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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You would normally have to try pretty hard to self-incriminate this badly.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

Bark louder, little dog.

We are learning that “working class” means “white” for way too many people.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

Come on, man.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Also, are you sure you want people to rate your comments?

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

Accountability, motherfuckers.

This fight is for everything.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

It’s possible to be a liberal firebrand without crapping on the party.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 1,045: Chernihiv!

War for Ukraine Day 1,045: Chernihiv!

by Adam L Silverman|  January 3, 202510:43 pm| 22 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: there is no address from President Zelenskyy posted, so I’m just going to dive right in.

Russia unloaded on Chernihiv in the small hours.

Russia struck Chernihiv earlier today, destroying several households, killing at least one person, and injuring several more.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 12:05 PM

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Chernihiv on Jan. 3, killing one person and injuring four others, Chernihiv Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Chaus said.

The attack targeted a residential area on the outskirts of Chernihiv, causing significant damage to multiple apartment buildings, Chaus said.

Ukraine’s Air Force had warned of the incoming ballistic attack earlier in the day. Search and rescue operations are ongoing.

Chernihiv Oblast, situated on Ukraine’s northern border with Russia, was partially occupied during the early stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Although Russian forces withdrew from the region in April 2022, Chernihiv remains under near-daily attack due to its proximity to the border.

Here’s the accounting from last night’s attacks:

🛡️ Ukrainian air defences destroy 60 Russian Shahed UAVs, hits reported in 2 oblasts, civilian killed by wreckage in Kyiv Oblast

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— Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 (@pravda.ua) January 3, 2025 at 3:33 AM

From Ukrainska Pravda:

Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 93 Shahed loitering munitions and decoy drones of other types on the night of 2-3 January. Ukrainian air defence units have destroyed 60 Shaheds, with hits recorded in two oblasts. Wreckage from Russian UAVs damaged houses and cars and claimed the life of a person in Kyiv Oblast.

Source: Ukrainian Air Force Command on Telegram

Quote: “As of 09:00, 60 Shahed loitering munitions are confirmed to have been shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.”

Details: The Air Force noted that a further 26 Russian decoy drones had disappeared from radar due to the active counteraction from Ukraine’s defence forces (causing no adverse effects).

At the same time, the Russian drone attack resulted in several UAVs hitting the premises of businesses and apartment blocks in Donetsk and Chernihiv oblasts.

The Air Force reported that the downed Shaheds had also dealt damage in Kyiv Oblast, damaging houses and cars in several districts and causing a fatality and injuries.

Background: On the night of 2-3 January, a Russian airstrike left one person dead and four, including a 16-year-old teenager, injured in Kyiv Oblast. In the Brovary district, a lorry driver, around 25 years old, was struck by wreckage from a downed target and died instantly, as reported by Ukraine’s State Emergency Service.

And just the first three days of the year:

“Only in the first three days of the new year, Russia used over 300 strike drones and about 20 missiles, including ballistic ones, against Ukrainian cities and villages.” — Zelensky.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 2:14 PM

Germany arrests several German/Russian nationals acting on orders of Russian intelligence to blow up trains and murder US military personnel in Europe.

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— SPRAVDI – Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 4:34 AM

From Stars & Stripes:

GRAFENWOEHR, Germany — Three men have been charged with spying on U.S. military bases for Russia and plotting attacks on American personnel in retaliation for Western support of Ukraine, German prosecutors said.

The men, identified only as dual German-Russian nationals Dieter S., Alexander J. and Alex D., were charged Dec. 9 in the Munich Higher Regional Court with suspicion of working for a foreign intelligence agency, according to a statement Monday from the German federal prosecutor’s office.

Dieter S., who prosecutors say was the plot’s ringleader, was also charged with acting as a sabotage agent, conspiracy to cause an explosion and arson, declaring his willingness to interfere with rail traffic and endangering security by taking pictures of military installations.

The case first made headlines in April after Dieter S. and Alexander J. were arrested in Bayreuth, about 20 miles northwest of Tower Barracks in Grafenwoehr, the prosecutor’s office said at the time. Police raided the men’s homes and workplaces.

The pair surveilled U.S. military facilities, including the Army training area in Grafenwoehr, with the intention of disrupting NATO logistical support to Ukraine in its ongoing war with Russia, German news magazine Der Spiegel reported in April. Ukrainian forces receive combined-arms and weapons training there.

German law enforcement officials typically withhold the full identity of suspects due to the country’s strict privacy laws.

More at the link.

“the use of Cold War-era analogies—or even analogies from the war in Ukraine—might go out the window if the United States decided to deploy troops to defend Taiwan. There is no historical case of two nuclear-armed great powers engaged in direct combat” www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/real…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 4:55 AM

Let’s see if you can spot the category error in the essay:

One major lesson to draw from the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy is that measuring success is more complicated than meets the eye. If the most important metric is providing Ukraine with the means to recapture all of its sovereign territory, Biden’s policy was a partial failure. Although Western aid has enabled Ukraine to put up significant resistance, the results remain indecisive. If the measure of success is whether the United States’ policy avoided starting another world war, however, the Biden administration’s approach fared better, although even here it is hard to know whether that same outcome could have been reached with more a rapid provision of aid.

At least once, if not multiple times a week, I include reporting in these updates about Russian attacks or plans to attack on the US, the EU and/or its member states, NATO and/or its member states, and on other non-EU and non-NATO US allies and partners. These attacks go back well over a decade. They begin somewhere between 2009 and 2011 and really begin to pick up speed in 2014 before going into overdrive in 2022. They include wetwork, cyberwarfare, influence operations and psychological warfare, special operations infiltration and attacks, sabotage, etc. The Biden administration didn’t prevent or avoid a new world war because we’ve been in one for a very, very long time. It is just a a world war where the character and characteristics of war are different from those of World War II just as World War II’s were different from World War I’s.

Finland:

👏 Finnish court upholds detention of shadow fleet tanker that damaged cables – Bloomberg

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— Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 (@pravda.ua) January 3, 2025 at 1:01 PM

From Ukrainska Pravda:

Finland has been granted permission to continue detaining a tanker from the shadow fleet that damaged an energy cable and four communication cables in the Baltic Sea last week, a court ruled.

Source: Bloomberg

Details: The tanker Eagle S was detained by police on 28 December. Investigations of the seabed revealed multiple traces indicating the vessel had dragged its anchor during the incident.

This marks the third instance in just over a year where a ship’s anchor has caused damage to underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

On Friday, 3 January, the Helsinki District Court rejected a petition from the shipping company Caravella LLC, based in the United Arab Emirates, to end the tanker’s detention, according to an electronic response to inquiries.

The vessel, sailing under the Cook Islands flag, has been identified as part of the so-called shadow fleet transporting Russian petroleum products. It remains detained in a port in southern Finland and is under investigation for suspected serious crimes, including causing significant property damage and interfering with communication systems.

The US:

🇺🇸 🙏 White House announces new security aid for Ukraine in coming days

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— Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 (@pravda.ua) January 3, 2025 at 3:34 PM

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

The United States will make additional announcements about security aid for Ukraine in the coming days.

Source: Voice of America; John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Advisor, at briefing on 3 January, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The advisor did not announce any other details.

Kirby also admitted the possibility of holding the next meeting to support Ukraine in the Ramstein meeting before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January.

Background: 

  • On 30 December, the United States announced a security aid package for Ukraine worth almost US$2.5 billion. It includes transferring US$1.25 billion worth of weapons and equipment from the Pentagon’s stockpile to Ukraine and placing orders for new weapons worth US$1.22 billion under the Security Assistance Initiative for Ukraine (USAI).
  • Kirby said that this package would include air defence systems for Ukraine.

Well it’s a good thing that the Ukrainians have invented protective armor for US air defense systems!

⚡️Ukraine’s largest steelmaker launches production of Patriot system armor.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 3, 2025 at 7:50 AM

“In a month and a half, we created a project from scratch and made a shield from Metinvest’s Ukrainian armor steel for the Patriot system crew, which guarantees protection against debris damage to both the defenders and the air defense control center,” said Oleksandr Myronenko, a COO of Metinvest.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 3, 2025 at 7:51 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Engineers of Metinvest, Ukraine’s largest steel producer, developed an armored protection for the control module of the Patriot air defense system, the company announced on Jan. 3.

Ukraine has received at least three Patriot systems from Germany, one from the U.S., and one from Romania. Other countries, like the Netherlands and Spain, delivered individual launchers or missiles.

Throughout the full-scale war, there were several reports of damage to Patriot systems during Russia’s aerial attacks. Ukraine also uses mock-ups to protect the Patriots.

“In a month and a half, we created a project from scratch and made a shield from Metinvest’s Ukrainian armor steel for the Patriot air defense system crew, which guarantees protection against debris damage to both the defenders and the air defense control center,” said Oleksandr Myronenko, a COO of Metinvest Group.

Weighing over 2.6 tons, the armor consists of nearly 200 elements, including armored steel plates up to 8 milimeters thick.

According to the company, the weight of the armor does not affect the system’s functionality or mobility.

The company is also producing steel shields for T-64 and T-72 tanks, U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks, and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and is preparing to integrate shields into various Leopard 2 tank modifications.

The armor for the Ukrainian Patriot air defence system. Designed to protect the crew and the control center from shrapnel damage.

▪️Material: Ukrainian armor steel grade 30ХН2МА.
▪️Design: almost 200 elements of armor plates up to 8 mm.

More details: metinvestholding.com/ua/media/new…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 7:35 AM

Russia:

Ah yes, we will definitely have problems finding these giant, non moveable oil refineries now! 😅
www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202…

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 11:42 AM

Obligatory.

A black and white picture of the Three Stooges. They are wearing hats, seated at a table, and all 3 are face palming themselves so that you cannot see their faces. The caption says: Triple Face Palm Because Even the Three Stooges Can See That You Fail.

Georgia:

Rustaveli Avenue is blocked again.

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 37

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 11:33 AM

Day 37. #NewElectionsforGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 1:29 PM

Repressions in the public sector continue, seemingly targeting middle management the most. The latest dictatorial laws make middle management recruitment fully arbitrary, and their dismissal automatic upon the ministerial dismissal, making the middle management loyal at every step. 1/2

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 8:15 AM

Their type of contract isn’t even mandate them being Georgian citizens or proficient in the Georgian language. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests #NewElectionsforGeorgia 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 8:15 AM

Back to Ukraine.

The reason:

The return of loved ones in Russian captivity, an end to Russian missile atracks, the ability to see family currently trapped in Russian occupied areas..

These are the heartfelt New Year’s wishes from the people of Ukraine.

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— SPRAVDI – Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social) December 31, 2024 at 9:45 AM

⚡️ Ukraine investigating French-trained brigade after reports of desertions, mismanagement.

Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation has launched a probe into suspected desertion and abuse of authority in the French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Mechanized Brigade, the bureau confirmed for Suspilne.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 3, 2025 at 4:49 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation has launched a probe into suspected desertion and abuse of authority in the French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Mechanized Brigade, the bureau confirmed for Suspilne on Jan. 2.

The statement comes following a media investigation that claimed that soldiers of the unit, now deployed near Pokrovsk, have suffered losses and went AWOL (absent without leave) in large numbers due to poor command and organization on Ukraine‘s side.

The brigade is a flagship project under which Kyiv’s partners will help train new Ukrainian military formations and provide heavy equipment. The training of the 155th Brigade, named after an 11th-century Kyiv Rus princess and spouse to French King Henry I, was announced by French President Emmanuel Macron in June.

The unit has about 5,800 troops, fewer than 2,000 of whom have undergone training in France. It is armed with French AMX10 armored vehicles, Caesar howitzers, and German Leopard 2A4 tanks, among other weapons.

France fulfilled its obligations regarding training and arms, said Yurii Butusov, the chief editor of the Censor.net outlet, in the media investigation, putting the blame for the unit’s problems on top Ukrainian military and political leadership.

According to the journalist, the unit’s founding was an “organizational chaos” since the very beginning. Even before the training in France began, 2,500 service members were reportedly sent to other units, thus removing many of the most qualified personnel from the brigade.

Of the 1,924 soldiers eventually sent to France, only 51 had more than a year of military service, while 1,414 had served for less than two months, Butusov wrote.

The unit was also plagued by large numbers of soldiers going AWOL — about 50 deserted in France, in addition to hundreds who left their posts even before the unit was deployed at the front, according to the journalist.

Between March and November, over 1,700 soldiers had gone AWOL, Butusov claimed without providing evidence. Though the unit was replenished with new recruits, these often did not undergo “proper selection process,” the journalist added.

The military laid the blame for desertions in France on the brigade’s commander, Dmytro Riumshin, who was dismissed in early December alongside several other top officers. The new commanders were unaware of the problems plaguing the unit, adding to the confusion, Butusov wrote.

The 155th Brigade did not reportedly receive drones or electronic warfare equipment from the Ukrainian command. This, in addition to poor organization and insufficient training, is said to have contributed to the losses the unit suffered once deployed in combat in November.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

The French Defense Ministry declined to comment on the investigation when approached by the media.

“The investigation is ongoing. It is too early to talk about any preliminary results,” the State Bureau of Investigation told Suspilne.

The news comes amid growing calls for reform in the Ukrainian military leadership as Kyiv finds itself increasingly on the back foot in the war with Russia.

The Kyiv Independent is also reporting on the related issues that have promoted an investigation of Ukraine’s Ground Forces Command.

Ukraine is to carry out a comprehensive review of the Ground Forces command, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on Jan. 2, to be conducted by the Defense Ministry’s Main Inspectorate.

“Victory requires a deep analysis of experience, and an honest understanding of mistakes,” Umerov said.

The review aims to evaluate management structures, processes, and compliance with legislation to support reforms and enhance battlefield effectiveness.

The announcement comes after newly appointed Ground Forces Commander General Mykhailo Drapatyi unveiled plans on Dec. 12 for fundamental reforms to strengthen the branch.

Umerov said that the analysis would provide Drapatyi with a full picture of the state of affairs in the Ground Forces.

“Events in the Ground Forces directly affect the situation on the front,” Umerov said, underscoring the strategic importance of the reforms.

Based on the findings, the Defense Ministry plans to introduce reforms in personnel policies, optimize management processes, and improve combat capabilities with new training approaches.

Drapatyi’s proposed changes include revamping the recruitment system, which will have zero tolerance for corruption, enhanced front-line training, and integration of advanced technology into operations.

The reforms come amid reported personnel shortages, with slow mobilization efforts leaving some front-line units undermanned.

Drapatyi has highlighted the need to reform training curricula and prioritize social support for service members to prepare for modern warfare effectively.

Tatarigami has a new assessment on this issue published by Euromaidan Press:

To fully understand the current state of the war, it’s not enough to focus on arrows and units on a map. The real story lies in the deeper, systemic challenges. In an analytical piece for @euromaidanpress.bsky.social, I offer more comprehensive assessment:

euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/03/w…

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 3:06 PM

Here are some excerpts:

“A small Soviet army cannot defeat a big Soviet army.” Once a cautionary tale, this phrase now rings prophetic. Of course, calling Ukraine’s army a “small Soviet army” oversimplifies the issue – neither Russia’s nor Ukrainian military is truly Soviet in the broad sense, but both have inherited the Soviet military’s systemic flaws.

For Ukraine, decades of neglect, underfunding, lack of military prestige, and compounding socio-economic problems have exacerbated these problems. Only a large-scale demanding society-wide mobilization has laid these issues bare.

As the war dragged on, minor issues in 2022 became glaring problems by 2025. Ukraine’s professional military core eroded, replaced by mobilized teachers, drivers, farmers, and IT workers. The military’s rapid expansion brought problems initially dismissed as “growing pains.” Three years later, these issues expose systemic failures to adapt, not mere growing pains.

A recent damning report on the 155th Anne of Kyiv Brigade exposes deep underlying issues in Ukraine’s military. Despite receiving training in France, the brigade allegedly suffered from high AWOL rates and inadequate initial preparation. It was fragmented and attached to other frontline units — symptomatic of broader systemic problems — ultimately leading to severe underperformance.

These demand attention. Blaming everything on a lack of Western weapons is simplistic and misleading — the brigade was trained in France and wielded Western arms.

Ukraine’s major manpower issues are often misread as mere unwillingness to fight, assuming frontline reluctance stems from a lack of will. Such oversimplification ignores critical structural problems.

Honest discussion about these issues is essential, without downplaying or ignoring their existence. History shows existential, conventional, and industrial-scale wars like this require drafts and mobilization. World War II proved large wars can’t be won by motivated volunteers alone: success depends on the state efficiently generating and deploying mobilized resources.

When undermanned brigades lose positions, it’s not always due to insufficient recruitment. Poor organizational decisions, such as funneling new draftees into new units rather than reinforcing depleted, veteran brigades, are often to blame. The window of opportunity to address these identified issues is closing fast – inaction is not an option.

There is much more at the link,

At first glance, I honestly thought this was an incelcamino:

The Unequal Battle of a Russian Tank Against a Pothole

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 3:16 PM

Touch not the cat bot a glove:

Cat intercepts civilian FPV in mid-air.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 7:29 AM

Kherson:

In Kherson, the occupiers struck the Lithuanian consulate.

“Such cruelty and destruction must stop. We must provide Ukraine with more air defense systems and other capabilities it needs to win.” – said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 1:23 PM

Would you look at that, another attack on a NATO member state.

Kharkiv:

Air raid alert and ballistic missiles threat in Kharkiv ⚠️
I’m feeling slightly russophobic right now

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 9:24 AM

Kyiv:

In Kyiv, efforts to eliminate the aftermath of the January 1 attack continue.

The State Emergency Service (SES) reports that 50 rescuers, heavy emergency response equipment, municipal services, and volunteers are working on-site.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 5:33 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here’s some adjacent material from Georgia:

I just petted a fella at the #GeorgiaProtests!

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 1:46 PM

Open thread!

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Reader Interactions

22Comments

  1. 1.

    hrprogressive

    January 3, 2025 at 10:53 pm

    In your view, or the view of people you trust –

    Is there any way “the west” could actually stop this “don’t call it a world war” without it turning into “what the general public would call WWIII”?

    Is it solely centered around “defeat Russia in Ukraine”?

    I am skeptical that, even if the Ukrainians magically were able to liberate every square inch of territory that is rightfully theirs tomorrow, Russia wouldn’t exactly just decide to accept that and stop whatever insane designs Putin has on Soviet Union II, Comrade Harder.

    Not sure if that’s a question that has any answer now or not.

    Thanks for any insight.

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    January 3, 2025 at 10:56 pm

    @hrprogressive: If we had elected and appointed officials that were willing to speak to the citizenry as if the latter were actually adults, then yes. A case could be made both by the President, his senior natsec appointees, surrogates in the House and Senate, and by commenters and analysts. Unfortunately, the last president that was willing to speak to Americans as adults died last Sunday.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    January 3, 2025 at 11:10 pm

    @hrprogressive: It’s not Putin’s designs on USSR Mk II, it’s that, fundamentally, russia does not believe “Ukrainian” is an independent nationality. To them Ukrainian is a defective dialect of russian, and Ukraine is a breakaway province that has no right to exist. They are the loser big brother who never left East Armpit, whose big moment of glory was fifty years ago when he played football in high school but since then has only made it as far as being assistant manager at the feed store, yet has bullied his smarter little brother his whole life.

    In the American version of that story, smarter little brother goes away to college and never comes back. Ukraine can’t leave.

    And I say “russia” not “Putin” because this is not one man, it is deeply entrenched in the russian psyche, and will certainly survive one man’s death, whenever that comes.

  4. 4.

    AlaskaReader

    January 3, 2025 at 11:10 pm

    Thanks Adam

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    January 3, 2025 at 11:13 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    the last president that was willing to speak to Americans as adults

    was pilloried for it.

  6. 6.

    hrprogressive

    January 3, 2025 at 11:17 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
     

    Yeah, that tracks. Thanks.

  7. 7.

    hrprogressive

    January 3, 2025 at 11:18 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I appreciate your insight, thanks.

    I framed it the way I did because I do think if Putin in particular wins in Ukraine, he’s gonna go after the rest of Eastern Europe too, and I mean, at this point in human history, I am not confident NATO would actually be deterrent enough / actually stop him in a hot war.

    Not a good time at all.

  8. 8.

    KatKapCC

    January 3, 2025 at 11:19 pm

    dual German-Russian nationals

    Well, that’s a…..troubling combo. Considering some of what’s going on in Germany right now, and of course what’s always been going on in Russia.

  9. 9.

    KatKapCC

    January 3, 2025 at 11:22 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m curious — can speakers of one language understand the other, at least to some degree? To me, and I’d imagine most people who do not speak either, there is some similarity in sound, but that is likely only because I don’t speak either. If I had to guess, I’d assume it’s more like that a Ukrainian would understand Russian than the other way around, because I know there are (or at least used to be) many Ukrainians who speak Russian. But I’d guess there are far fewer people in Russia who speak Ukrainian.

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

    January 3, 2025 at 11:23 pm

    @hrprogressive: A couple of years ago I was very skeptical that NATO would step up if russian tanks were to roll into Estonia, for example. But with the addition of Sweden and Finland I am a bit more hopeful.

  11. 11.

    Gin & Tonic

    January 3, 2025 at 11:31 pm

    @KatKapCC: A majority of Ukrainians understand russian, although now many will refuse to use it for political reasons. Russians will understand Ukrainian but pretend not to.

    Before 2022, it was common in Ukraine for conversations to take place with the interlocutors speaking different languages. There was a popular TV talk show where the host would ask questions in russian and guests would reply in Ukrainian. This does not happen in russia.

    Linguistically, I believe they are somewhat closer than Spanish and Portuguese.

  12. 12.

    Jay

    January 3, 2025 at 11:33 pm

    Thank you, Adam.

  13. 13.

    hrprogressive

    January 3, 2025 at 11:37 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: ​
     

    Yeah, this is fair. From what I’ve read of how the Finns are (were, in prior wars) that might be a real FAFO moment for the Russians, so.

  14. 14.

    Adam L Silverman

    January 3, 2025 at 11:37 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m very aware. I worked for him. I interned at the Carter Presidential Center in the Middle East Section back when I was a junior and senior at Emory.

  15. 15.

    Adam L Silverman

    January 3, 2025 at 11:37 pm

    @AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.

  16. 16.

    Adam L Silverman

    January 3, 2025 at 11:38 pm

    @hrprogressive: You’re welcome.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    January 3, 2025 at 11:39 pm

    @Jay: You’re welcome too.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    January 4, 2025 at 12:05 am

    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical
    3h
    Ukraine will reportedly receive its first package of French Mirage 2000-5F multirole fighters this month, per Avions Legendaires.

    THe Ukrainian Air Force will likely operate 10 of the type, upgraded to fire French/British SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

    nitter.poast.org/Osinttechnical/status/1875352323645698320#m

  19. 19.

    KatKapCC

    January 4, 2025 at 12:33 am

    @Gin & Tonic: I recall — or at least I think this is accurate — seeing some clips of Zelensky back when he was performing with his comedy troupe and I believe they mostly performed in Russian? Or at least some of the time. And that he spoke both languages as did many others. It feels like another heartbreaking aspect of all this. If Russia weren’t governed by madmen living in their weird fantasy worlds, it seems like there could be a shared cultural space between the two nations. But because Putin (and I presume everyone else in charge in that country) instead refuses to even acknowledge Ukraine as its own nation and is unleashing holy hell on them, that’s completely impossible. Understandably so, of course!! I do not blame Ukrainians one iota for whatever degree of loathing they feel toward Russia.

  20. 20.

    Gloria DryGarden

    January 4, 2025 at 1:56 am

    @Gin & Tonic: spanish and Italian are close like that. I spoke Spanish in Italy, and folks answered in Italian. Mostly it worked. Wonder if Ukrainian and Russian are similar like that

    Portuguese has such a different pronunciation than spanish, although when written, they look quite similar.

  21. 21.

    wjca

    January 4, 2025 at 2:42 am

    @KatKapCC: I recall — or at least I think this is accurate — seeing some clips of Zelensky back when he was performing with his comedy troupe and I believe they mostly performed in Russian?

    Zelensky is from the part of Ukraine where Russian was the primary language spoken.  It’s basically his native tongue.  These days, of course, he speaks Ukrainian instead.

  22. 22.

    Gin & Tonic

    January 4, 2025 at 9:22 am

    @wjca: Correct, Z is a native russian-speaker from a russian-speaking family and region. His hit TV show was in russian.

    Contrary to what some people would like you to believe, until recently this was not an issue, at all. Paul Fucking Manafort, of all people, was one of those who attempted to weaponize the language issue back on the Yanukovych days, but nobody really cared (except for the tankies.)

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