All we know for sure is — *somebody* better fix this, quick!
Of American voters who DISAPPROVE of Biden on Israel-Palestine, per NYT/Siena poll, some think Biden is too supportive of Israel, some think he's too supportive of the Palestinians, but more think his level of support is about right.
Yes, that's disapprovers saying "about right." pic.twitter.com/0mkiHVTN6g— Nicholas Grossman (@NGrossman81) December 19, 2023
The American voter has two simple asks on Middle Eastern policy:
1.) An end to costly military interventions in a far away land of which they know little and care about even less
2.) A swift, flaming death to our enemies pic.twitter.com/vUgNCXTJeI
— Open Source Stupidity (OSSTU) Starfish (@IRHotTakes) December 17, 2023
Baud
Not even 1930s Germans were this dumb.
marklar
Back in the 90’s, I remember reading a poll that found higher approval ratings for Hillary Clinton than for Hillary Rodham Clinton. The interpretation was that the inclusion of “Rodham” triggered the fragility of people opposed to feminism.
So much for polls.
Old School
I would imagine most of those people disapprove of Biden on <tunes out rest of question>.
SpaceUnit
I’m done with polls. Surveys that only tap into the 6 or 7 percent of people who answer calls from unknown numbers in 2023 aren’t going to be worth much.
Also I pulled that 6 or 7 percent figure right out of my ass.
Baud
In other news, 34 percent of people concerned about Biden’s age think he’s too young.
mrmoshpotato
Open Source Stupidity
Yeah, that about sums up most Americans’ knowledge of foreign affairs.
satby
Colorado Supreme Court rules Trump disqualified to be on the ballot due to inciting an insurrection, as per 14th Amendment.
Ah, I see it was mentioned in the previous thread
Mousebumples
@satby: just saw that myself. It’ll be interesting to see where this goes from here…
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@satby:
I can just imagine the shitstorm this is going to lead to with the GOP/Trump world. Trump was never going to win Colorado anyway, but I’m sure little glass bottles of ketchup are going to be flying into walls even more than usual
Baud
@satby:
It’ll force the US Supreme Court to decide the question.
dmsilev
@Baud: Another couple of decades and he’ll have enough experience for the job.
Poe Larity
Joe needs to do something about everyones attitude.
WaterGirl
I’m not sure which is worse.
That 22% of the people who disagree with Biden on Israel-Palestine
OR
That 43% of the people who disagree with Biden on Israel-Palestine don’t know whether he is too supportive of Israel, too supportive of Palestinians, or if they think Biden is doing it just about right!
(19+16+22 = 57%, so that leaves 43%)
dmsilev
@satby: Right now, as we speak, Ron deSantis is preparing a brief to the Supreme Court in favor of disqualifying Trump. It’s pretty much the only chance he has in the primary.
Alison Rose
@Baud: I’ll just note: We have never had a Centenarian-American president. Where’s that DEI liberals love so much???
Redshift
Well, to be fair, there are other things to disapprove of besides the level of support.
But they’re probably things like “if he’d done things differently, it would be solved already,” so…
Anonymous At Work
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It’ll depress turnout among Republicans. Boebert would be toast, in CO, for example.
Uncle Cosmo
Alongside the fact that any poll results in the media these days are almost certain (p<0.001) to be designed as pushpolls or clickbait or both, and released to the public for those purposes. From many years of experience as an applied statistician, I say (in the memorable words of the late great e.f. goldman) fuck ’em.
@SpaceUnit:
SpaceUnit
@satby:
I’m concerned that this may give the trumpers an opening to ask the Supreme Court to invalidate Colorado’s election results and toss our electoral college votes.
You know they’re going to try.
Old School
Close up pictures of Uranus.
<Insert joke here.>
satby
@Baud: yes. Which should be interesting. Wonder if the purchasers of the court would prefer to be rid of tfg without getting their hands dirty.
Baud
@dmsilev:
@Alison Rose:
If Biden loses, he can come back in 2028 just like Trump did.
#SpreadTheMeme
Ken
@Alison Rose: Made me look. George HW Bush was the oldest at death, age 94. Carter may become the first to reach 100.
Tony G
@SpaceUnit: Seriously. Phone polls have probably been useless for at least 20 years. I still have a land-line (unlike my Millennial sons and every other “youngster” under 40 that I know) but, like everyone else, it’s been the case for years that about 99% of the calls to my phone are spammers. That being the case, I never pick up the phone unless it’s from someone who I know. So who is responding to these phone polls? People who are ninety years old and don’t know what spam is?
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl: I hate the cycle we’re in now. The media has convinced the populace that Biden is BAD. Even though he’s very good.
He was able to win last time because the media hadn’t had a chance to trash him the way they trashed Hillary.
zhena gogolia
@dmsilev: Today a normie said to me, “I don’t think Trump is going to run.”
WHAAAA? She didn’t even know he was a candidate.
I don’t know if that’s a good sign or a bad sign.
Martin
@Baud: That’s a very dangerous thing for Trump. If he loses, there’s all kinds of ramifications. Not only can other states move to remove him from the ballot, but it would also hold that he’s ineligible to hold office, which Congress could take up as an action by throwing his electoral votes out, which would be a consequence of the congressional election, since the next congress would be taking up the matter.
CO only removed him from the primary ballot, but the SOS would now have grounds to remove him from the general election ballot.
Very high stakes.
Old School
@WaterGirl:
33% approved and 11% didn’t know/respond.
Full poll.
Alison Rose
@Ken: I meant in office.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Anonymous At Work:
That’s a very good point, I didn’t think of that
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: I honestly do not understand how people are THIS disconnected from reality. Like, I get not being as sunk down into as many of us are, but like…how do you even manage to be this unaware of literally everything happening in the country?
SpaceUnit
@Uncle Cosmo:
Yeah, I think part of it is just a lot of horserace fuckery. But I think it’s also the fact that pollsters just aren’t reaching a wide swath of the voters. The methodology is flawed, and they have no way to correct for it.
Martin
@Tony G: They’re not useless, but there are a lot of asterisks around them. At no time were polls a year out worth jack shit. Ever.
The problem isn’t the phone issue, but we really don’t have a very good sense of who is likely to vote, and that breaks things pretty badly when the electorate is so strongly divided. There’s damn near nobody that is undecided, but there are a lot of people that aren’t reliable voters because that’s now how you express being undecided – anti-Trump republicans aren’t going to vote for Biden, they just aren’t going to vote. So the LV models are busted. Getting them on the phone is the least of the problem.
Brachiator
@Baud:
On some key issues, the Court likes to defer to the states. It will be interesting to see if the conservative justices do somersaults to rule in favor of Trump.
Splitting Image
@WaterGirl:
On the plus side, this is a very good explanation for Donald Trump’s wide appeal.
Much like the poll respondents, Trump is too stupid to know what should be done about Israel and Palestine, or much else that is going on in the world, but everybody knows that he hires people to “fix things”.
Take Michael Cohen, for example. He was a long-time employee of Trump whose job description was more or less to “fix things”. Jared Kushner filled this role during most of Trump’s administration. When something came to Trump’s desk that needed “fixing”, Trump moved it to Kushner’s desk and considered it “fixed”. As long as the problem disappeared from the headline news, poll respondents would generally agree that Trump’s decisive action fixed the problem.
Of course, this could never work for a Democrat because the news headlines will somehow never let a problem get off of the front pages when a Democrat is in charge. Even if a problem doesn’t exist, they’ll harp on about it for months and years. Weak-willed dithering by the spineless Democrats must be making it worse. How could it not be? Look how quickly things got fixed when Trump was in charge!
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: I think this particular person was so traumatized by Trump’s presidency that she just avoids all news. I can sort of sympathize.
gene108
I really like how insightful the second X post is.
@marklar:
I remember the conservative backlash to her going by Hillary Rodham Clinton, and she represented the end of something or other regarding traditional marriage.
Now there’s Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Amy Coney Barrett, etc. and no one cares.
She doesn’t get enough credit for breaking down barriers as First Lady and as Gov. Clinton’s spouse, with her own career, in 1992.
Ken
@Alison Rose: I thought that’s what you meant. I was noting that so far we haven’t picked anyone who made it to the century mark, whether or not they were in office.
SpaceUnit
@Tony G:
Yes, people who grew up with rotary phones and no caller ID and who became accustomed to just picking up the phone whenever it rings.
Last time I answered a call from an unknown number was when I was expecting an appliance to be delivered. Otherwise never.
Brachiator
@zhena gogolia:
I think it is a bad sign.
Mousebumples
Job hunting for me. But yes.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Brachiator:
To be fair, that’s just one person she knows. And it’s still a year out
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@zhena gogolia: hearing a lot of that on the podcasts I should stop listening to. One theory, that I find plausible, is that Biden’s numbers will improve once people realize that the other choice is (almost certainly) trump.
Splitting Image
@Martin:
As a data point, Walter Mondale was leading Reagan in polls throughout 1983. Reagan only pulled even at around this time and began pulling ahead as primary season started. 1984 was not a close election at all.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I agree and I think that’s plausible too. It’s still too far out for a lot of people to be paying attention
Brachiator
@gene108:
I think she wants to remind people of her connection to her politician father Mike Huckabee.
Also, she doesn’t want people to think she is married to that fried chicken guy, Colonel Sanders.
Captain C
@Martin: What would happen if he ran a (probably half-assed and grifty) write in campaign and won in states where he was off the ballot? I would also imagine this could exacerbate some divides in the GQP
ETA: This applies to both the primaries and the general.
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
They are plastic now, with squeeze lids,…….
Steeplejack
@Martin:
“So the LV models are busted.”
LV = likely voters?
mrmoshpotato
@Brachiator:
Oh?
Miss Bianca
@Martin: *Some* anti-Trump Republicans may vote for Biden…but I very much doubt whether
mostany of them would admit it.Another Scott
@Old School: Followed your link and it seems weird to me the way they presented the questions and results:
As you indicate, what they seem to be doing is:
There are 21+36 = 57% of their entire group that says they disapprove. When only those people are asked the follow-up, why?, then 19% of the entire group says he’s too supportive of I, 16% of the entire group says he’s too supportive of P, 22% of the entire group says he’s about right (but they don’t support him…).
Of course, those who approve of Biden just blindly go along with him and have no opinion about whether he should modify the weighting of his approach, amirite??!
It’s a really strange way to segregate the answers.
Plus, we all know that RVs are not the same as LVs, so who knows how they massaged their universe of people (and I’m not interested enough to look at the cross-tabs).
FWIW.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@SpaceUnit:
@SpaceUnit:
In October 2022, FTFNYT’s polling calls yielded completed responses 0.4% of the time.
There’s too much magic sauce applied to the raw numbers to trust them – especially this far out.
Cheers,
Scott.
Citizen Alan
@Another Scott: Actually, this makes sense to me. I could easily imagine 22% or so being so nativist and isolationist that they think that Biden is wrong for being involved at all (basically, a pox on both their houses). Indeed, a lot of Trump voters probably feel that way. These are the idiots who want us out of NATO after all.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Until there’s a criminal conviction for that insurrection or some other inarguable finding of fact, I think the Supremes should overturn the ruling. Saying a criminal defendant who was a previous office holder can’t hold office because of unresolved accusations will lead us to dangerous places. Don’t imagine for a minute Republicans wouldn’t rush to weaponize this.
Yes, regrettably, Trump should be on the ballot for now.
Harrison Wesley
“pah-luh-stin-ian” Yes, I can see the furrowed brow, the face bent over the screen, the lips moving as they pronounce “pah-luh-stin-ian,” the finger moving along under the printed syllables…..these are my fellow Merkans who will be electing a government with the most powerful military in the world. Rock and roll!
Harrison Wesley
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Agree 100%. Absent impeachment or conviction, how has anybody proved he incited anything?
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Harrison Wesley: A confession would work.
Timill
@Harrison Wesley: The lower court held that he had.
SpaceUnit
@Another Scott:
Sweet Jesus, that’s worse than I thought.