(Image posted by Illia Ponomarenko)
About eight hours or so ago the Russians targeted a civilian residential apartment block in Dnipro.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 14, 2023
Dnipro.
People are screaming under the house debris…
WARCH THIS AND SEE WHY WE BEG THE WORLD FOR WEAPONS. pic.twitter.com/QUAcyLckUj— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 14, 2023
The also targeted Avdiivka:
In Avdiivka, at least three civilians killed after barbaric Russian shelling.
God knows how many dozen killed and injured in a missile hit in Dnipro.
That’s everyday life in Ukraine under Russian attack.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 14, 2023
And over half a dozen other Ukrainian cities.
These were not strikes on military targets. They were strikes on civilian residences, civilian power generation and transmission infrastructure, civilian water treatment facilities, civilian food production and storage facilities. As Bellingcat’s investigators have previously established, this isn’t accidental targeting or missing a legitimate target because the maps are old or bad or human error. This is the deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure. It is being done as part of a genocidal campaign based on a factually inaccurate revisionist history that writes Ukraine out of Ukraine’s own history and replaces it with the people of Moscow. And then asserts that those people are a special race descended from the ancient arctic gods.
More after President Zelenskyy’s address. Video of that is below, the English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)
I will begin this address without a greeting. And I want to be heard by those people – not only political leaders – who are still hesitating whether it is worth providing Ukraine with the weapons that will help us defeat the terrorist state this year.
Russia has launched another heavy missile attack on Ukrainian cities. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kryvy Rih, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Ladyzhyn, Burshtyn, Lviv region, Khmelnytsky and other cities were targets of terrorists. Civilian objects are everywhere!
In the city of Dnipro, a residential building has been destroyed in this Russian strike. An ordinary nine-story panel building, of which there are quite a few in various cities of Eastern and Central Europe. All floors of this building – from the second to the ninth – were smashed in the explosion of a Russian missile.
It was possible to save dozens of people – wounded, traumatized, treatment is being provided to them. Among them are children, the youngest girl is three years old.And these are figures for now.
Debris clearance is still ongoing and will continue throughout the night. It’s not yet known how many people are under the rubble. Unfortunately, the death toll is growing every hour… My condolences to relatives and friends
Can Russian terror be stopped? Yes.
Is it possible to do it somehow differently than on the battlefield in Ukraine? Unfortunately no. This can and must be done on our land, in our sky, in our sea.
What is needed for this? Those weapons that are in the warehouses of our partners and that our troops are so waiting for.
No amount of persuasion or just passing the time will stop the terrorists who are methodically killing our people with missiles, drones bought in Iran, their own artillery, tanks and mortars. The whole world knows what can stop and how it’s possible to stop those who sow death.
This apartment block in Dnipro was on a street called Naberezhna Peremohy. When they gave this name to this street, they had in mind the victory over the Nazis in the Second World War. Ruscists took over everything from that enemy of the free world. It’s obvious. And we must do everything we can to stop ruscism, just as the free world once stopped Nazism.
And I thank everyone who helps us in this!
I spoke today with the Prime Minister of the UK about some very important things for our defense. Details will come later. But it’s important. It’s really what is needed. And I believe that similar decisions will still be made by other partners – those who understand why such evil cannot be given a single chance. Because such evil knows no boundaries.
Eternal memory to all whose lives were taken by ruscism!
Glory to all who defend people!
All services are now working in the sites hit by Russian missiles. Let’s fight for every person!
Out of more than 30 missiles launched towards Ukraine during the day, more than 20 were shot down. These are hundreds of saved lives. I thank our Air Force, our airmen and everyone who helps.
Unfortunately, energy infrastructure facilities have been also hit. In this regard, the most difficult situation is in Kharkiv region and Kyiv region. Repair crews are doing their best to restore power generation and supply as soon as possible, and work will continue around the clock.
And the enemy will receive our answer on the battlefield for sure. Our soldiers will do that.
Anyone involved in this and other missile strikes against Ukraine will be found and brought to justice.
Glory to Ukraine!
Russian terrorism must be defeated. pic.twitter.com/6kCBeR7AtI
— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) January 14, 2023
Appalled by latest Russian strikes in Ukraine today, incl. in Dnipro. Five deaths, dozens injured, incl. children. Thoughts are with Dnipro & all affected.
Australia will do everything possible to support Ukraine & to ensure Russia is held accountability for all crimes committed. pic.twitter.com/gsxCNDyk2x— Bruce Edwards 🇦🇺🇺🇦🇲🇩 (@AUinUA) January 14, 2023
Reuters has some of the details:
KYIV, Jan 14 (Reuters) – Russia unleashed a major missile attack on Ukraine on Saturday, smashing a nine-storey apartment block in the city of Dnipro, killing at least five people and striking vital energy facilities, officials said.
Ukraine’s energy minister said the coming days would be “difficult” as months of Russian bombardment of the power grid threaten the supply of electricity, running water and central heating at the height of winter.
In the east-central city of Dnipro, 20 people were rescued from an apartment block where an entire section of the building had been reduced to rubble, sending smoke billowing into the sky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office said.
“Tragedy. I’ve gone to the site…. We will be going through the rubble all night,” said Borys Filatov, mayor of the rocket-making city on the Dnipro River.
Five people were killed and at least 60 people, including 12 children, were also wounded in the attack, with more people were still trapped under the rubble, the regional governor said.
Another person was killed and one wounded in the steel-making city of Kryviy Rih where six houses were damaged in President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s hometown, mayor Oleksandr Vilkul said.
Much more at the link.
A woman in shock and clutching a piece of holiday tinsel and a stuffed animal as she sits precariously atop the pile of rubble that moments earlier was her home, waiting to be rescued. This is one of those images that gets seared into your brain after an attack like this. https://t.co/Ybj59jqFGu
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 14, 2023
All right. I see overwhelmingly positive feedback from you guys. Let’s send the girl $5,000 — that will be helpful to her and her parents in need.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 14, 2023
Kyiv:
Klitschko just wrote on telegram that a Russian missile was shot down by air defenses in a nonresidential part of Holosiivskyi district; no casualties.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 14, 2023
Kopyliv:
A missile hit the village of Kopyliv this morning, about 50km west of Kyiv.
(Reuters) pic.twitter.com/sjAdOAYRu9
— James Waterhouse (@JamWaterhouse) January 14, 2023
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments from Bakhmut, Kherson, and Kremenna:
BAKHMUT /0014 UTC 14 JAN/ A RU breakthrough at Kurdiumivka occurred on 12 JAN. RU forces advanced NW along the watercourse and were stopped on 13 JAN short of the vital H-32 HWY. RU attacks on Krasna Hora & Podhorodne were broken up east of the T-05-13 / M-03 road junction. pic.twitter.com/FGFPWTz06Q
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 14, 2023
KHERSON AXIS /1110 UTC 14 JAN 2023/ UKR Partisans & SOF continue cross-river reconnaissance and targeting missions. On 12-13 JAN, UKR precision strikes were carried out a Russian S-300 air defense complex. RU Counter-Intelligence (CI) units have increased repressive measures. pic.twitter.com/j13ezy8jGy
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 14, 2023
KREMINNA AXIS /1145 UTC 14 JAN/ On 13 JAN, RU motor rifle troops mounted a defensive effort. UKR forces rallied & staged a counterattack, pushing RU units east, back into the W suburbs of Kreminna. On 14 JAN, UKR units are again confirmed to be in contact within the city limits. pic.twitter.com/RRPnkFpiTn
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 14, 2023
KREMINNA: On the night of 12-13 JAN, UKR forces briefly entered the W districts of Kreminna. RU forces soon after concentrated for a strong counter attack. @sentdefender reports that RU reinforcements include VDV (Airborne) units including the 76th Guards Air Assault Division. https://t.co/YitGerI5OT pic.twitter.com/ZpV0EQ7h0c
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 14, 2023
Soledar:
Ukrainian flag in the Western part of Soledar in the morning of 14 January – Magyar. pic.twitter.com/W8yl305lXF
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 14, 2023
Update on Bakhmut and Soledar, 14 January – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/BcOTHAx2lL
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 14, 2023
The Financial Times has an interesting analysis about the cost to Russia from the attempt to take Soledar and Ukraine’s strategic reasoning for trying to hold it:
Frontline dispatches from the besieged town of Severodonetsk depicted apocalyptic scenes of destroyed buildings and blood-soaked fields. Despite its lack of military significance, Ukrainian forces stood their ground, inflicting heavy casualties on their Russian foes, depleting their ammunition and weaponry — and opening the way for two subsequent successful counter-offensives.
This “meat grinder” strategy was deployed this past summer in the eastern Donbas town, and military analysts say Kyiv has pursued the same tactic in north-east Ukraine around Soledar, whose capture by Russia on Friday may prove to be another pyrrhic victory for Moscow.
The fall of the salt-mining town, where fighting has raged for more than two weeks, could make it harder for Ukraine to hold nearby Bakhmut, a city of symbolic importance whose seizure would bring Russia its first significant military success since the summer.
But Moscow’s capture of Soledar — and possibly eventually Bhakmut — could matter less than the losses inflicted on its forces in the fight.
One adviser to Ukraine’s defence ministry, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Kyiv’s strategic approach to Soledar and Bakhmut was the same as in Severodonetsk. After that battle, Ukraine’s forces went on to rout Russian troops and recapture Kharkiv and Kherson.
Similarly, Ukraine’s soldiers, reinforced with western-supplied armour, could potentially take advantage of Russia’s manpower losses in Bakhmut to launch a powerful counter offensive, the adviser said.
“From a purely military perspective, a Severodonetsk 2.0 strategy is fine for Ukraine — so long as the fight costs the Russian forces disproportionally more than the Ukrainian army,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank.
“That is the horrible and inhuman arithmetic of this fight. Unfortunately, it is the reality,” he added.
The Ukrainian reserve colonel Sergei Grabskyi told the Geopolitics Decanted podcast: “The reason to keep the Bakhmut line is to attract more and more Russian forces . . . chop them up and exhaust them. That may then create some options . . . for Ukrainian offensives [elsewhere].”
Russian forces have already suffered huge losses. According to Ukrainian special forces officer Taras Berezovets, who was recently in Soledar, casualties among the Wagner group mercenaries and elite VDV paratroopers who spearheaded the assault totalled several thousand.
That is in line with US estimates that 4,000 of Wagner’s 50,000 mercenaries have been killed on the Soledar-Bakhmut front line, with 10,000 injured.
“The Ukrainians are taking losses every day,” said a western official. “Russia is calculating that Ukraine will run out of resources first. There are possibly tough times coming. The Ukrainians are not bulletproof.”
The battle for Soledar and Bakhmut has also absorbed thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who could be deployed elsewhere.
Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based military consultancy, estimated that as many as 12 Ukrainian brigades, equivalent to about 50,000 troops, had been sent to the Bakhmut front. The large number meant soldiers could be rotated to keep them fresh and maintain their combat readiness, Muzyka said, adding that this was “one of the lessons the Ukrainians learnt after Severodonetsk”.
Much more at the link!
Last night someone asked what Ukraine asking for tanks indicated. My response in a reply comment still stands, but this is another reason why Ukraine needs to be supplied with tanks ASAP!
Exactly the warning I’ve heard from several officials.@Jack_Watling: “The risk – not a prediction – is that if Ukraine commits its reserves to a spring offensive and takes heavy casualties it could become vulnerable later in the year.” https://t.co/m8gA2ujVuc
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 14, 2023
This is what we wrote in December on the issue of timing, and the risks of Ukraine going too early or too late. https://t.co/uGItNhY4Ce pic.twitter.com/vmxvL2AIv5
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 14, 2023
Jack Watling is the Senior Fellow for land warfare at RUSI in London:
The prospect of several countries providing Ukraine with Nato-designed main battle tanks offers a pathway towards renewed momentum in Kyiv’s bid to reclaim its territory from Russian occupation. The next six months will probably be critical to this effort. Enabling Ukraine to operate these vehicles, however, will require more than just the tanks to be delivered to the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Russian military has been engaged in a sustained assault on the town of Bakhmut for months to little effect. The fields around the town are littered with the corpses of Russian soldiers, while the rate of fire from Russia’s artillery is declining as it faces shortages of spare barrels and some munitions. With much of Russia’s available forces committed, the spring offers the opportunity for Ukraine to go on the attack.
Russia’s current unfavourable position is not inevitably indefinite, however. Having mobilised 280,000 citizens over the autumn and with the potential for further rounds of mobilisation, the Russian military may begin to generate new combat units over time. Moreover, although the dysfunction of the Russian government is currently limiting its industrial output, the state has the raw materials and machining to stabilise its supply problems over time. The risk – not a prediction – is that if Ukraine commits its reserves to a spring offensive and takes heavy casualties it could become vulnerable later in the year.
Maximising the gains achievable in the spring and limiting the cost in Ukrainian lives for an offensive is key to mitigating this risk. For this task, Nato-designed armoured vehicles such as the Bradleys and Marders already promised alongside potential future deliveries of Leopard 2 main battle tanks, would be ideal. Fielded in sufficient numbers, these vehicles would protect the Ukrainian troops from artillery while they advance and help to knock out Russian armour and bunkers.
The provision of Nato armour to support manoeuvres would also help resolve the supply limitations Ukraine’s partners are finding in the provision of artillery ammunition. Without armour, the Ukrainian armed forces are likely to be more reliant on artillery and therefore fire more ammunition to advance. Armour offers Ukrainian troops the prospect of making greater gains firing fewer shells.
Despite these sound operational reasons for providing Ukraine with armour, the provision of Nato-designed main battle tanks presents some major challenges. The Leopard 2, weighing about 69 tonnes, and Challenger 2, weighing 72 tonnes, are more than 20 tonnes heavier than the Soviet-designed main battle tanks currently operated by Ukraine. There is little Ukrainian infrastructure along which such heavy vehicles can travel, while their engineering and recovery vehicles are optimised to support Soviet designs. Putting aside the training needed to maintain and fight with Nato-designed tanks, they would also need to be provided alongside combat engineering and mobility support vehicles if they were to be employable at any scale.
It is this requirement for enablers that poses hard choices on Nato members wanting to offer Ukraine their vehicles. After the cold war, frontline tank fleets declined significantly, while the cutbacks in bridging, breaching and transport and recovery vehicles have been even more severe. Most countries operate the bare minimum of these vehicles to meet their Nato commitments and even in these small fleets vehicle unavailability due to low maintenance is a problem because of underinvestment during the “war on terror”.
The upshot is that Ukraine’s international partners are approaching a hard fork in the road. For months, they have gifted equipment they have held in storage. Although these donations have been expressed in dollar terms, few of them have incurred heavy financial costs to donors. As donations begin to push into critical fleets and stockpiles, however, Ukraine’s partners face the need to invest in regenerating their capabilities as well as supporting Ukraine. In a challenging financial environment, they have tried to defer this decision. But if they want a Ukrainian victory, then they can defer it no longer. To defer investment is to offer Russia an opportunity to protract the war.
I think the issue goes beyond the spring offensive or even Ukraine. If Russia announces another wave of mobilisation and expands its armed forces, then the war in Ukraine will last years. Europe lacks tanks not only to support Ukraine but also to defend itself. https://t.co/ZQKPcSlTJG
— Konrad Muzyka – Rochan Consulting (@konrad_muzyka) January 14, 2023
Right now Ukraine is fighting two enemies, the Russians and time. The longer things grind on, the harder things will become for the Ukrainians. Every day that goes by is another day that Russia has to conscript more of its population. It then will continue to divert a portion of the conscripts for cannon fodder to be immediately sacrificed to drag things out and exhaust Ukrainian resources so that a larger portion of the conscripts can be trained into actual soldiers. The longer the war lasts, the harder things will become for the Ukrainians.
To answer another question posed in last comments, this reality is why I do not give the Biden administration the benefit of the doubt despite their having done a good job so far in supporting Ukraine. The President, and from what I can tell especially the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (APNSA/National Security Advisor) are still too cautious by half.
Your daily Patron!
— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 14, 2023
I know you feel terrible about all of those pictures. We are terrified to see it and to feel it over and over for real. https://t.co/HFe6U6Emby
— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 14, 2023
Open thread!
Chetan Murthy
This is only slightly off-topic: it’s about the economics of war, and how they were analyzed for Nazi Germany in WWII. I think it’s relevant, as we think about Russia and the Russian population in this war. And it’s by Adam Tooze, so …. well, often worth a read.
https://adamtooze.com/2023/01/07/chartbook-186-solicitous-dictatorship-the-political-economy-of-authoritarianism-aly-v-tooze-revisited/
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: It is an interesting piece. The issue, in the reality that is the US since the mid 1970s, is that we decided that denying ourselves – ourselves here means the government – the revenue to actually be able to fund a robust defense sector and provide substantial domestic public goods such as universal health care, a robustly funded education system from pre-school through undergraduate education, proper domestic transport infrastructure at the municipal, state, and national levels, etc. We could have both guns and butter, but we’ve decided that too many of us do not deserve the latter.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Isn’t it? The first part where Tooze invokes Schumpeter and his framing of fiscal policy as a way of reading the priorities of a state and society are really evocative. And just as you say, just as you say.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: Unfortunately, it is the type of piece I’m going to need to read multiple times to get at everything he’s packed in there. I appreciate you sharing it.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I also felt like there was a message there for adversaries of Russia: we need to not flinch from imposing economic costs on the Russian population, b/c at some point, those costs will become so great that they’ll rebel. Every regime has to spend some treasure on keeping their population onside, and making that more expensive for the regime means less resources to spend on waging war.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Goetz Aly’s Hitler’s Beneficiaries was … *amazing*. Aly ties together
the way that freight allowances allowed Nazi soldiers to basically ship home the wealth of occupied countries — and documented with “shopping lists” from their families back home!
the way that occupation administrations used various forms of scrip to keep occupied country economies going while systematically looting them
the many instances where Jewish communities in occupied countries were first dispossessed and then murdered, so their worldly goods could be shipped to the home front (literally, clothes and furniture) and their wealth could be used to either prop up occupied economies, or to fund the war effort
And he uses the example of Heinrich Boll (famous German postwar writer) as a Nazi soldier, so that we have memorable examples of these things in-progress
Just an amazing book.
ETA: And again to Tooze/Schumpeter’s point, Aly does it all from the point-of-view of an economist, or economic historian. Just a shocking and deeply penetrating way of looking at that history.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t think they’ll rebel.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I wanna say “on this day, I weep”, but really, it’s every day. Sigh. You might be right. I want to say “didn’t the Russian Army rebel in WW 1 ?” But then, the instruments of state suppression are so much better-developed now, than they were then.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: ZG will hopefully be along to correct me, and I expect I will need to be, but my understanding is that even when there have been revolutions in Russia, they haven’t been widespread in terms of participation. We tend to focus a lot on Moscow and St. Petersburg. To Russian elites and notables. But the vast majority of Russians have been less well off to poor. This was the case under the tsars, under the Soviets, and it remains the case under Putin. They’re trying to survive day to day. Rebellion isn’t really in their understanding of options for dealing with the unfortunate reality in which they live.
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: Just getting even more of them to try to flee the country would probably be helpful at least.
Adam L Silverman
@Eolirin: No, not it wouldn’t. All it would do would be to create dozens of smaller problems wherever they flee too. The people who have been fleeing since the conscription started aren’t fleeing because they want Russia to leave Ukraine alone. Rather they are fleeing or trying to so that they don’t have to risk their lives in the re-invasion of Ukraine. They’re the worst of the worst. They can’t be bothered to actually stay and try to oppose Putin and the Russian leadership because they don’t really disagree with them. But they also can’t be bothered to stay and put their money where their mouth’s are and risk their own lives. So they flee and take their authoritarian revanchist Russian ethno-chauvinism with them.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I certainly agree with your view regarding most of the recent emigres, but …. isn’t it still the case that the more economic damage RU suffers, the more those elites in Muscovy are impacted, and eventually they’ll be forced to rebel ?
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: No. For all that they’ve been sanctioned by the US, the EU states, the UK, Canada, NZ, and Australia, the bulk of their money is in places we can’t touch it and they’ll just switch their spending to other locales.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: If I read you right, I think you’re saying:
“Look, dream about using peaceful means all you like; they won’t work, and you need to face reality that if Russia is going to be *stopped*, it will happen, can only happen, on the battlefield, so get busy getting Ukraine the means to make that happen … again, on the battlefield. Stop futzing around about that, b/c it’s the only way.”
The Moar You Know
@Chetan Murthy: they never rebelled in Nazi Germany. I don’t know why they would in these circumstances.
The German elites did just fine after the Nazi state fell. Elites always do just fine. They know that.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: I have only been writing it here on the front page since NOV 2021. So yes, you are reading me correctly. We have the chance to reduce the Russian military for pennies on the dollar without ever risking one American life – or, given that we do have Americans volunteering in the Ukrainian International Legion and I don’t want to discount or disparage their efforts – one active American service member’s life.
kindness
Russia seems to be begging NATO to step into the conflict. I don’t understand that but I don’t understand a lot of the Masters of the Universe out there today.
Andrya
Adam L Silverman: “Right now Ukraine is fighting two enemies, the Russians and time.”
With great respect, I’d say there is a third enemy: the American political process. Congressional Republicans are mobilizing to use the debt limit to end, or severely curtail, American aid to Ukraine. (Link) And, of course, if (G-d forbid) TFG wins the presidency in 2024, aid to Ukraine will stop completely. It’s important to give money to Ukrainian causes, but it is far, far, more important- existentially important- that the Democrats regain congress and hold the presidency in 2024. We must do everything legal and constitutional to make this happen. The survival of Ukraine- also of Finland, Moldova, and the Baltic states, depends on it.
As always, Adam, thanks for doing this.
Slava Ukraini!
Adam L Silverman
@kindness: Russia has been claiming they have been directly fighting NATO since they started the re-invasion. Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership think they can make a winning argument to the Russian people if they were actually fighting NATO based on how they’ve propagandized the Russian population that NATO has been responsible for every bad thing that has happened to Russia since the end of the Soviet Union.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: I’d list that under all the negative follow on effects under time, but you are absolutely correct regardless of where any of us rack and stack things.
Gvg
I am not so sure it wouldn’t help if more of them fled Russia if they could be diluted. They seem to have been raised feral and never allowed to develop a social consciousness which I think needs a little safety and a little security plus some good example help. But from what I have seem when they immigrate in masses, they end up causing problems and when they are diluted, their children or grandchildren are more like the transplant environment. I specifically think Israel has been corrupted by Russian immigration and our east coast mobs…anywhere they are allowed to go needs to be somewhere prepared to prevent a mafia type establishment underground. But spread them out and limit concentration.
Boy I sound bigoted. I just don’t want the stuff I hear from the Russian nationalist to take root elsewhere. And yes I know we have our own terrible nationalists….Iraq IMO and especially Guantanamo were bad on us..
Chetan Murthy
@Gvg: Just remember now, there’s no such thing as a bad culture. Nosirreee! If I point a gun at you, tell you to kill that man/woman/child over there or you’ll be killed, there’s no moral fault in killing them. Or, y’know, raping/torturing/and-then-killing them. Nosirree.
Bill Arnold
This from that Tooze piece is interesting and a bit scary. I.e. is the Russian state attempting a Russian analogue of Nazi militarism?
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: to your point:
Jay
Jay
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: I can’t remember where I saw it – maybe the thread in your last night’s post – but someone on Twitter said the same thing in response to the question, “why are we giving Ukraine so much stuff”: “Because by doing so we can destroy the Russian Army without sacrificing the life of one American soldier.”
Or words to that effect.
The Pale Scot
Russia’s artillery is declining as it faces shortages of spare barrels.
Finally, that took longer than I thought it would.
“divert a portion of the conscripts for cannon fodder to be immediately sacrificed to drag things out and exhaust Ukrainian resources so that a larger portion of the conscripts can be trained into actual soldiers.”
I don’t think RU has that capacity. I can’t remember how the Soviets trained their troops, my understanding is that they are herded onto buses soused to gills, sent to a location to sort them out with a brief orientation (this is the end the bullet comes out of) and sent to a regiment which suppose to train them up to speck. Almost all of the Soviet era training facilities have been closed and I assume stripped of anything sellable. RU doesn’t have the ability to train them up to actual soldiers. In WW2 they just shipped them all to the front and let the Mórrígan choose. They don’t seem to have progressed from that program.
One thing the West could do is upgrade UKR’s counter battery capabilities.
the pale scot @ gmail
Russia’s artillery is declining as it faces shortages of spare barrels.
Finally, that took longer than I thought it would.
“divert a portion of the conscripts for cannon fodder to be immediately sacrificed to drag things out and exhaust Ukrainian resources so that a larger portion of the conscripts can be trained into actual soldiers.”
I don’t think RU has that capacity. I can’t remember how the Soviets trained their troops, my understanding is that they are herded onto buses soused to gills, sent to a location to sort them out with a brief orientation (this is the end the bullet comes out of) and sent to a regiment which suppose to train them up to speck. Almost all of the Soviet era training facilities have been closed and I assume stripped of anything sellable. RU doesn’t have the ability to train them up to actual soldiers. In WW2 they just shipped them all to the front and let the Mórrígan choose. They don’t seem to have progressed from that program.
One thing the West could do is upgrade UKR’s counter battery capabilities.
Mike in DC
I think by early next year, the final debate on weapon export will come down to fighter jets and ATACMS. My hope is that Ukraine makes enough progress to push an end in 2024.
AnotherKevin
I am so, so, so done with people who want to talk about how we have to have any sympathy for, or not cast blame on, Russians as a whole. Fuck them – militarily, economically, socially, in every way.
Jay
zhena gogolia
You are very hard on the people who have left Russia. There were a lot of people who fled Nazi germany and we didn’t expect them to stay and try to mount a revolution.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
For what percentage of them is this the case? Have they been surveyed, preferably with solid guarantees of anonymity, since most of them have family back in Russia?
Useful to know, since it affects the political complexion of those remaining.
To be clear, I will need to try to restrain myself from [violence] on physical encounter with any Russians who are not vigorously anti-current-genocidal-Russian-imperialism. (There have long been Russian mobsters in my area; thanks, R. Giuliani!)
zhena gogolia
Okay back to avoiding these threads
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: @Chetan Murthy: There are three events in my time working for the military that are frozen in my memory as if set in amber. One I don’t talk about except with teammates. One I’ve written about here before, the day we had to help the Georgians get home to try to defend themselves against Russian invasion. The third was in January 2014.
I was at US Army Europe (USAREUR) in Weisbaden, Germany. I was the Cultural Advisor to the Commanding General, on temporary assigned control (TACON), and was there to work on the DOD side of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process stuff that USAREUR had been assigned. It was about 7 PM and I was in the chief of plans office typing up my summary of the day’s working group for the Boss and the senior staff when he walked in trailed by the Deputy Commanding General for Operations, the Chief of Staff, and the XO. He apologized for interruption, explained that there was something he wanted the chief of plans and I to read, brought it up on one of the work stations, and then told said he was going to place a call and then we’d have an impromptu planning meeting at the conference table in the chief of plans office. The chief of plans, who I’d known and worked with for several years, and I began reading. I can’t go into what other than it was a summary sent back from the Senior Defense Official at Embassy Moscow. Now remember, this is the second week of January 2014. The Commanding General, who is a soft spoken guy, is on the phone with someone back in the US and he says: “I need tanks. Take every tank you have and send it to me right away. I don’t have enough tanks.” The chief of plans and I look at each other and go back to reading as quickly as we could.
I will never forget that moment. The Commanding General was a tanker/armor officer. Should the worst have happened he would have been the theater commander. And in his professional opinion, the couple of dozen tanks he had at various elements at the time were not going to cut it. It was at that point that I assigned myself the additional duty of preparing a strategic assessment of the Euromaidan movement/Revolution of Dignity; oligarchism, kleptocracy, and organized crime in Russia and Ukraine; and Putin’s possible intentions regarding Ukraine once the Olympics ended. I finished it the week before he moved to scarf up the Donbas and Crimea.
This has gone on far, far too long as it is. Whatever we can do that is feasible, acceptable, and suitable to bring this to a speedy Ukrainian victory the better.
Chetan Murthy
@zhena gogolia: When German emigre’s acted in any manner to support the Nazis, including just talk, weren’t they rounded-up and put in camps where they couldn’t endanger the war effort? That doesn’t seem to be happening to Russian emigre’s even as they rally for Putin in many Western countries. Even as they literally attack and threaten Ukrainian refugees in the West.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: I had seen the initial reporting on that and it was so confusing I couldn’t figure out what was going on.
Mike in NC
House Republicans will put Matt Gaetz and Empty Greene in charge of Ukraine support, with predictable results. Then maybe they’ll invite Putin to come to Washington, like they did with Netanyahu just to screw with Obama back in the day.
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: It was in the update. I put the tweet there.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Wagner mercenaries should be treated like the SS were in WWII.
That’s some serious low-level war-criming by Russians.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I’ve seen other OSINT reporting that Wagner soldiers have been photographed wearing Ukrainian uniforms. So not just this one instance. The one I remember had at least two Wagner soldiers in the pic, one in Russian uniform, the other Ukrainian uniform.
Leslie
We have got to do more. I have some faint hope that we might be doing more behind the scenes than we are admitting publicly, but however much we’re doing, it’s not enough.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: I am. I wasn’t alive then to hold the fleeing Nazi supporters to account.
Adam L Silverman
We’ve about reached the point where it would be strategic malpractice to source any weaponry or the components for weaponry or ammunition from Switzerland:
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I had to read that a couple of times. Ha! Very funny, Adam! “fleeing Nazi supporters”! Ha!
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: It’s like the people that supported the war in Vietnam and escalating it, but used every trick they could pull to avoid having to go and serve. Who have now spent the following 50 some odd years lecturing the rest of us about patriotism and national security.
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: This is probably not the ideal thread to address this in, but since it’s a distinction I’ve made that you’re responding to:
I distinguish social culture from institutional culture. The “them” in “we have to wipe them out”, vs. the barrel that bad apples spoil. Blue lines, consent decrees, you get the picture. Institutional culture can abuse social culture nearly to the point of eliminating it, but not quite.
What makes us different? What gives us room to speak? Our institutions mostly kind of work. The better they work, the better off we are. Wiping out social culture in any form doesn’t improve institutions – it’s a form of abuse, and only in favor of institutions that engage in abuse. It’s a kind of strength only recognizable by a definition where knocking down an occupied nine-story apartment building counts as strong. We don’t need that. Just no.
Chetan Murthy
@livewyre: No, it’s not the best thread for it. And you’re wrong. But hey, you do you.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: NOT ALL PEOPLE FLEEING RUSSIA ARE PUTIN SUPPORTERS. I would be very surprised if it were a majority. But I’m done.
All people of a certain nationality are evil demons. Let it be so.
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: If this is a “wipe them out” thread, contrary to instructions at the top of previous ones, then sure, my mistake. But I’m going to need a clearer indication than that.
Geminid nip
@Chetan Murthy: I think it’s a good thread to discuss these issues, if someone has something worth saying and is willing to withstand your attempts at bullying.
Adam L Silverman
@livewyre: We have our own serious socio-cultural problems. Our institutions are aging, sclerotic, and in need of serious TLC, which they’re not getting and, given how we’ve decided the Constitution should be interpreted, never going to get. We’re one election away from everything going really wrong really fast. Right now we have a small amount of breathing room. I’m not particularly optimistic that we won’t squander it.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: @livewyre: It is not and should not become one of those threads.
Ksmiami
arm Ukraine and send them planes. And fuck Switzerland, turn off their banking tech.
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: Okay, taking a breath and rethinking: tensions are high due to the latest atrocity. Folks are going to need to vent. Maybe even by swearing revenge; maybe even by swearing revenge in kind. It doesn’t have to come to anything in itself. Best for me to step off for the moment.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: IANAL, but the Swiss law seems pretty clear. Maybe there are some potentially useful exceptions.
FedLex.Admin.CH:
“This Swiss ammo has neglible value in comparison with the endohedral fullerenes that are used in the system – license please…”
Probably wouldn’t work, though.
Maybe Spain should say they need the shells at their embassy in Kyiv.
That probably wouldn’t work, either…
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: I have yet to see any reporting that those who have fled Russia since the beginning of conscription are fleeing because they oppose the re-invasion, Putin, or what Russia is doing. All of the reporting I’ve seen indicates they fled because they didn’t want to be conscripted.
Unfortunately, we have serious strategic concerns regarding the places they are fleeing to. And we can’t afford to assume that they are all anti-Putin, anti the current Russian government, and anti the re-invasion of Ukraine. We have to proceed as if they will basically serve as a fifth column where they have fled to. Doing anything else would be strategic malpractice. Unfortunately, from a national security perspective, they have to be considered to be guilty until they demonstrate that they are innocent. Not the other way around. We’re at war with Russia. Not because we want to be but because the Russian leadership and Russian media have been telling Russians and the rest of the world that Russia is at war with the US and NATO, and the US and NATO started it, since at least late 2011, if not Putin’s 2007 speech on this topic in Berlin. The longer we refuse to accept that reality, the more difficult things will continue to be for everyone.
Jay
@zhena gogolia:
@Bill Arnold:
Lost in Translation.
There are specific Russian’s being alluded to. People need to be more specific about which Russians are being mentioned.
You may remember the mass exodus of Military aged men, who’s exodus was not triggered by the war against Ukraine, as it had been going on for a while already, or the reversal of fortunes by the RUAF, but instead the planned and then release of Putin’s mass mobilization.
Or the other mass exodus of Russian “tourists” to Europe, triggered again, not by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the reversal of fortunes, the discovery of Russian war crimes and mass graves, as again, by then it was “old news”, but instead, the discussion in many Western Countries about limiting visa’s for Russians, to political refugees.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Even if there isn’t the prospect of a new wave of trained Russian conscripts, the best way to end the suffering & ruination is to end it as quickly as possible in Ukraine’s favor. Unfortunately, it appears extremely remote that Putin will want to negotiate a face saving path out of this war. & w/ way he has conducted this invasion, I imagine it will be increasingly difficult for Ukraine to agree to any settlement that ends this invasion, in away that saves Putin’s face, except unconditional restoration of pre-2014 internationally recognized borders.
I really do not see how weapons such as tanks or fighter heightens the risk of thermonuclear war by that much.It’s not like NATO is jointing the fight directly, nor is NATO proposing to give Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles that could reach Moscow. The US/EU should be able to coordinate (behind the scenes) w/ the likes of China, India & Türkiye to minimize the risk of accidental nuclear war, just like what was done recently when there was loose talk out of Moscow about nukes.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: We shouldn’t allow Ukrainians to absorb any more body blows. Fuck it. Destroy Putin’s army now.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Yep.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
OK. That’s coherent, and making vigorous interviews a part of the conscription-avoidance refugee process is necessary given that Russia is hostile (unlike say the US/Canada relationship during the Vietnam war). At least the young men are not allowing themselves to be Russian soldiers.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy:
@Adam L Silverman:
Adam Tooze is always worth reading. Of all the intellectuals/pontificators/analysts out there, he is pretty unique in his ability to drawing wildly different currents (across geography, time, disciplines) together to gain unique insights, present the insights in a way that is digestive to the laymen, & back it all up w/ data. Occasionally, given the way he prefers to do analysis, I think he overcomplicates things than necessary.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: As Jay indicated above: they didn’t vote with their feet when the re-invasion began, they didn’t vote with their feet when atrocities were being reported, they didn’t vote with their feet when the majority of the casualties in this war to consolidate the Ruskiy Mir/Russian world were ethnic minority/non-ethnic Russian Russian citizens. Rather, they fled when it suddenly because possible that they might have to go and fight themselves.
You can add cowardice to their potential failings.
Geminid nip
@Another Scott: I guess that’s why NATO members will just have to stop sourcing weapons from Switzerland, just like they’ll have to stop sourcing weapons from Israel. There was a similar problem with antitank weapons sold by Israel to NATO countries reported early in this war.
It’s not like these weapons are in a class by themselves, so it will be only Switzerland’s and Israel’s loss.
I’m not so sure I would say the same for South Korea because they have valuable production capacity for heavy weapons like tanks and howitzers. And while they will not supply these weapons to Ukraine, the K-2 main battletank they are shipping to Poland will free up Polish tanks that can be sent to Ukraine.
Reports are that Poland has ordered nearly 1000 K-2 tanks and 400 K-9 155mm self propelled howitzers from a Hyundai* affiliate. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported that a large order of155mm artillery shells ordered by the US from Korea is intended for Ukrainian use, although South Korean officials disclaim this publically.
*Many Americans know Hyundai as an automaker but the company has long been a major shipbuilder.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
I have been wondering for the last few months whether it would be possible to provide geofenced Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine that could be used to strike of the origins of the cruise missile strikes on Ukraine, e.g. the airbases and those ships that launch cruise missiles.
The problem is that Russia would not (and should not) believe that the range of the Tomahawks is in any way less than the maximum range. This is why artillery missiles with known limited range (e.g. 300 kilometers) are a better option for Ukrainian attacks on Russian cruse missile launch sites/airbases.. (The Ukrainian military industries could make longer range weapons, which concerns Russians, but that would be Ukrainian.)
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: Russia is a sick nation and needs to be defeated and reorganized. At this point, the world will be much better off without the country in its current form. Carve it up into smaller republics, defang it whatever ….
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: I agree with ZG that you’re using too broad a brush in the “worst of the worst” comment.
People have been leaving VVP’s Russia for years.
TheMoscowTimes (from October 2021):
Nuance doesn’t cost any extra.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
it’s not so much the “uniform”. On both sides, due to supply and cost, there is very little in the way of a standardized “uniform”. All sides use a motley mix of “issued’, “dark olive”, “dark blue”, NATO surplus, Russian and Soviet surplus, “National Camo” and of course, what ever pattern is on sale at Cabela’s and Bass Pro Shops.
Because of the adoption of “low visibility” name, rank and other identifiers, high vis National Flag patches and unit patches have been adopted by both sides, but those are only visible at the right angle in close, (200 feet or less), proximity.
To increase visibility, both sides have taken to identifying themselves with high visibility markers, from National Flags on vehicles to colour coded tape headbands and survey tape armbands. While the Ukrainians tend to mark themselves and their prisoners with Blue and Yellow, white is often used for night operations.
The Wagner orc’s killed were wearing Ukrainian passable uniforms, (stripped of Russian issue), Ukrainian flag patches, Ukrainian arm bands matching the day code, and most importantly, were claiming to be Ukrainian troops.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: I think you’re missing which group I’m talking about. I’m solely talking about the Russians that have fled since conscription started in the Fall.
Sally
@Adam L Silverman: I strongly agree with your assessment of the fleeing Russians. ZG ignores that Germans and Japanese were interned during WWII in many countries, even those who had been living as settled migrants for years before the war, with local family. It was feared that they could present a fifth column. All the evidence points to the fleeing Russians being Putin and war supporters, evidence which ZG also ignores. They demonstrate in favour of Putin and the war in Ukraine in various safe countries. In Germany there is evidence that they really are developing a fifth column and political/financial influence. They harass, and violently attack Ukrainian refugees, and deface Ukrainian art and flags. Their on line vitriol towards Ukrainians is sickening. They don’t flee and keep quiet, they flee and actively support the war and attack Ukrainians. They just don’t want to risk their lives fighting in their own decrepit army. I’m sure you could find the individual Russian who opposes the war, but they are wholly outnumbered by the multitudes who (violently) demonstrate in favour. And being opposed to Putin doesn’t mean opposition to the war. There are other nationalist figures in Russia who are just as brutal. I am also sure there are impoverished, illiterate Russian soldiers who have no idea who, where, or why they are forced to fight. I feel more empathy for them than the well to do emigrés, who fled after mobilisation, and not after the war commenced or atrocities reported. The well to do, who routinely denounce “The West” but love to live here!
Jay
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Ok, thanks for the reiteration.
I still think it’s needlessly harsh, but that’s my opinion.
Wikipedia:
If criminal penalties for dissent are increased, people who might be subject to those penalties may find it in their interest to leave when they didn’t earlier. Independent of, say, how much they opposed the war.
Depriving VVP of cannon fodder would seem to be a good thing.
FWIW.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Sally: During TFG’s Reign oF Error, I wrote my friends overseas at least twice, and specifically about a month before the 2020 election, warning them and imploring them that if we re-elected the bastard, that they must do everything they could to turn their governments and societies against America, because we would be a danger to the world. The idea that somehow if I were to flee overseas b/c of America turning fasicist, then I would stay silent even as my host country were endangered by America, is madness. If nothing else, it would be absolutely immoral.
zhena gogolia
@Another Scott: No, no, all Russians are evil. And it’s really quite easy to leave your home country. You can do it at the drop of a hat.
Ksmiami
@Sally: they should send them back to Russia… they are undeserving of the blessings of the west. Just a bunch of thugs.
Jay
Bill Arnold
@Sally:
To repeat, what is the evidence? Are there solid surveys? It is reasonable to suspect; it is wrong to put people in category “evil” based purely on ethnicity. IMO.
“Evil begins when you begin to treat people as things.”
― Terry Pratchett, I Shall Wear Midnight (textual context, an aside in a story.)
Ksmiami
@zhena gogolia: their support of Russian genocide against Ukraine is pretty appalling… tbh.
And I think Adam’s point is a good one- whether we want admit it or not, we are at war with Russia and should start acting like it.
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: It’s one of those threads again.
MagdaInBlack
@Omnes Omnibus: Ya, I’m not liking the turn that this is taking either.
Sally
@zhena gogolia: No one is saying all Russians are evil, especially Dr. Silverman. Not even any Russians are evil, as such. It’s not binary. And we are talking about the people who have left, not asking people to leave. The people who have left are, sometimes violently, demonstrating for the war, against Ukrainians, denouncing the west while living in safety here, and trying to influence western governments against support of Ukraine – eg in Germany.
Bill Arnold
@Sally:
Some of them are, yes. Some are not. The ones that are should IMO be deported back to Russia, but that is for host countries to decide.
Ksmiami
Sally
@Bill Arnold: Yes, there is evidence. There have been articles in the NYT, the WashPo, and long form articles on newly arrived Russians in Europe who complain about being ostracised by their new neighbours for support of the war.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
@MagdaInBlack:
other than the ususal cupcake, people are talking past each other and “broad brushing”,
Ksmiami
@Sally: they can go back to Russia then..
Bill Arnold
@Sally:
Those are anecdotes. If there are actual numerical surveys (I haven’t seen any but have not looked hard), then they could be treated as evidence.
Ruckus
@YY_Sima Qian:
“Unfortunately, it appears extremely remote that Putin will want to negotiate a face saving path out of this war. & w/ way he has conducted this invasion, I imagine it will be increasingly difficult for Ukraine to agree to any settlement that ends this invasion, in away that saves Putin’s face, except unconditional restoration of pre-2014 internationally recognized borders.”
I believe that you are correct. I believe vlad is using every bit of power he has and is fully committed to building his empire before he dies. He has basically unlimited power in Russia, he has a support group that has a lot of money, in a country that the average citizen has very little. He has captured Russia and thinks it is his duty and obligation to capture Ukraine, if for no other reason, they make him look bad.
OTOH I think all the high level money in Russia can’t buy the things they need to win but they also don’t give a damn if they destroy a majority of their citizens in trying.
Sally
@Bill Arnold: I can’t remember the details but there was one high profile case of a Russain woman in Europe who was violent towards Ukrainian refugees in her local area, and was outraged that the host country decided to revoke her visa.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
@Sally:
unfortunately, there is not a quick and “legal” mechanism for quickly identifying and deporting pro-War Russian migrants of convenience. There isn’t even a quick and easy way to identify and remove Russian agents.
Ksmiami
@Jay: But really it’s time to give Ukraine everything they need to end Russia’s operation. And I think it’s better to not be fearful of Putin, just determined.
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: I have seen no pro-Ukraine demonstrations by Russian emigre’s in Europe. Have you? Now, there are three possible rejoinders to this:
#1, #2 are despicable — you take refuge in a country that is endangered by your former home, and you don’t demonstrate against that former home? Despicable. #3: when you see other people from your former home demonstrating for the evil that has taken over there, you have a duty to counteract that.
These are people who are taking advantage of the harbor provided by these host countries. And the *best* construction one can put on their behaviour is that they’re free-riding. That’s the *best*.
Bill Arnold
@Sally:
Yep. I would happily escort such a person to the plane for deportation back to Russia.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
numerical surveys are “meaningless”, as it’s far too easy to lie.
The door was closed after the horse had left the barn.
NotoriousJRT
@Omnes Omnibus: it is that – started with sarcastic straw men and taunting for reply. I’ve not used the pie filter in over 20 years but I’ve considered it these past two nights.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman:
At the risk of diverting the discussion, I think it is hard to argue the US has not devoted enough resources to “guns” since the 1970s, between budgets for the DOD, maintenance of nukes in the DOE, the VA, & the off-regular budget provisions for wars. The issue is that DOD spending/procurement has become increasingly wasteful over that time, precisely because defense spending is always the bipartisan priority that cannot be jeopardized, & now it has become welfare for the defense industries. Given how the US has tried so hard to enmesh all of its allies & partners into its weapons programs & MIC in general over the past decades, & the influence of US MIC on the behavior of European defense contractors (through cross mergers & acquisitions), that waste & rapid inflation in procurement is now affecting the efficiency of European & Asian allies/partners’ defense spending, as well. This is before we get to all the wasteful spending on pointless wars, which the US has had a habit of dragging at least some of its allies into.
Looking forward, beyond the current war in Ukraine, NATO nations will need to restock/expand the weapons & munitions stockpiles that have been depleted by donations to Ukraine, & try to hit the 2% of GDP spending target. Meanwhile, there is an arms race across the Indo-/Asia Pacific. Japan is now aiming to double its defense spending to 2% of GDP. The US will want to go on a spending spree to dramatically increase the long range precision munitions stock to prepare for the possibility of war w/ China over Taiwan. China’s official defense spending is has been stable at ~ 1.7% of GDP, possibly up to 1.8 – 1.9% if items not in the official defense budget are included, so lower than the Western countries are spending or planning to spend. However, China spends more own internal security than on defense, & that is much higher than most (all?) Western countries. All of this is happening in an environment of slowing global economy, heightened global inflation (as countries across the world start to partially dismantle the intricate global supply chains in the name of “resiliency” & raise protectionist barriers), & rapidly aging populations across most of the Northern Hemisphere (which will place even greater strain on social welfare). Then there is dealing w/ the costs from AGW, which all of the spending on weapons & munitions (& their research) will do nothing to help mitigate against. Every country will face the prospect of guns (whether for national defense and/or internal security) crowding out butter. Meanwhile, for many countries, here is not that much room to further increase taxes.
These are tensions & dilemmas that cannot be wished away.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: apropos of https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a42491628/f-35-disaster-defense-spending/?src=socialflowTW
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
You think that’s despicable?
Ruben Bolling, 1991 Human Morality Made Simple
(I’m abnormal, maybe you too, and have a lot more Ys in the “should you help it” column.)
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: When you’re in a country that is both a target of Russia, and is kind enough to give you shelter, and you decide you have no duty to that host country? Yeah, that’s despicable.
Ruckus
@Adam L Silverman:
I absolutely agree that you could be 100% correct.
But.
How many of those people leaving the country could actually have any way to change the concepts/rational/investment of the upper level of the country of this war?
I’d say none.
The citizens of Russia have very little to do with any part of running it, other than suffering when the top what, 1% does whatever the hell it wants, including getting a pretty large segment of the bottom 99% dead for the ego and enrichment of that 1%.
We in this country and most others have a voice, often a vote and a way to at least somewhat control the government. No it doesn’t always work, but does it ever work in Russia? No. Much of the world has changed in the last 75 yrs, not necessarily changed to great but most of it is better than what life is for most of the population in Russia overall. Sure there is a segment that gains when the top 1% rakes it in, but there isn’t a large segment that does that. And yes it does appear that a lot of those trying to leave fell into that group that does benefit, at least to some degree. And at least there is a segment that is very unwilling to give their lives for that 1% or whatever % it is, which might even be smaller than 1%.
way2blue
I will never understand why the West is okay with playing catch-up rather than training & equiping the Ukrainins with the means to defend themselves—yesteday. Drives me up the wall when the U.S. for example says, ‘okay we’re fianally ready to provide XYZ weapon(s). But it will take a month to dust then off, then a month to train the Ukrainians and another month to get them to Poland. What?! Why not yesterday? Then punch the ‘now’ button when all the stars align. Eesh.
Chetan Murthy
@Ruckus: David Cross has this covered: https://youtu.be/S1wkqZIJOAQ?t=202
David Cross Is Starting To Regret His Vote for Trump…
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Concurrent R&D and production is difficult and can be expensive, but it’s the way we do cutting-edge military systems in the USA. There are advantages and disadvantages to the approach.
PopularMechanics.com – When the F-16 was America’s Problem Child.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
way2blue
@Chetan Murthy:
Illia asking the donors to his wounded warrior fund if it was okay to send some $$ to the young women sitting in the ruins of her home. That one hit hard.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: I hope that you are never put in the position to be judged by the standards that you are setting.
Mike in NC
From what I’ve read Switzerland was definitely not neutral during WW2 and generally was very much supportive of Nazi Germany.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: Do you really think I’d shoot some innocent person to save my life? Really?
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: Not what I wrote.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: If they’re so afraid of being identified by RU intelligence (and then their families being hurt back in RU) they could demonstrate with masks on. But they don’t do *shit* b/c they support the war.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: The negative examples are the Littoral Combatant Ship, the DDG-1000, the CVN-71, not to mention the costly abortions such as the CG-21. & that is just the USN surface fleet. The DOD procurement finally developed the good sense of choosing a Euro-frigate design for the Constellation class frigates, instead of developing a brand new design. However, DOD just could not take the off the shelf design & do minimal modifications to suit the US’ needs, to minimize R&D costs and program schedule. No, there has to be major redesigns. How could the US defense contractors get their gravy otherwise?
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: Again, not what I wrote.
YY_Sima Qian
@Mike in NC: Switzerland also did not have much of a choice, since it was surrounded by the Nazis & allies. However, in the laundering of stolen wealth from murdered Jews, the Swiss banks sure went above & beyond.
way2blue
@Gvg:
This is a single anecdote, but it chilled me»
A new neighbor threw a welcome party a few months back and making random conversation with someone there—I asked how he knew the hosts. Turned out he was Russian, but had immigrated to U.S. with his parents as a child. I said something bland, like ‘I don’t know how this war in Ukraine will end’. And he replied that he did. ‘Kill Zelenskyy’. As I sputtered, his wife showed up, complaining that her sister, back in Russia to shut down her business & lay off her employees might not be able to get a flight back to the U.S. since the borders were closed owing to the mobilization. Um. Chilling and hard to shake that conversation. If I’d had my wits about me I would have said something about how humiliating it must be for Russians to be bested by a neophyte president.
My sense is that ‘you can take the man out of Russia, but can’t take Russia out of the man’…
coin operated
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you. I understand why some people might say “not all Russians” but this comment describes the risk succinctly. In a country where Fox News would be too tame for the ruling class, we have to assume the brainwashing of their population is complete.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Isn’t there a pretty big excluded-middle you’re leaving out?
If I felt I had to flee my home country, I would probably keep a low profile in my new homeland for a long time – maybe years – no matter how I felt about the politics “back home”. To be sure I really understood my neighbors and the culture and all the unstated rules. Attending political protests is an uncommon event for natives – it’s a luxury that citizens have that immigrants with visas may (rightly or wrongly) do not feel they have.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: DDG-1000 ha!
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: In the middle of a *war* where my new host country is one of the targets? Really? Really? Or are you saying that Western Europe is not a target of Russia ?
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott:
And yet all over Europe we see Russian emigre’s doing just this — attending demonstrations — in support of *Russia*.
Jay
@way2blue:
the Ukrainian Military (as a whole), did not cover itself with Glory, (although there were many members and volenteers who did) in 2013/14. Some fled, switched sides, betrayed Ukraine. Some proved venal or incompetent in terms of modern war and limited war.
For every NATO training mission that went well, others were “not so much”. it was only around 2019/20 that the “universal” assessment of the Ukrainian Military amongst NATO partners was generally positive.
These experiences, along with an inflated assessment of Russian abilities, shaded initial assessments of Ukraine’s ability to withstand the Russian’s second invasion.
In addition, technical evaluations of the Ukrainian MIC were also not favorable. Years of effort had led to assessments of Ukraine’s MIC from being “mostly corrupt” to “somewhat corrupt”. A British Volenteer noted that they had, over the course of “indoc”, 3 different Ukrainian commanders, all for some reason, named Sergi. The first was nicknamed Sergi The Useless, (eg, sending the Volenteers out to the range for live fire in -20, then having them stand around for 3 hours before an NCO showed up with weapons and ammo. The second was Sergi The Silent. Effective, a good Officer whom the motley crew of Internationals were willing to follow to hell and back. The last, was Sergi the Corrupt, who staffed the Regiment with family, when they were deployed to the front, managed to have the 2 trucks fully loaded with modern NATO small and medium arms, along with some Javelins, “disappear” with out a trace from an 8 truck convoy, where there were security checkpoints every 5km, and of course, always picked the best house in the front to kip in, even if it was out of communication with the Regiment.
Add into this the logistics and mainteinence train required, let alone the training required, is why the Ukraine Military has only been receiving modern NATO arms gradually.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
again, broad brush. The number of pro-Russian protestors and protest in Europe are “tiny”. The assumption is that the protestors are Russian, when many are neo-Nazi’s, Metalheads, etc.
There are those who just want to be not in Russia and keep their heads down.
livewyre
I can’t tell if it’s just because of the horror and fatigue, but there’s something sour in the air that I don’t quite remember from other go-arounds. This is not supposed to be a “wipe them out” thread, and as far as I’m aware there’s not supposed to be such a thing here, but the anecdotes and generalizations aren’t being used to make a case in any other direction.
We’re skirting around the question of what should be done with everyone who comes from there as well as possibly everyone there. No distinction is being entertained between society and institution – including, apparently, our own. That’s not a case for consensus, but for authority. Someone has to give the orders to draw blood over all the objectors. Including that of the objectors, if necessary. That’s what bugs me. I’d rather stand for something other than “my kind can kill your kind faster”. Not that I have much of a choice.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
As far as Russian draft dodgers go, I follow one guy on You Tube, whose a bit of gamer and who for the most part seems to view the Russian Federation and the war as some kind of Boomer driven dark comedy and fled when it was clear they were going to suck him into their end of life crises. He says most of the conscription dodgers in up places like Georgia and Armenia, the locals are getting irritated at what the expats are doing to cost of living. The stuff he shows from Russian TV is insane, as in Star Ship Troopers “It’s a good day to die” musical numbers level crazy.
Anyway, the impression I get from this guy is pretty much the only people in Russia who are allowed to have an opinion are Putin’s circle, so telling what the average Russian thinks is almost impossible. But I would bet it likely centers around worrying about their jobs and they are likely indifferent to the whole war.
Omnes Omnibus
@livewyre: Some commenters are simply wearing down my willingness to engage in any discussion in these threads. I have always thought that it is important to presume good faith on the part of commenters here (actual trolls excepted). If that presumption isn’t reciprocated, then any actual discussion is impossible. We are approaching that point at times.
way2blue
@Jay:
This is helpful. Thanks. Still excrutiating though. Everytime I read about additional corrupt officials being weeded out of the Ukrainian government—is a relief.
YY_Sima Qian
@livewyre:
@Jay:
@Bill Arnold:
@Omnes Omnibus:
@zhena gogolia:
+1
No country is under any obligation to accept refugees from anywhere, other than what one might consider to be the moral obligation. I take Adam’s point about the risk of potential Fifth Columnists among Russian refugees causing more political chaos in EU countries, in light of Putin’s history of greyzone warfare. I don’t even think that countries such as the Baltic States turning away Russian emigrants is unjustified.
However, that is very different from claiming every Russian who is seeking to leave now is ipso facto a Putinist who will spread Putinism across the Western world, just because he/she is from Russia. Most are likely common people just trying to survive in the turbulent world, who may indeed hold some offensive believes (like most people do to one degree or another). We don’t need to assign moral attributes to them either as fleeing dissidents or Putinist agents under cover.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: Omnes, some of us have read far too many reports from all quarters: Eastern Europeans, historians, political scientists, who all confirm the same conclusion: that Russians have a different way of war from the West, and that even when not at war, their soldiers are predators wherever they are found. Including in Russia itself. We’ve noticed that none of this changes, no matter what century you look at.
Sometimes I wonder if some of you realize that Russia is waging an undeclared war on our country, and that they simply have no regard whatsoever for any laws of war, any laws whatsoever. That if the civil war of all against all arrives in this country, there won’t be any laws there, either. And that that war is one of Putin’s dearest goals.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
there are a variety of visa’s available to migrants, refugee, tourist, commercial, etc,…
one convenience for Putinista’s is that it’s a lot easier to get in, (was easier), than get kicked out. The Russian woman who had her visa revoked by Lithuania and was forcibly expelled, ran a restaurant, had incited violence against Ukrainian refugees for years, dissed both Ukraine and Lithuania on social media for years, and finally crossed the line by physical assaults
As I said earlier, we need to be specific in calling out “Russians”,…..
kalakal
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I mean we don’t need to assign moral attributes to them as a group, nor do we have the means to make an informed judgment. Individuals surely can be Putinist agents, Russian imperialists, or liberal dissidents.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: Yes, of course, the Russians are all brutes. And we know what to do with brutes, right? There are always appeals that “this war” is against an enemy that is uncivilized and that they don’t respect the laws of war as understood in that time. And because of that we need to throw the laws aside as well. After all, we can always get just re-establish the rules for fights against decent foes. Until they become brutes, and it all starts again. I don’t buy into that. This war is a fight that needs to happen, and we need to win. But we don’t win that way. What’s the fucking point?
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: Any of us can read anything that selectively confirms our desires. What reflects on us is what we do about them. If one’s after war of all against all, all it takes is making a teeny-tiny little exception to the principle of law for those kinds from over there who don’t look right.
And if one doesn’t acknowledge a distinction between “those kinds” and the historically contingent arrangement of ceremonial and legal constraints that they might happen to call a government, well… what else is there to be done? All that remains is to put someone in charge who’s strong enough to flip the switch. Better them than us.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus:
I believe I have *once* ranted about bombing Moscow (around when the Russians stated mass bombing of UA cities). But otherwise, no, I haven’t argued for that. Where do you get that from what I’ve written. What I have written, is that I support tourist visa bans (b/c refugees and those seeking asylum can still get thru), and that I support every sort of economic sanction without exception.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: Oh, and I support every effort to kill every non-surrendering Russian soldier on Ukraine’s land. Every effort without exception.
NotoriousJRT
@Omnes Omnibus: I think the presumption of good faith on the parts of just about all of those reading Adam’s daily updates is important; that very concept has been crossing my mind again and again while reading tonight’s thread. I can only speak for myself, but I am impressed by the wide range of knowledge among those commenting. Mine is admittedly on the shallow side. I don’t feel qualified to know whether / how much NATO and other countries are failing Ukraine. I do know that Russia is waging a total war on Ukraine and its people. I want the US to help Ukraine drive the Russian invaders out as quickly as can be done.
I benefit not just from Adam’s posts, but also from the contributions of knowledgeable commenters. But, gratuitous pot shots at different POV’s (like some in the earlier thread) don’t add to my understanding. I would really like to hear – maybe after the next Ramstein – what people feel the West is continuing to withhold from Ukraine and how those things would help reach the goal of driving Russia out of Ukraine. As time has passed and weapons systems have been added or committed, I would find it helpful to know what more realistically can/should be done. I know there will be differing opinions with that word, “realistically.”
Chetan Murthy
@NotoriousJRT: I’ve read that ATACMS are actually in short supply, and are no longer manufactured. But we have a ton of Tomahawks. Ukraine needs the ability to hit Russian military bases in Russia — the bases from which RU launch bombers that attack Ukrainian cities.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: I hope that you’ll step back a bit and look at (for want of a better term) the bigger picture. Your language sounds uncomfortably reminiscent to me of things we heard after 9/11.
War is horrific.
E.g. United States war crimes.
We want this war to end quickly. We want it to end with Ukraine victorious and with all of her lands restored and her security assured going forward. I don’t think we want to go down the road – again – of conflating the horrible actions of a government or a bunch of mercenaries or terrorists or religious fanatics or … with a people or a culture. It’s not helpful and gets in the way of seeing clearly.
My $0.02.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy:
I did not say that you specifically said that. I am saying that history shows that those arguments follow from the decision to call another nation a “nation of brutes.”* It is dangerous territory in which to play.
*Yes, I know that you did not use that exact phrase.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
people are talking past each other. Some poster’s arn’t specifically defining “which Russian’s” they are talking about, other”s are also taking any mention of Russian’s, even specific, as “all Russian’s”, and then we have the cupcake trying to incite,…..
I have a bunch of “bus” buddies. We all hang at the same bus stop, for the local, split up for the transfers. We are all “working class”, in the old school version of that, factory, construction, repair, better than minimum wage, but not much more. We are a mix of old and young, no middle aged, and a mix of Indiginous, “Canadian” and immigrant. We stand there, bs about our day, our jobs, our lives, drink a beer and for some, toke up, for the 20-25 minutes while we wait for the bus. 90% guys, 10% girls.
Girl on the bus one day, with a new baby, with the whole new baby smell. We were all cooing. Next stop, her husband got on. Desk jockey, Mgmt or Cubicle slave, as his clothes were way too nice. He had a Ukraine button on, just a simple round 3″ button, blue and yellow.
Couple stop later, some “Russian” shithead started yelling at him, started with “hohol” and went from there. We tried to intervene, vocally, to no effect, ( one would think that having over half a dozen “working” class “guys” yelling at you would give pause}, but no, a-hole had to take a couple swings.
He was not awake when he was hauled off the bus, and not at a bus stop. Yuri called him a Moscovite and spit on him, quite a few times before we got back on the bus. Yuri’s been here since 1984.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/insights/russia-repeating-its-brutal-history-ukraine
As I said, from every source, we find the same conclusion — that the Russian way of war is one of war crimes and nothing but. These aren’t a few bad apples: this is their method.
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: No matter how horrifying the enemy is, it doesn’t change what we have to do. It’s not unfair that they get to do atrocities and we don’t. The laws of war are fair and we maintain them for a reason – because they only weaken us if our definition of strength is intimidation and supremacy.
You haven’t stopped making a case against a nation as a whole, with no regard to institutional structure or minority power relations. That says something.
Mallard Filmore
@YY_Sima Qian:
Eh? What? Please!
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Also, the wikipedia pages for Soviet war crimes and 1991+ Russian war crimes are both long. (And a serious slog, emotionally.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_crimes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimes
Chetan Murthy
@livewyre: Where did I say we should be committing atrocities?
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: One could post similar things about Russia’s actions in many countries – Syria, Afghanistan, Chechnya, etc. I’m not disputing that Russia’s tactics in war (especially under VVP) are abhorrent. Yes, that is true. But I don’t read that as the extent of your argument.
I object to the tone (I don’t want to put words in your (or any other commenter’s) mouth) that Russia is somehow outside human norms and cannot be dealt with. I don’t believe that many / most / all those who flee are sleeper agents or unreconstructed Putinists or whatever. I don’t believe that Russia must be destroyed or conquered. I don’t believe we are doomed unless we do extreme violent action X.
The goal is to defeat VVP’s forces in Ukraine. Activating our lizard brain and arguing that the other guys are inhuman monsters is not helpful in thinking clearly about how to achieve our (political and military) goals.
I grieve for the senseless death and injuries and damage and destruction and crimes against Ukraine. VVP is a monster and must be defeated. But it needs to be done in a way that doesn’t feed the monsters on our side.
FWIW.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: You didn’t. If they’re not people, it doesn’t count as an atrocity. That’s how it works. Historically speaking.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: There are lots of things that come along with “Russia is a normal country”. Like: we trade with them as long as we’re not at war with them, even though all trade supports their economy, and thus their war. Like: we allow them to visit our countries, even though they use this to send agents to murder people in our lands. We allow Putin’s boyars to park their money all over our countries — they just use proxies (kids, wives, relatives, underlings) so we can’t block them. Other things too. All those things need to stop until Russia is stopped.
That’s why I point out that Russia is not a normal country: because we continue to treat it like one. Look at the way Prigozhin used our laws against us in his company’s trial back a few years ago. We should have simply expropriated his company as being controlled by an open adversary of our country. You wanna fuck with our elections, everything you own is forfeit.
Chetan Murthy
@livewyre: Oh please. They’re human beings. Despicable human beings, but still human. Don’t draw inferences where there’s no support to do so.
Traveller
@Jay:
yes Jay, that video really got to me also; it was the feral, cunning, unfairness of this act of deception that bothered me so. I have no answer but I was upset all day over it….a war crime certainly, but so isn’t all of war?
Bad juju…
Jay
@Traveller:
Nope. All wars are a tragedy, not all wars or conduct in wars are war crimes.
Aziz, light!
I have a close friend from Russia. She has been in the states for 16 years but the rest of her family is still back in Khabarovsk in Russia’s far east. I used to have nothing but admiration for her. For ten years she has been telling me how much she hates Russia and Putin and all the drunk asshole men back home and how she never wants to set foot there again. On the first day of the war she was cheerfully spouting Kremlin propaganda about to the need to denazify Ukraine and liberate Donbas and get rid of that fucking Zelensky. We haven’t ‘spoken since that day. I think it’s mostly true that you can’t take the Russian out of Russia.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Sound like he was drunk? But, some of our true selves come to the fore when we are inebriated & uninhibited.
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy:
Then we have a common point of reference.
I propose to square that designation of humanity with the truth of the brutality that has been committed, unprovoked, by a particular corner of it.
What passes for a government over there is a web of lies, to an extent that we over here can hardly comprehend. But even lies have limits. Government doesn’t come from the blood or from the soil, contrary to some… unconventional… interpretations. I won’t get into materialism or anything, but we probably agree that the conditions we find ourselves in do shape us to some extent. And the conditions in Russia happen to be a self-reinforcing edifice of abuse.
Toppling the edifice may be necessary to improving those conditions and bringing the art-and-language definition of society back from the brink of what we’re being dragged into along with it. Who has the ability and right to do that? Maybe that can’t be written until Ukraine is restored.
I can write right here that no one has the ability or right to destroy society. That’s the spiral I’m striving for us not to get dragged into, and that’s what the laws of war are for in the first place. Any tendency towards writing off an entire society is an act of destruction. And the excuses have been written since writing began. Just this once (evil society), they don’t count (not a real society), they’re beyond saving (no longer a society), etc. We almost know better.
livewyre
@livewyre: But not quite.
YY_Sima Qian
@livewyre: Couldn’t agree more!
Carlo Graziani
Got here late, and Christ, it is another one of those.
I don’t want to respond to any one comment, because I don’t want to make any of the existing fires worse. I am heartened by the amount of level-headed panic-resisting sanity still strongly in evidence here. Thanks, to you-know-who-you-are.
Adam, this is your doing. Your comments about emigrating Russians are blinkered, ignorant, inflammatory, pointless trash. You should be ashamed of yourself. As far as I can tell, you have personally never met or befriended a Russian person, and your remarks smack of moral panic. Four hundred thousand Putin supporters rushing abroad to line up in Fifth Columns? Are you out of your mind?
Quite aside from the imbecility of the proposition that these refugees are Putin envoys, the notion that they constitute the magnitude of threat that you claim that they do does not pass the giggle test. Moreover, what threat a very few of them may or may not present must be balanced against our humanity and compassion—yes, that’s right—for the large number of those refugees who are simply escaping one of the most despicable regimes on the planet, and who present no threat whatever to anyone. However that cost-benefit analysis is to be resolved, you definitely have the worst possible solution: the one that at a stroke denies the humanity and desperation of all those hundreds of thousands of people, and which, by turning all those civilians into pawns in the war, concurrently stains our own claims to valuing humanity more highly than the Russians do.
Your finger-wagging about civility in these threads is mere empty bloviating so long as you indulge in such outrageous and pointless provocations. Shame on you.
NobodySpecial
Eh, I have to wonder based on these conversations if people who move to my blue state from deep red ones are actually Trumpists here as a fifth column.
livewyre
@Carlo Graziani: I’m inclined to be generous and presume that horror makes fools of us all. It doesn’t even seem relevant whether the provocation was itself provoked. Either way the result is the same.
Like I was getting at earlier on – if one has given up on consensus, then it’s just a matter of who gives the order. Justification comes afterward; means and ends, written by the winners, and so on.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Carlo, Adam gave you a chain of reasoning to reach his conclusion. Merely hyperventilating doesn’t disprove. And the people who ought to know — the governments and citizens of the frontline CEE states — have been making this same point for many months now.
Chetan Murthy
@livewyre: @Carlo Graziani: I’m surprised at you guys. Both of you seem to think that if someone concludes that a society or nation is fundamentally corrupt, then that someone can decide to use genocidal force against them? That merely declaring them despicable is enough to authorize dehumanizing them? B/c, y’know, it’s not, and that’s not even a hard call. There’s a difference between *diagnosis* and *treatment*. And some treatments are ipso facto forbidden, regardless of the diagnosis. Nobody is talking about dropping bombs on apartment buildings in Belgorod, and for damn sure AFU isn’t stupid enoough or immoral enough to do that.
Notwithstanding, accurate diagnosis is important, b/c there may be other treatments that are permitted, but that we don’t employ under less-dire circumstances. Like closing borders to “tourists”. Treating relatives of oligarchs the same as those oligarchs. Etc.
ian
I have 2 cents I would like to share.
1 Several people in this comment thread have pointed out that there is precedence for locking up “fifth columnists” in ww2 regarding the Japanese.
This was a bad thing. We do not need to repeat the mistakes of the past. Way better ways to police populations than assuming all are guilty and metering out collective punishment.
2 I will be the first to agree that those fleeing the draft in Russia are doing so out of cowardice and self interest. They are not the ‘worst of the worst’. The worst are those doing the war crimes. Even if these Russians couldn’t care less about Ukrainians or ending the war, by not being mobilized (and fleeing the country so not being part of the tax and industrial base) they are making Russia’s overall position weaker.
3 Does any of this actually help Ukraine, or is this whole exercise being conducted serve to make people feel superior to others?
Chetan Murthy
@ian: Those were American citizens of Japanese descent. That’s got nothing to do with Russian tourists coming from an aggressor country literally at the moment they were about to be at risk of conscription and not one minute earlier.
Chetan Murthy
@ian:
Citizens of the CEE countries and some of their governments are on-record as believing that these “tourists” present a danger to the CEE countries, and it’s well-documented that some of these tourists have endangered the lives of Ukrainian refugees.
Traveller
Carlo: I Think you are being a little harsh on Adam. The question of Russian speakers being 5th columnist…has a lot of current history and worry about it…long before February 24, 2022, all of the Baltic states were walking on eggshells regarding their Russian population, mostly in their eastern borderlands, but also the cities…to what degree and when would they rise up in riot and rebellion to give Russia a glad.ful excuse to to intervene if that country was lucky, or invade if not so lucky, see Georgia and Eastern Ukraine.
This has been a real concern for many states bordering on…(oh, let me have some fun)…bordering on the Russian Empire. I believe these states will be safe now, and even many of the Stan’s that are moving warily away from a centralized Russia.
Lastly, we can never really know where our friends, or, if we are a country, where our population, stands on these kind of delicate questions. e.g. where I was a guest at a very lovely Thanksgiving dinner this year…and where I had been minorly involved with the the hostess…siting at the head of the table, me sitting to her right, she said, “Putin should just plow all those Ukrainians into the ground…”I mean these moments are shocking…fortunately her children were not present yet so I did not have to bite my tongue, (I am not a complete bastard,embarrassing a woman in front of her children)…but people were still surprised that I called her out for being…”Now our Genocidal Hostess…you can’t believe what you are saying…or do you? Expound…” I said, smiling.
There was a deathly pall in the room but so what…
Tough times are tough….Best Wishes,
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: What gives me pause about the case you’re making in particular is the lack of any apparent analytical model for what the fundamental corruption consists of or where it resides, other than “them”.
Fundamental is fundamental, after all. This isn’t uncovered ground. Laden, one might say. It doesn’t matter where one promises to stop.
ETA: Anyone can say, “I’m better than that.” The point of the law is not to have to take their word for it.
ian
@Chetan Murthy: Than those people who attacked Ukrainians in CEE countries should be arrested, tried for their crimes, and expelled from those countries if proved guilty.
The Japanese internment also included Japanese citizens who were present in the U.S. The reason I bring it up is because people in this thread were advocating this as a precedence for treating entire groups as guilty until proven innocent. I have serious problems with this concept.
lowtechcyclist
Good Lord, what a thread.
Irrespective of the qualities of individual Russians, I fail to understand why, in the eyes and policies of Western states, Russia as a nation hasn’t been made a pariah state. Its conduct both in starting this war, in the way it conducts it, and in the behavior by individual soldiers that it condones and tacitly encourages, is appallingly far beyond anything like civilized norms.
It is time for the West to stop selling stuff to Russia, and to the extent they can wean themselves off of the need to buy fuel from Russia, stop buying stuff from Russia as well.
The United States doesn’t need Russian oil or gas. It could go the full nine yards in cutting off economic relations with Russia. With Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, it’s unlikely that the following could be passed, but this is what I’d propose that Congress pass:
“The United States of America is not in a state of war with the Russian Federation, nor does it anticipate being so in the near future. However, by its conduct in its wars in Ukraine, Syria, and other places, and by the fact of those wars themselves, Russia has demonstrated itself to be an enemy of Western civilization in its entirety, and has put itself in a position of enmity to the United States of America.
“Therefore, no more than sixty days after the passage of this resolution, all commercial traffic between the Russian Federation and (a) citizens and residents of the United States, and (b) businesses incorporated and/or located in the United States, must cease.
“After that date, commercial traffic with persons or businesses located within the boundaries of the Russian Federation, or incorporated or with their primary place of business or ownership there, will be regarded as giving aid and comfort to an enemy, in the meaning of Article III, Section 3 of the Constitution of the United States.
“This resolution also authorizes the Executive Branch to identify intermediary businesses that purchase United States products in order to pass them on to the Russian Federation, and to inform the public via the Federal Register of the names of such businesses that will be treated as Russian businesses for the purpose of this resolution.”
In other words, fucking cut Russia off economically from the United States. No U.S. businesses, whether it’s computer chip manufacturers or Domino’s Pizza, should be selling stuff to Russia. That should come to an end, and that end should be enforced by U.S. law and policy. Russia should be a pariah state, and this is one thing it should mean for Russia to be a pariah state.
bjacques
Dead thread, but a few observations:
As far as I can tell, Russian emigrés fleeing the war or Putin’s continued shittification of their country are overall proving no better or worse than other (or even previous Russian emigrés).
I’d like to see these reports, especially footage, of Russian emigrés behaving badly. Here I’ve only read the same stories about Russians threatening and abusing Ukrainians and pro-war demonstrations. I don’t doubt them, but I wonder how widespread they are. (I expect animus from some Russians because they blame Ukraine for their difficulties, because people can be real assholes. Dutch people had the same attitude toward the few Jews who returned after the war.) If there are many examples, please point me to them. Personally, I’ve not seen or read about any such incidents here in the Netherlands.
Keeping your head down is perfectly natural in a new country, especially if you’re going to gravitate towards the (pre-war) emigré community in finding your feet, and not knowing how long the war will last, or what you can salvage from back home. A demonstration against America’s war against Iran (under President DeSantis or Hawley)—not a “both-sides” peace demo—is bravery bordering foolhardiness, when prowar Americans in the country will happily shop you to the FBI and you’ll be pressed into spying for them, because of relatives back home. Filming abuse or a prowar demonstration and uploading it to social media, especially Musk’s Twitter, your opsec had better be good doing both of those things. An added wrinkle, at least here in the Netherlands, is that you risk violating privacy laws if you film a demonstration and the cops think you’re trying to identify individual protesters or leaders.
Sorry, but anyone hotly declaring their bravery in advance is kidding themselves, and demanding it of others is being unfair, as history shows exactly what happened to the few who did. (“Vanity…that’s my favorite sin!” — Al Pacino, “The Devil’s Advocate”) I *hope* I’ll do the right thing if the situation arises, and that’s all I can honestly say about myself. I hold that doubt as a shield and moral compass hope it works as either, maybe both.
But internal ministries should take devote to fifth columnists all the attention and force that the limitations of democracy and the headwinds of authoritarian sympathies of police culture allow, against a country that’s definitely hostile but not one at which they are formally at war. And the focus should be squarely on those elites still profiting in Russia and anyone politicking to Russia’s benefit (the doctrine of “Keep your head, down, fine, but stay the fuck out of our politics”.) Squeeze those people further. Second, vigorously investigate these harassment incidents and mercilessly revoke visas of the perpetrators—take the concept of sanctuary seriously. There’s a lot these countries can do at both ends of the emigré spectrum without having to turn the 1948 Universal Declaration Of Human Rights into a suicide pact.
Finally, some anecdata about a few Russians currently and formerly in my own life. In my office I work with Russians and Ukrainians, all good people. I can’t imagine how they manage to remain friends with each other, but as far as I know they do. Our line of work has been directly affected by Russia’s 2014 invasion and the current war, but luckily the membership that supports us has approved for now solutions we have put in place.
The missus and I had another couple of Russians in our lives. I’m pretty sure one holds Russia blameless for the war, but I haven’t heard from her in more than a year, because, during the pandemic, she was a COVID hoaxer and later anti-vax. Two years ago (pre-vaccine), she proudly took her daughter to St. Pete to see the Mariinsky Ballet, posting photos to Facebook of a full house, nary a mask to be seen, and praised Putin’s denial of the problem as a success. I didn’t block her, but I consistently called her out on her bullshit, and now she seems to have disappeared. The other Russian I know, whose father was Indonesian and went to Patrice Lumumba University during the Cold War (maybe having fled the 1965 slaughter), supports Ukraine and properly considers the war illegal.
Chris Johnson
The part of this that worries me is the manufacturing consent part along with known tactics/strategies from Putin.
See, the deal is that on the Russian side, Putin is of course trying hard to turn all Russians into nationalistic monsters ready to do anything to resist the evils of NATO and the rest of the world. And if it just stopped there that would be pretty bad. But it doesn’t stop there, because Putin’s people work REALLY HARD everywhere else in the world to manufacture the desired attitudes there too.
And the goal with that is to make everyone else HATE Russia and turn them into the ideal enemy for Russians to legitimately hate.
It’s only a good plan if your metric is ‘do you hold onto power and have people welded to your ideology inside your own country’, without concern for whether you might lose or end the world. Putin always supports opposing sides to foster chaos politics. Right now that means actively trying to shake NATO from ‘civilized’ attitudes and turn them into the exact monster he is telling Russian people exists. And it means simultaneously trying to get Americans to hate and turn against Ukranians, and getting Americans to hate RUSSIANS in order to have them convincingly play the baddie.
And plenty of people in this thread play right along with it.
My own tactic for de-generalizing things is Kvadrat: a documentary on a Russian DJ traveling around playing sets in various countries. I legitimately think Russian folks make some of the best dubtechno, and there’s youtube channels I follow that post a lot of great music. If any of them did political rants they’d be dead to me, but they don’t. I hang onto that to stop getting genocidal.
Humans gotta human, and unfortunately that’s a really dark statement. I’m not sure life on earth is going to survive Putin’s discovery of weaponizing humanity against itself. There are just too many ways for humanity to tear itself apart. It can be profoundly discouraging.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: It seems like much of what you propose has already been done, at least de jure but maybe not de facto.
Enforcement needs to be tightened but I think the US is trying harder. One problem is that Russia and especially Iran, whose supply of electronic components we are also trying to cut off because they use them in drones, are practiced sanctions evaders.
This problem is discussed in a December 28 NYT article,, “US major effort tochoke Iranian drone program, end supply to Russia.” The article cites reporting by the Conflict Armaments Group saying that Iranian drones contain electronic components produced in the US, Europe and Asia.
The doggone Times paywalled that article, but I could find the gist of it in the Times of Israel. I expect other media sites reported on it as well.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
There’s still a lot of American companies on the list of companies still doing business in Russia.
If it were up to me, there would be none by the time spring rolls around. These businesses have had nearly a year to see just who they’re dealing with.
I realize our sanctions are nontrivial, but they are far from complete. (Hence the continual need for further rounds of sanctions.) We did not do this sort of business with Nazi Germany during WWII, and we should not do this sort of business with Russia now.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: That gets back to the distinction between “war” and whatever the legal and political status between the USA and VVP’s Russia, doesn’t it? Neither has formally declared “war” on the other. Crossing that legal line would be a first in the history of nuclear powers and shouldn’t be lightly dismissed.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: One more general problem is that so many countries do not participate in the Russian sanction regime. The US has decided not to put maximum public pressure on them; I never see US officials castigating Mexico for not joining the sanctions regime, for example. I think instead we work behind the scenes to persuade them not to supply strategic materials, especially electronic components being routed to Russia and Iran.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy seems to take a similarly pragmatic approach, at least towards Turkiye. He often speaks of talks with President Erdogan he’s recently held, but I’ve never see him gripe about how Turkiye is one of two NATO countries that have not sanctioned Russia, and even seems to help Russia some with sanctions evasion. I imagine Mr. Zelenskyy raises this with Erdogan, but he gets critical support from Turkiye, especially on the Black Sea grain shipments, and Zelenskyy is taking what he can get for now. It’s not like public hectoring will move the stubborn Erdogan anyway.
Ukraine and Turkiye are trading partners and still cooperate in some military areas. The Black Sea grain shipments are one example; Turkiye’s naval and air power were a factor Putin could not ignore, as was Erdogan’s stubborness. When Russia suspended grain shipment Turkiye quickly organized a fresh convoy and Russia backed down
Turkiye is also building warships for Ukraine. Mrs. Zelenskaya and Ukraine’s navy chief attended the christening of a frigate in early October, at an Istanbul shipyard. The warship is scheduled for delivery in 2034, after fitting out and sea trials. Ukraine’s Defense Minister has announced that the Hetman Ivan Mazepa‘s home port will be Sevastopol.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: This pretty much scores a bullseye on the moral obtuseness of the argument about Russian emigration. The point is not about who they are; the point is about who we are.
Are we really the kinds of people who give in to irrational panic and bar the door to hundreds of thousands fleeing an evil, corrupt regime because a few of them might be plants?
Or, worse, are we the sort of people who are willing to turn those civilian refugees into pawns in the war, calculating that forcing them to remain in Russia increses pressure on the regime, and cynically salving our consciences with coarse pseudo-sociology that classifies them as morally defective draft dodgers, unworthy of our compassion?
The cognitive dissonance of someone who decries Wagner tactics of feeding newbs to killing zones by the thousands, while demanding that those same newbs face similar peril to march out in the street and destroy the regime, shows up the shallowness and cynicism of the latter argument.
I doubt very much that most of our local group “sociologists” would, had they been born in Russia, be out on the streets of Ekaterinburg or Pskov risking their lives to challenge the regime. I have considerable doubt that many would be doing so if they were transported there now, with the benefit of their present Westernized consciences, but burdened with a Russian Federation citizenship. So the lecturing on the moral failings of draft dodgers strikes me as merely an updated version of the perennial US phenomenon of the Chicken Hawk, wherein moral lectures about character and political duty of a group of people expected to put themselves at risk are issued by people who are in no danger whatever from those same risks and have never been so, and appear to have made no intellectual effort to grasp, or empathise with, the position of the targets of their lectures.
Eastern European nations are probably more moved to circumscribe emigration by panic than by cynicism, although even that is a poor excuse. But we have no excuse at all. This argument shames us and diminishes us. It’s an example of attempting to defend our country and our democracy by attacking the very values and principles that make them worth defending in the first place.
“Never Again” my ass. Tell that to the Nisei.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott:
I can’t imagine the circumstances that would cause us to cross it at all. Which is why I led off with “The United States of America is not in a state of war with the Russian Federation, nor does it anticipate being so in the near future.” Obviously in this wilderland where Russia is clearly a hostile power, but we cannot under any circumstances short of “So long Mom, I’m off to drop the bomb” declare war on Russia, we need some gradations. This would be one where we say (a) they’re an enemy of Western civilization broadly, and therefore an enemy of all that we stand for, (b) we’re not at war with them and have no intention of firing so much as a single bullet in their direction, but (c) this is serious enough that we’re cutting off all trade and commerce with them, and bringing down the hammer on anyone on our side who tries to evade that.
Obviously, this is a pretty damn serious gradation, but IMHO the circumstances warrant it. While it doesn’t have much effect on us that Sbarro’s Pizza is doing business as usual in Moscow, we don’t want them to be able to buy products and assistance from, say, Titan International. So let’s just drop an, erm, iron curtain between us and them, only this time Ukraine, the Baltics, and the Warsaw Pact countries are on this side of the curtain. We were able to live with that state for four and a half decades with the Soviet bloc, so this ain’t war anymore than that was. Call it a ‘cold war’ if ya wanna, no harm in recycling the old terms.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
I’m fine with that. There’s a considerable gap between what we can do ourselves, and what we can expect our NATO allies and other allied nations to do. But maybe our taking this step first will move at least some other nations to join us. I realize that Germany and a number of other nations are still dependent on Russian natural gas; they aren’t in a position to take this stand. We’ve got diplomats to tell them we’re aware they’re in a different situation. And other countries have other reasons of their own. The world is like that.
lowtechcyclist
@bjacques:
To quote the Bosstones:I’m not a coward, I’ve just never been tested
I’d like to think that if I was I would pass
Look at the tested and think “There but for the grace go I”
Might be a coward, I’m afraid of what I might find out
(Had this song running through my head since last February, might as well use it!)
Carlo Graziani
OK, I wrote two rather angry comments, and I don’t want to leave matters there, because I’m trying not to be that guy.
I am concerned and worried about this place, because I see signs that the brutality of the war, together with our daily discussion of war, is deadening our collective capacity for human empathy. I think that one of the most difficult things that one can do is to concern oneself with these kinds of matters on a daily basis while still fending off that corrosion. It is the easiest thing in the world to devalue the humanity of one’s wartime enemies, but down that road lie actions that we always feel shame about later.
That’s what I wish we could be less complacent about. It’s a coarsening of the soul that can catch anyone, if one’s vigilance fails. If you don’t think you could be one of those historical case studies in war-driven panic and mistreatment of Other, that exactly when you are in greatest danger.
But it’s the opposite of how I think of this place, and of you all.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Carlo Graziani: I rarely have anything to say on these threads but I read them frequently. Thank you and thanks, Adam, for all your work here.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
The Nisei were *Americans*, not fucking Russians.
Chetan Murthy
via dKos: https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/01/15/7384969/
Zelensky also addressed the Russians in Russian.
Direct speech : “I want to say to all those in Russia and from Russia who even now could not utter even a few words of condemnation of this terror, although they see and know everything perfectly. Your cowardly silence, an attempt to wait out what is happening, will only end with the fact that one day these same terrorists will come for you too. Evil is very sensitive to cowardice, evil always remembers those who are afraid of it and try to bargain. And when it comes for you, there will be no one to protect you.”
Chetan Murthy
from a russian emigre in yerevan: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/12/wounded-russian-soldiers-returned-to-front-without-proper-treatment-agentstvo-a79932
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Maybe January 19 will be informative. Or maybe not.
The headline slogan is “To remember is to fight” which commemorates the assassination of Markelov and Baburova.
I don’t know enough about the organizers and I, personally, have very mixed feelings about groups like A.N.S.W.E.R. who were involved with all kinds of protests which usually ended up being a grab-bag of issues and little in the way of a coherent message. I get a similar vibe from that story (and similar ones I’ve seen). Maybe people in Berlin will feel the same way about this call to protest. Maybe not. Dunno.
I’m not going to condemn expats in Berlin (or elsewhere) if they don’t turn out.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.