Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Battle won, war still ongoing.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Israel is using food as a weapon of war. Unforgivable.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Come on, man.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

If West Virginia and San Francisco had a love child.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more)

Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more)

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Today is the big day we have been waiting for with high hopes and at least some trepidation.  There is a lot at stake in these elections today!

Balloon Juice raised $25,000 for our two candidates in Hampton Roads: Kimberly Pope Adams (HD-82) and Michael Feggans (HD-97).  Both races were rated as tossups, but Pope Adams just moved to Tilt-R and Michael Feggans has moved to Tilt-D.

They are both young, progressive, and African American, and are trying to take the seats back from the Rs who won them in 2021.  We gave it our best shot, now all we can do is wait.

Chaz Nuttycombe has updated ratings and is forecasting Dems getting the narrowest of majorities in the House of Delegates, and losing a state senate seat, but holding the majority in the State Senate.

BlueGuitarist reminded us that most of the Democrats in 2022 Tilt R districts won; so there is still reason to be hopeful.

What’s at stake?

VA – control of the VA House, control of the VA Senate, hopefully stopping Youngkin’s agenda in its tracks

OH – Issue 1 and the right to self-determination for women

Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more) 4

OH – Legalize Marijuana

Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more) 6

PA – Supreme Court seat

This is a good election night

KY – Governor Andy Beshear, the best thing KY has going for it, hopefully keeping his seat

Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more) 3

RI – open US House seat (democratic seat previously held by David Cicilline’s seat)

Gabe Amo has won the #RI01 special election!

MS – Governor of Mississippi, Elvis Presley’s cousin just might have a shot against the awful incumbent

 

VA House Districts  (where the outcome isn’t clear going in)

Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more)

VA Senate Districts  (where the outcome isn’t clear going in)

Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more) 1

Are there other key races that I missed?

Poll closing times (EDT) tonight
6 Most of Kentucky, Indiana
7 Virginia
7:30 Ohio
8 Pennsylvania

Where are your favorite sites to watch results for VA?   OH?  KY?   PA?   MS?

Many thanks to BlueGuitarist for the spreadsheets!  Putting those together was on my to do list today, and he beat me to it.  Gives new meaning to Go Blue!

Open thread.

Reader Interactions

332Comments

  1. 1.

    eclare

    I am really interested in the KY governor’s race, if Beshear wins he is going to get a lot of national attention.

    I am most emotionally invested in the OH referendum, but if prior races offer any clue, it will pass, decisively.

  2. 2.

    WaterGirl

    One more spreadsheet from BlueGuitarist, with a bunch of races around the country.  click on the image for a larger non-blurry version.

    Election Results Watch – All Eyes on VA & OH (and PA and KY and MS and more) 2

    A lot of these are local races, but as we are learning there are no small races.  Every election, for everything, counts these days.

  4. 4.

    eclare

    @WaterGirl:

    Cheating on a state wide race would take a genius plan and massive coordination.  I don’t think the rethuglican party is capable of that.

    Cheating before an election by restricting voting, sure.  But in an actual election, I don’t see it.

    Feel free to ridicule me as naive.

  6. 6.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: well but you see the Democrats cheated FIRST! By … um … having all those people vote who really shouldn’t be voting, for example.  So if they’re going to protect America, the Republicans really have no choice but to cheat.  It’s only fair!

  7. 7.

    japa21

    @eclare: No ridicule, but voter suppression is cheating, and the GOP are pros at that.

    ETA: Didn’t read full comment.  But, I wouldn’t be surprised if cheating hasn’t already occurred.  Ohio threw a bunch of people off the roles with no opportunity to reinstate themselves.

  8. 8.

    Almost Retired

    I would love to see Youngkin get spanked in Virginia.  The buzz on the right seems to be that his bullshit “compromise” on reproductive rights at 15 weeks will undercut the Dobbs vote and be a template for Republicans in 2024.  Have they actually met a woman?  “Mostly but not completely eliminating my reproductive rights seems reasonable so I’ll vote Republican or stay home.”   We’re fucked if they can define 15 weeks as a reasonable compromise.  So we have to win in Virginia!

  10. 10.

    bbleh

    @eclare: or as Stalin purportedly said, what matters is who counts the votes.  Fraudulent in-person voting is so nearly a non-event, and so risky, that it doesn’t matter and never has in recent memory.  But election administration is another matter…

  12. 12.

    WaterGirl

    @eclare: Virginia just kicked thousands of voters off the rolls in the weeks before the election.

    Ohio screwed around with the language for Issue 1 to make it confusing.

    They are creative cheaters, I’ll give them that.

    My mom once accused my two sisters and I of staying up at night to think of ways to make her crazy.  We just laughed, but I do think Rs stay up at night thinking of how to cheat and how to make it harder to vote.

  13. 13.

    H.E.Wolf

    The folks at PostcardsToVoters.org just sent out a bulletin with the number of postcards written and mailed for various campaigns.

    Ohio Issue 1 (Yes vote = pro-choice): 3,949 writers mailed 141,924 postcards.

    Kimberly Pope Adams for VA House of Delegates: 364 writers mailed the entire address list provided to PTV: 7,524 postcards.​

  18. 18.

    eclare

    @bbleh:

    Oh yeah, I know that quote.  So true.  I still don’t see rethuglicans able to pull that off statewide.  Look who they got to try to overturn a federal election.  Leaky hair dye Giuliani?  Sidney “kraken” Powell?

  19. 19.

    Eunicecycle

    @eclare: I agree for the most part, but I think what Republicans did ahead of the Ohio Issue 1 vote was cheating. They first tried to make it so the amendment would have had to get 60% of the vote to pass. We defeated that in a special election. Then the SOS changed the ballot wording, replacing the word “fetus” with “unborn baby.” Then they used a state website to promote lies about the issue, saying teenagers could get abortions without parental consent (not true) and that abortion was allowed up to birth (also not true). They had to lie about the issue because their true position is indefensible

    ETA As others have noted, the SOS took 26,000 voters off the rolls AFTER the deadline to register, so nothing could be done.

  21. 21.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @bbleh:

    what matters is who counts the votes.

    Thousands of dedicated and surprisingly apolitical poll workers.  One thing the 2020 clusterfuck showed me was just how hard it is to interfere with that system.

  23. 23.

    Baud

    @Eunicecycle:

    Then the SOS changed the ballot wording, replacing the word “fetus” with “unborn baby.”

     

    Fools! That’ll just drive blood thirsty liberals to the polls!

  24. 24.

    jonas

    @WaterGirl: Apparently the Moms of all current Republicans never taught them that it’s not winning if you cheat.

    Yeah, but it’s somewhere in the Republican Bible, possibly in Too Corinthians, that if you think you’re right, it’s ok to lie and cheat to achieve your ends.

  25. 25.

    eclare

    @Eunicecycle:

    I agree.  I am not saying what they did before the election was not cheating, all I am saying is that I don’t think they are capable of election day cheating.  That is all.

  27. 27.

    jonas

    @Alison Rose: Probably just outlaw all pregnancy tests of any kind for any reason. Sure, it will probably lead to unintentional abortions when women get chemotherapy or something without knowing they’re pregnant, but hey, as long as sluts are punished…

  31. 31.

    H.E.Wolf

    I missed out on the Kimberly Pope Adams mailing list (it was completed in a flash), but I did write to voters in the following places in Ohio, for Issue 1:

    Akron, Alliance, Amelia, Ashland, Ashtabula, Avon Lake, Beachwood, Bellbrook, Berea, Blacklick, Brook Park, Butler, Centerville, Chillicothe, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Cleveland Heights, Columbus, Dayton, Dublin, East Cleveland, Euclid, Fairborn, Fairview Park, Findlay, Gahanna, Galena, Glouster, Hilliard, Huber Heights, Kent, Lakewood, Louisville, Lyndhurst, Mason, Massillon, Middletown, Mount Sterling, Munroe Falls, North Olmsted, Oak Hill, Oberlin, Parma, Pepper Pike, Perrysburg, Poland, Ravenna, Reynoldsburg, Sheffield Lake, Silver Lake, South Euclid, Springboro, Stow, Strongsville, Terrace Park, Toledo, University Heights, Walbridge, West Chester, Westerville, Willoughby, Xenia, and Youngstown.

    I love city and town names. There’s so much fodder for the imagination. How amazing to live in a city that begins with X!

    Plus, you never know… one of those postcards might tip the balance to “Yes” in a precinct somewhere.

  33. 33.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: @eclare: @Frankensteinbeck:  as to the actual counting, yeah I agree; it’s too transparent and too distributed — just too many people to do anything more than maybe put a light thumb on the scale.  But the larger question of administration has a lot more points of leverage.  Look at what the Youngkin people did and admitted to re registration.  And look at what is done in so many Red states regarding the locations and distribution of polling places.  And then there are the “oopsies” when it comes to distributing ballots.  And THEN there’s all the quasi-legalistic wrangling when it comes to “certification” and whatever other hand-waving is deemed necessary by a very small and often Republican-dominated group of legislators.

    Given the general transparency and complexity of the system, completely negating an election at a state level likely would be almost impossible, but if things were within a few points, some determined monkeying might well tip one.

  34. 34.

    Old School

    If the Democrats don’t sweep, I’m blaming Balloon Juice’s choices in restaurant meeting places.

  35. 35.

    Bill Arnold

    @WaterGirl:
    Yeah, F. LaRose has this as the last paragraph of his Issue 1 summary:

    Always allow an unborn child to be aborted at
    any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability
    if, in the treating physician’s determination, the
    abortion is necessary to protect the pregnant
    woman’s life or health.

    “unborn child” vs “fetus”. (See the PDF)
    That is his translation of this from the actual language (to his preferred rhetoric):

    However, abortion may be prohibited after fetal
    viability. But in no case may such an abortion be
    prohibited if in the professional judgment of the
    pregnant patient’s treating physician it is necessary
    to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.

  41. 41.

    japa21

    @WaterGirl: He’s not Beetlejuice where if you say his name 3 times he shows up.  (Assuming he’s a he, but could be a she). All you have to do is mention Jesus, or just say JFC.

  43. 43.

    WaterGirl

    @BlueGuitarist: I think they just caught up, or at least are close now.  25% in, ant 57-43, for Beshear, of course.  Fingers crossed

    Any idea why the site shows 18 Dem delegates already?  Never mind, those are uncontested races.

  49. 49.

    WaterGirl

    @Old School: I didn’t think he ruined the thread this morning.  Seemed like a lot of folks are done with him.  Starve him of oxygen and maybe he will go away.  These last 2 were a bridge too far.

  53. 53.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    We are recalling our mayor and two city council members over the rehiring of the city manager that was fired after pleading No Contest to shoplifting from the local big box store. She was a known shoplifter to the store and had wrangled a settlement after she was caught shoplifting from the Coos Bay store and the store had somehow screwed it up. This time the store was more careful and nailed her.

    They will probably be recalled but this is a conservative town so who knows, they might be OK with some crime on their side.

  61. 61.

    WaterGirl

    @Omnes Omnibus: At least when we were waiting for the Wisconsin results in the spring, the weather was lovely and I could follow the results while on the screened-in porch.

    Too cold tonight. even though today was lovely.

  69. 69.

    206inKY

    @WaterGirl: Here’s the state page, which is running a little behind the NYT etc: https://vrsws.sos.ky.gov/liveresults/

    Beshear has this in the bag. He’s running way ahead of the Dem candidates for Attorney General and Secretary of State, clearly there was mass ticket splitting in his favor. The Governor race is currently 57/42 for Beshear with 30% (432,000 votes) reported, and the exact opposite ratio in the SoS race in favor of Adams, the Republican.

  74. 74.

    sab

    Ohio polls don’t close until 7:30.  Pilitical folks are expecting results between 9 and 10 p.m.

    Meantime I had a very weird day passing out sample Dem ballots at my polling place. Lots of lost voters (they change the polling places every election and voters are thus confused.) There was a Dem guy in the parking lot on an I-phone helping them because the inside pollworkers were overwhelmed by the volume of voters.

    Also the ballot was tricky, because two three pages ( two sheets of paper) and the two sheets stuck together. So problems in page counts in the machine there that I am sure they can fix tonight when closing out.

    One of the school board members had a volunteer show up that was disappointing. Reflected very badly on the school board member, who it turns out is a secret Republican. Her volunteer eventually admitted she is anti-LGBT and trans tolerant and has her kids in Christian schools to avoid exposing them to confusing influences.  Urk.  So I have changed my mind about partisan identification on school board elections. If the candidate could convince this woman (who doesn’t have kids in public school) that she is so wonderful that she needs to campaign for her then she is not the candidate for me however good her CV. She must have used the magic dogwhistles.

  83. 83.

    Anoniminous

    Reports from Ohio of a massive turn-out. Doesn’t bode well for the Every Sperm Is Sacred brigade.

  84. 84.

    Kathleen

    David Pepper (Blue Ohio) just said Steve Beshear declared winner in Kentucky. I’m on Blue Ohio Watch Party Zoom. ETA Jamie Raskin is about to speak on the call.

  91. 91.

    japa21

    Going to make some predictions. Dems will have a good night in Virginia. Ohio will have positive results. Beshear will win but the rest of the state wide races will go GOP. GOP will sweep Mississippi.
    Main focus will be on how the GOP beat the Dems in MS and the rest will be only mentioned sotto voce

  93. 93.

    Geminid

    @Kathleen: I’m glad Andy Beshear will win a second term. Kentuckians need a good Governor.

    And Beshear’s next term as Governor will end January of 2028. That’s just in time for him to go after Rand Paul’s Senate seat.

  96. 96.

    Manyakitty

    @eclare: I’m in Ohio, so that one worries me, too. Also, we have a local school board race and at least the incumbent Democrat is running, but he put zero effort into it. 🤞🤞

  98. 98.

    Ohio Mom

    Has anyone thought about the effect of Ohio’s recreational marijuana issue on the chances of the abortion rights issue passing? I am wondering if it brought out people who don’t often vote but like their weed and as long as they are there, what the hell, they’ll vote for abortion rights.

    Or maybe it works the other way around?

    It will be interesting to see the final numbers.

  99. 99.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Anoniminous:

    They often run out of bases because people keep stealing them

    Why won’t the catcher catch those miscreants? Isn’t that his job??

  100. 100.

    Kathleen

    @eclare: You’re welcome. I see many others beat me to it! Listening to Raskin right now. My OH#! congressman Greg Landsman is on the call and he said if Democratic turnout is high in OH#1 and it was, he thinks Issue 1 has good chance of passing.

  103. 103.

    dkinPa

    @H.E.Wolf:  I did 10 postcards for Kimberly Pope Adams in VA, then went back and wrote a bunch for Ohio.  Keeping fingers crossed for tonight.  Yay for Andy Beshear in KY!  Hope it’s a good omen for the rest of the night.

  109. 109.

    BethanyAnne

    I dunno, that trolling this morning was pathetic. I kept waiting for cudlip to appear to show him how it’s done.

  111. 111.

    Jeffro

    @eclare: I know, I was just thinking the same thing.  =)

    2028 is light-years away, though.  Best just to keep our heads down and work hard through next November!

  112. 112.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    Beshear victory bodes ill for Democrats in 2024. -°NYTimes, maybe…

  113. 113.

    billcoop4

    MSNBC still not calling Kentucky because Kornacki wants to tribute Beshear after edging and Joy Ann is going all Middle East…….FFS

     

    BC

  115. 115.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    Wasserman further says that Rs in Kentucky had a turnout/enthusiasm problem.

    I’m hoping other states tonight also go the right way for the Ds. To me, that’s a better indication than polls of what to expect next year.

  124. 124.

    Kathleen

    Turnout in Hamilton County was 50%, which was higher than August election turnout. Count for early voting underway. Ohio counts those before the day of votes.

  125. 125.

    Dagaetch

    The probability of a cascade of elite opinion against Biden is growing higher. Thought David Alexrod testing the waters the other night was significant. Good for Biden that Democrats did well in Kentucky tonight because it might buy them some time and the time frame is limited. https://t.co/NlGnsUZJJ5
    — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2023

    OMG Nate shut up, no one outside of your little bubble cares about elite opinions.​

  126. 126.

    sab

    @Ohio Mom: While passing out Dem sample ballots today we had a very persuasive Yes Issue 2 guy show up. I had already voted yes because I don’t much care and my husband and stepson do a lot.

    This young man persuaded me. Kay will be disapointed. Their election slogan was “Regulate marijuana like alcohol.” So teenagers will not get more grass than they can get now. Also, so legal age will be 21, same as booze. Can grow plants at home? Yes, but limited number and not outside (that disappointed me- inside the cats will eat it.) No new growers for two years, so they can get a handle on enforcing compliance unlike every state that rushed into compliance.

    This seems sensible to me. I haven’t done weed since high school 50 years ago, but I never much saw the ‘problem’ justifying the draconian solutions.

    Current Ohio law has a lot of odd and often absurd restrictions on advertising legal weed. No music. No pictures of the plants, just the products.

  127. 127.

    Alison Rose

    Some lady named Janet Porter standing in front of some trees posted a video on Twitter about Issue 1, saying “You know what’s at stake: Abortion till birth, child mutilation, and child trafficking, all without parental notice or consent. That’s why we need to vote no to the nightmare. Vote no on Issue 1, because a stadium full of children’s lives depend on it.”

    Dude responded with: “Go get lost in the woods, Karen. Issue 1 will pass with such high numbers it’s gonna make your shriveled up heart spin.”

    Sometimes I like people.

  129. 129.

    dkinPa

    @Alison Rose:

    abortion is doing significantly better than marijuana

    This is a sentence I’d like to send back in time a few hundred years to see what they make of it.

    LOL!  Heck, send it back in time 40-50 years!

  130. 130.

    WaterGirl

    @Kathleen:

    ETA Just this morning the media were touting this as “tight race” LOL!

    Of course they were.  Who knew 10 or 20 years ago that the media would lose the plot and forget what their role is.  To be the 4th estate.

  133. 133.

    Kathleen

    @Frankensteinbeck: I think Wasserman did (per upthread post). Per NYT Beshear currently leading 53.1 to 46.9. He’s winning 2 out of 3 NoKY counties, which are the counties that pushed him over the finish line.

  136. 136.

    206inKY

    Still a lot of rural counties yet to report but also some large pockets of blue. Nothing yet from Daviess or Warren County which should both go for Andy. I’m holding my breath as it tightens but still feeling good.

    Door knocking in 2019 was completely different than 2023. Back then, Andy had to claw out every vote. That election hinged on Bevin’s attempted gutting of the teacher retirement system. This time Andy relentlessly pounded on Dobbs, and specifically the lack of exceptions for race, incest, and life of the mother. It was not a soft campaign of running away from the Democratic party, but it was focused.

    The common thread in both 2019 and 2023 was running against extremism.

    He gave Republicans zero ammunition running his mouth on secondary issues that could be weaponized against him. What he lacks in charisma he makes up for with discipline, manners, and a willingness to punch really really hard when the time is right.

  138. 138.

    Yarrow

    @Dagaetch: OMG. He is so convinced of his own importance and that of his “elite opinion” buddies. Give me a fucking break. No one cares about elite opinions except other elite opinionators. Maybe he’s really terrified they’re becoming irrelevant and he’s doing his best to keep the money train rolling.

  140. 140.

    Mousebumples

    @H.E.Wolf: I did 5 or 10 for KPA. Not sure how many, but since we did fundraising for her, I wanted to get some out while I could.

    Keeping my fingers crossed for all the races we fundraised and wrote postcards for.

    I’m planning to go through the Bolts list of upcoming elections at some point to try to find more postcarding opportunities.

    Let’s go Blue!

  148. 148.

    billcoop4

    Someone at some point today posted a link to a poll described as reliable which was Biden-favorable. Can someone reshare the link here, please?

     

    BC

  149. 149.

    CaseyL

    TPM just posted that KY-GOV has been “widely called” for Beshear, but I don’t know if that includes any MSM outlets.​

    ETA: DailyKos hasn’t called it so far.

  151. 151.

    Ramona

    I procrastinated on early voting from the time it started in Virginia. The early polling place is a shorter walk from my home than the polling place. I’ve been on a stay up all night-sleep during the day jag for months now. I spent the night in bed reading BJ comments and playing Toyblast. My honey had to go into the office to work today and he stopped outside my bedroom and asked when I planned to vote. It occurred to me to ask him why he was asking. He said if I wanted to, we could walk down and vote before he went to work. We were fuzzy about the exact location of the polling place but saw the Vote Here sign nearby. We went in, presented ID and were told we were in the wrong polling place. A kind woman working there walked us to the building’s back-door and pointed diagonally to another building across the street about 50 yards away. That was OUR polling place. Polling place density in Arlington is worse than Starbucks! The only office on our ballot with a Republican candidate running against the Democrat was the State Senate seat. I was the one who was correct in pointing out that building as our polling place but honey’s hawk eye saw the red-white-blue sign up the street from us and I never dreamed that two polling places would be located so near to one another.

  152. 152.

    Kathleen

    @206inKY: I thought he ran a flawless campaign. I also liked how he didn’t run away from Biden when he visited Ohio/KY to tout infrastructure/Brent Spence project and when Biden responded so quickly with federal aid after fires and floods.

    Local pollster now totally debunking the NYT polling about Biden. Loving this. He said it was a bad poll and they hyped it too much. ETA Pollster is Simon Rosenberg. I’m not familiar with him but he broke everything down beautifully.

  154. 154.

    Princess

    I saw that VanValkenburg is projected to win in the VA senate so that’s one pick up for the good guys (if I am reading this right).

  155. 155.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @CaseyL:

    I’m going to be on edge until the MSM outlets call it, because they don’t want to call it and it’ll make me feel more like Beshear has passed the point of no return on winning.  I hate being this much of a stress basket.  I’m usually one of the most optimistic people here, but when election night comes up I go to pieces.  Blame 2016.

  156. 156.

    Kent

    Just got home from work and turned on MSNBC and logged on here.

    Kornacki says KY is still too close to call but Wasserman has already called it.

    Abortion rights are passing by 62% with 19% in

    I guess I gotta get caught back up with all this

    NYT front page seems like the easiest site to track the big elections.  At least from what I’ve seen.

  157. 157.

    Jeffro

    With Beshear winning in deep-red KY after he ran on reproductive rights and the GOP tried to paint him as pro-tranny-tran-tran-trans, I wonder if they’ll drop that like they did “the war on woke” and go full-on with INFLATION!!1! and CRIME!!1!!!1

    (and if they do, I can only hope Biden/Harris’ response is…”we brought down inflation and both crime and inflation are coming down…what’s YOUR plans?”)

  159. 159.

    mac

    I am trying not to freak out about the Ohio issues. Fingers crossed for both issue one and my local county level issue (some Repubs trying to restructure the county government).

    I heard an interesting tidbit about Issue 2. If it passes, the courts don’t want to actually expunge marijuana charges against those convicted, but instead will give those people first dibs on getting a license to sell it. I do not know nearly enough about how they’re going to regulate this to know if it’s accurate or not, but as someone who works in court-tracking software I’m currently wavering between “oh, good, less coding headaches in Ohio” and “wtf, how does that make any sense?”

  160. 160.

    CaseyL

    @Frankensteinbeck:  Yeah.  Gonna be a long time before we recover from that one… if we ever do.

    2004 was a bad one, too.  I remember going into work the next day, and even though I didn’t work at the time for a particularly liberal company (Weyerhaeuser), the atmosphere was funereal.

  162. 162.

    sab

    @Nina: Yay. That is rehab or restitution or whatever…People believe you and what you said.  Plus believe you will do  what you agreed to do what work you agreed to do ahead. That is also politics, and you won a big step.

  165. 165.

    Alison Rose

    @schrodingers_cat: Still deciding, LOL. I found a 60-pack of Prismacolor for a decent price. I did see the 72-pack but it’s much more expensive. I looked up the Staedtler ones, but I noticed they don’t appear to have the color name printed on the barrel. I don’t know if the kiddo is annoyed by that like I am, though, LOL.

  166. 166.

    WaterGirl

    @BethanyAnne: I thought their role was to get clicks, make money writing tell-all books, 5 years too late to make any difference, and to support authoritarians and nihilists.

    But I will also support To predict Red WAAAAAAVES™?

  169. 169.

    Anoniminous

    Dems keep RI-1 House Seat.  Not that anybody of any sense expected any thing different.

  171. 171.

    Brit in Chicago

    @japa21: Gerrymandering is also cheating in my book, although apparently permitted by the Constitution, and the Republicans are pros at that too (though some D-controlled states are also pretty good at it…).

  173. 173.

    Bupalos

    Stick a fork in that zygote in Ohio. We’re crushing it.

    Making we wish it had been saved for 2024.

  174. 174.

    Barbara

    @Jeffro: ​The spectacular failure of transphobia in Michigan does not seem to have stopped the train elsewhere. I honestly think these people have so internalized their hatred they just think they need to shout louder and more clearly to get through. As with abortion they cannot imagine that people genuinely disagree with them.

  179. 179.

    Jeffro

    @Barbara: someone needs to explain democracy to them: you can shout louder all you want, but it doesn’t get you any extra votes.

    I do wonder what it’s like to be on the unpopular side of EVERY issue.  No wonder they yell so much!

  180. 180.

    Baud

    I hear that Ohio is voting in favor of giving unborn children weed up until the moment of birth.  Good job, Buckeyes!

  181. 181.

    206inKY

    Kentucky is giving ulcers right now mainly since Jefferson County (Louisville) is stuck at 33% reporting as all the rurals pour in. But still very little from Warren (Bowling Green) and nothing from Daviess (Owensboro), plus 66% of Jefferson outstanding. Nothing from Bullitt County either which should lean Andy.

  182. 182.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Ramona: ​

    I have been in doubt this cycle that a Black man, even a Republican, could be voted Governor in Kentucky.

    I literally only found out the governor election was this year when my mother texted me with early voting place suggestions. I thought it was 2024. I didn’t know who the Republican was and didn’t care. So I only just found out he’s black when you commented that and I went to look.
    As a Kentucky resident, I 100% agree.

  183. 183.

    Alison Rose

    Huzzah! Abortions for everyone!

    I’ve seen enough: in a victory for the pro-choice side, Ohio Issue 1, a measure to establish a right to an abortion in the state constitution, passes.
    — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 8, 2023

  184. 184.

    Mousebumples

    @H.E.Wolf: no worries! Thank you for being so supportive of postcarding! I hope you’re feeling better and ready to write… Whatever the next campaign may be. 🤩

  185. 185.

    Percysowner

    @Bupalos: ​ Well, National Republicans have to tell their base that they will pass a national ban on abortion to get nominated, so I expect 2024 will have some reason to bring the same people out again.

    Plus the Transphobes will be out in force in 24 and that may pull the younguns out again

    My big hope for next year is that Sherrod Brown can pull an Andy Beshear. I don’t think Ohio will go D for President, but Sherrod has pulled the rabbit out of the hat before, so maybe?
    ​

  186. 186.

    sab

    @sab: I dearly wish had had given a fraction of the thought to legalizing weed as we have given to legalizing gambling.

    Weed might (might only, not wiil) fuck up one life. Gambling does so much more damage.

  194. 194.

    Mousebumples

    @Bupalos: Making we wish it had been saved for 2024.

     

    @Alison Rose: Huzzah! Abortions for everyone!

    And I hope Sen. Brown and his campaign is putting together lists of voters to reach out to next year for his reelection.

    I’ll write postcards for him! And for Sen. Baldwin (lol, ofc, Wisconsin 👋), but I’d love to keep that great Dem Senator representing Ohio.

  195. 195.

    Dan B

    @CaseyL: I did big landscape projects for three of the Weyerhaeuser kids.  They were characters.  One of the projects won a top national award.  They were conservative but only mildly so.

  196. 196.

    Geminid

    @Anoniminous: Rhode Island’s new Congressman, Gabe Amo, is 36 years old. He worked on Joe Biden’s White House staff before running for Congress. Before that, Mr. Amo had worked for Governor Gina Raimondo and on several political campmains.

    Amo’s father is from Ghana and his mother immigrated from Liberia. They met in Rhode Island.

  199. 199.

    Anonymous At Work

    @mrmoshpotato: Sarcasm about how badly the media does their jobs at evaluating events.  Off-year election with Democratic incumbent should tend hard Republican but it’s not.

  205. 205.

    H.E.Wolf

    @Layer8Problem: ​Thanks for that link to electoral-vote.com a few posts back. I have a few people I’ll be sending that to./p>

     Glad you liked it! I really appreciate that site.

    The two bloggers, V and Z (their actual names are linked in the FAQ page on the website), are slightly different temperaments.

    V usually writes the Monday and Thursday blog posts, and is slightly more pessimistic than Z, who writes Tues/Wed/Fri. My personal opinion is that Z, being a historian, is more likely to take the long (and more optimistic) view.

    They collaborate on the Saturday Q&A, and on the Sunday Mailbag.

  206. 206.

    Kathleen

    @206inKY:  He was ahead in Kenton County with large percentage of returns reported. He is also ahead in Campbell but behind in Boone. CW says he has to win No KY counties.

  207. 207.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Eolirin: ​
     

    We need Tester as well, which I think is an even bigger lift. Unless we can snipe Florida or Texas somehow.

    My predictometer ain’t worth a damn these days, but it does look like control of the Senate will come down to whether Tester can hold onto his Senate seat.

  209. 209.

    CaseyL

    @Dan B: 

    Small world!

    I don’t know much about the Weyerhaueser kids. None of them were running the company anymore; I think George Jr. had some peripheral role (maybe on the Board) but otherwise the actual Weyerhaeusers were just portraits hanging on the walls of the top floor.

  213. 213.

    japa21

    Big batch of votes from Louisville just came in boosting Beshear’s lead. I am now calling it for Beshear.

  214. 214.

    Kathleen

    HOLY CRAP!!!!!  Issue 1 won in Clermont County, traditionally heavily Republican suburb of Cincinnati. I. Am. Shocked. Didn’t know Wasserman called it. David Pepper is on Chris Hayes now.

  216. 216.

    H.E.Wolf

    @Mousebumples: ​ Thanks for your kind words! I’m feeling great. The mini finger splint is doing its assigned job, which is to get in the way of everything, but that’s very minor in the grand scheme of things. :)

    I’m hoping that PTV’s FL Vote By Mail postcard project will be chugging along during the winter. As soon as I’m liberated from splintville by my occupational therapist, I’ll be back on my bullsh… excuse me, my postcarding.

    ETA: You deserve a major share of the BJ postcard-party credit! How you do it, with the little bumples to take care of, is pretty impressive.​

  217. 217.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Geminid:

    The whole thing with Beshear is that thanks to Bevin, Kentuckians saw how administrative incompetence can hurt them, so they had to vote in a Democrat in that one position.  Every other position happens far enough out of sight that they can continue to focus solely on hate.

  218. 218.

    Alison Rose

    @Kathleen: I know nothing about David Pepper, except that one time about a decade ago, out here in California, I saw a car in a grocery store parking lot with one of his bumper stickers that said “Just add Pepper!” with a little pepper shaker, and I thought “If this man is a Democrat I would vote for him no matter what”. I took a photo of it just as the car owner walked up, and I had to explain I wasn’t a creep, I just liked the sticker, and she seemed to believe me, thankfully.

  220. 220.

    Jeffro

    Btw a friend of a friend (an R) just lost his VA House race, so that’s that!

    (I think it was ever-so-slightly “lean D” in that district)

    The guy was nice but he was a pretty Standard Modern Wingnut, so, no points for good manners and affability a la Youngkin.  Down you go, friend of a friend!

  222. 222.

    wjca

    @Baud: Too old! (Referring to the new, 36 year old, Rhode Island congressman)

    There really is a simple solution.  The Constitution says the minimum age to be a Congressman is 25, to be a Senator is 30, to be President is 35.  So all we need is an “up or out” clause:

    If you’re a Congressman, when you hit 30 you either run for the Senate or retire.  If you’re a Senator, when you hit 35 you either run for President or retire.  Of course, of you’re President, you’re good whatever your age — since there’s no “up” available.

  229. 229.

    206inKY

    @Kathleen: Those Cincy suburbs were crucial and now it looks like he’s keeping it close enough all the way down I-65 from Louisville to Bowling Green. The gigantic factory under construction just off the freeway by Elizabethtown was a pretty good advertisement.

  236. 236.

    Almost Retired

    Just checked the NYT site.  Our Virginia candidates are very close, but lots of outstanding votes.  And I don’t know enough about Virginia to know what areas report first.  I’m a bit worried about Kim with 75% in and more than a 1% gap in Bad Kim’s favor.  But…again…I don’t know where they report first.  This district has more rural areas than Michael’s, so maybe the red spots came in first.  Will choose between chewing fingernails or pouring more chardonnay in the meantime.

  239. 239.

    WaterGirl

    @MobiusKlein: We feel really good about Andy Beshear staying on as governor in KY.

    We feel pretty damn good about Ohio Issue 1 – Wasserman has “seen enough” – but there is no formal call yet.

    The Rhode Island guy running for US House seat to replace a Dem who left has kept the seat blue.

    As far as I can tell, that’s what we know so far.

    Not enough votes counted in VA to tell us anything yet.

  242. 242.

    Mousebumples

    @H.E.Wolf: Thanks for your kind words! I’m feeling great. The mini finger splint is doing its assigned job, which is to get in the way of everything, but that’s very minor in the grand scheme of things. :)

    I’m hoping that PTV’s FL Vote By Mail postcard project will be chugging along during the winter. As soon as I’m liberated from splintville by my occupational therapist, I’ll be back on my bullsh… excuse me, my postcarding.

    ETA: You deserve a major share of the BJ postcard-party credit! How you do it, with the little bumples to take care of, is pretty impressive.​

    I think the FL VBM is usually a standard for PtV, with momentary breaks when they need to update messaging and get a new list of voters to contact.

    And thank you for the kind words, as well. Postcarding helps me work off nervous energy and Do Something, even if I’m a few states away. Thankfully, the little bumples are pretty good sleepers, so it’s a good after bedtime activity.

  243. 243.

    WaterGirl

    @Alison Rose: Yeah, and I don’t think any of us know enough about the areas to know whether they have counted more blue areas or more red areas, etc.

    I am starting to feel anxious about VA.  I would like more information, please. NOW!

  251. 251.

    Geminid

    @Anoniminous: He’s no Squaddie. In the primary, Gabe Amo finished ahead of a former state legislator who was considered the “Progressive” hope. Some very liberal reporters had a big sad about that. Former Rep. Patrick Kennedy campaigned for Amo in the closing days of the election.

  256. 256.

    Percysowner

    @Kathleen: ​I know Columbus had a pretty big turnout. When my daughter voted at 7:30 a.m. it took an hour to get through. She thought going in that early would be fast, but people were really showing up.

  259. 259.

    Almost Retired

    @WaterGirl:   Good Kim just pulled a few points ahead of Forced Birth Kim with 75% of the vote reporting.  So maybe the urban areas are coming in late?

  266. 266.

    206inKY

    The most shocking thing for me about these Kentucky results is that Beshear won a slew of Eastern Kentucky counties deep in the mountains. Breathitt, Perry, Wolfe, Letcher, Floyd, Magoffin, Knott. None have more than 10,000 votes, but that’s pretty much the deepest red you can find in KY beyond the Confederate counties along the Tennessee border. This is like the ghost of LBJ making a comeback.

  267. 267.

    Ohio Mom

    @Kathleen: Clermont County?! Wow.

    For those of you who aren’t familiar with southwestern Ohio, Clermont County is where Mean Jean Schmidt is from. Not an area exactly known for being forward thinking.

  268. 268.

    Suzanne

    Things are looking good here in PA so far! We have a state Supreme Court race, lots of County races, Philly mayor, etc.

  269. 269.

    H.E.Wolf

    @lowtechcyclist: ​My predictometer ain’t worth a damn these days, but it does look like control of the Senate will come down to whether Tester can hold onto his Senate seat.
    @WaterGirl: ​@lowtechcyclist: We are going to be helping with that fundraising-wise. Four Directions plans to work with the native vote in Montana. 

    AWESOME!I’m fired up and ready to go.​

  270. 270.

    WaterGirl

    The blurb at the top of the NYT results page for VA.

    Gov. Glenn Youngkin isn’t on the ballot, but Virginia’s elections for 140 seats in the state legislature are very much about his future. If Republicans can wrest the 40-seat Senate from Democratic hands — giving the G.O.P. control of the state government for the first time since 2013 — it will burnish Mr. Youngkin’s image as a presidential contender in 2028, or even 2024. He has said that he will decide whether to make a bid later this month.

  274. 274.

    Mousebumples

    Re Virginia I’m heading Danica Roem flipped a Senate seat and the sex-positive candidate the GOP tried to revenge porn out of the race (or whatever that craziness was) might have a shot at winning?

    All from Bluesky, so not as easy to share here…

  276. 276.

    lowtechcyclist

    @WaterGirl:

    We are going to be helping with that fundraising-wise.  Four Directions plans to work with the native vote in Montana.

    Cool! Will be chipping in, and should have time to write postcards too – gotta saddle up my pygmy pony, ride into the dawn of Montana, and help win this thing!

  277. 277.

    Baud

    Although not a surprise at this point, it’s nice to see that women aren’t rolling over.  Men sure wouldn’t.

  279. 279.

    Mousebumples

    @WaterGirl: We are going to be helping with that fundraising-wise. Four Directions plans to work with the native vote in Montana.

    Yay, Four Directions! Hopefully they’ll continue their great work in Arizona too, to help Gallego take Sinemas’s seat.

  282. 282.

    Kathleen

    @Ohio Mom: Slight correction – evidently all results for Clermont County are not in (I jumped the gun) but still even for the issue to be ahead there is a miracle!  But I am so excited! ETA: I will be interested to see results for the city issues, school board, etc. I’m hoping 22 will pass but I’m not optimistic.

  291. 291.

    Kathleen

    @206inKY: Beshear really showed up during the flood and the fire. He was there, he made sure people knew who could help them, and he displayed so much empathy and love for the state it was palpable. I think his grandparents lived in one of the town affected so he does have roots there. He also didn’t hesitate to praise Biden/FEMA for the quick response. This guy is one talented politician.

  294. 294.

    Barbara

    @Suzanne: ​Urban areas in Virginia greatly lag their lower density counterparts. I measure strength of showing by how late I need to stay up.

  299. 299.

    Princess

    This is turning out to be a great night for Democrats.

    NYT, probably: Biden lags his popular party. Does this spell doom for 2024?

  305. 305.

    Anoniminous

    So far the GREAT REPUBLICAN WAVE™ consists entirely of flipping the mayoral seat of Manchester NH.

  306. 306.

    rekoob

    @Mousebumples: The race between David Owen (R) and Susanna Gibson (D) in the 57th District is Owen with a margin of 24 votes with 15 out of 17 precincts reporting. (Early Vote/Provisionals not yet counted.)

  313. 313.

    Kathleen

    @Ohio Mom: We ended up losing Clermont County but by a much smaller margin than we normally do! We’re ahead in Warren County now! It will be interesting to see how that turns out. People on the call are comparing voting patterns between race tonight and August.

  314. 314.

    Mousebumples

    @rekoob: The race between David Owen (R) and Susanna Gibson (D) in the 57th District is Owen with a margin of 24 votes with 15 out of 17 precincts reporting. (Early Vote/Provisionals not yet counted.)

    Sounds like we won’t get those results until tomorrow, then. I’ll keep my fingers crossed!

    @Omnes Omnibus: Between Counsell to the Cubs, and the underwhelming (super young) Packers, I’m more focused on Giannis + Dame, this season, I think.

  316. 316.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Mousebumples: Understanable, but I am not giving up on the Packers.*

    *Actually, at the start of the season, my brother and I figured they would be between 10-7 and 7-10 and that there was no way to be more precise.

  320. 320.

    Gin & Tonic

    @WaterGirl:

    The Rhode Island guy running for US House seat to replace a Dem who left has kept the seat blue.

    His name is Gabe Amo. He is the son of immigrants from Ghana and Liberia, and will be the first Black Congressman from R.I. The result isn’t very surprising, as RI CD-1 is very Democratic, but it’s pleasant.

  321. 321.

    Mousebumples

    @Omnes Omnibus: maybe if they’re bad this year, I can jump a few thousand up on the season ticket waiting list. I’m at like 10k on the list now, so… It could happen?

  326. 326.

    Dan B

    @CaseyL: I worked for Flip (Phillip III) and Clara, WIz (Elizabeth) and Howie, then Ann and Jack.  Ann was the eldest of the kids.  Ann and Jack had lived in Brentwood.  She hated the climate.

  327. 327.

    Redshift

    @Mousebumples:

    Sounds like we won’t get those results until tomorrow, then. I’ll keep my fingers crossed!

    VPAP.org has it at about 18,000 votes between the two candidates and 12,000 early votes not yet counted! So it could really go either way. (Statewide, I think, early votes were about 60/40 Dem. That doesn’t mean this district is the same, but it bodes well.)

  328. 328.

    Hoppie

    @206inKY: Beshear family’s base is the eastern mountains, very deep roots and relationships there.  AND both pere et fils have come through for them.  That goes a long way in small communities.

    (See how I showed my elite snobbery?)

  329. 329.

    Kathleen

    Cincinnati had City Council, Board of Education and Judgeships plus 3 issues. I’ll have to see if we sell the railroad. I think that one will lose. The only people who ran for Council are incumbents (+1 for the 9th seat) ; 8 of the 9 are Democrats and the 1 not Democrat is not bat crap crazy is seems pretty decent but I voted for the Democrat.

  330. 330.

    Ramona

    @Barbara: Thanks for this great link, Barbara!

    Haven’t read the recent comments so maybe somebody has already reported but as of 9:50 pm, good Kim vs bad Kim (incumbent) in 82nd district with 86% counted is ahead 12,812 to 12,030. The original post IIRC had this at tilt R. So nail-biting time.

Comments are closed.