Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. We did an additional 1/1oth mile during today’s walk and she did great. We’ll hold that for the week then add another 1/1oth. She’s also jumped up onto the bed again. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations to help with her chemo.
Second, I said I’d only cover what is going on in Syria if it started becoming related to what is going on in Ukraine. I was thinking along the lines of actual evidence or confirmation that MG Budanov’s merry band of mirth makers were working with the rebel forces or taking advantage of the rebel advances to further degrade Russian capabilities. None of that has happened. The Russians are complaining on Telegram that both of those are happening. There’s no actual confirmation or evidence from legit sources that it is. Rather, the simple reality of Ukraine’s stout hearted defense against Putin’s genocidal re-invasion has changed the dynamics in a battle space almost 3,000 km/1,800 miles away.
“The Russians are very, very busy in Ukraine, and that’s a big part of it,” said Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a group that advocates for democracy in Syria. “Thank God for the Ukrainians.” www.wsj.com/world/middle…
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 3:39 PM
So, now Russia can’t handle the Aleppo offensive because its air power is tied up in Ukraine? Is this what they call a second front?
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 8:43 AM
There are a lot of things going into the rebel assault over the past several days. For instance, the anti-Assad forces spent month’s planning and shaping the battlespace.
I just want people to know that my friends in Idlib literally told me this offensive was going to happen, it was telegraphed weeks if not months ahead of time.
The Regime lines still collapsed the moment they came into contact with the offensive.
— Oz Katerji (@ozkaterji.bsky.social) November 29, 2024 at 9:51 AM
Israel’s degradation and reduction of Hezbullah is also a huge contributing factor.
However, the ripple effects of Putin’s genocidal re-invasion are continuing to be felt. For instance, the loss of Prigozhin and a significant amount of the top layer of Wagner is now being felt in Syria. And that is all the result of events that began with the genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and events in Ukraine.
And we have a correction regarding President Zelenskyy’s NATO accession remarks:
Ukraine corrected Sky News interview translation. To secure a peace deal, he said a NATO invitation should extend to all recognized territory of Ukraine, but NATO protection only territory under Kyiv’s control. He’d then work diplomatically to regain territory held by Russia bbc.com/russian/live…
— Glasnost Gone (@glasnostgone.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 3:10 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
There Are Decisions That Can Be Implemented in The Coming Weeks and Months for the Sake of Our Shared Security – Address by the President
30 November 2024 – 20:15
Dear Ukrainians!
Currently, a rescue operation is underway in the Dnipro region after a missile strike. Ordinary civilian buildings have been damaged: an apartment building, a shop in the village of Tsarychanka. So far, we know of four people killed by this Russian strike. I express my deepest condolences.
Today, the Russians continued their most heinous terror against the residents of Kherson – against ordinary people. A drone drop on a bus. Four people have been wounded.
And this happens almost every day. Ukraine defends itself against this absolutely inhuman pressure. I am grateful to everyone who helps us go through all this, defend ourselves against terror, and save people’s lives.
This week, we can highlight the contribution of Lithuania: a new batch of military aid. Arms, including ammunition, spare parts for armored vehicles. As well as the Netherlands – I am very grateful for the Patriot launchers. The United States is preparing a strong and important military package worth USD 725 million. This is something that will significantly support our guys at the front. We also see the willingness of the Nordic and Baltic states to increase investments in our defense industry, particularly in the production of our domestic drones. I am grateful for this!
Norway has decided to provide more financial support to Ukraine in the coming year, and this boosts our confidence, over three billion. There is a decision from Luxembourg to provide funds for arms procurement for our Ukrainian Defense Forces. We also appreciate the decision by the United Kingdom to impose sanctions on the Russian shadow tanker fleet. This is what keeps the entire world on the right course towards justice. Towards making Russia feel accountable for this war and its consequences, and towards compelling Russia to make peace. The world has the power to make this happen.
Today, as every day, there was a report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the frontline situation and developments in the Kursk operation areas. I want to thank our brigades who are defending our positions, who are destroying the occupier. And today I would like to especially commend the 38th Separate Marine Brigade, the 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade and the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine for their outstanding performance in combat this week. Thank you, warriors! Thank you for your bravery, especially in the Pokrovsk direction.
Now we are preparing for quite active work in December – work with partners: negotiations, meetings. There are decisions that can be implemented in the coming weeks and months for the sake of our shared security – for the sake of Ukraine and all those who genuinely want this war to end as soon as possible, and, above all, justly.
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost and the reason:
Six hundred teddy bears were placed near the Washington Monument to honor Ukrainian children killed, injured, or abducted by russia. A bell was rung and the names of children who died due to russian aggression were read out💔
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 8:21 AM
After the ceremony, the teddy bears will be going to Ukraine to comfort children in orphanages
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 8:27 AM
🇺🇦❤️
Several Ukrainian children returned from occupation, – Lubinets ombudsman.
Eight children were returned to Ukraine from Crimea, as well as from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
👇👇— Adina R (@adyna.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 3:31 PM
Georgia:
@Zourabichvili_S: “I remain as a president, there is no legitimate parliament that will legitimately elect a president, therefore there can be no inauguration. my mandate continues until there is a legitimately elected parliament that will legitimately elect who should replace me”
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 11:43 AM
Father Shalva Kekelia of the most prominent faces of the Patriarchate of Georgia, never a sympathizer for our cause, gave a sermon deeply condemning this morning’s disturbing violence and rebuking a state that allows that. It’s significant. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 7:14 PM
Georgians countering the Russian regime police! Just watch! #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 6:23 PM
My comment is: you never know what you’ve got in you until you actually have to do it. I mean individually as well as collectively as a society! ✊🏻🇬🇪🇪🇺 More such videos on Jay’s X. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 6:18 PM
People stop a fire engine and make it lose water. They apparently chant “thank you” to the cooperating firefighters. This engine won’t be able to supply the hellish water cannon anymore! ✊🏻 #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Shotiko Tadumadze— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 6:07 PM
🇬🇪Georgian protesters shoot at police with a fireworks cannon.
Georgian citizens are protesting against a pro-Russian party that seized power in parliament by rigging elections.
The authorities gave the order to disperse the protesters by force. But Georgians fight back in response.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 5:18 PM
Tonight was a watershed, and we passed this test successfully whatever happens by dawn hours: after the morning’s horrifying vicious assault aimed at intimidating us, people weren’t intimidated, they came in larger numbers and more organized than ever. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 6:56 PM
Not gonna lie, I was quite worried in the morning whether that would scare people. You actually never know what you’ll do as a society until the process happens for real.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 7:11 PM
⚡️Protests erupt across Georgia in defiance of government’s anti-EU stance.
Protests have now spread from Tbilisi to Batumi, Zugdidi, Kutaisi, Telavi, Gurjaani, and other Georgian cities, sparked by the government’s decision to postpone EU accession talks.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 30, 2024 at 3:11 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Editor’s Note: This is a developing story.
Mass protests against the pro-Russian government have broken out in major cities across Georgia, despite police attempts to disperse demonstrators, the Georgian outlet Sova News reported on Nov. 30.
The protests were sparked by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s decision to postpone Georgia’s accession to the European Union until 2028.
Police reportedly used pepper spray and water cannons to disperse demonstrators in Tbilisi on Nov. 29, but protests have now spread to Batumi, Zugdidi, Kutaisi, Telavi, Gurjaani, and other Georgian cities.
Thousands of protesters have again amassed in Tbilisi’s Freedom Square on Rustaveli Avenue, completely blocking the street.
Protesters have begun erecting barricades near the parliament building, Echo of the Caucasus reported. Demonstrators also launched fireworks at parliament, causing a fire to break out.
Police have reportedly launched smoke bombs against protesters and used water cannons in response.
In response to the ruling Georgian Dream party’s decision to suspend EU accession talks, the U.S. State Department announced on Nov. 30 that it was suspending the U.S.-Georgia Strategic Partnership.
“Georgian Dream’s various anti-democratic actions have violated the core tenets of our U.S.-Georgia Strategic Partnership … As a result, the United States has suspended this mechanism,” the statement read.
Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili responded to the decision, calling it the “tragic result” of the pro-Russian Georgian Dream’s anti-democratic decisions.
“It’s clearer than ever that the course they pursue leads only in one direction — toward Russia,” she said on X.
The Georgian Dream party, now led by Kobakhidze, has faced accusations of democratic backsliding and steering the country closer to the Kremlin. Earlier this year, the controversial “foreign agents” law prompted mass protests and violent crackdowns by police.
The October parliamentary elections kicked off another round of protests, amid accusations that Georgian Dream perpetrated widespread fraud and rigged the vote.
Following the vote, the European Commission suspended Georgia’s EU accession process, highlighting the growing rift between Tbilisi and the West.
While pro-EU Georgians took to the streets in protest, Kobakhidze defended his decision to delay EU accession and said that a “Maidan situation” would not happen in Georgia.
“(U)nlike Ukraine in 2013, Georgia is an independent state with strong institutions and, most importantly, experienced and wise people whose power no one can shake. The Maiden scenario cannot be realized in Georgia,” Kobakhidze said during a government press conference.
His remarks refer to Ukraine’s 2013 EuroMaidan Revolution, a months-long popular uprising provoked by former President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a much-anticipated Association Agreement with the EU.
“For the third year now, specific European politicians and bureaucrats who have failed to achieve the Ukrainization of Georgia have been constantly trying to use the candidate status and the issue of opening negotiations to weaken the country, so-called provoke polarization, and artificially depopulate society,” Kobakhidze said.
Rustaveli Avenue right now: *”If you go home, they’ll crush [physically] your children again.”*
Photo by Dodie Kharkheli.
#GeorgiaProtests
— Tatia Tsuladze (@tsuladze.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Special ops beat and detained 17 y.o. minor in front of his parents. This is his dad telling how it happened. #GeorgiaProtests
— Tatia Tsuladze (@tsuladze.bsky.social) November 29, 2024 at 5:21 PM
BREAKING: The Ambassador of Georgia to the United States, Davit Zalkaliani, has resigned from his position.
— Tatia Tsuladze (@tsuladze.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 1:28 PM
I’m guessing Ambassador Zalkaliani’s resignation is related to this:
⚡️US suspends strategic partnership with Georgia amid mass protests.
“Georgian Dream’s various anti-democratic actions have violated the core tenets of our U.S.-Georgia Strategic Partnership … As a result, the United States has suspended this mechanism.”
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 30, 2024 at 3:27 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
The United States is suspending the U.S.-Georgia Strategic Partnership due to the anti-democratic actions of the ruling Georgian Dream party, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller announced on Nov. 30.
The announcement comes amid mass anti-government protests across Georgia, sparked by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s decision to delay Georgia’s accession to the European Union.
“Georgian Dream’s various anti-democratic actions have violated the core tenets of our U.S.-Georgia Strategic Partnership,” Miller said.
“As a result, the United States has suspended this mechanism.”
Miller criticized Georgian Dream’s decision to suspend EU accession talks and denounced the government’s crackdown on protesters.
“By suspending Georgia’s EU accession process, Georgian Dream has rejected the opportunity for closer ties with Europe and made Georgia more vulnerable to the Kremlin. … The United States condemns the excessive use of force by police against Georgians seeking to exercise their rights to assembly and expression, including their freedom to peacefully protest.”
Tbilisi’s ties with the U.S. and other Western countries have steadily deteriorated since the pro-Russian Georgian Dream adopted a controversial “foreign agents” law in May. Tensions only mounted after Georgian Dream declared victory in the Oct. 26 parliamentary elections despite widespread accusations of a rigged vote.
The Georgian government’s democratic backsliding and shift toward Moscow has led the U.S. to halt cooperation projects and cutt financial assistance, deepening the chasm between former allies.
Norway:
Norwegian government and party leaders have agreed to increase aid for Ukraine to min $3.2 billion in 2025, with supporting Ukraine’s defense industries as a top priority. This funding will save countless lives! Dear people of Norway, thank you for your help!
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) November 29, 2024 at 4:52 AM
The US, the EU, and NATO:
⚡️West provided enough aid for 2.5 brigades out of requested 10, Zelensky says.
“They speak about mobilization, but the real problem [is] with 10 brigades which our partners didn’t equip,” President Zelensky said in an interview with Sky News.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 30, 2024 at 5:05 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Western allies provided enough aid to fully equip only 2.5 out of the 10 Ukrainian brigades that Ukraine had requested support for, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Sky News published on Nov. 29.
“Just equip the brigades,” Zelensky said in response to the question on what NATO or the U.S. could do to help tackle Ukraine’s manpower shortages.
The statement follows media reports suggesting that Washington is urging Ukraine to lower its minimum mobilization age from 25 to 18 in an effort to replenish military ranks. Kyiv said that Ukraine’s mobilization strategy is regularly discussed with allies but dismissed suggestions of tension over the issue.
In the interview with Sky News, Zelensky said that if the West doesn’t provide enough aid, Ukraine will “never have enough resources.”
“How do you want me just to mobilize young guys, [as] they don’t know where to go – in which brigade, with which weapon they will fight?” he added.
“They speak about mobilization, but the real problem [is] with 10 brigades which our partners didn’t equip.”
Zelensky said that he had asked the U.S. and Europe to help equip the Ukrainian brigades over a year ago.
He cited bureaucracy and allies’ other priorities as reasons why the aid hasn’t been fully provided.
Zelensky also said the control over the situation in the east of Ukraine is solely dependant on these brigades.
In the interview on July 4, Zelensky said that 14 Ukrainian brigades were underarmed as the Western aid was arriving too slowly.
Ukraine has been steadily losing ground in the east the past months, as Russia has ramped up assaults in multiple areas.
For want of a nail!
Tsarychanka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:
⚡️UPDATED: Russian attack in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills 4, injures 21.
Russia targeted the village of Tsarychanka with a missile strike the evening of Nov. 30, killing four people and injuring at least 21 others.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 30, 2024 at 1:49 PM
Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:
Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.
Russia attacked the Dniprovskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast the evening of Nov. 30, killing four people and injuring at least 21 others.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia targeted the village of Tsarychanka with a missle strike, killing four civilians.
“And so almost every day Ukraine defends itself against this absolutely inhuman pressure,” Zelensky said on Telegram after the attack.
The injured victims include an 11-year-old boy, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak said. He is being treated in the hospital, along with the rest of the wounded. Eight are in serious condition.
Explosions occurred in the Dniprovskyi district in the evening, igniting three fires in the area, the governor said. A shop, an apartment building, and a home caught fire following the attack.
Authorities have not disclosed details regarding the identities of the other victims.
Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is regularly targeted by Russian attacks. Russia on Nov. 21 targeted both the regional capital of Dnipro and the region’s second-largest city, Kryvyi Rih, with large-scale attacks.
The attack on Dnipro involved an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), referred to by Russia as “Oreshnik,” which marked an escalation in Russia’s aerial attacks.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
⚡️Construction of fortifications in Zaporizhzhia nearly complete, governor says.
Governor Ivan Fedorov said the designs for the fortifications have been “significantly improved” compared to previous versions and that the modernized defenses are particularly adept at repelling drone attacks.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 30, 2024 at 5:14 PM
Kharkiv:
In Kharkiv, they decorated the ruined city administration building for Christmas. Amid the rubble and the silence of war, lights now shine. A surreal defiance – celebrating life where it was meant to be erased. Even in ruins, the heart of the city beats with the light of hope.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 3:33 PM
Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast:
Starting tomorrow, all schools in Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast, will be closed, and public events canceled due to security concerns, according to the city’s mayor.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 1:52 PM
Kherson Oblast:
Today, 7 injured by drones in #Kherson by 11 am.
🔴Yesterday, a brother of a woman I had interviewed was killed by a drone. In this photo, she is consoling a woman whose son was tortured to death by Russians during the occupation. Their suburb is devastated; now infested by drones.
#HumanSafari
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 4:07 AM
#Kherson Russian drones hit a grocery store and killed the owner and an employee, injuring another.
This puppy is now left without an owner and home but Khersonians are looking for an adoptive family.
💔4 killed, 9 injured by drones today
#HumanSafari
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 1:54 PM
#Kherson region On Nov 29, Russia
🔴23 settlements shelled
💔1 killed, 6 injured
🔴 17 houses, a shop, cars damaged🔴1 missile launched
🚨Today, by 10:30 a drone attacked
a bus:
💔3 women, 35, 52, 62; 1 man, injured
Pedestrians
💔3 men, 52-73, injured#HumanSafari
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 3:39 AM
Vovchansk:
Only 55 kilometers away from Kharkiv.
Vovchansk.— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 30, 2024 at 8:58 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Відправляй тій самій булочці 😌💗✨🥐
Here is the machine translation of the caption:
Send to the same bun 😌💗✨🥐
I expect Gin & Tonic will have a correction for the machine translation.
Open thread!
Nukular Biskits
I’m just a rank amateur when it comes to geo-politics, but I do think the Ukrainians are owed very much a debt of gratitude … and more.
And, having said that, this only reinforces my belief that the Biden Administration should have green-lighted more capable and more lethal military assistance (i.e., authorized the use of US-weapons systems to strike well inside the Russian border) 2 years ago.
As always, good work, Adam. Thanks!
Adam L Silverman
I want a fireworks cannon.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: You’re most welcome.
Gin & Tonic
I think the term of art wrt NATO is “accession” and not “ascension.”
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed.
Viva BrisVegas
Has it yet been determined if these Syrian rebels are the good kind or the bad kind?
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks.
Gin & Tonic
WRT to the Patron video, there’s an awful lot of wordplay involved. The text overlaying the video closeup of Patron’s nose is “two sweet buns are looking at each other” – with “sweet bun” sometimes being a sort of synonym for “puppy.” So you’re seeing half of an affectionate gaze between two dogs here, and then the caption directs you back to the “self-same” sweet bun, IOW Patron. Too subtle but convoluted to translate well, certainly beyond the current capabilities of any AI.
Gin & Tonic
The Christmas trees in front of the boarded-up windows of the Kharkiv city administration building gave me chills – how many nations could demonstrate this sort of resilience?
Another Scott
@Viva BrisVegas:
Brief statement at WhiteHouse.gov:
(Emphasis added.)
Wikipedia on HTS.
FWIW.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
@Viva BrisVegas:
The most recent assessment is that it’s all the Rebels, good, bad, but not the Ugly, (ISIL), for this offensive planned months ago, they have all agreed to cooperate and not infight.
Tendar notes that the maps are changing, ( to the rebel’s advantage) faster than he can analyze and comment on them.
nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1862902681355907427#m
Gloria DryGarden
@Gin & Tonic: it’s really amazing.
Jay
nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1862934681542373617#m
KatKapCC
@Gin & Tonic: Very few, I imagine.
Also…how many would we willingly force to be so resilient?
Jay
xcancel.com/OlenaWave/status/1862912166992416922#m
bjacques
@Adam L Silverman: me too.
Thanks as always, Adam.
SC54HI
Thank you, Adam. As always, this is invaluable.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
According to al-Jazeera the Kurds are involved, also, too. I’m sure that’s making Turkey happy./S
Thank you Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
The manpower issue in Ukraine seems to be worsening (gift link below), perhaps partly as a consequence of Syrski’s way of war(?):
Geminid
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Turkiye is also very much involved in this civil war and has supported the rebels in northwest Syria since the war began in 2011. They oppose the Assad regime, and they also consider the Kurdish YPG militia fighting in Syria to be a branch of the PKK which has fought the Turkish state since 1984.
A small U.S. Army mission based in northeastern Syria has partnereed with the YPG as part of the anti-ISIS mission begun under the Obama administration. This has been a real sore point for Turkiye, but fortunately both countries have managed to keep their disputes on a diplomatic level and our troops have not clashed. It helps that the American and Turkish Armies have a 72 year history of cooperation as NATO partners.
The YPG has had an on-again, off-again relationship with the Assad regime but they and Assad appear to be cooperating in the northwest now. The YPG faces a difficult future as it’s expected the Trump administration will withdraw our Army mission next year, and maybe our material support as well. So these are critical days for them.
But hopefully we’ll be talking about these developments more in other threads because while they are important, most of them are tangential to the war in Ukraine.
Jay
@Geminid:
Well, the YPG has “charged” out of Rojova cutting the Assad/ruZZian/Iranian forces from retreating south.
It looks like, (so far) all the Anti-Assad groups have a plan and are working towards it
Geminid
@Jay: There’s a lot happening over there. I expect we’ll be talking about Syria all day on other threads since it’s kind of a slow weekend for news in the US.
Jay
@Geminid:
Yeah, this is how you arrange a “three days to Kyiv” operation.