When facing defeat, some retreat to the hills and vow to fight on unto the 12th generation, while others angle to achieve the most advantageous terms of surrender. Chunky Bobo signals his affinity for the former group but urges them to be open to the tactics of the latter:
Unless something dramatic changes in the drift of public opinion, the future of religious liberty on these issues is going to depend in part on the magnanimity of gay marriage supporters — the extent to which they are content with political, legal and cultural victories that leave the traditional view of marriage as a minority perspective with some modest purchase in civil society, versus the extent to which they decide to use every possible lever to make traditionalism as radioactive in the America of 2025 as white supremacism or anti-Semitism are today.
And I can imagine a scenario in which a more drawn-out and federalist march to “marriage equality in 50 states,” with a large number of (mostly southern) states hewing to the older definition for much longer than the five years that gay marriage advocates currently anticipate, ends up encouraging a more scorched-earth approach to this battle, with less tolerance for the shrinking population of holdouts, and a more punitive, “they’re getting what they deserve” attitude toward traditionalist religious bodies in particular.
If religious conservatives are, in effect, negotiating the terms of their surrender, it’s at least possible that those negotiations would go better if they were conducted right now, in the wake of a Roe v. Wade-style Supreme Court ruling, rather than in a future where the bloc of Americans opposed to gay marriage has shrunk from the current 44 percent to 30 percent or 25 percent, and the incentives for liberals to be magnanimous in victory have shrunk apace as well.
[Paragraph breaks added because…damn–Ed.]
Douthat couches the debate in the “religious liberty” framework, which is pure bullshit. No one is trying to force Cardinal Dolan to sanctify same-sex marriages. On the contrary, it is the pro-marriage equality side that requires the “religious liberty” to tell a celibate man in a dress and red beanie to stop trying to control our sex lives and secular social commitments.
But I think Douthat may be right about how the loss of this battle in the larger culture war will play out. Will they retreat to the jungles of Guam and hold out for decades or accept the victory of the godless and move on?