Three quick housekeeping notes. First, I’m a bit fried, so just going to run through the basics tonight.
Second, let’s try to keep the over the top bloodthirsty remarks out of the comments. Let’s dial things back down below ten.
Third, and again, I do actually read every comment, even if only the next day because I’ve racked out before you’ve posted them. If I haven’t replied in comments it’s because it’s usually twelve to fifteen hours later. You don’t have to repost them the next night. With that said, both last night and the night before, YY_Sima Qian asked:
Thanks Adam! Posted the below to yesterday’s thread after it was dead, but I think you were a bit hyperbolic in your criticism of the Biden FP team:
Very late to this thread, but Biden’s natsec team can’t be worse than Trump’s, even the one in the 1st couple of years of Trump’s 1st term. Heaven knows I have levied plenty of criticism at Biden’s team, but at least they are competent crises managers, even if they do little to alleviate (& often exacerbate) the broader dynamics that precipitate crises. Can’t say the same about Trump’s team, & the 2nd term is set to be much worse
OTOH, I saw a quote attributed to Sullivan floating around X, which asserted that Biden thinks in terms of decades, while everyone criticizing him & his team think in terms of months & years (I am paraphrasing). They can’t be that obtuse & tone deaf…
No, I was not. I am specifically leaving the President-elect’s first term team, especially a lot of the replacement appointees that came along late in the game, out of the discussion. The reason for that is the President-elect and his appointees were, are, and will be so far outside of the normal boundaries from which these appointees had previously been drawn from that they are something different and, as a result, in a different category. For all that President Bush 43 had religious delusions of grandeur in regard to how he understood his foreign, defense, and natsec policy, his appointees were bog standard GOP and conservative appointees. Though they, as well as VP Cheney, quickly figured out W’s delusional understanding of his role in the world and manipulated him for their own ends. So, yes, the President-elect’s senior nat-sec team was overall worse in terms of the original appointees and the replacements, just as the designees for his second term will be even worse than those from the first term. And this includes the retreads. But they’re in a very different category from everyone who came before his first term and the throwbacks that President Biden appointed during his interregnum.
Putin and the Russians have begun triggering air raid alerts even though they have no intention of attacking.
Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (Oreshnik) threat triggering countrywide air raid alert. Fascist Russia will probably be using this threat regularly to keep Ukrainians on edge now that its MiG-31K-launched Kinzhal missile threat has proved not very effective.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Alert over after 34 minutes. No missile launch.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 8:54 AM
These are themselves a type of attack. I’m still trying to think through if they’re strategic terror or a form of Military Deception (MILDEC) or some combo. Most likely a combo. Regardless, the purpose is to terrorize the Ukrainians, stress them out, and demoralize them.
President Zelenskyy and First Lady Zelenska sat for a long interview with Ukrainian TV earlier today. Video with English captions turned on below.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
This Year, We May Add More Countries to Our Reliable Partners, Particularly Syria – Address by the President
2 January 2025 – 14:05
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha and Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitalii Koval have just reported on their talks in Syria and Lebanon with the new Syrian administration, with Lebanese business, and on our overall prospects – both security and trade – in the region. This year, we may add more countries to our reliable partners, particularly Syria. We are preparing to renew our diplomatic relations with Syria and our cooperation within international organizations. I want to thank our intelligence for the security framework of these contacts. The visit will also lead to increased trade with Lebanon: our agricultural exports alone to that country currently total $400 million, and we are preparing to at least double that amount. The year 2025 will also bring a more active engagement with Africa, and each such new partnership means greater opportunities for our diplomacy and greater opportunities for our economy. I have instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs to prepare some of our specific agreements with African countries. Over the past year, 2024, we succeeded in boosting Ukrainian exports by 15% – which is an increase of more than $5 billion compared to the level of 2023, and this amounts to more than $41 billion in Ukrainian exports for the year. And in the conditions of full-scale war, it is quite significant. The task for the year 2025 is to continue this growth. I am grateful to all our Government officials, diplomats, Ukrainian businesses – everyone who ensures our ties with the world. And, of course, I want to thank each of our warriors, all the units that ensure the security of our export routes, especially in the Black Sea. The Defense Forces, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Foreign Intelligence Service – absolutely everyone involved – thank you!
There was also a report today by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the situation on the front and in the areas of the Kursk operation. Every day – including December 31 and January 1 – there are constant Russian assaults in the Donetsk region. Most of the assaults per day occur in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, with the intense fighting also in the Lyman and Vremivka directions. We separately discussed the defense of the Kherson region. In the Kursk region, our units continue defending their positions – facing more than thirty Russian attacks a day. I thank all our units who strike the Russian army and destroy the occupier. Based on the results of their performance in combat these days, I want to commend the 24th and 100th Separate Mechanized Brigades, which repelled one of the most brutal Russian assaults on New Year’s Eve, as well as the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry and the 68th Separate Jaeger Brigades, which are defending Pokrovsk, and the 79th Air Assault Brigade, which is extremely active. Well done, warriors! Thank you all!
Finland:
HS: Finnish authorities prevented four times with direct intervention serious accidents of Russia´s shadow fleet. Russian GPS jamming causes the ships going to St Petersburg area to lose position. In Finnish www.hs.fi/politiikka/a…
— Mikko Laaksonen (@mikkolaaksonen.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 4:01 AM
I think it’s Finland, but with the GPS jamming and spoofing it could be Aruba. Who can really say?
Georgia:
January 2 – #Tbilisi
#GeorgiaProtests continue for the 36th day, with demonstrators blocking Rustaveli Avenue once again, demanding new parliamentary elections and the release of political prisoners.
— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 2, 2025 at 11:37 AM
The deserted Christmas village vol. I’ve lost count. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Day 36. Currently, the main focus is to hold Rustaveli every night. This is to maintain internal pressure as we aim for regime erosion & collapse against the backdrop of increasing external pressure such as non-recognition and sanctions. #GeorgiaProtests #NewElectionsforGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 12:27 PM
January 2 is known in Georgia as “fate day” (bedoba), meaning you spend the year as you spend the day. “Bedoba on Rustaveli” was thus the event for today.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 12:28 PM
The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence, the GUR, has formally acknowledged the downing of the Russian Mi-28 by a Magura V5 naval drone.
Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine confirmed information which appeared previously in the Russian military aviation sources. Two Russian military Mi-8 were destroyed by Magura V5 with R-73 missiles. The third helicopter was damaged but managed to return to its base. t.me/DIUkraine/5145
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 5:23 AM
One of the drones Russia launched at Ukraine on New Year’s night has been decorated as a Christmas tree.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 11:03 AM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Ivanovskoe, Kursk region. Missile strike on the Russian base is reported.
(51.6054468, 34.9424578)— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 7:52 AM
A missile strike in Ivanovskoye. Detailed video report
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Donetsk Oblast:
🔥A strike with ATACMS missiles, guided by the “Shark” UAV, targeted the expensive and critical Russian Nebo-M radar station in the Donetsk region.
The cost of such a station is approximately $100 million.
t.me/c/1315043344…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Vovchansk:
Vovchansk used to be home to 20000 people. Now only ruins remain
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The Serebryansky Forest:
The guys from the 63rd brigade hit the positions of the Russians in the Serebryansky forest, gave them a good beating, and returned unharmed. The Russians didn’t even realize what happened.
t.me/c/1605512487…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Kherson:
My close friend’s family grocery store got hit by Russians for the sixth time (and it was flooded after they blew up the dam, too). She is a terrific person who helps people, a poet, cooks a storm…
Kherson. 💔
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Poltava Oblast:
“Downed! Target destroyed!” – fighters from the 17th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine destroyed three Russian kamikaze drones that attacked the Poltava region and shared footage of the action.
www.facebook.com/17brigadeNGU
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
⚡️Russian strike kills civilian in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
A Russian attack overnight killed a civilian in the town of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Governor Ivan Fedorov reported on his Telegram channel on Jan. 2.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 2, 2025 at 2:12 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is the next episode of his official animated series.
Open thread!
Nukular Biskits
LOL! Looks like you got bigfooted, Adam.
Blogfather’s prerogative, I guess.
Thanks, in advance. Will be reading a little bit later.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1874882709648286022#m
jame
The Patron cartoon was really sweet, wonderful for calming and bedtime. Thanks!
Jay
nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1874927011073806700#m
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: That’s not one of Cole’s posts.
Adam L Silverman
@jame: You’re welcome.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
You are correct. I have no idea what I thought I saw.
Actually, I do … but let’s just keep that a secret between ourselves.
ETA: That’s what happens when you try to juggle too many things at one time while enjoying a Yuengling … or two.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: No worries.
Adam L Silverman
I’m wiped. Going to rack out. Catch everyone on the flip.
Nukular Biskits
Given his day job, I honestly don’t know where and how Adam finds the time to do this.
Kudos.
[Crossposted on Bluesky”]
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: First rule of day job is we don’t discuss day job.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks Adam for explanation, & noted on reposting comments in the future.
However, taking out Trump 45’s team leaves basically just Bush 43, Obama 44 & Biden 46, not many data points.
I do think the self-congratulatory tones of Blinken & Sullivan at the end of Biden’s terms are at once nauseating & bemusing. Now I read this morning that Sullivan advocated the US striking Iran if Iran goes for nuclear breakout, citing the Iran’s weakened air defenses & its collapsing network of allies & proxies, even if in an exercise exploring different scenarios, & I may have to take back my assessment of them being competent crises managers.
Sure, Iran’s position hasn’t been this weak since the Iran-Iraq War, but an unprovoked attacked by the US against Iran is ripe for unintended consequences in the medium & long term. Iran can still wreak havoc on regional oil & gas infrastructure & shipping, if the Islamic is pushed into a corner.
Gin & Tonic
This is going to get into an abstruse and occasionally contentious area of Cyrillic orthography and transliteration, but I prefer “HUR” and not “GUR” for the military intelligence unit, and I suspect this is shared by those who have native-level fluency in both English and Ukrainian. I’ll note that both Kyiv Independent and Kyiv Post use “HUR.”
The backstory on this is far too long to explain here, at least tonight. Funny, a couple of decades ago I got into a very lengthy back-and-forth on Slashdot about this with someone – this actually was, and remains, a geopolitical issue.
Not going to bring it up again, nor make a federal case of it, just expressing my preference.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
Hey! You were supposed to be racked out!
No fair! LOL.
wjca
Which, in turn, will boost the prices smuggled Russian oil can command.
Jay
@wjca:
It’s fixed at $60 bbl, it’s not a percentage of market price.
ruZZia’s “Shadow Fleet” is trying to make up in volume, what they are losing on price. $16.18 per bbl as of today, or 1795.98 ruble loss per barrel.
The difference between the Sanctions price and the Brent price goes into the pockets of the illegal buyers, not ruZZia.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: All the more unfathomable why any Dem policymaker would advocate striking Iran even if the latter goes for breakout. There will not be much international support for war against Iran outside of Israel & the Gulf States, all of whom would clearly prefer to fight Iran to the last American.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: If oil & LNG prices spike because of a hot war across the Persian Gulf & the Red Sea, that will further squeeze the U.S. allies & partners economically, the vast majority of whom are large energy importers, & makes Russia’s cheap oil all the more attractive. I think that will severely erode the current sanctions regime.
The economic pain will worsen political instability in Europe & NE Asia & provide more space for the reactionary forces to take advantage. The price spike will also be a boon for U.S. oil & industries. I don’t see how any of this would benefit anyone opposed to reactionary ideologies.
BTW, the middlemen making a killing arbitraging off cheap Russian energy exports are not exactly friendly to liberal democracy, either.
dimmsdale
well, Adam, since now I know you’ll be reading dead-thread additions at some point, THANK YOU, as always. Deeply appreciate your time and effort.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
The US is a major oil and gas exporter. Other than some a-Holes in Europe, most of Europe is off ruZZian oil and gas.
Yes, an oil and gas price spike will put pressure on some Nations, and will increase the profits of the Grey Zone smugglers, but between the cable cutting, acting as spy ships and the Baltic Navies having to rescue several “Ghost Fleet” ships before they ran aground and caused several major ecological oil spills, I think that the crackdown on the “Ghost Fleet” will get serious in 2025.
wjca
Fixed by whom? If the market price jumps, I could see Russia raising the price, to split the increase with the smugglers.
Jay
@wjca:
It’s fixed at $60bbl by UN, EU, and US sanctions. Anybody, Corporate or Nation that pays ruZZia more than $60bbl also get’s sanctioned, other than Iran and the NORKs, both of whom are up to their asses in sanctions.
Iran does not need ruZZian oil, the NORKs are trading NORK soldiers for oil and gas in a barter system
ruZZia is so desperate for the volume, that they are stripping their domestic markets of oil, gas and oil products. While the price has not gone up, shortages are wide.
bad Jim
Here’s a link from Mike the Mad Biologist: <a href=”https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/12/30/russia-furious-chinas-electronics-arent-battlefield-ready/”>Russia furious: China’s electronics aren’t battlefield ready</a>
Jay
@bad Jim:
Technically, bought through 3rd parties from Chinese Companies.
Now, given ruZZian Military Procurement, it’s unclear if Chinese Defense Companies make shoddy products, or ruZZian “Generals” are buying shoddy products from shady companies and billing the ruZZian Defense Ministry for name brand off the shelf units.
But yeah, jammer antenna’s made from cut up beer cans, electrical joints not soldered, etc.
YY_Sima Qian
@bad Jim:
@Jay:
They are getting Chinese made civilian grade parts/components/equipment, made to civilian specs & largely intended for civilian uses, “dual use” in the sense that they indeed can be repurposed for military applications. & are likely getting these parts/components via direct channels from the largest & most reputable suppliers. This is not surprising.
I imagine Ukraine has faced similar issues w/ Chinese sourced components for their self-developed or DIY projects. However, I imagine Ukraine should have better access to actual mil grade Western components & equipment.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
These are not components for ruZZian EW gear.
These are “Off the Shelf” Chinese assembled “EW” jammers, which “officially” China does not sell to ruZZia. None of this is Chinese Military EW.
These are also not “jammers” publically crowdsourced for the ruZZian units by the ruZZian public or “Z” bloggers.
They are units supplied to the ruZZian military units by the ruZZian MOD.
These are $8k to $800K retail units, where MIL Spec start at $150K and run to the several millions.
Somebody in ruZZia is making a fortune buying cheap junk and reselling it to the ruZZian Military.
wjca
Not just for EW equipment either.
Kleptocracies tend towards that sort of behavior. And, as Russia illustrates, have some difficulties overcoming the habit, even when major wars are involved.
Jay
@wjca:
Yup, somebody, “Shoigu!!!!!!!!cough, cough, cough” made a fortune selling the ruZZian Army AirSoft “helmets” and “body armor” instead of BR6.
Might stop a paintball.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Jeez, yes, somebody is making a killing.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
A few years ago, the ruZZian Army bought 4,000 Lenovo “secure” MilSpec hardened laptops.
Turns out, that what they got were entry level Lenovo laptops, covered with a 0.5mil vacuum formed aluminum clam shell covers, with the batteries, drives and boards removed and replaced with an epoxy/sand mix to make the weight.
The ruZZian Army still issued them.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I don’t think Lenovo sells mil grade devices, so somebody made bank selling junk.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Even back in to So Be It days, if you got issued shit ruZZian kit, you kept your mouth shut, because somebody much higher on the food chain had gotten their “beak” wet.