(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Just a brief(er) update tonight.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We are using all means to ensure that this war ends with the defeat of the occupiers – address by the President of Ukraine
24 October 2023 – 19:30
I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!
Today is a busy day with a lot of international work. The next summit of the Crimea Platform, its parliamentary dimension, has taken place. The first such summit was held last year in Croatia, and now the second one is in the Czech Republic. I am grateful to our Czech partners for their help in organizing the summit.
The powerful summit declaration is about supporting Ukraine, our territorial integrity and sovereignty, the need to liberate all our land from the occupier, and all our people from Russian captivity. Support of our Peace Formula. A clear voice in support of increased pressure on Russia and the exact assistance that Ukraine needs to win this war.
I’m thankful to Ruslan Stefanchuk and the entire team of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the involved public institutions for brilliantly holding the summit.
This time, almost 70 parliamentary delegations from different countries around the world. High-quality statements. The unwavering attention of the democratic world to Ukraine, our defense.
I addressed the summit participants and outlined our tactics regarding the Black Sea region and Crimea. Despite many doubts from various international actors, Ukraine has shown that it can prevail, despite all the challenges, especially in the Black Sea region.
This is indeed a historic achievement when the Russian fleet retreats not only from the western part of the sea but even from Crimea. However, this will make no sense to the occupiers.
And I want to say separately to all our people in Crimea, in Sevastopol, in all the occupied areas of the South and East of our state, in the currently occupied areas. Dear Ukrainians! All of you feel that the Russian presence on our land is not permanent. I know this.
Ukraine will reclaim its territory and its people. We will not leave anyone to the occupiers. We are using every means to ensure that this war ends with the defeat of the occupiers.
Today, I also participated in the meeting of the College of EU Commissioners, a significant EU institution led by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Step by step, we are moving towards a historic milestone in our relationship with Europe – we are working to open negotiations for Ukraine’s EU membership already this year.
There are significant legislative innovations and necessary steps in building institutions.
In addition to the obvious historical importance for us as a state, the start of negotiations with the EU on membership will also have a substantial practical effect here and now, for all our people and our warriors. Motivation is also a weapon, and it needs to be recharged. We expect this powerful boost for Ukrainian motivation – the readiness on the part of the EU to begin negotiations with Ukraine, the corresponding political decision. I thank all the partners who are working with us to bring this closer.
A few more things.
Today, another Ukrainian-German business forum has started in Germany. The key is that our defense industry, energy, and infrastructure are presented at the forum.
There are good agreements and joint projects. I am grateful to Chancellor Olaf Scholz personally, his government team, and all of German society. Our level of relations and trust between Ukraine and Germany is indeed the highest in all the years of our independence.
We are preparing another significant international meeting regarding the Ukrainian Peace Formula at the level of advisors and special representatives.
It has been almost a year since the points of the Peace Formula were presented. Much has been accomplished in this year, and our Peace Formula is gradually becoming global. Currently, the Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are working on expanding the circle of participants in the meeting, and we already understand that representatives from all continents will be present.
I want to thank everyone in the world who is helping Ukraine get closer to a just peace! Today, I want to specifically acknowledge Denmark. I met with the Danish Minister of Defence. We discussed our further cooperation – the preparation of a new defense support package. Every day, every week, we use to make our country stronger.
Glory to Ukrainian warriors! Glory to our entire nation!
Glory to Ukraine!
Donetsk:
Great teamwork by @SOF_UKR operators and artillery. A notorious russian counter-battery radar system, Zoopark-1, was destroyed in the Donetsk operational direction.
📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/AvNsP9EQ4d
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 24, 2023
Russian tank suddenly explodes somewhere in the Donetsk direction. pic.twitter.com/W9vI47yZ0x
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 24, 2023
Avdiivka:
A Ukrainian drone wipes out the lonesome Russian-Soviet flag planted on the Adiivka slag heap.
The height remains a contested zone between combating parties. https://t.co/ykXzqyTDMI— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 24, 2023
Here’s a machine translation of the quoted tweet:
The Russians set up their rags on the approaches to the tericon near Avdiivka. But they have already been destroyed.
Terikon is currently in a gray area. The occupiers are on the approaches to it, but cannot gain a foothold. As soon as they try, they die. They put down the rags and ran away.
The Shadow unit took them down with a drone. Let them climb again. And they will die.
Also from drones.
FYI, this is the Avdiivka Coke Coal Plant in 2017.
A real monster, a city of steel, steam, and fire.
It felt super impressive.
Now it's a fortress of war, just like so many of its fellow industrial giants of Donbas that will unfortunately never be manufacturing centers again. pic.twitter.com/jNHYQr1Wuq— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 24, 2023
Another Ukrainian city destroyed by Russian bombs. The video shows much of Avdiivka’s city center including Tsentralnyi Ave. (formerly Vulytsya Karla Marksa), which I recognize from Beer Бери shop at the end. Avdiivka has been fought over and under Russian shelling since 2014. https://t.co/pzytQW4QtY
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 24, 2023
Avdiivka, Donetsk region
Video by volunteer Bohdan Zuyakov pic.twitter.com/iyu985Bgy5— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) October 24, 2023
Tatarigami marks his beliefs to market:
An important aspect of being a decent analyst is the periodic review of one's prior work, retrospectively evaluating its accuracy, pinpointing mistakes, and gaining insight into the reasons behind incorrect conclusions.
In line with this approach, I have revisited some of my… pic.twitter.com/J9wvTeFa2z
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 24, 2023
An important aspect of being a decent analyst is the periodic review of one’s prior work, retrospectively evaluating its accuracy, pinpointing mistakes, and gaining insight into the reasons behind incorrect conclusions.
In line with this approach, I have revisited some of my earlier analyses and located inaccurate conclusions. Perhaps the most important error I made was downplaying the probability of a major offensive by the Russian forces by the end of this year.
In the earlier part of this year and during the early fall, I reached the conclusion that Russian forces were engaged in training exercises with reserves, refurbishing units, and replenishing vehicle losses. My assessment at the time was that Russia would preserve an adequate defensive capability, but I failed to foresee their ability to launch an army-level operation by year-end.
While I observed substantial brigade and corps-sized formations, their state of readiness and positions suggested a role as reserves poised to respond to emerging threats rather than serving as an offensive mechanized force. Consequently, I mistakenly concluded that the Russians wouldn’t deploy these units in significant offensive operations. This perspective seemed reasonable to me, especially in the context of the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive. My assessment was further reinforced when the Russians initiated their own counter-attack in the Kupyansk direction, where the enemy employed platoon, company, and reinforced company forces for assaults, rather than launching a large-scale, army-level operation.
One of the scenarios I had considered as quite probable was that the Russians would wait until our forces exhausted their offensive capabilities in Robotyne and then counter-attack with company-sized units, with the objective of limiting our gains from the counter-offensive.
Instead, they launched an army-level offensive operation against one of the most fortified and well-defended segments of the frontline, using forces I had mistakenly labeled as response reserves. The results have been roughly in line with what I had expected – shockingly high losses, with a documented count of at least 109 vehicles, each verified by satellite imagery. If you haven’t had the chance to review this data, I strongly recommend doing so. By this time, the actual count is likely closer to 200 vehicles.
Given my anticipation of such significant losses, I had assumed that the Russian command would refrain from launching army-level operations, at least until the following year.
The question that naturally emerges is why they proceeded with this operation despite the foreseen high losses. If I could foresee such losses, it’s reasonable to assume the Russians could as well. This raises the question of whether they have regained sufficient confidence to execute corps and army-level operations against the most challenging defenses, even at the cost of unacceptable casualties. If they had been planning this operation for a considerable duration, as the evidence suggests, it prompts us to consider whether they genuinely think that this is a sustainable approach.
This should serve as a wake-up call for many. Russia is still a significant presence and capable of causing harm. The situation in Avdiivka remains challenging, with the enemy exerting pressure using a large number of vehicles, infantry, and air support. It highlights the necessity for a thorough and meticulous reassessment of the enemy’s capabilities, while also underscoring the critical importance of military aid to Ukraine. This aid is indispensable to ensure that Ukraine possesses the essential resources to stop Russia and liberate occupied territories.
Beryslav, Kherson Oblast:
Russia's intensified airstrikes in the Beryslav region of Kherson oblast pose a grave threat to the 287 children still residing in the area. Mandatory forced evacuation ordered from specific areas. pic.twitter.com/3j0HrAuQpT
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 24, 2023
For you acquisitions and logistics enthusiasts:
A recent success was to convert redundant US air-to-air AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles into surface-to-air missiles.
“Those missiles were out of operation. We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence.”https://t.co/hhwcExanf6
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 24, 2023
From The Financial Times:
“We have a huge deficit of ammunition not just in Ukraine but all over the world,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Financial Times. “We understand we should produce this here in Ukraine because all around the world it’s finished, it’s depleted. All the warehouses are empty.”
The government was drawing on the lessons of its dramatic increase in domestic drone manufacturing, he said, which is up from “a few dozen last year” to “dozens of thousands” this year. Kyiv was also shifting its budget to concentrate on the “military defence complex”, including air defence and artillery.
But building up a procurement industry for shells, artillery and air defence is a far more complex and ambitious undertaking than for drones, at a time of worldwide shortages of key components and raw materials. One official said they could not quickly transform shell production in the way they did for drones, not least because of the global “shortage of gunpowder”.
Shmyhal was speaking before US president Joe Biden’s call for Congress to approve a multibillion-dollar security package for Ukraine and Israel. That message was a timely morale boost to Kyiv given the sluggish nature of the counteroffensive, prospects of a protracted war and concerns over how America’s febrile politics could undermine its long-term provision of arms and funds.
But 20 months since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials know how essential it is to turbocharge their own industry and innovate at speed.
A recent success was to convert redundant US air-to-air AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles into surface-to-air missiles — an area of critical need given Russia continues to launch attacks on towns far from the front line.
“Those [AIM-9] missiles were out of operation,” said a senior Ukrainian official in reference to a batch of that type supplied to Ukraine. “We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence.”
Those repurposed projectiles would help “get us through the winter” when Russia is expected to bombard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to plunge the country into darkness, the official said, adding that this was not a long-term solution, however.
This was one of a number of such initiatives where they were converting old material deemed redundant by the US military into essential weaponry, the official said. “We have an agreed solution where we take something obsolete and make it something different.”
Asked about the congressional turmoil in Washington where radical Republicans earlier this month rejected funding for Ukraine, Shmyhal conceded “this political shaking inside the USA is a big concern”.
The premier would not be drawn into commenting on the consequences if Donald Trump was re-elected US president next year and ended American support for Ukraine. “These are political challenges for us. Right now many changes are happening among our partners,” he said, also alluding to EU elections in June.
But Shmyhal insisted Kyiv remained confident in the Biden administration’s long-term pledges of support and in the continuing backing of the American people.
Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for innovation and digital transformation, said the drone revolution he oversaw was enabled by opening up the traditionally state-run industry. That same shift to the free market was essential if Ukraine was to develop a munitions industry, he added.
“We’ve revolutionised the bureaucracy [for drones],” he said, citing tax cuts for drone companies and the removal of duties on components.
The state had to “turn into a venture investor”, he said, removing its monopoly on weapons production and creating “the best conditions in the world for entrepreneurs”.
Fedorov’s latest focus is on first-person view (FPV) drones, which allow the controller to see what the drone camera is seeing. Ukraine has increased the production of FPV drones a thousand-fold in the past year, he said, via a collaboration with the private sector. “Now a large number of factories are opening” to manufacture ammunition for FPV drones, he added.
As for the unstated but prevalent concern in Kyiv that US weapons supplies will slow down, Kamyshin said America’s arms industry and military would always want to work closely with Ukraine.
“They have seen how creative and how good we are in making things work faster and well. So if you take something that is broken and give it to Ukrainians they will not just make it work, they will make it work better. People will always like to do business with this kind of engineer.”
More at the link.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has a new report on what Ukraine must do to prepare for the upcoming winter combat season.
“If Russia can destroy the ability to pump water in Ukraine’s cities during periods of cold temperature, pipes will burst, potentially rendering urban areas uninhabitable. Thus, the missiles must be intercepted – but interceptors are a scarce commodity.” https://t.co/WRsNW8406l
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 24, 2023
The Center for European Policy Analysis also has a new report on why the costs of abandoning Ukraine would be exorbitant.
“Helping Ukraine win this war, and then the peace,is the best investment NATO & its allies can make in their own defense. The West might be paying a high price in terms of treasure, but Ukraine is paying a much higher price in blood.” @cepa https://t.co/gTyLN8bWyo
— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 24, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
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Meet Alpha, the dog who also brings 🇺🇦 victory closer.
📸: @georgian_legion pic.twitter.com/JmcS77qCpU
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 24, 2023
🐶 together strong https://t.co/0oiNKdQhUF pic.twitter.com/hhtVDNqulS
— Georgian Legion (@georgian_legion) October 23, 2023
Open thread!
skerry
Adam, I appreciate the effort you go through to produce these updates. Thank you
Alison Rose
I just want to cry. Which doesn’t do anyone any good, but it’s either that or scream until my throat ruptures.
And I don’t know what else to say today except thank you as always, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@skerry: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: You, too, are most welcome.
japa21
Adam, I’ll join the chorus of thank yous, but I want to add something. Sometimes I read what you have presented, not in terms of facts but in terms of your interpretation of the facts. First of all I marvel at how quickly you can put together such a cogent analysis. But secondly, even when I may disagree with your conclusions, I always come away looking at my own perceptions a little differently. Since I can be a stubborn SOB when it comes to my beliefs, that says a lot about your ability to communicate to others.
And you do it without being condescending. A real rarity.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: Thank you for the exceedingly kind words. You are also most welcome.
NutmegAgain
Requires this slightly off topic link–dogs who drive, blame New Zealand!
Martin
Man, takes some guts to fire an AIM-9 out of a tube on your shoulder. We’ve been making them for 70 years now, probably zillions of them around the world. Absolutely not designed to be activated when a person is standing right behind it.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: What could possibly go wrong?
Repatriated
@Martin:
Seemed vaguely familiar– turns out we’ve done it ourselves.
MIM-72 Chaparral.
Another Scott
@Repatriated:
Made me look…
It’s really, really bad when new weapons don’t blow up when they’re supposed to…
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
Throwing away operational reserves in meat grinders to capture heavily defended objectives of questionable strategic value, reserves that might have been useful in preventing meaningful Ukrainian gains in the south for the next year, is pretty par for the course. Tatarigami_UA’s reassessment is a useful reminder that Russia retains substantial capacity to generate combat power (even if of uneven or sub-bar quality) that will continue to stress Ukrainian resources for quite some time, but the Russia’s ability to maximize the impact of these resources remains shockingly lacking.
From a rational point of view, if Putin can hold on to current gains in Ukraine and force the latter & its Western backers to negotiate an Armistice that freezes the status quo in place, he can still walk away claiming some sort of “win”. Instead, the Russian command is wasting resources on large offensives that could jeopardize their ability to hold on to current gains later. Then again, nothing about the current invasion has been rational at any level.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: You pretty much summed up what I was thinking reading Tatarigami’s piece.
In my opinion, his greatest weakness is his tendency to attribute his own considerable analytical acumen to the corrupt and dysfunctional Russian strategic decision-making apparatus. If he were integrating political analyses into his—otherwise hugely valuable—reads, he’d also be incorporating into his model Russian political imperatives that work at cross-purposes to the difficult task of strategic optimization under uncertainty.
Such as Gerasimov’s current job being conditioned on his critique of Surovikhin’s “defensive-mindedness” and his concomitant promise to Putin to restore the offensive initiative to Russia, for example. Gerasimov has no political choice but to attack, and this has been obvious from the way that the Russians have misused the vaunted “Surovikhin line,” fighting in front or perpendicularly to it and throwing away the defensive advantages that were the entire point of those months-in-the-makings works.
Putin and the Russian STAVKA’s addled strategic decision-making remain among the most important Ukrainian assets in this war.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: As cold blooded a bastard as Surovikhin is, he is probably the most effective general among the Russian brass right now, & he is an air force guy.
YY_Sima Qian
Tactically, we are still seeing footage of VDV troops charging toward prepared defenses in thin skinned BMDs. Whut?! A greatly way to throw the remaining relatively effective Russian units down the drain.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: It’s the Second Coming of General Joffre’s “Attack a outrance”. More than one WWI military fashion is coming back in style.
Spadizzly
@YY_Sima Qian: Is Surovikin back? I thought that putin sacked him back in August in the aftermath of the failed Wagner putsch.
YY_Sima Qian
@Spadizzly: No, he is still in the dog house, but he has performed the best among the Russia brass so far. That is to Ukraine’s advantage.
TheMightyTrowel
@Adam wanted to add to the thanks – not just from me but from my very offline older colleague to whom I’ve been transmitting your commentary and evaluations of reliable sources since you started with these posts. Listening to him parse the news he consumes from major news orgs (reliable ones fwiw) and comparing it with the insights and source-checking you offer us here is eye-opening. Anyhow, he asked me to ‘thank your friend Adam’ for the information, so consider yourself thanked.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam