I won’t truly believe America is safe from the possibility that Ron DeSantis could win the 2024 GOP primary (and thus have a non-zero shot at becoming POTUS) until the day a living, breathing and un-incarcerated Trump accepts the nomination. (Frying pan, fire, etc.)
Truthfully, my anxiety will persist beyond that. Trump is so legally and actuarily imperiled that we shouldn’t discount his distant-though-closest, squintiest rival until the ballots are printed and the voting starts.
DeSantis isn’t giving up either. He’s preternaturally committed to this run. He’s still plodding around in cowboy boots he finds uncomfortable so he can look a bit taller. Before the campaign launch, he lost weight so rapidly he earned the nickname “Captain Ozempic” in Tallahassee. He is rumored to have given up not only dessert spoons but the pudding cups themselves.
Also, I really hate to admit it, but the GOP debate guru seems to be working his magic because while DeSantis wasn’t especially impressive at the first GOP debate, it wasn’t a disaster. He often remembers to lower his naturally high-pitched, whiny voice down an octave (like the Theranos scam lady allegedly did). And he’s way better at controlling his rage around not-Fox News reporters.
Check out when Nora O’Donnell challenges him at about the 3:25 mark — you can see DeSantis almost launch into a snippy, condescending reply, but then his face goes blank as he mentally counts backwards from 20 or whatever the guru said to do in that situation.
But makeovers and remedial etiquette lessons only take you so far. DeSantis lost his fattest-cat donor due to his extremely hard-right policies, including the six-week abortion ban. O’Donnell questions him about that in the clip above; here’s the CBS News account in text form:
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said he does not support criminalizing women who receive abortions even after he signed a six-week abortion ban into law earlier this year that includes language that could be interpreted as such.
“We have no criminal penalty,” DeSantis, who is running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, told “CBS Evening News” anchor and managing editor Norah O’Donnell in an interview Tuesday. “The penalties are for the physician.”
Kudos to CBS for pointing out that the law is open to interpretation. Florida’s supermajority GOP statehouse churns out garbage laws that are intentionally vague and often don’t withstand judicial scrutiny outside of courts stocked with hard-right Fed-Soc hacks. Unfortunately, the fate of reproductive healthcare in the state is being decided by a hack court. (Jezebel)
On Friday, the Florida Supreme Court heard arguments in a lawsuit that could trigger a six-week abortion ban, which would devastate access for people in the South. One Justice, Charles Canady, is intimately familiar with the ban because his wife, state Rep. Jennifer Canady (R), co-sponsored it—and he didn’t recuse himself from the case.
Barbara Pariente, a former chief justice of the Florida Supreme Court, said in June that Canady should step aside. “I know Justice Canady to be of the highest ethics,” Pariente said. “I cannot imagine himself not recusing himself from a bill that his wife co-sponsored…”
Even if Canady had recused, things still wouldn’t look good for abortion access: Five of the seven justices were appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and several of them have personal ties to the anti-abortion movement. All five are members of the conservative Federalist Society, the same group that all of Donald Trump’s Supreme Court appointees belong to.
The shamelessness of elite right-wing legal hacks is surpassed only by the astounding credulity of their elite liberal and centrist colleagues. This appears to be true at the state level as well as the federal. Seriously, I never want to hear about the “highest ethics” of a forced birther judge ever again. They’re all liars.
No one should trust DeSantis on this because he lies a lot about specific policy questions. For example, when questioned by impudent reporters about the ramifications of the “don’t say gay” law when he first signed it, DeSantis angrily claimed people were overreacting because it would apply to grades K-3 only (though vague language caused broad administrative changes as school districts took ass-covering measures). A short time later, DeSantis asked his appointees in the state education department to expand it to all grades, which they immediately did. He just flat-out lied.
He’s lying about this “heartbeat” nonsense too, and it’s not surprising because “pro-life” activists lie all the time. They intentionally deceive scared girls and young women with their (now taxpayer funded) “crisis pregnancy centers” and lure them in for indoctrination. The ones who say “leave abortion law to the states” are lying because they would back a federal ban, and the ones who say they support a 15-week federal bans are lying about that too because they’d leave draconian state laws in place.
To quote Hannibal Lecter paraphrasing Marcus Aurelius, “Of each particular thing, ask what is it in itself? What is its nature? What does he do, this man you seek?” He lies. They all lie. That is their nature.
Open thread.
Omnes Omnibus
I mentioned this below, but I think it is worth spamming all the threads. Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin is resuming abortion services in Milwaukee and Madison. Source (Twitter).
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: Why had they stopped? What changed. That’s great news!
Brachiator
@Omnes Omnibus:
This is very good news, indeed.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: Dobbs.
RaflW
“The penalties are for the physician.”
I know it’s a pipe dream, but every single doctor in Florida should be making prompt plans to leave. Not just OBGYNs. All of ’em, Katie. Show this fkkr and his enabling legislative junta that criminalizing doctors over the provision of appropriate care that has been the standard for multiple decades will not stand. Because if they can criminalize abortion post-6 weeks, what’s next? (Or have they already also criminalized the provision of gender care, ’cause that is next, I’m sure).
Even if only 5% or 10% of FL doctors effectively bugged out (or retire a bit ahead of schedule, etc), if they publicize their exodus effectively, the resulting struggles by FL oldsters to get appointments for their ointments would be somethin’.
H.E.Wolf
PostcardsToVoters.org has just opened their GOTV campaign for Ohio’s November 2023 ballot issue (Issue 1: “The Right to Reproductive Freedom with Protections for Health and Safety”).
This is the ballot issue that the deceptive August 2023 special election in Ohio was meant to scuttle. Instead, pro-choice voters soundly defeated it, clearing the way for a potential reproductive-rights victory this November.
PSA to men who can print the alphabet: This is a great way to walk the talk! Pitch in alongside all the women (many of them BJ jackals) taking one small, concrete action to benefit Ohio residents.
PSA to anyone who likes to be sneaky: Postcard GOTV campaigns have a tendency to catch the opposition off-guard. It’s very satisfying. :-)
Omnes Omnibus
@Omnes Omnibus: Slightly longer answer: There is a draconian anti-abortion law on the books from 1849 that some argue (and I would agree) was superseded by abortion legislation in the 1960s/70s. With the prior supreme court, litigation on that issue was problematic at best. Now, however, PP is reasonably safe.
oldster
DeSantis’ bizarre zombie-like persistence is not entirely irrational, even if it is entirely repulsive.
He is watching tfg rack up the indictments, and calculating the likelihood that at least one will result in a guilty verdict and perhaps some jail time. Neither of those outcomes will dissuade the hardcore Magats, but it may dissuade the median Republican.
At which point, he has a shot at the nomination. And if he becomes the nominee, then he doesn’t have to do much but let the national press spend 14 months talking about Biden’s age, in order to have a re-run of 2016.
He’s a complete scum, but his calculations are not as unrealistic as I would like them to be.
Omnes Omnibus
@oldster: It’s not 2016.
Jeffro
It is tempting to do the ‘fixed!’ thing here by striking through ‘doctor’ and adding ‘person’, but I know there are plenty of folks there who love their state and of course tens of millions who can’t just up and leave.
So…let’s hope for better days ahead for Florida, and soon.
wjca
It’s not like there’s a lack of places in need, sometimes in desperate need, of a doctor.
Trivia Man
@Omnes Omnibus: Supreme Cory elections have consequences
RaflW
@Omnes Omnibus: Is this meant to draw in the WI Supremes? Does Josh Kaul have to do anything as a constitutional officer on this?
Trivia Man
@H.E.Wolf: I received 3 postcards for the WI Supreme Court race, it get good. I was already sold, I even voted early so I could pull watch on Election Day. But I bet it dragged more than a few uncertain folks out to the polls,
thanks!
Jeffro
Sorry – OT but too good not to mention – looks like Kraven McCarthy is busy dropping f-bombs while “daring” the House Freedumb Caucus to file a motion to oust him as speaker.
“I’m not scared”, said an obviously terrified McCarthy
LOLOL
oldster
@Omnes Omnibus:
I agree that it is not literally 2016 — I’m still oriented x3 — but I worry that the national press is going to harp on Biden’s age relentlessly in the way that they relentlessly harped on Hillary’s emails, thereby convincing a lot of low-info voters that there was A Problem even when there wasn’t one.
Is there something new in the nation or its press that you think will protect us from that outcome? I’d be relieved to hear it.
Ditto for the way that McCarthy and Jordan used the Benghazi hearings to drive down Hillary’s numbers, despite the fact that there was absolutely no culpability in her actions. They are going to run that same play with the bogus impeachment, simply to drive down Biden’s numbers. Is the nation or its press going to avoid falling for it this time? I sure hope so, but I don’t see why you would be confident that it won’t work again.
BlueGuitarist
@H.E.Wolf: yay for postcards!
SuzieC
@H.E.Wolf: Vote Forward is also about to open a letter-writing campaign.
Omnes Omnibus
@RaflW: Kaul filed a suit almost immediately after Dobbs was decided. It is working its way through the court system. Next stop, supremes, (NYT link)
kindness
DeSantis is banking on Trump being found guilty in several of his criminal trials. That isn’t terrible logic because even right wing Republican mini-Musollinis know down deep that Trump is guilty. My guess is DeSantis expects the Republican party will abandon Trump after (several of) his guilty verdicts and toss Ron a Hail Mary.
That is where Ron is an idiot. Today’s Republican party will fight tooth and nail to continue to support Trump, even if he is behind prison bars.
Omnes Omnibus
@oldster: Well, we lived through 2016-2020. We don’t have a hot;y contested primary. Dems are as unified as they have ever been since I was born (1964). Dobbs. I am not saying that people won’t try or that it might not be close, but one can’t just say that what happened in 2016 will just happen again.
moops
A lot of Florida doctors are anti-abortion Republican scum. For many, it is why they are in Florida in the first place.
Bill Arnold
@oldster:
This is why it’s important to plot out full and ruthless anti-DeSantis narratives based on solid oppo research, now; they might be needed.
Same for the other top potential 2024 GOP candidates for POTUS.
Westyny
@RaflW: we need doctors in the otherwise nearly perfect Hudson Valley. They would be welcome here. But I fear that they’re snowbirds at the core. And many of them don’t expect the gator to eat THEIR face.
Joy in FL
@Jeffro: Thank you.
I’m one of the “Florida oldsters” who would suffer if a significant number of doctors left Florida.
Those of us in Florida who voted for Obama and Biden have not all died or moved out of state. Unfortunately we are out-numbered.
Jackie
@Jeffro: Who’s willing to step up to replace “My Kevin?” And how does that person get 218 votes?
Nobody wants the Speakership – probably not even Kevin any more.
Jeffro
That, and several of Ron’s rivals for the nom know that he’s a weak as hell candidate, too. They won’t just walk away and let him have it.
Jeffro
I’m tempted to say Hakeem Jeffries is willing to step up, but he’s smarter than that – smart enough to know that a Speakership gained with the help of a few GOP votes is no Speakership at all.
Let them fling poo at each other until next November, we can wait.
Take a GOOOOOD look, America: this is how Republicans “govern”
RaflW
@Jeffro: I definitely understand that people can’t all just up and leave. And of course there’s plenty of Dems stuck with Ron & Co’s terrible policies. None of the chaos Repubs are sowing won’t hurt liberals and normies in these states.
I think where FL is screwing itself is in how college enrollments are going to look in a couple years.
Maybe some admissions depts can keep butts in seats, but is the quality of students going to stick? Though I know GOP politicians won’t care, but what are the college rankings gonna look like down the road? I don’t get why businesses in FL aren’t making noise about their future workforce being eroded. But then again, I realize that the masters of business are notoriously poor planners and forward-lookers.
Jamey
@Omnes Omnibus: Big, if true.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jamey: I googled it.
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: They stopped because of Dobbs, but Dobbs has not been overturned. So how did they restart?
Is it because the Wisconsin Supreme Court flipped?
Mousebumples
Thanks for the planned parenthood news, Omnes! I had read something about how a recent Dane County ruling was also a factor? I’m at work so not tons of time to dig deeper (also IANAL).
Still good news!
Citizen Alan
@Jackie: I wager Haleem Jeffries would take it if five or so Republicans-turned-Independents offered it to him.
RaflW
@RaflW: I’ll also add that while I may seem trite, I am someone who up and left a state when it was going to shit. I took the risk to move to MN from TX in 1995, after Dubya took over from the wonderful Ann Richards. I could see where the dumpster and the match were about to meet.
It wasn’t easy. It wasn’t cheap. It came at a real cost in terms of friendships, but also opened up new community and eventually an excellent quality of life.
Admittedly I had the resources and mobility to do it. I do get that many don’t have that. I’m not wishing for suffering. I’m wishing for backlash against the GOP to hurry up and get here.
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
There are some things we can’t wait for, like passing appropriations bills for this year. If I could be confident the media would report a shutdown as “Republicans can’t get their shit together to pass appropriations”, I would probably be OK with a short shutdown to let people see what Republican governance is like. In practice, we all know this will be blames on a generic disfunctional Congress, so the Democrats will be held equally responsible for what is 100% Republican idiocy. Since we actually need a working government and will be blamed if we don’t have one, I think Jeffries would reluctantly accept a shaky Speakership propped up with a few Republican votes.
Sean
It’s a long way to the primaries and money isn’t growing on trees for Ron. Even if trump were to face a completed trial and conviction before the primaries, it won’t hurt him at the polls with the cult members. Trump’s death is likely Ron’s only shot.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: Yes, the supreme court is the next stop for the suit. PP feels pretty safe to resume now.
Jeffro
@Citizen Alan: they’d be Independents-turned-Republicans the moment he said ‘yes’, and they’d have him – and the Democratic Party, by extension – over a barrel.
Nope. Let the GOP own their own shit-show for a while.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: You asked why they stopped. But see my longer answer.
Frankensteinbeck
@oldster:
Because Biden is not Hillary. As disgusted as I am to say it, an enormous portion of the population was looking desperately for a reason to not vote for That Woman. There is no equivalent desire with Biden because he is a white man. Claims that Biden is too old are going to be laughable when smiling, energetic Biden appears beside increasingly haggard and incoherent Trump.
artem1s
@H.E.Wolf:
Was LaRose successful in borking the language and keeping the watered down version (that may not say anything close to what the title promises and the petition that the voters signed)?
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/after-issue-1-defeat-larose-rewrites-abortions-rights-amendment-summary-with-misleading-language/
After failing to thwart direct democracy via Issue 1, Ohio Republicans are now using the confusing language change to get their way. Lauren Blauvelt, co-chair of Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, which pushed the original measure, described the new language as “propaganda.” Elliot Forhan, a Democrat on the board, called out the summary for being “rife with misleading and defective language.”
Jeffro
@Roger Moore: That’s not needed – “My Kevin” can let appropriations votes come to the floor and let some of the Biden-district House GOP members join the Dems to pass them if necessary.
Jackie
@Jeffro: That could prove…. interesting?
We learned during the week that “My Kevin” prostituted himself begging for the required votes, Government stopped. Nothing concerning Congress can move forward without a Speaker. Due to that, I think “My Kevin’s” Speakership is safe – for now, anyway.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Is that the WI Supreme Court? or the US Supreme Court?
Brachiator
I continue to be amazed that DeSantis has any political traction at all, apart from name recognition, but it is clear that a sizable portion of the GOP base has embraced Trumpism. And an angry hard core wants Trump. They explicitly reject any Republican presidential aspirant who criticizes Trump.
I don’t think that future presidential debates will change any of this. We will see if the primaries reflect any shift in voter preferences.
Meanwhile, all this may make it easier for the Democrats, with respect to shaping their own political strategy.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl:
It is a Wisconsin law. WI supreme court.
Jackie
@Citizen Alan: Only if the flippers promised to guarantee continued support for democratic agencies. Otherwise he’d be in the same hell “My Kevin” begged for.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: What are the positive court rulings that are referred to here? Do you know?
schrodingers_cat
@Omnes Omnibus: I asked 2 questions, you answered one.
I should have perhaps elaborated and asked why did they restart, what changed?
I will take a look at the linked comment. Thanks
wjca
Which may be why McCarthy was moved to effectively dare them to remove him.
tobie
@oldster: Rep. Dean Phillips was interviewed by Steve Inskeep on NPR and he immediately concern-trolled about age. I hope Phillips is primaried. We’re going in to the election with the current admin. Some of us think the Biden administration has done a fantastic job domestically and internationally. Elected Dems should be broadcasting those successes. Period. Anything else helps the authoritarian right, which is identical with the Republican Party.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: See this comment.
RaflW
@tobie: Ugh. Phillips. His district starts not many miles west of me. At the time he won, that was a very purple district and getting that seat into decent Democratic hands was important. But he’s getting rather full of himself these days — he’s arrogant enough to occasionally have his name bandied as a possible replacement (titular only, not in substance or gravitas) for Biden.
George Herbert Walker Bush was the last former member of the House to make it to President, but it was a long path from House to other jobs to VP to President. And, OK, Gerry Ford went from House to President, but uhhh, that was a pretty rare path.
eta: His seat is, IMO, entirely safe from a Dem primary. Amy K. campaigns with him pretty regularly, the MN Dem party has other fish to fry, and the district’s voters are still much less progressive than, say, Ilhan Omar or Betty McCollum’s districts near him.
Villago Delenda Est
@tobie:
Dean Phillips can FOAD. With extreme prejudice.
RaflW
@WaterGirl: Circuit Court in Dane County, WI (county that Madison is in). Per NYT
It sounds to me like PP Wisconsin is taking the path that they don’t expect the County Atty in either Milwaukee or Dane to seek enforcement of the 1849 law.
Balconesfault
In the interview, “advancing the ball” should be the tell phrase that every interviewer should jump on.
What anyone who gets the reference should know, that doesn’t mean states rights to determine what’s best for them, or some time window which is acceptable for banning abortion procedures.
Whenever DeSantis or another politician talks about advancing the ball with regards to anti-abortion laws.. the interviewer definitely needs to ask them what they think the goal line is and whether it will take legislative action to reach that goal line.
Old School
@WaterGirl:
From July 7th:
jonas
@RaflW: Where this is going to bite them more than even some faculty pulling up stakes and leaving is that more students, particularly more affluent ones, will either opt for a private school or go out of state to places where they know they’ll feel more comfortable/supported (and for women in particular, have access to reproductive medicine). Higher ed is already facing a major secular drop in the college student-age population over the next several decades. Basically letting it be known that only redneck assholes are welcome isn’t going to help the U of FL system.
MazeDancer
Killing off your base is a strange choice. Tiny D telling people over 65 not to get boosters seems ill-advised
H.E.Wolf
@Trivia Man:
Thanks for volunteering at the polls! Glad to hear that postcards may have helped turnout among on-the-fence voters.
@BlueGuitarist:
Yay indeed! I’ve got 5 in progress right now. Would love company – anyone else want to jump in?
@SuzieC:
Yay for Vote Forward – every effort makes a positive difference!
@artem1s:Was LaRose successful in borking the language and keeping the watered down version (that may not say anything close to what the title promises and the petition that the voters signed)?
Not a clue; I’ll let someone else (maybe yourself? if so, many thanks!) update us with the latest on that. If it’s misleading, then there’s all the more reason to GOTV for the “yes in November” side. Who else is in? Maybe we can reactivate the Postcard & Music Tuesday Nights on the blog….
trollhattan
@Brachiator: His purported brain seems to have him believing Florida = ‘Murka and thus, being twice-elected we, the unwashed, merely need to Get to know Ron and he’ll magically become president. Because we just can’t get enough Ron.
So, anyway, hi, Scott Walker.
trollhattan
“This Court finds we like pizza; further, we like beer.”
Paul in KY
@oldster: Will say that TFG (in 2016) had no real ‘paper trail’ for normies, beyond the BS TV shows, etc. DeSatanis does have a paper trail & we’ll hang it around that fucker’s neck.
Betty Cracker
@Balconesfault: Good point
@Paul in KY: Yep. And there are shitloads of scandals that fly under the national radar that the several excellent local dailies cover. All of that comes out if DeSantis gets the nomination.
tobie
@RaflW: The arrogance is for Phillips to claim he’s only speaking about age abstractly when that’s the cudgel of choice for the media against the *certain* Dem candidate for President in 2024. I’ll call Amy K’s office. Maybe she can have a word with Phillips.
tobie
Hunter Biden indicted on gun charges by Trump appointed prosecutor David Weiss, who shat his pats when Republicans complained about the plea deal. Case assigned to Trump appoint judge Noreika. This all sucks.
SuzieC
@artem1s: Lawsuit filed in the Ohio Supreme Court over LaRose’s rewritten propaganda language. Suit filed August 28.
jonas
@MazeDancer: Yep. The most vulnerable population these days is precisely his base voters — older, unvaccinated by choice, probably with any number of other underlying issues aside from the obvious mental problems that lead them to support Trump…
Geminid
@Jackie:
@Citizen Alan:
@Jeffro: I don’t like the idea of Jeffries trying to run the House as a minority Speaker either. He’d be better off starting with a 20 vote majority, which I think he’ll have come January, 2025.
Another scenario, though is Jeffries agreeing with 5 or more Republicans to throw his caucus behind a “caretaker” Speaker such as former Rep. Tom Reed of New York. The deal would be that Reed would agree to bring critical legislation to the floor that can be passed with 218 votes, for the remainder of this Congress.
I’m not saying this will happen, but I remember Republican Don Bacon floating it when Congress came into session in January, and I think it remains a real possibility. It may be one reason why Freedom Caucus members are reluctant to pull the trigger on a motion to vacate the Speaker’s Chair.
I just hope that if this situation arises, Tom Reed or retired Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent is available for the job. Otherwise, they could pick retired Illinois Rep. Rodney “Fucking” Davis. WaterGirl might have a heart attack!
geg6
@jonas:
We already have students from TX and FL who, when I remarked on considering a school in PA (they all decided to come here, by the way) and were they or their parents concerned about being so far from home, said they were coming here because they or their parents didn’t want them to go to in-state schools because of the crazy laws being passed. Almost needless to say, almost all those students are females.
trollhattan
@Jackie:
Newsom teed up the McCarthy pinata and took a couple swings.
One might say “comes with the territory.”
Mike in Pasadena
Just listened to Ian Masters of Backgroundbriefing.org worrying that the RNC will substitute Glenn Youngkin or similar at the RNC convention or later so that everyone will heave sigh of relief and conclude Republicans are normal again. This will demoralize Democrats (who are energized against trump) and Trump will agree to it because the nominee will promise to pardon him. I discount that theory because trump is sure he is the only person who can win. Furthermore, the RNC won’t do it because it knows it will demoralize the Republican base and ruin their down ballot prospects as well as their chances of taking the presidency. If Biden suffers a major health setback, then the chances for Ian Masters’ theory increases.
Sallycat
@RaflW: I am an old person in Florida and I loathe and despise Trump, Desantis, etc. I don’t deserve the ill effects of your proposals, nor does anyone I know. Actual people live here and we already suffer enough. Those of us without means to leave deserve compassion.
Brachiator
@trollhattan:
This strategy appears to be backfiring. The more the people get to know DeSantis, the less they like him. And this includes the political media, which strangely seemed to be attracted to him earlier.
But of course, Trump continues to be a very wild card. Also, he sees DeSantis as a possibly strong rival and so tries to undermine him. I enjoy this and hope it continues.
BR
@tobie:
Seems of all things this may be the best thing for him to be indicted on. There’s no easy way for the GOP to spin prosecution on something they think there should be no limits on.
Brit in Chicago
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m amazed that they’re willing to start on the grounds that it “feels pretty safe”. Is that really all they’ve got? What of the danger that one of the Justices will be impeached?
Ohio Mom
Something is wrong with Twitter. Well, something brand new is wrong with it.
I just checked a few twitters I follow — Cole, Dr G, Josh Marshall — and it’s all old tweets, from years ago, all jumbled up. So weird.
I know that Twitter is on borrowed time, is this the way it ends? With all current tweets gone?
Geminid
@Mike in Pasadena: This is one reason why Youngkin backers are donating to the “Spirit of Virginia” PAC that he is using to support Republicans in Virginia’s General Assembly races. They know that Youngkin’s reputation is in part dependent upon Republican success this November
Ed. There is a lot riding on Virginia’s General Assembly elections. Most important are the abortion rights of over 4 million Virginia women, and of many more in the states south and west of the Commonwealth.
PJ
@Mike in Pasadena: This is a doom fantasy. There’s no way anyone other than Trump will be the GOP candidate unless he croaks – Trump is not going to step down for anyone. If he was willing to risk going to jail to overthrow the government so he could remain President, he’s not going to step aside for the likes of Glenn Younkin. It’s the same kind of wet dream that pundits have for Ron DeSantis or Scott Walker or whomever – the socially presentable but politically vile Republican who will restore polite but rapacious destruction of society to the White House.
And if Trump croaks, whoever the Republicans nominate is going to be worse off, because some of those MAGAits are not going to show up for a “normal Republican”, and the policies of someone like Ron DeSantis are anathema in the states that are going to decide the election.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Thank you. I hadn’t made the connection.
PJ
@Ohio Mom: You have to log in with an account to view current tweets in timeline order. It’s been like that for months.
Roger Moore
@Sallycat:
More generally, the idea that people in state X, district Y, or region Z should be left to suffer because they elected a loathsome Republican goes against everything Democrats ought to stand for. We’re supposed to be the party that supports good stuff for everyone, not the party that says people not like us deserve to be punished for the crime of being different. I don’t want to be part of the party that calls for collective punishment for political crimes.
Ohio Mom
@PJ: P
Oh yeah, I just figured that out. It’s long story but I cleaned out my cookies yesterday. Tjst was a dumb move, caused all kinds of chaos.
Princess
Honestly, I think DeSantis could still be Trump’s VP — De Santis himsrlf seems to think so — and given Trump is in terrible shape, we won’t be safe from him until Biden is inaugurated.
Roger Moore
@PJ:
If Trump dies, we should ratfuck the Republicans by spreading rumors he was murdered by the Republican establishment. The QAnon conspiracy mongers will lap it up and turn against whomever is nominated in his place as the chief suspect in his murder.
Baud
@Princess:
They both live in Florida. They’re not going to give up those electoral votes.
CliosFanBoy
@Geminid:
It would help if we didn’t have Democratic candidates spending their leisure time as sex workers with their husbands.
FWIW, I’m all for legalizing sex work, consenting adults and all that. But if you go into politics, expect such hobbies to come out in public! Generally speaking, when a news story contains both “sex work” and “elected official” in the same sentence, it’s not good news.
Anoniminous
@Omnes Omnibus:
Popular vote margin is meaningless. Biden won by ~44,000 votes spread across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. Flip those and Trump is re-elected.
Baud
@CliosFanBoy:
Baud! 20XX!
japa21
@Anoniminous: Getting tired of hearing this argument. They weren’t flipped and Trump has even less support than he did then.
Betty Cracker
Regarding the gun charge against Hunter Biden, I’ve read that he bought the gun and had possession of it for 11 days, which is highly specific information. But none of the articles I’ve read said how prosecutors know that. Does anyone know how they found out he had a gun for exactly 11 days? It seems like if he were arrested with the gun, the articles would say that.
I assume prosecutors established HB was a drug addict at the time from his admissions in the book he wrote. Maybe that’s where they got the info about the gun too. If so, geez, that was an ill-advised literary effort, and you’d think a lawyer from a family of lawyers would have known that.
But maybe they got it from federal background check files or something? You’d think Repubs would be against that sort of thing, but no one ever accused them of being consistent…
wjca
Trump could magically relocate and reregister in New Jersey**. After, if he’s going to win and live in DC, what does he care?
** I seem to recall Cheney pulling something like this in 2000.
Mai Naem mobile >
@Mike in Pasadena: no way a GOPig POTUS agrees to pardon TFG. Pardoning him guarantees an election loss the next cycle. Also, there’s no guarantee TFG will not run in the primary next cycle. It’s all a big grift for TFG.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
Yeah, no hurry about those spending bills. ///
The advantage of having Jeffries as a minority Speaker right now is that he can put bills on the floor of the House, and force GOPers in swing districts to choose a side.
I’m trying to see the downside here. If 218 Rethugs are ready to vote him out of the Speakership, then they vote him out, resume their clown show, and instantly look ridiculous by comparison. It’s not like Jeffries is going to do a Kevin and jump through their hoops to try to remain Speaker.
Jackie
@Princess: Possible. But Florida’s EC votes would be split in half should TIFG win that state – and if it’s a close race, could screw the pooch – so to speak. UNLESS TIFG changes his residency to NY or NJ.
I also just don’t see Pudd’n Boots adopting the slavishly adoration to TIFG that was required from Pence.
zhena gogolia
@Sallycat: I have compassion for you. I hate this kind of rhetoric.
wjca
He might well think he could fake it, at least long enough to take office. But it would be so obviously fake that even TIFG would notice eventually. (And likely have a hissy fit in mid campaign if he’s told he can’t swap running mates in midstream.)
Mai Naem mobile >44
I think Hunter Biden should, if he can, get a plea deal and for some short prison sentence and do the time. He’s got secret service protection. It’s about as safe as it will get. He’ll end up in solitary in a low level prison with his secret service protection. He would be done before Biden starts his second term. Just make sure GOPrs are treated the same way with their guns. Especially the guys who show up at the airport with their guns in their bags.
hueyplong
Would incarceration affect Trump’s state of domicile? I assume not but don’t know for sure.
NotMax
Speaking of Florida, TIME magazine
wadesleaps into the mire with both feet.Baud
@Jackie:
Well, under Trump’s theory, DeSantis could murder Trump and assume the presidency and be immune from prosecution, and could pardon himself for good measure.
Betty
Did anyone else have trouble accessing Wordle today?
CaseyL
@Betty: No trouble accessing Wordle, but I did mine earlier than I normally do.
narya
@Betty Cracker: I think they have the timing of the gun purchase from the form he filled out when he purchased it–which overlaps with the time when he was in serious addiction freefall, according to the book. On some podcast or another, I seem to remember that a girlfriend at the time was worried he’d kill himself, and got it away from him or convinced him to get rid of it (hence the 11 days of owning it).
Jackie
In other news, Wisconsin GQP keeps on keeping on:
dm
Probably Anne will bring this up, but apparently Romney didn’t just say he’s not running for Senate again, he set fire to a lot of bridges:
https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/mitt-romney-calls-it-quits-and-his
Like this commentary on JD Vance:
“How do you sit next to him at lunch?” is so…. Romney. Choice comments about McConnell, Cruz, Hawley, and others.
Also, fascism: so many votes cast by so many people who feared their unhinged constituents and their guns.
Steeplejack
@Betty:
No problem around 5:30 a.m. EDT.
Jackie
@Baud: Ooooh! Somebody – BettyCracker? – needs to alert TIFG ASAP!
In fact TIFG should be concerned about this from ANY VP he chooses! Does a President HAVE TO have a VP?🤔
satby
@Betty Cracker: you’ll enjoy this:
Stonekettle @Stonekettle 1h
I’m just here to watch Constitutional Conservative Second Amendment Molon Labe Pry It From My Cold Dead Hands Republicans furiously defend Hunter Biden’s right to own a firearm.
Redshift
They’re not technically lying about that one, they’re just conveniently leaving out that the 15 weeks is a ceiling, not a floor. (Which means they are lying about it being some kind of compromise or moderate posting, though.)
It should be the first question if any of them have the guts to bring it up in a real interview – “so when you say 15 weeks, do you mean that would apply nationwide, or would the stricter state bans still apply in those places?”
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Betty: the light bulb works fine in my office [how many software developers does it take…].
That is, Wordle OK
lowtechcyclist
@dm:
I concur completely! I think J.D. Vance disgusts me more than RDS, and that’s a difficult bar to wiggle under.
Betty Cracker
@narya: The prosecutors are definitely using the gun purchase form as evidence of false statements. Just wondering how HB’s brief ownership of the gun came to their attention in the first place.
I’ve never bought a gun, so I’m not sure how it works, but IIRC, Repubs flipped out when background checks were enacted and put restrictions on access to that information.
WaterGirl
@trollhattan: Wrong Supreme Court! :-)
Roger Moore
@Jackie:
It’s slightly complicated, but in practice yes. Technically, a presidential candidate doesn’t need to nominate a running mate, but the constitution says the electors:
There’s no out where the electors can just leave the VP spot blank. Even if they somehow could:
So even if some electors illegally left their VP vote blank so nobody got votes from a majority of electors, the Senate would step in and pick somebody from the top two who did get votes. If the only person who got votes for VP was the other party’s candidate, the Senate would have no choice but to elect that person.
Now once the VP was elected, Trump could decide the VP was threatening to murder him and kill him first under Stand Your Ground. Then Trump would be charged with nominating a replacement, but he could just refuse to do it and leave the office vacant. In a sane universe, either of those things would be grounds for impeachment, but Trump getting reelected would be sufficient evidence we aren’t living in a sane universe.
Jackie
@Roger Moore: 😂 What a perfect SNL skit!
SomeRandomGuy
I hear they’re charging Hunter Biden, but not for allegations of bribery.
It’s funny: the big “crime” of Joe Biden is, he had family members, who earned money from foreigners, but none went into his pocket.
So, what, is Trump’s excuse that he didn’t funnel money from family members, he just had an ownership interest in the bribe-o-matic? Or what? I’m not expecting Republicans to answer this question, of course, but, why the heck isn’t anyone asking it?
Roger Moore
@Betty Cracker:
I thought Hunter wrote about his gun purchase in his book, so it’s not as if he did anything to keep it secret. That said, the whole thing is total bullshit. He owned the gun for one Scaramucci, after which he voluntarily gave it up. Any sane prosecutor would exercise their discretion and refuse to prosecute in that case. That he’s moving ahead anyway says he wants to find some grounds for prosecuting Hunter and he doesn’t give a damn about how de minimus the offense is.
Jackie
James Comer is throwing a conniption fit over Hunter’s indictment! 😂
https://www.rawstory.com/james-comer-hunter-biden-indictment-2665402042/
japa21
@Roger Moore: No, this was part of the original charges. He pretty much had to do it. It really isn’t a big deal.
MomSense
@oldster:
He really needs to update his personality software if he’s going to have a chance. He’s painfully awkward and gives wicked psycho killer vibes. During the debate he tried to smile and it just looked like a grimace.
cain
@SomeRandomGuy: Every accusation is a confession. :)
Hunter Biden is gonna get charges but the wrong ones! CORRUPTION!
twbrandt
@dm: one thing that jumped out at me in that article is that Romney pays $5K per day for security protection from deranged MAGAts. He says he can afford it(!), but admits most of his colleagues can’t.
Baud
@Jackie:
Haha. Foiled again.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anoniminous: I don’t recall mentioning popular vote margin. Also, I live in Wisconsin so I am aware of all that. It doesn’t change what I said.
tobie
@Jackie: Some people can never be pleased. Boo hoo.
Glad to hear about Comer’s tantrum. That made me feel better.
zhena gogolia
@tobie: Me too!
cain
@Roger Moore:
Dems need to troll Trump – actually call him up and suggest this. That fool would totally go for it. Not realizing what a trap it is. But going it alone would feed his narcissism. It will also kneecap all the presidential hopefuls who want to be his running mate so they can take over.
Of course, even if that fool did win, he’ll force them to accept him again – he’ll keep running and winning till he’s dead. Then he’ll make sure Ivanka is President next and then any other Trump children.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I don’t think 5 Republicans would vote to make Jeffries Speaker, and I don’t think Democrats would insist upon it if they could have a caretaker Speaker like Tom Reed, Charlie Dent, or (G-d forbid!) Rodney Davis instead. They could pass those spending bills under one of them as or more easily as they could under Jeffries.
January, 2025 is soon enough for me to have a Democratic House Majority. They are better off not having the responsibility for this Congress’s dysfunction. They can instead tell voters, “Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans have proven themselves incapable of governing. We’ve shown we were willing to use this makeshift to protect the nation’s interests. Now give us the votes to have a functional Congress that can advance our agenda and not just get by.”
And I don’t take Democratic unanimity for granted. There are ways that a small group of hardheads could hold the caucus hostage on votes if there is a razor-thin majority that is already reliant on Republican defectors. Nancy Pelosi could hold her caucus together with a 5 vote majority in the last Congress, but I think that was a lot tougher than it looked.
I want Jeffries to begin his Speakership with a majority of at least 15 members, and I believe he will have that in the next Congress
Ed. I do not think this is a likely scenario, just a possible one. It is likelier that Kevin McCarthy muddles through the rest of this Congress as the Speaker. But if Freedom Caucus members mount a successful effort to remove McCarthy and Republicans can’t replace him with someone like Scalise in 2 or 3 votes, then I think that all bets are off.
Betty Cracker
@Roger Moore: Agree 100% that it’s a bogus prosecution. That said, why did the sitting president’s son — himself a lawyer who knew he and his father were being relentlessly targeted by corrupt Repub thugs — confess to a felony in a memoir?
Maybe a smart lawyer can get him off the hook by claiming he wasn’t a drug addict during the 11 days he possessed the gun. Wouldn’t the burden be on prosecutors to prove he was? They’ve got evidence he had the gun, but maybe they lack evidence he was addicted during that specific timeframe. If the book says he was, HB can claim he exaggerated his issues to sell books.
wjca
Which has to simply infuriate Comer.
Mai Naem mobile >44
@Jackie: I know I am not supposed to make fun of people’s appearance but James Comer’s facial features look very piglike.
Glidwrith
@H.E.Wolf: Did the Secretary of State succeed in rat fucking the language of the measure?
Dan B
@Sallycat: I agree that Florida residents shouldn’t suffer any more than they already do under DeSantis. Unfortunately it seems there will be. In order to produce change there will be struggle and suffering. I feel your pain and wish it was not your reality.
Gravenstone
@Jackie: Someone please do us a favor and kick Comer square in his nuts…
trollhattan
@Jackie: James Comer? Did James Comey and Jodie Comer have a love child? I imagine that child being extraordinary tall.
RaflW
@Betty Cracker: A memoir that isn’t 100% true? Who could imagine! (Is writing a book for publication a confession? I suppose it could be the basis of starting a inquiry, but it’s not a sword affidavit!)
RaflW
@Roger Moore: Also making the bullshit factory plainly obvious: I thought the Second Amendment was sacrosanct? That they’ll suspend their gun-humping for just this guy (at least among white people) shows that 2A isn’t quite as precious and inviolable as they claim.
wjca
@RaflW:
Loving the mental image of a “sword affidavit”
Argiope
@H.E.Wolf:
I know a bunch of future nurse practitioners and nurse midwives who are interested in helping OH. When I go to Postcardstovoters.org I’m not seeing anything about the Issue 1 campaign, though, just a generic volunteer signup. Is there anything you can point me to about this specific campaign that I can share with them? Thanks in advance.
Villago Delenda Est
That’s one of the hallmarks of Nancy Smash…the ability to make really difficult things look easy.
Omnes Omnibus
@Villago Delenda Est: But she’s OLD!
Betty Cracker
@RaflW: No, it’s not a sworn affidavit. But it was stupid for the sitting president’s son to voluntarily make actionable felonious behavior public when he knows damn well he and his father have been targeted for years by evil, unscrupulous people. Joe Biden has my sympathy in this situation, not his dumbass son.
Mr. Bemused Senior
The mark of a real pro.
JimV
“The Pro-Lie Movement”–damn that’s good! Madame Cracker should definitely write a book or three.
Ruckus
@kindness:
even if he is behind prison bars.
I’d say especially if he’s behind bars. They likely “think” that he could then release himself from jail.
Geminid
@Villago Delenda Est: I give a lot of credit to the members as well. In the Congress 2019-2021, the Democratic Caucus had some rough times. The blowup over emergency border funding in July, 2019 was especially rancorous. But I think members came out with a deeper understanding and respect for each other that stood them in good stead during the next Congress, when they passed large parts of Joe Biden’s agenda with a slim majority. Schumer and Biden did their part also. It really was an outstanding team effort.
Bill Arnold
@cain:
Can he trust that his children are sufficiently less amoral than he is?
Citizen Alan
@trollhattan:
I nearly picked my apartment based on who my Congressman would be. That’s how ridiculously carved up Fresno is–4 congress critters have a piece of it. But the kitchen in the apartment in the dem’s district was tiny. So I sucked it up and took a place in Tom fucking McClintock district.
Citizen Alan
@CliosFanBoy: I am nearly certain that Obama would not have been elected if he’d had an actual afro, or even if Michelle didn’t use hair straightener. That’s how narrow-minded and parochial our electorate is. So no, there is zero possibility of a sex worker of either gender getting elected anywhere in the country that’s less than D+25. It was hubris or naivete to think otherwise.
Citizen Alan
@zhena gogolia: i have plenty of compassion for the good and decent people who are trapped in red states. Hell, up until July, I was one. But by the same token, I cannot begrudge people who flee or avoid states run by Taliban monsters My heart goes out to the people trapped in red states just as it does people trapped in places like Afghanistan or Somalia. But I can’t do anything to help them either except cheer when I hear of some of them escaping to a better life.
Citizen Alan
@Mai Naem mobile >44:
I can’t think of any GOP pols who look human to me.
Geminid
@Citizen Alan: Susanna Gibson underrestimated the thouroughness of Republic opposition researchers. She should have thought about the incident in 2019 when anti-abortion activists dredged up an old medical yearbook picture they claimed was of Ralph Northam in blackface.
State Senator L. Louise Lucas has tried hard to turn this incident back on Republicans, but I suspect it won’t work out for Gibson.
Paul in KY
@Roger Moore: Good one! They would lap it up.
Paul in KY
@Betty Cracker: Agree. I would think he’s apologized for his stupid behavior.