We now know the official policy of the Biden administration DID NOT include Ukraine successfully defeating Russia. We know this because the former senior director for Russia policy on Biden’s National Security Staff/National Security Council has now confirmed it with a direct, for attribution quote.
“When Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, President Joe Biden set three objectives for the U.S. response. Ukraine’s victory was never among them”
I often disagree with this particular author, yet this article is a heartbreaking truth
time.com/7207661/bide…
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
From Time: (emphs
When Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, President Joe Biden set three objectives for the U.S. response. Ukraine’s victory was never among them. The phrase the White House used to describe its mission at the time—supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes”—was intentionally vague. It also raised the question: As long as it takes to do what?
“We were deliberately not talking about the territorial parameters,” says Eric Green, who served on Biden’s National Security Council at the time, overseeing Russia policy. The U.S., in other words, made no promise to help Ukraine recover all of the land Russia had occupied, and certainly not the vast territories in eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula taken in its initial invasion in 2014. The reason was simple, Green says: in the White House’s view, doing so was beyond Ukraine’s ability, even with robust help from the West. “That was not going to be a success story ultimately. The more important objective was for Ukraine to survive as a sovereign, democratic country free to pursue integration with the West.”
That was one of the three objectives Biden set. He also wanted the U.S. and its allies to remain united, and he insisted on avoiding direct conflict between Russia and NATO. Looking back on his leadership during the war in Ukraine — certain to shape his legacy as a statesman — Biden has achieved those three objectives. But success on those limited terms provides little satisfaction even to some of his closest allies and advisers. “It’s unfortunately the kind of success where you don’t feel great about it,” Green says in an interview with TIME. “Because there is so much suffering for Ukraine and so much uncertainty about where it’s ultimately going to land.”
I have been explaining that this was the actual policy of Biden and his administration since late 2022 when it became clear based on his and his team’s actions. I’ve explained it doesn’t matter what Secretary Austin says in public, that’s not actually policy. All that matter is what the actual policy is. And we now have confirmation that it was not and is not for Ukraine to defeat Russia. It was and is – at least for another seventeen hours or so – for Ukraine to merely survive.
Pathetic.
Here’s last night’s/this morning’s Ukrainian air defense tally:
🛡️ Ukrainian air defences destroy 43 out of 61 drones launched by Russia overnight, 15 disappear from radar
— Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 (@pravda.ua) January 19, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Are Blocking Propagandists Working for Russia, Individuals Who Have Sided with the Enemy, and Those Aiding Russia in Continuing the War – Address by the President
19 January 2025 – 14:55
I wish you health, fellow Ukranians!
I have just signed a decree enacting the NSDC’s decision on sanctions. We are blocking propagandists working for Russia, individuals who have sided with the enemy, and those aiding Russia in continuing the war. Additionally, we are continuing to revoke state honors – only those who truly dedicate their lives to Ukraine deserve the title of Hero of Ukraine. We are also preparing new sanctions, which will be announced soon.
Today, there will also be several appointments. First, a survey on the new head of Hetman Sahaidachnyi National Land Forces Academy has been completed in the Army Plus app. It’s important that this decision is made together with our military. The Commander-in-Chief and the Commander of the Land Forces proposed five candidates: Brigadier Generals Serhiy Baranov and Mykhailo Sydorenko, and Colonels Yevhen Lasiychuk, Oleksandr Bakulin, and Roman Kachur. Colonel Roman Kachur received the most votes. He is well aware of the frontline, having commanded the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. I spoke with Colonel Kachur – he has a clear vision of what needs to change in military education, particularly at the National Land Forces Academy. I instructed him to present to the public what will change at the Academy, conduct a full audit of the Academy – covering its funding, the cadets’ education, and the staff. I also instructed Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov to appoint Colonel Kachur as the Academy’s head. We need the highest quality training for our soldiers and officers, training based on the experience of this war and the heroism of Ukrainian warriors on the frontlines. The Ukrainian Army needs tactical-level leaders – strong sergeants and strong lieutenants. I thank all our warriors who participated in the poll. Through Army Plus and other digital tools of our state, we will continue engaging our citizens in state decision-making. The second appointment involves Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov, who will work with our partners in Wiesbaden. His task will be to coordinate security assistance for Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
NATO and the EU:
I politely disagree. I don’t think we can pick & choose whether we believe anonymous sources depending on whether we like what they say or not. The Post journalists who wrote the story are experienced professionals with good sources. I don’t think it’s appropriate to berate them for this reporting.
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 2:20 PM
I’m going to politely disagree with the disagreement. I have the displeasure of having to deal with US defense and military intelligence on a regular basis. The reason it is unpleasant has nothing to do with the actual intelligence professionals. Rather, it is unpleasant because they are forced to work within a system made even more dysfunctional post 9-11. Part of the post 9-11 reforms was to institute a set of rules under the authority of the Director of National Intelligence to ensure accountability in regard to finished intelligence/intelligence products. This established some bizarrely convoluted process with around twenty steps in order for something to be finalized as intelligence. While the idea was good – to prevent the intel being cooked by senior leader interference the way it was in the run up to the invasion of Iraq – the execution has turned a very large number of smart, dedicated, hard working people into bureaucrats. Every intelligence professional I’ve had to deal with is scared to death of being reviewed and audited under these rules. This has made them exceedingly risk averse where checking all the boxes along each step is as important, if not more important, than anything else. While I think very highly of the intel professionals I’ve worked with, I do not think very highly of how they do what they do and, as a result, what they produce if they produce anything at all, because of the fear they are working under.
I’d stick with what Finnish intel has to say on this until/unless someone is going to show their work publicly with atribution as to why the Finns have this wrong.
Georgia:
Day 53 continuous, day 83 overall. Today’s the coldest it’s been and it’s raining for the first time. We’ve been lucky with a dry winter. People are gathering for the principled blocking of Rustaveli regardless. #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Much more people joined later. Day 53 (83). #GeorgiaProtests
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Georgian ambassador to France Gotcha Javakhishvili resigned last spring to protest “a Russian law” (foreign agent bill).
He is now protesting in the streets against the Russian takeover and explained his decision to quit here:
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 5:48 PM
The GD president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, pardoned 613 convicts.
📸 Natia Leverashvili/Publika
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 11:38 AM
The regime’s illegitimate President pardoned 613 inmates today.
With everything going on, many people assume this was done in order to free up prison cells for future detained protesters. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Also possible that they want to use some of the prisoners as Titushky (regime thugs).
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Police mistakenly detained 2 activists on their way home from the protest, intending to arrest someone else, says their lawyer. Officers weren’t in uniform or identifiable. Still, the activists remain in the detention center.
#terrorinGeorgia
— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Can’t wait for the day when Georgia’s free, and I can have a life again: take a walk and read, travel for leisure, learn a language, grow a plant, paint, plan future and just not be in the survival mode 24/7.
Most of us are like this now.— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 5:22 PM
And for the majority of that majority, this lasts since mid-April last year, not these last 53 days alone.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Back to Ukraine.
Back in Ukraine, one of the first people I meet is a Georgian fighting for Ukraine.
He fought in Bakhmut, Donbas, was injured and was the only survivor of his unit.
His story was especially moving on return from Tbilisi.
— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Rare footage of the launch of two AASM Hammer bombs by the Ukrainian Su-25 and launch of four GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb by the Ukrainian Su-27.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Kharkiv:
A 14-year-old girl was injured by shrapnel in today’s Russian attack on a residential area in Zolochiv, Kharkiv region‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Russian drones in Kharkiv skies again‼️It’s the second time today
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Kherson Oblast:
💥Extremely valuable Russian radar Nebo-SVU destroyed in Kherson region, estimated cost of such radar system is about $100mln:
“1L119 Nebo-SVU radar station was attacked in Kherson region. The attack was carried out using 3 UAVs. The diesel power station DES ED3x30-T400-1RA1M6 was also destroyed.”
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Zaporizhzhia:
As far as I can tell, other than the explosion, no one in the video was injured, but just in case:
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
A shocking video has emerged of the Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia on jan 8, which killed 14 people and injured 127 others.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 4:32 PM
ALL CLEAR!!
Ocheretyne, Donetsk Oblast:
Ocheretyne, Donetsk region. Russia “liberated” it.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Toretsk:
A Ukrainian tank from the 28th Brigade near the Toretsk mine is using direct fire to destroy a building housing occupiers during a firefight. Although the Russians are unable to secure this stronghold, the situation remains difficult for the Defense Forces.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 12:10 PM
The Kursk cross border offensive:
Servicemen of Ukraine’s 95th Brigade destroying North Korean mercenary cannon fodder in the Kursk operational zone.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 7:40 AM
The Tyvan or Tuvan Republic, Russia:
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
Here it is, the Russian world! So vivid, so striking! In a video that has caused a stir on Russian channels, military police officers in the Republic of Tuva brutally torment wounded assault troops before sending them off to war.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Part2.
They beat them with batons, force them to strip, and use tasers.
Frankly, there’s little left to add. This is that very enigmatic Russian soul.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 6:27 PM
ALL CLEAR!!
Again, the Tyvans or Tuvans, as well as the Buryats, are ethnic Mongols. They have a long martial tradition of serving in the military of whichever country controls their historic lands. This includes imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, and now post-Soviet Russia. Military careers are also one of the only reliably economically viable options for young Tyvan or Buryat men. Both “republics” are exceedingly poor and jobs are scarce. Putin, Shoygu, Gerasimov, etc have relied on Tyvans and Buryats, as well as other non-ethnic Russians, to serve in their genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine over the past three years. They have taken an unusually high number of KIAs and casualties.
Kaluga, Russia:
The Kaluga region of Russia has been attacked by UAVs. Local fire teams are attempting to shoot them down.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 3:33 PM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron.
First, some adjacent material.
I have just discovered Lapki and am going to signup tomorrow! It is free puppy yoga classes to help deal with the stress and anxiety of the war. There are classes in Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Kharkiv and Dnipro, if you want to join❤️
— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 8:38 AM
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Режим «копати» on 🙂↕️✅ #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Mode “dig” on 🙂 ↕️✅#песпатрон
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
I don’t necessary blame the Biden team for thinking at the outset Ukraine had no path to victory. That was the conventional wisdom. Why did they not change their strategy after the Ukrainians handed the Russians their asses in Spring – Autumn 2022?
A Ghost to Most
I often wonder who will keep the daily daily, when civil war breaks out here.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Chief Oshkosh
@YY_Sima Qian: Maybe they believed Putin’s bullshit about nuclear escalation.
TONYG
“he insisted on avoiding direct conflict between Russia and NATO.” … In other words, one of Biden’s objectives was to avoid a nuclear war that would kill tens or hundreds of millions of people. Biden was correct in having that objective and he succeeded in attaining that objective. What Russian has been doing since February of 2022 has been a crime — but the fact of the matter is that nuclear weapons exist, and their existence for almost the past 80 years has changed the parameters of what is rational and what is possible. American conventional air, ground and naval forces could probably destroy the Russian forces in Ukraine in a week or two — but at the cost of risking a nuclear war. That is the ugly reality, and Biden did that best that he could facing that reality. What a demented lunatic like Trump will do remains to be seen.
Betty
Once you pointed out that the US was holding back, I assumed they were afraid if Putin lost, he would be ousted and Russia would be in chaos, setting loose their nuclear weapons.
Adam L Silverman
@TONYG: There was never a real or plausible chance of nuclear war. I have explained this repeatedly over the past three years. Russia’s nuclear doctrine is maskirovka and agitprop intended to get inside Russian adversary’s decision makers heads and prevent them from doing what needs to be done.
chemiclord
I mean… there’s a degree that it wasn’t ever Biden’s say if Ukraine achieved victory, so it being a policy goal or not is kinda irrelevant.
Biden’s policy had always been balancing aid and keeping a rogue state with nuclear weapons from potentially using them. And considering that (at least in this case) US Intelligence regarding Russia and Ukraine had been pretty much spot on, if they were telling Biden that there was non-zero chance Putin’s threats of using nukes were not merely empty threats, I’m inclined to believe them.
Adam L Silverman
@Betty: The Russia collapsing definitely seems to be part of the miscalculation. That’s a separate issue from the nukes getting lose. There are ways to ensure their security as what is likely to happen would be a rump Russia centering on the metropoles and other majority ethnically Russian areas and an unknown number of new states or areas absorbed by Russia’s neighbors. For instance, I can see Tyvan and Buryatia rejoining Mongolia. I could also see them going independent.
Parfigliano
@Chief Oshkosh: If they did they are idiots. Oh wait the evidence says they are idiots.
Parfigliano
Next big reveal is going to be DOJ was hindered/stopped from the top prosecuting Trump.
Gin & Tonic
@chemiclord: As I have repeatedly pointed out, American (and all of “Western”, frankly) academia has been russia-centric since at least WWII. How many universities are there where you can pursue a PhD in Ukrainian or Belarussian, let alone Chechen or Dagestani or Buryat? This means that the US foreign-policy “blob” has always viewed events in Eastern Europe through a russian lens, and do a large degree still does. I personally know people who have been professionally sidelined in that environment for advocating a Ukrainian perspective.
Parfigliano
@TONYG: Why not just say…sorry Ukraine cakes and eggs. Sucks you got dealt the egg.
Domestic policy Biden great. Foreign not.
TONYG
@Adam L Silverman: I hope that that’s true. I don’t have your expertise in that area (or any area). However, a tiny risk of a catastrophe is something to be avoided, and I think that any American president (other than Trump) would have made the same calculation, and that it was not any mistake that was unique to Biden. (Trump is another story. I suspect that now that the American people in their wisdom have chose Trump, Trump will soon just hand Ukraine to Putin and that will be that.)
Gin & Tonic
@TONYG: Ukraine is not Trump’s (or any US President’s) to “hand” to anyone.
Jay
@chemiclord:
As of 2023, since the end of the SoBe-It Union ruZZia has threatened the “West”, 128 times with threats of nuclear war, if the “West” crossed any of their “red lines”.
128 “red lines” crossed, no nuclear war.
In 2024 there were at least 40 more ruZZian threats, all empty.
Funny that.
TONYG
@Parfigliano: I have a lot of sympathy for Ukraine and a lot of antipathy for Russia under Putin, but the fact is that Ukraine is not U.S. territory, nor is it a member of NATO. No U.S. president that I can imagine would have directly attacked Russian forces because of Ukraine. That was never going to happen, in the same way that the U.S. was never going to attack the Soviet Union in 1968 after the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. Perhaps the U.S. should have provided more military aid to Ukraine than the $183 billion that was sent — but I don’t think that Congress would have approved it. It’s ugly and unjust, but November 5th demonstrated that a plurality of the American electorate cares about Ukraine about as much as they care about the millions of Americans living in poverty — that is, not at all.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
Thank you, for pointing this out again, along with all the claimed ruZZian “achievements”, from arts to sciences that are not ruZZian at all.
Jay
Perun does a deep dive into Ukrainian Equipment Reserves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY
Gin & Tonic
@TONYG: Great straw man there. Who has advocated that the US military attack russia over its invasion of Ukraine?
sconosciuto
Biden’s solution to the Iraq war aftermath mess was to divide it into three states: Shia, Sunni, and Kurd. How Turkiyë was going to be persuaded to allow an official Kurdish state on its border, I have no idea and Biden probably didn’t either.
He may have been well-versed in foreign policy but his instincts haven’t exactly qualified him to be called a “guru”.
sconosciuto
TONYG
@Gin & Tonic: OK; I apologize. Yes; nobody on this post is advocating a direct attack on Russia. But I’m reacting to statements like this one … “All that matter is what the actual policy is. And we now have confirmation that it was not and is not for Ukraine to defeat Russia.” I hate to say it, but I don’t think that Ukraine was ever capable of defeating Russia without direct intervention of NATO forces (in spite of the many billions of dollars of U.S. military aid). Russia is just too big and has too many bodies to throw into the meat-chopper. And the Russian character, for whatever historical reasons, does not lead people to question or disobey authority. Would more U.S. military aid to Ukraine have made a difference? Maybe, but I doubt that Congress would have approved it and — more importantly — the American public demonstrated in November that they don’t give a damn about impoverished Americans, and they certainly don’t give a damn about Ukraine. Given those facts, I don’t think that Biden could have done more than he did. And when Trump is back in office 24 hours from now, Putin will once again control American foreign policy.
KatKapCC
Since the usual suspects who demand that no one ever ever ever criticize Biden over anything at all don’t usually visit these threads (because it would hurt their Biden-worshipping feelings), I’ll just say that while I obviously deeply wish we had four more years of Biden and/or Harris rather than four more years of Trump…this new article, coupled with the endless times Adam has told us this was the case, makes me want to slap everyone in that admin who had anything to do with this part of the job.
Sally
@Adam L Silverman: I regularly listen to the podcast Ukraine: The Latest. The historian there, Francis Dearnley, has often said that whenever Russian governments collapse, or have some emergency, they turn inwards. When they were confronted in Syria, they did exactly what he said they would, and turned tail and went home. No nukes, no overwhelming force, just went home.
Dearnley posits we should not be afraid of Putin being ousted, as whether or not his replacement were worse, they would not be dropping nukes. They would be all at the Kremlin focusing on their survival, political and physical.
As to whether the US IC have been spot on with their assessments of Russia. In my experience, the IC have consistently and dramatically overestimated the strength of the various forms of Russia for many decades. The military, the economy, the science and tech industries have all been much weaker than represented. I have read that the US military were shocked at the poor state of the Soviet military after the collapse of the USSR. We remain scared of Russia at our peril.
Corrupt dictatorships do not make strong, robust societies, but weak, hollowed out ones. I think that has become evident in the war in Ukraine
I don’t understand how the IC can retain any credibility when they have been so consistently wrong for so long.
Parfigliano
@TONYG: they were killing Russians. Then all sudden we weren’t. Follow the money
Matt
No plan to help Ukraine win, but unlimited weapons for Israel to do genocide. What an utter piece of garbage.
Yutsano
Biden is going to be remembered for some great domestic policies and some terrible foreign policies. His caution probably was an old time Cold War mentality that couldn’t adapt to the situation in front of him, and that’s a terrible thing. But Jake Sullivan needs to be tarred and feathered.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
patrick II
@YY_Sima Qian:
The two reasons given for not supporting Ukraine in its goal of returning all of their land seem to be in conflict — the first is that Ukraine couldn’t possibly win and the effort would be costly and futile. The second reason was that they could win and Putin would go nuclear. There was no way out for Ukraine.
I’ll just add that Putin’s goal in Ukraine is to take all of Ukraine. If that doesn’t happen will our effort to appease him be in vain and he will still go nuclear?
Geminid
@sconosciuto: There already something like a Kurdish state on Turkiye’s border with Iraq. That would by the four northern provinces controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government based at Erbil.
The Iraqi constitution allows the Kurdish Regional Government autonomy, with its own Assembly and local administration, but other elements of sovereignity are reserved to the Iraqi state. Within these limitations, the KRG carries on relations with other nations. Their Prime Minister, Masrour(?) Barzani recently visited the United Arab Emirates and met with that nations head, Mr. al Zayed. They had economic matters to discuss, but they probably also talked about the situation in Syria.
Believe it or not, Turkiye and the KRG have friendly relations. They’re friendly enough that when Turkish President Erdogan last June, authorities hung Turkish flags along his motorcade route, This caused various heads to explode among the Kurdish diaspora and many Western sympathizers who see Turkiye as the arch-foe of all Kurds everywhere.
Iraq’s Kurdish Region is the closest Kurds have come to an independent state in the modern era. It has its own internal stresses, but overall it’s a well-run, secure and tolerant place. It’s poor though, which is why economic development and not transnational Kurdish independence is its government’s prime motivation.
Erbil-based Rudaw English is one good source for reporting on Iraq’s Kurdish Region and events nearby. It’s a fascinating place with an important role in regional politics.
TONYG
I am far from being a “Biden worshipper” — when I voted for him in 2020 I thought that he was too old and essentially a mediocrity, but I’d take a mediocrity over a psychopath any day. I’ve always been a firm believer in choosing the lesser of two evils. But, in my opinion, much of the criticism of Biden over the past four years has been unfair. Hi presidency reminds me of that of Jimmy Carter when I was a youth. He (like Carter) encountered difficult situations both domestically and internationally, and he handled them the best that he could with much opposition from Congress and the Supreme Court. I think that dumping on Biden now — when the U.S. faces a real threat of fascism from Trump — is missing the point. Just my opinion.