(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Russia just attacked Kharkiv city center with S-300 missiles. Repeated attacks on civilian areas aim to threaten, undermine morale, and escalate tensions around Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/4IyhYy4ZRT
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 16, 2024
Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov writes on Telegram that Russian missiles have hit the centre of the city tonight “exactly here there is no military infrastructure, and exactly where there is residential construction.“ There are people wounded, he says.
— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) January 16, 2024
At least four civilians were injured, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration reported. https://t.co/YxjCvUvS98
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) January 16, 2024
President Zelenskyy was in Davos today where he addressed the World Economic Forum. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Every investment in the confidence of the defender shortens the war – speech by the President of Ukraine to the participants of the special meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos
16 January 2024 – 16:52
Professor Schwab, thank you for your very kind introduction.
President Brende,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I appreciate your willingness to hear answers to truly important questions. When will the war end? Is the Third world war possible? Is it time to negotiate with Putin?
The full-scale war in Europe has been ongoing for nearly two years. Counting the time since Russia’s illegal annexation of our Crimea, it’s been almost 10 years.
And for almost 10 years, Russia has been interfering in African countries, from Sudan to Mali.
The Syrian war, still bleeding because of Putin’s decision to prove something to the world, has been ongoing for almost 13 years.
In fact, one man has stolen at least 13 years of peace replacing them with pain, pain, pain and crises that impact the entire world.
Putin is trying to normalize what should have ended in the 20th century – mass deportations, cities and villages razed to the ground, and the terrifying feeling that the war may never end.
In fact, Putin embodies war. We all know that he is the sole reason why various wars and conflicts persist, and why all attempts to restore peace have failed. And he will not change. He will not change.
We must change. We all must change to the extent that the madness that resides in this man’s head or any other aggressor’s head will not prevail.
Putin is frank about what he wants, what he does, and who his targets are.
His answer to the duration of the war is always war, without an end. He wants it this way.
His answer to the limits of chaos in the world is the boundless support of terrorist forces. He enjoys conflicts that cause suffering to others.
His answer to calls for peace is supplying more and more weapons from North Korea and Iran.
Regimes like his exist as long as they wage wars.
And we – we all in the free world – exist as long as we can defend ourselves.
If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken. Possible directions and even timeline of a new Russian aggression beyond Ukraine become more and more obvious.
Let me ask very honestly: which European nation today can provide a combat ready army on par with ours, holding back Russia? And how many men and women are your nations ready to send to defend another state, another nation?
If one must fight against Putin together in the years ahead, isn’t it better to put an end to him and his war-strategy now, while our brave men and women are already doing it? They are the world’s chance. They are.
In any dire confrontation, there’s always a point where a catastrophe can be stopped. Ukraine is that opportunity.
And we all in the free world must be unwavering in our pursuit of our desires, actions, and goals, just as Putin is frank about his doom-laden ambitions.
We, all Ukrainians, began our defense at a time when almost no one in the world believed in Ukraine. But we turned tables so that now the world has stopped believing in Russia.
Even Putin’s current buddies in Pyongyang and Tehran are simply using his madness while he still has technologies and resources to pay them. No one believes in his future or invests in it.
And we, all of us, today, even more than yesterday, must invest in bringing peace closer – a peace that is both just and stable.
Before the full-scale invasion, we constantly heard – don’t escalate! We called for proactive action, sanctions to prevent war expansion. We were told: don’t escalate. And after February 24th, nothing harmed our coalitions more than this concept.
Every “don’t escalate” to us, sounded like “you will prevail” to Putin. We asked for new types of weapons, and the response was “don’t escalate”. But then weapons arrived, and there was no escalation. A Russian missile fell on NATO territory – the response again was “don’t escalate.” But retaliation at that moment could have taught Russia a lot and would have added necessary confidence to the West. We talked about blocking the transit of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad, but the response was “don’t escalate”. Full force of the sanctions could have forced Putin to concessions.
Because of “don’t escalate,” time was lost. The lives of many of our most experienced warriors, who fought since 2014, were lost. Some opportunities were lost.
The lesson is clear.
Everyone thought Russia had missiles that couldn’t be shot down. Patriots shoot down everything.
Many feared the consequences if Ukraine gets long-range weapons. As a result – Russia just loses more.
We heard Russia would never allow a grain corridor without its involvement. Nearly 16 million tons of cargo have been transported from our ports.
And we can prove that Russia will reconcile with the complete loss of its Black Sea Fleet, which terrorized commercial ships.
We must gain air superiority for Ukraine, just as we have gained superiority at the Black Sea. We can do it. Partners know what’s needed and in what quantities. This will allow progress on the ground.
Just two days ago, we proved Ukraine can even hit very valuable Russian military aircraft which no one had shot down before.
Many sanction steps were delayed for months, even years, because they faced storms of threats from Moscow. But none of those threats came true. Each storm turned out to be their bluff.
And how can one be satisfied with the sanctions against Russia or export controls if they don’t even block its missile production? In every Russian missile there are critical components from Western countries. Dozens of components in every missile. And it’s true. It’s a fact.
Of course, I am grateful for each package of sanctions. Thanks, partners. Thank you. But bringing peace closer will be a reward for all those who care to ensure that sanctions work one hundred percent.
And by the way, it’s a clear weakness of the West that Russia’s nuclear industry is still not under global sanctions, even though Putin is the only terrorist in the world who took a nuclear power plant hostage.
It must be a strong decision, this year, when frozen Russian assets, sovereign and oligarchic, will be directed towards defense against the Russian war and for reconstruction of Ukraine.
Putin loves money above all. The more billions he and his oligarchs, friends, and accomplices lose, the more likely he will regret starting this war.
Putin must regret. We need him to lose. We need to finally dispel the notion that global unity is weaker than one man’s hatred.
And we can do it.
Ladies and Gentlemen!
This year must be decisive. Can freezing the war in Ukraine be its end?
I don’t want to settle for the truism that any frozen conflict will eventually reignite.
I remind you that after 2014, there were attempts to freeze the war in Donbas. There were very influential guarantors of that process – then Chancellor of Germany and then Presidents of France.
But Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products. And we have to defend ourselves, our children, our houses, our lives. We have to do it. We can beat him on the ground. We have proved it. And at sea and in the skies. We ramp up production of weapons. We achieved economic growth in Ukraine, our GDP is moving-up – despite the war, plus more than 5 percent last year. We got the decision on EU-accession negotiations. We are normalizing the idea that the aggressions can be defeated – even Putin’s aggressions, which have been ongoing for ten years and more.
Now we can say: don’t escalate. To all who doubt. To all who want to reduce support.
And in this warning, we will be absolutely correct.
Because every reduction in pressure on the aggressor adds years to the war. But every investment in the confidence of the defender shortens the war.
We must make it possible to answer the most important question: the war will end – with a just and stable peace.
And I want you to be the part of this peace – starting from right now – to bring the peace closer. And we need you in Ukraine – to build, to reconstruct, to restore our lives. Each of you can be even more successful with Ukraine.
And these days, right here in such a beautiful country, in Switzerland, we have made a key political contribution to the possibility of ending the war.
There was the most representative meeting of national security advisors regarding the implementation of the Peace Formula. More than 80 countries and international institutions were represented. Yesterday, I had very productive negotiations with the President of Switzerland, discussing the possibility of holding a summit at the leaders’ level in Switzerland – the first summit, the Global Peace Summit. Today, our teams have already begun work on organizing such a summit. Not the World War Three, but the Global Peace Summit.
And I invite every leader and country that respects peace and international law to join us.
Together we can answer any crucial questions. And it will be the best answers.
Peace must be the answer.
Thank you for your invitation. Thank you for your attention!
Слава Україні!
“If anyone thinks this is only about us, this is only about Ukraine, they are fundamentally mistaken. Possible directions and even new Russian aggression beyond Ukraine become more and more obvious,” Zelensky warned. “Strengthen our economy and we will strengthen your security.” https://t.co/IbQMLDnrwY
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 16, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged allies to boost funding for his country, arguing that Kyiv’s ability to fight back against the Russian invasion is also in their own security interests.
Ukraine’s president told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday that anyone who believed Vladimir Putin’s war was only about Ukraine was “fundamentally mistaken”, adding that the Russian leader embodies war without an end.
The solution was not a frozen conflict in Ukraine, he said. “Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products.”
His Davos pitch comes as western aid is running perilously low after decision makers in Washington and Brussels were unable to renew a total of $110bn for the next few years. Russia, meanwhile, has ramped up its aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities, as well as its domestic arms production and imports of drones and missiles from Iran and North Korea.
“If anyone thinks this is only about us, this is only about Ukraine, they are fundamentally mistaken. Possible directions and even . . . a new Russian aggression beyond Ukraine become more and more obvious,” Zelenskyy warned. “Strengthen our economy and we will strengthen your security.”
Zelenskyy met government and business leaders in the Swiss resort, including JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon, Blackstone Group chair Stephen Schwarzman and Lakshmi Mittal, founder of steel giant ArcelorMittal.
He struck a particularly optimistic note regarding the EU’s delayed financing package, saying he had seen positive signs on this front.
EU officials are increasingly confident that they can strike a deal on February 1 to allocate €50bn of fresh funding to Ukraine, either through concessions to Hungary that would allow the use of the bloc’s shared budget, or an off-budget “plan B” arrangement that would bypass Budapest.
Zelenskyy said his country was still counting on Congress to unlock the latest US financial package, as concerns in Kyiv and allied capitals are mounting about Donald Trump returning to the White House following elections in November. The former president is campaigning on halting support for Ukraine and “ending the war” with Russia.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who also spoke at Davos on Tuesday, said Ukraine could prevail in the war, but warned that the allies needed to “continue to empower their resistance”.
“Ukrainians need predictable financing throughout 2024 and beyond. They need a sufficient and sustained supply of weapons to defend Ukraine and regain its rightful territory. They need capabilities to deter future attacks by Russia.”
A Ukrainian counteroffensive last year failed to recapture significant territories occupied by Russia and Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said that, in terms of the military campaign, “the reality is that, of course, there are reasons to be concerned”.
“The big [Ukrainian] spring offensive didn’t give the results we all hoped for,” said the head of the military alliance. “But despite these difficulties, there are reasons for optimism,” he added, calling for countries “to continue to deliver the weapons”.
More at the link.
The price:
🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 🇮🇪 🇸🇪 🇳🇴 🇪🇪 🇵🇱 🇬🇪 🇦🇿 🇯🇵🇨🇭 …
Never forget the price of freedom pic.twitter.com/hqJ03zZ7ts— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 16, 2024
France:
At his press conference this evening I asked @EmmanuelMacron about 🇫🇷 military support for 🇺🇦. He said that 🇫🇷 would unveil a bilateral security agreement with 🇺🇦 shortly, send 40 more SCALP missiles + “hundreds” of (unspecified) bombs, and that he would go to Kyiv in February pic.twitter.com/DrvtgsxcFo
— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) January 16, 2024
Comes immediately after the French foreign minister visited Kyiv. https://t.co/Gy5WvEWVZR
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) January 16, 2024
The Polish-Ukrainian border:
Earlier the same day, Polish truckers ended their blockade of two other checkpoints — Korczowa-Krakovets and Hrebenne-Rava Ruska, meaning the border is now fully unblocked. This followed an agreement between Warsaw and the Polish truckers, who said they would end their border…
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 16, 2024
⚡️ Border Guard: Polish truckers unblock last crossing at Ukraine border.
The blockade at the Dorohusk-Yahodyn crossing, the last Polish-Ukrainian border checkpoint remaining blocked, has been lifted, and the movement of trucks there has resumed, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service said on Jan. 16.
Earlier the same day, Polish truckers ended their blockade of two other checkpoints — Korczowa-Krakovets and Hrebenne-Rava Ruska, meaning the border is now fully unblocked. This followed an agreement between Warsaw and the Polish truckers, who said they would end their border blockade until March 1.
Germany:
President Biden and I agree: we want to continue to provide Ukraine with financial, humanitarian and military support. Today, I spoke to @POTUS on the phone. Germany is providing more than seven billion euros in military goods in 2024.
— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) January 16, 2024
Also, Germany:
German opposition leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, calls for the TAURUS delivery. He explicitly mentions the Kerch Bridge to be destroyed. He is questioning Scholz' "reasoning" on this matter, or better the lacking of thereof.
This is exactly how to phrase it.
Source… pic.twitter.com/FVGKz11kxK
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 16, 2024
German opposition leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, calls for the TAURUS delivery. He explicitly mentions the Kerch Bridge to be destroyed. He is questioning Scholz’ “reasoning” on this matter, or better the lacking of thereof.
This is exactly how to phrase it.
Source (German) https://table.media/berlin/interview/interview-mit-friedrich-merz-wer-frieden-will-muss-zum-krieg-bereit-sein/
Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
There is an old proverb: the Ukrainians who are not left in peace by the russian occupiers will burn down their weapons.
It was proved by our warriors in the Kherson region when they destroyed two russian BM-27 Uragan 220mm MLRS.
📹: Operational Command South pic.twitter.com/4BmRUtxcBi
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 16, 2024
The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Revenge for the shelling of Ukrainian cities.
Our warriors destroyed a russian BM-21 Grad MLRS on the left bank of the Kherson region using an FPV drone.📹: 79th Border Guard Detachment pic.twitter.com/FLcSfIVEkh
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 16, 2024
/2. Osa location on the map pic.twitter.com/plMcrUlmjU
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 16, 2024
Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
New Armin van Buuren set for Russian infestation in Krynky (sanitary losses).
Magyar. pic.twitter.com/nroWjqudyY
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 16, 2024
Magyar’s Birds have begun the New Year on the hunt!
Avdiivka:
As shown by the 110th Brigade, another column of at least 7 Russian vehicles attempted an attack in the Avdiivka direction on 15 January. The Brigade promised to reveal more details of how things unfolded later.https://t.co/db9ElPRTg3 pic.twitter.com/6EP0Xh4yeV
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 16, 2024
DeepState in more details about yesterday’s Russian attack on Avdiivka:
“Yesterday, the Russians launched an attack from three directions on the northeastern outskirts of Avdiivka
🗡 The fighters of the 110th brigade had to stop the enemy's attack yesterday. In the area of… https://t.co/tVgDIHjXe1 pic.twitter.com/Fnm3tSj215
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 16, 2024
DeepState in more details about yesterday’s Russian attack on Avdiivka:
“Yesterday, the Russians launched an attack from three directions on the northeastern outskirts of Avdiivka
🗡 The fighters of the 110th brigade had to stop the enemy’s attack yesterday. In the area of Kamyanka, two simultaneous waves of infantry platoon were moving. The goal was either to try to break through in small groups, or to distract from another strike. After all, at the same time, a convoy of at least 10 AFVs was moving through Vesele to Avdiivka.
🔥 The suicide tank at the head of the convoy acted as a deminer and our guys thought until the end that it was on remote control. BMP immediately disembarked the infantry and retreated. The infantry was hit immediately, it was not possible to calculate the losses. Some of the AFVs were destroyed, the footage can be seen in the previous video on the channel. As for the two waves near Kamyanka, about 20 people from two platoons were killed and wounded. The rest ran away.
🛡Despite all the difficulty of conducting hostilities in conditions of a long line of contact, the fighters of the Defense Forces manage to successfully inflict effective damage on the enemy. An important role is played by the leadership and personnel of the 110th Brigade, who make every effort to hold positions with minimal losses.”
Moscow:
how many times and in how many ways does putin have to say that russia's borders do not end anywhere before some people get it? https://t.co/fFXB69b7SG
— marta dyczok (@mdyczok) January 15, 2024
Voronezh & the Voronezh military airfield, Russia:
City of Voronezh officially joins the Special Military Operation Zone after an attack by unidentified flying objects last night. pic.twitter.com/IA1QrHRAwf
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) January 16, 2024
Russian sources report a successful drone attack on the Voronezh military airfield, Baltimor, over 200 km deep inside Russia. Don't designate only Belgorod as a grey zone; include Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov pic.twitter.com/Os7x0AveI6
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 16, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
Our drones are even more effective when a furry supervisor helps to launch them. pic.twitter.com/8sBwsHLC2S
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 16, 2024
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I have had a very long, though good, but long day. So I’m going to rack out.
AlaskaReader and everyone else: you are all most welcome!
Alison Rose
I’m not getting the reference in Dmitri’s tweet to Armin van Buuren. I know the name well — he’s a Dutch trance DJ and producer whose work I’ve loved for years, but…what is the connection to the war? I feel kind of dumb if this is something that’s come up before and I just never noticed.
It is so incredibly maddening that people can look at what is happening and think “nah they don’t need any support”. Feels like bizarro world. I don’t think a choice between two sides has ever been this easy to make.
Thank you as always, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
It seems repurposed S-300 missiles are Russian’s preferred weapons for terrorizing Ukraine civilians farther away from the front lines?
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
wombat probability cloud
@Adam L Silverman: Glad that you had a good day.
Yutsano
@YY_Sima Qian: You go with the missiles you have, not the missiles you wish you had?
YY_Sima Qian
In other news, in the past 24 hrs Iran just launched ballistic missile strikes to targets near Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, Idlib in Syria, & Baluchistan in Pakistan. At least they did not target any US forces/installations.
The War in Ukraine continues to be a bloody stalemate for the time being. The Israeli War in Gaza remains at a high intensity tempo. Pressure keeps building in the West Bank. Tit-for-tat strikes between Israel & Hezbollah continue to slowly escalate (w/ Israel making noises about widening the war to the north), same w/ tit-for-tat attacks between the Houthis & the US led naval coalition in the Red Sea.
Then there is this headline grabbing analysis, that is being shared around by all of the most experienced NE Asia experts I follow:
The analysis seems awfully thin to me, & why would NK be selling artillery shells & SRBMs to Russia if it is planning for war, but the people whose opinions I respect are taking it seriously, so…
2 weeks in, 2024 is already shaping up to be a doozy!
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: Well, at least the national level elections in TW passed smoothly. Lai, the pro-independence leaning DPP candidate won the presidency on a plurality of 40% of the vote, due to the oppositions’ failure to unite their tickets. The DPP lost its majority in the legislature, but no party has a majority, & the TPP, the 3rd party, will play kingmaker. I find Ko, the TPP’s leader, to be a cynical & opportunistic charlatan. Just like the KMT in opposition, the TPP is probably not incentivized to help the DPP advance its agenda. The TPP’s electoral interest lie in making Lai’s term a failure, and further intensify the dissatisfaction w/ the DPP’s domestic policy record, as well as concerns w/ the DPP’s more vocally confrontational stance vis-a-vis the PRC (especially since some of it is clearly performative for electoral purposes).
So, the result appears to support a continuation of the status quo of the past 8 years, albeit a turbulent status quo. Taiwan’s overpowered executive branch (& the Presidency is especially overpowered in foreign & Cross-Strait policies) means not much change in the valence of relations w/ the Mainland, & continued alignment w/ the US & friendly elements in the EU. Domestically, continuation of status quo under a gridlocked legislation dues not bode well for addressing Taiwan’s socio-economic ills: excessive economic dependence on the semiconductor sector (greatly contributing to the top line economic indicators but whose spoils are not widely shared across society), stagnant class mobility, slow wage growth, entrenched special interests & attendant corruption, unaffordable housing, & youth disaffection (which is the driver behind the TPP’s unexpectedly strong showing).
The rhetorics out of Taipei, DC & Beijing in the immediate aftermath of the election suggest a conscious effort by the 3 parties to manage risk of escalation in Cross-Strait tensions. But, 2024 is young, yet…
YY_Sima Qian
@Yutsano: Surely, yes.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Good days are good.
Thanks for the update.
Rest easy.
Cheers,
Scott.
wjca
At minimum one would expect them to explain why a North Korea which was preparing for war would ship Russia vast amounts of ammo. Even the low quality ammo they are apparently providing.
Or, perhaps, what Russia might provide in return which Kim would value so enormously. And I doubt Kim would be so trusting (trust Putin???) as to accept promises of Russian action in later support; he’d want whatever hardware it is in hand.
There is also the question of whether China would tolerate North Korea starting a war. Except, I suppose, if they were planning an invasion of Taiwan at the same time…. (And even then, North Korean saber rattling, which could/would cause the US to increase its military presence in the region, would seem to be counterproductive.)
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: I agree, & the authors themselves assess that Sino-NK relations has been cooling & not rapidly warming, so coordinated action to simultaneous attack SK & TW seems implausible.
Furthermore, as I mentioned before, Japan would not be offering its older Patriot batteries to Ukraine if its government assesses that there is real danger of war on the Korean Peninsula or across there Taiwan Strait in the short term, let alone both!
dr. luba
A friend from Kyiv wrote me earlier tonight:
“News from a few hours ago: A rocket attack on Kharkiv injured 16 people, two of them in serious condition.”
putin is a war criminal.
russia is a terrorist state.
All russians are complicit.
AlaskaReader
@dr. luba: …is a sabateur complicit?
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Send in the fucking Taurus already! I am so sick of all this realpolitik BS!