Another long day filled with completely batshit bonkers events and news. I’m fried, I know everyone else is fried, so I’m just going to run through the basics again tonight so I can go offline.
A quick housekeeping note: If you show up in the comments and start demanding I do things you are going to get ignored the first time and banned the second time. I don’t get paid to do this, you are not my employer, and I do it despite the antisemitic commenters, the front pager that defends their right to post not just antisemitic, but also homophobic and transphobic comments because we “have to follow policy,” and the two other front pagers who defend the front pager defending the antisemites, homophobes, and transphobes. Had I not promised Cole I’d do one of these every day for the duration of the war, I wouldn’t post anything here at all. I trust we will not have to have this conversation again. I want to be very clear, I am not bothered by questions or by someone asking if I can do something. What bothers me are demands as if I somehow am obligated to do things for you.
President Zelenskyy has a deal for the Gulf States:
Ukraine is offering highly successful interceptor drones to Mideast countries in exchange for Patriot missiles.
With one PAC-3 costing $4m, and a Sting interceptor costing $2500, a partnership could solve 2 problems at once.
Mutual defence against a mutual threat helps us all.
— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 3:23 AM
4 years of war against the Russian aggressors including the invaluable experience as well as technology Ukraine has accumulated, and it is now the nations of the world in dire situation which ask Ukraine for help. The best part, Ukraine gives them the help.
— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 6:12 PM
This is important because Secretary Drunken Violent Zipper Malfunction had to make some admissions to Congress today:
The drones are posing a bigger problem than anticipated, – Pete Hegseth
NO SHIT
— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 4:51 PM
„Trump administration officials told lawmakers during a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill Tuesday that Iran’s Shahed attack drones represent a major challenge and US air defenses will not be able to intercept them all, according to a source in the briefing.“
— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 6:24 PM
The best equipped and funded militaries in the world are unable to cope with conditions Ukraine is handling on a daily base.
Now, I have seen everything.
— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 6:24 PM
After another Iranian attack, drone debris marked “Geran-2” in Russian was found near Jebel Ali Port in Dubai. Notably, the footage circulating on social media is being posted by Russian relocants and tourists who are riding out Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the UAE.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 5:11 AM
Putin is supplying cheap, numerous drones to Iran to deplete US air defenses and drag out the war – he reckons Trump has limited patience and attention, and in the end the U.S. president will withdraw while claiming victory.
Everyone else will see a clear US defeat, however.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 12:32 PM
On top of the long documented problems with the US defense industrial base (DIB), we now know that the obscenely expensive weapons systems and munitions the US produces don’t handle Iran’s drones very well. When you combine the production problems with the performance issues (apparently 2 of 3 superpowers…) this creates a huge opening for the one country whose defense industrial base is at the cutting edge of research, development, and actually delivering effective weapons systems and munitions that can deal with drone warfare. And that one country is Ukraine. The Ukrainians aren’t just doing this to generate good will with the deep pocketed Gulf states or to get more PAC-3 interceptors for their Patriot batteries, though those are themselves worthwhile objectives, it is to do a real time sales expo for their military technology.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Are Working to Bring All Our People Home From Russian Captivity; We Hope for Good News – Address by the President
4 March 2026 – 21:12
I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!
A brief update on today. I held a Staff meeting on matters related to the front, ensuring Ukraine’s active operations and our defense. I thank every Ukrainian warrior who is truly securing strong positions for Ukraine. Our positions at the front, our defense production, our ability to thwart Russian plans – these are our strengths in relations with key partners, and our diplomacy is what gives our partners more faith in Ukraine. At the Staff meeting, relevant instructions were issued to both the Minister of Defense and the military command. Today, I also spoke with Rustem Umerov regarding his communications with the American side. We continue to engage with the United States practically on a daily basis. For now, because of the situation with Iran, the necessary signals for a trilateral meeting haven’t come yet. But as soon as the security situation and the broader political context allow us to resume the trilateral diplomatic work, it will be done. Ukraine is ready for it.
I am grateful to the intelligence services, the Office, and all involved agencies for the steps taken to make further prisoner exchanges possible. We are working to bring all our people home from Russian captivity. We hope for good news. In recent days, we have been communicating very actively with representatives of countries in the Middle East and the Gulf region – and it is clear what their main request to Ukraine is. Everyone facing attacks from Iran confronts an extraordinary challenge: “shaheds,” which are difficult to shoot down without the proper expertise and adequate weaponry. In just a few days of active strikes, Iranians launched more than 800 missiles and over 1,400 drones against neighboring countries. Attacks from Iran continue constantly. Although the intensity of missile strikes from Iran has partially decreased now, a new threat has emerged – the Iranian regime’s intent to block the Strait of Hormuz. This is a globally significant route for transporting oil and gas. This very threat has destabilized energy prices across many markets. We recently discussed this with Ursula von der Leyen. It is crucial to protect people’s lives. It is crucial to restore stability and prevent the war from expanding. The Iranian regime must not benefit in any way, and even more importantly, must not destroy lives – neither there, in the region, nor globally – and this affects us as well. And this is our shared interest: to help people defend themselves and also to assist in rapidly restoring stability in critically important supply chains. Partners are turning to us, to Ukraine, for help with protection against “shaheds” – for expertise and for practical support. Requests on this matter have also come from the American side. In recent days, I have spoken with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. Further talks with other regional leaders are planned. We are coordinating with our European partners as well. Of course, any assistance we provide is only on the condition that it does not weaken our own defense in Ukraine and that it serves as an investment in our diplomatic capabilities: we help protect against war those who help us – Ukraine – bring the war to a dignified conclusion. We work for peace and for real security. I want to thank everyone who is helping us.
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also presented awards and honors to Ukrainians for their contributions in fighting against Russian aggression.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Presented State Honors and the Golden Heart Awards to Ukrainian Volunteers, Doctors, Educators, Scientists, Cultural Figures, Athletes, and Journalists for Their Contribution to the Fight Against Russian Aggression
4 March 2026 – 18:03
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with volunteers, doctors, educators, scientists, cultural figures, athletes, and journalists to present state awards on the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude for their work in strengthening the Ukrainian army and society, and for promoting Ukrainian culture.
“Ukraine has a long history of defending its identity and its right to be a nation that determines for itself how to live and with whom to share its life. There were times when Ukraine could not withstand this struggle and, sadly, lost its freedom. And now is the time when Ukraine has reached its greatest significance and the greatest potential it has ever had,” said the Head of State.
The President emphasized that issues of fundamental importance to our country cannot be resolved without Ukraine.
“But this does not mean that our work is done or that Ukrainians can simply take pride in what has already been achieved. Russia has still not accepted our existence. The defense of Ukraine and respect for Ukraine demand our daily strength, action, and the daily courage of all Ukrainians,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy added.
He stressed that Ukraine remembers all its people who have given their lives to ensure the country remains independent and free. Attendees ob
The Head of State handed over Orders of Merit, III class, to the relatives and friends of volunteer Veronika Sokol and athletes Oleksii Khabarov and Mykhailo Tsap, who were awarded posthumously.
Volunteer and servicewoman, Veronika Sokol, chaired the working group for the Wall of Remembrance memorial, collecting photos and information on the fallen and building an archive. She initiated the Day of Remembrance of the Defenders of Ukraine on August 29 and contributed to the creation of the Museum of the Russo-Ukrainian War. She signed a military service contract in 2024 and passed away on November 12, 2025, due to illness.
A shooter on Ukraine’s national team, Oleksii Khabarov, was an International-Class Master of Sport in Ukraine, European champion, and World Cup medalist. He was killed on August 19, 2025, in an exchange of fire near Shakhove in the Pokrovsk direction.
Coach of Ukraine’s national beach handball and handball teams, Mykhailo Tsap, was a multiple-time Ukrainian champion. He was killed on February 24, 2024, during a combat mission near Luhanske village in the Donetsk region.
Awards presented by the President personally included:
Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, V class, to Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor, President of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Anatoliy Zahorodniy. Despite the full-scale war, he ensures NASU functions effectively and aligns its work with Ukraine’s defense and security needs. Research institutes of the NASU are analyzing materials from fragments of enemy munitions.
Order of Merit, II class, to General Director and Artistic Director of the Kharkiv National Academic Opera and Ballet Theatre named after M. V. Lysenko, Igor Tuluzov. He adapted the theatre’s underground spaces for rehearsals and performances. Under his leadership, the theatre runs rehabilitation and patriotic projects supporting volunteers, veterans, and the local community.
Order of Merit, III class, has been awarded to:
Head of the Recovery and Returning projects, Svitlana Hrytsenko. Since the start of the war, her coordination with international organizations has resulted in the delivery of medicines, food, and heating supplies to over 3 million Ukrainians. She manages the development of Recovery and Returning centers for military rehabilitation.
Director of the Odessa Museum of Contemporary Art, Semen Kantor. Under his leadership, the museum has hosted numerous events, including international biennales of modern art, which established a platform for artistic cooperation among cultural institutions and artists from over 30 countries.
Senior Advisor at a Department Unit of the Come Back Alive Foundation, Andrii Moruha. A veteran of combat operations, he trained around 600 warriors in concealed-position shooting. He initiated the development of a sight for infantry and artillery fire from concealed positions and its provision to units. He is working on implementing the Armor ballistic calculator for firing from concealed firing positions.
Musician from the band Kurgan & Agregat and volunteer, Ramil Elman Ogly Nasirov. The band donates vehicles, drones, and other equipment to Ukrainian defenders. During their European tour, the musicians raised over UAH 14 million, which was directed to the needs of Defense Intelligence, and more than UAH 9 million raised at a single concert in Kyiv’s Palace of Sports went to Ukraine’s Defense Forces.
Theatre and film actress, Anastasiia Pustovit. After the full-scale Russian invasion began, she spent two weeks in the temporarily occupied Nemishaieve village of the Bucha district. On February 26, 2022, together with like-minded colleagues, she organized a volunteer headquarters to assist the community. Since then, she has been actively engaged in volunteer work, supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine and internally displaced persons.
Director of the Heart of Azovstal NGO, Kseniia Sukhova. Since the start of the full-scale war, she has organized aid for residents of Mariupol in Zaporizhzhia. Since 2023, she has headed Heart of Azovstal. The organization has provided assistance to over 8,000 defenders of Mariupol and their families.
Volunteer of the Ukrainian Vector charity fund, Oleksii Tykhonovych. He helped secure UAH 23 million in donor funds for military needs, enabling the purchase of cargo trucks, minibuses, 100 attack FPV drones and copters, counter-drone systems, Valkyrie UAVs, Starlink satellite systems, a specialized medical vehicle, and buggies for evacuating the wounded.
Journalist and editor of the Japanese-language news service at the Ukrinform agency, Takashi Hirano. A Japanese journalist, diplomat, writer, and photographer who has lived and worked in Ukraine since 2008. He is professionally fluent in Ukrainian and brings the truth about the war and Ukraine’s situation to the Japanese audience, countering Russian propaganda. He has published several books in Japanese about Ukraine and studies and promotes the Crimean Tatar language.
Recipients of the Order of Princess Olga, III class, are:
Literary scholar and writer, Vira Ageyeva. Co-founder of the Kyiv Institute of Gender Studies, Doctor of Philology, and Shevchenko Prize laureate. Author of numerous publications on Ukrainian modernist literature, biographical studies, and gender aspects of art. Created a series of scholarly portraits of Ukrainian writers, highlighting lesser-known aspects of their lives.
Document specialist at the Come Back Alive foundation, Anastasiia Shvedska. She effectively supports the foundation’s work by ensuring an uninterrupted supply of essential equipment to the military, and manages documents from over 2,500 military units, educational institutions, and medical facilities.
Recipients of the President of Ukraine’s Golden Heart award are:
Stand-up comedian and volunteer, Vasyl Baidak. One of the pioneers of creative fundraising for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he developed the stand-up volunteering format, organizing numerous charity concerts and tours, with 100% of proceeds going to the army. He purchases and delivers critically needed equipment to Ukrainian defenders.
Volunteer and director of the Mercy and Health Rehabilitation Center, Kateryna Bohadelnikova. Her center provides physical and psychological rehabilitation for warriors, veterans, and civilians. She initiated the opening of five rehabilitation centers across Ukraine and delivered 95 fully equipped ICU ambulances to military and medical units. She also organizes support events for wives of fallen defenders and their children.
Volunteer and director of the IT for Victory charitable foundation, Viktor Ivankov. He has been active in volunteer work since 2014. He united employees of several IT companies in Vinnytsia. Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, his total support amounts to UAH 167 million. He assisted over 80 units, provided 200 pieces of equipment, and around 400 drones. He also funded the development of new medium- and long-range attack UAVs.
Head of the department at the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation, Anton Pyzhykov. He has been actively involved in volunteering since 2014. During the full-scale war, he initiated a project to acquire 1,000 night-vision devices for the Defense Forces. He obtained a U.S. export license to purchase third-generation PVS-14 night-vision devices. He organizes direct delivery of foreign-made military equipment and gear to Ukraine.
Volunteer and founder of the Sternenko Community Charitable Foundation, Serhii Sternenko. He raised around UAH 6 billion for the Armed Forces during the war. He organizes systematic fundraising through his media channels. He also provided over 244,000 drones to the military, including “shahed” interceptors.
Volunteer and tactical medicine manager at the Together for Ukraine Charitable Foundation, Matvii Suslov. Under his leadership, over 200,000 tactical medical supplies were delivered to Ukrainian units. He organized training for more than 1,000 Special Operations Forces and Defense Intelligence personnel and around 200 tactical medicine instructors. He also initiated and coordinated the first international Tourniquet Forum 2025.
Volunteer, singer, and director of the Iryna Fedyshyn Charitable Foundation, Iryna Chovnyk (Fedyshyn). She organized and held over 240 charity concerts in Ukraine and abroad, directing all proceeds to the Armed Forces and humanitarian causes. She also facilitated the acquisition and delivery of over 400 units of military equipment and hundreds of critical supplies to defenders.
Coordinator of the military community of the Victory Drones project of the NGO Aerial Reconnaissance Support Center, Hanna Shkarupa. Since 2022, she has been strengthening the technological capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. She organizes and moderates online lectures for defenders involved with UAVs and other modern warfare technologies.
The title Merited Doctor of Ukraine was conferred on neurosurgeon at Okhmatdyt, Andrii Harkusha; transfusiologist and head of the transfusiology department at the Heart Institute, Victoria Horobets; and head of the orthopaedic-traumatology department at the Kyiv Clinical Hospital of Railway Transport No. 1, Oleh Lehenkyi.
The title Merited Education Worker of Ukraine was awarded to the rector of the National University “Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic,” Viktor Hreshta; director of the Human Potential Development Center at Mariupol State University, Lidiia Korobchenko; and senior lecturer of the Department of Food Technology and Restaurant Business Organization at the Professional College of Technology, Business and Law of Lesia Ukrainka Volyn National University, Ihor Makaruk.
Georgia:
hundreds of scholars from around world expressed their solidarity with Ilia State University #Georgia. I have often been critical of a residual few who collaborate w perpetrators, but real story is how many colleagues are *entirely* clear in their values. More than open.substack.com/pub/ganatleb…
— Hans Gutbrod (@hansgutbrod.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:58 AM
100 signatories from Germany, more than 80 from US and UK, and representation all across, to Bulgaria, Estonia, and many others more. This really means a lot.
Find more in our latest for Ganatleba, also with a link to join in.
— Hans Gutbrod (@hansgutbrod.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:58 AM
Publicly questioning the Georgian Dream’s legitimacy is now 3 years jail.
Russian term of “extremism” has also appeared in law in Georgia: “extremism against constitutional order” is also 3 years jail.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 6:21 AM
Nothing screams lack of legitimacy to govern as criminalizing the public statements on your lack of legitimacy to govern.
Georgia, 2026.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 6:33 AM
France:
Ukraine expecting additional Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets – Defense Ministry #Ukraine
— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) March 4, 2026 at 8:47 AM
From the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:
Ukraine expects an additional delivery of Mirage 2000-5 aircraft from France. This will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s air capabilities, as the aircraft can effectively destroy cruise missiles and drones used for attacks, including Shahed.
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine outlines what is known about these aircraft.
Mirage 2000 is a multirole fighter aircraft equipped with digital avionics. It features modern radar systems and electronic warfare equipment that significantly enhance its combat capabilities.
The Dassault Mirage aircraft Ukraine will receive are close to the 4++ class, exceeding the MiG-29 fighters currently in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Mirage aircraft are extensively modernised fourth-generation fighters whose combat capabilities, radar equipment, and manoeuvrability approach those of fifth-generation fighter aircraft. They have improved avionics and are lighter and more manoeuvrable than most similar aircraft. They can conduct combat missions at altitudes of up to 18 km.
Mirage 2000 aircraft are equipped with powerful radar systems and weapons, including high-precision Magic-2 missiles. This enables them to effectively detect and intercept low-observable cruise missiles and drones used for attacks, such as Shahed, Geran, and Gerbera. They can also neutralise enemy operational-tactical reconnaissance drones. Therefore, Mirage 2000 aircraft are important for countering russia’s aerial terror, one of the key priorities addressed in Ukraine’s War Plan.
In addition, the Mirage 2000’s weapon stations are compatible with a full range of NATO-standard air-launched weapons, allowing the aircraft to employ Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, AASM Hammer aerial guided bombs, and other types of armament.
Having such aircraft in service significantly strengthens Ukraine’s air defence, which is particularly important during large-scale missile and drone attacks by the aggressor.
To recap, the transfer of Mirage 2000 aircraft was discussed during a February meeting between Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Mykhailo Fedorov, and France’s Minister of the Armed Forces and Veterans Affairs, Catherine Vautrin.
The first Mirage 2000 aircraft were delivered to Ukraine by France in early 2025. Ukrainian pilots underwent several months of training in France to ensure effective use of the aircraft.
Hungary:
Bunker midget meets outgoing Hungarian Foreign Minister.
— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 1:15 PM
The Mediterranean Sea:
Photos have emerged of the Russian shadow fleet gas tanker Arctic Metagaz, which exploded and caught fire yesterday in the Mediterranean Sea 🔥
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 5:16 AM
Rough calcs…
The vessel plus cargo was likely valued at as much as $300,000,000
China unlikely to have paids for the cargo, so total loss to Russia.
— H I Sutton (@covertshores.bsky.social) March 3, 2026 at 4:24 PM
🚢Russia’s official version of events states that the LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz was attacked in the Mediterranean Sea by Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels.
According to Russian Ministry of Transport, incident occurred on March 3 near Malta, while the tanker was sailing from the port of Murmansk.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 4:04 AM
/2. The ministry claims the attack was launched from the Libyan coast using Ukrainian unmanned boats.
All 30 crew members, who are Russian citizens, were reportedly rescued.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 4:04 AM
Chechnya:
Apti Alaudinov, commander of the special unit “Akhmat”, said he is ready to “go and help Iran even now”, but so far all Russia does with its allies is abandon them.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Ireland:
Chris, an Irishman, comes to the Russian Embassy in Dublin every day to perform the Ukrainian National Anthem.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 12:42 PM
The United States:
“For four years, the White House was led by an extremely inexperienced leader who generously transferred much of our advanced weaponry to another country – Ukraine.” – a spokesperson for the White House.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:36 PM
American aid has helped save countless Ukrainian lives from brutal and unprovoked invaders, who execute civilians in the streets if not stopped, as we saw in Bucha.
I can only thank those Americans who do not believe it was “stupid” and “for nothing.”
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:20 PM
Karoline Leavitt is both an unqualified ignoramus and an embarrassment.
The BBC reports that 200,000 Ukrainians in the United States are at risk of deportation. Even people with valid documents are reportedly being held by ICE for months.
www.bbc.com/ukrainian/ar…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:28 PM
From BBC Ukraine (machine translated):
On the evening of November 19, 2025, Andriy (name changed) was returning from work. He was driving a truck when police and ICE (US Federal Immigration Service) approached him. His documents were checked and, according to Andrii, handcuffed almost immediately. It happened in the city of Charles Town, in the east of the United States.
ICE representatives announced to Andrii that he was in the country illegally.
The man came to the USA under the U4U (Uniting for Ukraine) program in 2024. This migration humanitarian program for Ukrainians was launched by President Joe Biden’s administration in April 2022 in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion.
It gives Ukrainians the right to legally stay in the States for two years with the possibility of extension, as well as work, study, and have a driver’s license.
The program, despite a certain delay at the beginning of 2025, was continued under President Donald Trump. Although, new applications for it are no longer accepted.
The Trump administration has been trying to limit immigration to the US for over a year and says it is fighting illegal flows of migrants. ISEs organize raids in cities accompanied by clashes and violence.
ISE officials say they only detain illegal immigrants and criminals. For the year of ISE, for messages, made about 400,000 arrests.
Critics of Trump’s migration policy claim human rights violations when people who have not broken the law and have the right to be in the United States are detained, beaten and deported.
It seems that Ukrainians also came under the crosshairs of this migration struggle. Although, back in July 2025, Trump declaredthat Ukrainians can stay in the US until the end of the war.
According to experts’ estimates, about 200,000 Ukrainian refugees in the United States are currently in a vulnerable position, when they can be expelled from the country at any moment.
There is information about at least several dozen Ukrainian refugees detained by ISE and death one citizen of Ukraine in the ISE prison in Miami.
Ukrainians interviewed by BBC News Ukraine say that they are being detained and deported in America despite the fact that they have a humanitarian status.
There are also complaints about delays in the preparation of documents. People have been waiting months for a decision on their status without the right to work.
More at the link.
Back to Ukraine.
Ukrainian law enforcement identified russian war criminal, major general in the lead of the terrorist strike against Kyiv children’s hospital Okhmatdyt on July 8, 2024. That is Sergey Kuvaldin who now holds the post of the head of russia’s long-range aviation.
Never forgive.
Never forget.— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 1:21 PM
OTD in 2014 i denied the masked, armed men in Crimea were Russian soldiers. I lied.
But you can believe me over a peace deal now
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:07 AM
It would’ve been cheaper to do something that mattered then. You didn’t. You are paying a higher price now.
Ukrainians are paying a much higher one.
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:07 AM
OTD in 2014 we denied we were going to annex Ukraine.
Then we denied we wanted more of Ukraine
Then we denied we wanted all of Ukraine
And now we deny we want more of Ukraine we denied we wanted.
— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 2:13 AM
The Birds of Magyar unit struck Russian Tor air defence system on the move while Russian servicemen were riding on top of it
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 8:23 AM
Mykolaiv:
In case anyone forgot: Russia is a terrorist state.
A Russian Shahed drone attacked a passenger train in Mykolaiv.
— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 9:07 AM
Russia struck a passenger train in Mykolaiv this morning with a drone 🤬 By now, firefighters have already brought the blaze under control.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 5:11 AM
Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast:
Three people were killed and 16 injured in a russian airstrike on a residential building in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, on 2 March.
The last victim was recovered from the rubble on the third day of search efforts.
Thirteen more residential buildings were damaged.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 11:32 AM
Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast:
Kostiantynivka. Russians are erasing another Donbas city off the map and ‘liberating’ its residents from their homes, apartments, jobs, and lives.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 12:32 PM
Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, a city russia could not forgive for breaking free from its occupation, so they consequently razed it to ruins and dust.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 12:39 PM
Poltava:
Russian drone flies over the city of Poltava today❗️
Just some meters above apartment buildings rooftops.— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 1:54 PM
Russia:
Putin has issued a decree setting the size of his army, including civilian personnel, at nearly two and a half million people, of whom one and a half million are military personnel.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Saratov Oblast, Russia:
Saratov in fascist Russia under heavy attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses active, at least 15 explosions, possible hit on oil refinery. Governor says three injured, power outages in some areas of city.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 5:31 PM
Kirov Oblast, Russia:
A chemical plant in Kirovo-Chepetsk, Kirov region, has been struck in a Ukrainian drone attack, 1,300 kilometers from Ukraine. #Ukraine
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) March 4, 2026 at 4:47 AM
Belgorod Oblast, Russia:
Lasar’s Group of the National Guard of Ukraine carried out an operation to locate and neutralize a S-400 “Triumph” air defense system in Belgorod region, in coordination with the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Brigade “Achilles” and the Joint Forces Grouping.
t.me/c/3533402781…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 9:13 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.
Here is some adjacent material.
The Ukrainian military helped us deliver to frontline towns in Kharkiv region too dangerous for the Hachiko team to visit. This woman sent us a video—the cats didn’t wait to eat, but look at how patient the dogs are! 🐕🇺🇦
— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 10:36 AM
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Those photos of the Arctic Metagaz are spectacular. Still trying to figure out how there were survivors.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: It is a good question.
Adam L Silverman
It has been a very long, very tiresome day. Like everyone else, I’m out of sorts from all the bullshit we’re being forced to live through. I’m going offline for a while. Everyone is welcome in advance.
Chetan R Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Denys Davydov -speculates- (he’s a pilot, so surely doesn’t have any subject matter expertise) that the bulkheads fore and aft of the compartment that exploded remained intact. Perhaps that’s why the ship remained afloat for a time after the explosion, and that allowed crew to evacuate.
Just speculation.
Timill
@Chetan R Murthy: That would certainly be consistent with the view of the ship, where a rectangular panel of the port side is missing.
The crew would presumably be aft and mostly below decks, which, with the ship remaining afloat for a period, would give them the opportunity to take to lifeboats/liferafts
I wonder what the starboard side looked like…
Chetan R Murthy
@Timill: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas#Environmental_concerns
In its liquid state, LNG is not explosive and can not ignite. For LNG to burn, it must first vaporize, then mix with air in the proper proportions (the flammable range is 5 percent to 15 percent), and then be ignited. In the case of a leak, LNG vaporizes rapidly, turning into a gas (methane plus trace gases), and mixing with air. If this mixture is within the flammable range, there is risk of ignition, which would create fire and thermal radiation hazards.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Timill
@Chetan R Murthy: Ah, yes. I should know that; my wife was a first responder at the Waverly TN BLEVE (long before we met).
Martin
Thank you Adam.
PJ
Thanks again, Adam, for all your work on these updates.
Westyny
Thanks, as always, Adam.
Fair Economist
It’s been clear for years that Ukraine would be an invaluable military partner. I don’t understand how so few of the EU member stayed have figured that out.
Chetan R Murthy
@Fair Economist: If YY_Sima is correct (and he makes a compelling case), the EU simply needs to have its nose rubbed in it, to start learning. Maybe … just maybe seeing this war in which Ukraine is uniquely skilled to prevail, and their military backstop, the mighty US of A fails, could start that learning process. Maybe.
Gretchen
Thank you for all the work you put in on this, Adam. We greatly appreciate it and hope that you are getting a good night’s rest.
Mathguy
Fourteen hundred and sixty nine reports, all for free, authored by an expert. I try to read at least the material above the fold every night. Thank you for all the work you’ve done.
Why is there always some a-hole that feels the need to be the turd in the punch bowl and try to ruin something like this?
M Hall
“Partners are turning to us, to Ukraine, for help with protection against “shaheds” – for expertise and for practical support. Requests on this matter have also come from the American side.”
If this is true, wouldn’t it be fun to respond to the US request with “Sure, we’d love to help, but—- we have no cards.” Of course it might not be so practical.
Thank You! Adam for this valuable service you are generously providing us.
way2blue
The two dogs—waiting for permission to eat, so attentive to their ‘caretaker’. Sweetness. I needed that today.
wjca
We’ve actually seen this sort of thing before. More than once. The case I remember is the “battleship admirals” — who refused to grasp the the aircraft carrier had basically made their battleships obsolete.
Nothing really new under the sun. At least when it comes to adapting to changes; or failing to.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Chetan R Murthy: here’s a link to What’s going on with shipping (h/t TPM) that mentions the LNG tanker. Hypothesis: LNG ignited and burned, melting the side of the tanker.
[ETA no doubt we have all seen the picture of the fireball, but the ship is mostly intact.]
Lyrebird
Thank you Adam for the updates on Ukraine and on the Georgia protests. and I will sing another mi shebeirach for your recuperating pupper on Friday. (Debbie Friedman version, the only one I fully know.)
@Gin & Tonic: I thought I’d read that the ship was burning for a while before the big boom, but I’m not sure. If you’re reading this, may I ask if musician & volunteer Ramil Elman Ogly Nasirov has a Slavic, a Crimean Tatar, combo, or other kind of name?
ETA: Anyhow, main point – looks like the day when NATO countries are hoping to join Ukraine is coming sooner than I thought.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
No One You Know
@Adam L Silverman: Offering a humble and heartfelt thanks for all that you do. Most of which I probably don’t know about. I grieve that you are pained upon by so many. I, myself, tenderness you in thanks for a small and oft- overlooked trageduly of a lost ship in the Great Lakes, capable mourned by a Canadian ballad. I regret that so many offer you so little in appreciation. I hope the noisiest that take you for granted learn to regret their discourtesies.
bad Jim
Thanks, Adam! This daily read helps keep me sane. Thanks as well to all the commenters.
pharniel
Perrun thinks Ukraine’s best bet to fund their government after the war ends is through their new military industrial complex.
Given what we’re seeing in the ME, there’s just no way to doubt that now.
The conflict in Ukraine is demonstrating just how transformative drones are, and how we’ve hit another Dreadnaught moment where the battlefield paradigm has changed in ways we’ll be feeling for decades.
YY_Sima Qian
There was some discussion yesterday wrt the obligations of submarines to rescue the survivors of ships they have sunk. Here is some historical context:
PrairieLogic
Thank you, Adam, for these past four long years of updates… much appreciated.
Kayla Rudbek
@pharniel: yes, war drives technology improvements (I think Heinlein may have said this first)
rikyrah
The absolute gall and utter audacity to ask President Zelensky for ANYTHING🙄🙄🙄
ExPatExDem
A question for Mr. Silverman.
I saw that the Kurds, the favorite US disposable ally in the region, were being roped in for the ground campaign against the Tehran regime.
How likely do you think this is to pull Turkiye into the conflict, and for them to occupy portions of Iran as a hedge against Kurdish separatists?
Traveller
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for the history lesson. It is always good to learn.
Secondly, I am in a bit of agony, (really!), over my…reluctant, temporary, provisional support of the US/Iran war…and thusly, willy-nilly, automatically, also a supporter of Mr. Trump.
The above is painful to write, but there it is.
In my difficult defense, Iran has been a thorn of sorts to me for all these past decades…to especially include the Iraq/Iran war from 1980 to 1988…such battlefield slaughter of human beings, young and old marching into the maws of killing machines.
I was, and remain, especially horrifically by Iran’s Basij Brigades marching with plastic keys to heaven around their necks into active minefields. (minefields are no place for any human, or animal I suppose, to go).
Of course, more recently there has been the subjugation and frequent murder of women by the, Regime, by the society. I have trouble looking away from this.
Since Mr Trump tore up the apparently successful JCPOA, I suppose this was inevitably where we were destined to be…attempting to change a society via civil war, maybe not much unlike the US Civil War, a necessity to end United States Slavery, (maybe as was necessary the Opium Wars in China, to end that truly odious English trade practice {unsuccessfully, I know, but still…}).
In case you couldn’t tell, I am in a muddle over this…US/Iran war, especially the girl’s school bombing…wish me luck. Traveller
cain
In a sad way, it’s good that Ukraine is being recognized for this particular expertise that the world now needs. I hope they get their patriot missiles. I hope the U.S. and Israel come to Ukraine hand in glove looking for their expertise that their very expensive weapons couldn’t stop.
BSChief
Thank you so much for making and keeping your promise to Cole. It means a lot to a lot of us.
ExPatExDem
@Traveller: So you’re a Neocon?
Nice.
exbarrowboy
@YY_Sima Qian: On the topic of the obligations, if any, of submarines to rescue survivors, I was in the UK for the duration of the Falklands war, which was the most recent case of a submarine attack on a surface vessel. HMS Conqueror torpedoed ARA General Belgrano (previously the USS Phoenix, a survivor of Pearl Harbor). The escort destroyers started dropping depth charges, though well off target. Eventually, after much confusion, the escort ships picked up most of the crew but hundreds of lives were lost.
My recollection is that the bulk of the people in the UK were supportive of the sinking as either just something that is part of war, or, for the more belligerent, FAFO. There was also a vocal minority that objected because at the time of the sinking the Belgrano had been heading away from the main conflict zone, something that had changed since the earlier permission to engage. I think though that all sides in the UK debate recognized that there was a moral issue about what was proportionate in wartime. The apparent non-recognition of this wrt to the sinking of the Dena by the US is troubling.
Tee
Adam, thank you for the updates and information. I know in previous updates you mentioned programs to help support the Ukrainian drone makers. Some of my older fosters want to do something to show their support for Ukraine. Any recommendations? The younger kids are focused more on helping locally during lent but my teens are looking more globally. Thanks again for helping Me to understand some of what’s going on and then sharing what can with my kids. peace and blessings to you.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Adam L Silverman: I am so sorry that you’re still getting flack for simply presenting the facts, even if other people don’t want to hear them. Especially if they’re unpleasant news. That’s my POV anyway. You would think members of a “progressive ” blog would know better. GRRR.
YY_Sima Qian
@exbarrowboy: I had in fact looked up the Belgrano sinking before posting that comment. At least Belgrano was skirting the edge of the UK declared exclusion zone. The Dena wasn’t anywhere near the war zone, & was likely hoping to stay out of the fighting (knowing that it would be suicidal).
The Trump DOD published videos of the sinking as war porn.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@M Hall: You take the words right out of my mind. I would love to see Zelensky and Ukraine grind the American’s nose into how badly they have been treated and demand concessions in return for their help and expertise. Like you, I doubt it will happen. But the schadenfreude would be delicious 😋.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Mathguy: IKR?
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Peleus War Crime Trials,
Jay
@ExPatExDem: Kurds say, like Spain, “nope, the US Admin is just shit talking out their asses”.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for this. I don’t know enough about naval matters, let alone submarines as I would like, but I was sure there was a law governing how submariners were supposed to treat surviving crew members from a ship they sank.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@rikyrah: Oh yes! So very, very true. I hope Ukraine drives an extremely hard bargain with the USA. It’s the least they deserve. Of course, it probably won’t happen, Ukraine is too smart to return fire. But it’s a lovely thought.
ExPatExDem
@Jay: Interesting
ETA: I did see that the Kurds basically told Reza Pahlavi fuck off, we don’t want you.
That made me laugh.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam. For everything, especially your patience and generosity.
daveNYC
I would be surprised if the Kurds decided to take up arms. Like they’d need to think that the USA wouldn’t leave them hanging three (four?) times in a row. Plus, unless Iran absolutely disintegrates, they would eventually end up with the army on their doorstep, which would end poorly.
YY_Sima Qian
I don’t think what to say to this. Probably the future of warfare. The PLA is surely working on, if not deploying, similar capabilities. The Israelis didn’t bother much w/ human supervision or due diligence when using “AI” generated target lists during their war of vengeance on Gaza, I am not confident the US or Israel is doing more in Iran. (gift link to WaPo article below)
Noskilz
It would be very interesting if the Gulf states were to take up Zelensky on his offer.
Professor Bigfoot
I have but one demand to put on you, sir: take care of yourself!
you are deeply and greatly appreciated
patrick II
@Traveller:
Not surprisingly, Zelensky and Ukrainians generally seem to be all for war with Iran.
The Pale Scot
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, stop doing this laddie, just stop for bloody sake what? its been 4 fucking years? just fucking stop already and take care of your self plz
The Pale Scot
@way2blue:
There’s video online of Ukraine pups standing in to wait for food /water?
Chris
@Traveller:
So here’s my thing:
We’re not trying to change the regime.
If we were, I might actually say godspeed, even if it meant that muppet Pahlavi took over, because there’s no denying the regime has been in a full-on masks-off meltdown since months before the bombing started, to the tune of thirty thousand people plus, and it wasn’t much to look at to begin with.
But that’s not what we’re after. Trump’s come right out on television to say that, haha, yeah, we were actually really hoping to deal with Khamenei’s successors, but we were so efficient we killed most of them! Wars, what can you do, amirite? He’s not trying to overthrow the regime. He’s trying to take a victory lap and give it its blessing as soon as he’s found someone in it who’ll make a proper show of bending the knee. As some people on the Internet have said, this is a mob boss knocking off another mob boss to take over his operation.
And the way I know this, even if he hadn’t said it on national television, is that it’s exactly what he did in Venezuela not three months ago. Another shitty regime’s leader was taken out; his deputy got a promotion and announced he was going to make some deals with American oil companies; Trump declared victory, blessed the new guy, and forgot all about it. A whole bunch of exiles in Miami were left looking really stupid, and the situation of the people in Venezuela hasn’t changed at all.
Nothing good will come of this.
Chris
@Jay:
@ExPatExDem:
I actually hadn’t heard that, either saying no to Trump or saying no to Pahlavi. Says a lot about how far gone you are when you can’t even count on the Kurds.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Reza Pahlavi has already been Machadoed by Trump.
YY_Sima Qian
Wrong thread.
xjmuellerlurks
“The Ukrainians aren’t just doing this to generate good will with the deep pocketed Gulf states or to get more PAC-3 interceptors for their Patriot batteries, though those are themselves worthwhile objectives, it is to do a real time sales expo for their military technology.”
These guys are really smart and hardworking. This might also reduce the amount of influence that Russian money has in the Gulf. Ukraine was an engine of prosperity for the Russian empire and the Soviet Union. I understand why Russia fears them and wants to control them. What I don’t understand is why our government doesn’t see this and support them. I know DJT is a greedy POS, but the Biden administration was hesitant in it’s support.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: Nuance from a former USN nuclear submarine captain:
Click through the X link for the relevant photos.
Jayne
Adam, you’re one of the only reasons I still come here, so thank you. I hope that if you ever take this show on the road, you’ll leave a bread crumb trail so I can find you.
Miss Bianca
@Traveller: I wish you luck escaping from the mental maze that has somehow led you to the conclusion that just because Iran’s a bad actor, that the US is justified in becoming an Even Worse Actor by starting a pre-emptive war against them.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Adam, you have my everlasting thanks and best wishes.
wjca
A fervent amen to that!
Meanwhile: Illegitimatai non carbonundum — don’t let the bastards wear you down.
Traveller
@Miss Bianca: Not to be aggressive in my response, but how many women do I have to see murdered Iran over the years to become an abolitionist and wish for a civil war to wash away the entire social structure for something new?
I am well happy to be out of Afghanistan, but of late matters for women have gotten unbelievably worse, Taliban are sending suicide bombers into Pakistan who in turn over the past week have begun bombing Kabul and Kandahar.
Music is completely banded and all Afghani’s are ordered to turn over musical instruments to be destroyed. Seeing bonfires of musical instruments breaks my heart.
I mean all of this unbelievable, but, as a general rule, I suppose it might fairly be said that I oppose all theocratic regimes, which would reach back in time to the Catholic Church, its iconoclastic and inquisition periods to the Khmer Rouge where, nothing could be odder than sitting in a Buddhist Monastery, realizing that for all the peace and beatitudes flowing through the prayer room…looking around, there is a certainty that some of the congregants were participants to the Killing Fields.
It is a strange world that weighs at times. Best Wishes, Traveller
Traveller
@YY_Sima Qian:
Thank you for the X link…I will stop making that argument, (I am not beyond being educated).
Further, a naval person has written to me:
The IRIS Dena was only ~1500 tons. I assume because she was carrying 4 × SSMs C-802 / Noor surface to surface missiles, she was considered a threat. (These are Chinese designed and likely built missiles)
Her SSM, with a ~200km range, could pose a threat to ships in a carrier group (if she proceeded east toward Iran), and hence that could be why she was attacked and sank.
War must make me edgy, thanks again, Traveller
Lobo
First: Thanks! Second, a question: Does this almost qualify as a virtual world war given the number of nations involved and their ties? Off the top of my nose I have the following: America, Israel, Lebanon, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Dubai, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Iraq, …
Thanks again?
Chetan Murthy
Traveller, you’ve been a respected commenter here for a long time, so please take this with the kindness in which it is offered.
I also have big problems with the Iranian regime, and have felt that way for a long time, and for more than one reason. Once upon a time, I was offered an “overseas assignment” by my employer to China: I responded that I would not accept an overseas assignment to any of America’s geopolitical adversaries, and listed Russia, China, and Iran as examples. And that doesn’t get into the odious nature of the regime to its own citizens. But there’s some things that I try to remember:
(1) Chaos is not a friend of democratizing, nor of women and children. Instead, it is a golden opportunity for hard men who want to take power. It produces gangsterism and warlords. You write about those Basijis, and I would note that they’re still there, in large numbers, and they have all the guns.
(2) From what I remember, there is a good bit of work by historians that shows that what works to restore democracy, is pretty much the rise of a robust middle class that demands the rule of law. Yes, it’s slow, and unsatisfying. But it’s what works. The JCPOA was a start, and yeah, Trump ripped it up.
I know it’s appealing to imagine that we can flip over the table and somehow things will be better. I would remind you of the meme ( x.com/sillyalexnorris/status/817517238328709120 ) about this.
And none of the above includes that -we- shouldn’t engage in unprovoked aggressive war, nor that in doing so he’s taking a massive gamble that could turn out very, very badly for the entire West ( per William Spaniel youtube.com/watch?v=wupwKXGd54g ). You’re old enough that you remember Desert Storm, and how Poppy Bush lined up basically the entire Western world and all America’s allies in the Gulf, to confront Saddam Hussein. Trump has done nothing of the kind, and indeed he didn’t even get his supply lines, his stocks of missiles, really -anything- (not even contingencies for getting US citizens out of harm’s way) in order. So even if you believed that this war was necessary, maybe you shouldn’t believe that Trump is the one to wage it, b/c he’s just -incompetent-.
PaulWartenberg
Adam, hate to be a bother, but you’re the go-to guy regarding all this info, and I wanna thank you for it, but I wanna follow up on research into the
So if you know of any recent reports / papers on that problem can you share those links please?
Again, thanks.
Paul in KY
@Chris: He’s just trying to keep ‘Epstein’ off the front pages. By any means necessary.
Paul in KY
@Traveller: Shia Islam will only disappear there if all the people are dead.
Anonymous At Work
For tonight: If he were the type, I’d think Zelensky should prepare a speech about how Trump and Hegseth approached him, hats in hand, tears in their eyes, pleading, “Sir, please sir, you have got to help us as only you can, sir.” He’s not; he’s a better person.
But darned if Russia didn’t make an OPEC decision about oil production more complicated by introducing “And how much does it absolutely hose Putin?” part of the discussion.
Chris
@Traveller:
But again. How do you think this is going to lead to that? So far Trump doesn’t do regime change. Everything you hate about Iran is stuff he wants to see continue, just under some Council Guardian or Pasdaran general who’ll offer him tithes.
Afghanistan wasn’t quite the same but it illustrates a similar problem: in twenty years, nobody with any meaningful amount of power over the occupation gave a flying fuck about building an actual democracy. There were plenty of people doing good in the micro, but nobody in the macro. Let’s face it: if the instant you leave the country it reverts right to what it was twenty years ago when you walked in, you didn’t do any serious work at all.
I completely understand the impulse, but we are not doing anything with the victims of these regimes in mind. Truthfully we haven’t in decades, and with Trump they’re largely not even bothering to pretend anymore.
Chris
@Chetan Murthy:
It’s probably too much to link the JCPOA with a robust middle class that demands the rule of law (unless I’m misreading you there). Iran has a pretty significant middle class and has for a long time; they’ve been the ones most consistently demanding democracy. It just unfortunately has a lot of other people who don’t want that, and they’ve got the entire apparatus of government behind them.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed for them, but under no illusion that Trump’s going to do anything for them.
Miss Bianca
@Traveller: The US just flat-out murdered a bunch of young Iranian women – girls, really – in an indiscriminate bombing apparently dictated by AI relying on outdated security information.
We’re likely going to end up killing hundreds, if not thousands, more.
So again, I say: you seem to be badly confused if you imagine that there’s any way to spin US aggression against Iran in any way that comes up looking positive.
Traveller
Part of the problem now, “is Now.”
The Arrow of Time moves in but one direction….Prior to this sneak attack, (see quasi-Pearl Harbor, but by the US), my position and years of counsel has been that it would be insane to attack country of 92 million people.
Yet, once it has started….the United States, myself, the Gulf States and much of Europe find themselves in in a box…maybe not of our own making….but a box it is.
How does one carve, geopolitically from here, a Future?
I don’t believe that this Kinetic War can be stopped or reversed on a dime…
Chris makes a good point about Shia Islam, as your points are good also…
But Now, what to do with Now, that is the question…Best Wishes, Traveller
jame
Adam, I am but a humble lurker, but I absolutely depend on you as a trusted source of information about Ukraine and Georgia. Your thoroughness and professionalism are evident in every one of your posts. I’m devastated to hear that there are some posters making demands demands. Good lord, your posts answer any questions I have, and some I hadn’t thought of. Thank you for your vital coverage of Ukraine, and for providing information I couldn’t find anywhere else, all in one location.
Chetan Murthy
I’m sure you remember when the warlords we supported were getting themselves “dancing boys” (preteen sex slaves); one of the reasons the Taliban were popular, is that they outlawed that shit.
Re: the JCPOA and a robust middle class, I -am- linking it, but only in the long-term, not any short-term. And that’s really my point: somehow we’re expecting that we can snap our fingers and good things will happen, when it never works that way.
Chetan Murthy
I think there are -two- answers:
(1) what -should- we do? We should end the war (or at least, our participation, and if necessary, cut off Israel so they understand they’re going it -alone, completely alone-) and serve up Trump and his lieutenants to The Hague for trial.
But that’s never going to happen.
(2) what -can- we do? We can refuse to support this abomination. What the US does, it will do, but we can refuse to support it in any way, shape, or form. In that vein, the Dems who vote for funding the military are -complicit-. “we gotta support Da Troopz!” Right. Right.
Nothing good can come of us supporting this abomination, unless one believes in the vanishingly small chance that somehow Iran will emerge as a democracy. Which ….. well, I’m not in the mood for buying bridges.
Chris
@Chetan Murthy:
I was gonna bring that up, but decided not to make the post even longer. But, yes: the thing with “but what do we do about the women” is that you can just as easily flip it into a reason to support the Taliban: “but what about the epidemic of child rape among our friendly warlords and the upper classes of the country in general, which the Taliban are, at least officially, denouncing and trying to put an end to?” Heck, our “allies” were literally that country’s Epstein Class.
Re your second paragraph… I’ve been saying for 25 years that our very first phone call on September 12th should have been to Iran, looking to put an end to our conflict and acknowledging that we had mutual enemies to work against. Among other things, we’d now have an entire generation of Iranians, with another well on the way, who grew up never knowing the paranoia of “we live on the brink of war with the most powerful societies in the world.” Failing that, JCPOA was an attempted beginning towards that, but of course, we can’t have nice things.
Chris
@Chetan Murthy:
The likeliest way for Iran to become a democracy right now, as in most of those situations, is for a critical mass of the troops repressing popular uprisings to abandon their posts and support the uprising.
Which… As I recall from when I was studying this, the problem with Iran is that it’s comprehensively corrupt, but in a way that actually stabilizes the regime. Instead of a Tunisia like situation where everything leads back to one Sauron-figure at the top that everyone resents, you have a giant racket where a ton of people get to wet their beaks, none more than the Pasdaran who are the regime’s shock troops and control the Basij stormtroopers. They don’t want to turn on the regime; they’re doing too well out of it. And the extraordinary death count these people have been willing to inflict recently certainly supports that.
I’m not qualified to judge whether a U.S. government run by a relatively sane leadership could make the difference and tip the scales against the regime. But I can definitely say that it’s not what Trump is doing.