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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Excellent Links / Foreign Affairs Open Thread: What Happens After Ebrahim Raisi?

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: What Happens After Ebrahim Raisi?

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Foreign Affairs Open Thread - STOCKPILE 1

(John Deering via GoComics.com)


I particularly wanted to share this report from the Washington Post’s Jason Rezian, who knows Iran as do very few Western reporters — What killed President Ebrahim Raisi? Iranians have theories. [gift link]:

…Even though it appeared that the crash was a weather-related accident, few details were released to the public, naturally fueling wide speculation among observers. Iranian authorities’ track record of tampering with the crash sites of aviation disasters does little to instill confidence that they will be transparent in reporting their findings, which inevitably leads to more questions.

Let’s address the most basic one first: How can a vehicle transporting top officials of a large country — one credited with all manner of sinister powers — simply disappear within its borders and for so long? The likeliest answer is that Iranian authorities knew immediately what had happened but dragged their feet while they considered how to inform the nation and the world.

During those long hours when officials had little to say, conspiracy theories undermining the regime proliferated. All three point to weaknesses the regime would prefer to hide. In walking through them here, I’ll save the most probable explanation for last.

Inevitably, some pointed to Israel as a possible culprit. That country denied any involvement, but it has done that in previous instances when it killed key Iranian officials. Regardless of whether Israel played a role, ordinary Iranians will not dismiss the possibility that this was a message to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: that Israeli forces truly seem capable of doing whatever they like inside Iran. Even if this is not true, it does an authoritarian regime no good for its people to think it might be.

Another pesky theory that will be hard for the regime to shake was the notion that this was an inside job.

Although Iran is a tightly controlled system that usually bends to Khamenei’s whims, that doesn’t mean political competition doesn’t exist. In fact, it’s rampant. Raisi was thought to have been handpicked by the supreme leader to be president. Though astute analysts doubted Raisi had the chops to rise to the top, it was widely assumed that he was in the running to succeed Khamenei…

But the most probable cause of this fatal helicopter crash is the least fanciful and most damning: It was an accident that most likely happened because much in the Islamic republic is in an advanced state of decay.

Iran is one of the most dangerous places in the world in which to drive or fly. The number of road deaths is staggering, averaging about 17,000 each year. The number of fatal plane crashes is also abnormally high. Flight fatalities can be attributed to the use of antiquated aircraft whose maintenance is hampered by the economic sanctions imposed on Iran. And yet Iranians of all stripes, including senior regime officials, make risky transportation decisions all the time. Politicians die or are injured in accidents more frequently than you might think…

Despite the calamity, many Iranians won’t miss Raisi, who was an architect of the horrific extermination of thousands of domestic dissidents in the 1980s. At the same time, they know his death won’t change things in any substantive way. The Iranian regime may be wobbly and sclerotic, but it’s also deeply entrenched. It will take more than the death of its president — whose power is marginal, at best — to unseat it.

Foreign Affairs Open Thread - STOCKPILE

Per Bloomberg , “Iran’s Center of Power Shifts From ‘Clerical Slippers to Combat Boots’”:

… With Raisi gone, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — the most powerful arm of Iran’s military which over the past two decades has significantly increased its influence on the country’s politics and economy — is now well placed to become more powerful than any individual who might eventually replace Khamenei, who’s in his mid-80s.

“I don’t look at the issue of the Supreme Leader’s succession in terms of an individual, but rather an institution and I see that institution being the IRGC,” said Saeed Laylaz, previously an adviser to former president Mohammad Khatami. The gravitational center of power in Iran is likely to shift from “clerical slippers to combat boots,” after Khamenei’s death, Laylaz added.

Western officials and regime insiders said it’s unlikely Raisi’s death will change the Islamic Republic’s foreign and regional policy — a fact underscored by Khamenei himself when he told the public that there would be “no disruptions” to how the country is run.

But the accident has turned attention to what Iran will look like after Khamenei. It comes at a time when the regime faces unprecedented levels of dissent at home, is trying to revive a sanctions-hit economy and is involved in a string of regional conflicts and crises, from Afghanistan to Gaza and Yemen…

The IRGC has been central to that strengthening process. Designated a terrorist organization by the US in 2019 it was set up by Khomeini to protect the Islamic Republic as a political regime. It has increased considerably in size and strength over the past 20 years. And it has been instrumental in fostering a network of proxies and militias across the Middle East designed to protect Iran’s interests, spread its influence and constantly challenge the US presence in the region…

Since 2018, when the US withdrew from the nuclear deal — an agreement between Tehran and world powers — and then later came close to conflict with the Islamic Republic after killing top IRGC General Qassem Soleimani, the Guards have taken a more prominent role in the running of the country…

Replacing Raisi as caretaker president, ahead of elections on June 28, is former IRGC officer Mohammad Mokhber, who has close links to Khamenei’s office. Ali Bagheri Kani, who has stepped in as foreign minister, is a member of the hardline political faction, the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability, known as Paydari, which had spent years grooming Raisi to succeed Khamenei…

While Raisi oversaw modest economic growth after his 2021 election, the country’s currency hit successive record lows during his leadership, losing almost 70% of its value against the dollar in the open, unregulated market. And as much as clerics and generals in Tehran can be pragmatic with geopolitics, they prefer to be unsparing and ruthless in how they deal with their widespread unpopularity in urban centers and among the young…

The past eight years have been some of the most volatile in the history of the Islamic Republic and each fresh chapter of domestic unrest has been met with a stronger response from the security forces. The most recent demonstration of this was the uprising triggered by the September 2022 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who’d been arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s strict Islamic dress codes.

Protests swept the country, gripping communities and explicitly challenging Khamenei and his rule in unprecedented ways, most visibly by women shunning mandatory headscarves or hijab — a defining feature of the Islamic Republic. The security forces crushed dissent, killing hundreds of protesters — most of whom were women and young people — and arresting thousands more, according to human rights groups. At least seven men were hanged for taking part in the demonstrations…

Mobile phone videos showing teams of uniformed officers and their female colleagues, cloaked in black from head-to-toe, beating and dragging young women in public and forcing them into police vehicles, have proliferated on social media platforms like X and Instagram.

“What keeps Khamenei up at night I don’t think is protesters in Iran,” Nasr said, “it’s his legacy. He’s concerned about his legacy and the continuity of the Islamic Republic along the lines that’s best for the system.”

Ray Takeyh (Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (Brookings), for Politico — “What the Death of Iran’s President Really Means”:

Before he managed to best a weak field in a heavily orchestrated 2021 election, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s primary claim to fame — or infamy, as the case may be — was his role in sending 5,000 political prisoners to their deaths. That mass murder in 1988 was part of a larger campaign by Iran’s theocratic state to intimidate its increasingly frustrated citizenry in preparation for the end of the eight-year war with Iraq and the death of the revolution’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Raisi’s many victims might find satisfaction in his death, but the repressive regime he leaves behind will outlive him…

The ascension of Raisi to the regime’s second highest office was not a function of any discernible charisma or political skill, but rather an acknowledgment that he possessed the qualities most valuable for late-stage autocracy — mindless loyalty to the ruling system, a track record of unhesitating brutality and deep integration within the religious, familial and security networks that underpin the state. In this sense, he was a reliable functionary of the clerical state, a symptom not the cause of its domestic repression and regional aggression.

For that reason, his death is not likely to precipitate meaningful changes in Iranian policies. What may have changed is the considerable appetite for risk that Tehran has demonstrated over the past several years. From blindly enforcing religious strictures on their rebellious constituents to nearly going to war with Israel, the regime seems to disregard its own practical interests. Iran’s senior leadership necessarily will find itself more consumed by the task of ensuring a smooth transition to a new president amidst voter apathy and a recent history of internal unrest. However, Khamenei and the security services will be acutely aware of the risk inherent in any perception of vulnerability, both in terms of their external posture as well as internal politics. As a result, we should expect a skittish, reactive Iran that may be more dangerous if it perceives itself on the defensive…

The remaining issue that Khamenei has to settle before his own passing is the nuclear program. Iran’s scientists and technicians have done their job and there are probably no longer any remaining technological barriers to detonation. Khamenei has expanded the nuclear infrastructure in terms of size and sophistication but has been hesitant about crossing the final line and actually detonating the bomb. As he contemplates his last and most consequential decision, he will increasingly be surrounded by men who feel they have little to lose in the age of American decline in the Middle East.

Raisi was in many ways a transitional figure. He represented the last gasp of those who were present at the creation of the revolution. Under the watchful eye of Khamenei, a new generation is about to assume power. And they believe the world is going their way.

Reader Interactions

44Comments

  2. 2.

    SpaceUnit

    How about the world starts to round up people wearing weirdo headgear.  Turbans, etc.  Rednecks with sunglasses on the rims of their fucking ballcaps.  Ought to be a good start.

  4. 4.

    Geminid

    Flying to the Azerbaijan border to inaugurate a dam seems like a trival use of the Iranian President’s time. The dam is adjacent to the zone of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia though, and a couple years ago Iran threatened to intervene on Armenia’s side.

    Now, after 32 years, that destructive conflict seems to have ended finally, and Raisi and Azerbaijan President Aliyev wanted to demonstrate a new spirit of regional cooperation. That’s why the Iranian and Azeri officials ended up posing on a remote river bank for a photo-op. It was a sunny day, but you can see some high cirrus clouds above the mountains, like there was some stormy weather on its way.

  7. 7.

    p.a.

    In some ways, the degenerating infrastructure + oppression reminds me of late-stage USSR, except instead of eventually producing Gorbachev/Yeltsin, the government keeps vomiting up Stalins.  Of course post-USSR Russia did come to produce a Stalin-lite.

  8. 8.

    TBone

    Still in a state of incandescent rage over the Supremacists Court’s race-based naked power grab in advance of the upcoming election.

    From now on, as Mark Joseph Stern noted in Slate, it will be virtually impossible for Black voters to prove that lawmakers targeted their race rather than their politics when redistricting, and partisan gerrymandering has just gotten the Supreme Court’s approval (previously, as Stern noted, the court had said federal courts could not intervene even if partisan gerrymandering violates the Constitution; today they said it does not violate the Constitution). Representative James Clyburn (D-SC) said: “Today’s U.S. Supreme Court decision…is further affirmation that this Court has chosen to disenfranchise Black voters and rob us of our fundamental access to the ballot box. Equitable representation is the hallmark of a healthy democracy and in this case, the Supreme Court is attempting to steer the country back to a dark place in our history.”

    In a concurring opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas argued that the Supreme Court has no power to redraw district maps at all. As Stern noted, Thomas places the blame for what he sees as judicial overreach on the Supreme Court’s 1954 Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka decision declaring segregation in public schools unconstitutional. After that decision, Thomas says, the court invented powers to remedy the problem. If Brown invited overreach, all the landmark voting decisions of the 1960s did, too.

    What twisted, fucked up excuses are they gonna pull outta their ASSES to explain why Rump can commit crime after crime after crime without punishment or any redress from our justice system?  Given the “logic” used yesterday, anything is now fair game to excuse him.

    And that’s just the tip of this iceberg of insanity.

    https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-23-2024

  9. 9.

    Geminid

    @p.a.: One long term advantage Iran has over Russia is its much younger population. In the short run this threatens the current regime because the economy is stagnant and young people want jobs and economic advancement, but the regime keeps bragging about the resources it sinks into foreign adventures.

    The regime’s excuse that western sanctions are to blame has worn thin. Government officials trotted it out after the helicopter crash, but the regime is an old hand at sanctions evasion and can get helicopter parts if they want to. And a few weeks ago, when Iran fired several hundred drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel, regime officials did not mention sanctions at all. They were more like, “We got plenty more where those came from, pal.”

  10. 10.

    TBone

    @TBone: everything my mother worked to combat, everything she stood for, and stood against, everything she worked toward for her entire adult life has been tossed into the shitter.  I’m glad she’s not here to witness it, or to witness my jaw-clenching, burning, impotent rage…

  11. 11.

    Brachiator

    Interesting articles. A lot of contradictory views and wild speculation about the possible cause of the helicopter crash. Raisi was either an evil mastermind or a functionary eager to do the bidding of his masters.

    an acknowledgment that he possessed the qualities most valuable for late-stage autocracy

    Is this anything like late stage capitalism?

    As he contemplates his last and most consequential decision, he will increasingly be surrounded by men who feel they have little to lose in the age of American decline in the Middle East.

    A couple of articles really seem to yearn for a more active American presence in the region and foolishly believe that Iran was somehow previously humbled by the United States. These dopes probably hope that Trump wins in November. 

  12. 12.

    TBone

    There is a disturbingly weird and unnatural-looking dark cloud formation on the horizon I see from where I sit outside and have my coffee.  It looks like someone painted an angry, foreboding, dark streak across an otherwise perfect, gentle blue sunrise sky. It’s like someone took their angry paintbrush and slashed the sky. Apropos.

  13. 13.

    Princess

    @Geminid: Yeah. They can get sophisticated weaponry to Russia to kill Ukrainians (and to Hamas to launch against Israel, and to Yemen) but can’t get the right parts to fix the helicopter that carries the president doesn’t sound very convincing.

  14. 14.

    Nelle

    Way off topic.  Tornado sirens jolted us out of bed half an hour ago.  Fourth time of taking cover this week, with one tornado dropping down three miles northeast (in other words, we were in the track, but it kindly waited until it was past us to drop).  Still having very strong straight line winds. Don’t feel like getting productive but too much thunder to get back to sleep.

  15. 15.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: I saw some more pictures of Raisi’s last meeting, posted on an Azerbaijan news site. There’s a paved road across the dam with a stripe marking the border painted across it. The first pic showed Raisi and President Aliyev standing on either side of the stripe and shaking hands, with a smiling Foreign Minister Abdolahmenian(sp?) is looking on. Aliyev is a big guy with a big mustache.

  17. 17.

    Geminid

    @Princess: The Iranian regime has slso sunk a lot of resources into its nuclear program. They insist it’s not for military purposes, but nobody believes them.

    But they haven’t thrown the IAEA inspectors out, and that’s a good thing. Things were pretty tense a couple years, and IAEA Director Grossi made an “urgent” visit to Tehran to restore his inspectors’ access to some facilities. At the time, reporters noted that Grossi insisted on a meeting with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini. Khameini’s office, not the President’s, calls the shots in this area.

  18. 18.

    Baud

    @Brachiator:

    These dopes probably hope that Trump wins in November

     
    So many dopes out there. I think we think we’re lovable and underestimate how much of a threat we are to vested interests.

  19. 19.

    TBone

    @Nelle: hoping you have proper shelter and preparedness.  You just put a new perspective in my eye today, and I hope things settle right down for you too.

  21. 21.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @p.a.: ​Of course post-USSR Russia did come to produce a Stalin-lite.

    Give Putin time, the war to kill Ukrainians isn’t over yet.

  23. 23.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: President Raisi’s untimely death did not hit me too hard. I was more interested in the Dilmaz(sp?) Protected Area where the helicopter crashed. It’s in an upland deciduous forest, a survivor of the famous Hyrcanian Forest of ancient times. Iran has applied to the UN for it to be named a World Heritage site. The forest is known for its diverse wildlife including wild boar, brown bear, and jackals.

  25. 25.

    Sid

    I’m not sure anyone in the United States (14.2 road deaths per 100K population*) is in a position to criticize traffic safety in much poorer countries.

    Link

  27. 27.

    Geminid

    @Baud: Probably not. The helicopter hit right near the top of a very steep ridge. I saw video taken from above, and the view past the crash site into the valley below made me dizzy.

    It looked like the helicopter would have made it over if it had been flying a hundred feet higher, or 200 feet to the right. The helicopter looked like it hit skids in, not nose in, like the pilot saw the ridge and had a couple seconds to manouvre.

  28. 28.

    TBone

    I’ll say it again:  It’s poetic justice that a guy who prevented women from driving for so long was driven into the side of a mountain.

  30. 30.

    JWR

    @TBone:

    And that’s just the tip of this iceberg of insanity.

    I heard about this on either PBS or Amanpour & Co, and the person being interviewed brought up FDR’s threats to pack the court, followed by a far more likely way for Dems to fight back, and that’s by including a line in every piece of desired legislation stating that SCOTUS may NOT rule on the bill in question. I think it’s been done before. But in any case, one way or another, the Dems have to find a way to put a stop to the crazy coming out of this supposedly Supreme Court.

  31. 31.

    TBone

    @Baud: correct, my statement was only for illustrative purposes.  Women can drive if they wear proper head covering; otherwise their vehicle could be confiscated.

  32. 32.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Turkiye’s Akinci drone was the star pf the show. Their local search and rescue headquarters shares responsiblity for the cross border area, and they noted that there was no transponder signal from the missing helicopter. So Turkiye offered Iran the services of an Akinci drone stationed a couple hundred miles away. Iran accepted and three hours later the Akince detected a heat signature from the crash site.

    By that point, the Turkish news site TRT was showing a live video feed from the drone. At one point they had 3 million viewers.  Then with the job done, the Akinci returned to its base but not before it traced out a big crescent moon and star, Turkiye’s national symbol, over nearby Lake Van. It looked really nice on the tracking sites.

  33. 33.

    TBone

    @JWR: that’s a good start.  I’m in favor of much broader reforms for those un-American, traitorous pieces of shit.  If I put in print what I really think, well, that’s just not prudent at this juncture!

  35. 35.

    Geminid

    @TBone: Turkiye is a Muslim country that took a different path with regards to women’s rights. You’d have appreciated a video from some Turkish city I saw last fall. A well-dressed man had stopped his nice sedan in the left hand lane and was walking back towards the semi-truck behind and yelling at the truckdriver. When he got to the cab the woman driver started shouting and shaking her fist at him. They traded insults for a while, then the man threw up his hands in frustration and stalked back to his car.

    Ed. The video reminded me of a saying:

    “Arabic is made for prose, Persian is made for poetry, and Turkish is made for cursing.”

  37. 37.

    Kay

    That article says Iranian women actually have paid national maternity leave by constitutional amendment, so way ahead of the US there.

  38. 38.

    RevRick

    @Geminid: I’ll say! My wife and I watched the Turkish series The Protector and it’s quite clear from the dress, the consumption of alcohol and the general European vibe that Turkey is not your typical Islamic country.

  39. 39.

    Geminid

    @Kay: On the other hand, if you are an Iranian woman and you show too much of your hair you can be arrested and possibly beaten to death. And if you are a woman helping lesbians flee to Iraq you can be tried for “corruption on earth” and hanged.

    So how is Iran on abortion rights?

  41. 41.

    Kay

    @Geminid:

    They ban abortions with an exception for life/health of the mother, which makes them more liberal on that issue than 20-some US states.

    I absolutely think fundamentalist Muslim countries are horrendous for women but I see no reason to pretend Iran bans women driving. But I think all fundamentalist religious sects are bad for women – Muslim, Christian, Jewish, etc.

    It’s what they all have in common. Some shit on other religious or ethnic minorities, varies by flavor, but they ALL shit on women. I’m opposed to all of them. I think all of them are incompatible with democracy when they reach certain numbers and all of them are horrible for women and girls.

  42. 42.

    Geminid

    @Kay: Turkiye really is a good counter example to Iran and Saudi Arabia. When the Turkish Republic was established in 1923, its charismatic leader Kemal “Ataturk” made modernization his overarching goal. That meant cutting the religious authorities down to size with a thoroughly secular state. At the time, Anatolia had a 7% literacy rate, so Kemal ditched the Arabic script Turks had been using, instituted a Roman-type alphabet and started building the nation’s public school system.

    Kemal waited 10 years before he instiuted women’s suffrage and the first dozen women entered the National Assembly. They entered the armed forces that decade as well, and when Turkiye entered Nato in 1952 their women fighter pilots were the only women flying Nato missions for the next few decades. When the Turkish fleet sailed through Istanbul to celebrate the Republic’s Centenial last October, there were woman admirals on the reviewing stand.

    Generally, Turks take the status of women in their society as a point of pride. When they start critiquing Arab countries, which they do a lot, Turks always bring up the backwardness of the Arabs on the question of women’s rights.

    d

  44. 44.

    Geminid

    @linnen: Iran used to be ahead of Saudi Arabia when it came to women’s rights. Now, the Saudi government is loosening up restrictions and may have pulled even.

    Saudi Arabia has a much smaller population though, well under 10 milion citizens, I believe. Iran is tied with Turkiye and Germany with around 85 million.

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