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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 678: Russia Bombards Ukraine Again Shortly After Dawn

War for Ukraine Day 678: Russia Bombards Ukraine Again Shortly After Dawn

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Screen shot of painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a grey border. On the left is a Ukrainian apartment block in the background. In the left foreground is an armored forearm and fist blocking incoming Russian rockets and missiles. The Russian rockets and missiles are red and have the "Z" symbol on them. The backgound is black. Above the armored arm and fist, written in white, is "Every Single Day in Ukraine."

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russian opened up again on Ukraine shortly after dawn this morning. As in past attacks, the targets were predominantly civilian. Shahed drone swarms came in first followed by missiles, including Kinzhals. There were 99 Russian missiles fired this morning including the 10 Kinzhals, which indicates that, at least for now, Russia does have enough missiles to do this a couple of times a week.

Today, 🇺🇦 Air Force in cooperation with units of the Defense Forces, destroyed 72 russian air targets:
– 10 out of 10 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles;
– 59 out of 70 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles;
– 3 out of 3 Kalibr cruise missiles.

We are grateful to our courageous and talented warriors, as well as international partners who assist us in strengthening our air defense capabilities.
🇺🇦💪

The massive Russian attack on Kyiv and Kharkiv means dozens of injured civilians, residential buildings on fire. Unfortunately, we have casualties. Speaking of war fatigue, it is worth remembering: the enemy is not tired of killing every day. Only force will stop him. 🇺🇦 has fortitude but needs weapon strength.

 

Rescue operations in the aftermath of another Russian strike continue. All the services are working. Over 500 State Emergency Service rescuers, municipal services, energy workers, and police officers.

Kyiv, Kyiv region, and Kharkiv. As of now, 92 people have been reported injured. They are all receiving assistance. Unfortunately, four people were killed. My condolences go out to their families and close ones.

Our air defense warriors have been doing an incredible job for the past three days. Since December 31st, Russian monsters have already fired 170 “Shahed” drones and dozens of missiles of various types. The absolute majority of them targeted civilian infrastructure. I am grateful to all of our partners who are helping us strengthen our air shield. Every day and night, this helps save hundreds of lives that would have been lost if we didn’t have “Patriots” and other defense systems.

This year, we will continue to work with everyone around the world who values life to bolster our air shield and hold Russia accountable for everything it has done. The terrorist state must feel the repercussions of its actions.

 

More on the bombardment after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

It is in Ukraine that we must prove that democracies are capable of protecting life from all forms of terror – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

2 January 2024 – 20:54

Dear Ukrainians!

I have just spoken to Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Rishi Sunak, informing him of the consequences of today’s attack by Russian terrorists. So far this day, almost a hundred missiles of various types have been launched, and the enemy has planned their trajectories to cause as much damage as possible. This is an utterly premeditated terror. And just in the last few days – from December 29 till now – Russia has already used nearly 300 missiles and over 200 “Shahed” drones against Ukraine. No other state has ever repelled such attacks, combined ones: both drones and missiles, including air-launched ballistic missiles. Ten “Kinzhal” missiles have been shot down today alone.

I thank every warrior of our Air Force, every fighter of our mobile firing groups, every anti-aircraft gunner and all those across the globe already helping Ukraine with weapons to protect the skies. More air defense systems, more missiles for air defense is what directly saves lives.

And it is with our defense of the sky here in Ukraine that we must prove that democracies are capable of protecting life from all forms of terror. If we do not do this now in Ukraine, then, unfortunately, Russian terror will continue to spread across Europe and the world. The feeling of impunity among the Russian rulers, formed over decades of their unlimited power, has already caused many deaths and suffering. Russia must learn what accountability for destroying life is and what the power of defending life is.

I am grateful to the UK for its willingness to contribute to our air defense. In addition to defense cooperation and our joint actions in protecting against terror, we discussed with Prime Minister Sunak the work on security commitments for Ukraine and the implementation of the Peace Formula.

Just as our weapons must be long-range enough, so must our diplomacy, our defense of international law and justice be effective enough. This means involving the widest possible range of international actors in our joint work – we are working to ensure that the Peace Formula brings together even more states, and to make security commitments for Ukraine as effective as possible. By the time we end this war, stability and security must be indisputable.

Rescue operations are still underway after the strikes in the morning and afternoon. Rescue teams will work around the clock. All those injured, 130 people in total, are receiving, and will continue to receive, the necessary assistance: Kharkiv and the region, Kyiv and the region, Zaporizhzhia, all affected cities and areas.

As of now, five people have been reported dead as a result of this massive attack. My condolences to everyone who lost their loved ones. May all the victims of Russian terror rest in peace.

And our utmost gratitude – the gratitude of Ukraine – goes out to everyone who is fighting and working to drive the enemy out of our land and to force Russia to end this war. By the way, today I have signed a new decree honoring our warriors with state awards. 115 warriors of the Armed Forces. The 32nd, 54th, 93rd, 110th separate mechanized brigades, the 17th separate tank brigade, the 92nd separate assault brigade, the 39th and 299th tactical aviation brigades. Thank you! Thank you to everyone who embodies the strength of Ukraine!

And, please, pay attention to air raid alerts, these days especially. These savages want to inflict pain on Ukraine. It is imperative to safeguard lives.

Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

Kyiv & Kharkiv:

/4. According to reports of the Ukrainian Air Force, a total of 10 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal were shot down; 59 cruise missiles Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-55; as well as 3 Kalibr missiles.More details about the attack:

«72 AIR TARGETS DESTROYED ON JANUARY 2

On the night of January 2, 2024, the enemy repeated a mass attack with various types of air attack, as it happened a few days ago – on December 29, 2023.

Critical infrastructure facilities, industrial, civilian and military facilities were attacked. The main direction of the attack is the capital of Ukraine!

In the first wave, they attacked with “shaheds” from the south-eastern direction, with further movement in different regions of Ukraine. All 35 attack UAVs “Shahed-136/131” were destroyed by air defense, which was reported earlier.

In the morning, the enemy used strategic aviation – Tu-95MS bombers. 16 planes entered the launch line around 6:00 a.m. and launched at least 70 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 air-based cruise missiles.

Starting at 07:30, the launch of ten Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from MiG-31K fighters was recorded.

The enemy also attacked from the sea with three Kalibr cruise missiles, and from the north with 12 ballistic missiles of the Iskander-M/S-300/S-400 type.

Four Kh-31P anti-radar missiles were used from Su-35 tactical aircraft.

According to preliminary results, the enemy used 99 means of air attack: missiles of various types.

The forces and means of the Air Force, in cooperation with units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, destroyed 72 air targets:

– 10 Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missiles;
– 59 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles;
– 3 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Let’s keep the sky!
Together to victory!»
https://t.me/kpszsu/9331

 

Ukrainian parliamentarian Oleksandr Merezhko’s analysis of what is needed is correct:

Some details from The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

Chinese shipments to Russia of an important class of advanced machine tools have increased tenfold since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the country’s producers now dominating trade in high-precision “computer numerical control” devices vital to Moscow’s military industries.

The soaring shipments of CNC units, which permit extremely precise metal milling, have become a big concern to Ukraine’s allies as they seek to crack down on Russia’s access to the equipment.

Russian customs returns show Chinese producers shipped $68mn worth of CNC tools in July, the latest verifiable figure available, up from just $6.5mn in February 2022 when Moscow launched the full-scale invasion.

Michael Raska, assistant professor at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said CNC exports were an example of how China and Russia were being drawn into a deepening military-industrial partnership.

“China and Russia share the same political interest, which is to challenge and confront the US,” Raska said. “The fact is Russia has been cut off from importing European machinery, it has no choice but to rely on China.”

Russian imports of CNC tools from the EU, historically its main source, have dramatically fallen as restrictions have tightened since February 2022. Analysts said Moscow was seeking to obtain CNC tools from sources that would not be closed off by international controls.

The customs returns show Chinese-origin CNC devices made up 57 per cent of Russian imports by value in July, up from just 12 per cent before the war. They suggest Moscow also continued to import substantial amounts of CNC tools made in Taiwan and South Korea.

In November, the US imposed sweeping sanctions on all significant Russian importers of CNC tools — including some that had moved less than $200,000 of equipment since the invasion in February last year. Chinese companies that continue to trade with the Russian importers now risk action from the US that would imperil their ability to trade in other markets.

Beijing insists it does not ship lethal weapons to Moscow and denies supporting its neighbour’s war effort, but also rejects the use of sanctions. Chinese shipments of products including oil, machinery, consumer goods and cars are helping to sustain Russia’s sanctions-hit economy. Xi Jinping, president of China, told Russia’s Vladimir Putin in October that annual trade between the two countries had hit a “historic high” of nearly $200bn.

Allen Maggard, an analyst at the Washington-based conflict analysis organisation C4ADS, said CNC tools could “rapidly produce complex components from metal and other rigid materials with a consistent degree of precision and accuracy. These qualities make CNC machine tools particularly valuable for defence manufacturing.”

They are also often large pieces of equipment, making them harder to smuggle into Russia from the west than smaller components such as microchips.

A Financial Times analysis of export records shows some major winners from the Russian surge have strong links with China’s People’s Liberation Army.

Wuhan Huazhong Numerical Control, for example, has increased exports to Russia. In 2017, it was the main contractor in a “Brain Switch Project” — a scheme to replace foreign CNC systems with domestic ones in the defence industry — and has worked with Chinese jet fighter maker Shenyang Aircraft Corporation.

HuazhongCNC was itself the subject of US sanctions between 2008 and 2010 under an act banning the transfer of weapons technology or equipment to Syria, Iran and North Korea. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

Emily Kilcrease, a former deputy assistant US trade representative, said Washington had been reluctant to use financial sanctions to target Chinese companies helping Russia because of concern that doing so would reduce the effectiveness of such measures in case of a crisis with Beijing.

“That dynamic about overuse is very much on the administration’s mind,” Kilcrease said. “They know that these sanctions and export controls are never going to be perfect. And so what they’re really focused on is making sure that what Russia can get is inferior goods. It’s cost imposition — making it much more difficult and expensive for Russia to get these sorts of machine tools.”

Much more at the link.

Unfortunately, Russia is not getting inferior goods. And, once again, the administration’s natsec team’s fears are working to Putin and Russia’s advantage.

This is what the Biden senior natsec team’s aversion to risk produces:

Some of the missiles used today were recently produced:

Remains of a shotdown Russian Kh-101 near Kyiv, showing both the warhead and the tail section. According to Defense Express the missile was produced in the 4th quarter of 2023.

This is another reminder how insufficient the current sanctions against Russia are. Especially middleman countries should be put into focus. The flow of goods can never be completely halted, but it can be diminished and slowed on far higher scale than it is now.

Source: http://defence-ua.com

#Ukraine #Kyiv

 

I think it’s now very fair to say that Ukraine has the world’s most advanced experience in air & missile defense.

Never before in military history has any nation faced and tackled such massive attacks, with dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles and kamikaze drones fired at a time.

It’s just a simple fact.

Now imagine what could be happening now if Ukraine had been provided with at least most of what it asked for.

We’d be at least much closer to a stable and just peace in Europe, with Russia repelled and deterred from new territorial grabs and new acts of military aggression.

Sumy Oblast:

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

The unit of the Russian army DSRG “Rusich” on its Telegram channel publishes a photo of torture, most likely of a captured Ukrainian.

And it does not matter if it is military or civilian.

The important thing is that he is hanging by his hands in some basement where he is being tortured. And the Russians brag about it.

This is how they are Russian “liberators”.

ALL CLEAR!!!!

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

You all know what this means!

Oleshky, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Belgorod, Russia:

Petropavlovka, Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First some adjacent material:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

48Comments

  1. 1.

    NutmegAgain

    Thank you again Adam. Can’t wait until these posts are no longer necessary.

    I’ve been trying to scour my mind for thoughts of any way that someone like me* can take some kind of action to tilt congress towards aid. (*Not much cash, live in a very blue area so all congresscritters are already supporting aid to Ukraine). Ideas from one and all welcome.

  3. 3.

    VeniceRiley

    I am still boiling on livid at the GOP, Biden, Sullivan, etc. I have been for quite some time now.

    Oh, and Kilo, our tiny teacup Yorkie has an enlarged heart that crowds his previously collapsed trachea and bit of a lung infection. He’s getting meds and slowly recovering somewhat. I am the care nurse.

    I cannot even imagine what the average Ukrainian villager is going through  Take the limits off, Joe. Tell Jake Sullivan to retire with his name somewhat intact.

  5. 5.

    Alison Rose

    Oh Lord, the letter from little Khrystyna when she says “Thanks to you, I can speak Ukrainian” made me choke up. To me, one of the worst war crimes the kremlin is committing is forcing thousands and thousands of children to grow up under terror and danger and a constant risk of death. The emotional damage that can do to young minds is heartbreaking.

    Beijing insists it does not ship lethal weapons to Moscow and denies supporting its neighbour’s war effort,

    Sure, I believe them. Thousands wouldn’t.

    I’ll reiterate my appreciation for the warnings ahead of graphic imagery. Sometimes I feel like a fucking jerk for not wanting to see a tiny picture on a screen when I’m a million miles from danger and Ukrainians have to see these things with their own eyes every day. But my stupid brain acts like a steel trap for disturbing images, and they will randomly play on a doom-reel in my mind, which I’m barely mentally equipped to cope with these days.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Unfortunately, over the past decade+ CNC machines have gone from fairly expensive & medium to high tech tools to cheap medium tech commodities, as Chinese companies have piles in to disrupt/displace the expensive foreign incumbents w/ their high margins. This is particularly true for the 3/4-axis CNC machines that are ubiquitous on any production line making mechanical components. You average factory mass producing metal casings & cover glass parts for iPhones (or any smartphones) will have hundreds to thousands of such CNCs, each costing no more than US$ 10K. Western countries will not have any better prospect  restricting the flow of these commoditized CNCs than they have had restricting the flow of commoditized semiconductors, cheap civilian buggies or indeed commodities such as oil/gas.

    There could be ways to limit any Chinese (& Taiwanese/South Korean) export of higher end 5/6-axis CNCs & 3D metal “printing” machines that could be particularly useful for fabrication of components for missiles and aircraft, even though these are dual use. These machines are much more expensive & far fewer in number, & thus a bit easier to track the flow of. Even the machines made in the PRC could still require precision sensors from Germany/Japan.

    Also, the PRC will have zero incentive to restrict any kind of dual use goods trade w/ Russia, when the U.S. is still unrelentingly pursuing restrictions on dual use technologies to the PRC, & twisting the arms of Japan & the EU to follow suit, w/ the expressed aim of slowing down the PRC’s technological & by extension economic development. A recent example is immersion DUV lithography scanner for chips between 28 nm to 7 nm line widths. The Netherlands had imposed export controls that would come into effect on Jan. 1, all the while giving ASML a wink to export as many as they could to the PRC before the export controls took effect (to the point that the PRC accounted for > 50% of all of ASML’s shipments between Q2 – Q4 ‘23). The  U.S. tightened its restrictions in Oct., & twisted Dutch arms to revoke export licenses of to some of the Chinese customers before Jan. 1. (& ASML has to pay a penalty for breach of contract). Ironically, the chips produced by immersion DUV scanners, let alone EUVs for < 7 nm line widths, are invariably for civilian applications. Military/space applications require much older tech that is more robust.

    The US will not secure PRC cooperation on its priorities when the overall focus of U.S. foreign policy is clearly rivalry w/ the PRC, & widely interpreted on both sides of the Pacific as undeclared containment. The same applies in reverse. Appeals to morality & justice will fall on deaf ears (& frankly unlikely to work on many governments, period).

  10. 10.

    Bupalos

    Thank you again Mr. Silverman for not mincing words. Indeed Russia is not getting inferior goods, or the extent of “inferior” here is like “to OSHA standards.” It doesn’t matter, it’s a rounding error in a numbers game that makes such consideratuons a joke. As in “we launch 99, you shoot down 80, leaving 19. And some of the time, 1 of those 19 misses it’s intended apartment complex and hits a different one. Killing a different 4 year old! Such an egg on our face!”

    Western fear of escalation (in radical denial of the actual escalation calculus) is guaranteeing escalation. Our cowardice is raising the prospect of nuclear exchange.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose: You’re most welcome.

    There’s a lot of stuff I look at – still imagery and video – and just choose not to include at all.

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the extensive coverage on yesterday’s Russian missile strikes.

    Ukrainian AD (specifically the Patriot batteries?) has had an excellent record intercepting the Kinzhals, which must be one of greatest flops among the weapons that the Russian MIC used to boast about before 2022. OTOH, not a single ballistic missile was intercepted?

    It is also notable that the Russian AF fired 4 anti-radiation missiles, possibly at that Ukrainian radars that lit up when the wave of Shahed drones arrived. That would be rational way to try to conduct SEAD, but not sure if the Russian military can manage something even as basic as this. Only 4 anti-radiation missiles fired (when there surely were more than that number of Ukrainian radars of all kinds radiating) probably suggests that Russian EW has a hard time fixing the locations of Ukraine’s more modern western radars, &/or Russian AF not wanting to risk their precious Su-35s over Ukrainian held territory to strike at the surveillance & target acquisition radars (for long range AD) that are inevitably positioned much further in the rear. The Kh-31 missiles only have ranges of ~ 100 km.

    As for Russian missile production rate, the number I have seen guesstimated are in the low to mid-single digits per day across all types of cruise/ballistic missiles. If Russia can keep up the cadence of 2 or more 100+ missile volleys per week for a few weeks, then its missile production rate is significantly higher than previously thought.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: You’re welcome.

    If you recall the reporting I posted last week that made it clear that the estimates of Russia’s missile production were undercounting. We’ll know soon enough. Unfortunately, the way we’re going to find out is by a lot of dead and wounded Ukrainian civilians.

  18. 18.

    Ksmiami

    I’m reminded of something Josh Marshall said. democracies usually don’t start wars, but often finish them… in a terrifying way. Time to end Putin

  19. 19.

    Bupalos

    @Ksmiami: I don’t think it has to be one or the other. I am fearful of confrontation with Russia, just realist enough to understand that confrontation is baked in and we’re unlikely to see a better time for that confrontation than now. As refusing the confrontation raises Putin’s positioning, his position as a client of CCP, as well as the stakes he’ll be playing for.

  22. 22.

    Gin & Tonic

    Yesterday I wrote about the destruction of the museum devoted to UPA General Roman Shukhevych. Today my friend M, who is a childhood friend of the museum’s director, posted “Live your life so that your enemies fear you for generations after your death” (Shukhevych was killed by the NKVD in 1950.)

  26. 26.

    Harrison Wesley

    @Alison Rose: A few months ago, the FWS found a very unhappy manatee who some charming Floridian decided needed a swastika carved on its back.  I don’t get it – this isn’t our usual inter-human disputes, this is fucking evil.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L Silverman: @YY_Sima Qian: 
    The Russian SEAD efforts are consistent with a program of experimentation and tactical evolution, directed at improving their scandalously bad non-intercept rate, which must necessarily be generating some pressure on raid commanders to get their numbers up from the 10-20% range that they’ve been in. Keep in mind that they see the negative of the picture seen by Ukraine: their failures are shootdowns (rather than successful penetration of AD, which is the Ukrainian failure metric), and 10-20% success rate is anemic, particularly given unit procurement costs.

    As to sustained firing rate, I would remind you that last year we learned not to attempt to discern any real numbers based on less than monthly averages, over a couple of months at least. Recall that the last few months have been relatively slack periods for the Russian Rocket Forces, which have doubtless allowed them to build up inventoried stockpile. The “Firing Rate is Acquisition Rate” rule applies on timescales longer than the intervals of intermittency between salvoes. As YY_Sima Quian says, we will see, but we are nowhere near the data time window duration required to discern the real munition acquisition rate at this time.

    I will merely say, speculatively, that if Russia really somehow managed the unlikely feat of boosting acquisitions by a factor of 10 (what we’re talking about here) but hid that fact so as to unveil a winter infrastructure campaign dwarfing last year’s, then they are, in my opinion, delusional idiots. It’s not as if they did’t have plenty of high-value military targets available throughout summer and fall.

  32. 32.

    Anoniminous

    Ukrainians have been reliably reported to building a new generation of drones with turbo-prop jet engines the UJ-25 Skyline.  Specifications for this weapon’s system are unknown.*  It’s immediate ancestor the Topaz has a cruise speed of 600 km/h (370 mph), a top speed of 800 km/h (500 mph), endurance of 90 minutes, and a mission radius of 400 km (250 mi) with a payload weight of 10 kg (22 lb.)

    Not a clue what they are going to do with these.

    * Like: No Shit, Sherlock — duh

  33. 33.

    Andrya

    There is one thing that I think Biden could do, and I hope that he is, but I fear that he is not:  make it clear to Republican leadership that if Ukraine falls, a humanitarian catastrophe of unimaginable proportions will result, and he will hang the catastrophe around their necks so everyone  can see it.  Remember how, in 2013, the Republicans used the debt limit hostage-taking to force the Democrats to cut Social Security, then pretended this was all the Democrats’ fault?

    All info actions are that the Republican leadership is planning a play of “heads I win, tails you lose”. If (G-d forbid) Ukraine is overwhelmed, and the media is awash in horrifying scenes, I am absolutely sure the Republicans will say that this happened because Biden is weak, and would never have happened had a strong, manly Republican been president.

  34. 34.

    Anoniminous

    @japa21:
    If Biden has any expertise or interest in things Military it’s not evident to me.  Thus I conclude he is relying on the usual cast of clowns such people from RAND, the Brookings Institute, and other such sweepings and dregs of American intellectual life.  For example, anyone who can ‘buy’ the assumptions of Game Theory:
    1) There are finite numbers of competitors (players).
    2) The players act reasonably.
    3) Every player strives to maximize gains and minimize losses.
    4) Each player has finite number of possible courses of action.
    5) The choices are assumed to be made simultaneously, so that no player knows his opponent’s choice until he has decided his own course of action.
    6) The pay-off is fixed and predetermined.
    7) The pay-offs must represent utilities.
    doesn’t know jack-shit about Human Behavior or even 20th Century history.​

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: If the daily production rate of cruise/ballistic missiles are actually 6 / day (& I have seen guesstimates as low as 3 / day), then the last two big salvoes have already consumed ~ 6 weeks of production, & it is highly unlikely Russia can sustain such a cadence for more than another week.

    Agree w/ your last statement in so far as Russia has always had the option of simply overwhelm Ukrainian AD, if the production rate is there. Intercept rate during these 100+ missile salvoes is significantly lower than when Russia was steadily launching 2 – 3 dozens of missiles/drones per day. Where I differ is that, while there were more militarily relevant targets in the summer, Putin clearly believes he can have the greatest impact hitting civilian infrastructure in winter to make the lives of Ukrainians miserable. Furthermore, I don’t think Russia has demonstrated the intelligence & targeting capabilities to consistently strike at militarily relevant targets (such as supply depots, air fields, & weapons manufacturers) deep in the Ukrainian rear w/ long range weapons, & has only made intermittent attempts so far.

    In fact, the best way to overwhelm any IADS is to synchronize the arrival of different munitions, at different directions/altitudes/trajectories/speeds. It should not be all that difficult to organize for any competent military, since Ukraine does not currently have the capability to meaningfully disrupt Russian production, rear area logistics or the launches themselves. However, I don’t think we have seen Russia doing so, which probably speaks to its poor C&C capabilities across services & theater commands. Russian SEAD capabilities also seem quite limited, & IMO has had less impact than Ukrainian efforts using primarily ground launched weapons (HIMARS), supplemented by the limited number of air launched HARM missiles provided.

  36. 36.

    topclimber

    Ah, rigorous proof to go with such a perspicacious (h/t Alan) remark./s

    ETA your rant against game theory has two minor flaws.

    1). Number of players is by definition finite.

    4). Number of possible actions per player is by definition finite.

  38. 38.

    MaryLou

    Maybe it’s just me, but is the general drift of these discussions “If anything bad happens, it’s the fault of US policy”, and its corollary, “If anything good happens, it’s no thanks to the US”?  I’m getting really tired of the constant Biden/Sullivan bashing, especially since the alternative on offer is “Give Putin anything he wants, but make sure the check clears before the final vote.”

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    A Financial Times Big Read on the complete destruction of Gaza Strip. It has seen as much destruction as Mozul & Raqqa in much less time, & on par w/ the carpet bombing of German & Japanese cities during WW II. Rebuilding Gaza will require a monumental effort, & a more stable & sustainable end game that Israel is currently envisioning.

    What will be left of Gaza when the war ends?
    With infrastructure and economy shattered, displaced Gazans fear there will be nothing to return to
    Andrew England in London, Heba Saleh in Cairo and Mai Khaled in Gaza
    YESTERDAY

  40. 40.

    way2blue

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    This!  What is needed for this to happen?

    Ukraine does not currently have the capability to meaningfully disrupt Russian production, rear area logistics or the launches themselves.

    Rather than as a sort of last resort—shoot them down en route—prevent them from being launched.  Doesn’t seem that the rate  Ukraine acquires the AD means to shoot down missiles & drones can keep up unless the West kicks things up an order of magnitude.

  41. 41.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, one of Adam’s favorite subjects – Sequester – is looming. GovExec.com:

    Congress has until Jan. 19 to keep the first handful of agencies funded under the two-tiered stopgap measure it approved in November, and until Feb. 2 to approve spending for the rest. Appropriators have yet to agree on top-line funding levels for the defense and non-defense sides of the budget, preventing them from writing the bills to set line-by-line spending for every federal program.

    Lawmakers had hoped to clear the decks so negotiators could focus only on federal funding upon their return to the Capitol in January, but instead punted on several issues—most notably President Biden’s supplemental funding request for foreign aid that is expected to be paired with immigration reform and border spending—that will compete for their attention.

    Once they turn to funding bills, pressure will be even higher than usual to come up with a long-term solution. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has repeatedly said he will not pass any additional short-term continuing resolutions this year. Due to a new twist on budget law in fiscal 2024, settling for a full-year CR would have devastating impacts for agencies and their employees.

    Across-the-board cuts?

    Under a provision of the debt ceiling law President Biden negotiated with House Republicans last year, an automatic 1% cut would hit agencies’ budgets on May 1 if Congress has not yet approved full-year funding. That was designed to disproportionately impact defense spending and therefore incentivize all sides to avoid the automatic reductions, as Republicans typically prioritize that side of the ledger. Due to “anomalies” included in stopgap measures, however, the Congressional Budget Office recently determined domestic agencies would shoulder the impact.

    Assuming a full year of funding for non-defense agencies at the current CR level, a reversion to the May 1 cap established in the debt ceiling deal would result in a $73 billion, or 10% across-the-board, cut. Defense would actually see its spending level increase by more than $25 billion. The Office of Management and Budget has final discretion over exactly how a sequester is implemented, but may have little wiggle room.

    Republicans could use the possibility of cuts to domestic priorities as leverage, knowing Democrats would be desperate to avoid such an outcome. The debt deal set top-line funding for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, but Republicans are insisting an extra $69 billion that was agreed to as part of the deal—but not put in statute—is not added to that figure as originally intended. Biden and then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., agreed to generate that money for non-defense discretionary spending by rescinding unused pandemic funds and $20 billion from funding set aside for the Internal Revenue Service as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.

    Johnson made clear he would honor only what was written in the Fiscal Responsibility Act, not the so-called “side deals” that allowed non-defense spending to stay essentially flat in fiscal 2024.

    […]

    CBP said, for example, it would be forced to shed 2,400 front-line agents and officers, while the Justice Department said the FBI would lose 11,000 agents. Agencies said tens of thousands of additional jobs would be lost or at risk, including 2,300 at the Food and Drug Administration, 9,400 at FAA and 3,200 at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

    “It’s a CRISIS AT THE BORDER! Biden must FIX IT. Therefore he must FIRE thousands of CBP agents!!11ONE” – a GQP Rep, probably.

    Interesting days ahead. :-/

    Funny how we always have these crises when the GQP controls the House or Senate, huh. :-/

    Grr…,
    Scott.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @way2blue: Ukraine needs long range precision air to ground munitions, modern long range air to air missiles, & platforms (w/ the attendant modern sensors) to launch them from. All of which have been subject of repeated discussions (both in policymaking circles, in MSM, & in these comments) over the past year+. Even if the US & the rest approve providing the relevant platforms & munitions, there will quickly be issues w/ stock & supply, just like w/ long range surface to air missiles & 155 mm artillery shells. In the mean time, this is the reason Ukraine is developing long range drones, & the ongoing campaign of sabotage against the Russian MIC (but not enough).

  44. 44.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Unsurprising rhetoric from Ben-Gvir:

    Far-right ministers call to ‘resettle’ Gaza’s Palestinians, build settlements in Strip
    Arab lawmaker compares statements by party leaders Smotrich and Ben Gvir to Nazi calls for ‘Lebensraum’; Liberman says Israel must reoccupy southern Lebanon to ensure security
    By SAM SOKOL

    1 January 2024, 6:37 pm

    Here is video snippet of Ben-Gvir’s comments, it carries of whiff of early 1930s Nazi Germany:

    Minister Ben-Gvir: “Encouraging the residents of Gaza to emigrate is a solution we must advance”

    Per John Hudson at WaPo, US State Department has issued a verbal slap on the wrist for Ben-Gvir’s comments.

    US State Department calls out Israeli ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir for “inflammatory and irresponsible” rhetoric “advocating for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza.”

    In a reference to Netanyahu, the statement says “We have been told repeatedly and consistently by the Government of Israel, including by the Prime Minister, that such statements do not reflect the policy of the Israeli government. They should stop immediately.”

    It’s worth noting that Netanyahu on several occasions asked Western leaders, including Biden/Macron/Scholz/Sunak, to pressure Egypt to take in Gazans — a request they all refused, noting that Egypt has made clear it has no interest in playing any role in their mass displacement

    After getting called out by the State Department for using “irresponsible” rhetoric about the mass displacement of Palestinians, Israel’s national security minister shrugs

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    BTW, I think the FT article that Adam exerted buried the some important caveats at the end (emphasis mine):

    …
    Existing US sanctions and export controls against Beijing’s military contractors over other issues have led many Chinese companies to disregard potential US sanctions risks, according to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

    Many Chinese companies “expect that sooner or later, all companies linked to the People’s Liberation Army will be sanctioned”, Gabuev said. “So they think either you can try to stay on the market by avoiding deepening your military ties and get sanctioned anyway, or you can just go ahead with it.”

    How Russia has deployed the Chinese CNC devices it has imported is unclear. Maggard said he believed Russian defence plants were only “beginning to use Chinese CNC machine tools”. Analysts are yet to positively identify any being used on social media or during hours of propaganda footage filmed inside Russia’s high-tech military factories. CNC devices pictured are still all from European, Taiwanese, Korean or Japanese suppliers.

    This picture is supported by other sources. For example, customs records show CFT, a large now-sanctioned Russian importer of CNC devices, imported very few Chinese-origin products up to July. A leaked internal document from CFT shows it is a supplier to Russian defence manufacturers including Aeroscan, which produces the Lancet kamikaze drone that has inflicted serious losses on Ukrainian forces. CFT did not respond to a request for comment.

    Olena Yurchenko, an analyst at investigative and advocacy organisation the Economic Security Council of Ukraine, said it would be “almost impossible” to use a Chinese CNC machine in a plant that had based its production processes around a tool from another producer with different specifications.

    …

    However, I am not sure what is the rationale behind Olena Yurchenko’s claim. I would think what matters to the rest of the product processes are the tolerances of the machined parts fabricated by the CNC machines.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    WTF?!! How did the Israeli government not think of Madagascar?

    Israeli officials said in talks with Congo, others on taking in Gaza emigrants
    Today, 8:12 am
    The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister-site Zman Yisrael reports that Israeli officials have held clandestine talks with the African nation of Congo and several others for the potential acceptance of Gaza emigrants.
    “Congo will be willing to take in migrants, and we’re in talks with others,” a senior source in the security cabinet tells Shalom Yerushalmi.
    Yerushalmi quotes Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel saying at the Knesset yesterday: “At the end of the war Hamas rule will collapse, there are no municipal authorities, the civilian population will be entirely dependent on humanitarian aid. There will be no work, and 60% of Gaza’s agricultural land will become security buffer zones.”
    Saying education to hatred will continue in Gaza and further attacks on Israel are only a matter of time, she added: “The Gaza problem is not just our problem. The world should support humanitarian emigration, because that’s the only solution I know.”
    Yesterday Washington panned far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir for advocating the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza.
    “This rhetoric is inflammatory and irresponsible,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said.

  48. 48.

    YY_Sima Qian

    What a way to enter 2024!

    From Barak Ravid:

    BREAKING: Salah al-Arouri, the deputy chairman of Hamas’s political bureau and the commander of the terror group’s military wing in the West Bank, was assassinated in a drone attack in Beirut, according to the Lebanese press

    Shashank Joshi has more background on al-Arouri:

    “A member of Hamas since 1987, he led the Islamic student movement and helped establish Hamas’s military wing in the West Bank. He has been repeatedly detained by Israel, incl long periods between 1985-1992, & 1992-2007. In 2010 he was deported…to Syria”

    Arouri’s house was demolished by Israel on Oct 31. “The Israel Defense Forces demolished overnight Monday a home owned by senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri, in the West Bank town of ‘Arura, near Ramallah.”

    https://timesofisrael.com/idf-demolishes-west-bank-home-of-exiled-senior-hamas-official-saleh-al-arouri/amp/

    …

    No one will shed any tears for al-Arouri, but Hezbollah has declared any Israeli strikes in Beirut & neighboring suburbs to be red lines that will illicit a sharp response. Looks like the Biden Administration will have a much tougher time preventing the war from becoming regionalized.

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