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Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Dear elected officials: Trump is temporary, dishonor is forever.

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Find someone who loves you the way trump and maga love traitors.

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Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

A fool as well as an oath-breaker.

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Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

The National Guard is not Batman.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 2016: What Air Defense Doing?

War for Ukraine Day 2016: What Air Defense Doing?

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This is NOT what air defense (is supposed to be) doing!

Since I’m sure someone will ask, we’re fine here sheltering in place. We’ve had steady light to moderate rain and light to moderate wind with occasional gusts no greater than 41 mph. If everything continues as forecast, we’ll be out of the wind field no later than midnight. We’re basically on the outer edge of it given the storm track.

Alas, the folks between Naples south to Ft. Myers and inland to Punta Gorda were not so lucky. They had a 16 to 18 foot storm surge. I’m sure a lot of you have seen the videos, but basically you’re dealing with a hurricane created and driven tsunami. We’re already beginning to see reporting on the local news stations mildly chastising the folks in southwest Florida for not evacuating. Especially those calling 911 for help. Here’s the thing: the evacuation orders for Port Charlotte, Naples, Ft. Myers, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, etc didn’t go up till yesterday morning when the 11 AM update went up. That 11 AM update was the first one using data after Ian cleared Cuba. Which means it was the first one with good data once the storm was in the Gulf. That 11 AM update was based on the models and forecasts that were finally starting to firm up. And the 2 PM and 5 PM updates just further solidified the track.

Those of us in the greater Tampa Bay area had and extra 24 to 36 hours to evacuate. Hillsborough County’s and Tampa’s evacuation orders for Zone A started on Monday. Same with Pinellas County. The Zone B and C orders went up at 8 AM yesterday. I’m not blaming the forecasters and hurricane scientists and modelers. They can only work with the data they have. But because the data was messy and unclear until Tuesday morning, everyone made an assumption on the early modeling from before Ian even hit Cuba. And that assumption was it was headed to Tampa Bay and the worst case scenario was finally going to happen. So Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties and the municipalities in them reacted the way we’d want, but the southwestern Florida municipalities did not because they were told they were most likely in the clear.

There’s going to be victim blaming. There’s going to be attempts to play hot potato among the politicians. I would not be surprised if NOAA gets the same treatment from Governor DeSantis that NHS did because he was all over TV telling people in Hillsborough and Pinellas to leave immediately. I don’t like the guy, but he can only work with the data he’s given, just like everyone else. But this is Floriduh! and there’s an election coming up, and someone is going to have to be blamed to cover other’s butts. I expect it’ll be the victims of Ian, insult will be added to injury. And, of course, the Federal government as that always plays well here.

Just a quick check in on the women’s revolution in Iran and then back to Ukraine’s defense!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Our key task now is to coordinate actions with partners in response to sham referenda organized by Russia and all related threats. This is not 2014. Everything is clear for everyone. And there will certainly be actions.

I’ve held a whole series of negotiations today. President of Türkiye Erdoğan, Chancellor of Germany Scholz, Prime Minister of Canada Trudeau, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Truss, Secretary-General of the UN Guterres, President of the European Council Charles Michel.

Thank you all for your clear and unequivocal support. Thank you all for understanding our position. Ukraine cannot and will not put up with any attempts by Russia to seize any part of our land.

I once again thanked President Erdoğan today for his help in freeing our people from Russian captivity. Commanders from Azovstal, who are in Türkiye, will soon be able to see their relatives. We are working on it.

Also, by the way, the implementation of the plan to help each of those recently released from captivity has already begun. They receive priority elements of assistance. First of all, it is medical support – they all need recovery after what they had to go through in captivity. This work is under the control of the Ombudsman, representatives of the Office, intelligence, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Health, and the command of the Medical Forces. And we will extend the appropriate measures, which are being worked out in detail now, to all our people whom we free from the captivity of the occupiers.

I will emphasize once again: we remember all our people and try to free each and every one of them from captivity, not a single Ukrainian has been forgotten.

We discussed today with President Erdoğan our further defense cooperation, our response to all the aggressive steps that Russia has already taken and is still preparing to take.

We discussed a wide range of issues with the Chancellor of Germany – political, financial, defense, energy. In the defense topic, I emphasized that we are waiting for an anti-missile defense system from Germany – I’m grateful for the willingness to help with air defense. Other points of defense cooperation were also discussed in detail – there are quite a lot of them, they are clear. Of course, energy issues were touched upon, including the supply of gas to Europe and sabotage at the Nord Stream gas pipeline.

We discussed with Mr. Chancellor the preparation of the new sanctions package of the European Union – together we must make it really powerful, not symbolic. As of today, there is still something to add to the eighth sanctions package.

The conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada was, as always, very specific and concerned primarily how Canada can increase support for Ukraine. Among other things, demining was discussed. Canada has both the appropriate technology and the appropriate humanitarian ambitions.

I invited Prime Minister Trudeau to lead a global effort to clear our land of Russian mines and projectiles. Due to the Russian war, Ukrainian land is one of the most contaminated by mines in the world. And while there are similar examples of large-scale mine contamination around the world, we must do what others have not done: we must set a precedent for rapid and large-scale demining, not leave this problem for decades. I thank Canada for its willingness to help us.

With Mrs. Liz Truss, we discussed the possibilities of Britain in enhancing sanctions on Russia, as well as in increasing defense aid for our country. I am grateful for the principled condemnation of the Russian farce under the guise of a referendum, for the full support and willingness to move with us towards the return of freedom to all our people – in all parts of Ukraine, without any exceptions.

The conversation with the Secretary-General of the UN also concerned sham referenda and Russia’s apparent preparation of the ground for an attempt to annex our territory. These brutal violations of the UN Charter must be punished.

We discussed the implementation of our grain export initiative with Mr. Guterres. We agreed that the initiative should not only be preserved, not only protected from any attempts to disrupt it, but also expanded. Ukraine is ready to significantly increase the export of our agricultural products to the countries that need them and the corresponding interaction with the UN for humanitarian purposes and assistance to such countries as Somalia, Ethiopia, etc.

I have just finished a call with Charles Michel. As always, it was a conversation between real friends. Thank you for your full support in the issue of sham referenda and for your willingness to extend aid to Ukraine. Of course, we also discussed the preparation of new sanctions.

Tomorrow I will continue intensive communication with the leaders.

And today I want to once again thank the United States of America and personally President Biden for the new package of defense support for our country in the amount of more than 1 billion dollars. This is really important.

If someone in Russia thinks they can “get away” with everything they are doing in the occupied territory, if someone in Russia hopes the world will abandon its own values, frightened by another Russian announcement of annexation, they in Russia are wrong. Each subsequent escalating step by the occupier only confirms the fact that the world must act even tougher.

In the evening, I signed another decree awarding our defenders. State awards were awarded to: 71 warriors of the National Guard, 21 employees of the State Emergency Service, 52 border guards. 320 combatants were awarded for their brave and effective actions during the liberation of the districts of the Kharkiv region from the occupation.

As for the situation at the front, everything is clear to us. Therefore, I repeat again… For those who understand only Russian.

If you want to live, run. If you want to live, surrender. If you want to live, fight on your streets for your freedom. Everything was taken from you anyway. Or maybe any of you have oil rigs? Palaces? Vineyards? Maybe yachts? Or some bank? What are you fighting for? The only thing you have is loans, something to eat in the evening and now there’s mobilization. Fight for what’s yours! Stay away from our land, our soul and our culture.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here is their updated map for today:

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s analysis of the successful Ukrainian air defense in Odesa:

That’s what Air Defense is supposed to be doing!

The Ukrainians are still pushing for Lyman!

We have more on the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines:

The BBC has details:

The EU has said leaks in two major gas pipelines from Russia to Europe were caused by sabotage – but stopped short of directly accusing Russia.

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said deliberate disruption would meet the “strongest possible response”.

The EU has previously accused Russia of using gas supplies as a weapon against the West over its support for Ukraine.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed accusations of sabotage as “predictable, stupid and absurd”.

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he thought the leaks would “not have a significant impact on Europe’s energy resilience”. Neither pipeline is transporting gas at the moment, although they both contain gas.

Mr Blinken did not directly accuse Russia – but said it would be in “no-one’s interest” if they were caused deliberately.

The Danish Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said the leaks were likely to last for at least a week, until the gas escaping from the pipes runs out. An investigation has been launched.

Mike Fulwood, a senior research fellow at the independent Oxford Institute for Energy Studies told the BBC sabotage was, indeed, the most likely cause of the leaks.

“To rupture an offshore pipeline is a rare occurrence, so three in 18 hours would be a big coincidence,” he said.

If the sabotage was indeed committed by Russia, this was a “bizarre” move, he said, as it had already shut supplies off.

He estimated that repairs could take between three and six months, as the damaged sections would need to be replaced. Similar damage to a different pipeline in the past took nine months.

Seismologists reported underwater blasts before the leaks emerged. Denmark’s Defence Command has released footage of the leaks which shows bubbles – the largest is 1km (0.6 miles) in diameter – at the surface of the Baltic Sea.

“There is no doubt that these were explosions,” said Bjorn Lund of Sweden’s National Seismology Centre.

Here’s the details of the latest US aid package for Ukraine:

HIMARS!

Obligatory:

https://twitter.com/Dr_F_Hunter/status/1549787546586173441

It is important to remember that the Russians are still holding a very large number of the Azovstal defenders. Including almost all of the female doctors and medics:

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

80Comments

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    Very glad you’re doing okay, Adam.

    I wonder if whatever garbage healthcare russian soldiers have covers burns like this:

    If you want to live, run. If you want to live, surrender. If you want to live, fight on your streets for your freedom. Everything was taken from you anyway. Or maybe any of you have oil rigs? Palaces? Vineyards? Maybe yachts? Or some bank? What are you fighting for? The only thing you have is loans, something to eat in the evening and now there’s mobilization.

    I’m extremely concerned about what those female captives are being subjected to. I hope the Ukrainian government will be able to get them released as soon as possible.

    Thank you for sharing the updates about Iran, as well–the bravery on display is truly impressive.

    Also, that HIMARS song is indeed a certified banger. Sending me back to my club days.

    Thank you as always, Adam. 5783 isn’t off to the greatest start for you, but here’s hoping it improves quickly.

  8. 8.

    oldster

    Thanks, Adam, and stay dry in the days to come.

    The people of Ukraine and the people of Iran fill me with hope and anxiety. May they all triumph against evil.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: Actually we’ve been incredibly lucky. First with where the hurricane went and then with its track across the state. The former meant that we didn’t have to evacuate and then not have a house to return to. The latter meant that we’ve spent all day on the outermost edge of the storms reach. We’ve had worse all day thunderstorms and monsoons this summer. As far as I’m concerned, that’s a good start!

  15. 15.

    zhena gogolia

    The NYT has published audio of a bunch of Russian phone calls from early on in the invasion. I feel as if I heard most of it here at the time. Am I crazy? They’re presenting it as “breaking news.” Maybe because they have verified its authenticity.

  17. 17.

    Chetan Murthy

    @zhena gogolia: I forget who it was (a relatively prominent UA twitterer) pointed out that:

    • while FTFNYT’s reporting argues that RU soldiers didn’t expect to be thrust into a real war, nor even to be going into UA,
    • in fact, we know that many soldiers carried their dress uniforms with them (not something you take on “exercises”/”training”, one would think) and some were making restaurant reservations in Kyiv.

    In short, at least some of these soldiers knew full well what was up, and were licking their chops.

  18. 18.

    Alison Rose 💙🌻💛

    @zhena gogolia: Apparently, he filed, and it sounds very “someone’s hiding an affair” or something to me.

    MTG’s estranged husband, Perry Greene, tells TMZ … “Marjorie has been my best friend for the last 29 years and she has been an amazing mom! Our family is our most important thing we have done.”Perry adds … “As we go on different paths we will continue to focus on our 3 incredible kids and their future endeavors and our friendship.”

    I mean….

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    @zhena gogolia: I posted a lot of those, often released by Ukrainian military intelligence. They’re new for the NY Times because The NY Times has not previously reported them.

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    @zhena gogolia: this twitterer wasn’t arguing that the same soldiers who were telling their wives/GFs that Putin was fucked in the head, were the ones who carried the dress uniforms.  But OTOH, lots of soldiers did, so it’s not as if the fact that this was an invasion was hidden.

  23. 23.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: She’s had two affairs that were reported on during her 2020 campaign, which didn’t make a dent in her electability despite her oft stated claims of being a devout Christian wife and mother. So those are the two we know of.

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    @zhena gogolia: As far as The NY Times is concerned, unless they report it, it has never been reported. With the possible exception of WaPo’s and CNN’s reporting on the matter.

  27. 27.

    Anonymous At Work

    18 more HIMARS plus 16 already in use brings the total to 34, more than double current numbers.  And those 16 are wrecking havoc as is.  At what point are we going to see diminishing returns and will the US purposefully loan enough just to figure out when you can have too much of a good thing?

  28. 28.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @zhena gogolia:

    lol. That would too much concentrated crazy

    @Chetan Murthy:

    • in fact, we know that many soldiers carried their dress uniforms with them (not something you take on “exercises”/”training”, one would think) and some were making restaurant reservations in Kyiv.

    In short, at least some of these soldiers knew full well what was up, and were licking their chops.

    Ick. Probably thought they would be greeted as liberators, the morons, with a Ukrainian woman in each arm

  37. 37.

    Gin & Tonic

    Hey, remember when Darya Dugina was killed by a car bomb? That sure went down the memory hole, didn’t it?

  41. 41.

    Will

    My guess is we’ve lost some of the 16 HIMARs by now. I don’t know how real it is, but the media seems to be reporting the Pentagon is super concerned about the Iranian loitering munitions Russia bought. They’ve bought a thousand so far. Wondering if this is a response.

  42. 42.

    Halteclere

    I assume the bomb fragments are retrievable from the ocean floor, so the details of the bomb construction can be determined. Could Russia have gotten ahold of some Chinese underwater drones, and this was a test? Blowing up the pipes dont seem to have much strategic purpose otherwise.

  43. 43.

    Carlo Graziani

    With the US passing out HIMARS units like party favors, I guess that means they must have fixed the supply-chain issues with the M-31 munitions, although I have not seen any reference to that in news.  Previously the story was that the existing 16 HIMARS in Ukraine, firing a couple of 6-packs of missiles per day for a couple of months could pretty much exhaust the planned 5 years production schedule of those things. Has anyone seen any updates on procurement?

  44. 44.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Halteclere: I thought this thread made some good points about it.

  45. 45.

    dmsilev

    @Anonymous At Work: Ammunition for the things is probably going to be the ultimate limiting factor. Both in terms of what we have stockpiled and in the rate that it can be shipped from stockpiles to Ukraine to the front lines.

  47. 47.

    Will

    CNBC says the 18 HIMARs is not drawdown authority and not immediately available. Instead we are paying for 18 to be built as well as the ammunition needed for them.

  51. 51.

    dp

    Victim blaming, huh.  Welcome to 2005 Louisiana, especially NO.  Y’all don’t deserve it any more than we did, so best wishes and stay safe.

  52. 52.

    Jay

    @Will:

    According to both the Pentagon and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, total HIMARS losses in Ukraine, are 0.

    According to the Ukrainian MOD, 4 dummy HIMARS have been destroyed.

    As long as the HIMARS use their range and shoot and scoot, Russia has no way to counter them, other than on paper.

  53. 53.

    Geoduck

    @zhena gogolia: I’ve read recently that the Russian army is made up of a patchwork of units under the command of various factions. So I can totally believe that some troops were making restaurant reservations and others couldn’t find Ukraine on a map.

  54. 54.

    Will

    @Jay: Yes, I know what the MOD says but they wouldn’t tell us if the Russians had knocked any out to begin with. You don’t confirm information like that for the enemy.

    The Russians do have some drones. Most of their units seem to be complete shit, but they do have a couple that aren’t complete shit and capable of taking out a HIMARs. I’ve not seen enough info on the Iranian loitering munitions to know if they are worth anything against the HIMARs as the reporting seems to be infrastructure related.

    The HIMARs aren’t invulnerable and we shouldn’t assume so. We got to be clear eyed that a lot of the kit we send is going to get destroyed, which is why I wish we were sending more. Had hoped the new 18 would be for immediate delivery but the US reporting I’ve read indicates we are having them built.

  56. 56.

    Aziz, light!

    The 18 additional HIMARS won’t be delivered until six months to 2 years from now (and more likely the latter), according to defense authorities. So regrettably they won’t be any help during the counteroffensive.

  57. 57.

    Anoniminous

    Informed Sources News Agency saying Lyman has been cut off and the area is now a Kesselschlacht.

    Russian mobilized on the 23rd have been captured on the front lines.  What this means is of the 300,000 (or so) civilians now being thrown into the front lines my bet is roughly 100,000 will become combat effective by next spring.  The rest?  Dead, wounded, diseased, captured, PTSD incapable aka ‘There-but-Not-There,’ deserted, frozen, or missing.  OJT uses up a lot of bodies.

  63. 63.

    Anoniminous

    @Will:
    To take out shoot-and-scoot HIMARS you have to have Real Time Information and Real Time Operational Flexibility.  Russian Command-and-Control is strictly Top/Down.  Company and Field commanders, i.e., the actual drone operators, do what they are told to do and when they are told to do it Or Else.  By the time the Russian OODA loop has closed the HIMARS are long gone.​
     

    ETA: Since we know the Ukrainians have constructed dummy HIMARS it would be a cool thing to do to have an operational battery set-up, fire, and boogie leaving the dummy HIMARS in that position for the drones to see and “kill.”

  64. 64.

    Jay

    @Will:

    If the RUA had a confirmed “splash” of a HIMARS, it would be all over social media, amped by the digital ratnicks, with photo’s taken from 17 different angles to confirm the RU MOD’s spokesman’s past claim in May that they have destroyed 17 HIMARS.

    A key reason why RU Drones, (and Iranian) target civillian infrastructure, buildings, etc, is because they don’t move.

    The US and TDF use small “retail” drones with advance forces to then relay targets to arty.

    According to many observers, RU arty targets are assigned from the top down with pre planned firing missions and the “plow the fields”, even if there is nothing there.

  66. 66.

    Jay

    The head of Russia's draft office in Altai says that if anyone was drafted by mistake, it's their fault. It's the logical end of an absurd blame game – officials have to find any scapegoat other than Putin for starting the war and declaring mobilizationt.co/9FxjH7drWJ— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 28, 2022

  68. 68.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Mike in NC:  

    Ten mile backups of cars leaving Russia in every direction.

    The escapees need to abandon the cars. Upon entering the line, either have a (female) partner take the car back, or just get out and abandon it … hike across the border.

  70. 70.

    way2blue

    @Halteclere: My assumption has been that the pipelines were blasted via autonomous underwater vehicle(s) (AUV).  I would also assume that Russia has their own.  Regardless the explosions must have been fairly large to have been recorded on multiple stations w/in the regional seismic network.

  72. 72.

    Jinchi

    @Jay: ‘Send in the meat.’ [Us.]

    I have to admit my first instinct, were I in that situation, would be to shoot the guy dead on the spot.

    I jumped into the first vehicle that left our positions to get food and munitions. At first, they said, “We don’t take refusers,” but I told them, “I have a gun, so you’ll take me one way or another.”

    Then again, that works too.

  75. 75.

    Geminid

    @Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: A Europe-based news site Iran News Wire has been a good source of news about protests in Iran. If you do Twitter, their account @IranNewsWire puts up video of demonstrations around the country that get past resrictions the regime has placed on social media. There are many other good sources too.

    Iranian President Raisi made an address on state media last night. I have not yet looked to see any practical effects. Tehran time is 71/2 hours ahead of Eastern Daylinght time, so it is early afternoon there.

  78. 78.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Reuters published an article I found yesterday in the Jerusalem Post under the title, “Who was Mahsa Amini, whose death sparked Iran protests?”

    The article gives details about the circumstances of Mahsa Amini’s arrest in Tehran, and death two days later. One I had not known was that when she stepped off the train with her family, Ms. Amini was immediately arrested by Tehran’s “morality police” because her pants were too tight.

  79. 79.

    evodevo

    @Major Major Major Major: Yep…all the fundies I worked with totally ignored the “No divorce at any time” parts of the scripture they supposedly were so fixed on lol – and this wasn’t just Paul…Jesus actually said it in two different places, so can’t just ignore.  Cognitive dissonance looms large in the talibangelical mental repertoire…

  80. 80.

    Chetan Murthy

    The stages of grief … I think he might be up to bargaining:

    The mood of Russia’s top propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov in this clip can be summed up as “Hello darkness, my old friend.” He demands some victories and complains that people are running away from Russia. He also sighs. A lot. pic.twitter.com/0NNetH3hLi
    — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 29, 2022

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