(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Just a brief update tonight. Was a not long enough weekend after a very busy week.
There are no updated daily addresses or speeches on the President of Ukraine’s website. I expect those will resume tomorrow. I think the reason for that have been the meetings that President Zelenskyy has been attending. Here is a clip from remarks he made about Russian military actions:
Answering if Ukraine will lose more territory, Zelensky stated that around Kupiansk, Russia's artillery intensity is 1:7. To effectively push back Russians, it needs to be 1:1.5 – 1:3. Until then, we'll hold the line or lose meter after meter. pic.twitter.com/4bd4Mdl0yF
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 25, 2024
The Russian opened up on Kostiantynivka today.
Tonight, Russia bombed the railway station in Kostiantynivka. With Avdiivka fallen due to ammo shortages, civilians in neighboring cities face imminent danger. pic.twitter.com/nJL3nZjmZ6
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 25, 2024
Another Russian attack on civilian infrastructure. Today, Kostyantynivka train station was destroyed. It was at this station that I first arrived in the Donbas 14 years ago. I traveled to/from here 100+ times since. After Russia's 2014 invasion, it became final eastern rail stop. pic.twitter.com/hUsQYhpNet
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 25, 2024
US estimates last autumn put the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed around 70,000, or roughly double what Zelensky claimed at his press conference in Kyiv today.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 25, 2024
An important trip to the frontline with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.
Awarded our soldiers. Those who defended Avdiivka. Those who covered the withdrawal of their brothers in arms from the city. Those who destroyed the enemy.
10 years of defense of Avdiivka is a feat that will go… pic.twitter.com/0GcV7Qp3qB
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) February 25, 2024
An important trip to the frontline with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.
Awarded our soldiers. Those who defended Avdiivka. Those who covered the withdrawal of their brothers in arms from the city. Those who destroyed the enemy.
10 years of defense of Avdiivka is a feat that will go down in history books. You have caused irreparable losses to the enemy.
The Polish government is still having trouble preventing extremists from attacking Ukrainian grain shipments being moved by truck through Poland.
These pictures show 160 tons of destroyed Ukrainian grain. The grain was in transit to the port of Gdansk and then to other countries.
The fourth case of vandalism at Polish railway stations. The fourth case of impunity and irresponsibility.
How long will the government and… pic.twitter.com/fMVdtBgl3i
— Oleksandr Kubrakov (@OlKubrakov) February 25, 2024
These pictures show 160 tons of destroyed Ukrainian grain. The grain was in transit to the port of Gdansk and then to other countries.
The fourth case of vandalism at Polish railway stations. The fourth case of impunity and irresponsibility.
How long will the government and the Polish police allow this vandalism to continue? Once again, all these agricultural products are transported in sealed railcars and are in transit to other countries. We are strictly following the law. And you?
Yevpatoriya, Russian occupied Crimea:
Dozens of Russian T-62s at the railway station in Yevpatoriya, Crimeahttps://t.co/hYeMzuBPaV pic.twitter.com/bPkJj9hxkm
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 25, 2024
President Volodymyr Zelensky has told the US that Ukraine needs the $60bn aid currently stuck in a congressional stand-off within a month. “Our position on the battlefield will be weaker [without it],” Zelensky said in Kyiv on Sunday. via @IKoshiw @FThttps://t.co/dqG8vAPMjd
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 25, 2024
The Financial Times has the details:
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told the US that Ukraine needs the $60bn aid currently stuck in a congressional stand-off within a month.
Zelenskyy said the long-awaited package was about military not financial support and that he was unsure Ukraine would be able to find the types and amounts of weapons it needed if the funding did not materialise.
“Our position on the battlefield will be weaker [without it],” Zelenskyy said, speaking at a conference in Kyiv on Sunday.
He gave the example of US-made Patriot air-defence systems, which have helped protect key cities from Russian missiles, but cost around $1.5bn and which Ukraine could not afford without US support.
Zelenskyy said Europe could not replace the US in terms of weapons supply, pointing to the continent’s shortage of air-defence systems, although he said it could supply more long-range missiles.
The EU has provided Ukraine with a €50bn aid package, but this is mostly financial rather than military support.
If the US does not pass the bill, “it will leave me wondering what world we are living in”, Zelenskyy said, but added that he was confident that the US Congress would ultimately agree to the package. Although Ukraine would “search for others, loans and exert pressure on partners” if needed, he added.
Following Zelenskyy’s comments, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan pressed Republican congressional leaders to unlock assistance to Ukraine.
“We need money to be able to provide the weapons to Ukraine. We don’t have the money. Only Congress can provide the money,” Sullivan said in an interview with CNN on Sunday.
He called on House Speaker Mike Johnson to “bust through the politics in his caucus” and put US President Joe Biden’s aid package request to a floor vote.
Zelenskyy reiterated during his speech that Ukraine had no plans to enter into negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite the deteriorating situation on the front and the gap in crucial military aid from the US.
Russia has not been invited to the four peace talks Ukraine has held over the past year in Europe and the Middle East, with the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, saying that the Kremlin would only be asked after a change in Russian leadership.
Zelenskyy characterised negotiating as a dead end for Ukraine and Ukrainians. “The hardest bit was two years ago and we have no alternative. If we lose, there will be no us,” he said.
He also rebutted reports that Ukraine’s military losses were in the hundreds of thousands, citing a total of 31,000 soldiers killed but declining to confirm injury numbers. Russia’s total casualties were around 500,000, he claimed.
But Zelenskyy’s figures fall well short of the 70,000 Ukrainians killed that US officials gave to The New York Times in August — and many more have died since while repelling fierce Russian attacks in Ukraine’s east, where Russia is trying to capture land.
Ukraine defence minister Rustem Umerov, who also spoke at the conference, said that half of western military aid was being delivered late, leading to the loss of territory and people.
But overall, Ukrainian officials emphasised their belief that western support would continue and that they would be able to find solutions in order to win the war against Russia.
“We already have a plan for 2024, but we will not talk about it publicly. The plan is powerful, strong and will give us not only hope but a result in 2024,” said Umerov.
To mitigate the deficit created by wavering US support, Ukraine planned to triple domestic weapons production, said Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries.
He added that Kyiv also aimed to build its own air-defence system this year and introduce Ukrainian-made land drones on a large scale, adding that Ukrainian-made weapons had proved effective and were inexpensive.
“The war will not be won by those with the most resources but by those who use them most effectively,” said Kamyshin.
More at the link
Peter Fouche has some additional thoughts on the lack of support:
URGENT message by Peter Fouche directly from the frontlines to all free nations – Ukraine NEEDS HELP NOW! pic.twitter.com/s25o4rZC3l
— Marko Mihkelson (@markomihkelson) February 25, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Why I actually love these ducks, is because they remind me what we’ll have this summer😍 Dreams come true. Thank you, Denmark ❤️🛩️#Denmark #F16 pic.twitter.com/KrB22zZmXf
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 23, 2024
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’ve got to rack out. Everyone is most welcome. Catch everyone tomorrow!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Yutsano
Patron is very sleepy pupper.
Alison Rose
Thank you as always, Adam.
Jay
Poland’s 5th Column, Collaberationists and their tolerance for it, is going to bite them in the ass just like it did in WWII. When it’s their turn in the barrel, they will be screwed.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Ummm. This is a really misleading statement. The photo looks like a helluva lot more than 160 tons of grain on the ground. Consider that a single covered hopper (how grain is transported by rail in N.A) holds 100 tons of grain. Just eyeball’n but to this ol’ railroader it looks like more than several 100 tons on the ground. Of course the word “destroyed” is doing a lot of work here. Most of that grain will be using Polish laborers to scoop it up with a skip loader and put it back in the railroad transport.
Jay
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
Most Hopper cars in NA, have to unload over a pit, or in some cases, loaded on to a tilting platform, over a pit, and empties them out from one end.
Static in a yard or on a siding. only a certain amount will dump out before the piles of grain block the hopper doors and prevent further grain from falling out of the hopper car.
Some of the grain can be salvaged, if it was dumped on dry ground and stayed dry. If it got wet, the whole grain car is at best, animal feed.
Andrya
Thank you as always, Adam.
I do not understand the attitude of the Polish saboteurs and the Polish police/government towards Ukrainian grain shipments. Do they not understand that putin has explicitly said that he believes he has a mandate from G-d to restore the full extent of the USSR and the russian empire? Do they not know that Poland was part of the russian empire in the late 19th century and therefore an extremely likely putin target if (G-d forbid) putin conquers Ukraine? (To be clear, late 19th century Poland was directly ruled by the Tsar- it wasn’t a satellite state with a puppet government.)
I don’t know anything much about late 19th century Poland, but I do about late 19th century Finland (also part of the russian empire during that time). Life for Finns under russian rule was pretty miserable- intense pressure to abandon Finnish language/culture and become russian, tyranny by russian military and petty officials, religious pressure (Finns are majority Lutheran, not russian Orthodox), and intense sexual harassment of young women by russian soldiers quartered in their family homes.
As I said, I don’t know much about Polish history in the late 19th century, but I doubt it was much better. And Alexander III was bad, and Nicholas II was worse, but putin is much, much worse than either.
Can anyone explain to me why Poland is doing this? I realize sabotage takes only a few people, but the police refusing to prevent or prosecute it, and the government allowing this?
PS (Maybe a bit off topic.) If anyone is interested in late 19th century Finland, one of the best novels I ever read was “Deep River” by Karl Marlantes. Though a work of fiction, it incorporates the experiences of several Finnish families who emigrated to America around 1900 to get away from russian rule. (One family had a father who disappeared into the Czarist gulag because he tried tried to protect his daughter from sexual harassment by russian troops.) And this novel taught me to appreciate the wisdom of Amendment 3 of the Bill of Rights- no quartering of troops in private homes except in wartime by special authorization of Congress.
Jay
@Andrya:
Post WWII and during the Cold War, a bunch of “ruZZian” Colonialists moved into Poland and stayed. Plus, for decades after the war, Polish leadership were all Communists, reared in ruZZia, before and during WWII.
It should be “easy” under the law to clear the blockades and prevent the vandalism/terrorism, but, the Reich Wing Parties in Poland are reliant on their votes.
A few days ago I linked to the facebook page, (via Nitter) of one of the organizers, and it’s all, all, ruZZian and Soviet hailiography. Not one Polish meme.
When Putin comes, Poland is screwed.
Grumpy Old Railroader
True. However I can recall in the near distant past when North America had bumper crops and a railcar shortage. The work around was to use boxcars, with the door open on one side and a makeshift half door and pour in 30-50 tons of grain. That may be the case here as I have seen Ukraine and Russia (same track gauge and similar equipment) use bottom dump covered hoppers like you describe. I think the photos are of equipment that is either old or is for another commodity but has been commandeered for grain shipments.
And yup, agreed they better scoop it up muy pronto because any moisture will ruin the whole lot
Bill Arnold
More (artful) ambiguity on the A-50 downing:
“Two weeks”: Budanov answers how long the operation to destroy A-50 was being prepared (UNN (a Ukrainian news site, also with English language articles), February 25 2024)
“Two weeks” is, BTW, a common joke in the tech world, maybe elsewhere. (How long will it take to do? “Two weeks.”)
Jay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R31hMWs25UI
Perun and Proff. Joseph Brock discuss the Air War in Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perun
Andrya
@Jay: Thanks, that clarified much for me. They are Quislings in the most literal sense.
And, question to everyone: As a vegetarian, I had to wonder about Patron looking forward to a bright future with the ducks. Does he think they will hang out as friends after the war? Or is he looking forward to duck steak? Or neither, this is some hip cultural thing that I’m too stick-in-the-mud to understand?
Jay
@Andrya:
Patron’s “ducks” represent F-16’s.
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya: The ducks make him think of the F16’s Ukraine is supposed to get this summer.
way2blue
I was encouraged this morning to see that United24 raised $7.8M toward the purchase of marine drones in ~36 hours. A sum that includes my modest contribution. So as to not feel so completely powerless in the face of Speaker Mike’s ineptitude.
Andrya
@Jay: @Gin & Tonic: Thanks! I realize that I was extremely out of it not to get this.
Subsole
@Jay:
Taking is one thing.
Holding is another.
Jay
@Subsole:
ask the ReThug party what a bunch of Quislings can do from the inside.
Subsole
@Jay:
Your point is very well taken. My point also stands. Taking is one thing. Holding is another.
The Russians are getting drubbed, and they haven’t even occupied the country yet. They are looking down the barrel of a long, bloody insurgency, if they manage to conquer Ukraine.
Also worth remembering that our quislings here in America have, in fact, been getting absolutely manhandled in every election since the Shame of 2016.
I would not count Democracy out just yet.
Jay
@Subsole:
anti-ruZZian insurgencies, in Occupied Ukraine, haven’t amounted for much since 2014.
That’s because the ruZZian’s rape, torture, deport, imprison and kill anyone who even looks at them sideways.
They still hold Crimea, by flooding it with ruZZian “settlers”, are doing the same in Mariupol, hold much of Lugansk and the Donbass, despite a decade. Razing cities to the ground and killing everyone is an effective tactic for holding onto rubble.
Jay
@Subsole:
How’s that Ukrainian Aid bill coming?
Sadly, as Adam has pointed out many time, the Western ROW can’t just “pick up the slack” when the US goes AWOL, which it has.
Sebastian
Rumors on Telegram about Igor Gorkin found dead in his cell. No confirmation yet.
Anoniminous
In 1918 the German Imperial Army fired an average of 8,000,000 shells a month from (roughly) 28,000 howitzers, mortars, and guns. It is reported the Ukrainians were firing 240,000 shells a month to maintain parity with Russia. The US manufactures 28,000 155-millimeter howitzer rounds a month but hope to amp that up to 40,000/month in 2025. EU says they plan to produce 1,400,000 shells a year, 166,000 shells a month, by the end of this year. The fact is the West is not logistically prepared for modern war.
Subsole
@Jay:
Ukraine aid? We’re not done fighting over it yet. Maybe we should just stop though, since everything is already a foregone conclusion?
I mean, what would you like me to say, Jay?
Fuck it all, we’re doomed? All is lost now and forever because it isn’t fixed today?
I genuinely don’t think that is so. But maybe I’m wrong. I will freely admit you guys are a lot smarter than I am when it comes to this shit.
I just know that I need to do something, and all this sitting around staring into the abyss – which is all we seem to be doing here – is feeling more and more like far, far less than nothing.
Back to the point:
Yes. Quislings can do horrible damage. They have done and are doing. Here and abroad. They still haven’t won, and I don’t intend to let them without a fight.
I keep saying taking is one thing and holding is another because I don’t really see the Ukrainians giving a shit if Putin tells them they’re conquered. Or the Poles, for that matter. Or the Balts, Litvaks or anyone else. I see them fighting. One way or another. Until the Russians fuck off and leave them be. But I’m not Ukrainian, Polish, or Litvak. So what the fuck do I know about it, really?
I do know they don’t seem to be giving up there, so we dare not here. At least that’s how I see it. All I can do is organize and vote here so that they can get the help they need over there. So that’s what I’m doing. If you know a better way to spend my energy, tell me.
Subsole
@Anoniminous:
How do smart rounds and such alter that math, if at all?
Jay
@Subsole:
Modern arty is much more accurate and long ranged than WWI and even WWII guns.
105 and 152 are not “smart” shells.
Some 155 are, some are just dumb.
ruZZia currently is firing about 10,000 shells a day across all fronts, towns and villages. Ukraine can respond with 2000, tops.
As I mentioned the other night, Slava and his crew have been going in to combat in their Leopard II, with 2 HE and 1 AP shells, and 250 rounds, about 6 seconds worth of 7.62 machine gun ammo.
AlaskaReader
@Sebastian: Gorkin …or Girkin?
Jay
@Subsole:
Donate if you can, drones, medical supplies, vehicles, be a pain in the ass to your Rep, Congressperson, MP, what ever, be loud, join NAFO, tear down Vatnicks.
I hate so say this, but at some point, we need to take a close look at “whom” we allowed in our countries.
Jay
@AlaskaReader:
Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin aka Igor Ivanovich Strelkov
wjca
I think what Jay is saying above (Jay, please correct me if I’ve misunderstood) is that, on current evidence, Putin would be willing, perhaps even eager, to simple kill every adult Ukrainian (except, perhaps, some collaborators). Ukranian children, depending on age, being simply relocated into Russia and “adopted” by Russian families in order to brainwash them into good Russians. And land in Ukraine doled out to Russians moved there for the purpose. In short, full scale, flat out genocide.
Ditto in the Baltics, when he gets there. (Although, the evidence of Ukraine notwithstanding, he may still harbor the illusion that their Russian speakers would greet Russian troops with flowers.) Poland might be a bit harder, if only because he would be running out of Russian replacement settlers by that point. (Combination of falling birth rates and slaughter of young men in battle.) But he might well decide that leaving large areas empty would be acceptable, as long as he could eliminate Those People.
AlaskaReader
Some backstory
AlaskaReader
@Jay: …what I said.
Subsole
@Jay:
I understand tube arty is dumb. I was thinking more of HIMARS and such modern systems versus WW1 era.
Part of the reason for those weeks-long mass barrages that just devoured shells was that you had to absolutely drown those trenches in hi-ex to suppress the defenders and keep them from manning their emplaced machineguns and cutting your advance to ribbons. Ditto the Siegfried Line in WW2, from what I understand. Has nothing much changed on that front? I find it hard to believe technology hasn’t altered the old equations somewhat.
I mean, shit. If I can fly a drone with a shrapnel charge on it through your pillbox’s firing slit, then my shell requirements have dropped quite a bit, no?
I ask because I have seen plenty of video of those little helicopter drones you can buy off the shelf doing some genuinely bloodcurdling shit to guys in foxholes.
I understand that is not the entire problem facing Ukraine. I am simply curious about how the newer technologies are impacting older paradigms.
Andrya
@Jay: What???!!!!
The immigrants now in dispute- primarily from Latin America, also from the Caribbean, Asia, and Africa- have no correlation, none, with supporting putin. I’m fine with refusing to let Dimitry Peskov immigrate to the United States, but he doesn’t want to. Even with Maria Butina, the problem wasn’t that she was a legal resident of the US- the problem was that she was distributing Kremlin money, as well as sex, to conservative leaders. (She could have done both on a tourist visa, or in meetings abroad.) Becoming immigration Nazis would not help the russian influence problem at all.
ETA: typo elimination
Jay
@wjca:
yabutt,
with Ukraine prostated, 5 to 10 years of looting of Ukraine, lands, peoples, factorys, ruZZia would have rebuilt enough military to go after a NATO member.
It’s a long game.
Putin resettled Crimea with ruZZians, is already resettling Mariupol.
Keep in mind that when Putin left East Germany after the Cold War, his prized possession was a washing machine. The Soviet Union did not have those.
A lot of the Soviets that “liberated” (snark) the Baltics and Poland, stayed, because their “liberated” houses had wood floors, running water, carpets and curtains. 79 years later, only 20% of ruZZian housing has running water, non wood heat, or a toilet.
But yeah, the ruZZian’s are engaged in genocide.
Jay
@Andrya:
case in point, used to daily visit a war news blog, that during the Gulf Wars, was pretty good. Then over time, it went off rails, by 2016, it was a ruZZian propaganda website, (and North Korea, Iran, etc).
Because I used to comment, and am not an idiot, I learned that the blogger was a Russian National, with a Permanent Resident’s Visa, who had lived in Montreal for 32 years with out ever applying for citizenship.
Slava had his citizenship in 2 years and ditto his family when he brought them over.
Blogger guy ran a locksmith company in Montreal, along with a physical and digital security company.
Last week, along with two other Montreal residents, (Visa not citizenship), he was arrested by the FBI for smuggling $84 million dollars worth of sanctioned computer components to ruZZia.
Is my point clear?
Subsole
@wjca: I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s Vlad’s plan for Ukraine, because by now that’s pretty much what he’s going to have to do just to hold it. Because no way are those people going to give in. He’ll have an East-European Vietnam on his hands. Only worse because these folks are going to be facing annihilation.
I know the Russians are up for genocide. Fighting an insurgency? Maybe. They’ll certainly try. Beating an insurgency? I have doubts.
As for the rest of Europe? The key is America. If Conservatives win here, Vlad wins. If they lose (and lose badly enough) we can pull Russia’s teeth for real.
Andrya
@Jay: It’s clear, but I don’t think it’s valid.
The russian influence operation does not depend on US residence. They can do plenty from abroad, or getting into neighboring countries.
Saying “let in no russians” would expel legitimate refugees. Would you want to deport Navalny’s two adult children to russia? Or the two russian dissidents who fled to Alaska to escape russian mobilization, and are now applying for asylum.
My interpretation of your post was a call for a general tightening of immigration- which would fall on the heads of legitimate refugees and immigrants from poor countries in the global south.
If all you mean is “don’t let in known propagandists/provocateurs, such as Maria Butina, why “I hate to say it”? Nobody would object to that, although the agents to be excluded might not be so easy to identify.
It’s almost midnight on the west coast, so I’m turning in. I won’t be able to reply before 1pm tomorrow (PST).
Jay
@Subsole:
Drones have changed the battlefield. “Smart” weapons have changed the battlefield. Long range weapons have changed the battlefield. Better SAM systems have changed the battlefield. EW, ELINT, etc have all changed the battlefield.
Ukraine does not have enough, and right now, only their domestic drones and missiles can hit ruZZia, in ruZZia.
Give Ukraine 20 Tarus missiles or long range ATACM’s and the Crimea beach party will be on as the ruZZian troops starve.
While a $980 dollar drone can drop a 40mm mortar on a foxhole or suicide into a vehicle at a 15 mile range, a 155 mm cluster shell can kill everything in 400 square metres at a 55 mile range. For the grand cost of $800.
Even with guided shells, better guns, tactic’s and experience, Ukrainian gunners say they need to have a 1: 1.5 ratio to ruZZian arty. Quite simply, they are seeing the ruZZian tanks and infantry form up, (drones), launch an assault, and can’t do anything about it. It’s up to the infantry to do the job at close range, which costs them heavy losses.
Subsole
@Jay:
Would they though?
Russians don’t seem to be very good at actually building shit these days. Stealing shit? Yeah. Stripping it for parts and selling it off so some Vory can plow more money into the London real-estate market or some Republican’s megachurch/child-trafficking academy? Sure.
But building? I mean, what industry is going to be left to rebuild? He’s going to have to just flatten everything. And if he doesn’t, the Ukrainians will, because fuck him. They know they are facing genocide. Why hold back?
I don’t see how a conquered Ukraine ends up as anything but a shell. And I have a hard time seeing Vlad’s nation of locusts rebuilding it when they are already living in poverty themselves. I mean, fuck. These people can’t even rebuild their hollowed out, rotted-through carcass of a state. They’re going to rebuild a gutted-out warzone??
Vlad’s best case here is he ends up being Emperor of the Ashes.
Jay
@Subsole:
Chechnia. Who supplies the “Blocking” forces to the ruZZain army in Ukraine?
Well yeah, as a Chechen, you get a carte blanch to kill ruZZians, but,…….
Subsole
@Jay: Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s at least a small part of why conservatives are so dead set against overhauling immigration and customs…
Gotta focus on those Venezuelan single mothers instead of some Russian asset who’s here on a visa for political consulting work.
Same way they lost their shit when the IRS got enough money to actually start going after deadbeat billionaires.
Jay
@Subsole:
yeah, and “Gold Cards”,……
In Canada, if you have had a Permanent Resident Visa, for 2 years, you can get Citizenship easy.
There are a few countries, where that is problematic, (no dual citizenship),
but, every immigrant I know, (except for some shady ruZZians) has grabbed for that passport at first chance.
The guy, who was just busted, just applied , after his arrest, after 30 years, for Canadian citizenship.
In the 80’s, in Vancouver, we took in a bunch of ruZZian refugees. Now the Red Dragons, (a Vietnamese drug gang at the time, now they are multicultural) who were from 1975, all got citizenship, first chance they got. We can’t deport them back to Vietnam, ( and most of the founders, are my age now).
A swack of the ruZZians formed the White ruZZians and brought gang shoot outs to public streets in the day time. The leader of the White ruZZians was killed in the middle of Hastings Street, in front of the A&B record store by the PNE, in traffic, at noon.
Every single member of the White ruZZians who was arrested over the years, was deported back to ruZZia because even though they were eligible before their arrest and charges, not a single one applied for Citizenship.
Subsole
@Jay: I understand the issue facing Ukraine, and where it is coming from. It is infuriating. I can fight or I can despair. Dwelling too long on the cravenness and sheer injustice of my countrymen invites despair and, frankly, less charitable urges. They suck and it sucks. All we can do is do what we can, and hold on until we can do more. And then do more.
I am interested in those fire ratios. I wonder how much of that is due to Ukraine being a mixed-system military? They still use a lot of old Russian kit. If they had more of our kit, would that ratio change? Is there a point where the returns level out, or it’s more advantageous to use the old dumb stuff? (I think I read somewhere about using overpressure from hi-ex rounds to detonate minefields, for example.)
Subsole
@Jay: I was under the impression most Russian blocking forces came from the Gulag. (Half-joking…Ok. Quarter-joking.)
What type of force does Chechnia supply? Light infantry? Armor? Gunships? Because if all you’re sending me is a bunch of guys with AKs, yeah. That’s useful. But eventually it will be insufficient to solve the tactical problems the West can throw at me.
The Napoleon of the East has burned through a lot of the most advanced kit his army can realistically field. If he’s counting on newly-appropriated Ukrainian factories to pick up the slack, seems he might want to be a bit more careful where he’s flinging those Kalibrs.
I suppose he could buy from China, but I don’t know if they’d sell. If I were a ChiCom, I don’t know if I’d trust the Russians to keep my gear out of the hands of the Western powers.
Maybe discount-rack NorKor gear?
Subsole
@Jay: That is fucking mental. Like, that’s some Cartel-grade shit right there. That’d raise eyebrows here in Guntopia. I cannot imagine how it went down in Canada…
Jay
About 3/4rds of Ukraine’s arty and tank kit, (older tanks are used as arty) is Soviet/ Ukraine. And the barrels are wearing out.
152 mm dumb shells.
Part of the problem, even with the US, is that the bench wasn’t that deep. Canada donated all of our M777’s and ammo to Ukraine. All 28. Our arty now trains on 1950’s 105mm guns, (often borrowed for avalanche control in the Rockies).
Post Cold War, the whole thing was expeditionary warfare against insurgencies, so every body, went light, ( the economy did not help).
Belgium for example, got rid of all their tanks, heavy AFV’s, flackpanzers, ( a few went elsewhere, most wound up being bought by a scrap metal company*) and switched to lighter wheeled, air portable systems. Few of which have been delivered. They signed up for the F-35, of which they have none, yet, but are shipping tranches of F-16’s as they are upgraded, to Ukraine. Who knows if they will have any F-16’s to cover the gap between F-35’s actually showing up.
We are not geared for war.
As was discovered in WWI, WWI, the Korean War, regular arty is not much use against minefields, barbed wire or barriers. When the Canadian’s crossed the Rome Line in Italy, after several tries and massive losses, they discovered that bulldozers creating a ford across a river, then several rods through the steep hills and vineyards, on the flank, worked. When the US Army broke through the Rhine, it was bulldozers building ramps over the Dragon’s teeth and filling in the tank traps that lead the way.
Since then, “line charges” have been made. Basically, a rocket carries a “firehose” filled with explosives out, is dentonated, and creates a path. Ukraine has only a few, and it clears a couple hundred metres at a time. Both Ukraine, (less) and ruZZia have various remote mine laying systems, from arty to aircraft. In the late summer, Ukraine was very sucessful in laying mines behind ruZZian assaults that had spent the previous night, clearing a path forward. When the ruZZian’s tried to retreat, a road that had been clear less than a hour ago, was not. Boom.
Subsole
@Jay:
I’ve seen those line-charges you’re talking about.
All I could think was “Sweet Jesus I’d hate to have that land in my trench…”
Jay
@Subsole:
Tanks, aircraft, infantry, actual “Shock Troops”, but they mostly fill a rear area secure roll, terrorizing the occupied and killing ruZZians when they retreat, or ruZZian Officers they have an issue with, while stealing everything not bolted down, like zoo animals.
Jay
@Subsole:
While NATO uses them to clear minefields, ruZZia has used them in Syria and Ukraine against city blocks.
Jay
@Jay:
BTW, I mean stealing animals from zoos, and goats.
*the scrap metal company is referbing a bunch of what they had in storage and shipping it to Ukraine. What they can’t fix, get’s stripped for parts and sent to Ukraine.
For 800,000 Euro’s, you can buy a fully upgraded Leopard 1 for Ukraine. Gepards go for 600,000 Euro’s.
Carlo Graziani
The NYT on the long collaboration—preceding the onset of the war—between CIA and Ukrainian Intelligence and Security agencies (gift link).
The whole thing is worth a read. Here’s one tidbit that I thought was interesting:
I recall arguments that we had here concerning the continued presence of US IC personnel in Ukraine after the supposed “evacuation”—I could not understand why folks would believe that the US would, for the first time in the history of foreign conflicts in which it was entangled, withdraw its intelligence assets. But there was a definite sense here that the Biden administration’s pusillanimity guaranteed that those personnel were all gone from Ukraine. I am relieved to definitively know, now, that this was not in fact the case.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Gee, where have we seen that before?????????
Subsole
@Jay:
So is that Kadyrov’s bunch? I seem to recall Adam being…unimpressed…with their actual combat capacity. May be misremembering.
Though as you point out, if all they have to do is brutalize civilians and shoot stragglers in the back, they don’t need to be good soldiers…
Jay
@Subsole:
yup, Kadarov the Goat Fucker’s Chechens.
The point is, it took less than 10 years for many of “the Chechens”, to go from “we don’t want to be part of ruZZia, Jihad!!!!!!” to being ruZZian Empire Delusion “enforcers”.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: As I wrote yesterday, it is very curious why this is all coming out now, & to such detail. I am sure Russian intelligence analysts reading the article could deduct where the underground facilities described is located (unless that it was deliberately planted misinformation), as well as potentially gleam specific penetrations by the Ukrainians.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: It looked to me like a very controlled release of information, with coordinated sources on the US and the Ukrainian side. It may be an effort to shape the context for journalism and journalistic sources/leaks on the topic, a little like the controlled release of information on nuclear weapons in the Smyth report after WWII (i.e. “thus far, and no farther”).
It could also be a mix of stuff that the Russians know already and some subtle disinformation. The assertion that the CIA teamed with Ukraine in part because it had trouble recruiting agents in Russia seems fishy to me, given the huge amount of extremely high-quality intentions intelligence that the US is known to have had on the Russians in October 2021. One could imagine the piece is in some part an effort to mislead the Russians on CIA recruiting success.
RaflW
Maybe a comment for tonight’s thread, but as I noted elsewhere this morning, I’m hopeful that Hungary finally getting whatever side deal they needed and passing Sweden’s membership in NATO could lead to quick (in relative terms) transfer of some Saab fighter jets to Ukraine.
Bill Arnold
@Carlo Graziani:
That is a good piece, and with enough human-interest color to keep even easily-bored people reading. e.g.
Also (searching for that sentence), the word “fish” is used 11 times in the piece.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
“Not far away” might be doing some heavy lifting. Probably less than 50 milliseconds away, though. :-)