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Damn right I heard that as a threat.

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You are here: Home / Archives for Foreign Affairs / Israel

Israel

War for Ukraine Day 1,379: You May Not Be Interested In Putin’s World War, But Putin’s World War Is Definitely Interested in You

by Adam L Silverman|  December 4, 20259:19 pm| 53 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

The Russians targeted President Zelenskyy’s plane as it was on approach to Dublin.

Quite breathtaking story – military grade drones at Dublin airport which flew on the path Zelensky’s plane took. The drones reached the flight path of his plane exactly the time it should have been there, but just missed it because Zelensky arrived ahead of schedule:

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— Nicolai von Ondarza (@nvondarza.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 10:20 AM

The Irish Navy had a ship present, but ‘made the decision not to shoot down the drones’, though the article also notes it the vessel did not have the capacity to disable the drones.

A huge reminder that Irish neutrality does not protect it from hybrid attacks.

— Nicolai von Ondarza (@nvondarza.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 10:20 AM

From The Journal: (emphasis mine)

FOUR UNIDENTIFIED MILITARY-STYLE drones breached a no-fly zone and flew towards the flight path of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plane at sea near Dublin Airport late on Monday night, The Journal has learned.

The plane landed, slightly ahead of schedule, just moments before the incident happened at about 11pm. The drones reached the location where Zelenskyy’s plane was expected to be at the exact moment it had been due to pass.

The drones then orbited above an Irish Navy vessel that had secretly been deployed in the Irish Sea for the Zelenskyy visit. 

Sources have said that the drones took off from the north-east of Dublin, possibly near Howth, and flew for up to two hours. Enquiries are being carried out to determine whether the drones took off from land or from an undetected ship. 

It is not yet known who launched and controlled the drones or where the drones are now. 

Military-style drones are capable of a large range of functions. In this case, the fact that the drones had their lights on has led security forces to suspect that the aim was to disrupt the flight’s arrival into Dublin.

Garda Commissioner Justin Kelly was told about the incident in the early hours of Tuesday morning. It is understood that the Taoiseach and Ministers for Justice and Defence were also told in the hours after it happened. It is not known if Irish authorities briefed the Ukrainian president’s team.

The incident mirrors similar drone incursions in Europe in recent months which led to the closure of airports in Brussels and Denmark and caused significant security tensions.

Ireland’s security services have found that the drones in the Irish Sea were large, hugely expensive, of military specification, and that the incident could be classed as a hybrid attack.

Hybrid warfare is the use of military and non-military tactics, such as drone incursions, cyber attacks, sabotage and disinformation, to weaken or destabilise opponents without declaring a full-scale war. It is generally carried out by state-level military and intelligence services.

It is understood that the drones missed the approach of the Ukrainian leader’s plane and then turned their attention to the LÉ William Butler Yeats, the Irish naval vessel which was secretly deployed off Dublin. The drones operated within the 12 nautical mile limit of Irish-controlled waters.

A decision was made not to shoot down the drones, and there was no ability onboard the naval vessel to disable them. It is understood an Irish Air Corps aircraft was also patrolling at the time but did not get involved.

Irish forces had limited other options for dealing with the drones, which are technically known as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Handheld equipment purchased by An Garda Síochána could not be used to take down the drones as it was out of range. There was also no air defence capability save for the machine guns of the naval vessel. The LÉ Yeats has no air radar capability.

It is understood that deck look-outs who were working on the ship spotted the drones, which were lit up against the night sky. 

The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) had issued a drone no-fly zone over Dublin and surrounding areas for the duration of the president’s visit.

The drones are believed to have been quadcoptersas they were able to hover above the naval vessel. This type of drone has four propellers or rotors which allow it to stay in one position.

A high-level meeting between An Garda Sochána, the Irish Defence Forces and senior civil servants with responsibility for national security was called yesterday in Dublin to discuss the incident.

Zelenskyy’s visit to Dublin went off without any major hitches. However, his aircraft did use a specialist take off as it left Dublin Airport to limit exposure to any drone incidents.

More at the link.

We need to be really clear, this is NOT a hybrid attack. It is a direct attack with a military drones. If someone targets someone with a Shahed or a Reaper, it’s deliberate targeting with a weapon.

Yes, I know the reporting indicates it is unknown whose drones they were, but let’s be honest with ourselves about whose drones they were. Even if they wind up arresting a bunch of schmoes.

The EU, its member states, NATO, and its member states need to get their acts together. They are out of time.

Exhibit A:

Macron reportedly warned Zelenskyy US may ‘betray Ukraine on territory’

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— The Guardian (@theguardian.com) December 4, 2025 at 12:20 PM

From The Guardian:

Emmanuel Macron has reportedly warned Volodymyr Zelenskyy that “there is a chance that the US will betray Ukraine on territory, without clarity on security guarantees”, the German magazine Der Spiegel reported, quoting a leaked note from a recent call with several European leaders.

Der Spiegel said it had obtained an English summary of Monday’s call, featuring what it said were direct quotations from European heads of government in which they expressed fundamental doubts about Washington’s approach to the talks.

The French president described the current tense phase of the negotiations as harbouring “a big danger” for Ukraine’s embattled president, according to the summary. Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reportedly added that the Ukrainian leader needed to be “very careful”.

“They are playing games with both you and us,” Merz was reported as telling him – a remark the magazine concluded was a reference to a diplomatic mission to Moscow this week by President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

The magazine said other leaders also voiced their concerns, with Finland’s Alexander Stubb, who has bonded with Trump over golf, reportedly warning “we must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys”.

Even the Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte – who in public is very complimentary of Trump – reportedly said he agreed with Stubb “that we need to protect Volodymyr”.

Der Spiegel said it spoke with “several” participants of the call, who confirmed it took place, and two of them reportedly said the remarks were “accurately reproduced”.

A spokesperson for Zelenskyy declined to comment, as did Merz’s office, while the Élysée Palace contested the quotes attributed to Macron. Der Spiegel said Rutte’s office had declined to comment.

The magazine produced a report in German and separately published an English version, saying it contained original quotes from the summary note.

Now let’s see if they’ll do anything about all of this other than talk.

Here is what Russia has queued up for Ukraine tonight/this morning:

Launches of Russian/Iranian Shahed-type killer drones detected at 9 locations in fascist Russia, so it looks like the Kremlin may be planning a big attack. Two subs capable of firing a total of 12 Kalibr cruise missiles stationed in Azov Sea, so combined missile attack possible.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 3:34 PM

And Ukraine’s outgoing fires:

Monitoring channels report that more than 100 strike drones are flying to bomb Russia and the occupiers in the occupied territories. The map also shows the trajectory of a cruise missile, marked with a green arrow.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 4:11 PM

🦅 Drone threat in the Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Samara, Penza, Tambov, Volgograd regions, in the Kuban and in Crimea.

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 4:23 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Will Work as Constructively as Possible with All Partners to Ensure That Peace Is Achieved and That It Is a Dignified Peace – Address by the President

4 December 2025 – 21:30

I wish you health!

Today, Ukrainian representatives will continue their discussions in the United States with President Trump’s team. Our task now is to obtain full information about what was said in Russia and what other pretexts Putin has come up with to drag out the war and to pressure Ukraine – to pressure us, our independence. Ukraine is prepared for any possible developments, and of course we will work as constructively as possible with all our partners to ensure that peace is achieved – and that it is, after all, a dignified peace. Only a dignified peace provides real security, and we fully understand that this requires – and will continue to require – the support of our partners.

Today, I spoke with President of the European Council António Costa – I am grateful for his willingness to continue helping Ukraine. We exchanged assessments regarding diplomatic prospects and contacts with partners. António informed me about his conversations with leaders, and I shared the information our intelligence has obtained. We agreed to remain in constant contact.

Today, the President of Cyprus paid his first visit to Kyiv. And next year, starting in January, Cyprus will hold the Presidency of the European Union. For us, it is important that Cyprus’s Presidency becomes productive in terms of movement toward the European Union and in terms of all our relations. We believe – and we build our communication with everyone in Europe, and also with the United States, on this basis – that Ukraine’s accession to the European Union is part of the security guarantees for our state and for our people. Overall, detailed work continues on the entire architecture of the security guarantees we need. These include military, economic, and political components. And next week, there will also be meetings and contacts on this matter. There is a great deal of internal work under way.

I have scheduled a Staff meeting for tomorrow – and among the issues will be a new, more rational distribution of personnel among the units, so that the brigades can feel more confident. This is being discussed in every combat brigade – we are preparing a decision. Today, I also held additional meetings with the candidates for the position of the new Head of the Office of the President – we discussed the formats of the Office’s work and the interaction with other state institutions that is necessary for Ukraine’s interests. A decision regarding the new Head of the Office will be made in the near future.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also met with and congratulated Ukrainian missile and artillery forces today.

The President Congratulated the Warriors of Missile and Artillery Forces on Their Professional Holiday

4 December 2025 – 12:49

On the occasion of the Day of Missile and Artillery Forces, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with servicemembers, congratulated them on their professional holiday, and presented them with state awards – the Orders of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, I–III class, and the Orders “For Courage,” II and III class.

The Head of State noted that today is the day to honor one of the strongest branches of our defense forces. Ukrainian howitzers, rocket artillery, artillery reconnaissance, anti-tank units, mortar personnel, and all missile units have proven their skill and exemplary heroism over the years of full-scale war. According to the President, Ukrainian warriors find ways to be at least on par with the enemy, even when the adversary holds a firepower advantage.

“Ukrainian artillery and our missiles haven’t had unreachable targets on the battlefield for a long time now, and increasingly hit the occupier deep in his rear – on his own territory. And the range of our operations continues to grow. Russian logistics, Russian bases, Russian oil terminals – all of these have felt what Ukrainian missiles are, what your strength is. And if Russia continues the war, our missiles will inevitably reach even more distant Russian targets,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized.

The President expressed particular gratitude to commanders and warriors from all units who strive to properly integrate the use of drones and artillery, long-range drones, and missiles.

“It is precisely the integration of these weapons into a single fire system that often delivers the results we need. And although, of course, drones will continue to develop as quickly and on as large a scale as now, this does not mean the time of missiles and artillery has passed. We must use everything that helps our warriors, everything that achieves combat results. This is exactly how we act and will continue to act,” the Head of State said.

The President stressed that we must always remember the Ukrainian warriors who gave their lives defending Ukraine. Their memory was honored with a minute of silence.

Finally, he held a joint presser with the President of Cyprus. Here’s the English transcript of his prepared statement followed by the video.

Statement by the President of Ukraine During a Joint Press Conference with the President of Cyprus

4 December 2025 – 15:42

Dear Mr. President, dear Nikos!

Ladies and gentlemen, our teams, and all present!

Dear journalists!

Today, I am glad to welcome the President of Cyprus to Ukraine on his first visit. And it is significant that this visit comes shortly before Cyprus assumes the EU Presidency, beginning in January. We see today’s visit both as a sign of support for Ukraine and as a signal of our shared readiness to continue working together – for the benefit of both our states and all of Europe. Today, I briefed the President on the situation in Ukraine – the situation on the frontline, our priorities, and our team’s work in negotiations with our partners. We held a very detailed discussion of our shared European agenda. Europe is now shaping a new global role for itself – all the events that have been taking place for almost four years now show that Europe’s role must be truly strong. This depends on every nation and every leader. Ukraine has given Europe a significant unifying momentum, and this energy works to strengthen Europe. This will continue. We also expect the European community to stand with Ukraine as needed to achieve peace and guarantee reliable security.

I want to thank Cyprus for its support at the political level, including with regard to the negotiations on Ukraine’s EU membership. We expect the coming months to bring more progress in Ukraine’s path toward the European Union, and Cyprus’s Presidency can become historical in terms of opening clusters for Ukraine and enabling other necessary decisions. I also want to thank Cyprus for supporting the sanction policy against Russia, against its aggression, for this war, and for all the destruction caused by it.

Leaders of the European Union are currently preparing a new sanctions package, and we want to make it truly effective. And this means continued pressure on Russia’s energy sector, first and foremost, and on everything else that provides Russia with budget revenues, and therefore the means to prolong this war. We will be grateful to Cyprus for its continued cooperation with us and all Europeans on issues concerning the Russian tanker fleet and Russian schemes to circumvent sanctions. We count on Cyprus’s support for joint European decisions regarding Russian assets. It is an absolutely just principle that Russia must pay for the war it started itself and continues. The funds needed for defense and recovery after Russian strikes should absolutely rightly come from the amounts the aggressor has left itself in the hands of the free world.

One more point: yesterday at the UN General Assembly, a resolution was supported regarding Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. Cyprus was among the countries whose voice advocated for the need to return all our abducted Ukrainian children. I want to thank Cyprus for this. We thank the people of Cyprus for their support and expect that Cyprus will continue to participate in such work of ours – in resolving humanitarian issues. Russia has been holding Ukrainians in captivity since 2014 – holding both military personnel and civilians, including many political prisoners who lived in occupied Crimea. Thousands of Ukrainian children are now scattered across Russia, where they are being indoctrinated, unfortunately, with hatred toward us – toward their homeland, toward their native home. Ukraine needs global support to address this. I want to thank Cyprus for standing with Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 372 of uninterrupted protests in Georgia. ✅

In the next two days, we have two rallies addressing GD’s use of toxic chemical agents during last year’s crackdown, following BBC’s new investigation.

🎥 Netgazeti

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 3:03 PM

Thank you, @BBCWorld, for playing such a crucial role in uncovering the very likely chemical attack against peaceful protesters in Georgia. 🇬🇧

📷 Publika

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 7:50 AM

“Fighting until the end.”
A drawing by Georgian political prisoner Lasha Ivanadze. He was arrested for participating in the October 4 rally. According to his lawyer, the only ‘evidence’ in his case is a TV broadcast of him peacefully standing there.

📷 Via Batumelebi

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 12:11 AM

Israel:

The first memorial to the victims of the Holodomor in Ukraine has been unveiled in Israel, — Embassy of Ukraine in Israel.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 10:50 AM

The Czech Republic:

Prague’s message is solid tonight: #makerussiapay! Kudos to Volt Česko, Občanský rozcestník and partners. Other cities will follow soon. @icuv.bsky.social
Photo: Tomáš Kozel.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 3:10 PM

Belgium:

In his alleged crusade to ‘defend the rule of law,’ Belgian PM Bart De Wever fully slipped into pro-russia mode:

“It is not even desirable for [russia] to lose and for instability to take hold in a country w/ nuclear weapons.”

Full impunity for any state that has nukes!

FFS.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 9:28 AM

This was the position of Biden’s senior natsec team. Which is why they did just enough to ensure that Ukraine wouldn’t lose, but could not win!

Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR):

⚔️ NATO military commander, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, said the alliance must be ready to respond to growing hybrid threats aimed at destabilising member states, – Reuters

Grynkewich said some recent incidents were reckless, others deliberate, and that Russia was behind several of them.

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— Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 12:53 PM

These tactics — including cyberattacks, disinformation, infrastructure sabotage, drones and irregular forces — are increasing across Europe, he warned during a briefing at NATO’s military headquarters in Belgium.

— Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 12:53 PM

The Grynch speaks!!!!

The US:

Basically, yep 👇

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 10:24 AM

From The Times: (emphasis mine)

Weeks of negotiations and diplomacy, rewritten peace deals and a visit by President Trump’s negotiating team to the Kremlin have failed to bring closer the end of the war in Ukraine.

As a private jet carrying Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, flew out of Vnukovo airport in Moscow in the early hours of Wednesday, it became clear that Washington had again overestimated President Putin’s willingness to back down from his goal of entirely subjugating Ukraine.

With no further talks scheduled, the war is likely to grind on towards the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February. Indeed, the only tangible result of the latest US-led peace efforts has been to deepen the rift between Europe and Washington, a development that will have been observed with glee in Moscow.

“Putin is communicating that he’s offering Ukraine and the West a choice, not between different versions of peace, but between achieving the goals of the special military operation through military means or by complementing military action with talks that will mean fewer people will die,” Alexander Baunov, a Russian political analyst, wrote on social media.

“Putin is happy with the progress of the war. He changes into his military uniform three times a month and personally issues commands to generals … While the war was less successful, he didn’t visually associate himself with it so intensely.”

When a 28-point peace plan emerged last month after talks in Florida between Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, a senior Russian negotiator, there was alarm in Kyiv and among its European allies that Washington was attempting to strongarm Ukraine into a deal that would require it to surrender land it still controlled, agree to a ban on joining Nato and allow Moscow to place limits on the size of its armed forces.

After frantic diplomacy involving British, French and German officials, the deal was reworked to make it more acceptable to Kyiv. However, any deal that is palatable to Ukraine will automatically be rejected by Russia, as was proved in Moscow on Tuesday.

“The contradiction between Ukraine’s goal of surviving as a sovereign democracy and Russia’s goal of imperial domination will never be resolved,” Michael Carpenter, the senior director for Europe at the US national security council under President Biden, told the Kyiv Post. “The only factor that will change this situation is if one side or the other suffers economic or military collapse.”

Despite military casualties that are unprecedented since the Second World War and growing economic problems, Putin is confident that “Russia still has the financial, human and psychological resources” to keep fighting, wrote Andrei Kolesnikov, a columnist at Novaya Gazeta, a Russian opposition website.

He added: “From the Kremlin’s point of view, the nation’s ability to adapt … is limitless. People will endure, tighten their belts and pay higher taxes for the sake of ‘achieving the goals of the special military operation’. And when, or if, those goals are achieved, they will go on surviving for years amid an ‘existential’ hybrid Cold War with the West.”

Even though Putin had said only that the original US-endorsed proposal could serve as the foundation for an agreement to end the war, he was clearly furious at European leaders after they helped to rewrite it.

“We are not planning to go to war with Europe,” he said. “But if Europe wants to and starts, we are ready right now.” He also issued another thinly veiled threat of nuclear war. “If Europe suddenly decides to start a war, a situation could very quickly arise in which we’ll have no one to negotiate with,” he said.

“[Putin’s] fear of Trump and the United States has almost evaporated,” said Alexander Nevzorov, a journalist and former Russian MP who fled to Ukraine in 2022.

“The Russians’ main and only bet is on the West’s softness and indecisiveness. Now they’ve discovered that all of Trump’s bombast is as much of a sham as [President] Macron’s posturing.”

As if to underline Moscow’s stance, Dmitriev chose to wear a coat decorated with a quote from Putin when he showed Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, around Moscow before Tuesday’s talks at the Kremlin. It read: “Russia is the kind of country that isn’t afraid of anything.”

More at the link.

I want to focus on this bit:

Indeed, the only tangible result of the latest US-led peace efforts has been to deepen the rift between Europe and Washington, a development that will have been observed with glee in Moscow.

This was Putin’s strategic objective and with the help of Trump, Witkoff, Vance, and Jared he has achieved it.

Back to Ukraine.

Every night Russian drones kill Ukrainians and they keep flying only because over 5,000 Western and Asian parts power them.
x.com/United24medi…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 12:40 PM

👀 A warhead from Shahed was installed on a Ukrainian ground drone, which will now be sent back to the Russians.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 4:46 PM

🔥 During November, operators of the 1st Operational Center of the SBS carried out 108 combat missions to destroy 88 enemy targets — SBS

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 4:40 PM

Kherson:

❗️For days, russian troops have been pounding the Kherson CHP plant with drones, artillery, and various weapons — a purely civilian facility that kept the city warm.

The plant has stopped operating.

Over 40,000 people — 470 buildings — are now without heat.

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 4:35 AM

A perinatal center in Kherson was attacked, local authorities report.

According to the regional military administration, no casualties were recorded among newborns, mothers, or medical staff.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 3:36 PM

Russians killed a 6‑year‑old child in Kherson, regional governor Prokudin reported.

The child was wounded during enemy shelling of the city’s Dnipro district.

Doctors fought desperately to save her life, but the injuries were far too severe.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 8:44 AM

Myrnohrad:

Russian forces have nearly encircled Myrnohrad. The town itself is a skeleton of its former self. Charred and ruined, it is now another ghost town in Ukraine.

All because of russian imperial ambitions.

Video by AP News

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 10:14 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Ukrainian military intelligence drones struck a Russian MiG‑29 at the Kacha airfield in Crimea, as well as the Irtysh airfield radar complex near Simferopol 👀🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM

Chernihiv:

Russian military bloggers claim that an offensive in the Chernihiv region is allegedly being prepared.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 11:17 AM

Pokrovsk:

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian units continue to hold the northern part of Pokrovsk and block Russian attempts to bypass Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk.
www.facebook.com/CinCAFofUkra…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 6:50 AM

Here’s the translation of Colonel-General Syrskyi’s statement on Facebook:

We are continuing the extremely difficult stage of the defense of the Pokrovsko-Myrnograd agglomeration. That is why I worked again with the commanders of the groupings of troops, commanders of corps, brigades, regiments and individual battalions. The battle continues. Ukrainian units continue to hold the northern part of Pokrovsko. In the area of ​​Pokrovsko and Myrnograd, we are actively blocking the enemy’s attempts to accumulate assault infantry groups and advance around these settlements. Our soldiers continue to hold certain areas directly in the cities. At a time when the occupiers do not pay attention to the loss of manpower, Ukrainian commanders have a clear understanding of the importance of preserving the lives and health of subordinate personnel. To this end, during a meeting with our commanders, we clarified the issues of coordinated use, ensuring the advancement and timely replacement of units conducting search and assault operations to detect and eliminate the enemy. To ensure the stability of defense, a number of decisions have been made regarding combat management, interaction, and comprehensive support of the forces and assets involved. In this context, the issues of organizing additional logistical routes, timely medical evacuation, as well as conducting counter-battery combat and countering enemy UAVs play a special role. We are holding the line. The fight continues. Glory to Ukraine!

Russia:

📉 Russian budget revenues from oil and gas fell by 34% in November 2025 compared to November 2024, — The Moscow Times.

In 11 months, Russia received 8 trillion rubles in energy revenues — 2.3 trillion less than in the same period last year. In late May it was 14%, in August — 20%, December – 22%.

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— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 2:05 PM

Samara Oblast, Russia:

Syzran oil refinery in russia is on fire 🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 7:04 PM

Syzran, oil refinery on fire 🔥

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 7:06 PM

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Something is getting sanctioned in Krasnodar Krai, Russia

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM

Temryuk … the gas terminal is on fire .. the boys are thrilled
#russianLosses
#UkraineNews

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— Baba Yaga Fèlla (@babayagafella.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 8:07 PM

Russian Temruk sea port area is burning as a result of the tonight’s attack.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 5:43 PM

Stavropol Krai, Russia:

Drones attacked the chemical plant “Nevinnomyssk Azot” in Russia’s Stavropol Krai. Local residents heard sirens and saw air-defense activity and flashes in the sky. The plant is considered one of the largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers and ammonia in Russia.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 5:17 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

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🇺🇦😺 He settled down on his throne and thought: “Sara Abramovna hung up the laundry, which means dinner will be ready soon. The window on the second floor is open—Izya is cleaning fish. And there’s that aunt walking by—I should meow politely, she might be carrying cutlets!”

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) December 2, 2025 at 2:41 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,379: You May Not Be Interested In Putin’s World War, But Putin’s World War Is Definitely Interested in YouPost + Comments (53)

War for Ukraine Day 1,327: Another Day Another War Crime

by Adam L Silverman|  October 13, 20259:09 pm| 21 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The Russians dropped a glide bomb on a hospital in Kharkiv about four or five hours ago. I’ll get to all of that, as well as the other genocidal war crimes after the jump.

One quick note on another matter: the twenty surviving hostages and, as far as I know the remains of the others who did not survive, have been exchanged for a large number of Palestinian prisoners. That’s basically where things are for Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza. My professional assessment is this is about as far as we’re going to get. I expect the Israelis to start dragging their feet and come up with an excuse to restart their war on Hamas, which is functionally an ethnic cleansing of the Gazan Palestinians bordering on/overlapping with a genocidal campaign in Gaza. There’s no reason now for Bibi to go beyond Phase 1. There are multiple reasons – keeping the most extreme members of his coalition (Ben-Gvir, Smoltrich, and their extremist constituents) happy so he can keep his tuchas out of court and potentially out of prison. This is not that Hamas doesn’t have agency, they do, and whatever they do will be used to justify whatever Bibi will do going forward. This is what Bibi did to every previous agreement, as well as in southern Lebanon.

President Zelenskyy met with Kaja Kallas, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, today, Here’s the video of their joint press conference.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address to the 71st annual session of the NATO parliamentary assembly. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Address by the President to the Participants of the 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly

13 October 2025 – 13:36

Thank you so much!

Ladies and gentlemen!

Thank you for your attention to Ukraine and for supporting our people and our country.

And let me praise Slovenia today – it is hosting the NATO Parliamentary Assembly now. Slovenia has supported us from the start of this war, like other free nations, and we value that. Robert, Mr. Prime Minister, thank you for your personal engagement. And Marcos, Mr. President of the Assembly, thank you for the invitation today and for your support.

First, a frontline update. This matters because our people have held back another wave of Russian attacks in Sumy and Donetsk regions. And that shows again – Russia cannot achieve its goals when our unity generates enough support.

Russia has failed many times to carry out Putin’s order to take Donbas. They keep delaying this senseless goal.

In summer, they told the United States of America and others they would achieve it in a few months – by October or November. Instead, it is our troops who are pushing forward now. Our results are possible because we no longer face the big shortages of regular weapons we had before. Some items are still missing, but we are working hard to ramp up our industry so it can supply more. I want to stress – we are steadily increasing production of our own weapons. More than 40% of the weapons on the front now are made in Ukraine. But every package of military aid from your countries still matters.

And please keep supporting us so we can keep the Russians on the back foot. The worse things are for Russia at the front, the greater the internal pressure on Putin to negotiate seriously.

Second point.

To cover up their failures on the ground, Russia has started a new wave of air terror against Ukraine – against our cities and civilian infrastructure. Their main targets are our energy systems. Every day, every night, Russian missiles and drones hit power plants and transmission lines. And this is a brutal attack on normal life, and it is dangerous. To defend against it, we need systems and missiles – air defense systems – we cannot fully produce in Ukraine. Yes, we have started making interceptor drones to stop “shaheds,” and we have mobile strike groups and aircraft. But Russian strikes are mixed and use many cruise and ballistic missiles. So the systems like Patriot, NASAMS, SapmT and others are absolutely vital. We are talking to everyone who can help with air defense systems and with missiles. Before winter, Putin hopes to use this terror to break our resistance. We must not let that happen.

So I urge you to advocate in your parliaments and governments for stronger air defenses and the missiles we need. And the decisions are needed in the coming weeks – on both systems and missiles. Russia must learn it cannot terrorize any country with impunity.

Yesterday, I spoke with President Trump for the second time in two days. We went through details — air defense, Patriot systems, Tomahawks, the energy equipment we need, and the need to stop partners buying Russian oil. Even if Hungarian guys claim it helps their election chances, in the long run, it undermines their country’s security and Europe’s – for Putin, every billion matters. You cannot be part of the free world and at the same time fund those who want to destroy it. We also discussed the PURL program. This program helps us buy American weapons, including missiles for Patriots, and it helps convince the U.S. administration that America’s alliance with Europe and other NATO partners matters. I thank the countries that have already joined this program PURL – the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Canada, the Baltic states, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Iceland. And I thank Slovenia as well for its decision to join. Thank you! It’s important that the pledged contributions arrive and are used quickly – they save lives. Some funds have not come yet. And we hope other Allies will join the PURL program – it will help.

Air terror is Putin’s last move. We must stop it. Deny him victories on the ground and in the sky – then real diplomacy becomes possible.

There are delegations from almost 50 countries here – from Europe, the whole Alliance, the Middle East, and others, other regions. This matters. We now see that the war in the Middle East is finally ending – after so many victims, there is a real chance for peace. It was difficult, but it is happening. Russia’s war in Europe remains the biggest source of global instability. And it depends on all of you whether this war will end too. Putin can be forced into peace – just like any other terrorist. Even Hamas is now preparing to release hostages. If that is possible, then Putin can also be forced to restore peace.

One more thing. Please do not ease sanctions on Russia – strengthen them.

Sanctions limit Russia’s war machine. We also need pressure on those in your countries who continue to supply critical components for Russian drones and missiles. No Russian missile or drone would fly without parts from other countries. This is not only China and Taiwan – some components still come from European countries, and from others around the world who still cooperate with Russia’s manufacturers of death. Our team can provide all the facts, and we are ready to share any information you need. Please take this up in your governments.

By stopping Russia now, you are not only helping us protect our lives – you are helping yourselves. And you spare your leaders from having to do what I do – appeal to the world for help if Russian drones, missiles, and soldiers become a threat to you. Russia must lose.

And on that basis, we must build a real system of guaranteed security – one that does not depend on shifting geopolitics or election moods. Dozens of countries are already part of this project – 35 countries in our Coalition of the Willing. Please support it at every level – in your parliaments, in your media, and through quiet diplomacy. Security must be guaranteed, and when it works for us, it will work for every country that needs protection.

Thank you.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

As protests in Georgia persist, Georgian Dream tightens the law:

Covering your face, blocking roads, or setting up protest structures can now mean 15–20 days in jail.
Repeat it within a year, and it’s a criminal offense — up to 1 year, or 2 years for multiple “offenses.”

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 1:35 PM

A REPEATED “offense” of covering one’s face during a protest, or closing the road, will result in a CRIMINAL imprisonment of up to 1 year.

The first-time “offense” is administrative detention for 15-20 days.

Protesting without a face cover is a USD 1,800 fine each time. 1/2

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 2:11 PM

Can you imagine just how much the Georgian Dream is uncomfortable with protests?

#GeorgiaProtests #TerrorinGeorgia 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 2:11 PM

JUST IN: The Georgian Dream prepares legislation to enable the Constitutional Court to bar persons from registering political parties, being members of political parties, running in elections, and holding official positions. 1/2

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 2:32 PM

This is in addition to their plans to outright ban all democratic parties as entities.

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 2:32 PM

So, top propaganda media was off for 45 minutes and the State Security is investigating it under the “sabotage” clause.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 4:05 PM

Ivanishvili is the most sophisticated Russian proxy dictatorship.

He said on April 29, 2024, that he was neither Shevardnadze (to step down over popular unrest), nor Yanukovych (to allow himself stupid mistakes that would get him toppled).

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 4:35 PM

The EU:

We must learn from Ukraine. Ukraine air defences take down 80% of targets.

Ukrainian drones stopped Russian advance on land and in the Black Sea, and devastated the Russian strategic bomber fleet. Ukraine shows besides tech we need integrated command & a new warfare ecosystem.

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— Andrius Kubilius (@andriuskubilius.ec.europa.eu) October 11, 2025 at 1:32 PM

The UK:

NEW: The British politician, his Russian intelligence handler & a Kremlin plot against the US & Ukraine.

My new piece about Nathan Gill and Nigel Farage for @thenerve_news in which we ask:

Why, even now, is no-one asking questions?

t.co/BUTtpK9C4S

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— Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla.bsky.social) October 12, 2025 at 7:29 AM

The man who bribed Gill – Oleh Voloshyn – is part of a much wider network of pro-Russian actors.

He worked with this guy, an FSB agent, who I’ve been fascinated by for years,

My investigation for @thenerve.news shows how Gill was a pawn in a Kremlin operation that spanned both Europe & US
2/

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— Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla.bsky.social) October 12, 2025 at 7:40 AM

From The Nerve:

Two weeks ago, Nathan Gill, an ex-MEP and former leader of Nigel Farage’s Reform party in Wales, pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery.

Gill has admitted to taking financial inducements to make speeches and statements that advanced Putin’s interests in Ukraine from Oleh Voloshyn, a man the US government describes as an “FSB pawn”. Gill will be sentenced in November.

On Friday, campaigning in Caerphilly, where Reform is hoping to win a seat in a Senedd (Welsh national assembly) byelection later this month, Farage was faced with an unusual scenario: uncomfortable questions. In response to BBC reporters, he said he was “shocked”. Gill was, as far as he knew, a “God-fearing Christian”.

The BBC’s report continues: “Asked if he knew about Gill making pro-Russian statements, Farage said: ‘I didn’t know anything about it.’”

To be fair to Farage, you can understand his confusion. Gill’s pro-Kremlin speeches are almost indistinguishable from those made by any number of other Ukip, Brexit party or now Reform politicians, including Nigel Farage. In the EU parliament in 2014, for example, Farage described Ukraine’s popular uprising against a pro-Russian government as “a coup d’etat”. And even after Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he was spouting off about the EU’s responsibility for “poking the Russian bear”.

There’s no suggestion that Farage has taken any money from Russian sources; the intention here is to point out that there has been a lack of journalistic curiosity about a longstanding ideological alignment between Reform / Ukip and Putin’s government. And this lack of media curiosity continues even now there is cold, hard evidence of a financial channel from the Kremlin to a British politician, Gill, all while the UK government has repeatedly refused to act on evidence of Russia’s years-long campaign to infiltrate and influence UK politics.

Even the most cursory review of the facts reveals that Gill was part of a much bigger network – one responsible for subverting and destabilising democracies on two continents. I came home late on the day that the news about the charges against Gill broke in February, and it was a matter of minutes’ online research at my kitchen table to see how intimately connected he was to Russian intelligence operations against the US government and across Europe.

At that point, Gill had been charged and reporting restrictions were in place. I posted one photo of Farage with Ukrainian politician Oleh Voloshyn’s wife online and left it at that.

Now, however, these facts can be reported. Facts about the man who was charged alongside Gill: Voloshyn, who Gill now admits paid him to make pro-Russian statements.

Voloshyn is not some small-time two-bit player. WhatsApp messages disclosed in court revealed Gill’s role in promoting a Ukraine “peace plan” advanced by one of Putin’s closest allies. Last week, Byline Times mapped these connections and Farage’s meetings with Voloshyn’s wife in the European parliament.

The Nerve can reveal that Voloshyn is also intimately connected to efforts to destabilise the US.

In 2022, the US government sanctioned Voloshyn. The charge sheet states that he “worked with Russian actors to undermine Ukrainian government officials and advocate on behalf of Russia”. But it then goes beyond that, stating: “Voloshyn also worked with … Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian national with ties to Russian intelligence who was sanctioned for attempts to influence the US 2020 presidential election, to coordinate passing on information to influence US elections at the behest of Russia.”

Since 2016, when I began investigating Russia’s links to key political figures in the US and UK, I have carried an entire Marvel-like universe of interconnected characters in my head. Yet it’s amazing how often some of them keep popping back up. Konstantin Kilimnik is one of those.

After sanctioning Kilimnik in 2021, the US government offered a $250,000 reward for information leading to his arrest. At that point he had returned to Moscow. And yet here he is again, in 2025. This time, two degrees of separation from my hometown, Cardiff, in Wales, in apparent ideological lockstep with the man now known to have bribed a British politician.

Because before he was an MEP, Nathan Gill was a member of the Senedd, the Welsh national assembly. In 2016, Ukip recorded an unexpected success in the elections, gaining seven seats. And I paid a visit to Cardiff to investigate how a political party rooted in English nationalism had made such dramatic inroads in Wales.

I tried to interview Gill, but he refused to talk to me. He ignored multiple emails. Just months later, I would embark on an investigation into Brexit, Trump and the data firm Cambridge Analytica. What I could never have predicted is that, nine years on, Gill and that story would crash directly into one other.

It’s hard to overstate Kilimnik’s importance in the various US investigations into Trump’s relationship to the Kremlin. This isn’t speculation: it’s all set down in a 2020 Senate Intelligence Committee report. That report details how the Trump campaign passed sensitive campaign polling data to a Russian intelligence agent: Konstantin Kilimnik. And the data? It came from Cambridge Analytica.

It was data that would have been a vital asset for any online influence campaign. In 2019, I took part in a panel talk in Los Angeles with Adam Schiff, the Democratic senator from California who was then chair of the House Intelligence Committee. He called the passing of data from the Trump campaign to Kilimnik the closest evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin.

More at the link.

Kilimnik was/is Paul Manafort’s handler.

The US:

NEWS: President Trump plans to welcome President Zelenskyy in Washington on Friday, three people familiar with the plans tell me. This comes after two phone calls between the presidents last weekend during which they discussed Tomahawk missile sales and how to end Russia’s war.

— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) October 13, 2025 at 10:06 AM

From The Financial Times:

US President Donald Trump will welcome his Ukrainian counterpart to Washington on Friday for talks about how they can force Russia’s Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, including through the possibility of supplying American-made Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv.

The meeting will be Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s third with the US president at the White House since Trump returned to office in January.

Trump and Zelenskyy held phone calls over the weekend, during which they discussed the possibility of Nato allies buying Tomahawk missiles for Kyiv — a long-range weapon that would extend Ukraine’s strike capability as far as Moscow and beyond — and how to bring an end to Russia’s full-scale war.

Tomahawk missiles have been atop Ukraine’s wish list of weapons since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Trump has said that he is considering selling an unspecified number of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine but that he needs to hear more about how Kyiv plans to use them, two people briefed on the president’s calls told the Financial Times.

Zelenskyy confirmed the upcoming meeting with Trump on Monday evening.

He said he shared with Trump a “vision” of how many Tomahawk missiles Ukraine would need.

A Ukrainian official said Kyiv believed Trump was closer than ever to supplying the missiles but cautioned that the US president was clear that he had not yet come to a decision.

Although Trump and Zelenskyy clashed badly in the Oval Office in February, relations between the two have improved markedly over the summer, as the US president has grown increasingly frustrated with Putin’s refusal to end the war in Ukraine.

People familiar with Trump’s discussions with Zelenskyy said that his about-face stems from growing frustration with Putin.

On Sunday, Trump told reporters the US might send Ukraine Tomahawk missiles if Putin did not come to a settlement.

“I might say: ‘Look, if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks’,” Trump said, adding he wanted to speak to Putin before deciding.

“The Tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon. And honestly, Russia does not need that.”

Putin has previously warned the US against providing Kyiv with Tomahawks, saying it would be a major escalation between Washington and Moscow.

If Trump decided to sell the weapons to Nato allies who would then give them to Ukraine, it would mark the most significant military support by the US president, and in stark contrast to his previous position.

More at the link.

I don’t expect anything to come out of this. The Trump administration hasn’t provided any military aid in months. Everything is either being purchased by EU member states and provided to Ukraine or being purchased by Ukraine for itself.

“We gave them nothing but we gave them respect”

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) October 12, 2025 at 11:44 PM

I miss announcements of new US aid packages to Ukraine.

— Dakota (@dakota.bsky.social) October 12, 2025 at 11:54 PM

Back to Ukraine.

Kharkiv:

Russia struck Kharkiv with 2 glide bombs a little earlier tonight. There are at least 3 injured people, a fire, and several areas of the city without electricity.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 4:07 PM

Tonight, russia struck Kharkiv with three aerial bombs, one of which hit the grounds of a hospital. Three districts of the city are partially without electricity.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 4:36 PM

Russia struck Kharkiv’s city hospital with a glide bomb

At least 4 people were injured by shards of glass

Many of the hospital’s patients are immobile. Police are helping with their evacuation. Imagine the terror of being bombed and unable to move, unable to protect yourself!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 5:46 PM

Murderous bastards

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 5:46 PM

At least six people were injured by flying glass after Russia struck the grounds of a hospital in Kharkiv. Around 10 p.m., Russian forces launched three guided aerial bombs at the city. One hit an outbuilding near the medical facility.

Windows and doors were blown out in the hospital wings,

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 6:03 PM

where over a hundred patients were being treated—many of them with diabetes. They were immediately moved from their wards to a shelter, according to Mayor Ihor Terekhov, who spoke from the scene.- Suspilne news reports.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 6:03 PM

This morning, russia attacked central Kharkiv with a drone, damaging a dormitory. The city’s Mayor says the drone’s type remains unidentified.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

A couple was killed in their car when a russian drone struck them as they drove through the Polohy district in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 5:54 AM

Chernihiv Oblast:

Russia killed one person and injured another in a drone strike on Chernihiv region.

Their drone hit a local store, sparking a fire.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 6:53 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Feodosiya this morning 🫠

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 5:13 AM

Feodosiya oil depot keeps burning after last night’s attack 🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 9:10 AM

Occupied Feodosiya is very warm this time of the year 🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 1:22 PM

From Hromadske:

Drones struck an oil depot in Russian-occupied Feodosia overnight, igniting a massive blaze, Russian-installed occupation leader of Crimea Sergei Aksyonov reported.

Aksyonov said there were no casualties from the attack and that air defenses downed 20 drones over Crimea.

The monitoring project Crimean Wind also reported a fire at the depot.

More at the link.

A double rainbow and a still-burning Russian oil depot in Feodosia

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 9:01 AM

The Pokrovsk front, Donetsk Oblast:

❗️/1. After a long pause, the Russians continue to send heavy columns of armored vehicles to assault the front.

Oct 13 — Dobropillia (Ocheretyne axis):
Russians launched another mechanized assault with 16 heavy armored vehicles ( on positions in the area of responsibility of Azov

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 1:44 PM

/2. Results of Ukraine’s defense:
• Destroyed/damaged: 9 IFVs, 4 APCs, 3 tanks, 3 motorcycles.
• Personnel losses: at least 78 Russians KIA.

Assaults moved toward Myrnohrad and Razine, main effort on Shakhove. Tactics: motorcycle groups in the first wave, then armor with infantry on board;

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 1:44 PM

/3. Thanks to pre-laid minefields and coordinated actions by Ukrainian artillery, National Guard units and UAV crews, the assault was repelled.

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 1:44 PM

Kherson Oblast:

Compilation of drone strikes on the Russian boats with infantry trying to cross Dnipro river, Kherson region.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 6:23 AM

The Zaporizhzhia front:

The situation of Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front. The house occupied by the Russian troops is on fire, but even in such critical moments, they don’t forget to record video reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 11:53 AM

Sumy Oblast:

Frontline roads in Ukraine’s Sumy region. The burned-out cars are the result of FPV drone attacks on fiber-optic lines, against which electronic-warfare systems don’t work.

The only effective way to counter them is shotgun shooters who constantly watch the sky.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 5:46 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Ukrainian dog and cat sharing a meal from the Hachiko team today. Displaced by war, but still so well behaved!

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) October 9, 2025 at 7:51 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,327: Another Day Another War CrimePost + Comments (21)

War for Ukraine Day 1,214: Ukraine’s Defense Continues Regardless of Where the World’s Attention Is at the Moment

by Adam L Silverman|  June 22, 20259:56 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Don’t forget: russia is waging a genocidal war against Ukraine.
Right now.
Still.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM

As the world focuses on the escalating war between Israel and Iran, the war in Ukraine has not paused. Russia continues its brutal campaign, targeting civilians. These images, taken and shared with us by volunteer Jana, show the aftermath of recent strikes in Pokrovsk area

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 8:24 PM

Which is why air raid alerts are up for all of north central Ukraine to eastern Ukraine at 3:40 AM local time/8:40 PM EDT and the air raid alert maps are indicating that Russian guided aerial bombs have been launched at Ukrainian targets in both Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.

We are expecting to be hit with 200-250 russian drones tonight. Over 90 are already in Ukrainian air space.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 3:59 PM

The cost:

Another similar horrific case of the Ukrainian defender dying less than a month after returning home. Valerii Zelenskyy from the Luhansk oblast spent three years in russian captivity. He couldn’t recover from the inhuman treatment there.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:29 AM

Before we continue, just a quick note regarding the ongoing strategic mess involving the US, Israel, and Iran. From statements made by Bibi, his Defense and Foreign Ministers, and other members of his extremist governing coalition, we know that Israel has two strategic objectives: 1) destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and 2) regime change. Neither of these can be accomplished by Israel. Neither of them can be accomplished by Airpower. Not even by US Airpower. Frankly, it is NOT possible by a combination of Airpower and Landpower. As I wrote in 2018, Iran is a human geography trap that would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a kid’s party. Israel has no ability to project its own Landpower into Iran. The land component of the IDF is exhausted. It is designed for no more than 90 days of continuous operation once the reserves are called up. It has now been operating for over twenty months in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. About a week or so ago another group of Israeli Air Force reservists resigned in protest of what Bibi and his extremist coalition government is doing. We know that the US is not good at undertaking the type of operations that would be required to undertake regime change through boots on the ground. We don’t have the bodies and I suspect that with the exception of the British, we wouldn’t be able to put together a multinational coalition to help this time.

As I’ve also written before, a proper translation of Long Dead Carl’s maxim is that “war is politics with other means.” Bibi has been trying to get the US to undertake regime change in the US since the early 1980s. And to go to war with Iran on his behalf because Iran is “a year away from having a nuclear weapon” since 1995. We’ve all seen the video clips and montages of Bibi making these statements in English. Sometimes before Congress. Bibi has a vision for the Middle East. One that can only be accomplished by politics with other means. And he would prefer that the bill be paid not in Israeli blood and treasure, but in America’s dearest currency. Hamas’s attack on 7 OCT 2023 combined with the extremist governing coalition he has built, Biden’s inability to realistically see and understand what Bibi was doing, and now Trump’s return to the presidency have provided Bibi with the opportunity he has long sought. An opportunity that he was taught by his father to believe is his destiny to seize. Bibi’s megalomaniacal belief that he is a world historic figure and the only legitimate leader of Israel and world Jewry is not an achievable strategic objective. It isn’t a strategic objective at all. Whether last night’s US strike on Iran is really a one off or more strikes will eventually happen, there’s no achievable strategic objectives for the US to achieve here or to help the Israelis achieve. There’s just more politics with other means.

Speaking of:

Zelenskyy: We have evidence Russians are preparing military operations in Europe.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 9:37 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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There Must Be No Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World – Address by the President

22 June 2025 – 22:45

Dear Ukrainians!

It was an eventful day. At this moment, rescue operations are still ongoing in Kramatorsk at the site of a Russian strike. Aerial bombs – right on the city, right on residential buildings. People were trapped under the rubble. All necessary emergency services were deployed. As of now, it is known that four people were injured – including a child. Tragically, four people were killed in this Russian attack. My condolences go out to all families and loved ones. I am also expecting a full report on the consequences and all circumstances of the Russian missile strike on a training ground in the south of Ukraine. This strike took place today. Unfortunately, it is not the first such attack. Tragically, there are killed and wounded. Full accountability is required.

Today, I had an extended conversation with Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko – in particular, about the protection of our positions on the front line and the use of our drones by the units of the National Guard of Ukraine. Today, I also spoke with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Everything must be set up in a systematic way so that Russian drones – Russian reconnaissance drones – are destroyed, and destroyed as swiftly as possible. This week, I will also speak separately with partners about additional funding for the production of interceptor drones. Interceptors, frontline drones, fiber-optic drones, and all types of drones used to strike targets on Russian territory must be funded in a way that delivers real impact. This will be ensured – and we’ve already secured preliminary agreements with some of our partners, particularly a number of European countries.

Today, Norway’s Minister of Defense visited Ukraine. A decision has been reached to invest $400 million in our production – new funding, primarily for drones. We are working together to create all the necessary conditions to produce air defense systems in Ukraine – jointly with partners, jointly with Norway. Steps in that direction are being taken. An office has already been opened in Ukraine by one of Europe’s largest defense companies – Norway’s largest, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. We are expediting all processes to the maximum extent. Today, I also received detailed reports from our intelligence services – the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and the Foreign Intelligence Service. First and foremost, they concerned Russia’s intentions and our defense against them. The key objective Moscow is pursuing is to undermine sanctions. They are using all available methods to bargain not only to prevent new sanctions from being imposed, but also to weaken existing ones. We understand how and whom they use in Europe and other parts of the world. We are countering these efforts. I thank everyone who advances the sanctions agenda, despite everything. Because this is the agenda that brings peace closer.

One more thing. Today, I received reports on the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region, following U.S. strikes on facilities linked to the Iranian regime’s nuclear program. A regime that has done so much to bail out Putin. Right now, new waves of “Shahed” drones are in the skies over Ukraine. We all clearly remember where Russia got such weapons. Iran’s decisions to support Russia have brought massive destruction and devastating human losses to our country, and to many others. This truly must stop. And it must absolutely not be reinforced with nuclear weapons. There must be no proliferation of nuclear weapons in the modern world. This must be emphasized. It is important that there is American resolve on this, the resolve of President Trump. It must also be stressed that diplomacy has to start working. Working everywhere: in the Middle East, in the Gulf region, and here in Europe – in Ukraine. If Putin spurns every peace proposal, including those from the United States, it’s hardly surprising that Tehran is also rebuffing them for now. But all of them must feel what real international solidarity means, and that any spread of terror is unacceptable. What is needed is real, lasting security – truly reliable security. Thank you to everyone helping bring it about. Thank you to everyone standing with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 207 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked once again. ✅

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM

Day 207 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked once again. ✅

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM

Two young women are hospitalized after a car deliberately ran over peaceful protesters this evening in Tbilisi.

Has happened quite a lot in Serbia but I don’t recall this in Georgia before.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM

Georgian activist Saba Baghdavadze was just released after serving 30 days in jail—for firing a firework into the sky. Hugging him is the sister of the judge who sentenced him. 🥹

🎥 Dodie Kharkheli

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:04 PM

Two young women are hospitalized after a car deliberately ran over peaceful protesters this evening in Tbilisi.

Has happened quite a lot in Serbia but I don’t recall this in Georgia before.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM

🇺🇸 This morning, Trump confirmed U.S. strikes on 3 key nuclear sites in Iran.

🇬🇪 GD’s illegitimate govt stays silent.

Last summer, PM Kobakhidze stood at Iran’s inauguration – as “Death to the U.S., Death to Israel” echoed – and also attended the ex-president’s funeral.

📌Video archive: TV Pirveli

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) June 22, 2025 at 6:01 AM

Germany:

German aid helps Ukraine develop hypersonic missile able to destroy Russian bunkers up to 300 km behind the front.

Germany’s €5 billion aid package funded the Hrim-2’s domestic development, which has a payload double that of the US-supplied ATACMS.
euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/23/f…

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:00 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

Here, as Ukraine ramps up its long-range strike capabilities, a breakthrough is taking shape, with German funding powering Ukraine’s first hypersonic missile launch. Backed by a five-billion-euro defense package, Ukraine’s Hrim-2 [thunder in Ukrainian] hypersonic missile is now entering serial production, marking a bold new chapter in Ukraine’s ability to hit deep behind Russian lines.

Ukraine has officially announced the development of its own domestically produced ballistic missile, the HRIM-2. After over a decade of delayed progress due to funding issues, the missile system is now entering serial production, accelerated by international military and financial support since the start of the full-scale war.

Notably, Germany has provided a new five-billion-euro defense package, which includes significant investments in the domestic production of Ukrainian long-range weapon systems, including the development and production of the new ballistic missile. This aid enabled the Ukrainians not only to develop the missile but also to initiate serial production of the Hrim-2 immediately after its development.

Notably, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also announced that they had already conducted a successful field test of the missile. Ukrainians shared footage of this strike, adding that it was used to destroy a Russian command post on the east bank of the Dnipro River delta. This means that the Hrim-2 system is combat-tested and fully operational, opening the possibility of an increased number of similar precision strikes against Russian military targets deep behind the frontline.

The Hrim-2 is launched from a specialized ground vehicle that fires it into the air using a solid propellant rocket engine, before following a set ballistic trajectory towards a stationary target. The Hrim-2 has an operational range of 300 kilometers and can reach speeds of up to Mach 5.2, or nearly 1.8 kilometers per second, making it a hypersonic missile.

The 400-kilogram warhead allows for the destruction of hardened bunkers, logistics hubs, airbases, and ammunition depots, especially because these are stationary targets that are easy to trace. The capability of Hrim-2 to carry a heavy warhead for strikes within a 300-kilometer range marks a major leap forward for the Ukrainian precision strike capabilities, as the warhead is twice as big as that of Atacms, which Ukrainians were previously dependent on for similar precision strikes.

Interestingly, these capabilities bring it comparably close to the Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, which have a similar payload of around 400 kilograms, while the Ukrainian Hrim-2 might soon catch up with or even exceed the Russians’ range of 400 kilometers as development continues.

The fact that it is launched from a mobile transport vehicle gives Ukrainians the ability to quickly move to a firing position, fire the missile hundreds of kilometers away from the frontline, and pull back before the Russians can strike back. Its immense speed of 1.8kilometers per second is nearly twice as fast as the Atacms, and allows it to strike at its maximum range in under 3 minutes.

Furthermore, while Russian air defenses like the S-300 and S-400 are able to intercept targets at this speed on paper, as a missile enters the hypersonic range, a successful interception becomes increasingly unlikely. 

The fact that the Hrim-2 ballistic missile is a completely domestic product of the Ukrainian military industry, without a reliance on foreign components, makes it possible to quickly produce and fire in large numbers, costing 3 million US dollars, or 2.6 million euros, a piece.

More at the link.

Norway:

Do you also love Norway as much as I do?

A friend in need is a REAL FRIEND. 🇺🇦♥️🇳🇴

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:57 PM

Back to Ukraine.

Interception of the Russian Shahed by the Ukrainian Mi-24.
t.me/YT29JTacRome…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM

Kyiv:

Fascist Russian/Iranian Shahed attack drones (red arrows) converging on Kyiv. Going by previous attacks, there’s a strong possibility of a follow-up missile attack later on, though I haven’t seen any reports of bombers in the air. Most likely it would be ballistics.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 7:19 PM

Warning of ballistic missile attack on Kyiv: Just heard three air bursts… then a fourth, loud enough to set off car alarms. And another three air bursts… another loud blast, more car alarms. Reports of more launches of ballistics…

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 7:35 PM

In the Kyiv region, private houses are on fire in different areas following the russian drone and missile attack 🤬

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 8:00 PM

Fascist Russian attack on Kyiv now: A drone approaches; then, far off, you hear the howl of a siren on another drone as it enters its attack dive, like a Nazi dive-bomber, and the loud blast as it hits. The Doppler effect meanwhile indicates the nearby drone is heading away…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:02 PM

Kharkiv:

Russian drone just flew by, and I didn’t hear it until it was right above 🫥 they seem to be flying high again.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:02 PM

Kramatorsk:

4 bodies were recovered from the rubble in Kramatorsk after yet another Russian strike on the city last night. Search and rescue effort continues.

Russia continues its relentless campaign of bombing Ukrainian cities and killing civilians every single day!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 2:52 PM

Andriivka, Sumy Oblast:’

Ukrainian Forces liberate Andriivka in Sumy Region counteroffensive #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) June 22, 2025 at 11:04 AM

From UA Wire:

Ukrainian armed forces have launched a counteroffensive in the Sumy region, successfully liberating the village of Andriivka from Russian troops. According to analysts from DeepState, the village has been cleared of Russian troops and is now back under Ukrainian control.

As recently as Saturday, June 21, Andriivka—located in the Khotin municipal community of the Sumy district and just 5 km from the Russian border—was still under Russian control. Now, the 3.89 square km area has been fully liberated, marking a crucial victory for Ukrainian forces.

DeepState reports that after prolonged battles and clearance operations, soldiers from the 225th Independent Assault Regiment took control of the village. These strategic actions also served to divert Russian forces from other settlements, halting further Russian advancement towards Khotin and Pysarivka. Following the victory, Ukraine deployed the 110th Independent Mechanized Brigade named after General Khourunzhyi Marko Bezruchko to secure the area.

In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have repelled 17 attacks from invaders on the North-Slobozhansk and Kursk directions, according to the General Staff. The Russians launched 12 airstrikes and used 26 guided aerial bombs, along with 260 artillery strikes, eight from multiple launch rocket systems.

At the same time, Senior Lieutenant “Alex” of the Ukrainian Defense Forces notes that despite the liberation of Andriivka, challenges remain. “Andiivka is liberated but the situation has not become easier. As I said, this is Volchansk direction 2.0,” the military officer emphasized.

More at the link.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

2xAASM Hammer strike on Russian target, Kursk region. t.me/BaluHUB777/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 1:10 PM

The Zaporizhzhia front:

Russian Fuel train on the Zaporizhzhia front targeted by FPV drones.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 5:37 AM

Another video shows a burning Russian train with fuel tanks for the army in Zaporizhzhia region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) June 22, 2025 at 6:50 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new Patron video!

@patron__dsns

Один мінус все-таки є🤭 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – 🌷

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

There is still one minus🤭#песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,214: Ukraine’s Defense Continues Regardless of Where the World’s Attention Is at the MomentPost + Comments (31)

War for Ukraine Day 1,124: Russia Hits More Civilian Targets in Sumy, Kharkiv, & Other Parts of Ukraine

by Adam L Silverman|  March 24, 202510:14 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

I know that Rose covered the big news from this morning, which is good because I don’t want to have to do so. I will just say that this kind of sloppiness is unlikely to be a one off. The question that has to be asked is how many more times has this happened over the past two months and who other than Goldberg ended up getting highly classified information from Trump’s senior natsec team?

The Russians unloaded on Sumy today.

Russia attacked Sumy with missiles just now!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 9:02 AM

Russia just bombed a school and several apartment building in Sumy, as their delegation negotiates “peace.”

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 12:15 PM

UPD Sumy. The number of injured in russian missile attack has risen to 74.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 11:00 AM

14 children injured in Sumy in Russian missile attack. This is Russia’s “negotiations.”

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— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 10:49 AM

Sumy right now‼️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 11:09 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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The War Was Brought from Russia, and It Is to Russia That the War Must Be Pushed Back. They Must Be the Ones Forced Into Peace – Address by the President

24 March 2025 – 20:49

Dear Ukrainians!

The key takeaways from this day. Right now in Sumy, a rescue operation is still ongoing. All services are involved – Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, National Police, our medical and municipal services. There are many injured – as of now, reports confirm nearly 90 people injured, including 17 children. At the epicenter of the attack were a school and residential buildings. Fortunately, the children at the school were in shelter. I am grateful to everyone helping the people and to all those saving the lives of Ukrainians. Each day like this, every night under Russian missiles and drones, every single day of this war brings loss, pain, and destruction that Ukraine never wanted. The war was brought from Russia, and it is to Russia that the war must be pushed back. They must be the ones forced into peace. They are the ones who must be pressured to ensure security. Thank you to everyone who is helping us in this. Thank you to all who are working for the security of Ukraine, for the protection of our people, and for the defense of our cities.

I held a Staff meeting today – various issues were discussed. In particular, the training of our warriors and the modernization of that training. There was a report from General Oleh Apostol, Deputy Commander-in-Chief, on the changes in training – including the implementation of modern methodologies. We also reviewed training programs, psychological support, information support, and cooperation with partners. There are certain issues that need to be addressed. There was also a report on the 18-24 contract program, including the first results. We will be expanding it – I was at the front on Saturday, there is a demand from specific brigades. We will respond positively to that demand – more brigades will be able to take in young volunteers. This experience should also be extended to the National Guard of Ukraine and Border Guard units. All effective units within the Defense Forces must be given every opportunity to develop and enhance the potential of our country and our resilience.Today, we also held meetings focused on diplomatic efforts. I recently spoke with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Yesterday, there was a meeting with the U.S. team. Today, U.S. representatives spoke with the war team – that is, with representatives of Russia. After that, another meeting took place between the Ukrainian and American teams. I’m expecting a new report. What we need is movement toward real peace – toward guaranteed security. And this is something we all need – in Ukraine, in Europe, in America, and across the world – everyone who wants stability in international relations. Russia remains the only actor dragging this war out, jeering at both our people and the global community. To push Russia toward peace, we need strong moves and strong actions. We are ready to support every strong initiative that can make diplomacy more effective – and that means applying pressure to force Russia to want to end this war. That means sanctions. That means support for Ukraine. That means international coordination. This week, we are also preparing substantive work with our European partners on concrete security steps – joint security steps. A significant part of Europe is ready for concrete security work – and that’s a good thing. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Protests continue in Georgia.

Day 117.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 1:28 PM

Day 117. You can help us avoid whatever costs can be avoided by targeted sanctions and calls for new, free and fair Parliamentary elections, because things won’t just “stabilize” in Georgia, we won’t stop – and because Georgia is what Russia plans for Ukraine. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 1:29 PM

“For nearly 3 months, the people of Georgia have been protesting in favour of a future in the EU & against the course of the Georgian leadership. They continue to face intimidation, arrests & violence” – stated in a statement released by the German Foreign Ministry.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 2:45 PM

Jonathan is amazing! It was my pleasure!

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 5:02 PM

The so-called Supreme Court of the Russian-occupied Donetsk region has sentenced Georgian fighter in Ukraine, Nadim Khmaladze, in absentia to 14 years in prison in a strict regime colony.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM

Moscow on the Potomac with a detour through Brasil:

Glenn Greenwald, Tucker Carlson & Alexander Dugin. “This is not just eccentric provocation by MAGA attention-seekers; it is a window into a serious, philosophical concordance that is emerging between parts of the American and Russian right.” www.economist.com/united-state…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 6:52 AM

‘Mr Bannon “has been arguing that the United States and Russia are both Christian and nationalist in their essence,” says Mr Teitelbaum. He argues this is a prelude to a new Republican conception of American identity based on rootedness and peoplehood’ www.economist.com/united-state…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 6:54 AM

From The Economist:

Russophilia was once an affliction of the American left, of socialists who made excuses for Stalinism or Soviet totalitarianism. No longer. One month ago, Glenn Greenwald, a heterodox American journalist once lionised by the left and now admired by the conspiratorial right, dropped by Moscow to absorb the wisdom of Alexander Dugin, a prominent, anti-liberal Russian thinker sometimes likened to “Putin’s Rasputin”.

During his trip to Moscow a year ago to film a sympathetic interview with Vladimir Putin, Tucker Carlson, an influential MAGA media personality, visited Mr Dugin, too, and found him irresistible. “We were having a conversation that we were not going to film…but what you said was so interesting that we got a couple of cameras and put this together,” he gushed at the start of their interview, and nodded enthusiastically as Mr Dugin lambasted the failures of liberalism and the excesses of wokeness. This is not just eccentric provocation by MAGA attention-seekers; it is a window into a serious, philosophical concordance that is emerging between parts of the American and Russian right.

The most obvious alignment is over geopolitics, especially the position of Ukraine. The hardline MAGA right objected to Joe Biden’s military aid not just out of partisan instinct but also because they believe Ukraine ought to have been more accommodating of its regional superpower. Just as America gets to dictate terms within its sphere of influence, to Canada over trade or to Panama over its canal, Russia has rights over Ukraine, this thinking goes. Adherents of America First are realists, not idealists like their neoconservative predecessors. They see foreign interventionism as futile adventurism. Their view of the world is multipolar, as is Mr Dugin’s.

But Mr Dugin’s contempt for Ukraine runs deeper. His most famous work published in 1997, “The Foundations of Geopolitics”, advocates for “Eurasianism”—the idea of a restored, great new Russia that straddles both Asia and Europe. He argued that Ukraine was a “huge danger” to this project. He elaborated: “Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning. It has neither a special cultural message of universal significance, nor geographic uniqueness, nor ethnic exclusivity.” During Mr Putin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, Mr Dugin’s enthusiasm for conquering Ukraine reached such excessive heights that he lost his appointment at the prestigious Moscow State University. His Rasputin-like reputation therefore seems overblown, though he still works as a kind of international ambassador to illiberal right-wing movements. An assassination attempt in 2022—via car bomb, believed to be planted by agents of Ukraine, which killed his daughter—has amplified Mr Dugin’s prominence.

The alignment with MAGA involves more than geopolitics. The ideas that have emerged to justify the governance of Mr Trump and Mr Putin—neither of whom are renowned philosophers—bear striking resemblances. Within the West, the international coalition of nationalist conservatives, stretching from Trumpism in America to bolsonarismo in Brazil to Orbanism in Hungary, rejects the basic precepts of enlightenment liberalism, like individualism and the universality of human rights.

The alignment with MAGA involves more than geopolitics. The ideas that have emerged to justify the governance of Mr Trump and Mr Putin—neither of whom are renowned philosophers—bear striking resemblances. Within the West, the international coalition of nationalist conservatives, stretching from Trumpism in America to bolsonarismo in Brazil to Orbanism in Hungary, rejects the basic precepts of enlightenment liberalism, like individualism and the universality of human rights.

This critique is shared by Russian justifiers of Mr Putin, who see an alliance against the decadence and depravity of liberalism. They disdain globalism and wokeness, which they see as the logical endpoint of Western liberalism. To prevent global hegemony of any kind, national conservatives in America, France, Hungary and Italy argue that the sovereignty of the nation-state must be supreme. Whereas Mr Dugin once argued that Russia ought to create an axis with Germany and Japan (“dismembering” China in the process) to stand up to American hegemony, he now recognises that such efforts are unnecessary. “Each day it becomes more and more evident that USA and Russia are on the same wave, but EU-globalists are on the opposite one,” he wrote recently on X.

You might think there would be irreconcilable differences between the MAGA and Russian right, since Mr Dugin is straightforward in his advocacy for an authoritarian state unified with the Orthodox Church, even suggesting the restoration of the oprichniki, the tsarist secret police established by Ivan the Terrible. “Should we not recognise autocracy, patriarchy and the authoritarian system not only de facto, but also de jure? Shouldn’t the Church and the institutions of traditional society regain their dominant position in society?” he wrote in 2022. The nationalist conservative movement in America and Europe, however, is couched in majoritarian populism—expressing the democratic will of people while imposing ever-fewer limits on the authority of their elected representatives. In America the goal is to smash the liberal state.

“In the Russian case, the state is the embodiment of the nation. It’s not the case in the us. Trump is dismantling the federal state; Putin’s goal is to reinforce the state,” says Marlene Laruelle, a professor at George Washington University.

In this respect, the Russian political right does not represent the mainstream of the Trumpist intellectual right. Yet some of its ideas resonate with fringier figures. One strain of right-wing, post-liberal thought in America is integralism. Its adherents argue for the unification of the Catholic church with the state. Some, like Patrick Deneen, a critic of liberalism and professor at Notre Dame University, argue for “aristopopulism”—replacement of rule of the current, decadent elite with a different elite with the right politics.

American thinkers affiliated with the so-called “Dark Enlightenment” or “neo-reactionary movement” are more straightforward in arguing against egalitarianism and democracy. Curtis Yarvin, one such thinker, has called for an American monarchy that would be run by a dictator-president, a figure sometimes referred to more politely as a “national CEO”. Vice-President J.D. Vance has approvingly cited Mr Yarvin’s work, though not the monarchic aspects of his outlook. Recently Mr Vance greeted him at a party by saying, in jest, “Yarvin, you reactionary fascist!”

There are other discordances, too. Western national conservatives aim to defend the nation-state from globalism, whereas the sacred object for Mr Dugin (and Mr Putin) is the Russian civilisation-state, which transcends Westphalian borders. “They describe me as ultranationalist, but I am not nationalist at all!” Mr Dugin told Mr Greenwald in his interview.

More at the link.

Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Committee, called for U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s recall, labeling his remarks on referendums in Russian-occupied areas “disgraceful.” Merezhko accused Witkoff of echoing Russian propaganda, questioning if he represents Trump or Putin.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM

Back to Ukraine.

The cost:

Russian captivity kills! Red Cross neglects their duty before Ukrainian prisoners held in russian captivity, failing to provide protection, any help whatsoever, or even visit them.

On the picture is Ivan Petrovsky. He spent 1037 days in russian captivity and lost 40 kg.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 8:31 AM

Marusya is 7 years old and from Dnipro

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) March 20, 2025 at 9:34 AM

Despite their own intelligence, American officials began to take Putin at his word. Russia was able to influence some people from Trump’s team: they told them that Ukrainians do not want the war to end and we must be forced to- Volodymyr Zelenskyy for TIME.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 9:23 AM

From Time:

early six years have passed since Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine, yet he still cringes at all the polished brass and chandeliers that crowd his office. The place does seem rather gaudy, like a room plucked straight from Mar-a-Lago, and Zelensky can’t seem to stop apologizing for it as he shows me around one evening in March. He would rather scrap the furniture, he says, rip down the pilasters, and use white paint to hide the gold leaf on the ceiling.

“But, you know, we haven’t had much time for renovations, especially these last few years,” he says, referring to the war. Only in the back of his chambers, behind Ukraine’s version of the Resolute Desk, is there a space that feels like home to Zelensky—a small room with a single bed and a set of paintings that he chose himself. They are not museum pieces. At the local bazaar, similar ones might fetch a few hundred dollars at most. But they matter to the president because of what they represent.

The one that hangs above his bed shows a Russian warship sinking into the Black Sea. Another shows Ukrainian troops fighting recently on Russian territory. The third, Zelensky’s favorite, shows the Kremlin engulfed in flames. “Each one’s about victory,” he says as we cram into the space for a look at the pictures. “That’s where I live.”

But he did not invite me over for a tour. His basic aim, as far as I could tell, was to clear the air after his recent visit to the Oval Office, the one that became a viral sensation for the world and a source of trepidation for his country. For several interminable minutes on the morning of Feb. 28, President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance had berated Zelensky, calling him ungrateful, weak and dangerous while talking over his attempts to argue back. “You don’t hold the cards,” Trump told Zelensky. “You’re gambling with World War III!”

On the advice of people he trusts, Zelensky has mostly avoided talking about the episode, not wanting to deepen a diplomatic crisis that had threatened to cost him nothing less than his country’s existence. His standard answer to questions about it has been, “Let’s leave that to history.” Even now, he hopes to turn the page and move on. But his instincts rarely allow him to keep quiet for long about the things that bother him, which is partly what got him into trouble with Trump.

Going into that meeting, Zelensky says, he had it all planned out. He had been to the White House a handful of times during the war. But this would be his first sit-down with Trump in the Oval Office, and it would mark a critical point in Trump’s effort to force a peace deal in Ukraine. To make an impression, Zelensky decided to bring a set of gifts. Their aim was to break through any ill will the U.S. President felt toward Ukraine, and to dispel what Zelensky believed was the influence of Russian propaganda on the White House.

One of the gifts fit with an emerging tradition of the Trump era, in which guests bring shiny tokens of their respect and fealty. In a recent example, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, gave Trump a golden pager, commemorating the explosive devices Israel used to kill or injure thousands of its enemies last year in Lebanon. Vladimir Putin went further than that, commissioning an oil painting of Trump and sending it this month to the White House. In Zelensky’s case, the gift was even glitzier: the championship belt of his friend Oleksandr Usyk, who holds the world heavyweight boxing title.

As he took his seat in the Oval Office, Zelensky placed the belt on a side table near his right elbow, planning to reach over and hand it to Trump in front of the assembled journalists. Instead, as the televised briefing began, Zelensky reached for another one of his gifts. It was a folder containing a series of gruesome photographs, showing Ukrainian prisoners of war after their time in Russian captivity. Some of their bodies were grotesquely emaciated. Others showed signs of torture. “That’s tough stuff,” Trump said, his face leaden, as he took the photos from Zelensky and began leafing through them.

Those pictures, according to some U.S. officials, marked the point when the meeting went wrong. Had Zelensky offered the championship belt, the gesture might have lightened the mood. The photos had the opposite effect. They seemed to get Trump’s guard up, as though he were being blamed for the suffering of those soldiers. Still, even today, Zelensky does not regret his decision to present these images. He had been trying to reach beyond Trump’s transactional instincts, beyond his need for flattery, and appeal to Trump as a human being. “He has family, loved ones, children. He has to feel the things that every person feels,” Zelensky says. “What I wanted to show were my values. But then, well, the conversation went in another direction.”

Among the most painful exchanges in the Oval Office meeting took place near the end, when Zelensky asked whether J.D. Vance had visited Ukraine during the war. They both knew he had not, and Vance shot back that he had no interest in Zelensky’s “propaganda tours.”

The insult must have stung. Throughout the invasion, it has been the policy of Ukraine to encourage guests to see its destruction up close. Zelensky often brings visitors to hospitals full of wounded soldiers, ruins caused by missile strikes, or mass graves that Russian forces leave behind. Envoys from the White House have made a point of avoiding such excursions since Trump took office in January. But Zelensky remains committed to their value in diplomacy, and his team invited me to take such a trip on the day of our interview.

Much more at the link.

Ukrainian tennis star Marta Kostyuk wraps up her victory over russian Anna Blinkova at the Miami Open today with an underarm ace serve💥

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 7:28 AM

A drone operator from the Czech Republic is destroying Russians.

“We all enjoy it when we eliminate Russians – one arm goes one way, everything else goes the other.” – says Karolína, a UAV operator from the 59th Assault Brigade.
youtu.be/Op3noVfgnY8?…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 11:58 AM

Kharkiv:

In Kharkiv, russian drone just landed on the children’s playground.

Thankfully, it didn’t detonate.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 3:22 PM

Kyiv:

Kyiv Patrol Police showed the first moments after drone debris hit a high-rise building on March 23.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 7:48 AM

Nadia, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Democratic Ukraine could defeat fascist Russia if the West gave it full military support and imposed (and enforced) more damaging sanctions on the Kremlin.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 5:28 AM

Somewhere in Russia:

Several Ukrainian drones successfully reached the Russian ammunition depot.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 2:39 PM

Primorsky Krai:

Russians report a crash of a Su-25: “A Su-25 crashed in Primorsky Krai (Russia). Preliminary cause: engine failure. The pilot ejected. He is alive and well.”

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

🚀HIMARS missiles with 180,000 tungsten carbide balls strike on the Russian military helicopters in the Belgorod region of Russia.

🚁Two Russian Ka-52 and two Mi-8 helicopters were targeted. t.me/ukr_sof/1518

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 24, 2025 at 1:37 AM

Obligatory:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

When we see these eyes, we have no choice but to help. #DogsOfUkraine 🇺🇦

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) March 16, 2025 at 10:14 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,124: Russia Hits More Civilian Targets in Sumy, Kharkiv, & Other Parts of UkrainePost + Comments (13)

War for Ukraine Day 1,092: The Butcher’s Bill from Russia’s Attack Last Night

by Adam L Silverman|  February 20, 202510:53 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick unrelated note: The Israeli National Institute of Forensic Medicine has now confirmed – wishing the past 2 hours or so –  that the second adult remains returned today are NOT Shiri Bibas. They have positive DNA matches on the remains of Oded Lifschitz and on the two Bibas children, but they have no match for Shiri Bibas or any other Israeli hostage. The remains are likely those of a Gazan Palestinian woman killed in the conflict.
There are three possibilities here:

  1. Shiri Bibas is dead, but the remains could not be recovered, so they sent this woman’s remains back (I assess this as low probability as it doesn’t further Hamas’s interests).
  2. Hamas was not holding Shiri Bibas, either PIJ or one of the criminal orgs was, and this is what they gave Hamas and Hamas sent them back not knowing they were not Shiri Bibas (I assess this as a moderate to high probability).
  3. One of the criminal orgs was holding Shiri Bibas and they trafficked her (I assess this as a moderate probability as it would explain why the children were killed shortly after they were kidnapped).

I expect that this will lead to a significant uptick in violence.

One other, but related note, before we get started. There is significant inaccurate information bouncing around today regarding what Trump and his natsec team are or might be doing in regarding the EU or Ukraine. It’s not disinformation, nor misinformation per se as the sources are legit. Rather, it’s remarks were made by senior leaders in different European states and in Ukraine that further reporting/clarifications indicated were innacurate.

As expected, last night’s Russian drone swarms were followed by missiles. Here’s the butcher’s bill.

Kherson, after last night’s russian aerial bomb attack on the residential building.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:56 AM

Rescuers have recovered the body of a man from beneath the rubble at the site of the russian air strike in Kherson. Rescue efforts are ongoing.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 9:11 AM

In the aftermath of last night’s russian strike on a residential building in Kherson, rescuers recovered the body of a mother of two from the rubble. Her 14-year-old twins, a boy and a girl, are among the injured.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 12:40 PM

Last night, russia launched a missile attack on critical infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainian Air Force reported

Up to 14 missiles were fired, including Kh-101/Kh-55SM, Kalibr/Iskander-K, & Iskander-M/KN-23. Details on the impact of the attack have not been disclosed

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 3:28 AM

I’ve seen the scale of destruction caused by a single Iskander missile strike, yet even I struggle to imagine the aftermath of 14 such strikes.

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 3:38 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Peace Is Always a Common Cause – Especially the Peace We Must Leave for All Future Generations – Address by the President

20 February 2025 – 23:50

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today has been a very long day.

I held a Staff meeting, where I received briefings from the military on our positions at the front, the situation with supplies – contracts, weapons packages. The work continues, and I am grateful to every one of our partners who understands the need for strong positions – both on the frontline to protect our people and in diplomacy, where both strength and truth matter. There were reports on deep-strike operations against Russian military facilities and infrastructure supporting the war. For every two dollars invested in our long-range capabilities, we already ensure almost ten dollars in Russian losses. This is the dynamic we need – Russia must feel the cost of war to truly want peace. Additionally, the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service presented important reports today.

And today, we also had a lot of international activities. General Kellogg – a meeting that restores hope. We need strong agreements with the United States – agreements that will truly work. I gave instructions to work swiftly and very sensibly. Economy and security must always go hand in hand, and the details of the agreements matter – the better they are structured, the greater the results. With General Kellogg, we discussed the frontline situation, the need to release all our prisoners held in Russia, and the necessity of a reliable and clear system of security guarantees – one that ensures this war will never return and that Russians will never again destroy lives. We all need peace – Ukraine, Europe, America, everyone in the world.

I just spoke with President Macron – we coordinated our positions, discussed the next steps and views on security guarantees in particular. I spoke with the Prime Minister of Denmark – we appreciate that Mette and the people of Denmark feel what we are striving for. I spoke with the Prime Minister of Norway – not only about our bilateral relations but also about Europe’s future and energy security. I spoke with the President of Finland – there are good and important proposals, and we exchanged views on how the situation is developing. I spoke with the Prime Minister of Canada – I informed him about the current developments, and we discussed prospects within the G7 in particular. I also spoke today with the President of South Africa – I am grateful for the support, support of our sovereignty, and for the position that the peace process must be inclusive. Peace is always a common cause – especially the peace we must leave for all future generations. Thank you all for your help, and for the feeling of unity – unity that is as important now as it was in 2022. I am proud of our people – of everyone who fights, who helps, and who believes that evil must not prevail in wars.

And I began this day by honoring the memory of Ukrainians who died 11 years ago… Already 11 years. The Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred. The Heroes of Dignity. Eleven years ago, on this day, Russia’s first aggressive steps against our Crimea began. Ukraine will do everything to end this war – everything necessary. And we need a just peace – one worthy of the nation that so bravely defends itself. I am proud of you, Ukrainians! And I see how you defend the truth. This is extremely important. Thank you! Thank you for your support!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Tbilisi, freezing cold. -2℃. 22:20. The 85th day of continuous protests against Georgian Dream’s Russian actions and decisions.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM

Protesters read out names of Georgians fallen in Russia’s war in Ukraine and chant “Glory to the Heroes!” after each name. This is our struggle too! They gave their lives for a free Georgia! 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:02 PM

The next week will be even worse. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:31 PM

Temur Katamadze, who was arrested for participating in protests, refuses to end his hunger strike. He has been on hunger strike for 35 days, consuming only water, and is now hospitalized.

#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:42 AM

Protesters read out names of Georgians fallen in Russia’s war in Ukraine and chant “Glory to the Heroes!” after each name. This is our struggle too! They gave their lives for a free Georgia! 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:02 PM

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 8:55 AM

The US:

“The US is opposing calling Russia the aggressor in a G7 statement on the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine” – shocking stuff from @christopherjm.ft.com on just how quickly the Trump administration is swinging behind Putin’s Russia. www.ft.com/content/7380…

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— Evan O’Connell (@evanoconnell.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 9:09 AM

From The Financial Times:

The US is opposed to calling Russia the aggressor in a G7 statement on the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, threatening to derail a traditional show of unity, according to western officials.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s participation at a virtual G7 summit on Monday has also not yet been agreed, officials said, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s office announced she would not participate.

It comes after US President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for the war, described Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections” and suggested that Russia should be invited back into the G7.

The Trump administration doubled down on its criticism of Zelenskyy on Thursday, with national security adviser Mike Waltz accusing Kyiv of hurling “unacceptable” insults at the US president, and also demanding that Ukraine agree to a minerals deal.

The dispute over the planned G7 statement comes after Trump shocked Kyiv and its European allies by contacting Russian President Vladimir Putin and authorising bilateral talks that are aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

Trump has flattered Putin, agreed to many of his demands regarding the war and showed a willingness to quickly normalise Washington’s relations with Moscow.

US envoys are objecting to the phrase “Russian aggression” and similar words that have been used by G7 leaders since 2022 to describe the war in Ukraine, the officials said.

The world’s leading economies have traditionally issued a statement of support for Ukraine on February 24, the day on which Russia’s full-scale invasion started three years ago.

“We are adamant there must be a distinction made between Russia and Ukraine. They are not the same,” an official briefed on the matter told the Financial Times.

“The Americans are blocking that language, but we are still working on it and hopeful of an agreement.”

In a further snub, a planned news conference following talks between Zelenskyy and Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, was cancelled after a US request, according to officials in Kyiv.

The US embassy in Kyiv declined to comment, but Zelenskyy said he had a “good conversation, full of details” with Kellogg on Thursday.

The two men discussed the situation on the battlefield, Zelenskyy said, “as well as effective security guarantees . . . We have proposed the fastest and most constructive way to achieve results.”

The change in US language on Russia marks a contrast with last year, when the country’s aggression was mentioned five times in the G7 leaders’ statement.

The 2024 statement said: “We call on Russia to immediately cease its war of aggression and completely and unconditionally withdraw its military forces from the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.”

The Trump administration’s insistence on softening the language reflects a broader shift in US policy to describe the war as the “Ukraine conflict”, people familiar with the matter said.

Recent statements from the US Department of State use similar wording, including a readout from secretary of state Marco Rubio’s meeting on Tuesday with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh that twice mentions “the conflict in Ukraine”.

Waltz said Trump was “very frustrated” with Zelenskyy over his perceived ingratitude for American support during the war and Kyiv’s rejection of a US proposal to take rights to half of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.

“Some of the rhetoric coming out of Kyiv, frankly — and insults to President Trump — were unacceptable,” he added.

Waltz called on Zelenskyy to reopen talks over a critical minerals deal, after Trump suggested the US was owed $500bn worth of Ukraine’s resources in exchange for Washington’s assistance to the war-torn country.

Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives, said there was “no appetite” for another funding bill for Ukraine in Congress, adding the conflict had to be brought to an end.

Elon Musk, the technology billionaire and key Trump adviser, hit out at Zelenskyy and repeated the president’s call to hold an election in Ukraine.

“In reality, he is despised by the people of Ukraine, which is why he has refused to hold an election,” Musk said.

A poll published this week showed the Ukrainian president enjoyed 57 per cent support at home, up from 52 per cent in December, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

More at the link.

The EU:

Europeans have to realize 3 things:
1. Trump prefers Putin over democratic Europeans.
2. Trump: “our friends are worse than our enemies” so the “friends” are no longer friends.
3. Trump has ended NATO & US support for democracies.

— Anders Åslund (@andersaslund.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 12:05 PM

Tbh, I saw this and thought: “careful Economist, it can always get worse…”
#happythoughts

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— Ulrike Franke (@rikefranke.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:39 PM

France:

President Macron went online to discuss the situation in Ukraine and answer questions for an hour.

Among other things, he reaffirmed the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, emphasizing that he won fair elections. Macron highlighted that new elections are

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM

currently unfeasible due to ongoing occupation, the large number of refugees, and people being on the frontline. He stressed the need for lasting peace first.

he also pointed out that Putin has a long history of manipulating elections in russia.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM

Back to Ukraine.

Make no mistake, the talks about “Zelensky not being nice to Trump” coming from US officials are a farce. Unfortunately, the Russians have presented the US with a list of demands outlining how they envision Ukraine’s future. While I can’t publish the list, I can say a few things:

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM

it closely resembles the early versions of the Istanbul agreement, and it’s likely to leak soon. When the US started to follow some of the points from these demands, I have serious doubts that if Zelensky bows to Trump, it will make any difference.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM

Anybody with a minimal of at least two brain cells to rub together knows who started this! Ukrainian female POWs tortured and paraded naked through the snow by Russian troops. And we know who doesn’t have those two cells to begin with!

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-healt…

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— hsack121 (@hsack121.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 1:08 PM

From The Telegraph:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Ukrainian women taken as prisoners of war are being tortured and humiliated by Russian soldiers in a systematic campaign of abuse, survivors have revealed.

Some have been subjected to cruel degradations, including being forced to march naked in the snow and expose themselves to their captors.

The Telegraph tracked down four women who agreed to speak out about the months and, in some cases, years they spent in captivity.

Their testimonies reveal the brutality with which Moscow’s forces treat the Ukrainians they have captured, providing evidence of what are almost certainly war crimes.

“They led us to the showers with bags over our heads, where we were forced to undress. We had to walk naked in front of the men and everyone else, bent over, through freezing cold water,” said Larysa Kycherenko, 53, who served in Ukraine’s National Guard.

“Afterwards, we were forced to sing the Russian anthem while naked. We returned to the cells in tears, utterly distraught, crying and in a state of hysteria… It was inhumane. To them, we were nothing.”

While they make up a small minority of the total number of POWs captured by Russia, women like Ms Kycherenko say the threats they faced were different to those of the men imprisoned alongside them.

“If it’s hard for men, it’s even harder for women – many of the women weren’t fighters,” she said.

Ms Kycherenko, her husband and her 34-year-old son were captured in occupied Mariupol in 2022 after they were betrayed by their neighbours.

ALL CLEAR!!!!

Much, much more at the link!

Paratroopers of the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, on a “Husky” armored vehicle, dashed directly to the Russian position and manually dropped an anti-tank mine TM-62.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 2:49 PM

Kyiv:

⚡️Several waves of explosions reported in Kyiv.

Explosions were heard in Kyiv around midnight local time, according to a Kyiv Independent journalist on the ground. Air defense has been active in the capital.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) February 20, 2025 at 5:24 PM

The sounds of war in the sky of Kyiv right now

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 3:41 PM

Today is also the day of remembrance for the Heavenly Hundred.

Eleven years ago, our country changed forever when we broke away from Russia. Heavenly Hundred sacrificed for independent future of Ukraine, and today we stand stronger and more resilient—defending our freedom and values.

Ukrainians decide our own future.

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— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:04 AM

Today in #Ukraine it’s the Day of the Heavenly Hundred.

This day in 2014 proved to be the bloodiest day of the revolution as the #Russia controlled government killed 48 protesters. In total 107 people died in the Euromaidan protests.
I was there, these are my photos.

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— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 4:06 AM

Odesa:

For the second day in a row, russia continues to destroy Odesa’s energy infrastructure. As a result of another night attack, ~5000 people have been left without electricity.

Light will overcome darkness eventually. Modern russia will be remembered as a terrorist state forever.

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— UNITED24 (@u24.gov.ua) February 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM

🔥🇺🇦 For the second night in a row, Russians have attacked a power facility in Odesa.
As a result of the attacks on Odesa district, 89,500 customers are without electricity. A 55-year-old man was also injured in the shelling and hospitalized.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 8:03 AM

💥 Night air battle over Odesa. Soldiers of the Ukrainian Navy destroyed 16 Shaheds.

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:46 AM

Sumy Oblast:

Russians attempted to break into the Sumy region with two BMD-2s, but after several hits, they abandoned the equipment and ran away.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 11:46 AM

Donetsk Oblast:

The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a six-hour Russian assault in the Donetsk sector.
t.me/c/1657686284…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM

Do not try this at home!!!!

Improvised Russian rocket launcher built from scrap materials

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 6:29 PM

Moscow:

A research institute in Moscow, the Lebedev Institute of Precision Mechanics and Computer Engineering, which developed military tech and was under EU and Swiss sanctions, burned down overnight. The cause of the fire is undisclosed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 8:12 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

She knows who started the war in Ukraine.

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— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@lorenzothecat.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 7:09 PM

Today’s Dog of War is this pup who Nastia ran into while taking a walk. The doggie has the whole winter outfit together – from beanie to lil boots – to go through hopefully one of the last freezing weeks of the winter.

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— Tim Mak (@timkmak.bsky.social) February 19, 2025 at 10:22 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,092: The Butcher’s Bill from Russia’s Attack Last NightPost + Comments (15)

War for Ukraine Day 1,055: A Brief Monday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  January 13, 20256:55 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: I had some dental work done to bring some very old repairs up to 2024 standards this afternoon. I’m very tired and expect discomfort as the anesthesia wears off. I’m just going to hit the highlights, have something to eat, and rack out. No real analysis tonight.

About 2/3rds of Ukraine is under air raid alert as of 6:30 PM EDT/1:30 AM local time in Ukraine. The alert maps don’t have any Russian fixed wing craft up as part of the alert, just drones. At least for now, this appears to be another drone swarm attack.

⚡️Explosions heard in Kyiv.

Several loud explosions were heard in central Kyiv late at night on Jan. 13, Kyiv Independent correspondents reported.

According to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, air defense units are repelling a drone attack against the city.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) January 13, 2025 at 4:51 PM

Kharkiv region is under the russian drone attack right now‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 1:41 PM

“Target down.” A video of the downing of one of the “Shaheds” on January 13 has surfaced online.

The Air Force Command released footage of combat action against a Shahed-type attack drone on the eastern front.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 9:30 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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A Survey Has Been Launched in the Army Plus App – It Includes Five Candidates for the Position of Hetman Sahaidachnyi National Land Forces Academy Head – Address by the President

13 January 2025 – 21:32

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff.

The key issue is the development of our drones and all forms of their usage. There were reports on production and contracts, from FPV drones to long-range models, as well as on solutions that will allow us to more effectively destroy the invader and protect the lives of our warriors. There are technological proposals we must implement, and I am grateful to all our military personnel, every company, every official, and every volunteer involved in this effort to continuously modernize the Ukrainian army in terms of technologies.

There was also a report on robotic systems, as well as on artillery – both our domestic artillery production and our global procurement, especially of ammunition.

It is important that Ukraine has good dynamics in the production of artillery, and our own capabilities to supply the army will only increase.

Today, we also discussed personnel matters with Oleksandr Syrskyi, Anatoliy Barhylevych, Mykhailo Drapatyi, and Pavlo Palisa, specifically the appointment of a new head of the Hetman Sahaidachnyi National Land Forces Academy.

It is one of the key military education institutions in Ukraine, and the Academy definitely deserves changes. What exactly those changes will be and who will implement them will be decided together with our Ukrainian military, with all our warriors who want changes.

To that end, a corresponding survey has been launched in the Army Plus app. It includes five candidates for the position of Academy head and an opportunity to suggest changes to the education process and relations within the Academy.

It is especially important for cadets and Academy graduates to share their experiences and ideas.

As of now, two thousand votes have already been cast – just a few hours since the survey was launched. Thank you to everyone participating. The Army Plus app is available to all our warriors.

I thank the team at the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for developing such functionality.

I also had a conversation today with the President of France. It was a pretty long and detailed discussion. We discussed defense support – various forms, arms packages for Ukraine. We talked about investments in the procurement of shells for Ukraine. We also discussed the deployment of partner contingents and the training of our troops. And of course, the global situation. We are coordinating our positions. Thank you, France! Thank you, Emmanuel.

And one more thing.

Today, I signed documents concerning sanctions. One is a decree imposing sanctions on Russia’s financial sector, targeting 140 different entities. We will continue working with our partners to align our pressure. The second document is a draft law introducing criminal liability for attempts to circumvent sanctions. This is, in many ways, a continuation of international practices regarding sanctions enforcement. We all understand that the more pressure we exert on the aggressor, the closer we bring peace. Sanctions are one of the most effective tools for justly pressuring Russia and everyone associated with it or working for the war. This draft law will be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Slovakia:

🤣 Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to an invitation from Slovak Prime Minister Fico.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 12:34 PM

Germany:

Ukraine has received its first advanced wheeled howitzer, the RCH 155.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius handed over the first of 54 RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 7:52 AM

The US:

Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine/Russia on timetable for ending war: Let’s set it at 100 days and move all the way back and figure a way we can do this in the near term to make sure that the solution is solid, it’s sustainable, and that this war ends

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— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 6:25 PM

I have been the Senior Civilian Advisor to seven general officers/flag officers (GO/FO). The above is what happens when a GO/FO has no idea what they’re talking about, do not understand the actual strategic issues, and no one staffed (read prepped) them for their engagement.

Georgia:

Day 47 of large-scale nationwide protests; day 77 of protests overall. We have two demands:
1. New, free and fair elections;
2. The release of the unlawfully detained.
#GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia #NewElectionsforGeorgia

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 12:41 PM

@netgazeti.org has released a video and stated that their director, Mzia Amaglobeli, was insulted during her detention by the head of Batumi police, Irakli Dgebuadze. In the video, his words can be heard: “With criminal code… I’ll arrest her with criminal code and I’ll f***”

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 8:10 AM

🟥 The video shows #Batumi Police Chief Irakli Dgebuadze cursing & threatening Mzia Amaghlobeli, the founder and CEO of Netgazeti & Batumelebi, after her arrest.

⭕️ Dgebuadze personally participated in the arrest.
⭕️ Amaglobeli is accused of attacking Dgebuadze – a Police Officer.
#TerrorInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 9:04 AM

Amaglobeli has been detained since the night of Jan 11-12. Initially arrested for putting up a poster, she was briefly released before being rearrested. This video followed her second arrest. She is now accused of “attacking a police officer,” punishable by 4 to 7 years in prison

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 11:15 AM

🟥 January 13 – A protest rally is taking place near the Batumi City Court, where cases of participants detained during the January 11 #GeorgiaProtests are being heard.

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 12:10 PM

“Freedom for Mzia Amaghlobeli!” – Representatives of the media and civil society are holding a protest rally in the Batumi, demanding the release of the head of independent media outlet @netgazeti.org. Amaghlobeli is facing imprisonment for 4 to 7 years.

#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 11:50 AM

Friends, it is important to support @netgazeti.org agency and battle the regime narrative that the director, Mzia Amaghlobeli, is to blame for slapping a policeman. International outlook on Batumelebi must be that of unconditional support as a regime-oppressed media & director.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 4:33 PM

2/5
After Mzia left the police administrative building, where she had been arrested on an administrative charge for putting up a poster, she stopped some distance from the gate of the building with her relatives.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

3/5
We were there with our family members, who were even cheerful due to her release. The situation was entirely calm, and the demonstration was naturally coming to an end. Suddenly, the gate opened, and Dgebuadze rushed out with several police officers.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

4/5
They began detaining our relatives without any justification, triggering chaos and confusion. The officers were cursing and threatening us during the incident. Mzia was dragged away, even losing a shoe in the process.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

5/5
In panic caused by the police, people could not understand why they were being beaten or detained. Mzia’s reaction was not an attack on a police officer surrounded by about 20 other officers; it was a response to the violence, humiliation, & threats perpetrated by the police”.

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) January 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM

The regime detains people for longer periods now. The standard would be 2 days pre-trial. The recent Batumi detainees are sentenced to 5 days. The standard administrative offense article 173, “disobedience,” implies up to 15 days detention. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 5:03 PM

Back to Ukraine.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

“The agency assessed that the North Koreans are struggling to adapt to drones and other elements of modern warfare. They are further disadvantaged by the crude tactics of their Russian commanders” apnews.com/article/nort…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 5:42 AM

From the AP:

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers on Monday that two North Korean soldiers who were captured by Ukrainian forces while fighting alongside Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk border region haven’t expressed a desire to seek asylum in South Korea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he’s willing to hand over the soldiers to North Korea if the country’s authoritarian leader, Kim Jong Un, arranges for an exchange with Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia. Zelenskyy said one of the North Korean soldiers wishes to stay in Ukraine while the other wants to return to his country, which was consistent with interview videos released by his government. “If Kim Jong Un even remembers these citizens of his and is capable of organizing an exchange for our warriors being held in Russia, we are ready to transfer such soldiers. Undoubtedly there will be more POWs from North Korea,” Zelenskyy said in an address late Sunday. He said in a separate posting on the social media platform X that “there may be other options” for North Korean prisoners who don’t wish to go back.

In a closed-door briefing at South Korea’s National Assembly, the National Intelligence Service confirmed its participation in the questioning of the North Korean soldiers by Ukrainian authorities. The agency said the soldiers haven’t expressed a request to resettle in South Korea, according to two lawmakers who attended the meeting.

The agency said it was willing to discuss the matter with Ukrainian authorities if the soldiers eventually do ask to go to South Korea. About 34,000 North Koreans have defected to capitalist rival South Korea to avoid economic hardship and political suppression at home, mostly since the late 1990s.

Koo Byoungsam, spokesperson of South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, said facilitating the asylum of the North Korean soldiers would require “legal reviews, including on international law, and consultations with related nations.”

“There’s nothing we can say at the current stage,” Koo said.

Seoul’s spy agency believes that about 300 North Korean soldiers have died and another 2,700 have been injured while fighting against Ukrainian forces, in what represents North Korea’s first involvement in large-scale conflict since the 1950-53 Korean War.

The agency assessed that the North Koreans are struggling to adapt to drones and other elements of modern warfare. They are further disadvantaged by the crude tactics of their Russian commanders, who have thrown them in assault campaigns without providing rear-fire support, according to Lee Seong Kweun, a lawmaker who attended the agency’s briefing.

The agency said memos found on dead North Korean soldiers indicated that they had been ordered to commit suicide before being captured, according to Lee. The agency said one North Korean soldier, facing the threat of being captured by Ukrainian forces, shouted “General Kim Jong Un” and tried to detonate a hand grenade before he was shot and killed.

Moon Seong Mook, a retired South Korean brigadier general, said the high death toll for North Korean soldiers was predictable, as they would not have been sufficiently prepared for an unfamiliar mission in the terrain of the Kursk region, which is vastly different from North Korea’s mountainous landscape.

Another disadvantage for the North Koreans is that they are not conducting independent operations but are being thrust into combat under Russian commanders, possibly struggling with unfamiliar tactics and communication issues due to language barriers, said Moon, who has taken part in numerous military talks with North Korea. The North Korean forces could be operating special surveillance teams to arrest or execute attempted deserters, he said.

“The current battlefield environment, combined with drones and other technologies, have created situations North Korean soldiers have never encountered before,” Moon said. “They are also being deployed in large numbers in wide-open fields, where there is no place to hide, in continuous battles to retake the area, and that seems to be where the casualties are coming from.”

Much more at the link!

Lyptsy, Kharkiv Oblast:

Lyptsy, Kharkiv region. Another town dying under russian bombs.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 1:24 PM

Bryansk, Russia:

/1.Ballistic missiles strike is reported in Bryansk, Russia. Presumably ATACMS were used.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 2:07 PM

/2. Preliminary, the Bryansk Chemical Plant named after the 50th Anniversary of the USSR was attacked.

This is a military plant which among other things is a known location for manufacture of ammunition and overhaul of Russian MLRS systems, such as: Uragan, Grad, Tornado-G.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 2:24 PM

/3. Bryansk Chemical Plant burning after missile strikes.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) January 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent materials.

🦁🇺🇦 Odesa Zoo showed a day in the life of its pets – white lions.
These are extremely rare animals listed in the Red Book. There are only about 300 of these predators in the world, and several of them are “Odessans” 🥰

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) January 12, 2025 at 9:36 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,055: A Brief Monday Night UpdatePost + Comments (15)

War for Ukraine Day 976: Odesa Under Attack

by Adam L Silverman|  October 26, 20248:31 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is continuing to slowly do better. Though she is milking it a bit regarding her food. Tonight she got a freshly cooked hamburger. Last night she got a freshly cooked chicken breast. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, despite a nap yesterday, and about ten hours of sleep overnight, I’m still fried. I’m trying not to nod off as I type this, so I’m just going to run through the basics again so I can rack out. I’ll get to that other stuff tomorrow night.

Russian opened up on Odesa with a ballistic missile earlier today.

Loud explosion over central
Odesa. Media reporting Crimea-launched ballistic missile. Shortly after earlier drone attack in the region. pic.twitter.com/zUJM0HMPqV

— Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) October 26, 2024

People ceilings fell down from blast wave not even at attack point #Odesa pic.twitter.com/nbtzI1YYSr

— Twin Anna Pirates MD (@AnnaOdesitka) October 26, 2024

Here’s a partial butcher’s bill from Russia’s genocidal attack on Ukrainian civilians and civilian facilities last night:

#Kyiv
A missile hit a high-rise
Girl, 15, killed
6 injured#Dnipro
3 killed (1 child)
19 injured (4 kids)
1 child lost an arm…#Kherson
2 killed by artillery
1 man by a drone

That’s just overnight and incomplete; numbers still coming in #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/fHURDaACJC

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 26, 2024

It you’re wondering why Ukraine needs to retake their Russian occupied territories, it is not just to restore Ukraine’s legitimate, internationally recognized borders. It is also to push Russia’s military back as far as possible to deny the Russians the ability to attack Ukraine from closer range.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Expect the Necessary Increase in Pressure on Russia and More Support for Ukraine – Address by the President

26 October 2024 – 20:02

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, efforts were still underway to clear the rubble in Dnipro after the Russian strike. More than 20 people were injured by the strike – all have received the necessary assistance. But tragically, five people were killed, including a child. In Kyiv, a girl died as a result of a strike by “Shahed” drones – she was fourteen years old. My condolences to all families and loved ones.

Today, the town of Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region was attacked. Four police officers were injured. There were also shellings in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, the Donetsk region was under attack, the south of our state: Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, our Kherson region.

Each of these days of war proves only that Moscow is determined to continue its aggression. They want nothing else there. That is why they are trying to increase their defense production, and specifically by circumventing sanctions. That is why they are increasingly engaging North Korea as an ally, and any day now their soldiers may appear on the battlefield fighting against Ukraine. Ukraine will be forced to actually fight against North Korea in Europe.

These are the conditions when the lack of partners’ stronger decisions in support of Ukraine only encourages Putin to invest further in terror. The world is capable of stopping the war from unfolding. Abstractions and words are not enough for this – concrete steps are needed.

We have provided all such steps in the Victory Plan. Something that will prevent further aggression by the culprits of the war. We expect the necessary increase in pressure on Russia. We expect more support for Ukraine. This will be only fair. And the time that passes while there are no decisions – unfortunately, this translates to constant Russian strikes and constant losses of our lives.

Next week will be the time of our very intense work with partners, first of all, to support our warriors, warriors at the front, and to implement our strategy of forcing Russia to end the war. We are preparing major signals of support.

Today, I want to highlight the efforts of our various people who work every day and night to defend Ukrainians from Russian strikes. Who provide assistance and always protect lives.

Dnipro: the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Dnipro region, and especially Yevhen Panchuk, Dmytro Sauliak, Dmytro Luchka, Oleksandr Tykva. Also, National Police officers Oleksii Skakun and Karyna Aliieva. Thank you and your colleagues!

Sumy and the region: Oleksandr Matviienko, Vitalii Kaplun, Yurii Kostiuk – these are employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the region. Also, police officers: Serhii Zarutskyi and Hennadii Tereshchenko. Thank you, guys!

Kherson region: rescuers Oleh Zasymenko, Kostiantyn Naboka, Dmytro Volkov and Mykola Katruk. As well as police captains – both serving in KORD – Dmytro Hmyria and Andriy Kotliuba. Thank you!

Kharkiv region: the guys who work in groups to evacuate people from danger zones, employees of the State Emergency Service – Volodymyr Zatirka, Yevhen Afoniv, Serhii Kachanenko. And the National Police of Ukraine: Serhii Huskov and Uliian Pihal. Thank you for your round-the-clock work and real service to people and Ukraine.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine, who stands with our people; every warrior. I thank those who defend our state, hold our Ukrainian positions and destroy the occupier with all their might! We must definitely defend Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Troyanivska Mariyka was killed by a russian drone yesterday in Kyiv.
She was only 15 and studied in the 9th grade. https://t.co/OE39jDY10W pic.twitter.com/WyDkU1v5H4

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 26, 2024

Here’s the full machine translated text of the quoted tweet:

Troyanivska Mariyka was killed by a Russian drone yesterday.

She was only 15, studied in the 9th grade of the “Prestige” lyceum of the Solomyansk district.

…a leader and inspiration for the entire Lyceum..

Our district, Kyiv, Ukraine and the world have lost their future.

Irreversible loss.
Condolences to the family and loved ones.

The reason:

Ukrainian symbols serve as talismans for our soldiers at the frontlines.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/lAdxAU6qMv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 25, 2024

I posted recently about this brave mother who waited for her son to return from Russian captivity.

Here is the moment of them finally meeting again after 30 months apart.

What they had to live through…

📹: ludafeduseva/TikTok https://t.co/Uikj6oS6sm pic.twitter.com/rMPtyd9tgi

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 26, 2024

Georgia:

The atmosphere at Georgia’s crucial elections, viewed by both sides as an existential choice, is highly tense. The ruling GD party frames it as a choice between war and peace, while the opposition sees it as a decision between a pro-European or pro-Russian path 1/7 pic.twitter.com/npPuQr6UB5

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

The elections are existential not only for the country as a whole but for the opposition too. If the ruling party wins, the main anti-GD force, United National Movement, faces the threat of being banned and likely prosecuted 3/7

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

Voter turnout is above 50%, higher than the last two elections but slightly below that in 2012, when the GD-led coalition ousted the previous parliament under Mikheil Saakashvili 5/7 pic.twitter.com/YR3oU03f1o

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

The pre-election polls are as polarised as the media landscape here. As a result, the opposition is convinced that the ruling party will not get more than 35%, while the GD itself is sure that it will with at least 60% percent. Confrontation seems almost inevitable 7/7

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

Hugely important vote this weekend in Georgia. My @FT colleagues @hallbenjamin @NastyaStognei wrote yesterday, ‘The country is holding elections that could decide whether it tilts towards Moscow or Brussels. Observers fear that violence may follow.’ Seems that violence is already… https://t.co/8xyvbx421q

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 26, 2024

Hugely important vote this weekend in Georgia. My @FT colleagues @hallbenjamin @NastyaStognei wrote yesterday, ‘The country is holding elections that could decide whether it tilts towards Moscow or Brussels. Observers fear that violence may follow.’ Seems that violence is already rearing its head. https://ft.com/content/8f9add86-863d-4d60-adfa-bc82382ed20d

The first preliminary results from Georgia have been released.

With 70% of precincts counted, the ruling Georgian Dream party gets 52.99% of the vote

The main opposition forces — the Coalition for Change and the UNM — receive 11.2% and 9.83%, respectively pic.twitter.com/kVvGVGZXo9

— Anastasia Stognei (@NastyaStognei) October 26, 2024

Polling stations have closed in Georgia.
Data from exit-polls is contradictory.
President Zourabichvili says the opposition has won, PM of Hungary Orban congratulates the “Georgian Dream” (current ruling party).

The situation in Georgia is rather tense.
According to polls,… https://t.co/Rx7BN1V3vd pic.twitter.com/TfRG4QpNgm

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 26, 2024

Polling stations have closed in Georgia.
Data from exit-polls is contradictory.
President Zourabichvili says the opposition has won, PM of Hungary Orban congratulates the “Georgian Dream” (current ruling party).

The situation in Georgia is rather tense.
According to polls, people’s moods are mixed and contradicting. While Georgians are afraid of a war with Russia (and the “Georgian Dreams” uses that to its advantage), most Georgians are pro-EU integration and, at the very least, do not want to lose their visa-free access to the Schengen Area.

Geopolitical stakes are very high:

If “Georgian Dream” remains in power, monumental changes in the Caucasus region cannot be ruled out.

The Kremlin has been hinting for quite some time that it can approve the return of South Ossetia and Abkhazia into Georgia with a special status and broad rights.
If that happens, Ivanishvili (head of “Georgian Dream”) will be able to announce the “restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity.”

Moscow is very keen on having a pro-Russian Georgian government. That would mean a key country in the Caucasus in the Russian sphere of influence. Crucial logistical routes go through there (e.g., the route of oil transport from the Caspian Sea into Turkey and Europe). It would also mean the possibility to restore railroad connection of Russia with Armenia, and then, all the way up to Iran. So that, in turn, would mean a direct land corridor between Russia and Iran.

Then, a transport corridor (North-South). Russia (North) – Caucasus – Iran – India – Sri Lanka. So, Georgia is a key element in Russia’s potential ability to influence India.

Tbilisi turning around would definitely influence Armenia’s geopolitical course – it will then be completely surrounded either by enemy countries (Azerbaijan and Turkey) or by Russia’s allies (Iran and Georgia).

But the most important consequence of pro-Russian powers winning in Georgia is that Russia would showcase itself as the only one able to guarantee security and territorial integrity of post-Soviet states. Even for those with whom it previously waged wars.

A lot of people fully realize how dangerous the victory of the “Russian world” would be, so the fight at the Georgian elections was intense. We will see how events will unfold.

We trust in the democratic Georgia. Waiting for official results.

📹: supporters of the ruling party in Georgia celebrate their victory

Things are not looking good in Georgia. Georgian Dream is an oligarch funded and run pro-Putin/pro-Russian political party. They have become increasingly unpopular and, in response, increasingly tyrannical. A chunk of Georgia has been occupied by Russia since August 2008. I have served with the Georgians in Iraq, but I honestly do not know what is going to happen if Georgian Dream remains in power, consolidates control, and cracks down further.

North Korea:

‘“We expect the troops will mainly be deployed in Kursk and consist of mainly special units from the North Korean army,” Brekelmans said, adding that the first deployment was a way for Russia to test the troops and to gauge international reaction.’ https://t.co/UMd2c4jl5U

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 25, 2024

The Cyprus Mail has the details:

Dutch intelligence has confirmed that Russia has deployed at least 1,500 troops from North Korea to fight in the Ukrainewar, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said Friday.

Moscow has not denied previous U.S. claims that North Korea had sent troops to Russia, a move that the West is casting as a significant escalation of the war.

“We expect the troops will mainly be deployed in Kursk and consist of mainly special units from the North Korean army,” Brekelmans said, adding that the first deployment was a way for Russia to test the troops and to gauge international reaction.

Kursk is a Russian city near the Ukrainian border where Ukrainian forces staged a major incursion in August.

Iran:

Major knock-on effect of Israeli strikes on Iran is that Iran won’t be able to supply Russia with new ballistic missiles for many months until it rebuilds its manufacturing capabilities

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) October 26, 2024

The EU:

“Officials briefed on the discussions say there is no possibility EU militaries could match what the US is providing” to Ukraine. https://t.co/RAzjyuvgkh Other things being equal, yes. But in longer term, Europeans have agency on defence spending, industry, etc.

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 25, 2024

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

EU capitals are racing to draw up assessments of the bloc’s biggest vulnerabilities if Donald Trump is re-elected to the White House, as polls suggest the contest is tilting in the former president’s favour.

Senior EU officials are holding daily meetings to outline where a Trump presidency could cause the most pain for the bloc, said people familiar with the talks.

They said topics under discussion included how to withstand a barrage of trade tariffs, offset an end to US aid to Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia if Washington lifts its restrictions.

“Everyone is taking everything much more seriously,” said one senior EU diplomat. “We are trying to make sure we will not be taken by surprise.”

The preparations include formal talks between EU ambassadors and the staff of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, as well as informal groups of senior EU diplomats considering possible strategies.

Trump has vowed to impose flat 10 per cent tariffs on all imports and is critical of US support for Kyiv and sceptical of Nato, which underpins Europe’s defence.

Polling suggests he is in a dead heat against vice-president Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 election, and has overtaken his Democratic rival as the candidate Americans trust most with the economy, according to a Financial Times poll released this week.

“In my personal point of view, we will be in trouble. Deep trouble,” another EU diplomat said of a Trump win. “This disruptive element will be huge, and the unpredictability will be huge.”

The biggest short-term security concern of EU officials is how to continue support to Ukraine if Trump cuts off a flow of weapons that has played a vital role in helping Kyiv thwart Russia’s invasion.

The EU has provided more financial support to Ukraine than the US. But American weapons stockpiles and capabilities are far larger than European countries’. Officials briefed on the discussions say there is no possibility EU militaries could match what the US is providing.

Officials in the bloc are also deeply concerned that a Trump administration would lift sanctions on Russia. That would raise the question of how much economic pressure the EU could maintain on Moscow without US support, even if Japan, the UK and other allies kept sanctions in place.

Trump’s scepticism towards Nato has also exacerbated long-running fears about European reliance on US security guarantees.

“Right now we are arguing amongst ourselves about how to raise €100bn for defence and whether we really need to,” said another EU diplomat, referring to the bloc’s debate about a joint debt issue. “If Trump wins, we’ll instead be talking about €1tn and it won’t be optional.”

The EU talks to prepare for a possible Trump return to the White House have intensified over the past month. They follow von der Leyen’s decision this year to form a small in-house war room to prepare for the US election result, focused mainly on trade and security issues.

More at the link.

Ukraine’s air defense is doing yeoman’s work, but air defense is never perfect:

Russia launched a total of 11,466 missiles at Ukraine between Sept. 2022 and Sept. 2024: an average of over 23 missiles launched daily, per @CSIS. (Ukraine, interestingly, has intercepted 79.8 percent of those) https://t.co/vePyG60Npa

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) October 25, 2024

From CSIS:

Ukraine is under siege from Russian firepower strikes and needs additional Western military aid, expanded sanctions against Moscow’s allies, intelligence support, and long-range strike authorization to defend its citizens.

From September 28, 2022, to September 1, 2024, Russia launched a total of 11,466 missiles. On average, 23.2 missiles were launched daily, with the median number of daily launches recorded at 17 missiles. This indicates that while the daily launch rate typically hovered around the mid-20s, there were numerous days with significantly higher activity. Notably, there were 17 days during the study period when missile launches exceeded 82 missiles in a single day. These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives, or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of heightened conflict intensity.

This analysis is based on data compiled by Petro Ivaniuk. The dataset is available at Kaggle. CSIS has verified that the data aligns with the official numbers published by Ukraine’s Air Force social media accounts. The analysis in this paper covers the period from September 2022 to September 2024.

The data reveals that the daily intercept rate averaged 83.5 percent, with the median intercept rate reaching 88.5 percent. This high level of intercept efficiency suggests the deployment of advanced missile defense technologies capable of neutralizing a substantial portion of incoming threats on most days. When evaluating the overall intercept rate across the entire study period, it stands at 79.8 percent. This aggregated figure, which is the total intercept rate of the launched missiles, while slightly lower than the daily averages, demonstrates that Ukraine has been successful at defending its skies, both due to Western support and indigenous programs like the acoustic air defense network.

The analysis of missile deployment during the Russia-Ukraine war reveals a significant diversity in the types of missile models employed by Russian forces. The dataset encompasses 52 distinct missile model entries, which include both individual models and combinations of multiple models. This diversity underscores the multifaceted offensive capabilities and strategic flexibility maintained throughout the conflict. While the dataset lists 52 missile model entries, many entries represent combinations of multiple models. After deconstructing these combinations, there are 36 unique missile models identified. This diversity reflects an operational approach to firepower strikes of combining different models like long-range attack drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles to complicate the ability of Ukraine to defend its skies. Of note, many of these unique combinations were launched from different geographic sites further complicating air defense.

Much more at the link.

Selydove:

Updated map showing further Russian advances in Selydove, north of Vuhledar, and north of Zolota Nyva. https://t.co/kRsB0C3n7e https://t.co/1MwmenCOSc pic.twitter.com/qVrjtC0OFL

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 26, 2024

The Kerch Strait:

/2. Russian helicopter which crashed in the Kerch Strait likely was a Mi-28. pic.twitter.com/mcgnj6x9oa

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 26, 2024

Kyiv:

Barbaric Russian attack on Ukraine tonight kills two children and two women. Yet some still buy into Russia’s ‘guardian of Christianity’ lies. pic.twitter.com/qbDOqTMBQd

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 26, 2024

Dnipro:

“That’s it, Yulia, dear, we saved you!” – Ukrainian rescuers’ gentle words as they pulled a young woman from rubble in Dnipro. Their voices kept her conscious through the rescue.

But the same Russian missile strike killed 3 others, including a child. pic.twitter.com/BYRBx8Fu35

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 26, 2024

The death toll in Dnipro has risen to 5 following yesterday’s russian attack on the city. https://t.co/5bJYVGI7x6 pic.twitter.com/YAhZmYgOMq

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 26, 2024

Lyptsi:

Lyptsi is a village in the #Kharkiv region that has borne many scars from Russia’s constant shelling.

This is the local hospital, which was patching up blast-damaged windows in November 2023, but now stands half-destroyed. pic.twitter.com/x1keE3kR8j

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) October 25, 2024

Ryazan, Russia:

russian oil refinery in Ryazan seems to be having a party 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3qPcY1zchE

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 26, 2024

Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack and a fire in the area of Ryazan oil refinery.

This oil refinery can process over 17 million tons of oil per year. It is the third most powerful oil refinery in Russia.

Waiting for more information. pic.twitter.com/V0jrU0Y1rK

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 26, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.

☺️ pic.twitter.com/wEH92Rr6dj

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) October 23, 2024

😎 pic.twitter.com/1bv8NMWKfZ

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) October 23, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 976: Odesa Under AttackPost + Comments (12)

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