Quick housekeeping note: I had a very long day, nothing bad, just a lot to do, so I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.
The Russians let Sumy have it today:
People may be trapped under the rubble after russian forces dropped a guided bomb on a residential apartment building in the Sumy region. One entrance of the building has been destroyed. Two children and one adult have been reported injured.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 9:24 AM
UPD. Two two-year-old children are among the five injured. Russian troops deployed two aerial bombs against civilians.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 10:06 AM
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
Editor’s note: The story is being updated.
Russia struck a multi-story residential building in the Svesa village in Sumy Oblast on Jan. 4, injuring at least 10 people, including two 2-year-old children, the regional police reported.
Russian forces carried out the strike using two glide bombs that were dropped directly on the building and destroyed one of its blocks. Ukraine’s Emergency Service evacuated 14 people from the site of the attack.
Svesa, with a pre-war population of about 6,100 residents, is located close to the Russian border.
At least 15 apartments are destroyed and 700 windows have been damaged in the blast, according to Sumy Oblast Military Administration. Search and rescue operations continue as of 7 p.m. local time.
Sumy Oblast borders Russia’s Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts. Residents of the vulnerable border communities experience multiple attacks per day.
Here’s the tally of Russia’s 2024 missile attacks:
2024 in stats: Russia launched nearly 2,000 missiles at Ukraine. 56% were intercepted, but so many more could’ve been had Ukraine better air defense.
— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The cost:
Our long-time colleague, journalist Anastasia Fedchenko, has just lost her beloved husband in this war.
Commissioned officer of the Ukrainian Marines, Andriy Kuzmenko, was killed in action defending the country from Russia.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Their child, who is soon to be born, will never see his or her father.
Eternal damnation falls upon those who unleashed the war against Ukraine out of their delusional greed for power and imperial narcissism and unchained all this unspeakable tragedy of millions of human lives.
— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Lives Need Protection Here and Now in Ukraine, and Air Defense Systems Must Be Operational for This Purpose – Address by the President
4 January 2025 – 20:14
Dear Ukrainians!
Rescue operations are underway in Svesa, a town in the Sumy region, following Russian bomb strikes. A residential building was hit. An entire section was destroyed – apartments from the first to the fifth floors. Neighboring buildings were also damaged. Yet another Russian attack on the lives of ordinary Ukrainian families. Seven people were injured, including a child, a two-year-old girl. She’s currently in the hospital. All the victims are receiving the necessary assistance.
Today, there were also strikes with guided aerial bombs on other villages in our Sumy region – Myropillia and Vilna Sloboda – as well as on the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, the rescue operation in Chernihiv has been completed following a missile strike there. More than forty buildings were destroyed or damaged. Sadly, there was one fatality in Chernihiv. My condolences.
The task remains unchanged – strengthening our air defense. We’re already preparing for the upcoming meeting in Ramstein, scheduled for this week. Dozens of partner countries will participate, including those capable of boosting our defense not only against missiles but also against guided bombs and Russian aircraft. We’ll be discussing this with them and working to persuade them. Lives need protection here and now in Ukraine, and air defense systems must be operational for this purpose. I want to thank all our partners who understand this and help us develop an air shield.
Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi gave me a detailed briefing on our actions at the front. Fierce battles continue along the entire front line, with the hottest spot being near Pokrovsk. The occupier continues to waste an insane number of its people in assaults. And I thank each and every one of our units, all our brigades defending Ukrainian positions and eliminating the occupier.
The Commander-in-Chief also reported on the situation in the Kursk region. Specifically, in battles today and yesterday near just one village – Makhnovka in the Kursk region – the Russian army lost up to a battalion of infantry, including North Korean soldiers and Russian paratroopers. And that’s tangible.
I especially want to commend the professionalism and effectiveness of our Special Operations Forces and the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade.
We must all remember – hostilities continue every single day. Russia carries out terrorist strikes every single day. Every day we have to support our army, all of our Defense and Security Forces, be active in our relations with partners – maintain relationships, build new connections, as well as ramp up our own defense production and secure the necessary defense assistance.
We need new results every week. Without a doubt, this year will involve a lot of diplomacy – and no one wants peace more than Ukraine. Real diplomacy – the kind we need – can only be built on our strong positions. Without a doubt, the strength of our army, our entire nation, and our state. Thank you to everyone who is strengthening Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Germany:
Roderich Kiesewetter, defense spokesperson for Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said saidthat Chancellor Olaf Scholz could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin before Germany’s parliamentary elections on Feb. 23.
kyivindependent.com/german-oppos…
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 4, 2025 at 5:10 PM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Roderich Kiesewetter, defense spokesperson for Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said said that Chancellor Olaf Scholz could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin before Germany’s parliamentary elections on Feb. 23.
“There are increasing indications that Chancellor Scholz will travel to Moscow and meet Putin before February 23,” Kiesewetter said on X. “For Ukraine, implementing the intended plans would mean, among other things, a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10 to 20 years. How the Ukrainian population or our neighbors react to all of this will be revealing.”
Kiesewetter criticized the potential meeting, warning that “Ukraine must not be the object or the victim. Russia is up to its neck in economic and social terms, but Ukraine, which is in much worse shape, should be accommodated—not Russia!” He also cautioned that any negotiations at this time “are at the expense of Ukraine and de facto mean submission.”
In his election campaign, Scholz has positioned himself as a “chancellor of peace,” advocating for both support for Ukraine and negotiations with Russia to end the war. However, Kiesewetter took aim at what he referred to as the “so-called ‘Moscow connection'” and called for greater clarity and resolve within Germany’s leadership.
The CDU is currently leading in pre-election polls, with party leader Friedrich Merz widely seen as the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor.
It is standard procedure to go for your end of assignment review and evaluation before you out process and move on to your next assignment.
Georgia:
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 38— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 1:32 PM
On January 4, protesters in #Batumi chanted “Shame!” at Nutsa Buzaladze during a City Hall-funded concert. Buzaladze, who performed at a Moscow event in 2023, has received substantial public funds for her shows, including 18K GEL for a concert in Akhaltsikhe.
#GeorgiaProtests— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 4, 2025 at 3:20 PM
“rotests are underway in Batumi too. Like in Tbilisi, people are protesting continuously in Batumi.
#GeorgiaProtests
Day 38📷 Ipn.ge
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Day 38. #NewElectionsforGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Irakli Rukhadze the main villain behind the propaganda media TV Imedi is a US citizen. There’s also British money behind Imedi through Hunnewell Partners. Rukhadze seems nervous over the possibility of various sanctions. I suppose he could be useful. We could try.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 8:46 AM
I’m really curious who is funding him in the US.
JUST IN: Targeted beatings of female protesters began.
In the last two days, a couple of active women protesters were physically assaulted by regime thugs as they minded their daily business. Teacher and violinist Gvantsa Chkheidze, for example. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 8:10 AM
⭕ Today, January 4, violinist Gvantsa Chkhaidze, an active participant in the ongoing protests, wrote on Facebook that an unknown individual slammed her against a concrete wall.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 7:25 AM
⚠️ Yesterday, January 3, citizen Ia Gabunia reported that unknown individuals attacked her near her home and physically assaulted her. She linked the incident to the ongoing protests.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 7:25 AM
The Ministry of Internal Affairs announces that it is expelling 25 foreign nationals from Georgia who participated in protest rallies. According to the ministry, 10 of them have already left the country.
#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 3:35 AM
I hope the actual participation in the announced 3-hour January 15 will be large. These are all uncharted waters for Georgia. Never have we ever had to face such a regime in independent Georgia.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 8:18 AM
January 15 strike*
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Back to Ukraine.
Happy Birthday to the Ukrainian General with the irresistibly infectious smile!
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 8:31 AM
He’s clearly very excited.
🎉😅 It turns out that Budanov celebrated his birthday and then immediately began to attack Russia en masse with drones, including military airfields.
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 5:36 PM
More on that at the bottom of the update.
Here is a long assessment from the Carnegie Endowment’s Michael Kofman:
A long thread on the war and the current situation. Although the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize in 2024, it was the most difficult period since spring 2022. There were positive developments, and bright spots, but the current trajectory is negative. 1/
First, a brief retrospective. Last winter things looked bleak. Ukraine was dealing with a deficit of manpower, low supplies of ammunition, and was only starting to establish a network of fortifications. Russia held the initiative, and the materiel advantage going into 2024. 2/
Even though Avdiivka fell, by summer it became clear that a collapse of UA frontlines was unlikely. Russia’s Kharkiv offensive was unsuccessful, and they couldn’t capitalize on the strain imposed. Early results from UA mobilization in June-July seemed positive. 3/
It looked as though 2024 would be a difficult year, but the front could stabilize come winter, assuming sustained Western support, and Ukraine could address its manpower issues. Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation was improving. 4/
Unfortunately, while the critical shortages in ammunition were rectified, the more important positive trends on mobilization, and reconstitution were not sustained. Ukraine’s manning levels continued to decline, especially among infantry units holding the front lines. 5/
Mobilization rates dropped off considerably after the summer, and although AFU has been inflicting high casualties on Russian forces, it has also been taking significant casualties and dealing with increased numbers of troops AWOL. 6/
Despite the regular calls for more Western equipment, some units had to cannibalize their crews using said Western equipment to use as infantry, and in general, more equipment is unlikely to address the deficit of men at the front, or unwillingness to serve as infantry. 7/
The front is not imploding, but Russian forces have increased their rate of gain over July-December. The most problematic area is south of Pokrovsk. Following the fall of Avdiivka, then Vuhledar, RF forces have slowly taken important anchoring positions in Donetsk. 8/
Russian forces have not been able to convert their material advantage into operationally significant breakthroughs. This is partly due to force quality issues. They assault in a way that presses the front line, but is not conducive to achieving major breakthroughs. 9/
Attacks often employ small groups of dismounted infantry, along with light vehicle, and larger mechanized assaults. This is partly reduce equipment losses, but also due to a general inability to overcome prepared defenses, covered by pervasive reconnaissance, and strike UAS. 10/
These tactics yield incremental gains. Larger assaults have proven costly to Russian forces, which cannot afford sustained equipment losses of the kind seen earlier in Avdiivka, though company sized mechanized assaults were seen throughout the fall. 11/
Russia retains an advantage in airpower conducting standoff strikes. But Ukraine’s chief challenges include mobilization and training issues, force management, and how the force has been employed. It is not just insufficient men, or how they’re employed, but both. 12/
What’s different about the current dynamic? Russia lacks a decisive fires advantage, and there is parity in tactical strike drones. In some areas Ukraine is advantaged in UAS. Yet Russian progress has been increasing over the past six months. 13/
There is a visible slowdown in December, but weather is a significant factor. Russian forces advance south of Pokrovsk, flanking the city. AFU has lost more than 50% of the Kursk salient. Despite high RF/DPRK casualties there, Russian forces continue to press the pocket. 14/
The Kursk offensive forced a shift of some higher quality Russian forces, and RF airpower, to counterattack AFU units there, but it has not led to a change in the overall dynamic in this war and RF advances in Donetsk have only accelerated since August. 15/
Ukraine’s decision to make new brigades, instead of replacing losses at the front line among the best and most experienced units, had proven to be one of the more puzzling force management choices given the battlefield situation and problems with mobilization. 16/
Western countries did not promise UA 14 brigades of equipment, or even half that number. Expanding the force with new brigades, when men are desperately needed to replace losses among experienced formations deployed on the front lines, had visible tradeoffs. 17/
Not only are the new brigades inexperienced, lacking in good leadership, and generally combat ineffective, but they are also not being employed as brigades either. Instead, battalions are detached and sent piecemeal to reinforce other units. 18/
The scandal with the French trained 155th is just the most egregious case. As was seen in 2023, new formations perform poorly in offensive and defensive roles. Requiring considerable time to gain experience, cohesion, confidence, etc. 19/
Consequently, across the front units are being detached and attached to others short of men, leading to a steady fragmentation of the defensive effort and loss of cohesion. This patchwork groupings of forces must hold the front. 20/
UA still has to address longstanding issues with basic training, and command and control. Long overdue is a transition to corps from the current makeshift OSUV-OTU structure. Some existing brigades are already at or approaching the size of divisions. 21/
Meanwhile Ukrainian UAS units serve as essential force multipliers, employing remote mining, attriting Russian units before they’re able to make contact, and keeping Russian capabilities back in the critical 0-30km zone from the front line. 22/
However, tech innovation, tactical adaptation, and better integration are insufficient to compensate for failure to address the fundamentals. Russian gains may appear unimpressive, but UA needs to address manpower, training, and force management issues to sustain this fight. 23/
The air defense situation near the front line has improved, with Ukraine scaling successful use of FPV interceptors to take down Russian UAS behind the front lines. But air defense remains a major problem, especially for defending critical infrastructure. 24/
Russian long range drone strikes have increased significantly since the summer, with numbers at 5-6x compared to this spring. These attacks now employ a significant % of decoys, imitators, and other types of drones intended to exhaust air defense. 25/
Ukraine’s own long-range strike capacity has grown immensely, holding RF infrastructure at risk. As production of drones and ground launched cruise missile grows, in 2025 it will be far less dependent on Western strike capabilities, or dealing with associated restrictions. 26/
Yes, Russian losses are significant, but current RF contract rate is still providing replacements and enabling rotations. Russian payouts and bonuses have grown astronomically, raising questions on how long they can keep this up into 2025. Eventually, no amount of RUB will be enough. 27/
You could view the current situation positively: Ukraine is grinding down Russian forces. Russian gains are small relative to costs. There has been no collapse of the front. I find this narrative superficially appealing, but I think it obscures more than it enlightens. 28/
You won’t encounter these kinds of ‘positive vibes’ at the front line, or in Kyiv either. Ukraine is losing territory. The coldest part of the winter is yet ahead. The current theory of success is unclear, or what resources will be made available by the West in 2025. 29/
Given observed constraints, Russia can’t sustain this intensity of combat operations either, and faces significant headwinds in the latter half of 2025. But the current situation requires course correction. Spinning the prevailing dynamic as positive strikes me as unhelpful. 30/
Increased long-range strike capability alone is unlikely to compel Russia to negotiate as long as RF keeps making gains along the front, and increasing its own strike capacity. Stabilizing the front line is essential to buying time and forcing Moscow to reassess. 31/
AFU could attempt another offensive this winter, like the Kursk operation, seeking to shift the narrative and attain more Russian territory to bargain with. This may yield tactical successes, but will come at considerable risk to other parts of the front. 32/
The war is far from over and options remain for course correction. UA can still stabilize the front, raising the costs to Russia considerably in 2025. But the Trump administration is inheriting a weak hand, that won’t be easily rectified, lacking a common strategy with Kyiv. 33/
Ukraine and the West need to come together and form a coherent approach, tethered to the resources available, and an actual plan with steps both Kyiv and its allies must take. 34/
It will require a vision on how to stabilize the front, exhaust the RF offensive, and compel Russia into negotiations on favorable terms. Ukraine must also receive clarity on what security guarantees, and future support it can expect to deter another war.
Toretsk:
⚡️Russian soldiers near Toretsk disguise as civilians to bypass Ukrainian positions, military says.
The commander’s statement comes after reports on Russian forces starting to move toward the town of Toretsk.
— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 4, 2025 at 9:50 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russian troops are disguising themselves as civilians to bypass Ukrainian military positions in the Toretsk sector of the front line in Donetsk Oblast, commander of the mortar battery of the presidential brigade, call sign “Mozok” (“Brain”), told Suspilne on Jan. 3.
The commander’s statement comes after reports on Russian forces starting to move toward the town of Toretsk. Fighting with armored combat vehicles, motorcycles, and buggies took place in the village of Nelipivka, located south of Toretsk, in late December.
The soldier, whose name is undisclosed for security reasons, said that after passing Ukrainian positions, Russian soldiers disguised as civilians either wait for reinforcements or use anti-tank mines to attack Ukrainian positions.
“Some of the soldiers are former prisoners. They are tasked with smuggling anti-tank mines and throwing them into the area of our firing positions when the fighters cannot be knocked out during regular battles. They are trying to blow up buildings where our guys are located,” the soldier told Suspilne.
Small infantry groups are also trying to storm and bypass positions under the cover of fog, he added.
Toretsk has become one of the hottest spots in Donetsk Oblast in recent months as Russian troops continue advancing in Ukraine‘s east.
Throughout 2024, Ukraine has faced a challenging situation in its defense of the front line. Apart from Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine expects Russian forces to launch larger-scale attacks in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Kyiv:
Such a lovely photo of a magical moon over Kyiv by Yevhen Kotenko, Ukrinform
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 12:16 AM
The photographer Yevhen is famous for this series of photos he has taken over a decade of people on this one bench in Kyiv
www.rferl.org/a/lifes-thea…— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Leningrad Oblast, Russia:
Imagine the damage to Russian port infrastructure Ukraine’s Armed Forces will do when the new generation longer-range and more powerful missile-drones go into serial production 😁
How to close the Northern Sea Route? Attack its terminal and transhipment port Ust-Luga. #CreativeDestruction
— Andy Scollick (@andyscollick.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Smolensk Oblast, Russia:
Ukrainian drones overnight on Jan. 4 attacked Russia’s Avangard factory in Smolensk Oblast, which makes solid-fuel rocket motors, and missile transport and launch containers. Drones also reported in Bryansk, Smolensk, Belgorod and Pskov, and St. Petersburg airport was closed.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Taganrog, Russia:
💥🔥 Rostov, Millerovo, Valuyki, Taganrog
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 5:20 PM
❗️
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 5:20 PM
💥
— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 5:20 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight.
Here is some adjacentish material:
Ukrainian railways together with Kyiv police officers created a fairy tale journey for children from displaced families, defenders, railway workers, police officers & rescuers. Young passengers will plunge into the world of Harry Potter magic on the steam locomotive with on board fun and games❤️
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 7:45 AM
On the facebook page, there was some criticism.
Valeriia asks… “Why only for those who have children? Adults love Harry Potter too” 😅— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) January 4, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Open thread!
KatKapCC
Wow, that photo from Kotenko is incredible. That should win an award.
It will never stop being horrendous to me that the world had the ability, if not to fully prevent the full-scale war, then certainly to diminish it and end it reasonably quickly, if only the urgency and desire had been there for anyone outside of Ukraine. Instead, we continue to condemn Ukrainians to try to live through this absolute hell, day after day. Shameful.
Nukular Biskits
I know this isn’t a good analogy (and the situation is not exactly the same) but if Iran were attacking Israel as Russia is attacking Ukraine (i.e., deliberately targeting civilians), the US would have likely committed overwhelming military force against Iranian military targets.
Thanks, Adam. In a way, I “hate-read” the updates. I appreciate the time & effort you put into keeping us informed, but the information always pisses me off.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: The difference is that 1) Biden, and frankly most other politicians in both parties in the US, think of Israel as an essential ally and partner, 2) They do NOT view Ukraine the same way, 3) Iran doesn’t yet have nuclear weapons.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
Concur … but my definition of “an essential ally and partner” is obviously different than theirs.
The lesson every current and potential US adversary is learning (if they haven’t already) is that the possession of nukes is a pretty damned good deterrent to US military aggression.
And I know I’m not the first to point this out. Others have stated it far more eloquently than have I.
lashonharangue
Thanks Adam. Your dedication is appreciated. I just wish it hadn’t been required.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/panyiszabolcs/status/1875567556893044994#m
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/GLandsbergis/status/1875147814654861810#m
Jay
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is selling bullshit about a threatened ruZZian nuclear strike on Ukraine, stopped by China, in the Financial Times.
Nukular Biskits
@Jay:
Surely you jest.
Jay
@Nukular Biskits:
Nope
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1875605004347699506#m
Blinken is trying to sell hagiographic bullshit about saving the world from a nuclear WWIII.
Adam L Silverman
@lashonharangue: You’re welcome. And me too.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Nukular Biskits
@Jay:
Not to shift any of the responsibility off of President Biden, but I can’t help but think how more aggressive our response would have been had it not been for Blinken.
Jay
@Nukular Biskits:
We know that State got it “right”, that the IC still spend their time pissing their pants at every imaginary ruZZian “red line”, etc.
I guess nobody reads history anymore.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I am willing to believe that Putin could have contemplated the possibility of using nukes as a hypothetical exercise, & Xi might have gave Putin an admonition just in case Putin was serious (based on US warning). However, there is no evidence that Putin has ever serious planned to use nukes & that he was deterred from doing so by anyone. It has all been posturing, psyops & blackmail.