KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: "We will be encouraging, as I have said before, Americans to get their updated COVID-19 vaccine" pic.twitter.com/28PqvODu4E
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 5, 2023
The predicted seasonal surge of covid infections infections in America seems to be underway — albeit, always remember, from a relatively small baseline. The predictable spokesmorons of Our Failed Major Media find this disturbing, something that raises questions, because they are paid to complain about Democratic administrations (and also because they are gullible idiots). Spare a positive thought for Ms. Jean-Pierre; under the circumstances, I’d have to be physically restrained from beating Peter Doocy around the ears with that binder…
So more promising data from an exceptional team
BA.2.86 really doesn't appear to be a huge hit to neutralization after XBB infection
What does this mean?
New covid vaccine (likely coming soon) should provide good protection against infection even against BA.2.86
This is good https://t.co/pWOwTyvJDn
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) September 5, 2023
U.S: Covid in wastewater at highest level since February 2023https://t.co/l72x8Njccm pic.twitter.com/WWW4UGRcVJ
— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) September 1, 2023
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“Federal data suggests that the current increases have stayed far below earlier peaks and notable surges. But judging by word of mouth among family, friends and coworkers, it can seem like everyone knows someone who’s sick with Covid-19 right now…”https://t.co/nCG5Dn470F
— Project N95 (@projectn95) September 1, 2023
Remember, sharing is caring:
… Tracking Covid-19 trends has always had its challenges. But the rise of rapid home tests — and general waning of public interest in testing at all — has all but erased the ability to grasp current case counts nationwide. The CDC officially stopped reporting aggregate Covid-19 case counts months ago, noting that data had become less representative of actual infections or transmission levels over time.
As case counts started to become less reliable, some experts first pointed to hospitalization metrics as a reasonable substitute to gauge transmission. Hospitals were regularly testing all patients, whether they were coming in for Covid-related symptoms or for something else entirely, and they are required to report positive cases. The idea was that case rates in a hospital could serve as a proxy for case rates in the broader community.
There were about 15,000 new hospital admissions for Covid-19 in the week ending August 19, according to CDC data — less than half of what the numbers were at this time last year and lower than they were for about 80% of the pandemic…
Weekly hospital admissions have nearly doubled over the past month, including a 19% bump in the most recent week, CDC data shows. And a sample of laboratories participating in a federal surveillance program show that test positivity rates have tripled in the past two months.
There are some hopeful signs: Biobot data shows that wastewater levels may be starting to flatten, and relatively low hospitalization rates suggest that there may be a lower risk of severe disease for many.
But despite the clear signs of a summer surge, the US has been living in a “fantasy world” where people pretend Covid-19 is “not relevant,” Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Response Task Force coordinator during the Trump administration, told ABC’s “Start Here” podcast.
Precautions like masking and staying up-to-date on vaccinations are especially important as this rise in Covid-19 carries into the broader respiratory virus season, experts say.
“With every respiratory disease season — whether it’s Covid, whether it’s influenza, whether it’s RSV — those increases can impact different individuals in different ways, and there are always severe outcomes associated with respiratory disease season,” Hamilton said.
“Now is the time for us to be practicing good respiratory etiquette. Now is the time for us to remind ourselves to think about our own individual health status and those individuals that we may be around.”
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Here's an animated map showing the spread of the new BA.2.86 "Pirola" variant.
32 samples have been reported so far (in GISAID, based on Nextclade lineage calls), over 4 continents.
Locations are approximate – typically country and state/province.
🧵 pic.twitter.com/ycIJPhchT2— Mike Honey (@Mike_Honey_) September 4, 2023
Sadly, countries all over the world have scaled back #SARSCoV2 tracking, surveillance, testing — including the USA.
So, everybody is making forecasts and planning policies based on inadequate data.#COVID19 https://t.co/o0NyktHTqG— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) September 4, 2023
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The European Commission has authorised an updated COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and its German partner BioNtech to be used in EU countries' vaccination campaigns this autumn to target the dominant Omicron XBB.1.5 variant, it said on Friday. https://t.co/DZyRfzVbAe
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) September 1, 2023
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Early U.S. lab tests suggest that #Omicron subvariant BA.2.86—aka Pirola—may be less contagious & immune evasive than initially feared. Conclusion reached after 2 US teams of scientists completed a series of tests https://t.co/CBsy7AfeDg pic.twitter.com/LdbNTceUap
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) September 5, 2023
In the lab: Scientists are developing a test for #LongCovid's 'brain fog.' 2 newly identified blood biomarkers are predictive of cognitive deficits. Findings are based on >1800 patients. Next step is a diagnostic test. Cognitive deficits are debilitating https://t.co/0ZW15Y8c7Y pic.twitter.com/1ZAkMlfsRw
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) September 3, 2023
Some good news coming out of a 2nd lab on BA.2.86 Pirola:
The measured escape is not nearly as bad as it looked on paper (from the constellation of escape mutations) and appears similar to the circulating variants.
Hopefully we will see this play out in the real world. https://t.co/rxsAMS2Tmz
— JWeiland (@JPWeiland) September 5, 2023
Lisa Sanders, the doctor-detective who made a name for herself writing about patients’ medical mysteries in her Diagnosis column, is confronting long COVID treatment at Yale’s new clinic. But what happens when the mystery is too difficult to solve? https://t.co/UiYIrdymwW pic.twitter.com/eoX3hFH0aH
— Intelligencer (@intelligencer) August 29, 2023
Worth reading the whole thing:
…. Long COVID has been pushing the limits of hospital systems everywhere, not just at Yale. As Americans emerged from the most acute phase of the pandemic, as mask and vaccine mandates lifted and life returned to a semblance of normal for the people who had contracted COVID and recovered, primary-care physicians started to say, “‘I’m not interested in long COVID,’ or ‘I don’t treat long COVID. Let me refer you to a specialist,’” said David Putrino, who runs the new chronic-illness recovery clinic at Mount Sinai. For their part, Putrino added, the specialists were saying, “This is not what my practice is. This is not an emergency anymore.” Patients all over the country reported monthslong waiting times for appointments at long-COVID clinics. All the while, scientists and pundits heaped skepticism on the very notion of long COVID, arguing that infection made people stronger, that new variants posed no threats, that the danger of long COVID was overblown — implying that what patients were suffering from was all in their heads.
Forgotten in this debate are the 65 million people worldwide for whom the pandemic remains a torturous everyday reality. Absent the kind of long-term studies that can provide more definitive answers on what long COVID is and how it can be treated, these people are in desperate need of clarity from someone devoted to their care. Spatz and her colleagues were proposing an alternative model: a clinic led by an internal-medicine doctor with a full hour to listen to each patient. This physician would create a treatment plan, communicate extensively with the patient’s primary-care team, and refer out to subspecialists when necessary. It wasn’t glamorous. It might never produce patents or profits or win prizes.
As Sanders listened to her friend unspool this idea, her excitement mounted. Hearing patients’ complicated problems and solving them was her sweet spot, the talent and interest upon which she had built a storied career. Now 67, she has long been known as the Arthur Conan Doyle of medical diagnosis, “a paragon of the modern medical-detective storyteller,” as the celebrated surgeon Atul Gawande once described her. In addition to teaching internal medicine at Yale, she writes “Diagnosis,” a monthly medical-mysteries column for The New York Times Magazine, which was the inspiration for the long-running television series House. She has written two books on diagnosis and in 2019 was featured on a Netflix docuseries also called Diagnosis.
Sanders, energetic and brusque, had been casting about for her next challenge. And here, unexpectedly, it was. “I was like, Yes! This is what I’ve been looking for,” she tells me. The Monday after the party, Sanders sent an email inquiring about the position. “I was really the only qualified person who applied for the job,” she says. Among the ambitious academics at Yale, evaluating frustrated patients for long COVID — and then treating their ever-changing and unremitting symptoms — was not seen as an auspicious professional trajectory. But in their lack of interest, Sanders saw a path forward beyond diagnosis: As an internal-medicine doctor, she was already an expert at managing chronic disease. “There are no antibiotics for diabetes. There’s no magic pill for hypertension,” she says. She has spent more than two decades not offering cures but helping people improve their imperfect health. She could aim these skills at a new subset of patients suffering from this novel disease…
✓ out @microbeminded2's terrific thread that summarizes the review
Thanks to Amy and co-authors for pulling this essential body of evidence togetherhttps://t.co/FtipOsQj0c— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) September 4, 2023
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Not the typical age group affected, but #LongCovid in seniors can have profound adverse effectshttps://t.co/pvn3iVlg6P @NYTScience by @paula_span w/ @VirusesImmunity and @zalaly pic.twitter.com/MOpSbfgCvK
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) September 5, 2023
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A very nuanced, balanced, insightful & informative interview with @dr_kkjetelina about pandemic revisionism
“I think there’s an attempt,” she says, “to revise 2020 really under the comfort of 2023 vaccines and treatment and immunity” https://t.co/33SO9uLEmJ
— Prof Gavin Yamey @gavinyamey.bsky.social (@GYamey) August 30, 2023
In case anyone suspects reports of right-wing vaxxteria are exaggerated, the ‘DiedSuddenly’ page has over half a million followers…
If the Ebola outbreak at The Burning Man Festival is confirmed to be true, you can be sure that it was a pre-planned and calculated operation by our own Government. pic.twitter.com/lmsEHdNc34
— DiedSuddenly (@DiedSuddenly_) September 3, 2023
Laura I’m gonna be honest with you I’m gonna comply with ebola lockdowns https://t.co/FtTB7DT9iV
— Centrist ??Madness (@CentristMadness) September 3, 2023
covid vaccine skeptics wondering why so many people died since the pandemic started would so fucking funny if over a million didn’t die from it pic.twitter.com/hvvclMS119
— pudding person (@JUNlPER) August 28, 2023
AM in NC
Well, hubby and I avoided COVID for nearly three years, and it got us last week. UGH. Miserable. For me, at least (his case was milder). Thank FSM for the vaccines/boosters.
My friend who works at our local library says their staff has been wiped out with it as well, and they’re now back to masking.
I sure will be masking indoors again (as soon as I am able to leave my house again!). This is nothing to mess around with.
Matt McIrvin
I want that booster! Wearing a fresh N95 on the bus right now.
p.a.
We’re learning more, and more quickly, about Long-Term Stupidity than we are about Long-Term Covid.
Easier to diagnose. Contagious, but possibly self-limiting (see: Darwin Awards.) And we know the transmission vectors.
Lapassionara
Thank you, AL, for this amazing post. You are providing an invaluable service. I’m still masking for sure. I’ve had COVID once and don’t want it again.
sab
I guess its time to order more N95 masks. They aren’t as easy to find as they used to be.
MikefromArlington
No matter how intellectually dishonest the argument is these bozo’s need to be reminded the spread of the virus, govnt funding for vaccines, shutdowns all started on the Republicans watch while Trump fiddled and Pence dreamed about bubble baths with Trumps sons.
Scout211
COVID-19 booster shots expected as early as next week
bbleh
It really is ODD with these children-in-grown-up-bodies isn’t it? The only virtue for them, in fact the core of their identity, is to oppose and defy, and the more rudely the better.
Wouldn’t bug me if they just killed each other off, but there are a lotta innocent bystanders …
bbleh
@p.a.: Unfortunately it seems pretty clear it’s endemic at this point, and given the inherited risk factors and the widespread
vaccinescience resistance, I’m not optimistic we’re going to be able to reduce the prevalence significantly, at least not in the near term.New Deal democrat
The CDC did its biweekly update of variants on September 1, with EG.5 increasing from 20.6% to 21.5% of new cases. FL.1.5.1 is the next-largest strain at 14.5%. BA.2.86 did not have a large enough share yet to be broken out separately.
The post already shows Biobot’s graph. Let me just point out that there was over a 10% jump in the week from August 23 to August 30, evident in sharp spikes in every Census region except for the West.
The post also shows the increase in hospitalizations, now about 3.5x their lows in June. The CDC’s death data is badly lagging, only fully updated through August 5 at 616 (vs. the low of 468 on July 8). But we already know from the preliminary estimates of 641 and 636, respectively, that the next two weeks will be higher. If deaths follow at the same rate as hospitalizations, by the end of September they will be over 1600.
Unfortunately, there is no sign in Biobot’s data that the infection rate is peaking.
As I’ve mentioned several times in the past month, I have returned to masking indoors in all public places. I have noticed a small but noticeable uptick in others doing the same.
As for why this wave appears to have taken off, despite the current variants not being particularly virulent, I think the best hypothesis is that very few people have had booster shots in the past 4-6 months, so the effect of the last boosters is probably wearing off; as is the protection from recent past infections, because the rate was so low this spring and early summer.
frosty
@sab: The local Home Depot still has 3M Aura N95s in stock, so check there. Thanks for the reminder, I think I’m down to less than five and have been planning to go back to being the only one in the grocery store with a mask.
OzarkHillbilly
That’s called “FREEDUMB!!!”
lowtechcyclist
Just in case anyone has forgotten, Naomi Wolf is the crazy Naomi, and Naomi Klein is the sane one.
I always have to check, and apparently I’m far from the only one.
zhena gogolia
@lowtechcyclist: Klein has written a whole book on the subject.
lowtechcyclist
I never stopped masking up in stores and such.
lowtechcyclist
@zhena gogolia:
I feel sorry for her, that would really suck to be routinely confused with someone like Wolf.
Steeplejack
@lowtechcyclist:
Helpful mnemonic:
If the Naomi be Klein you’re doing just fine.
If the Naomi be Wolf, oh, buddy—oof.
Steeplejack
@lowtechcyclist:
Just think how Matt Gertz feels!
Barbara
@Steeplejack: “Dr.” Naomi Wolf doesn’t understand what she’s seeing is basically the story of her entire career over the last 20 years. Not understanding what she’s seeing and trying to make you understand what you are seeing through the distorting lens of her contrarian thinking, which she engages in because otherwise no one would listen to her at all.
That she calls herself doctor when opining about medical issues is emblematic of her distortions. She wants you to think she is a medical doctor when her claim to being a doctor is PhD in literature or some other liberal arts subject.
lowtechcyclist
@Steeplejack:
I know, right? But for some reason I have no trouble remembering that Matt Gaetz is the nutcase.
moonbat
Thank you again, AL, for continuing to keep us up to date on the latest with Covid’s ever changing landscape. Especially your round up of the latest research on Long Covid.
I’m headed back to the classroom this week and already decided that mask wearing indoors is the best option until I can get that booster shot this fall.
Yarrow
Thank you as always, AL. These threads are so helpful. I seems like every time I turn around someone else I know has Covid. One friend started feeling sick with it Friday night after having lunch with two other friends who were talking at that lunch about how they had avoided it so far. I guess we’ll see!
This is so true. A friend’s dad got Covid mere days before the first vaccines rolled out. Terrible timing for him. He has never really been the same since. Definitely affected his cognitive function.
Yarrow
@New Deal democrat:
I agree, which is why I wish they’d allow people to get boosters every six months if they want. I wasn’t allowed to get another booster (didn’t meet the criteria), so I got Covid instead. I’m really angry about that. I understand waiting a certain amount of months between boosters but it seems clear that 12 months is too long.
I don’t understand why they are they making us risk getting Covid and thus long Covid instead of offering boosters to those who are willing to get them. The number of people who will get a booster will be small enough that it’s not going to be a massive cost issue. But every one who does it means a lot fewer Covid cases as they are much less likely to spread it.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
38 new cases on 08/30/23.
46 new cases on 08/31/23.
66 new cases on 09/01/23.
Deaths now at 2307, up 2 from last week.
The NYS website I was using announced that they stopped updating any COVID case info as of 9/1/23. Too bad they’re pretending it’s all over when it’s not.
Princess Leia
@Scout211:
There is a rumor on T/X that it might get limited to the over 75 and immunocompromised. Does that seem likely to you?
MazeDancer
Continued gratitude to Anne Laurie.
Know some people in NYC where one partner got a mild case, the other was in the hospital for 2 weeks. Both vaxxed.
But he had neurological issues to start. And COVID caused him to lose control of one side of his body. He is better now.
Another couple in Santa Fe, where she got a mild case. He got negative results. She has Crohns. He has very early memory issues. Both vaxxed.
So not sure what pre-existing conditions means.
All 3 took Paxlovid. And reported good results.
Think tracking Paxlovid scrips would e a good way to track COVID among people who are paying attention at least.
Also, how are people in red states not all sick and dying? Maybe they are and we just don’t know about it.
Ruckus
I’d have to be physically restrained from beating Peter Doocy around the ears with that binder…
It’s his way of commanding respect in this world.
Working so very well isn’t it?
Isn’t it spelled Peter Douche? Have I been getting it wrong all along?
smith
The levels of infection are still quite low, compared to historical data anyway, and it’s probably too early to see and big effects on deaths, but CDC does provide a county-level map of hospitalizations (scroll down to see it). It’s mostly green, but the counties that are yellow or orange appear to me to be in red areas.
arrieve
@moonbat: I’m heading back to the classroom as well–first class is Saturday. And unfortunately because I teach ESL, I can’t wear a mask in the classroom. The students have to be able to see my mouth when I talk. All I can do is wear my mask every minute when I’m not actually teaching. (And I would feel a lot better if one other person in the damn university was actually wearing one, but I’ve yet to see it.)
I have several friends who’ve gotten sick in the past month–I’d spent the day with one of them the day before she got sick–so I know it’s Not Over. And I get so frustrated that everyone seems to want to act like it is.
Bill Arnold
@MazeDancer:
There was a study preprint in late 2022 using the US Department of Veterans Affairs health database that showed that major reductions in risk of long COVID symptoms were correlated with courses of Paxlovid (well, the Nirmatrelvir part).
Nirmatrelvir and the Risk of Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PDF, November 5, 2022).
It hasn’t made its way through peer review yet as far as I can tell.
Anyway, I tested positive (rapidtest) at noon (sniffles only symptom, somebody else in house tested positive) a couple of weeks ago and had my first dose of Paxlovid by 6:00 pm – that study linked above motivated me to immediately find an urgent care / telemed to get a prescription. (So far, no obvious long covid symptoms.)
Yarrow
@arrieve: Get some portable HEPA filters for your classroom. You can put them near the front where you are. May not be perfect but it will help. I have this one and it has worked well for me. There are many others. I even have a small one I take with me to meetings.
Yarrow
@MazeDancer:
Holy cow. Judgmental, much? Like most places, the cities in red states are generally blue. The states are not monoliths of red.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Yarrow:
Same. <sigh>
MazeDancer
@Yarrow: Not quite sure how I offended you. But apologies.
Since there have been numerous studies showing how more people in red states died of COVID than did in Blue States, was just wondering why, if many vaccinated people are getting COVID for the first time, there aren’t there larger impacts in unvaxxed areas.
moonbat
@Yarrow: I second that idea. I teach most of my classes in the same room and I had a HEPA filter put in there first thing when they put us back in classrooms. It completely exchanges the room’s air like twice in an hour. So far, (knock wood) I’m a Novid and I plan to stay that way.
Scout211
@Princess Leia: Sorry, I just saw your question.
The answer is, I don’t know. I’ve been reading news stories for the past few weeks about this booster being for “everyone,” but it will be up to the review panels of the CDC and the FDA to make the final recommendation. So I guess we won’t know until they make their announcements.
Hopefully, it will be everyone.
Scout211
@Yarrow: I just purchased this one for my daughter’s classroom. I have a Levoit for my home (the same one that you purchased) so I do trust the quality of Levoit brand. This 600s model is larger, covering 3,175 sq ft.
Yarrow
@MazeDancer:
You didn’t offend me but it’s tiresome how people judge everyone who lives in a red state. You originally said this:
and then you said you meant this:
Those are not the same thing. I stand by what I said above, that red states are full of blue cities. If you are interested in looking at illness and death rates in vaxxed vs unvaxxed people, that data is available.