Archives for 2024

Fellow Floridians and I have frequently complained in this space about the immiserating political dominance of the FL GOP, which has made the state poorer, sicker and dumber since the turn of the century. But tides turn, even in Florida, and here’s some unalloyed good news from the Orlando Sentinel:

In a race seen as a bellwether for Democratic chances in November, Democrat Tom Keen flipped what had been a Republican state House seat in Central Florida in a special election held Tuesday.

Keen, a Navy flight officer who works in the aerospace training and simulation industry, defeated Republican Erika Booth, a teacher and member of the Osceola School Board. Unofficial totals for the District 35 seat had Keen with 51.3% of the vote to Booth’s 48.7%.

Keen, who made abortion rights and property insurance key issues in the race, got between 65% to 70% of nonpartisan, or NPA, voters to make up for Republicans turning out in larger numbers than Democrats, said Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst.

“What actually clinched the win for Democrats was this massive margin with NPAs and perhaps some Republican moderates as well,” Isbell said. “If anything, this should be concerning for the GOP because it indicates a voter anger that maybe they have not understood.”

State House District 35 is a swing district that Biden won in 2020 by 5 points and DeSantis won by double digits in 2022. The seat was open because DeSantis cronies who are running the state’s higher education system into the ground appointed the completely unqualified Republican cop-impersonator who held the seat, Fred Hawkins, as president of a small public college.

I guess they figured DeSantis’s 12-point margin of victory in 2022 in the district meant the seat was safe. Oops. Florida House Dem Leader Fentrice Driskell on how Keen won:

“This is the blueprint for how we win elections: ground game, early investments and hard work,” Driskell, who chairs the FHDCC, said. “The FHDCC was on the ground immediately in this district, signing up Democrats to vote by mail and registering new voters through his primary and into the general election. The FHDCC is ready to repeat this formula and break the Republican supermajority this November.

She’s not wrong, but I think more is going on here than FL Dems stepping up. As analyst Isbell pointed out in the O-Sen quote up top, more Republicans voted than Democrats, and it looks like NPA voters and perhaps Republican moderates joined with Dems to put Keen over the top, despite a barrage of negative ads featuring dumb culture war themes and dirty tricks to try to split the non-GOP coalition.

My theory is that negative partisanship is coming into play, which this time benefited the Dems. As we know, the national political media built up a DeSantis boomlet by suggesting the sour-puss stilt-boot wearer was “Trump but competent” and heir apparent of the MAGA horde. But the more voters in other states saw of DeSantis when he launched his presidential campaign, the less they liked him.

What’s less widely known is that his numbers have been sinking in Florida at the same time, and DeSantis is underwater here too now. Most local analysts attribute that to people being pissed off about DeSantis abandoning the state. The theory is Florida voters are angry that DeSantis has been galivanting around Iowa stuffing his face with pork chops on a stick while things go to shit back home.

That’s part of it, but I also think normies are belatedly becoming aware of the FL GOP’s rampant corruption and hypocrisy, which has been on full and embarrassing display ever since the DeSantis 2024 campaign launch. And as the governor acquires loser stink, maybe the state party he transformed in his radical right-wing image is catching some of those odiferous fumes too. Non-Dems who are non-MAGA might therefore pause to think before they automatically tick the R on their ballot, as they did in District 35.

To sum up, I don’t expect the FL GOP’s grip on this state to loosen appreciably anytime soon. The structural factors that put them in power are still in force. But political realignments happen, and they usually start small. The Dem-NPA coalition that put Keen in office could be a sign of things to come.

Open thread.

PS: I’ve been unwell recently, unable to sleep and lacking my usually keen interest in food. But I nodded off before dinner last night and slept until 4 AM this morning, and now I am so hungry I’m thinking about trying to replicate a Denny’s “Moons Over My Hammy” special, perhaps with tomatoes substituting for ham. Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

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