It’s the small hours in Ukraine and reports are starting to come in of Russian strikes. It may be that a pre-dawn bombardment is starting. I’ll have some of the preliminary reporting on that after the jump.
In his first statement as CinC, Syrsky outlines main priorities:
1. Fast and rational distribution of necessary items for combat units, focusing on military logistics.
2. Balancing combat tasks with unit restoration and intensified personnel training.
3. New technical solutions… pic.twitter.com/Su7AjezeLN— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 9, 2024
In his first statement as CinC, Syrsky outlines main priorities:
1. Fast and rational distribution of necessary items for combat units, focusing on military logistics.
2. Balancing combat tasks with unit restoration and intensified personnel training.
3. New technical solutions and scaling successful experiences, like UAVs and radio-electronic warfare.He refers to the war as a “liberation war.”
From The Kyiv Independent:
Ukraine’s newly appointed Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who has replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, laid out his priorities in managing the war, which will soon enter its third year.
In his first social media post after the appointment published on Feb. 9, Syrskyi said one of his primary tasks would be “a clear and detailed planning” for all military administration bodies, taking into account the needs of front-line units in new weaponry sent by allies.
“The fastest and most rational distribution and delivery of everything necessary for combat units remains the main task of military logistics,” Syrskyi said on Telegram.
This statement echoes Zelensky’s words that he expects the new military leadership to solve problems with logistics and conduct a “fair redistribution” of Western-provided arms “in favor of the zero line.”
Syrskyi also emphasized that military headquarters of all levels must be aware of all the front-line needs and “master the situation” in each sector of the front.
As another priority for Ukraine fighting off Russia’s full-scale invasion, Syrskyi named “introducing new technical solutions and scaling successful experience,” such as the use of unmanned systems and modern tools of electronic warfare.
Syrskyi concluded his post by saying that “a reliable rear is one of the main components of overall success in war.”
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We value American leadership, its contribution to defense of Ukrainian independence and democracy – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9 February 2024 – 20:55
I wish good health to all esteemed Ukrainian men and women!
The main event of the day.
Today, I awarded state honors, including “Crosses of Military Merit” and orders of the Golden Star, to our warriors. Soldiers, sergeants, officers, and generals. The heroes of this war. Those who are already in the history of our state. Among them is Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vyacheslav Aheiev. It was his unit that, in May 2023, for the first time, destroyed a Russian ballistic target missile, which Moscow always boasted about, claiming no one could shoot it down. Ukrainians succeeded.
I awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine to General Valeriy Zaluzhny and Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov. Grateful to everyone. And overall, since the start of the full-scale war, over 70,000 soldiers from various units of Ukraine’s Defense and Security Forces have been awarded state honors. It is the bravery that gives strength to Ukraine.
Today, I held meetings with the command of our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Here are the results of the meetings: first, I replaced the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I thank Lieutenant General Serhiy Shaptala for his service during these two years of war. Upon the proposal of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, I appointed Major General Anatoliy Barhylyevych as the new Chief of the General Staff. An experienced individual, he understands the tasks of this war and Ukrainian goals.
Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi identified candidates for deputies, and I will sign the corresponding decrees. Deputies for the Chief of the General Staff have also been determined. All the guys are battle-hardened, professional, each with a clear understanding of the front line and the real needs of Ukrainian soldiers.
It is also crucial that the Commander-in-Chief, along with the Defense Minister, held talks with partners – Germany, France, and the United States. I know that everything is being meticulously addressed: supplies, filling deficits, ammunition, weapons.
Today, I held a meeting with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. During my trip to Kropyvnytsky and the regional meeting there, I tasked the Prime Minister to promptly address critical issues in the region. Regarding the stability of water supply, the operation of uranium mines, and the social protection of workers. Also, security issues, including the possibility for regional and local authorities to purchase means of electronic warfare to defend infrastructure at their own expense. These are entirely practical matters. Each issue has been assigned, and we will monitor their implementation.
In addition, we coordinated our work with partners regarding the confiscation of Russian assets with the Prime Minister. We continue to communicate at all levels – official, expert, and public – to expedite all necessary decisions.
For every manifestation of Russian madness and terror, no matter what they may be, the best response is losses for the terrorist state. Painful and tangible losses. The more losses the instigator of the war suffers, the closer we can bring the return to peace. A just peace and reliable security.
Today, I met with a bipartisan delegation of congressmen from the United States, led by the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. I briefed them on the current situation on the battlefield, critical threats, and the necessity of continuing support for our defense. We primarily discussed three issues: the need for support this year and a new U.S. package, which is still under discussion. The critical issue… Also, missile defense systems – specifically the Patriots. And the third key issue – I emphasized the importance of the range of our weapons, especially ATACMS with the 300 km range, for which, unfortunately, there is still no decision.
We appreciate American leadership and its contribution to the defense of Ukrainian independence and democracy from the early days of the full-scale war. America helped Ukraine stand firm at a decisive moment. And now, this year, the time of war has not become easier. The challenges are extraordinary, and in Europe, there are increasing voices about how the Kremlin is preparing to expand aggression. The continuation of American support is necessary. And I thank all our American partners who understand this. We cannot allow the spread of war and Russian evil. Putin sobers up only when he sees strength before him. Strength is needed. Thank you to everyone who increases our strength.
And one more thing.
Today, I met with members of the High-Level Working Group on the Environmental Consequences of the War. It is one of the points of the Ukrainian Peace Formula – a point on countering ecocide. Russia, through this war, has caused catastrophic environmental damage to Ukraine and our Black Sea region. This concerns everything – from the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant to the widespread contamination of our land with mines. We must address this issue now – together with everyone in the world who is willing to help. We cannot leave any aspect of this war to our children, no frozen or deferred problems – everything needs to be resolved. And I thank everyone who has the energy and determination to ensure that there are solutions.
Glory to all who fight and work to ensure that Ukraine wins! Glory to all who help!
Glory to Ukraine!
Unfortunately, no matter how nicely President Zelenskyy speaks of the US in general and specific House GOP majority caucus committee chairs in specific, the aid his military so desperately needs is not coming.
Ukraine faces a critical gap in western artillery ammunition needed to withstand Russian attacks, officials have warned, as US assistance runs out and Europe fails to hit its own targets for increased arms production https://t.co/Ps7IxYqgvd pic.twitter.com/iAO0L5yLIf
— Financial Times (@FT) February 9, 2024
From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
Ukraine faces a critical gap in western artillery ammunition needed to withstand Russian attacks, officials have warned, as US assistance runs out and Europe fails to hit its own targets for increased arms production.
Kyiv has already been struggling to hold back Russia’s troops along a 1,500km active frontline, with Ukrainian forces rationing stockpiles and firing only about a third of the number of rounds they need each day to maintain their position.
Further aggravating their situation is the failure in Washington to pass $60bn in military and financial aid, which means most American shipments are at an effective pause, while a promised European ramp-up of production has not been fast enough, according to US and European officials.
The congressional delay risked creating an “airbubble” or “gap in the hose” of supplies to Kyiv, said a senior US military official.
The US Senate on Thursday voted to move forward with more debate over a new bill to send $60bn in additional funds to Ukraine, giving some hope of a last-gasp breakthrough to secure more lethal aid, but Congress’s backing remains far from certain.
Western officials have warned that the coming months will stretch Ukraine’s ability to fight with fewer resources, with Russia already exploiting the resource advantage to make gains in key locations such as around the strategic town of Avdiivka.
“This is really as grave as we have been portraying it,” a US defence official said, noting that the US had run out of money to fund new weapons contracts for Ukraine or funds that would allow the Pentagon to take inventory from its stockpiles and replenish those stocks.
“My take is that this is a very grim scenario,” the defence official said, adding that the Pentagon was particularly concerned about maintaining Ukrainians’ air defence systems and ammunition supplies.
“It is a desperate situation on the front lines for the Ukrainians, far worse than they are letting on,” said a senior Nato diplomat.
Nearly two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Moscow’s superior ammunition and manpower has forced Ukraine to adopt a strategy of “active defence” this year, after a much-vaunted counteroffensive in 2023 failed to make a significant breakthrough.
The risk of a gap in military assistance was “the main concern” for the first half of this year, a senior European diplomat said, warning that even holding on to current positions would be hard for Ukrainians to achieve.
“It will not be easy for the Europeans to substitute for the US. That’s not entirely realistic,” said one senior European diplomat. “Can [the EU] be enough if the US changes course of its direction? I’m not sure.”
President Joe Biden acknowledged the problem this week, saying the US was the “essential nation”. His national security adviser Jake Sullivan added on Wednesday that there was “no alternative” to the scale of resources that the US could offer — if Congress authorises more spending on Ukraine aid.
The European diplomat expressed concerns when “discussing the tactical situation” with Ukrainian commanders who were aware “they will suffer . . . and it will be very hard for them to make advances”.
The EU had pledged to send 1mn 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine in the 12 months to March, but has admitted that it will fail to hit that target. Officials now say that they will reach a new target of expanding its 155mm production capacity to 1.4mn shells by the end of 2024.
“The old truism still holds true — the side with the most ammunition to fight usually wins,” wrote Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s defence minister, in a letter to Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, sent late last month and seen by the FT.
“The shortage is increasing day by day,” he wrote. “The enemy’s ability to outshoot the Armed Forces of Ukraine by more than 3:1 is only getting worse.”
Umerov said that Ukraine’s “absolute critical daily minimum requirement” was 6,000 artillery shells, but his forces were currently only able to fire 2,000 each day.
Borrell responded in a speech to Ukraine’s parliament this week: “I know that on ammunition your needs are higher than [Europe can provide]. I have been talking with your military staff, and I know that you need more.”
More at the link. If you can stomach it.
I know President Biden means well, but the US only gets to be the essential nation, or the indispensable one as an often used alternative phrasing, if the US actually is essential. If you can’t keep the promises you’ve made, if you can’t deliver the material you’ve said you will, then you’re not essential nor indispensable. Putin, his catspaws, lackeys, surrogates, and lickspittles have been making this argument since sometime between 2007 and 2009. The PRC under Xi, often using more subtle formulations, has been making the same argument too.
Since the US is currently sidelined because of Trump ordered Republican intransigence in the House and the Senate, you may be wondering how that EU aid package is coming along.
Brussels is hoping to release its first payment to Ukraine under a new long-term €50bn, four-year financial aid package in a matter of weeks, but the rest of the landmark support measures will be tied to Kyiv meeting reform demands. https://t.co/XKCfprLTZx pic.twitter.com/3cxgwnhI2W
— Financial Times (@FT) February 9, 2024
The Financial Times has the details:
Today, the EU’s neighbourhood commissioner tells me that Brussels could make its first payment from a new financial support fund for Ukraine early next month.
Brussels is hoping to release its first payment to Ukraine under a new long-term financial support package in a matter of weeks, according to neighbourhood and enlargement commissioner Olivér Várhelyi — but the rest of a landmark support package will be tied to Kyiv meeting reform demands.
Context: on February 1, EU leaders agreed to set up a €50bn, four-year financial aid package for Kyiv inside the shared EU budget, to support the country’s economy as it continues to fight back against Russia’s invasion. The bloc’s previous package of €1.5bn monthly payments ended in December.
“For the bridge financing . . . the first part of March is our ambition,” Várhelyi said in an interview. “This is an absolute must, especially with what is going on now in the US.”
“This way we will be back on track . . . and will help them with their financial difficulties,” he added.
With that payment made, work will turn to setting up a more formalised cash-for-reforms plan agreed between Kyiv and Brussels for Ukraine to receive the rest of the €50bn in quarterly instalments.
Ukraine is an EU candidate country, and so the concept is to link the ongoing financial assistance — which Kyiv says is essential to keep the state running as the war rages — to the reform path required of prospective members of the bloc.
“Our funding is not just aid. Our funding is based on conditionalities and deliverables. So basically now we need to see a credible plan, reform plan, from Ukraine. It’s almost done, basically,” Várhelyi said.
“So, yes, it is a flexible instrument and will move fast now with the bridge financing so not to have any financial gap . . . this is an opportunity created in the facility to ensure liquidity and the safety of payments in Ukraine, which we will do,” he added. “But other than that, everything is linked to delivery.”
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
Finland sends 22nd military aid package to Ukraine valued at up to 190 million euros.
Finnish defense minister Antti Häkkänen also announced, that the country is currently preparing a long-term plan for support to Ukraine.
In addition, Finland has decided to participate in the… pic.twitter.com/Jwtb9AoEka
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 9, 2024
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
A new assistance package from our Lithuanian friends reached Ukraine. The package includes essential winter equipment & tens of thousands of warm clothing sets.
Thank you, Lithuania! We highly appreciate your staunch support.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹@Lithuanian_MoD https://t.co/v5nK2swJJY— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 9, 2024
🇱🇹🇺🇦Lithuania continues unwavering military support to Ukraine
Today, a new assistance package reached Ukrainian Armed Forces: essential winter equipment & tens of thousands of warm clothing sets
Each support package is an important step towards victory against brutal agression
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
Norway provides more NASAMS to Ukraine.
The Government proposes to the Norwegian Parliament to order a further 10 launch units and 4 fire control centers valued at NOK 3.45 billion.
We are grateful to our Norwegian partners for their unwavering support. Air defense systems are… https://t.co/NsW8TOPI2T
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 9, 2024
The whole quote tweet:
Norway provides more NASAMS to Ukraine.
The Government proposes to the Norwegian Parliament to order a further 10 launch units and 4 fire control centers valued at NOK 3.45 billion.
We are grateful to our Norwegian partners for their unwavering support. Air defense systems are crucial to saving the lives of Ukrainians.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇴
@Forsvarsdep
Зеленський вручив Золоті зірки Героїв України Залужному і Буданова pic.twitter.com/CavyUXwCw6
— Oleh Novikov (@olehbatkovych) February 9, 2024
Zelensky presented the Gold Stars of Heroes of Ukraine to Zaluzhny and Budanov
The Golden Star Order for decorated heroes pic.twitter.com/dP7LMTQTDK
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 9, 2024
And military intelligence chief Budanov is now a Hero of Ukraine, too – it’s official. pic.twitter.com/LxUvNb2BlK
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 9, 2024
From the President of Ukraine’s site:
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy handed over the Golden Star Orders to the servicemen who were bestowed the title of Hero of Ukraine and to the families of the fallen warriors who were bestowed the highest title posthumously, as well as the Crosses of Military Merit.
The ceremony took place in the White Hall of Heroes of Ukraine at the Mariyinsky Palace in Kyiv.
“Today, we bestow state honors and the title of Hero of Ukraine upon the warriors who, alongside all those who have stood up for our country and Ukrainian life, shape the destiny of Ukraine. Ukraine has already managed to halt Russia’s advance. Ukraine has learned to defend itself exactly as needed to win,” the Head of State emphasized.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine never sought this war, but when Russia came to destroy our state and our independence, Ukrainians were not afraid to stand up for it and inspired the whole world with their courage.
“We are all proud of every Ukrainian warrior! Ukraine will always be grateful to each of its soldiers, sergeants, officers and generals who have done everything to keep Ukraine alive. Ukraine will always remember all its people who gave their lives in the struggle for our independence,” the President said.
For outstanding personal merits in the protection of state sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, selfless service to the Ukrainian people, the President bestowed the title of Hero of Ukraine and presented the Order of the Golden Star to General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2021-2024.
For personal courage and heroism displayed in the protection of state sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, the President bestowed the title of Hero of Ukraine and presented the Order of the Golden Star to Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
The Head of State also presented the Golden Star of the Hero of Ukraine to Lieutenant Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vyacheslav Aheiev. During massive enemy attacks, the anti-aircraft missile division under the leadership of Vyacheslav Aheiev destroyed a large number of enemy air targets, including ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as UAVs. In May 2023, it was Lieutenant Colonel Vyacheslav Aheiev’s unit that destroyed a ballistic target for the first time.
hief Sergeant Anatoliy Banatskyi, who took part in assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, was bestowed the title of Hero of Ukraine. In particular, during the battles near the village of Kopani, Zaporizhzhia region, Anatoliy Banatskyi fulfilled his task and assisted in the evacuation of wounded and fallen servicemen. Thanks to coordinated assault actions, the unit managed to push back the enemy, capture its stronghold and gain a foothold on the designated lines.
Staff Sergeant Oleksandr Kostenko received the Golden Star of the Hero of Ukraine from the President of Ukraine. As part of a mobile group, Oleksandr Kostenko neutralized enemy positions and destroyed an ammunition depot and invaders’ equipment in Bakhmut.
The President handed the Order of the Golden Star to the wife and sons of the Hero of Ukraine, Junior Sergeant Yevheniy Volkov. In March 2022, during the evacuation of the wounded in Donetsk region, Yevheniy Volkov informed the battalion commander that a convoy of enemy tanks had been moving in the rear of the unit. Afterwards, he was killed by enemy fire. Thanks to the timely information received, the battalion command managed to move the personnel and inflict losses on the enemy.
The Golden Star of the Hero of Ukraine was received by the family of Junior Sergeant Dmytro Tserakht. During hostilities in the Bakhmut district of the Donetsk region in January 2023, the Junior Sergeant ensured the successful withdrawal of his brothers-in-arms to the main forces. In the battle, he sustained a fatal injury.
There is much, much more at the link!
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
Знаєте що для мене саме тяжче?
Це коли старенька бабуся чи дідусь зупиняє тебе у місті, плаче і каже слова вдячності за те все що ти зробив для нашої держави, поклавши своє здоров’я.
Це просто для мене розрив, я сам ледве утримуюсь щоб не заплакати.🥺
— Пан Беседа🇺🇦 (@vlad_beseda) February 9, 2024
Do you know what is more difficult for me?
This is when an old grandmother or grandfather stops you in the city, cries and says words of gratitude for everything you have done for our country, risking your health.
It’s just a breakup for me, I can barely hold myself back from crying. 🥺
https://tenor.com/bfSPx.gif
Our warriors who just returned home from the russian captivity received child paintings with words of support. Even the smallest Ukrainians believe in the power of the Armed Forces.
Ukraine is a nation that can't be defeated.
📷: @Liberov pic.twitter.com/gd9plSWCG7
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 9, 2024
Illia Ponomarenko has some further thoughts on General Zaluzhnyi’s tenure as Commander of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the change of command announced yesterday:
Valeriy Zaluzhny.
I remember the summer of 2021 – really a time an epoch away from now.
The excitement from having Zelensky, 'a brand new face' in charge of the nation and a hope of major changes, was long gone.
Zelensky was almost completely absorbed by 'the system'. Lots… pic.twitter.com/EWiBGQhgJG
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 9, 2024
Valeriy Zaluzhny.
I remember the summer of 2021 – really a time an epoch away from now.
The excitement from having Zelensky, ‘a brand new face’ in charge of the nation and a hope of major changes, was long gone.
Zelensky was almost completely absorbed by ‘the system’. Lots of shady characters standing behind his back, pulling strings, and whispering things in his ears.
The defense minister is an old grumpy post-Soviet military bureaucrat with an awkwardly incompetent spokesperson and repeatedly failing defense procurement plans.
The defense production reform, along with many other vital reforms, standing still.
Instead, the inception of new bureaucratic monsters filled with shady characters that were mostly engaged in the same bureaucratic ping pong with little to no results seen on the ground.
It’s the same old Ukrainian model of ‘making two steps forward and then immediately a step back.’
Defense Minister Andriy Taran and top general Ruslan Khomchak hated each other so much that they couldn’t stay in the same room and literally waged a legal battle against each other.
Disappointment was growing.
And then, during one of Zelensky’s never-ending team reshuffles, suddenly a new name pops up: General Valeriy Zaluzhny.
I remember the ‘Woooooooow’ cry that rolled through the military and near-military community when Zaluzhny was appointed as the new commander-in-chief.
Not many really knew him beyond the community back then.
A career soldier who went through years of dark decay in the Ukrainian armed forces as a platoon commander then received an extensive military education and gained his stars and his experience in the battlefields of Donbas.
One of ‘the new blood’ brought up by the war of 2014-15 who miraculously managed to stay in the military and gain the reputation of a ‘reasonable commander’ to serve under, as many were saying those days.
A fresh start with a new general in charge? Let’s hope so.
The standing military in Donbas and civil society behind its back were humiliated and enraged by our own then-time own version of ‘escalation management’.
In many outrageous incidents reported from the front, Ukrainian units were prohibited from returning fire upon Russian-led militants unless upon a direct order from high command.
The low-intensity standoff with Russian proxies, in many instances, was supposed to be a one-way road on which Ukrainian soldiers had to patiently observe yet another ‘universal ceasefire regime and be closely watched by OSCE — and Russian proxies could do anything they liked.
Minsk accords, you know.
And then came the days of October ’21.
Yet another deadly incident near the town of Hranitne not far away from my hometown in Donbas.
Two Ukrainian troops injured, one killed in an artillery strike. The Ukrainian command demands an immediate ceasefire, to no reaction.
And then a Bayraktar TB2 receives coordinates.
A missile strike takes out a Russian D-30 howitzer, one of three deployed to the scene. The gun crew flees into the fields.
The enemy artillery finally gets the message and shuts up.
This was the Turkish-produced strike drone system’s combat debut in Ukraine directly authorized by the commander-in-chief.
The strike was rather limited, yet it worked. Now it feels like a tiny episode – but it was a breath of hope that triggered a lot of enthusiasm in Ukraine.
We were tired of burying a company of our soldiers each year and listening to how Ukraine should ‘show restraint’ to avoid having Putin ‘provoked.’
The new top general is not going to sit idle and watch his men die as the enemy spits on the ‘ceasefire’ and enjoys full impunity, we were thinking.
In the hell of the gathering storm of war and the full-scale invasion, we needed this burly guy with a smiley face and a calm pleasant voice.
He was and is an everyone’s unifier beloved and respected including by Zelensky’s most faithful haters. He is and has been the one absolutely everyone wanted to take a selfie with.
We needed his face on a TIME Magazine cover as the symbol of the Ukrainian military– heroic, self-sacrificing, and shockingly effective against the Russian war machine — and we needed the world to fall in love with The General, too.
Zaluzhny had a team and a plan. He would sometimes play the role of an adult in the room behind his boss. And he was getting things done, with as little as he could rely on, in the world’s hardest military job.
He was, of course, not ideal as a military leader.
The Ukrainian military under his command remained impeded by systemic, deeply ingrained issues like endemic bueraucracy, lack of responsibility for decisions, and commanders often not keeping up with the actual situation on the ground.
He tried to be friendly and nice (although many would criticize such a style of leadership). And he tried to be the kind of commander you’d be terribly ashamed to let down.
We will now spend years scrutinizing his strategy and decisions, whether he was right or wrong to stick to his own vision for the 2023 counteroffensive and (reportedly) not to listen to what the Pentagon was suggesting instead.
I think it’s fair to say that, given the fact that his rights and wrongs were to spell the fate of countless thousands of people, he was as popular in the military as it could be reasonably expected.
Zaluzhny has absolutely deserved his golden star and his title of a national hero of Ukraine.
I don’t think Zelensky was right. Time will tell.
What’s good, however, is that the administration, despite all the stupid mess, managed to give the general a decent farewell, and Zelensky and Zaluzhny gave each other a sincere hug.
I think Zaluzhny is going to have some rest, maybe some lecturing at military academies, a New York Times bestselling book of memoirs, and then – an interesting future in the public square.
Post-war time, maybe?
Lastly, General Zaluzhny was a wartime commander-in-chief one (well, at least many of us) could shoot a message to on Facebook and get something done.
Back in the day, a good friend of ours, TV journalist Volodymyr Runets, bought off all TIME copies featuring Zaluzhny he could find when we were in Brussels for a NATO session.
I also tried to get at least a dozen more when I was in Amsterdam later – but nope.
A Facebook message to the big guy – and some dozen copies signed and sold off to get the money and buy drones for the military.
I think that was beautiful.
Support my work: https://buymeacoffee.com/saintanger
Kharkiv:
⚡️UPDATE: Russian attack on Kharkiv causes mass fire, killing 1.
Russian snipers struck a gas station in Kharkiv, creating a large fire that engulfed 15 residential homes, and killed one person, the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office announced via Telegram. One person was also…
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 10, 2024
Editor’s Note: This is a developing story.
Russian snipers struck a gas station in Kharkiv, creating a large fire that engulfed 15 residential homes, and killed one person, the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office announced via Telegram. One person was also reportedly injured. Over 50 Kharkiv residents, including two children, have been evacuated.
The fire is still ongoing. Earlier tonight, Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that the area of the fire was about 3,700 square meters. A dead body was recovered from underneath the rubble at around 2:01 a.m. local time.
Emergency services are still reportedly searching for individuals trapped within the burning buildings. So far, four people have been rescued.
One person is currently being treated for severe burns.
Oleksandr Filchakov, head of the regional prosecutor’s office, told Suspilne Kharkiv that the number of casualties may increase as the situation continues to develop.
Filchakov also revealed details of tonight’s attack on Kharkiv.
“The Russian military previously launched Shahed drones from the territory of the Belgorod region,” Filchakov stated. “Three drones hit the Nemyshlyanskyi district of Kharkiv. As a result, an object of critical infrastructure was destroyed. There was a large amount of fuel, which is why the consequences of the fire were so terrible.”
The Russian military has regularly targeted Kharkiv and settlements in the oblast since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Over the past few weeks, the number of attacks on the city has increased.
Odesa:
⚡️Russian attack on Odesa injures 1.
A Russian drone attack on the city of Odesa injured a 44-year-old man, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported.https://t.co/nO6GYLpeGB
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 9, 2024
From The Kyiv Independent:
A Russian drone attack on the city of Odesa injured a 44-year-old man, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported.
The man suffered a shrapnel wound on his forearm. No further casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure was recorded.
Today’s attack comes only three days after Russian drones targeted numerous cities across the country. At least five people were killed and more than 50 injured across the Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts.
Ukraine’s air defense shot down almost 20 Russian missiles over the country’s capital overnight on Feb. 7, the Kyiv city military administration reported.
Elsewhere in Kyiv Oblast, dozens of houses, several apartment buildings, a cultural center, an educational institution, a post office, and private vehicles were damaged.
This was also not the first attack of such scale during this winter. Russia carried out a number of massive attacks in the past weeks and months, most notably on Dec. 29, 2023, Jan. 2, and Jan. 23.
They’re either saving the ammunition for the Patriot battery for the cruise missiles or they’re bingo ammo. Either of those are ungood!
Kherson Oblast:
⚡️Russian air strike on Kherson Oblast’s Beryslav injures woman, damages houses.
Russian forces launched an air strike on the city of Beryslav in Kherson Oblast, wounding a woman and damaging homes and infrastructure, the regional administration reported.https://t.co/z0wTEWGbvU
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 9, 2024
Russian forces launched an air strike on the city of Beryslav in Kherson Oblast, wounding a woman and damaging homes and infrastructure, the regional administration reported on Feb. 9.
Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson and other regional settlements on the western bank of the Dnipro River, such as Beryslav, in November 2022.
Russian troops were pushed to the east bank, from where they have been regularly targeting the liberated area, resulting in multiple civilian casualties.
A 60-year-old woman suffered a concussion when Russia hit Beryslav and received medical assistance, according to the Kherson Oblast authorities.
The air strike reportedly damaged houses and a critical infrastructure facility in Beryslav.
Russian forces launched 82 attacks against Kherson Oblast on Feb. 8 and overnight, killing two people and injuring one, Oleksandr Prokudin, the regional governor, said early on Feb. 9.
The strikes damaged a medical institution and critical infrastructure in the region, according to Prokudin.
Sumy Oblast:
Russian forces dropped seven KAB guided arial bombs on the communities of Yunakivka, Khotin, and Mykolaiv at 1:45 p.m. local time. The attack destroyed at least four residential buildings, as well as the workshop of an agricultural firm.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 9, 2024
Russian attacks on settlements in Sumy Oblast on Feb. 9 resulted in the death of three civilians, while injuring four others, the Sumy Regional Prosecutor’s Office reported.
Russian forces dropped seven KAB guided arial bombs on the communities of Yunakivka, Khotin, and Mykolaiv at 1:45 p.m. local time. The attack destroyed at least four residential buildings, as well as the workshop of an agricultural firm.
Two men and one woman were killed in the attack. No additional information was provided about the status of the injured victims.
Emergency rescue workers are on scene to clear the remaining debris. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has been called in to investigate the attack.
Shelling is a daily occurrence for the communities near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia. Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces launched 41 attacks on Sumy Oblast, targeting 11 communities, and causing at least 251 explosions in the area.
Donetsk:
Our Donetsk.
The city of our childhood in enemy hands, now as seen through the eyes of a Ukrainan drone. pic.twitter.com/Ou6mazei5o— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 9, 2024
This is a sight for sore eyes.
Photo appeared in Ukrainian media of an F-16 with Ukrainian insigniahttps://t.co/UidOnva525 pic.twitter.com/L8KREbTI78
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 9, 2024
From Voice of America News: (machine translated)
Ukrainian pilots trained in the United States and the EU on fourth-generation Western F-16 fighters are “very impressed” with this aircraft. At the same time, retraining has its challenges, because this fighter is very different from the Soviet Su-27 and MiG-29, on which Ukrainian fighter aircraft now fly.
This was reported in an interview with the journalist of the Ukrainian Voice Service of America Maria Prus told the military pilot of the Air Force of the Armed Forces on the call sign Phantom.
He also spoke about the impressions of Western instructors from the training of Ukrainian pilots, the readiness of infrastructure in Ukraine to accept these fighters and how other aircraft, somehow A-10 or Gripen can strengthen the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
The interview was edited for clarity and fluidity
Maria Pruss, Voice of America: I recently spoke with American aviators Peter Greenburg and Trevor Hercten, and they talked about their initiative when they collect military equipment, equipment, various equipment and pass it on to Ukrainian pilots. Tell us how much they helped you. And can there also be some other areas where they help you?
Phantom: Yes, I know these two gentlemanmen personally and they really help our guys in the Air Force and so in army aviation: both with aviation equipment, aviation uniforms, ie flight overalls.
And usually, in principle, a lot of help comes from our pilot partners. It started a long time ago, from the 97s, when, if I’m not mistaken, our pilots visited an air show in the United States on their Su-27 aircraft (Ukrainian pilots participated in air show in 1992 in Canada and the United States and in 1997 in air show in Britain – ed.). And then it continued during joint military exercises “Pure sky” in 2011 and in 2018 (at the exercises “Safe Sky” – ed.). It was extreme training.
And already the pilots could personally get to know each other, to establish closer relationships during these exercises. Both our pilots and their pilots shared experiences. We learned how Western air forces conduct air operations. That is, our pilots were already gaining experience. And this event helped not only our guys in their combat capabilities, but also they received these invaluable personal acquaintances with them. And then, when the full-scale invasion began in 2022, it was close relationships that helped us getmany different and material and intangible things.
MP: Recently in an interview, the pilot on the call sign Munfish told about training on F-16. He, like the dead pilot Andriy Pilshchikov Juss before also said, that Ukrainian pilots tried to prepare on their own, they studied the theoretical basis that they could find in open sources. And Munfish also said that there is informal communication with Western pilots.
Phantom: It all started with these acquaintances that were during the training. So everyone communicated with the pilots in person through various means of communication. And in principle, when the war began, not only Trevor and Pete helped our pilots in parallel.
And when the question of retraining pilots for a new type of aircraft began, even before it was known which aircraft would replace our outdated Soviet park, we have already started working on changing the concept and preparation. That is, we already understood during these exercises that our approaches, our procedures are very different. And it was the partner pilots, not only American pilots, but also from other countries who formed a kind of online training course so that we knew in which direction to move, to then improve and accelerate retraining on F-16 aircraft.
And, as you know, our guys went to the assessment of one of the air bases in the United States in advance to assess their capabilities, abilities and set deadlines (preparations). Again, these were general terms in which we could invest. And our pilots did not heal in vain, who prepared as best they could, and these same pilots helped us with information from open sources – of course, the one they could share with us, and even with his experience.
So I will say that the guys who went in the first wave were ready and morally, and had a basic baggage of knowledge.
MP: At what stage is this preparation now?
Phantom: Preparation is complete, as planned. Not only pilots are trained, but, as you know, ground personnel are also trained, our mechanics who will serve those aircraft, our support units that will ensure the performance of tasks. They are also preparing.
In terms of time, as planned, about 6 months of training one pilot or one group. But there are nuances, and they are not mostly related to our staff, it is related to the administrative work of our partners, that is, there is its own bureaucracy, and it takes time. Therefore, it affected the preparation time. But she goes according to plan.
And of course, everyone wants to get planes as soon as possible, but usually things are not done that way. Aviation is a very complex system, it is not one tank or one art installation. The plane employs a lot of staff, and it’s a big system. And a pilot or technician is a small cog in a large system.
MP: What challenges do Ukrainian pilots undergoing this training face now? And what do they think about the F-16 in general? What are their impressions?
Phantom: Our pilots are very impressed. This plane simply exceeded their expectations. Even with the amount of information they have received during their studies, they already see great prospects and a great deal of insight into how this aircraft will help our Air Force increase the capacity of our combat aviation. And you can imagine that there is information that they have not yet studied, they have not yet been given what else this plane can be capable of.
As for the challenges, for our guys it’s a new plane and it was a bit difficult in the beginning, because it’s a new generation aircraft, a more diditalized aircraft, it has many systems and programs, which must be entered during the flight and before the flight. We have not encountered this, our training is a little different, and our plane is much simpler than the F-16.
And just like the approach to preparation, to the performance of flights – a completely different. Independent training is required here, no one stands over the soul, so it was a little difficult for them to change mentally. But, as I said, they are very motivated and the desire to learn
Much much more at the link!
Or if you prefer, here’s the video with English captioning:
The interview is real, but there are some claims the image is photoshopped. Given it was also the above the lede picture for the VOA News article, they may have mocked it up for their reporting of the interview.
I deleted my tweet claiming that the first picture of a F-16 with Ukrainian markings was making rounds. It was a Photoshopped picture of a Danish F-16 stationed at the Skrydstrup air base in Denmark.
I apologize for this. pic.twitter.com/byQjTrKnk1
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 9, 2024
We have an update on that downed IL-26 in Belgorod.
⚡️Danilov: No Ukrainian POWs on crashed Russian Il-76 aircraft.
Despite Russia's claims, there were no Ukrainian prisoners of war on the downed Russian Il-76 transport plane that crashed on Jan. 24, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov told Babel in an…
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 9, 2024
⚡️Danilov: No Ukrainian POWs on crashed Russian Il-76 aircraft.
Despite Russia’s claims, there were no Ukrainian prisoners of war on the downed Russian Il-76 transport plane that crashed on Jan. 24, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov told Babel in an interview that was published on Feb. 9.
https://kyivindependent.com/danilov-no-ukrainian-pows-on-crashed-russian-il-76-aircraft/
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Despite Russia’s claims, there were no Ukrainian prisoners of war on the downed Russian Il-76 transport plane that crashed on Jan. 24, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov told Babel in an interview that was published on Feb. 9.
“I can definitely tell you that our prisoners were not there,” said Danilov during the interview.
A Russian Il-76 transport aircraft crashed in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast on Jan. 24, which Russia claimed was transporting 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) for an exchange.
Russia has yet to provide evidence that there were any POWs on the downed aircraft.
After Russia began circulating its claims, Ukraine requested that Russia return the bodies of the killed POWs home.
Russia’s government never responded to the appeal. Russia also reportedly blocked the International Committee of Red Cross from investigating the circumstances of the crash.
In response to Russia’s claim, Danilov accused Russia of fabricating the story, adding that if Ukrainian POWs were on the plane, Russia would have filmed evidence of the crash site for propaganda purposes.
Danilov said that “biological material” would have been present in large quantities, as there was at the crash site of downed Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 in 2020.
“There was nothing like that there; they had the whole story prepared,” Danilov said. “They have nothing to show because if this had really happened, the picture would have been completely different.”
Anonymously U.S. officials told The New York Times that an American-made Patriot missile system was likely responsible for the plane crash. According to the officials, the plane was also likely carrying at least some Ukrainian prisoners.
U.S. officials report that Ukraine likely acted on weak intelligence as the plane was previously used to transport missiles, making it a valuable target for Ukraine’s military.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has opened a criminal case into the matter.
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
/2. Location of the Ilsky oil refinery
(44.8556768, 38.6081725) pic.twitter.com/igC8mPpP9S— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 9, 2024
/4. ELOU AT-6 – the most powerful technological unit for oil refining at the Ilsky Oil Refinery. Launched at the end of 2020.
Columns K-1, K-2 and K-3 are large-sized equipment. K-1 height is 28.5 m, diameter is 3.2 m, assembled weight is about 70 tons. K-2 rises above the… pic.twitter.com/jaL9Cl2e62
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 9, 2024
Somewhere else in Russia:
Photo of the Ukrainian jet kamikaze drone found somewhere in Russia, shared by Russian media pic.twitter.com/2QA9s6ECZ7
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 9, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Have a good Friday ☺️ Sending you good vibes and sincere licks 👅 pic.twitter.com/BAFEP1O8nh
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 9, 2024
Open thread!
Carlo Graziani
Ponomarenko is great, but he has blind spots. He failed to mention one of the absolute greatest contributions that Zaluzhny has made to Ukrainian statehood: agreeing to surrender his job when his civilian superior required it, despite the temptation to exploit his popularity for a campaign against the government to keep his job.
The example that he has thereby set will be very important to the future of Ukrainian democracy.
Alison Rose
Sadly, those who don’t are the ones running things now.
The fact that so many people are perfectly fine with abandoning Ukrainians and letting them die is so fucking disgusting to me, I barely know what to say. Part of me wishes they would be Freaky-Friday’d into the bodies of people living in the Donbas or something, so they could experience the terror themselves.
Republicans are worthless trash.
Thank you as always, Adam.
P.S. there is a weird line of text appearing multiple times in your post ending in .gif. I see it about half a dozen times.
HinTN
@Carlo Graziani: Yes, and this from Zelenskyy
reads like a defense of the actions at Bakmut, which many have condemned.
It’s fucking complicated.
YY_Sima Qian
Thanks Adam as always.
In recent months, specifically wrt the War in Gaza & the slow motion regional conflagration in the ME, the PRC MFA has become quite direct & pugnacious in its criticism of the U.S.’ role in the region & the world, accusing it of being the primary (direct or indirect) source of death, destruction & anarchy outside of the West, all in service to preserve its hegemony. Xi has made the same arguments in only slightly more veiled terms in his intern addressed to the CPC Party-state bureaucracy. It is a concerted strategy based on opportunistic efforts to undermine the U.S.’ claim to global leadership & hegemony, specifically in the minds of the non-Western countries that is the intended audience. The PRC’s rhetoric has sharped considerably as the Sino-US Great Power Competition has deepened, coinciding w/ the sharpening rhetoric from the US that challenged the PRC’s regional/global behavior (some well founded, some not so much) & even the CPC regime’s legitimacy (more frequently under Trump).
While not entirely w/o merit, the stance is transparently cynical & hypocritical, given the PRC rhetorical embrace of Putin & support to the Russian economy & industry, as well as lack of meaningful aid provided to the Gazans. As one example, the PRC (or the rich Gulf States states for that matter) could backfill the funding to the UNRWA that some of the Western countries have frozen, especially given the PRC’s claimed preference for an equitable international order is the primacy of the UN systems (same as Putin & most countries of the Global South, but each for different reasons).
Of course, to the extent that Xi’s (& Putin’s) messages have any purchase around the world, it is due to past & current policies implemented by the US outside of the core of West countries, & it is not enough to just call out Xi’s or Putin’s (or Modi’s or Ramaphosa’s) opportunism, cynicism, or hypocrisy. As Adam said, the US actually has to perform to enhance global peace & stability, as well as address the intense, widespread & rising dissatisfaction outside of the West (& sometimes w/in parts of the West, when the US decides to be unilateral & coercive) w/ the current “rules based international order” that is defined (or rather, ill-defined) by the US & the West.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Completely agree. & the way Zelenskyy & Zaluzhny carried themselves during the ceremony was decent damage control after weeks of rumors, leaks, speculation & uncertainty. We will have to see how Syrsky performs. Of course, there is only so much either Syrksy or Zaluzhny could do or could have done w/ a dire shortage of artillery shell & air defense missiles. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces has to stay on the defensive strategically in 2024, then Busanov’s work in Russian occupied territories & in Russia takes on greater importance.
Both Zaluzhny’s & Budanov’s awards are well deserved.
Another Scott
TheHill.com:
Politics is slow.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Lyrebird
@YY_Sima Qian: May I ask your opinion? Do you think the anti-US sentiment is at a point where I should avoid sending new-years messages to our sfaik not politically connected friends in the PRC?
YY_Sima Qian
@Lyrebird: No, is not nearly that dire. We need more people to people & cultural/scientific/trade exchanges across the Pacific, so that the paranoia of the natsec people on both sides is not the only equity under consideration, & that people view each other as human beings rather than caricatures & faceless threats.
As a US citizen living in the PRC through the Trump years & the pandemic, I have never encountered any animosity from either your leverage Chinese or any part of the Party-state bureaucracy, nor have my American coworkers visiting the PRC again after the COVID travel restrictions have been lifted.
Most of the external rhetoric is still posturing, & internal rhetoric more aimed at galvanizing domestic technological advancement, “de-risk” from US supply chain dependencies, & justify changes to the political economy in the name of natsec (pretty much mirror what is happening in the US).
PRC actions remain much more subtle & risk averse.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Lyrebird
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for offering that! And enjoy the Lunar New Year!
I worked for a company once with an office in China, and we were so jealous of their much more generous number of holidays.
ETA: our family is hoping that your coworkers and everyone else’s coworkers will travel there more and bring airfares back down :-)
YY_Sima Qian
@Lyrebird: Thank you & and Happy Spring Festival to your family, too!
The number of vacation/national holidays in China is not that much more generous than in the US, we are all jealous of our French colleagues. Can’t find anyone in August.
I hope the airfare comes down again, too, as that is one of the major hurdles for resuming people to people exchanges. However, that is contingent upon the 2 governments agreeing on resuming al of the flights…
ColoradoGuy
@YY_Sima Qian: Glad to hear things are still good at the person-to-person level. Our societies are so intertwined that a conflict would be a disaster for the whole world, not just Asia.
YY_Sima Qian
@ColoradoGuy: There are ways upon which the US is being singled out in PRC policy. In recent months, the PRC has been unilaterally waiving visa requirement for short term visitors from an increasing number of Asia Pacific & European nations, to ease cross border business & boost inbound international tourism. The beneficiaries have been countries that are at least not overtly skeptical of or hostile to the PRC.
I do not expect the US to go on that list for loooooong time to come.
YY_Sima Qian
There it is:
If Bibi’s plan is to “evacuate” the Gazans into the Sinai Peninsula (as there is nowhere else for them to go, the rest of Gaza has been pulverized), it will blow up the ME in multiple ways. The Biden Administration’s plans for regional rapprochement & peace, already rather detached from reality, will become moot. The Gulf States’ will probably have to walk away from their proposals. The Camp David Accords will likely be ripped up by Egypt. Iran & the “forces of Resistance” that it sponsors will gain support, prestige & legitimacy in the Arab street, & all of governments of the Sunni Arab states that have been trying to normalize relations w/ Israel will take a hit on their legitimacy.
PRC diplomats will opportunistically cast the blame on the US for “aiding & abetting” a humanitarian catastrophe & destabilizing the region, but that won’t stop the PRC from turning around & conduct business as usual w/ Israel, whether its leader is Bibi, Gantz, or Lapid.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: President Erdogan of Turkiye has also bitterly attacked Israel for it’s war on the citizens of Gaza but as some of his critics point out, Turkiye has not impeded the flow of Azerbaijani oil to that nation. Turkish imports from Israel are down 40% since the war started and there seems to be a public boycott of Israeli goods, but in this area Erdogan’s bark has been worse than his bite.
As to the forcible transfer of Gazans to the Egyptian Sinai, reports are that in the early days of the war, Netanyahu asked Presidents Biden and Macron as well as PM Sunak to press Egypt’s President to allow Gazans into Egypt. The response was, “No way, President Sissi won’t stand for it and neither will we.”
The subject keeps coming up and when it does countries like the UAE announce publically that this is a red line for them. Israel is often seen as unconstrained by any nation including the US, but they really need the support given them by European countries like Germany, France and the UK, as well as support from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE before, during and after this war. This support is both diplomatic and economic. An expulsion of Gazans to Egypt would radically change those relationships, and I think Israel is deterred in this particular matter.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: You could be right, but it seems that the current government in Israel wants to keep probing for an opening that would allow them to ethnically cleans substantial parts of the Gaza Strip. To “destroy” the 4 Hamas battalions in Rafah, the IDF will have to launch ground assault into what is now a massive refugee camp. Given the current IDF way of war, the civilian casualties will be horrendous. Allowing the civilians to evacuate 1st is compliant w/ international law, but there is nowhere for the Gazans to evacuate to. Areas to the north have already been pulverized, & would the IDF really allow elements of Hamas that will inevitably be hidden among the refugee flow to return to northern Gaza, where the IDF has failed to thoroughly clear the area? That leaves the Sinai.
It seems to me that Bibi & the far right faction in his coalition wants to create a dire humanitarian emergency to force everyone’s hands to allow the refugees to flee through the crossing.
YY_Sima Qian
From the Guardian:
YY_Sima Qian
From WaPo a couple of days ago:
The shortage of soldiers maybe an even greater challenge than the shortage of artillery shells. All the weapons & munitions that do flow to Ukraine still need to be manned, fired & maintained. There has been reporting that suggests Zelenskyy & Zaluzhny finally fell out over mobilization plans?