Utah is a deep red state, but Utahns never seemed super-enthusiastic about the tacky and degenerate orange oaf or his henchmen, including their U.S. Senator, Mike Lee, and Mike Lee seems a tad nervous:
Yes, Mike Lee did, in fact, write an op-ed in the Salt Lake Tribune referring to himself in the third person, in an attempt to make it look like the Trib endorsed him.
Because of course he did. pic.twitter.com/VsR9n0EDnA— soonergrunt 🇺🇸 A Capybara Appreciation Account (@soonergrunt) October 17, 2022
Shame on the Salt Lake Tribune for falling for that bullshit ploy. They’ve updated the author of the piece since Soonergrunt got that screen cap: the self-fluffing is currently attributed to “Campaign for Mike Lee.”
That’s no improvement. Like Soonergrunt said, the piece is intended to bamboozle readers into thinking the Trib endorsed Lee. I thought that at first glance — and we know many don’t look past the headline.
Maybe Lee is right to be concerned. Utah Dems didn’t endorse anyone to give conservative-but-not-MAGA independent candidate Evan McMullin a shot at unseating Lee, and the race is close according to polls.
Speaking of the Polling Fairy, if you’re worried about the Times/Siena poll that shows Republicans gaining ground in the midterms, check out this post at Steve M’s No More Mr. Nice Blog. Steve wonders if the NYT is so worried about underestimating Republican support again that they’ve overcorrected the weighting.
I have no idea what’s going to happen, but close races in what history suggests should be a red wave election in places where Republicans typically dominate make me wonder if perhaps Dem enthusiasm is underrated. We’ll know in a few weeks. Meanwhile, enjoy the spectacle of Mike Lee endorsing Mike Lee.
Open thread.
Baud
Baud! 20XX!: Endorsed by Baud! 20XX!
ETA: Correction: Baud! 20XX! has endorsed Joe Biden. We apologize for the error.
cain
He sounds pretty desperate.
ETA – aww yeah!!!
Omnes Omnibus
Bob Dole would have never let Bob Dole do that for Bob Dole.
Also, I will reiterate that I do not think that pollsters or the MSM have adequately accounted for Dobbs in their models and narratives.
p.a.
Open thread, so:
I’ve been liking (in a hate-watch kind of way) The Rings of Power, and Friday’s season-ender was wonderful as Galadriel turned down Sauron/Halbrand’s offer of politico/romantic union, setting up a season 2 plotline with The Dark Lord neglecting plans of Middle Earth dominance to troll Right Stuff looking for someone to share the top floor of Barad dûr with.
Old School
Presumably, the “Vote for Evan McMullin” op-ed is coming soon.
Betty Cracker
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m hanging my hopes on that reed too, and also that it’s impossible to prognosticate using traditional models in this deeply weird and anomalous political moment.
trollhattan
“Principled conservative.” Words that go together like soil mongoose and creative lint.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
I was going to bring that NYT thing up, as I just saw that headline on the frontpage of the NYT. Apparently, according to it, Dems have seen independents and women drop. I’m a little bit skeptical, but we’ll see.
Anywhoo, I got my 50 post cards today from my local FedEx Office store and they look awesome. I was afraid they were going to look blurry but they didn’t. I used an online website to boost the DPI to 300 from 120. They’re fairly large post cards, so I should have plenty of room to write. I’m a little stumped on what to write though, given the front of the post card does a good job talking about saving SS, democracy, codifying Roe, etc
For you post card writers, what broad strokes could you give me?
I figure I could go with, “This election is a very pivotal one that could determine whether this country remains a democracy and fulfills the inherent promise to Promote the Public Welfare and create a more perfect union. Together, we’ve got this.”
Baud
@trollhattan:
Not a bad band name.
trollhattan
@cain: “Please clap.”
As though it were a hurdle to be reelected in Utah with (R) next to your name? If you have a Pepsi distributorship there you don’t even need to show up at the office. Same with being Republican.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I’m going to go review one of my books, referring to myself in the third person. Five stars! No one will notice it’s me, right?
Scout211
Harry Enten’s analysis on CNN.com seemed to be more of the same overcorrection. I couldn’t even read the whole thing. Lots of concepts and statements that I would characterize as “maybe this and maybe that, but possibly this or possibly that—I’m so smart! Read MEEEEEEE!” The end.
Frankensteinbeck
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Some people are saying that review of Dorothy Winsor’s book is the perfect review everyone should read.
Scout211
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Who needs a sock puppet when you can get a review from the person who read the whole book! I think you are on to something!
Mousebumples
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): general ideas –
Not sure where you’re getting addresses from, but #PostcardsToVoters gives approved and allowed messaging. (eg need to include these statements, may include these for this campaign, and may include these more generic statements)
Happy postcarding!
Jackie
Mike Lee and Evan McMullin debate tonight. That might be entertaining, between Lee’s third-person self endorsement and his begging Mitt to endorse him on Tucker’s show the other night!
Mousebumples
@Dorothy A. Winsor: just go by D. Anne Winsor (*or whatever the A stands for). And maybe Dot Winsor and DA Winsor also have important thoughts to share… 🤔
brendancalling
Maybe he should change his name to Stuart Small-Lee, since clearly he’s good enough, smart enough, and doggone it people like him (according ti his mirror).
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Frankensteinbeck: @Scout211: @Mousebumples: Thanks for your support, but my support of myself is obviously what matters.
Honestly, how does Lee not realize that people will see it’s him writing? Or, I don’t know, maybe they don’t.
BC in Illinois
The Hoarse Whisperer points out that the NYT poll is a nationwide poll of … 792 people.
Here is the NYT tweet.
Ocotillo
@Omnes Omnibus: Man I hope this is correct. I have seen a rash of horse race stories on TV media saying Dobbs has dropped in importance to voters because, doncha know there is some inflation out there.
Soon expecting Speaker McCarthy stories.
Betty Cracker
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): & @Mousebumples: Yep, I stick with the messaging P2V provides too and keep the verbiage relatively short and sweet. I see post-carders on Twitter who get all fancy by using different color pens, drawings, etc., which is awesome, but I keep mine simple for speed, mostly. I do underline candidate names and critical dates.
TaMara
@Betty Cracker: I seriously, and maybe naively, think that anywhere Dems are polling just under 50% they are going to win, because I think Dobbs decision, women and young people have not been factored in.
At least that helps me sleep at night…until the actual numbers on in.
I did NOT see KS coming, so that weighs in my hopefulness.
Dangerman
Do GOP assholes (pardon the potential redundancy) have to go to some form of uncharm school to act like POS’s?
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
Somewhere, Bob Dole senses that Bob Dole is angry that Mike Lee stole Bob Dole’s schtick.
piratedan
@Ocotillo: as always….. inflation is bad and if you’re explaining you’re losing….
never any questions about…. well, what policies would you put in place to curb inflation…. (tax cuts for the rich and privatize medicare and social security)) …
its as if the current situation manifested itself context-free… no words about a global pandemic recovery affecting everyone, no mention of climate change, no mention of when money was sent out keeping people afloat that the corresponding economic reaction was for everyone else to raise prices because there was money being spent.
and there’s no memory of which party caused the last two economic meltdowns… and we’re seeing the price of eggs and gas being given the same consideration as the real possibility of the end of Democracy as we know it.
surfk9
I have been canvassing for Josh Harder CA-09. Democratic men and women are fired up even here in my little purple town. I hosted canvassing at my house all weekend. Had lots of canvassers from the Bay Area and Sacramento and they were encouraged by the amount of enthusiasm that’s out there.
Gravenstone
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Just strategically misspell your name (or maybe the main character’s), no one will be the wiser.
The Lodger
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You’re sending a postcard. It’s OK to send a more personal-sounding message than that.
Betty Cracker
Another thing I like about doing postcards to voters: it makes me feel as if I have a stake in the outcomes of more obscure races in other states, aside from my obvious preference for Dems to win across the board, everywhere. Thanks to my postcard work, I am:
Stacey Abrams, Senator Warnock and Beto O’Rourke were also featured in my mailings, but I already knew about and was pulling for them.
Patricia Kayden
Disappointing if true. I’m hoping for a Kansas surprise.
CaseyL
@BC in Illinois: There are statistical sampling models pollsters are supposed to use that allow them to take what seems like a ludicrously small number of responses (e.g., “less than 1000”) and extrapolate them to an entire population.
I mean, they do need to use sampling models because polling an entire state, much less country, is impossible.
However, I don’t know what models they’re using, how those models are created, or even if pollsters are using models from 20 years ago. (Not to mention the difficulties of polling when most people have Caller ID and don’t respond to numbers they don’t recognize.)
Dangerman
@BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️: Is that from SNL? My brain is stuck on a scene that plays out something like Bob Dole saying “Bob Dole is officially disturbed at Bob Dole being disturbed” (an ear worm for the brain).
Calouste
@BC in Illinois: 792 is a decent number for a poll like that (IIRC 450 is the minimum to get a 4% margin of error). Of course that means that the poll doesn’t say anything more than “it’s basically tied”.
Would be nice if the US was like the UK, where polls are showing Labour with a 30+% lead over the shitshow formerly known as the Conservative party.
oatler
@Baud:
“Satisfiers of Alpha 20XX”
Betty Cracker
Christ, this asshole is still at it:
It’s perfectly legit to worry that the war will spiral into some even more calamitous atrocity than what is already underway — JFC, I’m pretty sure most of us are concerned about that! But his persistently framing it in Putin’s terms screams bad faith. I do not trust a company controlled by that man with any national security-critical capability. Not for Ukraine, and not for the U.S. either.
Old Dan and Little Ann
@Dangerman: https://twitter.com/Reflog_18/status/1467540144270061579?t=dG5tVAz28-j3Pk-N7N0OHA&s=19
Edmund Dantes
@Omnes Omnibus: as some proof, following tweets are presented
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1582091960298639360?s=46&t=rnXV6fFjbJZjk2i5kapvpA
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1582092571056041986?s=46&t=rnXV6fFjbJZjk2i5kapvpA
gender gap in NY-19 was 7 percent. It was 4.5 in 2020 general election
cain
@BC in Illinois: The sample size was curated to produce a horse race and/or claim “Dems in Disarray” or just to give GOP a leg up. They are scum.
cain
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, Crimea the place that Russia invaded and took over for no cause back in 2014. He’s playing finders keepers.
MisterForkbeard
@Betty Cracker: This is such a stupid argument. Not even counting the whole “russia invaded Crimea just 8 years ago so now they get to keep it forever”, Russia literally says all of Ukraine is a core part of Russia.
So I guess that means we just have to shrug and give Putin what he wants? Musk is such a fucking goon.
Steeplejack
@Old School:
Evan McMullin got one yesterday, and it is much more straightforward.
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
@Dangerman: Yes. The late Norm MacDonald used to riff on Bob all the time.
ETA: tried to find specific clip, failed.
Sloegin
Guess the Trib isn’t worried about staying in business if they’re just giving away political advertising for free.
Ken
This reminds me of one of my favorite XKCDs.
(But as you may have noticed, everything reminds me of XKCD.)
Steeplejack
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Just use the name “Johnothy A. Barron.” 👌
Scout211
People, Mike Lee was duped, I tell you. Duped! I just read it in the Washington Examiner so it must be true! It’s all a big mistake! He’s not really a narcissistic asshole. Not really!
Ha Ha Ha Ha!
Anoniminous
Pew Research’s take on the fact 2020 polling was for the birds.
What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Why don’t we trade Elon Musk’s wealth to Putin in exchange for no nukes?
TaMara
I found this tweet thread helpful for my mental health:
Nelle
@MisterForkbeard: In 2018, I was told that building belonging to my great-grandfather (mill? Factory?) Had been seized by the Russian Navy. If true, I hope the Ukrainians blow it to pieces.
Betty Cracker
@TaMara: That is helpful. Truth is, none of us has a damn clue what’s going to happen. All we can do is work for the best outcome. So, off to write more postcards!
Steeplejack
@TaMara:
Seconded. Just came here to post that. A ray of sunshine.
eclare
@TaMara: Thank you!
dm
@Betty Cracker: The problem with all these polls showing Republicans gaining is that if the Democrats win it will be “because the Demonrats ST0LLLL3 1T!!!111!!!!”
(Of course, they were going to complain of that anywhere a Republican lost, anyway.)
TaMara
@Betty Cracker: @Steeplejack: @eclare: I thought this was an interesting thought (part of that thread)
Omnes Omnibus
@dm: We control what we do. What they do is on them.
Jackie
I’m trying to ignore the polls until after the elections. The 2016 and 2020 polls prove the pollsters don’t know jack shit. What little I’ve heard about the NY poll suggests republicans are trying to suppress the vote by discouraging Dems from voting by skewing the results. Don’t follow the polls. JUST VOTE.
Eta I’m waiting for our resident Gloomy Gus Eeyore to pollute the evening threads with his “the sky is falling” oooh noes.
Miss Bianca
@Ken: Oh, that’s awesome!
dm
@Calouste: 792 is an okay number for an overall poll, but if they’re drawing conclusions about women and Latino voters, they probably have around 400 women and maybe 100 Latino voters in their pool
ETA: oops, confused this with another poll.
Eyeroller
About polling: there are statisticians here and I’m not a statistician, but I was a physicist and of course physicists know about everything (XKCD cartoon here: https://xkcd.com/793/). But as I understand it, a surprisingly small number of respondents will give you an accurate result if they are 1. truly randomly selected and 2. representative. I have read that pollsters are having an increasingly difficult time with their samples due to nobody answering their phones anymore. Then on top of that, their goal for election polling is not just to report results, as they might for marketing or policy questions, but to predict the election, so on top of the data about responses they apply a model of who is likely to show up to vote. Most polling misses are due to the models, not to the sample size, again as I understand it. Plus of course there is the possibility of respondents lying to pollsters, which is particularly likely for sensitive issues like abortion. (The Kansas initiative was polling at basically tied, and I also recall a vote in Mississippi a few years ago on “fetal personhood” which polled winning, but was utterly blown out.)
The economic situation hasn’t really changed that much over the past month to a few weeks — we’ve had inflation for some time now. Maybe the uptick in gas prices could drive it (thanks, Saudis) though in my area that’s been relatively modest.
Geminid
@MisterForkbeard: Musk is tossing out a red herring. Crimea is the last part of its territory Ukraine wants to reclaim. Southern cities like Kherson, Melitipol and Mariupol are much more important. The parts of Luhansk and Donets that Russia took in 2014 are next in importance. I believe that a jackal with strong Ukraine ties has said that the Crimea is of questionable value, a kind of “white elephant” for whoever holds it. Ukraine might well agree to a ceasefire that left it in Russian hands even though it would not cede it by treaty.
Musk is trying to divert attention from Russia’s daily attacks on Ukrainian civilians, and the mass graves of victims Russia left behind when Ukraine’s armed forces chased them from its territory.
UncleEbeneezer
If you haven’t already, everybody should really watch this excellent segment by John Oliver on Transgender Rights. He debunks so many of the myths that Conservatives are using to dehumanize Trans People and kids. The whole thing is quite thorough and very well done.
#TransRightsAreHumanRights
#ProtectTransKids
dm
@Omnes Omnibus: See Tamara’s following post. The tweeter there said it more effectively than I did.
SuzieC
@Betty Cracker: Me too. Attended my third letter writing party yesterday for Indivisible Central Ohio. We are on track to write 10,000 letters into Marcy Kaptur’s District and OH-1 with Chabot/Landsman. That’s not even to mention the thousands of postcards our members have written into Georgia, Florida, and for the Ohio Supreme Court.
catclub
@Ken:
Or Demotivator posters.
Immanentize
@cain: Does no one remember the 1991 democratic plebiscite regarding independence in which the country went overwhelmingly for independence from Russia? Even a majority of people in Crimea voted to be with Ukraine.
Case closed, no? Musk’s “history” is Russian propaganda.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I got the impression this time around the poll weighing is pretty useless because between the SCOTUS ruling, pandemic cause demographic changes, Trump’s treason antics and the war over there, this is an atypical election.
My, out on a limb prediction, is the special elections show that if the GOPers is bat shit nutters the polls end up off 10 points against him. So it going to come down to how many GOP candidates are nutters in these purple districts.
James E Powell
@Eyeroller:
In the part of Los Angeles where I buy gas, the price dropped 0.80 since last Thursday
Immanentize
@James E Powell: News at the twelfth of never!
Jackie
Is WaterGirl putting up a post for tonight’s debates? I’m interested in the Lee/McMullin debate and Stacey/Kemp debate. And I think Ohio has senate debate part II?
brendancalling
I haven’t done any letter writing, but I’ve been canvassing for Fetterman and Shapiro the past few weekends. Going out this weekend as well.
We’re getting a steady—and cold—rain right now in Philly. Comin’ down in pails. Lightning too!
Finally moved into my own place too. It’s been awhile.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus:
I for one support making them claim voter fraud every two years.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Eyeroller: Also worth noting that polling, like most attempts at predictive math, is useless in an atypical situation.
And speaking of gas prices, the gas were I live shot down 30c a gallon in one day. Which is just as odd as when it shot up 50c a gallon earlier this month.
trollhattan
@Baud: We can attach him to a hundred Iranian drones and deliver the man, himself, to Moscow.
HinTN
My cousin, who is a staunch Utah Republican, is loudly proclaiming his vote for the Independent and his revulsion with MAGA. That’s something.
Villago Delenda Est
@trollhattan:
Pretty much my first reaction. These people are not conservative, they’re reactionary.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, well, Mike Lee went behind Mike Lee’s back and turned in that editorial endorsing Mike Lee without out Mike Lee knowing. Mike Lee is a senator and has important matters of national interest to mind and can’t just watch Mike Lee all day for games like this! Mike Lee is clearly the victim here.
Geminid
Evan McMullin is close to upsetting Mike Lee because Utah Democrats endorsed him at their April state convention. This was a controversial move, and while ~780 delegates voted for it, ~590 voted against. A month later, polling by the Deseret News found that a majority of Utah Democrats approved of the endorsement, although 20% “strongly disapproved.”
Other than the Senate race, Democrats are fielding a full slate of candidates in Utah this year. Their tactical alliance with McMullin may even net them some votes in other races, but that is just speculation.
HinTN
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I have written the following 75 times with another 25 to go.
I am writing to you from Tennessee because I believe that this election is critical to saving our democracy. Democrats need (insert name here) to represent your district to hold the House. [When there’s a Senate race I add] They also need (Insert name here) in the Senate. Please vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.
Then I sign my name (first only).
YMMV
Geminid
@brendancalling: I hope it’s a happy home for you!
HinTN
@Betty Cracker:
Shoulda thought of that. Sigh, that’s why you’re the best!
CarolPW
@UncleEbeneezer: Thank you, that was great.
Betty Cracker
@HinTN: Ha! Well, I am a locally famous copywriter. I bet in meat space, most of y’all have read something I wrote without knowing it was written by a familiar foul-mouthed, swamp-dwelling harpy!
Princess
I am a pessimist and I’m always, always wrong when I predict politics but: my gut is that the polls are right and Dems are going to fall short in many races. Not by a mile but by enough.
Go ahead and do the volunteer work and canvassing to prove me wrong.
Trusting Dobbs will outweigh inflation required me to trust white women (well, 50% of them) waaaay more than I do. And I am one. I think at the end of the day they’ll cross their fingers, hope for the best for themselves, and vote with money and their husbands like they always do.
UncleEbeneezer
@CarolPW: Agreed. I love how he easily debunked EVERY major claim these assholes make about Transgender Rights:
• Trans kids/people are NOT dominating sports
• Trans kids DON’T have access to surgeries
• Trans kids are NOT getting hormones and puberty blockers without parental and medical expert’s input
• There is no widespread movement of regretful, Detransitioning people. It’s only 2% and half of those only Detransition because our society doesn’t support them enough!!
• Puberty blocking isn’t irreversible, PUBERTY IS!!
• There has never been any wave of attacks or threats from Trans people at Cisgender people in shared bathrooms
• Every major medical, psychological organization supports the value of Gender Affirming Care
• The other side’s “experts” are all Xtian Fundamentalists who openly hate LGBTQ people
Etc.
And I love how he emphasizes the sheer joy/relief that Trans kids feel when allowed to transition. It makes them happier and does no harm to the rest of us, and that really is all that should matter.
PS- I haven’t watched it yet, but apparently Jon Stewart’s AppleTV special on the same topic, is really superb, as well.
C Stars
@UncleEbeneezer: I’m so happy to see people with some visibility speaking out against all the hate and lies. It was starting to feel like trans kids were going to get rolled over by the hate machine with no pushback from popular media. I hope to see more of this.
Major Major Major Major
Honestly I’m basically tuning out the polling this cycle. We’ll know real soon what’s going to happen! Results might give me hope for pollsters going forward…
Baud
@Major Major Major Major:
👍
Dan B
@UncleEbeneezer: Great summary! Well have to watch it on the big screen soon. I had the good fortune to spend time with a number of trans leaders and influencers decades ago, and for several decades. One was my Democratic party supervisor. She was a character and fun to spend time with. She’d been head of the very large oenological society and had wine tastings at her apartment.
CarolPW
@UncleEbeneezer: All of those kids and parents were hugely relatable. And how could anyone deny that adorable blond girl appropriate bathroom access? Like choosing Rosa Parks for the bus, trans advocates are putting their most non-threatening foot forward to make their points.
MomSense
I’m making volunteer calls for poll watchers/voter protection. I thought they would have me doing persuasion calls but apparently the big concern is making sure same day registration and voter challenges are covered.
kalakal
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Don’t go Orlando Figes on us :-)
He really was a slimeball, the final straw was throwing his wife under the bus.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/apr/23/historian-orlando-figes-amazon-reviews-rivals?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Sheldon Vogt
@Patricia Kayden: Moran would be a hell of a surprise!
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@p.a.: Spoliers!
TaMara
@HinTN: Inject that directly into my veins.
Two rabbits
Any free polling sites I can look at that have state legislature races?
I am particularly interested in Michigan state senate and state house.
I think Cook Political report has them, but must pay.
crunched thru 2 pages of search results without success
thanks
StringOnAStick
@Two rabbits: Polls for state legislature races are notorious for being nonexistent and unavailable to us regular folks, sorry.
J R in WV
And that Russian Navy base in Crimea — it can’t reach any ocean outside the Black Sea, a tiny lake of an ocean, without the complete cooperation of the Turks, who control the very narrow straits between the Black Sea and the Med. So not really as important as Pearl in Hawaii.
Also, RU took control of Crimea in 2014, not forever ago at all. After giving it to Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving Russia back the nuclear weapons that were Ukranian after the USSR broke apart some decades ago. Along with a promise of eternal friendship and peace, which was obviously not worth the paper that agreement was written on. Putin is less honorable than a crooked body-shop manager!
Kristine
@Mousebumples:
That’s why I will be signing up with them–it’s my first time writing cards and I need guidance. I ordered postcards from their Etsy store yesterday and received notice that they shipped today. I could have them as early as Wednesday. Ordered the stamps online from USPS–those could take a couple of days as well.
Kristine
@HinTN: Thanks–I saved your verbiage in case I need to add to PTV’s.
Betty Cracker
@UncleEbeneezer: Saw a clip from Stewart’s show on Twitter. He was interviewing a simpering wingnut pol whose name/state I’ve forgotten, but he ably dismantled her bullshit. Stewart is a mixed bag in my book, but when he gets his teeth into a righteous cause, he’s the best kind of ally.
Elizabelle
@HinTN: Thank you! I like your language for postcards.
@Princess: I hope you turn out to be wrong again. Didn’t happen in Kansas.
I agree with Omnes (as usual); I don’t think the polls are adequately assessing Dobbs. And the insurrection/fragility of democracy.
That FTF NY Times headline took the wind out of my sails, for a while this morning, although I don’t trust them much, either.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@kalakal: Holy cow, that guy had nerve
HinTN
@Betty Cracker: I would be honored to have such knowledge. Alas, here in the sticks, I’m doubtful the fruits of your labor have passed the transom.
HinTN
@Betty Cracker:
And we do love you for it.
kalakal
@Dorothy A. Winsor: The dumb thing was he didn’t need to do any of it. He had a very prestigous academic post, was highly respected, had sold well in the past and had gotten good reviews. He was a complete idiot as well as a complete arsehole
Another Scott
@Calouste: Small numbers can work, if you know the magic to do to make the sample representative.
A poll in Kansas of 1557 voters less than 2 weeks before the primary day said Yes 47, No 43 with 10% undecided.
The actual results, less than 2 weeks later, were Yes 40.84%, No 59.16%.
Pollsters have a hard job, especially during pandemics and their aftermath, especially post-Dobbs. I’m not convinced that most of them know how to adjust their samples to be representative now.
We’ll see!
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Cmorenc
@Calouste: That’s why detailed crosstabs indicating the actual composition, location, etc of the sample is. A 4% statistical margin of error in a sample of 792 assumes a random, unbiased sample, but that assumption dissolved if you have to add secret sauce to correct assumed skewing of the actual sample undertepresenting some components and overrepresenting others. Or in statistics-speak, the 4% represents standard deviation of the sample from an accurate one, but again that’s only valid if the sample is accurately representative eg of folks refusing to answer pollster survey calls
Mousebumples
@Kristine: sounds great! I’d start the sign up process if you haven’t already. They have you do a sample postcard with their messaging before they share any address details so they don’t have people not following directions who are contacting the target voters. Their etsy postcards are amazing, but any old postcards (or upcycled cardstock) works too!
Happy postcarding!
StringOnAStick
@Mousebumples: I got my Etsy vote postcards yesterday and wrote another 40 today; it’s almost like conjuring the desired outcome by writing their scripts over and over. I like the heavier cardstock better than pre-stamped USPS blank postcards, plus these have nice colourful “vote” graphics. I’ll get another set of addresses tomorrow. It feels like actually doing something positive instead of wanting to curl up in the fetal position. I live in a 100% vote by mail state, so poll watching isn’t a thing here.
Paul in KY
@p.a.: Did she even tell Elrond & Celebrimbor that he was Sauron? I couldn’t tell.
Paul in KY
@BC in Illinois: Any poll under 2,000 is basically worthless.
Paul in KY
@Calouste: A =/- 4 is worthless in a poll. Could be 50 – 50, could be 54 – 46 who knows?
Paul in KY
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Well done (says Mike Lee too)!