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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 378: The Cost

War for Ukraine Day 378: The Cost

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Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)

Ukrainians are strong when they take care of each other, and free when they defend themselves – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

10 March 2023 – 20:24

The meeting of the Staff of Supreme Commander-in-Chief has just ended.

The commander-in-chief, commanders of the task forces reported on the situation on the front line, generally in the defense of the state. East and south, border. Bakhmut and our opportunities to strengthen there. Our responses to terrorist attacks. Protection of Kherson and communities of Dnipropetrovsk region. Chernihiv region, Sumy region. Our ammunition and supply needs.

Today, I spoke about the provision of Ukrainian soldiers and, in general, the support of our state in defense against Russian aggression during international negotiations.

The Prime Minister of Finland, a country that quite actively supports us, visited Kyiv. I thanked him for the aid packages already provided, we discussed new opportunities to strengthen our defense, increase pressure on Russia – a new defense package for Ukraine, already the 14th.

We also talked about cooperation in the European Union structures, and supporting our initiatives to punish Russian murderers.

Today, I also met with the Minister of Defense of Norway. In general, we have achieved an extremely strong relationship with Norway in many areas. This also concerns weapons: thanks to Norway, we strengthened our air defense, artillery, and other types of troops. Norway also launched a long-term budget support program for Ukraine – $7 billion for five years – which can and should become an example for our other partners.

We discussed additional steps that we can take together with Norway to make this spring a success both for Ukrainian defense and for the prospects of pan-European security.

By the way, we are starting to communicate with Norway about the possibilities of a training mission for our pilots.

I talked today with representatives of the American political community – senators, experts – at the site of the American Enterprise Institute. It is one of the strong American think tanks – institutions involved in policy-making.

I briefed on the current situation, our possibilities to break Russian aggression and return security to Ukraine. I thanked America for its unwavering and principled support, and the leadership that can bring our victory much closer.

Today, I would like to pay particular attention to our soldiers who are defending Ukraine in Donetsk region. Every day they give good reasons for gratitude, give good results for Ukraine. Marines of the 35th and 36th separate marine brigades, the 55th separate artillery brigade, paratroopers of the 79th brigade… Thank you, soldiers! And separately, I would like to thank today the soldiers of the Defense Intelligence Shaman unit – for Bakhmut, for their strong participation in the defense of the city.

Thank you to the soldiers of the 44th separate artillery brigade, who are fighting near Zaporizhzhia. Skillfully destroy enemy positions and equipment. Thank you guys for this!

Today, I signed another decree on honoring our soldiers with state awards. In particular, soldiers of the 24th separate assault battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Today, I had the honor of handing “Da Vinci” Dmytro Kotsiubailo his Cross of Military Merit to his mother. Farewell to Dmytro took place today. And I thank everyone who came to the farewell ceremony for “Da Vinci.” To everyone who would like to come, but is currently at the front, in the army, in the hospital. It is very important.

It is important that Ukraine honors its heroes and demonstrates to the world what kind of people give their lives for the freedom of our people and the whole of Europe. I’m grateful to everyone. Remember Dmytro today, please remember all those who were taken from us by this war – since February 24, since 2014. Eternal memory to the heroes!

And one more. All day I receive reports about the restoration of our energy facilities and networks after the Russian terrorist attack.

Kharkiv – many subscribers are still disconnected, the city has communication problems. It was possible to provide electricity to critical infrastructure, all services are working to restore the energy supply to consumers. Truly heroic efforts of our energy workers and repair crews.

Kharkiv region – as of evening, electricity supply has been restored to most consumers.

It is still not easy in Zhytomyr: although the system has generally been balanced, there may still be outages. Energy workers are working.

Zaporizhzhia – everything is being done to protect people and the city’s energy system.

Kyiv – heating networks are being restored.

I thank everyone who is involved in these works, thank everyone who helps!

Ukrainians are strong when they take care of each other. Ukrainians are free when they defend themselves.

Glory to our beautiful people!

In memory of our soldiers who gave their lives for our country!

Glory to Ukraine!

More of the cost:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

Well this is going to be interesting:

Four days ago the Institute for the Study of War posted that Ukraine was undertaking a tactical retreat from Bakhmut despite Ukraine’s National Command Authority and the theater commander making it clear no such thing was taking place. The theater commander, Colonel General Syrsky, has repeatedly visiting his forces contesting for Bakhmut over the past week to ten days. Yesterday the ISW posted that Wagner has taken a tactical pause in its attempt to take Bakhmut despite Wagner initiating dozens of attacks. Today the ISW posted that even if Russian forces could take Bakhmut, Russia would be unable to generate operational effects from doing so.

This concludes the lesson of why I never use anything from the Institute for the Study of War.

Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND, has done an interesting assessment of Russian missile use. First tweet in the thread below followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Before I do: there are Ukrainian civilians who suffering and dying from these strikes. I’ve said before, Ukraine needs sustained air defense systems and interceptor missiles and other support, as there is an effort underway to exhaust Ukrainian SAMs over time.Image
I haven’t made my way through all strikes since 2022, so far just 2023 today. I’ve compiled launch points where known, missile type, and interception rates. Sources for now are UAF and western media. I will catalogue Russian info next. /2 
(Speaking of interception rates, @konrad_muzyka has great information on this, if you are not already subscribing to the UCM , I recommend it!) /3 
The attack this week (81 missiles) was not the largest in 2023 – the largest was one month ago with 105 total. This attack was different in terms of type of systems used, launch locations, variation of launchers and missile trajectories, making it complex to defend against. /4 
It featured 6 Kinzhal hypersonic ALBMs – the largest salvo so far of them in the war and the largest recorded for combat use of this missile. Russia doesn’t have large numbers of this system, rumored in the dozens. More on that: /5 washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/…
Ukrainian officials say they cannot intercept Kinzhal, Kh-22 ASCMs and S-300 (SA-20) air defense missiles repurposed for land attack roles. too fast, trajectory is difficult. They claim Russia has fired 210 Kh-22 since 2022, none of them intercepted. /6 
The Kh-22 (AS-4) Soviet-era ASCM was designed to be an aircraft carrier killer. It is not very precise, but it is supersonic. /7

From the info that I have, there is no set pattern to the makeup of the strike packages this year. Many are ASCMs or SAMs purposed for land-attack roles. A few reasons for this in no particular order: experimentation to see what works, stockpile issues, launcher readiness. /8Image
Note, no SS-26/SSC-7 in quite some time, probably as inventory is low. They are using different combinations of balloons, Shaheds, timing waves of missiles, shifting launch locations, and so on, to reduce interception rates. /8 
Not depicted in the chart – each strike originates from slightly different locations. They haven’t launched much from Belarus in the last month, according to Ukrainian officials. It’s a mix from Belgorod, Caspian+ Black Sea, Rostov, Kursk, and occupied Zaporizhzhia. /9 
While the Russians likely know the limitations and strengths of Ukraine’s soviet/Russian origin SAMs, they are likely trying to probe weaknesses in NASAMS or IRIS-T performance. /10 
Back in November, NASAMs had a 100% success rate according to SECDEF Austin. /11

As for overall targets – most of these strikes are continuing to target the power grid, an oil refinery, defense industrial targets – what is called “critical infrastructure” in Russian mil strategy. However, missiles are striking residential buildings. /12 
Ukraine is repairing their grid. The strikes are lethal, yet they backfire too, as Ukrainians are more resolved against Russia with each wave. Nor do I see how they directly support the Donbas effort/13 
That being said, I do worry that this wears down Ukrainian SAM inventory; I don’t know how many interceptors they expend for each Russian missile launched. /14 
Is Russia following their CONOPs for PGMs? Yes and no. On one hand there is an adherence to striking critical infrastructure, but on the other hand they not found lasting effects from this approach and haven’t switched to a fundamentally different strategy. /15 
If interested, we have a new report on the subject. We discuss aspects of Russian PGM targeting and launch capacity by platform. It was written in 2021 (prewar), but only recently approved for public release. /16Image
As we noted then (but were unable to discuss here until approved) there was a large gap between their theory and the force, to achieve effects with PGMs, EW, and counterspace capabilities. Led by Clint Reach w/contributions from me and a great team.

Final thought – Russia is facing PGM inventory issues and is experimenting with what it has left. These attacks strain Ukrainian air defenses and this is a problem over time. The attacks come every few weeks. thanks for reading/end. 

This whole a group of private Ukrainian operators drove over 5,000 lbs of explosives from Poland to Germany and then packed it plus all the diving gear into a 45 to 50 foot sailboat and then dove on the deepest part of the NordStream pipelines, which would’ve required a decompression chamber, and none of these highest of high speed and lowest of low drag operators thought to wipe the yacht down for explosive residue reporting is now completely out of hand.

Alexander has a full write up with lots of AIS imagery at his substack showing why this reporting doesn’t add up. You can find that at this link.

He’s also got an update thread:

Each but of this reporting just creates more questions and gaps in the information being fed to the reporters. Additionally, given what we’ve seen over the past six months about how Russia has compromised a number of German intelligence and security personnel, as well as Germany’s investigations into and arrests of neo-fascist German extremists in the military and law enforcement suggests we should take anything German intel says with a very large grain of salt.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron:

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Контент на мільйон?😂 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – 🌿Holly🌿

The caption machine translates as:

Content for a million? 😂 #песпатрон

Open thread!

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    50Comments

    1. 1.

      Alison Rose

      That tweet from Patron made me smile. I hope Ms Sanna’s people saw it and will work to rectify the situation with all due speed!

      United24 has an intercepted and translated call from a russian orc to a relative. Apparently he got fired on by one of his own who was drunk. They’d also been hit by their own helicopters and tanks. Brilliant fighters they got there. The work of a master strategist strikes again!

      The NordStream stuff feels like a Tom Clancy book that his editor rejected because it sounds too bananas.

      Thank you as always, Adam.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Anonymous At Work

      Oliver is focusing on opportunity, both UA and RU had the means, but what’s the motive of the NORD-2 bombing?  I always thought it was an excuse to shut off oil exports to EU to drive up prices so suddenly and sharply as to force the EU to back off.  Pro-Putinists are claiming that UA had a better motive in disrupting Russian export capabilities.

      Thoughts?

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Another Scott

      @Anonymous At Work:

      I think the story at the Substack makes the most sense:

      I theorize that the initial Nord Stream 2 rupture was an accident, potentially the result poor workmanship by the Akademik Cherskiy due to an inadequate vessel and inexperienced crew.

      Once this pipe had ruptured, the remaining pipes would probably be inspected to ensure that there was no risk of further leaks. This process would have revealed the explosives planted on the Nord Stream 1 pipes. Due to this the plan to potentially destroy Nord Stream 1 in the future was accelerated and the explosives were detonated 17 hours after the initial rupture at 19:03 local time.

      Destroying Nord Stream 1 would allow Russia to increase pressure on Germany, while at the same time not being a massive loss, as they stated that it was “out of commission”. Russia had stated that the decreased flow and eventual shutdown of Nord Stream 1 was caused by European Union sanctions against Russia, which had resulted in technical problems they could not remedy.

      This would leave the operational, but never opened Nord Stream 2 available to supply Germany with natural gas immediately after the shock of the destruction of Nord Stream 1. This is something Putin still offered Germany through the one remaining Nord Stream 2 line. Germany turned down the offer.

      I believe that the charges were in place on Nord Stream 1, hoping for Germany and Europe to be in a more dire situation during the winter. They would then be blown in an attempt to pressure Europe to give up on Ukraine.

      It was kinda obvious that VVP always intended to use the northern pipelines for blackmail. He had a history of doing that in the pipelines running through Ukraine, so of course he was going to do the same in Germany and the EU. Having the explosives in place by the time of the re-invasion of Ukraine would give him maximum flexibility. NS2 springing a leak messed up the plans.

      I have no special knowledge though, so …

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Anonymous At Work

      @Another Scott: I trust a former Navy SEAL (Pfarrer), aka the underwater demolition Spec Ops soldier, on his evaluation that NORD-2 was a professional underwater demolition.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      GibberJack

      So Prigozhin wants to turn his Wagner PMC into an army with an ideology.

      He thinks he’s going make his murdering and raping dregs of Russia into Sardaukar. Yeah right.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Ruckus

      @Anonymous At Work:

      Given all the effort required to dive on the pipeline and still be alive after completing the dive a sailboat of that size seems like a ridiculous story. Even doing the dive in the first place takes quite a bit of experience and surviving without decompression is rather unlikely so the sailboat seems a very ridiculous story to draw attention away from whoever actually did the deed.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Carlo Graziani

      This concludes the lesson of why I never use anything from the Institute for the Study of War.

      Sorry, Adam, but that’s BS. If you were to apply that same standard to Pfarrer’s output, you would have dropped him like a flaming turd by last summer. Remember his Bakhmut “salient” map from last week, that misled you into announcing that the Ukrainian counterattack was at hand? And the next day, his map had magically healed the dent along that NW-SE highway, and he pretended that nothing had happened?

      You understand perfectly well that all such analysis is “through a glass, darkly,” amounting to making calls using ambiguous evidence under uncertainty. ISW at least shows you what their evidence is (I’ve run down their footnotes through Deeple many times). Pfarrer gives nothing but his projected authority, and his silly, obviously under-informed maps. Changing one’s views and showing you why is called “marking one’s beliefs to market.” Changing them silently as if one has never held them is bullshit artistry.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      YY_Sima Qian

      This Nord Stream sabotage story just keeps getting weirder. However, it is also the current  US intelligence assessment that there is no evidence that Putin ordered the sabotage.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Jay

      Left alone.A dog that miraculously survived today’s attacks lies in the ruins of the house in which his owners died. 5 civilians were killed as a result of russia’s missile strike in Zolochiv district of Lviv region.In moscow, this murder is being called "retribution" pic.twitter.com/2Kj5dxtmkG— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 9, 2023

      Reply
    20. 20.

      Adam L Silverman

      @YY_Sima Qian: There is a long history of Russia’s intelligence and security services, as well as the oligarchs/Bratva leaders simply doing things that fit within what seems to be Putin’s objectives without being given any actual orders. This appears to be the pattern with the wetwork program.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Jay: I posted that last night in the actual post.

      Again, is it too much to ask you actually look and see what I put in the posts before you repost it in the comments?

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Carlo Graziani: Again, and for the last time, this is how the US military makes these types of maps of a battle space. The US military is going to continue to do so whether you like the format or not.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Carlo Graziani: It’s a theme carried through all the parts of Buzzfeed’s investigative reporting on these attacks. I think there’s like eight or nine articles in their series on the wetwork program.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Adam L Silverman: No, it is not. Pfarrer adjusts his maps daily, based on the latest batch of translated tweets and Telegram posts, and he doesn’t bother to do any due diligence on whether what he’s representing cartographically makes any sense. He’s basically an optimistic automaton for turning social media noise into maps. Any US analyst who followed his methodology would be fired in short order, for valid reasons.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      Jay

      @Adam L Silverman:

      yeah I know, but people need to be reminded.

      there was another Russian terror bombing in Kherson earlier this week, and every day since, the death toll has gone up,……..and up,….

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Carlo Graziani: And it’s not freelancing per se. There’s just no specific approval from Putin for them. Basically each agency is competing against the other to achieve what they think are his objectives.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Mike in NC

      @Jay: I’ll need to get one of those Russian tank models to go with my Black Sea flagship “Moscow”. Somebody clever did a bogus box art showing empty seascape.

      Reply
    35. 35.

      Geminid

      @Carlo Graziani: I think Pfarrar’s maps are fine for what they are and no one’s forcing me to look at them. If you don’t like his maps, go look at Noel Reports’ or ISW’s maps and stop carping about someone else’s work

      Pfarrar’s maps may not be perfect, but as far as I’m concerned the glass is half full. Your position seems to be, “the glass is half empty and I’m getting really strung out over it!” That’s a choice, and a poor one I think.

      Reply
    36. 36.

      Andrya

      @Omnes Omnibus:  Nazi Germany also had a “working towards the Fuhrer” rule meaning “do what Hitler wants without making him say it explicitly”.

      I’ve been reflecting, the last couple of days, of how many ways putin’s statements and actions resemble Hitler’s.

      a. Some principle of the universe/deity wants us to conquer our neighbors?  Check.

      b. Telling lies for the great cause is OK?  Check.

      c.  Confusing language with race?  Check.  (In the late 1930’s, JRR Tolkien, a linguist by profession, was queried by a German publisher whether he was Aryan- they were interested in publishing “The Hobbit” in German.  Tolkien replied, with undoubtedly maddening linguistic accuracy, that as far as he knew, none of his ancestors had spoken either Iranian or Indic languages- that is what “Aryan” actually means.  The deal did not go anywhere.)

      d.  Pretending that speakers of one’s own language are being oppressed/subject to genocide in the country he wants to attack- when in fact this is a total fabrication?  Check.

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Geminid: The original point, which I fear cannot be discussed rationally here, is the comparative analytic methodologies of Pfarrer and ISW. But, right, done.

      Reply
    38. 38.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

      @Andrya: Love that story!  I’m actually surprised it got that far. Too few know or realise that Tolkien was a veteran of WW I, a survivor of the Battle of The Somme in fact. Fortunately for the future of fantasy literature, he developed Trench Foot & was ushered out of the British army. Alas, most of his friends did not survive that stupidest IMHO, war. So he couldn’t have had much warm feelings for Germany.

      Reply
    41. 41.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Urza:

      @Omnes Omnibus:

      I don’t disagree, but USG is not currently suggesting that Russia or Russian-aligned groups being responsible for the sabotage, not even via leaks. That’s what makes the recent disclosures all the more strange.

      Reply
    44. 44.

      YY_Sima Qian

      China just brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia & Iran to renormalize relations & hopefully cool the proxy fights between the GCC & Iran across the region.

      The Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour has a good Twitter thread on what this means & doesn’t mean for the region, & the emerging Sino-US competition in the Middle East.

      It does make it interesting how the US attempt to broker a more formal anti-Iranian alliance between Israel & Saudi Arabia proceeds, & how Saudi’s Arabia balances the two parts of its foreign policy. Perhaps the Saudis are realizing that the U.S. will not pay the price it is asking for to consummate the alliance.

      If the Great Power Competition is a race to see who can be the more effective peacemaker/mediator, by all means bring it on. (Alas, we know that will not the case).

      Reply
    46. 46.

      Uncle Cosmo

      @Jay:

      @Adam L Silverman: yeah I know, but people need to be reminded.

      Did “people also need to be reminded” about that “Russian tank model” you reposted from a February 23 tweet? Or did you just crave another jolt of attention from the blog?

      Next time try buying better coffee, maybe?

      Reply
    47. 47.

      Geminid

       

       

      @YY_Sima Qian: The U.S. would like the Saudi-Israeli alliance to be formalized. But the two countries have been the ones negotiating an informal security arrangement. The process that has been ongoing for the last two decades, mostly covertly but more openly in the past few years.

      One significant waypoint was the initiation of formal relations with Israel by Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, two nations that had steadfastly refused to recognize Israel ever since its founding. They would not have done this without a green light from the Saudis.

      A second one was the Pentagon’s transfer of Israel to its Central Command security framework. Israel had been lumped in with the Pentagon’ European command framework since its founding because the Arab countries participating in Central Command framework would have nothing to do with Israel. Some still won’t, but the Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain are the ones who count for most in this informal alliance, and they assented to the inclusion of a country they already were coordinating with. A tangible result was seen last year when a couple Israeli Navy vessels sailed alongside Arab ships in a CENTCOM exercise in the Red Sea. That was a small step, but it would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Still, the more important aspects of the Israeli-Saudi relationship, such as air defense cooperation, are primarily being worked out bilateraly, with some U.S. facilitation.

      Personally, I think the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is good for every nation in the region including Israel. Israeli politicians are not so sure, though. The initial politiical reaction to this development saw the former PM, Mr. Bennett, blame the current government for its ineffective handling of the Saudi relationship, while a senior member of the current government said this would never have happened had it not been for Bennett’s ineffective handling of the Saudi relationship.

      The Mossad chief may have told the Shin Bet and the IDF chiefs, “This isn’t neccesarily about us, but I’m meeting with my Saudi counterpart in a couple weeks anyway and I’ll let you guys what he says about it. Have a happy Sabbath.”

      Reply
    48. 48.

      Geminid

      @Geminid: One positive aspect of renewed relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is that they may help bring the war in Yemen to a close. Neither side can “win” it, and they and their sponsors might as well negotiate a durable ceasefire and start rebuilding their respective territories. The Yemeni people have suffered enough.

      Reply
    50. 50.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Charles: I’ve dealt with it several times, it’s bullshit and requires complete credulity from the reader. If you ask one more time m blacklisting you.

      Reply

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