Four Directions getting out the vote in the Reno-Sparks area today. Snow on election day!
Open Thread with Photos from On the Ground in Reno-Sparks in NevadaPost + Comments (45)
by WaterGirl| 45 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
Four Directions getting out the vote in the Reno-Sparks area today. Snow on election day!
Open Thread with Photos from On the Ground in Reno-Sparks in NevadaPost + Comments (45)
This post is in: Open Threads, Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022
Four Directions is having unexpected last-minute expenses due to 1) cold weather increased transportation costs as they try to get people to the polls, 2) picking up some slack from another organization that wasn’t able to proceed as expected at the last minute, and 3) legal costs related to shenanigans with polling places for the Native vote.
Four Directions is filing emergency motions – there is some wild west shit going on as they try to keep Native folks from voting in NV. Some of the counties are acting in direct violation of court orders, and one of the things Four Directions is doing is trying to get back 4 hours of time that was lost at the polls over the last 4 days.
Right now, our Four Directions contact is charging everything to his personal credit card, and I’d like for us to help them out if we can.
We raised what the minimum they needed, and got them $2,500 more so they have some wiggle room for whatever else pops up today. They send their profound thanks.
Donate
Flash Fundraising: Four Directions Last-Minute Help NeededPost + Comments (111)
by WaterGirl| 29 Comments
This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging
We needed our annual trip to the Eastern Sierra mountains for Fall foliage even more than usual this year, but life complications made things very difficult and we had to change our plans a couple times in the days leading up to our trip. We finally decided to stay at French Camp (Rock Creek) and use that as our jumping off point since it would provide us decent cell service even while camping and easy access to Rt. 395, allowing us to easily hop on the road and drive wherever the best color would be. It’s also right near the legendary Tom’s Place restaurant/store/resort.
Warning: most of the Fall Color (aspens) will be in parts 2-4
On The Road – UncleEbeneezer – Stay Gold, Eastern Sierra (1/4)Post + Comments (29)
Located at the bottom of Upper Rock Creek Rd., French Camp is a lovely campground that is mostly high-desert in feel, with lots of pinyon pines. On the backside of the large loop, however, there are a couple campsites by the creek with some scattered aspens that were just starting to show color so we parked at site #65 and started setting up camp.
This post is in: Open Threads
I had to plan ahead for my election-related stress-eating on Tuesday because my car goes in the shop on Tuesday afternoon. I laid in my stress-eating items ahead of time.
On Tuesday, my feelings are going to taste like kettle corn.
I had considered making a pecan pie as a “break glass in case of emergency” option for moments of desperation, but it’s too sweet to eat much of it, so I had to go with Haagen Dazs cookies and cream ice cream for that.
I thought I might also make my signature sour cherry mojitos, but I think I’ll save those for later this week when we can celebrate some victories. They won’t all be victories, but hopefully there will be enough!
How about you guys? When you eat your feelings, what do they taste like?
And if you’re too evolved to stress eat, what are you doing on Balloon Juice? :-)
Open thread.
When You Eat Your Feelings, What Do They Taste Like?Post + Comments (156)
by WaterGirl| 41 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
My #25 Kitty Sunflower Love quilt block arrived, and it’s just stunning. I have tried 3 times to catch a picture of it, and none of my photos did it justice, so I gave up. A photographer I am not!
Here’s the photo Quiltingfool took of the first #25, and that doesn’t do it justice, either!
I think everyone has probably received all of their quilt blocks by now – please speak up if you haven’t. The #25 was definitely the most complex and time consuming, so that one got mailed out last.
What did the rest of you think of your Ukraine quilt blocks?
Open thread.
My #25 Kitty Sunflower Love Arrived and It’s Just StunningPost + Comments (41)
by WaterGirl| 51 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
Our friends at Four Directions sent me a link to the Jon Ralston story from Sunday’s Nevada Independent.
The headline: Crystal ball says Cortez Masto hangs on, Sisolak doesn’t and Dems retain two of three House seats
This quote from Jon Ralston below is only half of what he says before he shares his predictions: (bolding is mine)
Let me start this biennial venture into brave foolishness with a remembrance of things past.
I engage in this Proustian exercise to make myself feel better as I make election predictions, not shirking from my annual tradition, in the most puzzling and difficult year since I began.
I think pundits should make predictions based on data, which is important; on experience, which can provide insight; and by gut, which is born of the first two. I also think one needs to provide a rationale for why one’s crystal ball says what it says.
Here is my theory of the case:
The early voting numbers don’t indicate a red wave, just the possibility of one if everything breaks right for Republicans. This is not like 2014, when all the early voting data confirmed a red wave – I knew after a couple of days – and it was just a question of how many boats would be lifted by the red tide.
This year, the Democrats have a slight advantage with more mail to come enhancing that edge. The Democrats are in the game — a game they have no right to be in, considering President Biden’s subterranean numbers and sticker shock everywhere Nevadans shop. The Reid Machine, even with Harry gone, is a real thing, folks; it was built a decade and a half ago or so, and it is still around, this time a ship sailing into what may turn out to be a perfect storm.
The real mystery is what Election Day turnout will look like: Are tens of thousands of Republicans really waiting for Tuesday, or are Clark Democrats ready to flood the zone? And will inclement weather deter Election Day voters while neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays the postmen from the swift completion of their appointed rounds?
The two top of ticket races – U.S. Senate and governor – are very difficult to pick.
I would not be surprised by any outcome — both incumbents win, both incumbents lose or a split decision. I am even more at sea in the governor’s race than the Senate contest for a variety of reasons – see below – but mostly because I can logically chart a path for Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto to hang on, but it is not so simple to find one for Gov. Steve Sisolak. She has a weaker opponent, probably will run stronger in populous Clark and may just win Washoe. Sisolak may have been harder to tie to Biden – although Sheriff Joe Lombardo’s campaign has done its best with those tricky sign pairings – but the COVID hangover, his weakness in the rurals and the adverse environment make finding a road to victory more difficult. Oh, it’s there — if non-major party voters tilt Democratic and if Lombardo has not consolidated the GOP base because Joey Bag of Hydroxychloroquine has poisoned the well. I would not be surprised at all to see the governor get re-elected.
If Clark turnout increases enough because of thousands of mail ballots yet to be counted this week, thus diminishing the rural GOP landslide, Washoe County will be The Biggest Little Cincher. It could change everything.
Before I get to all my predictions, my theory of the case in the down-ballot races is simple: I don’t believe Nevadans, if they are paying attention, will act against their own interests. At least I hope not. There are three manifestly unqualified people running for important state offices, all three of them obviously dangerous and whose election would be inimical to Nevada’s interests. I don’t think it matters at all that they are Republican; I see no evidence they believe in any principle except conspiracies and grievances they have conveniently concocted.
Having said all of that, I can dither no more:
Only then does he share his predictions.
Cortez-Masto is predicted to win! The governor will lose! Oh no, I love Susie Lee and she’s going to lose!
Once more, because we probably all need to be reminded…
No one can fucking predict the results of the election because if anyone has an accurate voter turnout model for this year, it will be a total fluke, mostly dumb luck.
These next few days will be less of a roller coaster ride if we can all remember that.
Open thread.
Headlines & Quick Takes Don’t Tell the Whole StoryPost + Comments (51)
by WaterGirl| 18 Comments
This post is in: Albatrossity, On The Road, Photo Blogging
This week we start with Albatrossity (surprise!) and then Argiope takes us to Catalunya, which is near Barcelona. We have the start of a series from the Eastern Sierra from UncleEb, TKH takes us to the Grand Canyon, and we have the start of a series in Canada and New England from Elma.
A couple of lingering summer birds are featured this week, with migrants and winter residents making up the remainder of the batch. Winter is coming. It’s also time to let you know that I have assembled two calendars for 2023. Those are the perennially popular Birds of Flyover Country and the back-by-popular-demand Bird Butt version. Those links take you to the Lulu.com site, where you can preview each of these and place your orders. Thanks for your support in the past!
On The Road – Albatrossity – Chasing Summer Into Fall in Flyover Country 6Post + Comments (18)
Gray Catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis) linger here as long as the pokeberries and dogwood berries hold out. In recent years a few have overwintered in Flyover Country, but most of them will be in the backyards and thickets of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Click for larger image.