We’re back! I took a few days to continue to recuperate from my sinus infection and I wanted to give everyone the weekend to process and work through the events of the end of last week, so that’s where I’ve been.
I’m going to ease back into things tonight and just cover the basics including the attack on the shopping center today.
Let’s start with President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below with English language transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)
This address is without greetings.
Today’s Russian strike at a shopping mall in Kremenchuk is one of the most defiant terrorist attacks in European history. A peaceful city, an ordinary shopping mall with women, children, ordinary civilians inside… Before the air alarm there were about a thousand people. Fortunately, as far as we know at this time, many people managed to get out in time. They were taken out in time. But there were still people inside: staff, some visitors…
Only totally insane terrorists, who should have no place on earth, can strike missiles at such an object. And this is not an off-target missile strike, this is a calculated Russian strike – exactly at this shopping mall.
It is not yet possible to establish the number of victims for now. A fire broke out in an area of more than 10 thousand square meters. The rescue operation continues, but we must be aware that the losses may be significant. As of now, we know about 12 dead and 24 wounded. We are establishing the number of people under the rubble.
All the wounded will be provided with all the necessary assistance – Kyiv doctors have already left for Kremenchuk. The Minister of Internal Affairs is already there, he will coordinate all the necessary actions.
My condolences to the families and friends of those killed in this terrible terrorist attack.
And I ask each and every one – whenever you hear the air alarm siren, go to the shelter. Necessarily. Don’t ignore it. Russia will stop at nothing.
This morning, I appealed to the United States to recognize Russia as a state that sponsors terrorism. The relevant resolution is approved by the US Senate Committee, and the legal decision can be adopted by the Department of State. And such a decision is clearly needed, and it must be supported by the entire democratic world. I told this to the participants of the G7 Summit, which took place in Germany.
As of today, Russia has used almost 2,800 different cruise missiles against Ukraine. The number of air bombs and MLRS rockets hitting our cities simply cannot be counted. There were hundreds of thousands of them in the four months of the war. This is nothing but terror.
Another brutal shelling of Kharkiv, northern Saltivka took place today. At present, we know about 5 people killed and more than 30 wounded, 5 of them children. All are civilians, no military.
The Russian state has become the largest terrorist organization in the world. And this is a fact. And this must be a legal fact. And everyone in the world must know that buying or transporting Russian oil, maintaining contacts with Russian banks, paying taxes and customs duties to the Russian state means giving money to terrorists.
I also said today, addressing the leaders of the G7, that our common potential is absolutely enough to defeat the Russian army – it does not know how to fight. All the operations we carry out to deoccupy our territories show one thing: the occupiers are crumbling when we have something to put pressure on them. They do not know how to resist. They are capable only of such vile strikes as those in Kremenchuk or Saltivka today, only of the total thoughtless destruction of all living things as in Mariupol. Therefore, the war may not drag on, if we can really push together and drive the occupiers out of our Ukrainian land. The sooner this happens, the more lives will be saved.
Even before the start of a full-scale war, we told our partners that we needed modern missile defense. We repeated this after February 24 as well. People in the Kremenchuk shopping mall deserved security just as much as people in any mall in the world – somewhere in Philadelphia or Tel Aviv, or in a shopping gallery somewhere in Dresden. The world can, and therefore must, stop Russian terror. And now I can already say this – I heard it from our partners: Ukraine must get reliable missile defense, we are expecting the supply of appropriate systems.
And there is another important result of the “seven”, which is worth mentioning right now. This has already been officially agreed: the most powerful democracies in the world will support our state as long as necessary for our victory.
Ukraine will not be broken! Never.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD: (emphasis mine)
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on June 27, 2022
The one hundred twenty fourth (124) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian occupiers continue to launch missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine. Today, in Kremenchuh, Poltava oblast, russian rocket hit a shopping center where civilians were staying. The number of victims is currently unknown. Rescue operations are underway.
Demonstrative and provocative actions by units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus in the areas bordering Ukraine are not ruled out in the Volyn and Polissya areas, as well as intensification of intelligence to clarify the positions and nature of our troops.
Air and missile strikes from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus are expected to continue. Once again, we urge you not to ignore air alarm signals.
In the Siversky direction, units of the Armed Forces of the russian federation continue to be located in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions in order to restrain the actions of units of the Defense Forces. The enemy fired mortars near Pokrovka and Starykovo, Sumy oblast. The enemy also used jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Porozok and Verkhnya Pozhnya, Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy is defending previously occupied positions, trying to prevent the advance of units of the Defense Forces and their entry to the state border of Ukraine in the north of Kharkiv region. Intelligence is trying to find weaknesses in the defense of our troops.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy, in order to regain lost ground, tried to carry out assault operations in the area of the settlement of Dementievka, had no success, withdrew. Also, Ukrainian soldiers successfully repulsed enemy assaults in the direction of Dovhalivka and Zalyman.
The occupiers are taking measures to quickly disguise and try to mislead our units, for which they are installing wooden models of tanks on the defensive positions.
In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy is trying to improve its tactical position and create favorable conditions for the attack on the settlements of Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Continues shelling.
Trying to take control of Mazanivka, the enemy launched an offensive from the area of the village of Dovhenke. It received a strong rebuff from the Ukrainian defenders and withdrew with losses.
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy continues to focus on attempts to surround the Defense Forces near the city of Lysychansk, trying to blockade the city from the south and southwest. Takes measures to replenish the loss of personnel, weapons and military equipment.
The enemy did not take active action in the Kramatorsk direction.
Mortar and artillery shelling was recorded in the Lysychansk direction in the areas of the settlements of Lysychansk, Verkhnokamyanka and Soledar.
The enemy led the offensive in the direction of Vovchoyarivka – Verkhnokamyanka, has partial success, is consolidated south of the Lysychansk refinery. To distract the efforts of our troops, he led the offensive in the direction of Pidlisne – Lysychansk, had no success, withdrew.
In the Bakhmut direction, it fires artillery of various calibers in the areas of the settlements of Berestove, Klynove, Bakhmut, Vershina and Travneve.
Our soldiers successfully stopped the enemy’s reconnaissance attempt by fighting in the area of Berestovo and the offensive in the direction of Midna Ruda – Klynove. In both cases, the occupiers withdrew.
The enemy has partial success in the direction of the Roty – Vershyna, trying to gain a foothold at the intersection of the E-40 highway.
In the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv and Zaporizhzhia directions, in order to restrain the actions of our troops and prevent their transfer to other directions, the enemy fired mortars, tanks, barrel artillery and jet artillery at the areas of the settlements of Pisky, Avdiivka, Katerynivka, Chervone and Malynivka. It struck an air strike near Krasnohorivka.
Ukrainian soldiers stopped the occupiers’ offensive in the direction of Petrivske-Shevchenko and pushed the enemy back.
In the South Buh direction, the aggressor continued to fire at the positions of our troops with mortars, tanks, barrel artillery and jet artillery along the entire line of contact. It is possible that the enemy will carry out assault operations in certain areas in order to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson region.
In readiness to launch missile strikes on objects on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy holds two carriers of cruise missiles of the naval base “Caliber”.
Our units continue to successfully carry out missile and artillery fire missions in certain areas and inflict casualties on the occupiers in close combat.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
A lot to unpack there. The first is that despite all of Russia’s efforts – all the probing and the shelling – they’re not making much ground. As the DOD Senior Defense Official stated in his background briefing on 24 June: (emphasis mine)
So first, because it’s kind of out there in the news today, I wanted to just give you my quick take on what we’re seeing on the battlefield, and then secondly, a few highlights on security assistance.
So I just want to put into context what we’re seeing in Severodonetsk in terms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ managed retrograde from that location. And the context that I want to share is just, when you look at the sweep of the past four months, obviously we’ve seen Russia having to, you know, completely recalibrate its plans, because its initial plans were overly ambitious and mismanaged, going from their multi-axis attempt that was defeated by the Ukrainians to now, a focus on Eastern Ukraine. And really, the Russians are just eking out inch by inch of territory here.
More on Sievierodonetsk in a minute or two, but let’s focus on this. What the Pentagon is assessing is that the Russians are just not getting very much out of their efforts. They have almost nothing to show for all the men and material that have been chewed up over the past four months.
Liz Sly at The Washington Post has reported that the Russian military is, as we say in the US military, just about out of Schlitz!
The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.
“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.The assessments come despite continued Russian advances against outgunned Ukrainian forces, including the capture on Friday of the city of Severodonetsk, the biggest urban center taken by Russia in the east since launching the latest Donbas offensive nearly three months ago.
The assessments come despite continued Russian advances against outgunned Ukrainian forces, including the capture on Friday of the city of Severodonetsk, the biggest urban center taken by Russia in the east since launching the latest Donbas offensive nearly three months ago.
The Russians are now closing in on the adjacent city of Lysychansk, on the opposite bank of the Donets River. The town’s capture would give Russia almost complete control of the Luhansk oblast, one of two oblasts, or provinces, that make up the Donbas region. Control of Donbas is the publicly declared goal of Russia’s “special military operation,” although the multifront invasion launched in February made it clear that Moscow’s original ambitions were far broader.
Capturing Lysychansk presents a challenge because it stands on higher ground and the Donets River impedes Russian advances from the east. So instead, Russian troops appear intent on encircling the city from the west, pressing southeast from Izyum and northeast from Popasna on the western bank of the river.
According to chatter on Russian Telegram channels and Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, the Russian military is under pressure to bring all of Luhansk under Russian control by Sunday, perhaps explaining the heightened momentum of the past week.
But the “creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official.
Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said.
Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments, indicated this week that Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the “next few months.” After that, “Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.
Russian commentators are also noting the challenges, emphasizing a chronic shortage of manpower. “Russia does not have enough physical strength in the zone of the special military operation in Ukraine … taking into account the almost one thousand kilometer (or more) line of confrontation,” wrote Russian military blogger Yuri Kotyenok on his Telegram account. He estimated that Russia would need 500,000 troops to attain its goals, which would only be possible with a large-scale mobilization, a potentially risky and unpopular move that President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from undertaking.
Much, much more at the link!
This does not mean that Ukraine is cruising to an easy victory. Russia is not spent, it still has a lot of artillery and missiles it can launch and bombs that it can drop on Ukraine. And it hasn’t even really tried tapping into its huge population to reconstitute its forces. Regardless of whether that would be a good political move for Putin or not.
As for Sievierodonetsk, as the Senior Defense Official indicated, the Ukrainians spent the past several days undertaking a retreat our of Sievierodonetsk, back across the river, and to their position on the high ground at Lysychansk. My understanding from the reporting is that the Ukrainians had determined they’d achieved their goals of slowing the Russians down, bottling them up, and attriting their forces and equipment in Sievierodonetsk. As such it was no longer worth continuing to fight there and a retreat out of town and across the river was undertaken and accomplished. Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s latest map and analysis, from yesterday, on the battle for Sievierodonetsk:
SIEVRODONETSK /1750 UTC 26 JUN/ The battle for the city is concluded. RU forces are now consolidating control of what is, for all purposes, a destroyed city. UKR forces have withdrawn to a solid defensive line conforming to the west bank of the Donets River. See Assessment. pic.twitter.com/DdS2ZQuVGq
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 26, 2022
Here is today’s British MOD assessment:
And here’s their updated map for today:
As you can see, as we’ve been saying over and over, and as confirmed by the SDO on the 24th, there just isn’t a lot of movement in the macro sense of the theater of operations.
Here’s today’s background briefing from the DOD: (emphasis mine)
STAFF: All right, hey, good morning, everybody. This is (Edited) from Defense Press Ops. I’m glad we’re able to do this this morning. It’s been a while since we’ve done one of these.
Just as a reminder, this is a background brief. Your subject matter expert today will be referred to as “a senior defense official”, and for your informational purposes, that senior defense official is (Edited). He’ll give a brief opener, and then we’ll go to Q&A.
We do have a 30-minute cap on the Q&A today, so we’ll have to stick with that. I apologize. We may not be able to get to everybody, but we’ll move as quickly as we can.
And with that, sir, I’ll turn it over to you.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thanks. Well, first of all, good morning to everyone. All right, I’m going to — this is going to get you all sharpened up, but I’m going to tell you, I’ve been on the job now for about two weeks, so I hope you’ll forgive any of my misunderstandings just up front, but I would tell you that I’ve been on the Joint Staff before: left here a couple years ago and in between, was serving in a job that had me in Europe for the last three months, deployed as a part of operations forward. So I do feel pretty comfortable talking about what’s going on overseas and I look forward to our conversations today.
I think you’re all aware it’s the hundredth — 124th day of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. As you’ve likely observed on social media, Ukrainians are noting now that they do have HIMARS in their country. I won’t go into any particular details this morning, but all indications are that they are employing them very well. We’re continuing to work diligently to get the additional four HIMARS in the country that were announced in last week’s PDA. And also of note, the second round of HIMARS training should coincide with that, as well, and we expect that to be done here in the near future. And again, I’m happy to talk about that training and other training that we’re conducting with our partners and with the Ukrainians.
Over the weekend, I know you’re also aware of the Russian-executed 60 missile strikes across the country in Kyiv, Lviv, Chernihiv and Odesa. We’re not quite sure about the Russian objectives of the strikes. They certainly could be a protest against the G7, or of the arrival of HIMARS in country. We do know, and I think all of you have reported to some extent the impact of civilian casualties in Kyiv in particular against apartment buildings that were in vicinity of that strike, or the intended location of that strike. Again, not unusual to hear of civilian casualties associated with Russian strikes, sadly.
In the Donbas, we haven’t observed any real additional further movement out of Severodonetsk or through Severodonetsk by the Russians. We have seen Russian gains. Those gains, as many of you have been reporting, in that portion of the battlespace are occurring (inaudible), and I’m happy to talk a little bit about that, but it does not appear that they have encircled Lysychansk, and the Ukrainians are fighting very well, or very hard in — in that part of the battlespace.
And then, as has been mentioned in open source, we’re also aware of several reliefs of Russian generals in Ukraine. I’ll leave all the particulars of that to the Russian MOD spokesman, but we do continue to see concerns with that leadership or — and continued morale concerns with Russian forces.
Near Kherson in the south, we’re aware of growing indications of resistance against the Russian occupation. Over the last several days we’ve become aware of assassinations of local Russian officials, and we’re also aware that reporting suggests the Ukrainians have been successful in liberating several small towns northwest and west of Kherson, showing that despite tactical success by the Russians, they continue to hold on to what they capture to territory and prevent it from falling into Russian hands.
The last thing I’d say before I open it up is, you know, we are continuing to work our security assistance and moving heaven and earth to get that assistance forward to the Ukrainians as fast as we can, and I think what you’re seeing on the battlefield is that the Ukrainians are making good use of not just our assistance, but systems that they’re obtaining from our partners and allies around the world.
So I will hold there and look forward to your questions.
STAFF: All right. We’ll go ahead. We’ll start with Lita, AP.
Q: Morning. Thank you. Thanks, (SDO), for doing this.
I was wondering if you could talk to us a little bit about the new medium to long range missile systems, the NASAMS that are going to be going to Ukraine. Like what additional capabilities that will give them and how long it may take to get them, how many? Just how that might impact the battlespace from your view? And one quick other thing just on this sort of broader, you said you weren’t sure — the U.S. isn’t sure why there was suddenly Odesa and all the other broader strikes, is there any — is there any suggestion that there is an effort by Russia to change its focus or would it be just some statements do you think?
Thank you.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Let me — so on the HIMARS, so the — I think what we’re finding, and I don’t want to draw a correlation between the HIMARS and the rocket strikes or the missile strikes that we talked about in the second part of your comment there, you know, as I mentioned, we have not received indications that the strikes by the Russians are associated with the entry of the HIMARS or of anything else, quite honestly. And what I couldn’t tell you is if that is part of their larger — you know, their larger portion of the offensive or not. So I don’t want to connect it too.
And then the question about the air defense systems. I think you probably saw that the national security adviser talked about the air defense system. That’s certainly something that we’re looking at, is the way to help Ukrainians with additional air defense assets. I don’t have the particulars associated with the systems. But as soon as we know that and as soon as those are finalized, we will certainly work to provide you with those details and the particulars of the systems that we’re employing.
STAFF: All right. We’ll go to Dan Lamothe, Washington Post.
Q: Hey, good morning. Thanks for your time today.
Wanted to ask about these strikes, mostly by way of what you think they may be targeting, you know, that the — what weapons deliveries are obviously getting spread out across the country, there is some sense the depots are being at least targeted. Have you seen anything hit in terms of depots? And do you get the sense that that at least an aim here?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thanks for your question, Dan.
Well, first of all, I’d say, you know, we — you know, we are apathetic, if that’s the right term in terms of the targeting. What I mean by that is, the Ukrainians are determining the targets that they shoot at. So we have provided the systems to the Ukrainians. They were pretty amazing in their training and have been in all sorts of training that’s going on outside the country. And then based on that, they’re determining the targets that they need to hit. This is their fight. And they’re doing that.
I don’t have particulars related to the targets that they’ve struck, but I know that if they were to employ them, they would employ them like we would in some cases against command-and-control or logistics, large concentrations of troops, that types of thing. But don’t have the particulars about how they’re targeting in this situation.
Q: I’m sorry, just to be clear, I was asking about whether there is an assessment that the Russians are trying to hit Ukrainian depots.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: That’s a whole different question that I answered incomplete, or incorrectly. And I don’t have that.
So, we are seeing that they are trying to hit targets — as an example, the target that resulted in the civilian casualties over the weekend, that target, those apartments were adjacent to or near a factory that we know constructs munitions for the Ukrainians. So it does give an indication that in that case in particular they were trying to hit a military target. I don’t have evidence that they’re trying to hit other logistic support areas at this time.
Sorry about the mess-up on that, Dan.
Q: No problem. Thanks.
STAFF: All right, we’ll go to David Martin, CBS.
Q: Could you give your latest assessment on the two opposing sides’ ability to sustain operations? Are the — you hear absolutely conflicting opinions that the Russians can only keep this up for a couple more months or that the Russians can keep this up forever. What is — what was the assessment from the Pentagon?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, sure. The — first of all I would tell you — I mean, if you just look on paper — if you just look on paper, the Russians certainly have an advantage that relates to munitions systems and likely total numbers of troops that they can put on the field.
What’s much harder to gain an understanding of is the will of the Ukrainian fighter. And I think, you know, and I know you all have reported on this extensively as well, but if you go back to the very beginnings the Ukrainian fighter has demonstrated an ability to win in a level of adversity that is just surprising in many cases.
With that in mind, I’d be hazard to give you any kind of timetable associated with either sides’ ability to press, and just because I think it has surprised the world time and time again.
I do know this: The Russians can stop any time they want. The Russians are the ones that instigated this. The Russians are the one that attacked a sovereign nation. And so, at any time they could opt to stop and head back. I imagine that, you know, that won’t necessarily be the exact thing we see, but that’s certainly their possibility.
Q: Let me ask you more specifically then with Severodonetsk. Are they going to be able to exploit that or do they now have to stop and regroup?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: That’s a great question.
I think — you know, so they certainly wanted Severodonetsk. What’s — you know, from a military perspective, what I would tell you is the small number of Ukrainians that held the Russians at Severodonetsk for as long as they did is really something I think we’ll probably all study in the future.
And when they chose to leave Severodonetsk, they chose to do it of their own accord, and to give that up in order to move to better-prepared locations for the continuing of that defense. And so, again, I’m telling you I think we’ll end up studying that in our army in years to come. I think they’re going to do that throughout that portion of the battlespace or the battlefield.
You know, if you look at that spot, it’s not very big. And what I mean by that is the area that the Russians and the Ukrainians are fighting over right now and that the Russians are losing a large number of people to gain, the Ukrainians are making them pay for a very small piece of ground.
In most cases, the Ukrainians are leaving those locations of their accord, not necessarily because the Russians have made them do but because they are choosing to move to positions of greater advantage. And the cost is pretty significant for the Russians. I think we’ll see that continue.
It is important, though, when you look at the map to realize the size of that general area is not huge. I think and this is — I haven’t put this on a map, but I think the entire area we’re talking about is something like from D.C. to Fairfax for those who live in this area. So not very big.
The way it’s being described in some circles you would think that it was here to Richmond or here to Norfolk, but that’s not the case. And again, the Ukrainians are holding that at pretty extensive cost for the Russians.
STAFF: All right, we’ll go to Idrees with Reuters.
Q: Can I just try that question once more? So there was basically a Washington Post story over the weekend citing Western intelligence, saying that Russia would exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to stop its offensive in the east. Do you have any intel product that says their combat capabilities are near to being exhausted and they’ll have to stop their offensive?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I don’t have those particulars to be able to talk to any real knowledge here. I’m sorry.
Q: That works. Thank you.
STAFF: All right, we’ll go to Jack Detsch, F.P.
Q: Sort of on a similar line, U.K. intelligence this morning said that Russia’s likely to start leaning more heavily on reserve forces, echelons of reserve forces in the Donbas. Just wondering if you’ve seen sort of any mobilization of those sorts of forces perhaps from the army combat reserves or from other echelons of Russian forces.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I know that the Russians have employed reserves over the last month or so. The fact that the Russians are talking about reserves speaks to the impact the Ukrainians are taking on the Russian army. And again, going back to our earlier discussion about, you know, initial indications about how the Russians might perform or the Ukrainians might do so, the fact that there continue to be reports and conversations about Russians using reserve speaks to the impact that the Ukrainians are having against their army.
STAFF: All right, we’ll go to Mike Glenn.
Q: Yes. Thank you (SDO).
With the high number of combat casualties, there have been some reports that the Russians are really having to scrape the bottom of the barrel for their senior leadership, including calling up retired officers back to the active duty. I’m wondering if can you all confirm that they’re really digging for senior leaders because of all the casualties they’ve suffered.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: You know, I think I’ve seen some of the same open press you have. I have not seen any particulars in our circles here, but I’ve seen the same open-source reports.
You know, given the way and per my earlier comments about general officers being replaced, it would make sense that they will start to run shy of senior leaders. And so, I think there’s probably some veracity to those reports. I just don’t have any particular evidence myself.
Q: Okay, thanks.
STAFF: All right, we’ll got to Nick, PBS, Nick Schifrin.
Q: Thanks, (SDO). Thank you very much.
Can we go back to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk a little bit? I know you’re trying to describe the physical area that it is, but as you know politically Severodonetsk became important because Russian separatists seized the administrative capital of Luhansk and Severodonetsk became Ukrainian-held, essentially, political capital of the Oblast. So can you talk about the significance of the fall of Severodonetsk from a little bit more strategic perspective, and the risk to Lysychansk that is posed today?
And then I know Lita asked about NASAMS. I know, even if you don’t want to specify the platform, could you just talk about the requests that Ukraine is asking for when it comes air defense? Can you talk about what you understand the air defense requirement is today, and in general, how the U.S. is trying to help that?
Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure, Nick. I appreciate the question.
I should probably clarify the criticality of ground. If I’m a Ukrainian, every foot of Ukrainian soil I give up is pretty important to me. And so I don’t want to — I don’t want to underestimate the impact of losing ground to the Ukrainians. I think, you know, similarly to Mariupol, I think there was a great deal of symbolism in Severodonetsk for many of the reasons you just stated.
I think it’s also important — and I’m not, you know, wearing a Ukrainian uniform or a member of the Ukrainian government certainly, but I think what you’ll be able to see is the Ukrainians kind of rally around the fight that they gave the Russians in Severodonetsk. And so although they gave up ground, I think they did so by extracting a pretty significant cost against the Russians. The fact that, you know, in the end, several hundred Ukrainians continue to hold off the Russian Army in that part of the world in a — a pretty significant fight. It speaks again to the veracity — or not the veracity, but the tenacity of the Ukrainian soldier and their leadership.
The — back to the air defense question, the Ukrainians have asked for additional air support — defense support. I know that the Ukrainians are looking for air defense in all sorts of ways, so — from helicopters and airplanes, as well as missiles. And so we are working with the Ukrainians through all of our sources and with our partners and allies to provide them with the systems that they ask for that get after those needs.
Believe it or not, there is still a lot more Q&A at the link!
If you’re wondering what bottom of the barrel for Russian senior military leaders looks like, this is it:
After losing all of his top generals and commanders in the war with Ukraine, Putin calls General Pavel out of retirement to lead the Russian invasion. He weighs nearly 300 pounds now, intelligence officials say Putin is “scraping the bottom of the barrel”. pic.twitter.com/AMoMTfoZ3F
— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) June 26, 2022
This morning Ukrainian Forces carried out another strike on Russian positions on Snake Island!
Another strike of the #UAarmy on the russian troops on Snake Island. The occupiers lost an anti-aircraft system Pantsir (SA-22 Greyhound). The cleaning of our land will continue as long as needed. pic.twitter.com/WpXbUrOICH
— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 27, 2022
Unfortunately, and as you saw referenced in both President Zelenskyy’s address and the Ukrainian MOD’s update, the Russians launched a cruise missile strike on a shopping mall earlier today.
"More than 1,000 civilians were in the #Kremenchuk shopping center at the time of the Russian missile strike. "The mall is on fire, rescue teams are fighting the fire, the number of victims is impossible to imagine," – President Zelensky#RussianWarCrimes pic.twitter.com/9eFg3KJjDM
— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) June 27, 2022
Shopping mall in Kremenchuk after today's russian attack.
So far, 10 people are reported dead, and at least 40 wounded.#RussianWarCrimes pic.twitter.com/lS71eCGYP8— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) June 27, 2022
Ukraine said it feared scores of civilians might be dead or injured after a Russian missile strike hit a crowded shopping mall in the center of the country Monday.
More than 1,000 people were inside at the time of the rocket attack, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
“The number of victims is impossible to imagine,” he added in a post on the Telegram messaging app, sharing video that showed plumes of gray smoke rising above a building that was consumed in flames as people and first responders ran in front of it.
The apparent attack hit a shopping center in Kremenchuk, a city in the Poltava region on the banks of Ukraine’s Dnieper River. Dmytro Lunin, head of the Poltava region, said at least 13 people were killed and more than 40 others were injured.
“It is too early to talk about the final number of the killed,” he said as night fell in Ukraine.
Standing inside the smoking rubble of what was once a supermarket, Anton Herashchenko, an adviser for the Ministry of Internal Affairs, said rescuers were digging through what remained of the roof to find potential survivors.
“Rescue workers are underway to save people who just came to buy groceries,” he said, lifting the camera to show dozens of people frantically shoveling and sawing in to the blackened debris.
The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that the missiles were fired from long-range bombers that took off from a Russian air base north of Ukraine.
NBC News has not verified that claim or the number of any deaths. The Russian Embassy in the United States did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Ukrainian claims.
Much more at the link, including Russia’s odious claims that this was a false flag attack carried out by the Ukrainians on their own people as provocation against Russia. Which is, of course, a lie!
I think that’s enough for our first night back.
Your daily Patron!
Demining dog Patron showed the subscribers a new fit – a stylish white & blue vyshyvanka.
"Honestly, I don't like to wear anything but my work vest and Vyshyvanka." https://t.co/VNh76co9Py pic.twitter.com/t0GsYshR5A
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 27, 2022
Styling and profiling!
And here, from Patron’s official TikTok, is Patron engaged in the most serious fight of any war: fighting to stay awake during a briefing!
@patron__dsns Ну заснув в прямому ефірі, з ким не буває :( #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
Open thread!
Steeplejack
General Pavel is way over 300 pounds, unless he’s four feet tall. Trump is close to 300 pounds.
JaySinWA
@Steeplejack: Tsk Tsk, fat shaming. I’m sure he’s fit as a fiddle. In fighting trim.
Another Scott
Latest number are 16 confirmed dead, 49 wounded (e.g. KyivIndependent, AlJazeera).
:-(
Grrr…,
Scott.
Andrya
Adam, thank Goodness you are back, and I’m so glad you are well enough to post. My entire social network (family and friends) is dependent on your posts to keep up on what we can best do to help Ukraine. (Although the biggest thing is- ELECT DEMOCRATS! I am absolutely terrified that Republican victories in 2022/2024 would result in the US abandoning Ukraine.)
I do have one question- for Adam, Gin & Tonic, or anyone. What is going on in putin’s brain? I’m thinking of the statement in the US Declaration of Independence- “a decent respect to the opinions of mankind”. Even Stalin put up a pretense (for example, blaming the Germans for the Kaytyn massacre). Putin is acting like a cartoon villain in a very bad, very cheap 1960s comic book. (“Moo ha ha! I’m going to kill all the children in kindergarten!”) Why on earth doesn’t he even fake being a responsible head of state?
Ohio Mom
@Steeplejack: Forget the weight, look at the face he’s making. He does not happy to be back in uniform.
On another note, I can see why the Western world is playing it cool but it seems to me that eventually Russia will need to feel a lot more pushback than Ukraine can manage on its own, even if given all the weapons it desires.
Having a giant terrorist nation (I don’t think that’s an exaggeration) is something the world can’t tolerate. Today a shopping mall in a Ukraine town, some time in the future, who knows where.
SpaceUnit
Zelenskyy is right. Attacking a shopping mall is not an act of war. It is an act of terrorism.
At some point Putin needs to get the Bin Laden treatment.
ETA: And as for that general, Ukrainians should booby-trap a donut shop.
dmsilev
@Steeplejack: Relatedly,
Maybe ‘thousands of tons of high-ranking Russian commanders’ aren’t all that many people?
Gin & Tonic
@Steeplejack: Hold on, I have it on very good authority that Donald Trump is a fit 239 pounds.
Alison Rose
God, I cried already earlier when I saw the news about the mall, and again now watching Zelenskyy’s address. He is absolutely right: russia is a fucking terrorist state. (Something my mother got a 48-hour ban on FB for saying in a comment on my post about the attack on the mall. Fuck you too, Zuck.)
I can’t imagine what all of this is doing to the psyche of the Ukrainian people, living through this hell practically on their own for so long, with no way to know when it might end. Especially children. Once russia has finally been kicked the fuck out and Ukraine is able to begin the long process of rebuilding, that’s going to have to include a massive mental health effort, too.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Alison Rose
@Steeplejack: Yeah, I mean. I don’t like to body shame, but um. Yeah.
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya: Putin believes that “Ukrainian” is not a legitimate nationality, and therefore that Ukraine is not a legitimate nation, so it should not exist. This, unfortunately, is a majority view in russia, and has been so for centuries. To them, Ukrainians are just misguided russians who are deluded by “the West” into thinking that they are an independent nationality. If they will not willingly assimilate, then they must be destroyed.
Spanky
He is the barrel.
Steeplejack
@Alison Rose :
I’m not body-shaming anybody. I’m talking about basic journalistic accuracy. I know a good number of middle-aged, out-of-shape men who go 250-280 pounds (at least), and hanging a couple of extra 20-pound sandbags on them wouldn’t get them close to Pavel’s shape. (Cf. any number of aging ex-NFL players.)
Andrya
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for your answer, and I am also grateful for your knowledge/insights throughout this discussion. I am still puzzled: surely putin knows that the rest of the world does not buy into his weird view of Ukraine. What’s the point of bombing hospitals and shopping malls? Why doesn’t he see that this makes russia odious, on a par with Nazi Germany, Radio Rwanda, and Idi Amin?
Captain C
General Pavel looks like an offensive lineman gone to seed, one who probably lasted a few years longer in the pros than he should have due to the fact that he was…involved…with the coach’s niece. I think we’ve reached the equivalent of Poe’s Law in this conflict, because I can’t tell if he’s for real or just a parody written around a photo of a large dude in military gear.
This was a nice parody of the poor General’s pic
(ETA-that’s a link to a tweet)
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I wonder, and maybe there’s no way to know, but I wonder if russian citizens believe it mainly because Putin does, and because it’s something they’ve been fed for years and years so they’re just like “Yeah okay” or if it’s a deeply-seated belief for them, too. Or if it’s even possible to pull the wool from their eyes. From my experience now with Trump cultists, I fear it is not.
Alison Rose
@Andrya: Well, he also thinks Ukrainians are all Nazis, so…
zhena gogolia
@Steeplejack: Looks like 400 to me.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose : They didn’t get it from Putin.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic:
At my pandemic nadir I weighed in at 230lb. I’m 5’8″. Li’l Donnie is (ahem) a bit taller. I sure didn’t look as rotund as he does. Ergo, he was a shit-ton heavier than 239lb. A. Shit. Ton.
*grin
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose : Early in the war, Meduza published an incredible article by a sociologist (I’m sorry I can’t remember the name so I can’t link it) who had gone around Russia interviewing people. The very same person would say first that the Ukrainians were just Russians. Then they would say they were Nazis. They they would say the Ukrainians wanted to kill all the Russians. The same person would go from saying they didn’t exist to saying they wanted to kill Russians. It’s madness.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose :
A wise someone pointed out that most of the RWNJs don’t actually believe the incredibly offensive things they profess. If pushed-to-it, they’ll admit that those things are wrong, and just move on. This wise one termed such quasi-beliefs as “positions”, to be abandoned when no longer defensible. To these fuckers, what matters is winning, power, status. Truth and belief and all that? Pffffft.
They profess this belief b/c it’s convenient and gets them thru the day. And hey, it might be profitable. But in truth, they all know that if they could, they’d move to the West: that’s why the oligarchs park all their money and buy all their fancy pleasure palaces in the West, after all.
As with the RWNJs, hypocrisy isn’t a sin, or even embarrassing. It’s irrelevant. Power is all that matters.
jeffreyw
Another Scott
@zhena gogolia:
He loves Sumo wrestling, perhaps. BI.com:
Maybe!!
But, probably not.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jerzy Russian
@zhena gogolia: Maybe the figure is 300 kg, and something was lost on translation.
Timill
@Another Scott: I believe that Roman gladiators did the same sort of thing: add defensive subcutaneous fat so that exciting wounds weren’t as harmful as they looked.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose : It has been a deep-seated russian belief for centuries.
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: God, that’s…enraging and heartbreaking and disgusting all at once.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I suppose then there’s no reason to think it might change. Which makes me wish even more that other countries would heed Zelenskyy’s words and pleas more than they have done.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose : It reminds of the way that RWNJs and gun-humpers (and white supremacists, but that Venn diagram is a circle) respond when a Black person is murdered by the po-po. Various arguments, all of which are contradictory, for why that *person* was at fault, not the po-po.
Adam L. Silverman
@Andrya: You’re quite welcome. And your family too!
I’ll try to remember to post some links tomorrow night to some of the charitable groups providing various forms of aid to Ukraine.
As to your question, my take, as I’ve posted several times, is that Putin’s headspace is extreme resentment over what has happened to Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. And yes, this is despite that he is responsible for a lot of the bad things that have happened to Russia as he’s been either running the place or helping to run it for almost its entire post Soviet existence. This extreme resentment is combined with the fabricated alternative, mythologized history of Russia he adopted at some point, then internalized, and has since contributed to. As we’ve discussed, this alternative, mythologized history hits all the worst and most concerning notes: fictionalized origin that establishes the Rus as a pure (white) arctic race descended from the ancient gods, completely fabricated history of the Kyivan Rus and the founding of Moscow and ultimately Russia, completely fabricated history of the origins, causes, and outcome of World War II inherited from the Soviets. And a few other things thrown in as well. Put it all together and you’ve got a recipe for extreme, violent, reactionary revanchist behavior.
Adam L. Silverman
@Alison Rose : Facebook is also a terrorist state. Which is why Zuck runs interference for the worst. And for a profit.
The Thin Black Duke
@Spanky: Soon-to-be-Dead Zeppelin.
Adam L. Silverman
@Alison Rose : @Steeplejack: Right now, because I haven’t worked out for two weeks and won’t be able until next Monday once I’m off the antibiotics, I’m most likely running at 280 to 285. I’m 5’11. And while I would like to loose 20 to 30 lbs regardless of my probably being about 5 to 10 lbs heavier than I was two weeks ago, I do not look like that.
Andrya
@Adam L. Silverman: I have read (with great attention) your previous analyses. I guess I was shying away from what appears to be the bottom line:
We have a madman, subject to delusions, controlling world class nukes. And he neither knows nor cares how that appears to the rest of humanity.
Dr. Strangeglove, please call your office.
Adam L. Silverman
@Timill: Not according to that HBO documentary entitled Spartacus. No one on that documentary had any excess body fat.
Adam L. Silverman
@Andrya: We’ve got more than one.
Mnemosyne
I’ve been in the romance space during my long pause, and several friends of mine published anthologies that benefit Ukraine refugee relief. The specific one that I was closest to has been unpublished now that they’ve reached their goal of over $20,000, but this one is still available for any historical romance readers:
https://smile.amazon.com/Sunflower-Season-Historical-Romance-Anthology-ebook/dp/B0B3FBN1Z5/
ETA: This is the one my friends/publishers did, but it’s no longer available.
https://twirlingbookprincess.com/2022/03/release-day-blitz-stand-for-ukraine-a-charity-anthology-from-the-new-romance-collection/
debbie
I didn’t realize Putin had lost so many military leaders. That he’s still going on with this guy tells me he’s not ending anything until it’s totally ended. I don’t read much SF or fantasy, but it’s like he’s preparing for the Final Battle. I hear all this talk about authoritarianism gaining a foothold if Russia wins, but I’m beginning to think if Russia wins, this is it; this is the final scene for what becomes of this world. Of course, I fell asleep at 7:30 and just woke up, so I could be goofy.
Thanks as always, Adam. Glad you’re better, but don’t come back too fast, especially with that manic exercising of yours.
Cameron
Jeez, touchy, touchy:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-says-any-nato-encroachment-crimea-could-lead-world-war-three-2022-06-27/
debbie
@Cameron:
Putin and Medvedev are having a bluster-off.
Adam L. Silverman
@Mnemosyne: Welcome home!
Anthony
I thought Gen. Pavel was an Onion article, but I guess he’s the new guy.
Jackie
It’s wonderful having your posts, again, Adam! I hope you’re over the worst.
The MSM is not giving us the in-depth info we trust you to provide. Welcome back!
glc
@Jerzy Russian: Another source says 127 kg.
Presumably at one point that’s what he weighed.
He probably wasn’t expecting this turn of events.
YY_Sima Qian
@debbie: The Russian Army has lost quite a few major generals leading brigades (or at least their command staffs), & a few Lt. generals on the command staffs of Army Groups (which are more like small divisions in the US Army), not any (that I am aware) at the theater command level. Of course, Putin has replaced a string of theater commanders to cover his own massive failure at the strategic level.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L. Silverman: Welcome back Adam! Really missed these updates!
Why is the UK MOD calling Sieverodonetsk-Lysychansk a “pocket”? The Ukrainian formations there are not surrounded, though not for the lack of trying on the Russia part.
Mnemosyne
@Adam L. Silverman:
Thanks! I had a very productive break. Three anthologies coming out this year.
Alison Rose
@Adam L. Silverman: My mom would definitely agree with you. I think if she ever had the chance, she would kick Zuck right in the junk.
Adam L. Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: They’ve lost at least one colonel generals. Remember our ranks are funky. Our two star rank – major general – is subordinate to our three star rank – Lieutenant General – even though lieutenants are ranked below majors.
Adam L. Silverman
@Jackie: You’re most welcome.
Adam L. Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I think it’s because it’s the last part of that salient everyone was concerned about.
Adam L. Silverman
@Mnemosyne: Congratulations!
Adam L. Silverman
@Alison Rose : That’s on every right thinking person’s bucket list.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L. Silverman: Given the slow meat grinding slog that is the Donbass Campaign, perhaps it would be helpful to compare the current UK MOD map to that of 1 or 2 weeks ago, so that the gains on either side are more apparent to the casual observer.
As you have maintained, in a meat grinding slog, the more important metric to assess is the amount of combat power each side retains at its disposal, & their respective abilities to quickly regenerate combat power, rather than the relatively small shifts in territory in any given day. The Russian capture of Sieverodonetsk has no strategic or even operational significance, as the Ukrainian Army avoided any kind of encirclement & maintained the integrity of its defensive lines. The only significance is how much the Ukrainians bled the Russians, & vice versa, during the battle. Unfortunately, I don’t think OSINT provide much insight here. We have all seem WAGs by various commentators on the subject, but there is no way to judge their credibility & accuracy. I know Carlo G. has strong faith in Ukraine being able to generate far more manpower, & that is certainly valid as long as Putin does not order a general mobilization in Russia. However, at some point Ukraine will need to go on the offensive to recapture lost territories, sending hastily raised & trained TDFs (& lightly armed) against prepared defenses, well supported by artillery, is asking a lot, & will result in horrendous losses.
After weeks of fighting, it is clear that the Russian Army will not be able to achieve the kind of breakthrough & encirclement of significant Ukrainian formations that will have a meaningful impact. The Russian advances will be slow enough to allow the Ukrainian Army to withdrawal in decent order & take up the next defensive line.
However, I would not take solace at western intelligence reports that the Russian military will start to run out of combat power (including munitions) in a few months. In that time, the Russian Army can capture all of Donbass, & possibly Kramatorsk & Sloviansk.
In fact, if Putin is rational & smart, he could declare a unilateral ceasefire after capturing all of Donbass & express willingness to negotiate, while domestically claiming to have rescued the Russian speaking brethren in Eastern Ukraine from the Western Ukrainian “Nazis” & built a buffer to protect Rodina from “NATO aggression”. That would provide him w/ a face saving way (however thin the veneer) to take a pause, consolidate the gains, & reconstitute the Russian military (which will be a huge challenge). I expect there will be significant dissension w/in NATO & the EU in that scenario, as not every member has been equally enthusiastic about taking risks to confront Putin, & all of the EU are suffering from the economic impact of sanctions on Russia. All of the fence sitter nations around the world will jump at the chance to push for an end to the fighting, & ending at least some of the sanctions.
Then again, given the the strategic & operational acumen Putin has a exhibited in the invasion to date, he will probably push the exhausted & depleted Russian Army to toward the Dnieper & Odesa to achieve his objective of leaving a landlocked rump in Western Ukraine, extending his forces yet again & leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattack.
ColoradoGuy
No way, no how is that guy 300 lbs, or T**** 239 lbs. I’m 6′ 1″, which is T**** supposed height, and my weight varies between 230 to 240 lbs. I don’t look anything like those two.
T**** is probably a bit less than 6′ when he’s not wearing those silly high-lift shoes, and he must be 300 lbs or more. Maybe 350 lbs. My guess on the Russian is 400 lbs or more. Mobility and overall health are definitely impaired when you weigh that much.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
Asking seriously, b/c I don’t know: why would UA do this? It would seem like they’d want to do to RU what RU did to them: use artillery to systematically destroy all artillery, tanks, trucks, IFVs, everywhere in RU-controlled territory. Take out the train lines, the ammo depots (like they’re doing) and do so back into RU territory (using, for sure, artillery, can’t upset their skittish Western benefactors, sigh). And only then actually go in with ground forces.
Maybe the answer is that RU can dig in and withstand artillery bombardment as well as UA can. But they still need resupply, and that resupply can be interdicted.
Redshift
@Andrya:
Because he’s not a responsible head of state, he’s the boss of a mafia state. And reportedly, he has in common with TFG that he doesn’t care about his country or a legacy, he only cares about himself so building something that will last after he’s gone is irrelevant.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I was referring specifically to comments that Carlo G. has made in the past that Ukrainian manpower will eventually overwhelm circumcised Russian manpower & bring victory. My contention is that most of that manpower superiority present as TDFs, whose utility in offensive operation against entrenched enemy will be limited.
No, I do not at all believe the Ukrainian Army will send TDFs to the slaughter against prepared positions backed by abundant artillery. To do what you rightly suggest, OTOH, requires much more long range artillery & air power than have been donated to Ukraine so far, or in the pipeline. The Ukrainian MOD’s huge wishlist might not be all that far off the mark, at least not an order of magnitude off.
Lastly, I am not sure either side has demonstrated that much proficiency in battlefield interdiction using long range artillery (or air power in Russia’s case). They have had some tactical successes, including Russia w/ ballistic & cruise missiles, but nothing that impactful that I have seen. Probably points to the limitations in C4ISR for both sides.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I appreciate your last paragraph. Here’s hoping that that’ll change for UA.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Here is the thing, assuming there is some kind of ceasefire after Russia occupies all of Donbass, it will surely be temporary. Ukraine will seek to recapture the lost territories at the earliest opportunity. W/ all of the technological sanctions, & w/ China clearly resistant to providing actual material support to Russia, Ukraine might reconstitute its fighting force & recapitalize its combat power much more quickly than Russia can. Surely Ukraine will continue to receive western military equipment & training, & western advised reorganization. It is during such a pause that Ukraine could bring its potential manpower advantage to bear, translated into combat power, w/ proper equipment & training.
As it is, NATO equipment are arriving piecemeal, seems to be deployed to the front piecemeal (to alleviate the dire disadvantage in firepower), & are consumed piecemeal (as the Russians target such equipment).
However, Ukraine will also need a lot of financing & aid to overcome the economic crisis, resulting from the invasion, to afford such reconstitution & recapitalization (including rebuilding its industries, especially arms & munitions industries).
Brian
@Adam L. Silverman: Major General is shorthand for Sergeant Major General.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic:
This is by now established beyond question. However, I think it only furnishes moral background to the motivation for the strikes.
Part of what is happening, I think, is that the Russians exhausted their precision target long-range munitions some time in April, and have no way to really strike at truly military targets deep behind enemy lines. The “Senior Defense Official” alluded to this in connection to a strike on apartment blocks near a depot. If they did have such munitions they would doubtless be using them instead of the crap that they are firing, since the military payoff for hitting a weapons resupply convoy or a troop barracks decidedly outweighs the “benefit” of an ethnic cleansing event on thelse sorts of scales.
So they use the dumb weapons that they have, for the marginal military benefit that they yield, uncaring of the human cost that they exact, for the same reason one might play the slots: because occasionally they might get a payoff, and the only cost that they care about is the marginal cost of the expenditure of the munition.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: The characterization of entrenched, well-defended Russian forces in prepared positions surrounded by massive artillery is, in my opinion, a bit misleading. It’s probably valid in the Sieverodonetsk-Lukhansk pocket and surrounding theater, where the Russians have concentrated almost all their combat power — and where, incidentally, the UA has now inflicted about 5000 KIA on them at a favorable exchange rate in the past month, according to Chuck Pfarrer.
In the Southern land bridge, however, the Russian formations are necessarily much less strong and less well supported. There are bound to be seams, weak points, unpresided areas not covered by pre-registered artillery (many of the artillery units elements from the occupying BTGs were fed into the Donbas maelstrom). It would make a lot more sense from the UA’s point of view, having extracted their price for Sieverodonetsk and forced maximum Russisn force commitment there, to hit the Russians in the South, where they cannot possibly be strong, or prepared.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: The shopping mall in Kremenchuk was not a mistake. It was a targeted strike on a civilian facility purely to cause terror. Stop making excuses for terrorism.
zhena gogolia
@Redshift: Khodorkovsky gave the best answer to someone who was trying to get him to analyze Putin’s motives. “He’s a criminal. He’s been a criminal since he was a kid. That’s his motivation.”
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: I agree with you. This was no mistake.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: News today is that the Mayor of occupied Kherson has been kidnapped by the russians. I’m sure that’s just due to their lack of precision-guided weapons.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Were is Russia going to get the officers to staff this army if they are down to the dregs? It’s time for these wankers to give it up and go home.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
History rhymes as they say and I found out about the Brusilov offensive in WW1, were things got so bad for Russia the Tsar was forced to appoint a competent general, Result was a huge battle that broke the Austrian Hungarian army, advanced 50 miles which unbelievable for WW1, but cost the Russians million men and started the collapse of the Russian army that led to the 1917 Revolutions. Seems a bit like what’s going on, expect no big break threws.
Dernhelm
@Carlo Graziani:
The rockets were fired at Kremenchuk from aircraft launched from Belarus overflying Ukrainian soil. OSINT wondered why there was a flurry of NATO fighters up earlier, including an F-35 on the southern border of Romania and several Typhoons to the north.
Do you really think their aim is that bad?
Instead, they have been very careful to hit neither military targets — nor the government buildings in Kyiv. This is what a punitive expedition does, when they want to terrorize the population and convince the government to surrender intact. It’s all there in history books, from ancient Greece to Lidice. Read Henry V and the speech at Harfleur.
And Russian Telegram was full of people cheering this week for strikes on apartment buildings, and again yesterday.
While the Russian deputy told the UN it was another Ukrainian false flag — like Bucha.
Meanwhile, the head of Moldova, Maia Sandu, was in Kyiv to coordinate their responses to Russian aggression, from rerouting rail lines to EU compliance to the threats to attack Ukraine via Transnistria.
This was no more a random attack than any of the other punitive strikes by Moscow have been.
“The cruelty IS the point.”
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Apparently this shopping mall massacre was in relationation for all the rear area troops being killed by the missile strikes from the newly deployed HIMARS system against Russian army supply dumps.
YY_Sima Qian
I think all of the above are true: Russia C4ISR sucks (meaning poor targeting at lot of the times), the Russian military us running short of smart munitions (& constrained ability to restock them due to the tech sanctions), & that terrorizing the civilian population is standard MO of the Russian military in current & past conflicts.
J R in WV
Thanks for this Adam!
Glad you are feeling better, I’ve been on antibiotics for quite a while now for a persistent infection, it does affect lots of other things, so I feel for/with you.
I have to read these updates the next morning, in order to sleep well at all. As well as one can expect to when things are as F’up as they are everywhere. Pandemics, climate change, Gun terror, war with a nuclear power, such good news. At least things are interesting, too much so in my book!
Take care, keep in touch!
Dernhelm
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Dernhelm
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
So they can’t hit Ukrainian military targets? Only commit war crimes against civilians?
Russia now says there was no one in the shopping center, but that they did hit an arms depot nearby and the resulting explosion is what set the building they claim was deserted on fire.
As if we don’t know what exploding munitions dumps look like by now, and as if Ukrainian social media wasn’t full of people trying to find family and friends who were there.
Who knows what their third lie will be?
Bill Arnold
@Dernhelm:
The intent depends on the accuracy of the weapons involved. The one(s?) that hit the shopping mall (KH-22?) is said to not be very accurate, like up to hundreds of meters of error using inertial guidance and assuming accurate targeting coordinates. If multiple missiles were used, then it’s more likely it was a targeted attack, as opposed to an area terror attack on a civilian area.
Either way, it was a war crime of the terrorism sort. In 2022, a high tech army using non-PGMs in civilian areas is committing war crimes, and if they have and used KH-22 with terminal guidance, then it was a targeted war crime.
Have had trouble finding open-source accuracy information on that missile, though.
Bill Arnold
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Sure, but it’s a war crime, and attacking high-value Russian targets with PGMs is not a war crime.