren living in a floating bubble city or something equally post-apocalyptic.  Asshole!

  33. 33.

    kalakal

    All good here in Pinellas so far. Not too much rain, fair amount of small debris. branches, palm fronds but so far nothing terrible. Am surprised we still have power

  35. 35.

    WaterGirl

    @leeleeFL: I don’t understand these people.  Were they raised by wolves?  Never heard of caring for other people?  That it’s not winning if you have to cheat.  Living in a world together.

    The mind boggles.

  36. 36.

    Starfish

    @EmbraceYourInnerCrone: Yeah, after Hurricane Katrina, it took three days for me to get someone to confirm that my mother was alive.

    There was a doctor from her hometown who had been out of town on vacation who was updating a blog somewhere, and I asked him if he had seen my mother (who was also a doctor in the same hospital and frequently would shelter there during storms.) He let me know she was alive and that he had seen her in the hospital.

    The hospital has a satellite phone, and we got to speak with her for a few minutes a few days after that.

  40. 40.

    WaterGirl

    @zeecube: There haven’t been a lot of threads today, and I think most of them have been mine, so I have read all the comments.  I haven’t seen a thing since the earlier “it’s not clear whether she is being super-dramatic or if she’s really in trouble” information.

  41. 41.

    Joy in FL

    I’m in west Pasco about 30 miles northwest of Tampa, a few miles from the Gulf. So far it’s not as bad as expected. Either the really nasty rain bands have missed my area or the strong rain field is not as large as I thought it would be. It’s raining all day, but not 5-7 inches that were expected. There are mid-range tropical storm winds, again a huge relief to me.
    So far I have power.
    Probably going to sleep on the couch in the living room where I can be attentive to what develops during the night.
    I am so sad for the folks to the south of me. Such devastation to deal with. I feel very lucky.

  43. 43.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: winds are the worst part of a hurricane.  The rain is heavy, and storm surge can be bad if you’re right on the coast, but the winds cause the most damage, and they’re also the scariest.  And they go on for hours.  Insurance companies consider hurricanes primarily windstorms.

  45. 45.

    Trapped Lurker

    Has anyone heard anything about Cape Coral? My daughter’s in-laws are old & sick (lung cancer, among other things), and they absolutely refused to evacuate. Said they have a generator, water, food. They are in a 1-story house 11ft above sea level. My son-in-law is very worried. Can’t get through and is now filling out forms online with their address so the recovery folks will know  to look for them once it’s possible to do so. I’ve seen reports of structural damage in Cape Coral, but no information on what the storm surge has been. Generator won’t be much use if it’s under water.

  46. 46.

    kalakal

    @WaterGirl: Yes, just the two of us and 3 cats. Pinellas is a little peninsula, Gulf of Mexico to the West, Tampa Bay to the East. A couple of days ago we were going to be landfall and everyone was freaked out as most of Pinellas & Hillsborough (Tampa where Betty used to live ) is about 6 inches above sea level. The evacuation zones are crazy , over a million people. There’s 3 million people live here and helped by the geography a cat 5 would make the place look like it had been carpet bombed

  52. 52.

    Dan B

    @WaterGirl: The water drains away slowly after the surge reaches its peak.  Since the mangroves slow the surge it doesn’t reach as high as if there were no mangroves.  If the mangroves slow the water by half an hour in a ten foot surge that could cut the peak down to six feet which reduces the damage dramatically.  The other aspect of large surges is there are waves on top of the surge.  Ten feet of water will produce much higher waves than six feet, much more than double, closer to three or four times higher.  There is video of the huge surge during Haiyan. The waves were beating at the buildings.

  59. 59.

    eclare

    @Trapped Lurker:   From what I saw on TWC, Cape Coral prob had a pretty high surge.  None of TWC teams were stationed there, though.  Hopefully someone can check once day breaks tomorrow.

  62. 62.

    GrannyMC

    Okay here in Pasco County. We’re just on the NW edge of the final track and got some wind and rain off the bands, but we’ve had t-storms that were worse.

  63. 63.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    Justice A-aron Judge just blasted number 61​
     

    American League Record

    61 – Roger Maris (1961)
    61 – Aaron Judge (2022)
    60 – Georgie “Babe” Ruth (1927)

  64. 64.

    kalakal

    @WaterGirl: Yep still at home. The peninsula has a few high points and at 80 ft we’re in the Florida equivalent of the Andes.* I wasn’t worried about the storm surge, I was worried about wind damage, trees falling. Something tells me when I retire ( shes already retired) we’ll move away, I’m not sure either of us have the nerve for this too many times.

    *The county does an interactive map showing sea level rise projections, what if it rose 10ft, 20ft etc. We end up as one of 2 islands when you get to 60ft

  65. 65.

    Steeplejack

    @WaterGirl:

    Not exactly. The hurricane is rotating counterclockwise as it moves, so, since Tampa Bay ended up on the northern side of it, the hurricane’s high winds pushed water west and out of Tampa Bay. Once the hurricane moves on or abates enough, the water will come back.

    ETA: Storm surge. The hurricane doesn’t need to get water from “somewhere else.” It just pushes any water in its path ahead of it. Rainfall adds more water, of course.

  66. 66.

    Curt

    My daughter lives in Cape Coral and checked in a half hour ago. She sheltered with boyfriends parents on 52nd in a house that is 16 feet above sea level and apparently highest in neighborhood. She reports they didn’t flood but everyone around them did. Given the worst case surge projection we took that as great news. Helped by fact storm eye passed well before high tide.

  69. 69.

    Another Scott

    Indeed, stay safe everyone.  Fingers crossed.

    Meanwhile, …

    Flight Company DeSantis Hired For Martha’s Vineyard Stunt May Have Violated Law Banning Political Donations https://t.co/g5iUax4IPA

    — Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) September 28, 2022

    [ womp, womp ]

    (Points to a Forbes piece with a headline about a contribution to a super PAC while the firm was a federal contractor.)

    (via nycsouthpaw)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  70. 70.

    Martin

    @WaterGirl: No, they don’t. Once they sell the property, it’s someone else’s problem.

    At some point the actuaries will show up to this shitshow and pull the plug. It’s not that a lot of these places can’t be habitated and Florida’s newer building codes are actually pretty good, but it’s going to come with the complete destruction of everything built before that. And that presumes that they aren’t building in places that the sea will permanently reclaim, which Florida has a lot of.

    I’d forbid construction anywhere that can’t survive at least 3m of sea level rise. 

  71. 71.

    SpaceUnit

    I’m just popping in quick to say that I hope all you BJ folks in the Sunshine State have a very safe and uneventful night.  Your friends and family as well.  I’ll be sending you good thoughts and whatever positive juju I can muster from here.

    It’s probably not the right time to point out that you’re all crazy for living there.

  72. 72.

    Dan B

    @kalakal: There are maps of Seattle as a series of islands.  Our house is at 250′ so at maximum sea level rise we’d be waterfront.  The same rise eliminates 95% of Florida and puts the ocean at Memphis, or nearly so.

  73. 73.

    cope

    Here north of Orlando we’re having on and off strong winds, heavy to light rain for now but worse expected tonight and  tomorrow. We still have power but I doubt it will stay on for us much longer. One instance where I would love to be wrong.

  77. 77.

    Scout211

    It’s now Cat 2.  It is 85 miles SW of Orlando right now and should hit Orlando overnight.  It still has a projected path two blocks to the east of my sister’s house. They are expecting flooding in Orlando but she is hopeful they will be spared because their area has not flooded before. They still have power right now.

  83. 83.

    kalakal

    @WaterGirl: Yep, when we got married my wife was here, I was still in England ( we met in NYC). Stepdaughter was here and first grandkid on the way. So the choice was easy,  here. Of course a few years later the kids moved to NJ 😄. I think if we stay I want a much tougher house.

  84. 84.

    Mustang Bobby

    Here in suburban Miami we had gusty wind and lots of rain last night (Tuesday) but by this morning it had dissipated to occasional showers and some gusts.  I went shopping at a local Publix in Pinecrest (15 miles south of downtown Miami) and it was both deserted and fully stocked.  We were under various watches — tornado and flash flood — overnight, but we never got beyond a tropical storm warning.  I’ve got lots of friends in the Naples-to-Tampa area and inland from Tampa through Orlando, and I’ve been trying to keep up with them.

  87. 87.

    eclare

    Friend texted that NBC reports people are trapped and on rooftops in Cape Coral.  Choppers are needed, but winds must be below 35 mph.

  90. 90.

    kalakal

    I’d like to give a big thank you to Watergirl for doing these check in threads. I’ve certainly found it helpful and calming. I can’t speak for anyone else but I find hurricanes, with their days long build up very, very stressful. It’s an extended feeling of impending doom

  95. 95.

    Suzanne

    @WaterGirl: Thank you. I am sad today. In recent months, she had really been slowing down and struggling, so I am taking comfort in the fact that she is no longer in any pain. I miss her big clumsy silly doofus presence.

    We also lost our Scout (cat) some months back, and it is just too empty without them.

  100. 100.

    Suzanne

    @WaterGirl: SuzMom has her Chihuahua mix, Chica. Spawn the Elder is also talking about bringing Zellie (tabby cat) from AZ to PA, which would be returning to our home. Zellie stayed with Spawn in AZ (with Spawn’s dad, the ex-Mr. Suzanne) when we moved to PGH and we miss her very much.

    Plus Spawn the Youngest is potty training, by which I mean that I am bribing her with M&Ms and use of the iPad to sit her ass on the potty.

    But yeah. It’s too empty.

  101. 101.

    WaterGirl

    @Suzanne: You do have a lot going on.  And it still feels empty without them.

    My sister had a pool in her backyard, so potty training was a breeze. They didn’t get to go in the pool until they were trained.  I think once she started, it took 2 days.

  104. 104.

    Doc Sardonic

    Ok so far we are going to be on the western edge, so it’s a crap shoot. Power and internet still on, but for how much longer who knows.

  105. 105.

    Mingobat (f/k/a Karen in GA)

    @zeecube: Thanks so much for asking. She was hanging in as of mid-afternoon, but they had no power and the water was getting closer to the house she was staying in (located on a canal not far from the river). Haven’t heard anything since. I’m hoping it’s just because cell service is down.

  108. 108.

    scav

    Throwing in a late-breaking contribution to yesterday’s Possible Disasters Among Us thread, specifically a Waves, Wind and Pressure variant:  Seiches!  Certainly available on Lake Michigan.  No mitigating mangroves available on LSD.

  109. 109.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    @Suzanne: I feel for you, but there are lots of cats looking for good homes, especially (this time of year) young cats.  Since most cats have their kittens in the spring, by fall the shelters are desperate to push out their aging-out-of-cute-shortly-to-be ex-kittens into loving arms.

  110. 110.

    persistentillusion

    @Starfish: My daughter decided to attend UNO and matriculated there on August 19th,, 2005.  We’re from Colorado and she wanted a new experience. She got one.

    Evac’ed from UNO to Pass Christien with people she’d met 3 days prior.  Pass was where the eye of Katrina came ashore.  I got a text saying “My car just floated away, we are going up move up to the second floor of this house.  We’re not sure how we’re getting the disabled person up the stairs.”

    The cell phone towers went down.  I didn’t know if my 18 year old daughter was alive for 4 days. She was fine and didn’t see much that was traumatic. She went back, unsuccessfully, to UNO for a semester and then came back to Colorado.

    The saddest thing she said was “If the storm hadn’t happened, I would have been really happy here, but the storm happened and that story ended.”

  111. 111.

    Betsy

    @WaterGirl: Gravity, once the wind stops blowing in one direction.  And when it blows in the other direction, the water piles back up in that direction (and when it encounters a shoreline, piles up into a massive wave or series of waves that get even higher).

  113. 113.

    opiejeanne

    @Dan B: I’ve seen the maps. Our neighborhood would be an island. I think our elevation is about 400 feet, up on Hollywood Hill. People would have to get groceries by boat, and downtown Woodinville would be under quite a bit of water.

  114. 114.

    Betsy

    @bbleh: I don’t think that’s correct.  Many hurricanes cause little direct wind damage compared to their massive flood damage from rainfall.  Look at Floyd.  Also, storm surge can travel far upriver or into bays from coastal areas, where it piles up in a funnel effect making it a much higher surge.

    source: beeen through enough cat 3 and cat 4 hurricanes to know. They’re all different

  116. 116.

    Betsy

    @bbleh: insurance companies consider hurricanes “windstorms” in the sense that their policies specifically exclude flood damage from hurricanes, because insurance companies know *how much more* destructive the flood damage is than }
    the wind damage.

    This exclusion is what makes the policies “wind” policies, and is why you have to get a flood policy separately.

    It’s not evidence that wind is more damaging than surge/flood  in hurricanes – in fact, quite the opposite.

  119. 119.

    Gvg

    In Gainesville, it’s just stormy rainy long two days. Still have power.  Outdoor have been worse. Glad it’s not. I have strep throat so I am really glad not to deal with power loss. My garage door opener broke and I might actually get it repaired today. Depends on the weather, which when the business made the appointment I assumed meant delay, but now I don’t know. A spring broke. Nextdoor recommended this company.

    Yesterday I had the windows open while waiting as it was cooler outside than with air conditioners. That is really odd. Hurricanes don’t usually cool things off that much.

  120. 120.

    Paul in KY

    @Origuy: Saw him play at Riotfest a couple of weeks ago. He looked like he was having a great time. Played all his hits. RIP, Pride of Compton.

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