(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: Everyone is most welcome. I am reading the comments, though often the morning or afternoon after I do the update as things have been a wee bit busy. I’m not stressing that comments sometimes fall off in terms of numbers, so no reason for you all to either.
As I start drafting tonight’s update, at 7:36 PM EDT, the central third of Ukraine is under air raid alert.
Russia took down a major Ukrainian power generation facility.
Russia fired over 80 missiles and drones at Ukraine overnight, primarily targeting critical civilian infrastructure.
Six of them were ballistic missiles. Ukraine remains the only country in the world facing ballistic strikes. There is currently no other place for "Patriots" to…
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) April 11, 2024
Russia fired over 80 missiles and drones at Ukraine overnight, primarily targeting critical civilian infrastructure.
Six of them were ballistic missiles. Ukraine remains the only country in the world facing ballistic strikes. There is currently no other place for “Patriots” to be.
I am confident that if those on whom their provision to Ukraine depends spent at least one night in Kharkiv all necessary decisions would have been made quickly. And I would be ready to go together with them.
Overnight, russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure with 40 Shahed UAVs and 42 missiles of various types.
Ukrainian air defenders shot down 57 aerial targets, including:
• 39 Shahed UAVs
• 16 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles.Ukraine needs more air… pic.twitter.com/Xmk0YCVlsQ
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 11, 2024
Overnight, russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure with 40 Shahed UAVs and 42 missiles of various types.
Ukrainian air defenders shot down 57 aerial targets, including:
• 39 Shahed UAVs
• 16 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles.Ukraine needs more air defense systems. Only strong international support can help us to protect our people and infrastructure from russian terror.
❗️All 100% of the generation of the state-owned energy company Centrenergo was destroyed.
The Tripilska Thermal Power Plant was the largest supplier of electricity to the #Kyiv, #Cherkasy, and #Zhytomyr regions. pic.twitter.com/4myY0EEutj
— KyivPost (@KyivPost) April 11, 2024
Russia attacked Trypilska power station, the largest in the Kyiv region. This facility has been targeted multiple times before and was undergoing restoration. pic.twitter.com/HjMPOioQON
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 11, 2024
President Zelenskyy attended the Three Seas Summit today. Here is the joint press conference he did with the President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda and the President of Poland Andrzej Duda.
Lithuania:
Thank you, Lithuania, for standing firm by our side. We highly appreciate your unwavering support.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/DUpHDgYey7— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 11, 2024
Estonia:
Dear @KajaKallas, you are correct to draw such parallels. This is the most responsible moment in European history this century. If Ukraine's partners act decisively, I am confident that we can defeat Russian terror before it spreads further. Thank you for all of your efforts to…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 11, 2024
Dear @KajaKallas, you are correct to draw such parallels. This is the most responsible moment in European history this century. If Ukraine’s partners act decisively, I am confident that we can defeat Russian terror before it spreads further. Thank you for all of your efforts to rally support for Ukraine and all of our Europe.
Poland:
Polish FM: “The EU has spent double what the U.S. has spent on helping Ukraine. We are often suspected, in the U.S., including in Congress, of being free riders. Well, on this one, we have done the right thing. We now need 🇺🇸 to do what the President has promised” pic.twitter.com/DaZuQt1rDG
— Isa Soares (@IsaCNN) April 11, 2024
This is why Poland closed its airspace near the border with Ukraine this morning and scrambled fighter jets.
How about instead, we help Ukraine shoot these missiles down (and prevent Russia from firing them in the first place)? https://t.co/S8Fupq4jHg— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 11, 2024
The US:
Not enough
— John Sipher (@john_sipher) April 11, 2024
John Sipher is the former Chief of Moscow Station. He is also correct.
GEN Cavoli, Commanding General of US European Command (EUCOM) and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Here’s the link to the transcript of his prepared remarks. Here’s the link to the video of the hearing. I want to highlight this portion of GEN Cavoli’s prepared testimony via Giorgi Revishvilli and the Thread Reader App:
Very insightful points from General Cavoli’s statement today:
– Ukraine cannot sustain this fight alone. The United States, our allies, and partners must continue to provide Ukraine with munitions, weapons, and materiel. 1/14On Russia:
Russia relies on the mass and quantity available to a large country, and despite its military’s evident deficiencies and dysfunctions, continues to pose an existential threat to Ukraine. 2/14During this conflict Russia’s strategic forces, long range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10% of their fleet. 3/14The navy has suffered significantly in the Black Sea – but nowhere else and Russian naval activity worldwide is at a significant peak. 4/14Russia has suffered, losing over 2,000 tanks and 315,000 soldiers wounded or dead. However, Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested. 5/14The army is actually now larger – by 15 percent – than it was when it invaded Ukraine. Over the past year, Russia increased its front line troop strength from 360,000 to 65 470,000. 6/14Regardless of the outcome of the war in 94 Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded. 7/14On Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran:
This [Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran] block of adversaries is more cohesive and dangerous than any threat the United States has faced in decades. 8/14The PRC, Iran, and DPRK are sustaining Russia’s economy and enabling it to continue its aggression in Ukraine. This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an increasingly challenging international security environment. 9/14As of March 2024, the DPRK provided Russia with roughly 6,700 containers that could contain up to three million artillery shells. Iran has provided Russia with drones, artillery, and missiles that have enhanced Russia’s lethality in Ukraine. 10/14This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an 107 increasingly challenging international security environment. 11/14On China:
Certainly, PRC is closely watching the conflict in Ukraine – learning military lessons, political lessons, and trying to project those onto China’s own interests. 12/14Moreover, PRC’s increased support for Russia reveals the depths of the Chinese Communist Party’s commitment to partnerships that challenge our collective security. 13/14The continued “No-Limits” partnership between PRC and 🇷🇺 positions PRC as a formidable adversary to European interests. This partnership is not just diplomatic; it extends to informational, economic, and military realms, aiding nations that exhibit hostility and aggression. 14/14@threadreaderapp unrollAdditional points:General Cavoli “They [Ukraine] are now being outshot by the Russian side 5-to-1. That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks. We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically” /
The situation is extremely serious. the biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery … and should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying.” /If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order. /I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math. Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses. /The U.S. provides the “lion’s share” of 155mm caliber artillery shells to Ukraine and is also the main supplier of the country’s ground-based air defense — “the most critical things on the battlefield. /Russia’s frequent large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine are expected to become more devastating as Ukraine’s supply of interceptors for air defense dwindle. /“Those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against. Without U.S. provision of interceptors, that will happen.” end/Don’t forget to subscribe to my Substack – Russia Analyzed – for the latest insights and analysis on Russian foreign and security policy and the war against Ukraine. cutt.ly/pw9h2qju
Japan:
Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to the U.S. Congress just now: "Japan will continue to stand with Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/BYJxATIUZQ
— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) April 11, 2024
Brussels:
BREAKING — Parliament refuses discharge of the Council budget until European Council decided to support Ukraine with additional Patriot anti-missile systems ! pic.twitter.com/zDvA4xyUct
— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) April 11, 2024
Michael Weiss bring us another assessment from Karl, the Estonian military analyst via the Thread Reader App:
It’s been a minute, but we have a new thread from “Karl,” the Estonian military analyst, on the war in Ukraine. With @holger_r:“Let’s start with the strategic view first. The U.S. has grown even more cautious and inept. Congress is exactly at the same place as the last time we spoke. For a brief moment, 1-2 weeks ago, it looked like they might be closer to a deal but today there is no certainty about it.”“The Republicans are still delaying. There’s no clarity about an aid package or a loan package or a combination of them. It’s the same as it was half a year ago. Ukraine has been losing territory on the eastern front unequivocally because of the stalled U.S. aid.”“On a positive side, the Czech ammunition initiative has brought considerable results and there is hope that first shipments will arrive on the frontline shortly. This is mainly artillery ammunition. Remarkably, the Czechs have managed to include aid from neutral or even Russia-friendly countries – India, Pakistan, even Serbia.”“The Macron initiative can also be regarded as positive from a strategic perspective. Estonia has historically been hesitant about the strategic autonomy concept and so far the French talk hasn’t included much military contribution. But insisting that France and other countries’ troops might be on Ukrainian territory even if only to train has really irritated Russia.”“If France really did it, the Baltic countries, probably Poland and Czechia, maybe the Nordic countries and the UK, would join in. This would be a nice coalition to train Ukrainian troops. It is not such a big step, actually, because, as has also been publicly stated, de facto the special ops are already there.”“France has always wanted to project a larger geopolitical role in relations to the U.S. than it has actually possessed. Now that the U.S. has left a vacuum, Macron sees an opportunity to take advantage of.”“This new France initiative has been weakened by direct condemnation from the U.S. and German leaders though. If we add the U.S.’ views about Ukraine hitting Russia’s oil and military targets, the American position has become embarrassing — especially considering that they can’t contribute anything to help Ukraine themselves.”“Does derives more from Biden’s team’s domestic considerations to keep the topic off of election discussions as rising oil prices wouldn’t not play well in elections? Is it a strategic fear or a combination, I can’t judge.”“On the frontlines Russian pressure is strong. Since we spoke last time Ukraine has lost Avdiivika, Russia has advanced north-west of Bakhmut, west of Avdiivka, at Pervomaisk and maybe also on the southern frontline. It has been on an operational level, but it is consistent and systematic.”“The reason is Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and weaponry to deter Russia’s planes. The Russian glide bombs just completely destroy Ukraine’s defense positions and there is no option but to retreat to new positions.”“Again, it is because of no U.S. aid package. The last U.S. package in March was $300 million. It was smaller than the aid that Denmark announced on the same day. Since then, nothing. It really makes itself felt on the frontlines.”“There is no reason to fear that Ukraine’s defense might collapse. It is not so tragic. Ukrainian top officers and people close to them are more optimistic than the West is. They say Ukraine might lose some ground in the next months but there is no fear of Russia breaking through the defense.”“But Russia will continue to progress primarily on the eastern front. There are also signs of very strong Russian pressure on areas that Ukraine won back last summer by Robotyne and Verbove.”“Ukrainian society has finally managed to deal with the change of the commander-in-chief. There were fears that it would divide the society more than it did. Ukrainian people understand that this is not a reason to break up their own society and they need to fight regardless of which personality they like more.”“The frequent missile and drone attacks on Kharkiv and Odessa are a concern. These are large, strategically and symbolically important cities. Russia’s goal is to make life as uncomfortable there as possible.”“This especially applies for Kharkiv where they haven’t been hitting anything else but residential areas over the last weeks. Kharkiv is also so close to the border that Ukraine’s air defense can’t do much against the S-300 missiles. Occasionally they also pound the city with glide bombs and drones.”“Russia also continues to destabilize Moldova. They have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine attacked targets in Transnistria. They are flying the leaders of the Gagauzia region to Moscow. The only aim is destabilization of the country ahead of the presidential elections in autumn. Currently Russia lacks the ability to intervene in Moldova militarily.”“Ukraine’s Rada will pass the new mobilization law any day now but the demobilization issues will be handled with separate acts. The troops who have been on the frontline for over 2 years have received some breaks but of course they want more. That said, the same situation is worse for Russian units.”“Russian bloggers wrote a few days ago that the new mobilization will be in May. Now they rephrased saying that it definitely will not be in May. The wording is important here. This suggests it can be in June or July.”“Considering their huge troop losses especially at Avdiivka they will need to announce a new mobilization wave. They can’t man their units gathering between 15-25k troops a month. I doubt they would be able to deploy more than that a month regardless of what they say themselves. Russia often knowingly ‘manufactures’ its success and tries to sell it to the West.”“Especially if Russia plans a large new offense, they will need mobilization. Right now they are not capable of attacking Kharkiv from two directions – from Kupyansk in the east and across the border from Belgorod – simultaneously as has been speculated.”“The so-called Russian volunteers operations in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk showed that Russia doesn’t have any serious units there. Otherwise the ‘volunteers’ wouldn’t have been able to go in and out for several weeks.”“Russia’s offense on the Kupyansk direction has also clearly stalled. The activity was much higher there still 1-2 months ago.”“Regarding Russia’s next large offensive, the more realistic direction would be to continue from the Donetsk direction. Putin’s first goal was to fully conquer Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia has seen some success in 3 directions there: Avdiivika in the center, Bakhmut to the north and to the south in Pervomaisk.”“A logical next direction would be towards Chassiv Yar west of Bakhmut. It would open up directions towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which are the largest free cities in Donetsk oblast. Kramatorsk is also home to Ukraine’s eastern HQ.”“Ukraine’s air defense is weaker and since they don’t have F-16s, Russia can cause a lot of harm with the glide bombs. F-16s would bring at least a bit of relief to it because their operating radius is larger. When Russia can’t bring their bombers closer, their accuracy goes down. Already they have bombed occupied areas and Russia’s own territory.” /END
DTEK Group Ukraine:
❗️russia launches missile and drone attacks against two DTEK power stations in #Ukraine
russia launched #missile and drone #attacks against two DTEK power stations early on Thursday, inflicting further serious damage on Ukraine’s thermal power generation facilities after… pic.twitter.com/1muqLlHvMi— DTEK Group (@dtek_en) April 11, 2024
❗️russia launches missile and drone attacks against two DTEK power stations in #Ukraine
russia launched #missile and drone #attacks against two DTEK power stations early on Thursday, inflicting further serious damage on Ukraine’s thermal power generation facilities after multiple massive attacks in recent weeks.
There were no casualties among our workforce, however an initial assessment has shown that the assault caused serious damage to power station infrastructure.
DTEK teams are working intensively to repair and restore power as soon as possible.
Over the past three weeks, DTEK has suffered its worst attacks since russia’s full scale invasion in 2022 – on March 22 and then March 29 – destroying around 80% of its available capacity.
DTEK will continue to do everything possible to protect and preserve Ukraine’s civilian energy system from russia’s illegal aggression. Our thermal power plants have been shelled almost 170 times since February 2022 and we are appealing to governments and foreign partners for help sourcing power generation equipment.
Kyiv:
A message from #Kyiv regional utility CEO: You see it and sense it yourselves… Reduce power consumption between 7 pm-10 pm every day. For the rest of 2024. https://t.co/xZAWSCVUH6
— Roman Waschuk 🌻🍒 (@WaschukCanUA) April 11, 2024
Here’s the machine translation of Sergey Kovalenko’s original tweet:
Evening
Let’s do it. You saw and felt everything yourself. It can be evaluated in different ways. You and I can assess this only because of the presence of light in homes and on production sites.
What can we do now? Save consumption during peak hours. And if there are many of us, it will work. Ago. From 19 to 22 hours. Daily. Please save electricity. Daily. The whole year 2024. Let it become a habit.
Thank you! Everything will be fine
ps: make a repost and drop it in the chat rooms…
Kharkiv:
Early this morning, russian forces struck Kharkiv with ten S-300 missiles. In the afternoon, they attacked the city again during the workday. Just imagine any European city with a population over a million in place of Kharkiv, where more than 5,000 buildings are destroyed.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 11, 2024
The Kharkiv Oblast authorities have decided to mandate the evacuation of families with children from 47 settlements within the region that regularly face russian shelling. Yet, numerous residents remain in these areas, preferring to stay in their homes despite the risks.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 11, 2024
Incredible work by the Food Train team and their special guests yesterday! 🚂🍲 https://t.co/VvqMsRDVky
— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 10, 2024
Ukrainian border guards destroyed a russian "Pole-21" electronic warfare system in the Kharkiv region.
📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/gLrVFJBFnZ
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 11, 2024
The Zaporizhzhia front:
Russian assault group tried to attack Ukrainian positions on the 'Ural' truck. Zaporizhzhia front:
“ "Ural" and enemy infantry were destroyed on the Orikhiv direction.
Russians tried to assault the positions of the Ukrainian defenders on the URAL, while the truck was moving, a… pic.twitter.com/ygLbRcGj0o
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 11, 2024
Russian assault group tried to attack Ukrainian positions on the ‘Ural’ truck. Zaporizhzhia front:
“ “Ural” and enemy infantry were destroyed on the Orikhiv direction.
Russians tried to assault the positions of the Ukrainian defenders on the URAL, while the truck was moving, a mine blew up and the crew began to run away.
Next, the remaining enemy personnel were killed by drone operators with grenade drops, and the enemy’s transport was finally destroyed by the FPV drone strike.”
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material:
Another visit from our dearest friend @natemook pic.twitter.com/gf67ci9s6R
— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 9, 2024
Caturday lunch in Kherson 😻 Denis filled up Hachiko feeders in his city between the air raid sirens. This homeless Ukrainian kitty was very hungry! pic.twitter.com/FxUVf5EnCU
— Nate Mook (@natemook) April 6, 2024
— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 8, 2024
Open thread!
Devore
Thanks Adam. Maybe the Europeans will start doing even more
Adam L Silverman
@Devore: The problem, as GEN Cavoli made clear, is that the US is the only state that can really provide the 155mm shells and the air defense interceptors.
hrprogressive
While I use this ongoing series as my primary source of Ukraine War news at this point…I’m just not sure what else to say on a nightly basis.
For reasons previously outlined, I think it’s pretty clear the Fascist GOP has no desire to actually see Ukraine win, because they are hoping to be a part of the Fascist Axis across the world if the rest of western liberal democracy doesn’t wake the hell up and stop them before it’s too late, and that means Russia winning the war and destroying/subjugating Ukraine before advancing on the rest of Europe.
I could be wrong, and I guess there could be some package that finally gets through, but recent comments by Fascist Speaker Johnson suggest continued refusal to do it, citing the border which we all know is a red herring because the Democrats and Biden could pledge to “Build the Wall” tomorrow and I don’t think the Fascist Caucus would change their mind, so.
Obviously lots of things are not actually “inevitable”, but, like.
Something needs to change, and it is likely something us mere observers can’t predict at the moment.
I’ve yelled into the void enough, and I just don’t have the energy to do it all the time, and on this little corner of the web, it’s not going very far, anyway.
Honestly, would almost like to see one of these with a focus on Israel/Hamas because that is arguably of even greater concern in the short term, it would seem…
Thanks.
Odie Hugh Manatee
I don’t say much in these threads but I read them every single night. Please don’t feel like you are not getting eyes because I am sure that people are just frustrated that the Republicans are blocking any aid to Ukraine and their people. Republicans siding with the Russians. They hate communism and love communists.
How in the fuck do those thoughts occupy the same mind at the same time? Fucking traitors in our midst.
Gin & Tonic
@hrprogressive:
While this is undeniably true, I wish I could say that it is clear that the Biden administration *does* have a desire to see Ukraine actually win.
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
Ksmiami
@Gin & Tonic: they need to man up. Tell the GOP to fuck off and save Ukraine. Fuck this shit
Jay
Adam, any insight into this?
Why is it that any time a rock get’s turned over, there are ruZZian’s there?
I guess the FBI is too busy reviewing Hillary’s Emailz?
frosty
Thank you Adam. I’m still reading these every night. In despair, looking for One Weird Trick. Like repurposing the Laundry Act for Ukraine assistance. Or MTG booting Pastor Johnson and Jeffries taking over. Or my R Rep and the other Ukraine supporters kicking ass in their caucus.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
yeah, they don’t, the Biden Administration has made it clear beyond doubt that they want a “negotiated settlement” with ruZZia getting Crimea, Donbass and Lugansk and some kind of worthless treaty so the US can go back to business as usual with ruZZia and Ukraine will just have to “tolerate” the genocide.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: First I’ve seen it. Link?
Another Scott
@Jay:
That’s not what I read coming from Biden. His remarks from September 21, 2023:
CSCE.gov:
Biden and the US isn’t going to set the conditions for the end of the war – that’s for Ukraine to decide because they are the ones doing the fighting. But it’s clear to me that the US wants VVP out of Ukraine.
That’s my view. YMMV.
Cheers,
Scott.
SpaceUnit
@Odie Hugh Manatee:
Yeah. I don’t comment much in these threads either because reasons, but fuck the GOP for doing Putin’s bidding.
There needs to be a reckoning for these traitorous assholes.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1778177939995238848
Jay
@Another Scott:
Actions mean more than words.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
WTF???
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: I’m not very good with this Internet stuff. Where has he used the words “victory” or “defeat”?
jackmac
I comment once in a while but lack the expertise that many other participants offer. Nor do I have a unique perspective or knowledgeable response. So I generally prefer to read Adam’s excellent summaries and the comments they generate and learn something.
My eyes are on this every night and it remains a must-read. Thanks Adam!
Aziz, light!
If defense moved this slowly in 1941 we would all be speaking German.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
Again, actions, not words.
https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1778110227599982992
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
He’s the president, not Zeus.
Redshift
I still appreciate the posts and read every one. I’m just too heartsick to have anything to say.
Good stuff today from Mark Warner, but of course the Senate isn’t the problem…
wjca
I would say that it’s pretty clear by now that they want to see Ukraine lose.
FDRLincoln
The GOP licking Russian ass and the fundamentalist Christians worshipping the antiChrist…interesting times indeed.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
He is surrounded by advisors who advocate that the US never “escalates”, that Ukraine cannot bomb ruZZia or Crimea, that giving Ukraine the weapons that will help them win, will result in Nuclear War, and like Muskrat and Schultz, is geofencing Ukraine, and then, your NatSec “state”, the House, Senate is filled with ruZZian’s.
The EU, which you guys have dissed for years, is more important to Ukrainian defense than the US.
The US is no longer a reliable security partner.
SpaceUnit
Dear God.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
The EU Parliament has frozen the EU budget today, nobody get’s a penny, by a vote of 519 to 63, until EU Member States “cough” up 7 Patriot Batteries for Ukraine.
Germany sent the first two, out of their stock of 11.
The Netherlands sent 2 launchers out of their stock of 2 Batteries,
The US has sent 1 out of their stock of 89.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
LNNVA
Thank you, Adam, for doing this every night. I rarely comment, but I so appreciate that you continue to keep us up to date on Ukraine when it seems that no one else cares any more.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
And this is Biden’s fault?
Look, I’m as frustrated as you but keep some perspective.
YY_Sima Qian
I don’t think there is a Russia-PRC-Iran-NK block, yet. There is a loose coalition of convenience w/ Russia being the hub, driven by its thirst for munitions in Ukraine, as well as cash from exports. Thus, it could prove fleeting.
I don’t think there is evidence for any kind of Iran-NK coordination economically or in mil tech. Sino-NK trade & people-to-people links actually collapsed during the pandemic, & just starting to recover. PRC support to NK military modernization has been quite limited, Russia/Belarus are suspected to have been instrumental. The Russo-NK entente is in fact causing disquiet in Beijing, due to fear that it might encourage recklessness on the part of Kim III & cause NK to drift further from the PRC’s influence. The PRC is purchasing lots of discounted Iranian oil, but not providing any mil tech, & the much publicized 25 yr. US$ 400B “Strategic Partnership” from ’21 has yet to amount to anything. The Sino-Russia entente will remain on solid foundation as long as both are targets of containment pressure by the US & the West, & thus each feels that the other provides strong bulwark for their own competitions/hostilities w/ the US.
Nevertheless, not one actor among the 4 will actually fight for any of the other 3. Iran & NK are selling munitions to Russia for cold hard cash & possibly Russian mil tech, I doubt they care one way or the other whether Russia succeeds or fails in Ukraine. The PRC wants to sustain Russia as a secure supplier of commodities & to divert US attention, & has no interest in the Russian Federation’s collapse or dissolution. However, the PRC probably also does not want to see Russia absorb Ukraine & become a true great power again, & it is buying sanctioned Russian hydrocarbons due to the deep discounts. In this Iran & Russia are competitors for the Chinese market.
Iran might have chosen not to sell drones & missiles to Russia if the Trump Administration had not unilaterally exited the JPCOA or if the Biden Administration had managed to revive it. NK might have chosen not to sell artillery shells & missiles to Russia if there has been a realistic prospect for a deal w/ the US (which necessarily would have involved acknowledging NK’s nuclear status, thus admittedly difficult to achieve) for sanctions relief. The PRC might have adopted a similarly aloof attitude as it did when Russia invaded Georgia in ’08 & seized Crimea & Donbass in ’14, if the valence of the Sino-US relations has not deteriorated so badly since ’18 or so.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Adam, I rarely have anything to contribute to the conversation here. Just thank you.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Well, concerns about the US’ reliability is prompting the likes of Japan, Australia, the UK & the Philippines (& South Korea to a lesser extent) to hug the US even tighter. However, I am not sure the tight embrace would matter should Trump be elected.
OTOH, Shinzo Abe seemed to have succeeded to some degree during Trumps term, but the ultra right wing Shinzo Abe has also been bad for Japan’s liberal democracy, & Fushida only marginally less bad. The right wing Yoon in SK has also been damaging to liberal democracy there, prompting a backlash in the latest parliamentary elections. The election of Marcos, Jr. in the Philippines was not a sign of a healthy liberal democracy, either. We all know about the Tories in the UK…
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
Truman had a “the buck stops here” plate on his desk.
President Joe Biden gets to choose his NatSec staff, the JCS, and a bunch of others,
so, given how well mixing ruZZian ogliarches, US politicians and US Billionaires together has worked out, (since before 2016), why would you choose some one who’s job that was for 2 decades, and make them Undersecretary of Defense?
The EU and NATO has sent Ukraine 514 non-Soviet tanks so far, PT-91 Twardy’s, Leopard 1’s, Leopard 2’s Challenger 2’s, AMX-10’s
The US, 31 M1A1’s, 37 year old, un-upgraded tanks, when they have 3,700 in storage.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Technically, it’s SEATO 2.0 on steroids.
The US is “in” as a bridge, the gorilla in the room, but nobody trust’s the gorilla any longer. The individual “Joint Security” agreements will carry the weight.
It’s basically TPP II, but with the US “inside” on paper.
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Biden doesn’t control the budget. Executive action will face legislative challenges and become a legal quagmire, given our current SCOTUS.
He’s not Zeus or Green Lantern. He’s doing what he can.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The problem w/ the SEATO 2.0 proposition (aside from the abysmal failure of the 1.0 incarnation) is that there is little enthusiasm for it outside of Japan, the Philippines & [w/ slight bit more caution] Australia, & the Philippines’ enthusiasm can change w/ another presidential election (the Philippines’ attitude towards the PRC tends toward bipolar, alternating across administrations). Everyone else is hedging against both the US & the PRC, & refusing to choose sides. The US’ unconditional support (or so perceived) for Israeli conduct in Gaza has also materially damaged the US’ standing across SE Asia
Furthermore, such arrangement w/ an absent minded US could still succeed in constraining PRC behavior, especially w/ greater regional support, but the non-US members will likely also have to reach much greater accommodation w/ the PRC.
Jay
@SpaceUnit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Foreign_Military_Financing
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
NATO wasn’t built in a day, and you know, Hungary, Slovackia, France,…………..
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Come one; at least do a quick background search. She’s not been doing only that for 20 years.
Celeste A. Wallander
U.S. Russia Foundation “Past presidents of USRF include Celeste Wallander (2017-2022)”
What she said in that hearing excerpt wasn’t objectionable, IMO. An argument could easily be made that attacks on oil/gas infrastructure (not military supply depots) are geneva conventions war crimes, even if not nearly as critical as the electricity supply, the basis of modern civilization. (The USA ‘s own track record is horrible in this area, anyway.)
SpaceUnit
@Jay:
Okay, against my better instincts I actually read that. Did you read the part that says Congress oversees the financing of that program?
I’m out of here. Vote for trump or RFK Jr.
ETA: Fuck.
Jay
@Bill Arnold:
Nothing like staying on mission,
“While initially established with its headquarters in Moscow, the organization attracted negative attention from the Russian government and relocated to Washington, D.C. in 2015.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Russia_Foundation
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: @Jay:
(1) I dissent from the view that the Biden Administration prefers a stalemate to a Ukrainian victory. (2) I subscribe partially to the view that the nature of the support offered Ukraine has not been optimal. (3) I am completely persuaded of the view that had the Administration benefited from a free hand in domestic politics, we would be seeing increased US military support in 2024 that extrapolated from 2023, would be countering the regenerated Russian threat—and which, I am persuaded, will resume by the beginning of May.
(1) The claim that a stalemate is preferable to Ukrainian victory to the administration is ridiculous on its face. In 2023-2023, the US made the most determined effort in its power to put the means of reversing Russian territorial gains in the hands of the UAF, and obviously held inflated expectations of what might be accomplished thereby (as did we all). It turned out to be much harder to put and keep the Russians on the defensive than anyone thought. This was a massive disappointment, and a shock both in Washington and in Kyiv.
(2) It does appear that the Pentagon nagged the UAF to fight the counter-offensive along their own doctrinal lines, which are very different from what experience had taught Ukrainian forces in battle in 2022, and maladapted to the realities of UAF force structure and command structure, as well as to a battlefield in which NATO’s presumption of air dominance is a hilarious fiction. As a consequence, much of the UAF’s accumulated reserve was dissipated in inconclusive battles South of Orkhiv in April and May 2023. Also nobody in authority anywhere was thinking about the consequences of Russian force regeneration, and whether it might be a good idea to prepare the kinds of defensive works to contain new Russian offensives analogous to the Surovikhin lines that the Russians used to contain and culminate the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
(3) In US politics, the “red wave” was averted in November 2023, but the House did change hands by a small, delicate margin. As we all know, this has cramped the ability of the Biden administration to continue its progressively increasing support of Ukrainian military capability. Had this progress continued uninterrupted, by now it would be bringing Ukraine up to NATO standards in air power, armor, artillery, air defense, infantry assault and defense, and a few other capabilities. That progress was interrupted, with frustrating, tragic consequence. But it is very clear, in my view, that the logjam in the House is close to breaking, because too many GOP members in purple districts fear for their seats in consequence of their party’s policy paralysis, and because those members are communicating their distress very forcefully to Johnson, whose religious views say nothing concerning either Ukraine or Trump, and who, whatever his intellectual deficiencies, can count votes.
So. It is a shitshow. But it’s not The End, and matters may well change quite quickly in the next few weeks. And while it is now clear that this war will not end soon, I do not at all believe that Putin is justified in his view that the long-term outlook favors Russia.
Jay
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1054604.pdf
The Legality of Attacking War Sustaining Economic Objects.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Agree, except for # 1, ATACMS
#2, 31 Abrams (late deliveries) ancient M1A1’s, 0 airpower upgrades, geofencing,
and when you have Senior NatSec staff bitching in public that Ukraine should not be targeting targets in ruZZia, with the excuse it might raise gas prices in an election year,………
really?
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I think the Biden Administration would prefer a Ukrainian victory as long as it did not skirt dangerously close (in its view) to direct military confrontation between NATO & Russia, or risk escalation to nuclear war. OTOH, I think the Administration was not expecting Ukrainian victory going in, & a stalemated Russian invasion that becomes a bloody sink for Russia combat power would have been (& may still be) an acceptable outcome from the stand point of US interests.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
came across a Nitter post today. Turns out that the “face” of a lot of the ruZZian Military ads, you tube clips, TicToc’s etc for the “NOT WOKE” ruZZian Army, is a gay, dancer, model not in any branches of the ruZZian Military.
I think a lot of the Biden Administration is cowed by the “Tom Clancy” version of the ruZZian military and State and ruZZian “threats”,
and still hasn’t “grokked” the paper tiger that Ukraine exposed ruZZia as,
or the 87 empty threats ruZZia has made to use nukes since 2009.
I mean, ruZZia losing over half the Black Sea fleet to a country with no Navy,……….. really.
Jay
DP
Jay
@SpaceUnit:,
a). I am Canadian,
b). If I wern’t, and were a ‘merkin, I would vote Biden because he is one of the best President’s you have ever had,
c). but still,……
d). Did you know that Canada has no M777 howitzers or 155mm ammo?
Yeah, we sent it all to Ukraine. All of it. Not much, but it was what we had for modern arty.
Our arty guys now train on 75mm pack howitzers from the 1940’s and 50’s, reclaimed from Highway Avalanche Control,
and 1970’s 105 mm antiques.
We are getting 15 more M777’s in 2024, and they are all going to Ukraine as soon as they arrive.
Anne Laurie
Adam, I religiously read your posts (and sometimes the comments) every day… sometimes not till the next afternoon, because I have to kinda sneak up on my own mood. But, as a number of people have already said, while I greatly appreciate all your hard work, I just don’t have anything useful to add!
NotoriousJRT
@SpaceUnit: FWIW, your comments generally describe my views vis a vis difficulties with funding. But, I think it’s inexplicable that the U.S. is criticizing Ukrainian strikes against Russian assets that support its total war on Ukraine. This deal is existential for Ukraine and bitching about hitting Russia is so counterproductive. That buck stops with Joe Biden, IMO.
More generally, Adam, I still check in each night, but I’m skimming. I just don’t have the stomach to be reminded in depth how we – the U.S.- are failing Ukraine right now. But, I thank you for soldiering on.
I did see Nancy Smash on with Chris Hayes. He asked her about Father Johnson’s pale (by comparison) leadership in the House. She wasn’t having any petty comparison BS. She wanted to talk about the situation in Ukraine and the importance of getting them support. I felt oddly heartened even as I knew she could neither lead that horse’s ass to water or make him drink. She’s serious; he, sadly, is not.
trnc
Sure, but the Biden administration aren’t claiming that it’s enough, right? They’re trying to highlight what they are able to do while urging Pastor Mike to do his fucking job. Amb Brink also just posted a couple of hours ago that they’re trying to get some private investment, which may amount to pennies but also shows they aren’t sitting around doing nothing while the Putin cutouts in congress block aid.
Paul in KY
@hrprogressive: They don’t want Ukraine to win cause they are wholly owned by the nation that invaded Ukraine.
Paul in KY
@wjca: No shit
Paul in KY
@YY_Sima Qian: Same here.
Paul in KY
@Jay: Nobody’s going to attack Canada. Thanks for giving them all, BTW.