BREAKING: Ukraine runs out of popcorn pic.twitter.com/W1WBLrTy61
— Sputnik (@Sputnik_Not) June 23, 2023
I’mma let Adam handle the Serious Information here, but as a temporary spillover so that the squeamish among us can discuss other matters over breakfast…
PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
JUNE 24TH, 2023
SUBJECT: RUSSIA
ANALYST'S COMMENTS:
lol. lmao— Decker Eveleth (@dex_eve) June 23, 2023
Live look at Langley right now pic.twitter.com/bf0ZsvDv8b
— vocational politics appreciation account (@Convolutedname) June 23, 2023
It will never stop being funny that a war launched to capture Kyiv in a few days has resulted in an attempted insurrection by the presidential caterer. https://t.co/74fAZ42xav
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) June 23, 2023
Those who know…know. pic.twitter.com/VpPeoGHEhG
— HawaiiDelilah™ ?? (@HawaiiDelilah) June 24, 2023
Is it true Lauren Boebert was giving Wagner Group tours of the Kremlin a few days ago?
— Cliff Schecter (@cliffschecter) June 24, 2023
When Republicans hear the news about Russia:#RussianCivilWar pic.twitter.com/ygVmjeC2g1
— Kragar (@Kragar_LGF) June 24, 2023
It's only a coup if it comes from the Langley region of the Feds, otherwise it's just a sparkling factional dispute https://t.co/Rn9MMdPTiH
— chatham harrison is tending his garden (@chathamharrison) June 24, 2023
“Oh you’re having civ-mil relations issues? Fucking skill issue bitch, I created a private army outside of the state loyal only to me, lmao suck it.”
“Update: Hey gang. Ok, I am learning and growing..”
— William B. Fuckley (@opinonhaver) June 23, 2023
To be fair to Putin, it was hard to imagine at the time that recruiting an army of violent convicted felons directly from the prison system and arming them with tanks and artillery could have ever backfired
— Gas Stove Prayer Warrior (@canderaid) June 24, 2023
Calling all proud boys, qnon, maga, moms for liberty, klan, Elon, Trump, Kushner, Tucker Carlson, Jill Stein, Matt Goetz, Ron Desantis, Mike Flynn- Putin needs your help! Go to Russia now and serve your leader.
This is your chance to save mother Russia.
?? ????? ??????!
— President Kamala’s Hand (Again) (@myronjclifton) June 24, 2023
Let’s briefly put aside all matters of politics, grand strategy, or second order implications and be real for a moment:
It will be very funny if the end result of this war is the ex-KGB guy dead and the guy who voiced Paddington Bear alive.
— Melania Trump’s Burner Account (@IRHotTakes) June 23, 2023
(Truly, this is one of the weirder timelines!)
Baud
Tara Reade chose poorly.
different-church-lady
Nuclear power in chaos always good for a laugh.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
With Russia in disarray where will GOP senators spend the 4th of July?
Eduardo
I have to study something for work this weekend and I don’t know how I will be able to concentrate. This brings back memories of 1989 and 1991. Great times!
Gemina13
Wonder how soon we’ll see Tara Reade and Edward Snowden fleeing Russia?
bjacques
Be a damn shame if Putin is forced to bomb the Rostov arsenal that’s full of stuff meant to be used in Ukraine. Damn shame.
Looks like the cage-fight promoters decided Musk and Zuck weren’t a big enough draw.
EDIT: And I hope President Biden is prepared to tap the Strategic Meme Reserve.
satby
@Baud: Pretty much the pattern of her life, evidently.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
Better them than us.
different-church-lady
@Gemina13: Wonder how soon we’ll see Putin fleeing Russia.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
I bet he flees to Florida.
oldster
Putin warning in his speech that this is a stab-in-the-back just like 1917.
That’s right. Putin is saying that the communist revolution was a bad thing, and that he is Tsar Nicholas II.
It shows you how his ambition all along has been to reassemble the empire — not the USSR, but the one before that. He wanted to reconstitute Tsarist Russia, with himself as the Tsar.
I hope he is getting his wish.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Fiona Glenanne and Michael Westen deserve alot of credit for getting Wagner to flip against Pooty-Poot
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@oldster:
Anastasia Putin probably winced at this reference
Baud
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Heh. Good show.
JPL
I’m having a hard time cheering for the mercenaries, but this could be good news for Ukraine. The domestic unrest might convince Putin to end his war.
JPL
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Loved that show.
Anne Laurie
We will all go together when we go…
(Seriously: I have been a joking nihilist on this topic since my third-grade teacher, a nun of the Dominican order, told us there was no point in duck&cover drills, because any nuclear war would hit targets close enough that we wouldn’t live long enough to know what was happening. That would’ve been during or right after the Cuban missile crisis.)
bjacques
I like that Prigozhin, known began his catering and military provisioning empire with a single hot dog stand. It’s an excuse to post this:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rhCXqxKGn38&pp=ygUdaGFzaWwgYWRraW5zIG5vIG1vcmUgaG90IGRvZ3M%3D
EDIT: File my previous comment under “overtaken by events”. The Russian Air Force just bombed a fuel depot in Voronezh to keep it out of Wagner hands.
eclare
Did Zelenskyy voice Paddington Bear? I see, the Ukrainian version.
oldster
@JPL:
To a first approximation, it has got to be good news for Ukraine.
Consider that two regime-friendly KA-52 helicopters were just filmed bombing the fuel storage tanks in Voronezh in order to deprive Prigozhin’s convoy of gas to drive on Moscow. It’s a small event, but it’s an example.
Not only does it deprive the ruzzian army of fuel for its war in Ukraine, but it also means two helicopters that are not shooting at Ukrainians.
Ditto for the AN-26 troop transport, probably carrying regime paratroopers, that Wagner shot out of the sky. Fewer troops, fewer planes to fight the Ukrainians.
Will all of the subsequent events keep on being good news? No telling. If nukes get launched, then we will all be sorry. But for the meanwhile, ruzzian infighting is very good news for Ukraine.
Geminid
Regarding Michael Tracey:
I would likd this mutiny to succeed if only so I can watch the Butter Goblin having a meltdown.
oldster
@Anne Laurie:
Know just what you mean, AL. During those years our family lived in DC, and it was a point of mixed pride that we would be directly at ground zero for the largest concentration of Soviet nukes. Maybe people in the Dakotas would have to worry about fallout and how to survive in the aftermath, but that was not an issue we would ever face.
It gives you a grim satisfaction at a young age.
Geminid
@Geminid: Also, so I can see Russian war criminal/milblogger Igor Girkin in a pickle.
hells littlest angel
Putin: “If Steiner attacks, I’m sure everything will be alright.”
p.a
MaL refuge offer to Putin yet? tRump1 cleared for Moscow landing?
Baud
@Geminid:
“This proves Biden’s plan in starting the Ukraine war was regime change in Russia.”
/trolls
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@bjacques: Geez, not even 24hr and Putin’s already gone scorched earth
JPL
Zelensky message
Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. Who sends columns of troops to destroy the lives of another country and cannot stop them from fleeing and betraying when life resists. Who terrorizes with missiles, and when they are shot down, humiliates himself to receive Shahed drones. Who despises people and throws hundreds of thousands into the war, in order to eventually barricade himself in the Moscow region from those whom he himself armed. For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it. And all this is one person, who again and again scares by the year 1917, although he is able to result in nothing else but this. Russia’s weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness. And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain, and problems it will have for itself later. It is also obvious. Ukraine is able to protect Europe from the spread of Russian evil and chaos. We keep our resilience, unity and strength. All our commanders, all our soldiers know what to do. Glory to Ukraine!
Manyakitty
@Gemina13: maybe they’re on one of the fleeing private jets with their transponders off. Lolol.
Honus
@bjacques: West Virginia’s own Hasil Adkins!
Manyakitty
@JPL: we still rewatch it every few years. So fun!
Matt McIrvin
@JPL:
I wish this were true. Putin just might be entering the “find out” phase though.
Spanky
Say whut, WaPo?
Russian mIlitary morale? Wazzat?
Frankensteinbeck
@oldster:
What a wildly ahistorical speech. Granted that’s typical of Putin. The similarities are striking, even if Putin has them backwards. A military feared by the world gets its ass kicked because corruption destroyed its logistics and authoritarianism gave it wildly incompetent leaders. The discontent was enough that a populace already aware they lived in a grindingly poor kleptocracy didn’t bother to intervene when a rebel group went after the normally popular head of state.
I doubt Prigo is an idealist like Lenin. I’m sure he’s just as bloodthirsty.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@oldster: I live not all that far from both the Trident sub base here And going the other way down I-95 , NYC.
I always figured I would sit on the front stoop with a wine bottle and bag of popcorn
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Al Jazeera has really good live coverage on their YouTube channel (here) as does the Australian news channel (here)
Meanwhile, MSNBC is running a repeat of Morning Joe and CNN is trash.
azlib
I was living in Montgomery County, Md during the crisis and I remember air raid (missile?) drills where we would go stand in the hallway away from windows in case of attack as if that would do any good. Good times.
Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride
@Geminid: What you did there is seen.
hueyplong
@azlib: Likely the Dakotas kids were sure they were the primary targets, seeing as how they were the home of some of our own nuclear silos.
It was kind of a thing for each locale to pride itself on “priority” starus.
Manyakitty
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: this is truly inexcusable on the part of MSNBC. CNN is at least trying to cover it
JPL
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Hey CNN just woke Wolf so he’s on the air.
Thanks for the Al Jazeera link
JPL
@Manyakitty: Jim Scuitto was texting in the middle of the night. I’m really surprised that they haven’t called him in.
Baud
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
MSNBC faces no competition because they’re the only media that even tries to appeal to liberals. It shows in the quality of their news coverage.
Chris Johnson
From way downthread (I always post in dead threads like an idiot)
This is PURELY speculation following some mentions upthread about how he was behind the Russian internet trolling: that’s been by far more effective than anything else.
Why would it not be just as effective on the Russian people?
So if that’s what it is, Prigozhin, the pissed off mercenary and shitbag, flipped. He and Wagner are actually on Ukraine’s side now, and this is shown not by them becoming good and battling heroically to defend Ukraine, but by pulling off a massive troll on Russia through claiming they’re going to war on the Russian military, so stay inside and don’t look.
This is in line with all the times the same people declared massive MAGA protests in the USA which ended up being damp squibs, or when they declared a red wave that would wipe out Democrats and then it ended up being pretense. It’s a known tactic.
What does this do to the Russian military? Make them totally paranoid and sink them in chaos, with no specific plan to exploit that. Prigozhin would not be leading the charge, he’d be safe in Ukraine or somewhere, orchestrating the trolling. There would be real consequences, but not in the form of a clear leader ousting Putin, not in the form of stability. (edit: or, if he’s actually there, that still does not mean stability: I could be dead wrong about the idea of the guy not actually being there)
This isn’t a great scenario on a number of fronts. One, more chaos is nobody’s friend. Two, if Ukraine likes fighting this way, that doesn’t reflect well on them: here’s hoping if the guy flipped, they don’t adopt all his horrible tactics and people. I can see how this would be tempting and we might be seeing its effectiveness: Russia could implode in the chaos, they need this guy’s chaos engine on THEIR side.
More will be revealed. I’m just saying if this guy is turning chaos war against the Russians because he’s mad at them, it’d look like this, and he’s not leading a charge because it’s not a real charge. It’s trying to get the Russian army to fight itself thinking it’s fighting Wagner. Nobody would be more provably capable of pulling that off than Prigozhin, but it’s a bad outcome.
It seems like Zelensky’s speaking against chaos, and that’s good. I would rather this be intra-Russia conflict and not Prigozhin suddenly fighting for Zelensky: it should be an object lesson in how fucked up the chaos war strategy is.
All the folks asking for Michael Tracey etc. to go fight for Putin might ask themselves who is actually running those people? Unless I miss my guess, they’ve been subcontracted out to Prigozhin this whole time. Let’s see what the obvious tankies do, what the Freedom Caucus do etc. because they may well think they are fighting for Russia but I think Prighozhin’s internet warfare is what directly commands them (except since it’s chaos war, it’s indirect, hands-off, and chaos-inducing).
JWR
Guess who’s back on TV, hawkin’ slippers and pillows? Yep. He’s baaaack! And I’m talkin’ real TV, (CBS), not one of those sub-channels. I wonder if this means ol’ Mikey’s of no further use to the authorities?
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone: Do you mean Groton?
While tridents are built there they’re based near Seattle and Jacksonville
Ramalama
Who will take care of the bots if Father Russia and Uncle are fighting?
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Ramalama: yes, will no one think of the bots?
SiubhanDuinne
@Geminid:
@Geminid:
Don’t for one minute think those went unnoticed.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: yep Groton! Apparently I have been out so long I no longer remember which bases are fast attacks and which are boomers. 🤣
Manyakitty
@JPL: hope they do! I can go the rest of my life without any more Wolf Blitzer.
Matt McIrvin
@Anne Laurie: My second-grade teacher made a similar remark during a tornado drill in the mid-1970s: “When I was a kid we used to have air-raid drills, but nuclear weapons got so powerful that there’s no point.” I didn’t entirely understand what she was talking about at the time, but the school was very close to Dulles Airport which would likely have had a few big warheads assigned to it in an all-out exchange.
hueyplong
An underappreciated side effect of what’s happening in Russia is the welcome silence of several GOPers, likely to continue until they get some marching orders.
Amir Khalid
@bjacques:
I can’t help now but wonder what Prigozhin the hot dog man put in his “hot dogs”. As for Russia bombing its own fuel depot — presumably serving its invasion force — to keep it out of Prigozhin’s hands, well, if I were a Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine I’d be pretty upset about that.
Geminid
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu (@rajipsoylu) has been giving bulletins on events in Russia, and one in his own nation:
It’s not clear yet whether Lukashenko was on the plane. The plane was reported to be heading into Russia after it took off from Belarus’s capital. Maybe there was new information received after it left, or maybe the initial direction was a head-fake.
Bodrum is located on Turkiye’s southwest coast, and was known as Halicarnassus in ancient times. The Mausoleum there was known as one of the “Seven Wonders of the World.” Now Bodrum is known for the many wealthy Russians who have fled there.
Ksmiami
@oldster: exile, and a “party” in the basement of an outpost?
Ksmiami
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone: tequila is stronger and better at numbing the body before the big one. Chips and guacamole are definitely tastier for the final few moments.
Chris Johnson
Dylan Burns (reporter who is in Ukraine now) is skeptical Prigozhin is actually doing what it looks like he’s doing, and says we don’t have enough to go on to take all this at face value: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38mHTfXR9DM
MomSense
@Anne Laurie:
I’ve been pissed about since I found out in kindergarten. I overheard my parents.
Wednesday I was walking by a pizza place band they had a beautiful photo of Samantha Smith smiling in their window and it stopped me mid stride so I could stare at it. I hadn’t thought of her in such a long time.
Rusty
Drivers are also just getting much more aggressive. I’ve driven a Fiat 500, which is tiny, for the last 10 years. I’ve always driven defensively given its size, but other drivers have gotten noticeably more aggressive, especially 4 door pickups and large SUVs. Driver attitude is a serious issue.
MomSense
@oldster:
Ill be curious if Zelensky offers a ceasefire.
ETA someone needs to front page a video of the dance Les cygnettes IYKYK
Doug R
@Gemina13:
Right now both of them are doing the calculus of how much prison time vs dying in Russia.
Snowden is young enough to take a 20 year stretch. Tara Reade hasn’t done much that isn’t covered by the 1st amendment except all those scams she was pulling earlier so she might do a short stretch as well.
Geminid
@Chris Johnson: I don’t mess with YouTube so I cannot comment on this video. But it seems me that there is definitely some sort of power struggle going on. The response from Moscow does not look faked, and neither did the denunciation of the origins of the Ukraine invasion that Prigozhin made the day before his mutiny.
And this is all happening right when Ukraine is poised to up the tempo of its offensive, so it’s terrible timing from the Russian government’s point of view.
If I were a Russian citizen though, I might see a swift defeat in Ukraine as a good thing, and Prigozhin’s mutiny has the potential to bring about that result.
CliosFanBoy
@hueyplong:
Yeah, growing up in Dayton, Ohio, we had Wright-Patterson to the NE (then a huge SAC base) and the Miamisburg Mound to the SW, where they build nuclear warheads.
lollipopguild
@oldster: Funny thing, if he had left Ukraine alone, this would not be happening.
Betty Cracker
According to this Daily Beast report, Putin’s address freaked out Russian citizens in Moscow, for whom this is all getting a little too real:
Apparently Russians stock up on buckwheat when things are falling apart. I only have my own frame of reference, but this has a 1989 feel.
Chris Johnson
@Geminid: Prigozhin could be full-on attacking Russia and trying to seize power, but doing it in exactly the way he used repeatedly (with varying results) to have Trump seize power in America. I don’t think there’s any likelihood Prigozhin ISN’T attacking his masters, but it’s very interesting to figure out which methods he’s using. If it’s a giant troll, it could still work (I think that worked on us in 2016!) but it makes the aftermath really weird.
Prigozhin’s posturing is very much like what one would do if one was intending to succeed in a coup and have Russia accept you as the REAL leaders. He sounds the right nationalist notes.
Russia is trying desperately to cut Prigozhin off social media.
hedgehog mobile
@oldster: Wonder if he forgot things did not end well for Nicholas….
Another Scott
@Chris Johnson: Yeah chaos is chaotic – hard to know what happens next.
I keep thinking of the WWI parallels… “We totally would have won, but we were stabbed in the back!!11” That can lead to much worse disasters a decade or two later.
Whatever happens, the past isn’t past, and we have to fight the monsters every day. Because they’re always looking for something to excite the lizard brain to gain power.
Cheers,
Scott.
Betty Cracker
CNN says Turkish President Erdoğan spoke to Putin and offered his “full support.” WTF.
Another Scott
[ snort! ]
Cheers,
Scott.
jonas
@Betty Cracker:
Erdogan is a piece of shit, but my read is that — possibly in coordination with other NATO members — he is trying to assure Putin that NATO has nothing to do with what Prighozin is up to. I’m sure there are a lot of backchannel conversations going on with the Russians saying the same thing. The last thing we need is Putin using this as an excuse to escalate the war further.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Bet she screamed in vain.
Betty Cracker
@jonas: Good point.
Ken
@Betty Cracker: I’m getting a peculiar “here in this diner outside Dayton” vibe from that report. Maybe it’s just the weird detail of Tania putting down her coffee cup. However it does make me wonder how the Daily Beast’s reporter so quickly located these Russian citizens who were willing to talk about this.
Betty Cracker
What a relief that the orange fart cloud is cheating at golf on a self-branded course in New Jersey instead of commanding the U.S. military right now. Whew!
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Seconded and thirded.
MomSense
Can I just say that this has been the greatest Pride month evah!!!
Maxim
@Baud: Fourthed, fifthed, nthed
lowtechcyclist
@Doug R:
I don’t get it. Why would they be any more at risk than native Russians? After a coup or during a civil war, why would either side give a fuck about them?
lowtechcyclist
@Betty Cracker:
@Maxim:
Aleph-naught’th
Cardinality of the continuum’th
(Might as well get geeky about it!)
jonas
@Another Scott:
I’m not sure how the “stabbed in the back” metaphor works in Russian history — it was how Germans talked about the fact that they had agreed to a ceasefire in November 1918, only to have spineless (((politicians))) accept humiliating terms of defeat a year later in Paris. If anything is playing out here with echoes of WWI, it’s that the Communist revolution didn’t really take off with Lenin in St. Petersburg, but with widespread mutinies in the Russian army.
jonas
@Gemina13:
WTF is Tara Reade (from American Pie?) doing in Russia?
Denali5
@Betty Cracker,
What you and Maxim said.
Martin
@different-church-lady: This permanently flipped into comedy the day the former head of the Russian space agency had his dick blown off at a birthday party.
Once the universe puts a laugh track on something, you can’t keep calling it a drama.
Besides, it’s not like any of us had any real assurance the old guy wasn’t going to start yeeting nukes over the border any day now. On the upside, if this gives Ukraine a window to take control of Zaporizhzhia, it may well avert a nuclear disaster.
jimmiraybob
I suppose that Putin’s blown any chance of joining the NATO alliance.
Steeplejack
@Betty Cracker:
Counterpoint:
Martin
@MomSense: It’s been a real banger, I’ll say that.
Was playing a game with my son last night and he asked ‘is this one of those weeks when decades happen?’ Oh yeah, it sure as shit is.
Chris Johnson
@jonas: No no, the Russian asset who tried to claim that Biden groped her.
Defected to Russia, recently.
Ken
@Betty Cracker: Remember, though, that Trump has already done his part for Ukraine. He touched Putin.
Soprano2
Capehart on MSNBC is full-on “what’s happening in Russia “. I’ve been away from NPR since Thursday so I was “WFT is happening?”
Layer8Problem
@Honus: Ooo boy, Adkins had a diabolically crazed laugh. Liked chicken too!
Chris Johnson
So what it’s going to be: Prigozhin’s facing loss of power relative to the Russian Army, so he is striking back using Internet Research Agency tactics, combined with whatever he’s got militarily. This is why they’ve cut him off from social media in Russia: it’s literal Jan 6 except as a coup in Russia. I have no idea if it will work but it weakens Russia. I have no idea if Prigozhin will end up looking like QAnon Shaman, except dead, but this is him seriously attempting a coup on Russia using his own methods, which have worked better than actual military action.
I’d like to see Russia weakened, but I’d also like to see ‘chaos warfare’ categorically discredited. This is literally the guy who’s been deconstructing the whole rest of the world for years, with methods that work dismayingly well. The thing is this is the inevitable outcome: the chaos comes home to roost. You cannot trust him not to just continue doing his chaos shit, but expansionist again the instant he gets power. He is trying to be expansionist back INTO Russia again. I want to see this chaos strategy come to grief.
jonas
As they say, if you come for the king, you best not miss. Looking at this not, as Tom Nichols suggests, a bona fide coup, but but rather an internecine conflict within a mob family, it appears Prigozhin decided to square up against the boss’s wartime consigliere Shiogu and force Putin to choose between them. Putin has decided to stay loyal to Shiogu (for now, I guess) and take out Prigozhin, which I’m not sure he was expecting. I would bet that Putin is able to eventually dispatch Prigozhin and his Wagnerites, but who really knows? How much harm is he able to inflict on the Kremlin and the army if he thinks he now has nothing to lose?
The scary thing about this is that Russia isn’t a country or a government, it’s a massive international criminal syndicate with Putin at its head. Anyone in power is loyal only to Putin, but then only themselves if something goes wrong. Honor among thieves and all that. Where the tipping point is between “I’m better off with Putin right now” and “Get the fuck out of here and strip the building of wiring on my way out” is never clear. These things tend to start off slowly, then all at once.
Betty Cracker
Former US Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker is on CNN, and he said he thinks Prigozhin is toast but that this will also bring Putin down eventually. He made the point that morale was already terrible among Russian troops in Ukraine and that he doesn’t see how they keep fighting there knowing that it’s a lost cause. He expects the Ukrainians will take advantage of this situation to get the Russians out. Damn, I hope he’s right!
Betty Cracker
@Ken: Biden should grant a Medal of Freedom to Trump, awarded by Rick Wilson!
arielibra
@hueyplong: In South Jersey we understood from a young age that DC/Philly/NY would be targets and we would die some days later of radiation sickness. Fun times!
Martin
So, reading that Putin has called in Kadyrov to stop Wagner, and they might be reaching Rostov around the time Wagner is reaching Moscow.
This is too much of a tease. We need injuries.
kalakal
If this started as some elaborate cunning plan cooked up by the Russians to sucker Ukraine into rushing into an overhasty assault by giving the illusion of Russian forces being torn apart in an internal power struggle its now gone well beyond that and taken on a reality all of its own.
There’s no way Putrid and Prigo can kiss and make up at this point, one of them has to destroy the other.
brendancalling
@Baud: Just made me spit coffee with that one.
Manyakitty
@Betty Cracker: amen from now until late in the second Harris-Buttigieg administration.
Uncle Cosmo
And Sister Sadistica was correct! ;^D
Just FTR, “duck & cover” seemed to make a modest amount of sense for an unexpectedly brief period of time when nuclear weapons’ yields were still in the Little Man/Fat Boy ;^D range and the only intercontinental delivery systems were half-fast ;^D propeller-driven bombers of the B-29 ilk. That interval started when the USA first had evidence the Soviets had tested a nuke (autumn 1949) and ended when both stupidpowers had multimegaton thermonuclear bombs compact enough to drop on the Bad Guys’ homeland (US 1954, USSR 1955) and the means to deliver them at intercontinental range (US B-36 1949, USSR Tu-95 1956).
During that time our family lived in a brick row house about 1.5 miles outside the Baltimore city limits, and for the last few years I attended a 1920s-era brick elementary school a quarter mile farther out. If Uncle Joe had put a 20kT A-bomb smackdab at Baltimore and Charles Sts (the generally accepted center of town) and Mom (or my teachers) had had enough warning to shut the windows, draw the blinds & get us all under the desks (or into the basement), I think most of us would’ve survived the blast and immediate aftereffects. Substitute a multimegaton H-bomb and we would all have been reading the final instruction on that old (fake) Civil Defense poster of the 1960s: Then kiss your ass goodbye.
(But note that by the time the Rooskies had a more-or-less reliable delivery system, they had the big bombs too. So there was never a time when ducking & covering would actually have done much if any good. But that’s hindsight.)
Suzanne
@Chris Johnson:
Is it defecting if we’re like, “Bye Felicia”?
Miss Bianca
@Manyakitty: Plus, Bruce Campbell!
Manyakitty
@Betty Cracker: perfect! Trump already killed it by bestowing our nation’s highest civilian honor on Limbaugh and Gym Jordan.
Manyakitty
@Miss Bianca: love that guy!!! I’d watch a whole series about Sam Axe.
mrmoshpotato
Lotsa great humor in this post.
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker: A sensible leader would realize that having a mercenary army (even run by your “chef”) is dangerous. Having such “chef” making constant verbal attacks on your military leadership is dangerous. Letting him do so for months and months and months is extremely dangerous.
I don’t know what VVP thought was going to be the end-game with Prigo, but him letting this go on so long shows that he’s weak and indecisive and isn’t in control. It’s not going to end well for him, even if he somehow manages to stop Prigo’s plans (whatever they are).
[ womp, womp ]
(via DarthPutinKGB)
Cheers,
Scott.
mrmoshpotato
@Baud:
Oh well.
SteverinoCT
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:
Submarine capital of the world, baby! I live close enough to Electric Boat that I hear the shift whistles. And on a calm morning can hear morning Colors from the base.
Uncle Cosmo
BOOOOOOO!!!!! :^D
mrmoshpotato
@Gemina13:
Haha! But for where? The traitorous trash can’t come back here.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
So I’m looking at the charlie-foxtrot in progress and wondering: if Putin decides he needs to pull troops back from the Ukrainian battlefront to shore up defenses back on the home front, is it strategically better for Zelenskyy and company to let them retreat in good order, or to force the retreating Russians to shoot their way back out?
Ken
@mrmoshpotato: Oh, I dunno. If they were willing to name names, and help trace the money, and be a witness at the trials, all in exchange for a reduced sentence — I could see letting them back in.
Ken
The “DarthPutinKGB” twitter account is lit. My favorie: “Kiev in 3 days has become Moscow in 3 days.” Though “Perhaps I should’ve realised this was all a bad idea the moment Trump said it was genius” is a very close second.
He’s also got re-tweets to people who claim Putin has fled Moscow, but as one of them says he headed to St. Petersburg and another that his plane was turned back at the Kazakhstan border, I’m taking those with a grain of salt.
mrmoshpotato
@Ken: Ok, agreed. Turn state’s evidence and SPILL THE FUCKING BEANS, TRAITORS!
Oh, and by “reduced sentence,” I assume that means life with no parole for Eddie instead of hanging.
mrmoshpotato
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Ksmiami: Hmmm you might be right!
Martin
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: If Wagner is getting Russian military commanders to side with him, you’re at least temporarily going to have a command vacuum. That seems like an awfully good opportunity to, uh, motivate those forces to consider heading home. Even if the only obvious decision is to retreat, who is giving that order? And that’s what the troops on the front will be thinking – has that order been given and we missed it, etc. I don’t think if you’re Ukraine you wait for Russia to get their shit together to order an orderly retreat – you force that issue.
Part of this might also depend on how the situation in Rostov is framed. Is Wagner seeing control of Rostov as them finally having the supply chain they need to move onto Moscow? Redirecting what should be supporting the Russians in Ukraine away from them? If so, that tells the troops on the front that they’re cut off. They might have food and bullets today, but not tomorrow. You want to wait until your supplies are out to make that decision?
Martin
@Ken: I’ve seen pretty reliable reporting that Putin’s plane did leave for St Petersburg. That doesn’t mean he’s on it, though.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: Erdogan and Putin are old frenemies, and have a good, transactional working relationship. Erdogan’s support here furthers that relationship.
When Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu tweeted this news, there were some interesting responses. Some pointed out that when elements of the Turkish military attempted a coup, Putin was one of the 1st world leaders to state is support for Erdogan. So this is returning a favor.
Others pointed out that Turkiye and the Wagner Froup have a history. When the Wagner-led forces of Libyan Feneral Hifter(sp?) were about to take Tripoli and vanquish the internationally recognized government, Turkiye intervened with air and naval assets, and killed a lot of Wagner troops in the process. Turkiye and Wagner troops have also fought in Syria.
Another Scott
@Martin: While he may not be on that flight, VVP is supposed to attend the BRICS conference in South Africa (elsewhere dates are given as August 22-24). Presumably he wants this kerfuffle to be over before then (but he still has to decide whether he wants to risk getting arrested and sent to the Hague).
Interesting times.
Cheers,
Scott.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Chris Johnson: except it’s not Jan 6 but in Russia. Wagner is a fairly large group of mercenaries, sure some are pulled out of the prisons but many are trained, battle hardened troops who, now that they have tied their fate to Prigozhin have nothing left to lose. They either succeed or they end up in front of a firing squad. Which probably makes them very motivated to succeed…
Alison Rose
Love this from Andriy Yermak — photo of him with Ukraine military leaders. “Together with Zaluzhny, Shaptala, Neizhpapa, Oleschuk and Khorenk. President Zelenskyi’s team. The Russians will have chambers 🔥”
Chris Johnson
@EmbraceYourInnerCrone: Wagner is also the internet warfare guys. I’ve linked to Dylan Burns who’s reporting from inside Ukraine, and his deal is he absolutely cannot find any evidence there even is a column of Wagner military heading to Moscow, or anywhere. He’d like to believe it, but nothing he’s seen indicates that massive group of battle hardened mercs.
Hence, me comparing it to Jan 6. Prigozhin clearly wants to give the IMPRESSION that he’s leading a column of hardened mercenaries to conquer his enemies the traitors of the Russian Army for the glory of the true Russia etc etc… and Prigozhin is using Ukranian language for places like Bakhmut… and something’s happening… but we can’t trust what Wagner says, even if we like what it’s saying.
Chris Johnson
Again, I don’t want Prigozhin to succeed, I just want Putin to fail :)
Wagner conquering Russia is actually not a good outcome. I don’t think they will, but I do think this weakens Russia in many ways. They now have the great Russian propaganda-warriors against them, vying for power, and so they’ve killed Wagner access to social media inside Russia.
cain
@Geminid: Assuming Trump, the dude would have been bragging by now about if he was in charge this would never would have happened and he would have provided assistance.
Frankensteinbeck
The convoy can’t have any anti-air cover. My completely militarily ignorant self would think they’d have been bombed out of existence by now.
cain
@hueyplong: Isn’t the guy doing the coup also running the troll farms? I’d think they are waiting on marching orders from him not Putin.
Mike in Pasadena
Most ex military personnel know mercenary armies are difficult to control which is why Dubya’s Blackwater goons were a real concern to many of us. Putin has a poverty of imagination.
RaflW
@David Koch:
“With Russia in disarray where will GOP senators spend the 4th of July?”
Texassistan is lovely in July. Only 103º in the shade! Perfect.
Ishiyama
The Kerensky government yielded to British pressure to keep Russia in the war. That’s why Lenin was able to wield popular support to overthrow it.
caphilldcne
@oldster: as a former nuclear missile launch officer I assure you parts of the Dakotas would be on a first strike list.
Chris Johnson
@cain: The second-order trolls won’t know which to answer to, him or Putin. It’s gonna be very interesting to see which way they jump, because in practical terms Mommy and Daddy are fighting, and the second-order trolls can’t really comprehend such a thing.
It’s going to be hard for some of these guys to let go of Putin, and equally hard to let go of Wagner. And the system through which they get talking points and learn what to think, is controlled by Wagner, not Putin. Which would be why Russia’s cut off Wagner’s internet access and controlled web searches etc etc etc: they have to restrain their own monster now.
MomSense
@caphilldcne:
I decided as a kid that I would not want to survive a nuclear war.
MomSense
@Another Scott:
Dream scenario is that Jack Smith wraps up his successful prosecution of Trump and Co. and returns to The Hague to prosecute Putin. This is assuming Putin lives to be prosecuted.
Also too Prigo in charge is not a good thing. A failed nuclear state is a problem.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@MomSense:
Antwerp!
Martin
Looks like the Oka river is the firebreak. Road is being dug up, bridges prepared to be dropped. Sounds like things are about to both slow down and speed up.
Fair Economist
@Chris Johnson: You are overcomplicating things. This is looking like a pretty standard coup*. Initially that seemed absurd because of the difference in scale between Wagner and the Russian military and the size of Russia but Prigozhin has obviously done his homework and has at least some supporters in the military. Plus he has accurately assessed the regime has little real support among the military or populace. Possibly he was pressured by a purge threat, because it’s still pretty chancy for him, but it’s still the same basic situation as in a gazillion coup attempts before.
* Including the implicit offer to call it off for a promotion, which is pretty common too.
jonas
@MomSense:
Read this morning that Smith has filed a request to push the trial start date back to December now (Cannon had initially set it for August). More flipped witnesses to depose, perhaps?
oldster
@caphilldcne:
Granted, the silos were targeted. And the USSR had up to 45,000 warheads at one point, so every state was going to get a taste. (Esp. given that congressional appropriations were designed so that every state got a taste of the weapons industry.)
But let me put it to you the other way: which piece of the Continental US do you think would have been most distant from the nearest target point? No part of the Washington-Boston corridor would have been more than 20 miles from *some* ground zero. But some parts of the Dakotas might have been 50 miles from a silo. I don’t know where the furthest-from-a-burst point would have been, but I’d still lean towards Montana, Wyoming, or the Dakotas.
Fair Economist
@Frankensteinbeck: I think you are correct, and I think this means the air force is sitting this out. Putin *should* have been able to smash this (imagine a few thousand Ukrainians convoying to Moscow). The fact that he hasn’t means the military is not following orders. This is Prigozhin’s loyalists vs. Shoigu’s, and all the rest of Russia doesn’t seem to care. And why should they? Replacing one kleptocratic sociopath with another makes little difference to anyone but their cronies.
MomSense
@jonas:
Hard to say. Defense just got its first tranche of discovery so there are lots of possibilities.
I also think more indictments are coming.
Frankensteinbeck
@cain:
Some. Running troll farms is a common hobby among the Russian oligarchs. It makes Daddy Vladdy happy.
MomSense
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
Well I’m in the wrong Portland but I did recently start using edibles and I’ve had some crazy dreams this month. Hold up – I started edibles this month and some crazy shit has gone down!!
Omnes Omnibus
@jonas: This was always going to happen. An August trial date was never feasible. Cannon has not done many criminal trials, but, for each one, she set a very early trail date and it was pushed back. Nothing to see here.
Mike in NC
Everywhere I go I see signs that read, “Mercenaries wanted. No experience necessary”.
Geminid
@cain:
@Frankensteinbeck: Prigozhin was responsible for the notorious St. Petersburg troll farm that propagated anti-Clinton disinformation during the 2016 election. I believe he was indicted here for his role.
RaflW
@Betty Cracker: Seeing the language “Turkey is ready to contribute to the settlement of the situation in Russia”. I need a diplomat-speak translation.
RaflW
@Betty Cracker: My thought this morning, when I glanced at the left-open tab for the MTG-Boebert girlfight was that Biden’s experienced, steady leadership will — one hopes — be well noticed by Americans, in stark contrast to the hair-pulling and gibberish-babbling Republicans.
kalakal
@Mike in NC: Nobody wants to work!
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Frankensteinbeck: exactly. Prigozhin is not a good guy, if his actions help Ukraine in the short term, good. But they also have the potential to destabilize the entire region especially if the parts of Russian influence that have large resistance movements take this as an opportunity to overthrow their Russian puppet heads of state.
caphilldcne
@MomSense: it certainly would have been bleak. I actually find it a bit unbelievable that having gotten through the Cold War that proliferation is expanding and we are actually going backwards on weather nukes might be used in some circumstances. Plus the nuclear control treaties now almost completely unraveled. There was actually a bit more stability then. No thanks to Trump and GW Bush and Putin basically proving it’s better to have nukes if you are a small rogue nation.
Ruckus
@Baud:
Florida may be too warm for him. Of course he seems to be having a bit of warmth right where he is….
Would Florida even want him? Seems they already have one loser leader who can’t speak American….
kalakal
On a happy note just saw 2 more of the monarchs emerge from their chrysalids at the kalakal monarch shelter. An amazing and beautiful spectacle. 8 to go.
I was getting a bit worried that they’d become diseased but now I have hope for the remainder.
On a unhappy note Mrs kalakal found a load of water on the driver side floor of her 2018 RAV4 on thursday.
Took it to the dealer – drains from from moonroof blocked – $1800 to repair – due to cunning design flaw you basically have to take the roof apart.
Dealer rang this morning – mould has gotten into the padding and frame
$9,000 to fix!!! A pall of gloom has descended upon kalakal towers.
At least the butterflies brought some light
caphilldcne
@oldster: it’s certainly true there’s a lot of space out there but I think the entire northern tier would have likely suffered from radiation poisoning. In the US I might have considered places like central Pennsylvania or maybe West Virginia (mountainous but farmable) the place to be if you could survive the initial fallout. Northern tier spaces are hard to farm. Of course after reading the Road (RIP Cormac McCarthy) i decided it probably wouldn’t make a difference where you were at.
kalakal
@Ruckus: He’ll be lined up as a guest speaker for Moms for
HitlerLiberty within minutes of landing. Already he has learned to say “Woke”caphilldcne
@kalakal: argh! That’s terrible. Sending sympathy. And also good for the monarchs
Frankensteinbeck
@kalakal:
DeSantis has demonstrated that it’s the only human word you need to be able to say.
Mike in NC
@kalakal: Wife and I test drove Toyota RAV4s in 2004 but found them cramped and noisy. Settled on a couple of Honda CR-Vs instead. Later traded mine in for a 2014 model which I’m still driving. Wife kept hers until last year and now drives a 2020 HR-V that had very low mileage.
OverTwistWillie
I think there is some mixing of stabbed in the back narratives:
Russian forces in WW1 fared okay against Austro-Hungarian and Turkish forces. On the Baltic front, where they faced the Germans, not so much.
There is a Russian narrative that this was the fault of the German nobility and officer class, particularly Prussian Baltic nobles, and by extension the royal household.
Another Scott
[ womp, womp ]
Cheers,
Scott.
kalakal
@Mike in NC: wife had a 1998 RAV4 until 2 years ago. She loved it, nothing ever went wrong. Only sold it because it was a manual transmission and her knees were giving up ( she had a replacement 18 months). The new ( to us) RAV seemed fine until this. The really annoying thing is we didn’t even want the moonroof, they’re pointless in Florida
Another Scott
@kalakal: My 2004 VW Jetta wagon had that issue too, and there was a recall. I just had some dripping from the ceiling in my case, no big deal.
The fix was to cut off the end of the rubber drain hose (visible in the door frame when the door was open) to remove the pinched part and let it drain freely. :-/ I’m surprised that all the manufacturers didn’t learn that long ago…
Condolences on the huge cost. :-(
Good luck!
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
Reports that Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro in Kherson and is ferrying tanks over.
And reports that Wagner has seized two air bases south of Moscow.
Interesting times.
OverTwistWillie
@Another Scott:
“Tire guy” (Trent Telenko) points out they chewed up the security apparatus units loyal to the regime in Donbas.
What’s left around Moscow are manned by the politically connected, and not at all interested in getting killed there or anywhere else.
glc
@jonas: You might want to read something about that.
Ksmiami
@kalakal: sell the car, or find a good body guy and get competitive quotes- it would be insane to spend that kind of money repairing an older vehicle.
Anoniminous
@Another Scott: That plus the fact at least 85% of the Russian Army is effectively being pinned by the Ukrainian Army thus cannot move to counter Wagner’s Operational Maneuvers.
Anoniminous
@Martin:
They’ll need to build or re-build bridges to do anything but ferry them right back in a week or so.
Princess Leia
So now there is a deal? And everything is over?? What is going on????
Martin
@Anoniminous: Well, not clear how much there is to the Dnipro since the dam was destroyed, so it might be pretty easy to bridge these days.
Kent
The Dakotas have a lot of Minutemen missile silos which would be obvious 1st strike targets.
Kent
RUSSIA was responsible.
It is absolutely the case that Prigozhin was simply implementing Russian policy at the direction and funding of his superiors.
Another Scott
#6 is important, of course.
(via RepDonBeyer)
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose
@Princess Leia: Huh?
ETA ah, hmm…not with a bang, but a whimper, I guess
Martin
@Alison Rose:
Sure looks that way. We’ll see what happens.
Another Scott
@Alison Rose:
I wonder if the convicts and mercenaries agree that it’s over… Plus, Prigo seems to have a habit of saying all kinds of things that vary over time…
We’ll see!
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose
@Another Scott: If he was capable of shame, he’d die of it.
Chris Johnson
@Alison Rose: If the whole thing was a big troll, it worked. A journalist in Ukraine, Dylan Burns, was really frustrated that he never found anything he considered plausible video of this column said to be storming towards Moscow.
I think it was a Jan 6, but for Russia, and orchestrated by the same people who did it here. I don’t know if there ever was a column. There’s just all the threats and all the reports and all the saber-rattling.
It caused Russia to flip out, lots of leaders to literally flee, and it made it impossible to miss the weakness in Putin’s position: put him in a no-win situation.
I wonder if there was ever a column of military vehicles at all.
Putin’s the one who leaned into that style of warfare. I hope it’s well established that chaos warfare is bad news. It will come and get you in turn and there’s no real defense against it but healthy educated informed citizenry: and that’s no fun for oligarchs and tyrants.
Another Scott
@Chris Johnson:
I’m shocked, shocked.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Was likely not Biden’s plan. It was my dream.
Geminid
@Kent: I understood that Prigozhin ran that operation under the direction of the Russian government. But it was the role of Prigozhin in troll farms that was raised and I responded accordingly.
luc
Great reporting on Russia by the public German TV DW ( in English): https://youtu.be/c4g6j7mQfp8
Steeplejack
@jonas:
Chris T.
@kalakal:
Had this problem with a 2014 Lexus; local place was able to fix it without removing the roof, by cutting out part of the plastic drain and inserting a replacement. Not super-cheap but way less than what you’ve been quoted. We didn’t have any mold though as I noticed the problem quickly enough…
NotMax
@RaflW
“Speak bigly and carry a soft stick.”
NotMax
@kalakal
Presume it’s out of warranty? Bummer.
Find a conversion shop that will make it into a convertible?
;)
kalakal
@NotMax: out of warranty.
At the moment thinking is insurance will cover it and we’ll trade it in.
An expensive period at kalakal towers, we’re getting the kitchen done, could have done without this
Another Scott
Thoughtful giant tweet in a single post:
I’ll save you a click. ;-)
The next Friedman Unit may tell the tale…
Cheers,
Scott.
The Lodger
@arielibra: Growing up in Wilmington, DE we were told our area was a likely target. Chemical Capital of the World, don’tcha know.