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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The revolution will be supervised.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Decision time: keep arguing about the last election, or try to win the next one?

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

We are learning that “working class” means “white” for way too many people.

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

So fucking stupid, and still doing a tremendous amount of damage.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

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Checking in with the Walz Family

by @heymistermix.com|  November 11, 20247:09 pm| 123 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Checking in with the Walz Family
Hope posted this on her Instagram.

I went to TikTok to watch a video, and the algorithm pushed Hope Walz’ TikTok to me.  She was very active on the campaign trail with her family, and she’s got some raw, honest reactions there.

Anyway, I think Tim Walz was the big discovery of this cycle.  He’s still Governor of Minnesota until 2026, and there are no term limits.  Going forward, I’d like to see him play a bigger role in the party as the progressive  Dad.  I think he did a good job on the VP run, given the constraints, and I don’t think that VP candidates get the same one and done treatment as Presidential candidates.

That said, another Californian VP, Dick Nixon, came back after losing a Presidential run, so don’t rule out Kamala Harris.

Checking in with the Walz FamilyPost + Comments (123)

Compare and Contrast Two Post-Mortems

by @heymistermix.com|  November 11, 20242:43 pm| 412 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

A Couple of Honest Post-Mortems

AOC asked her Instagram followers who voted for Trump to give their reasons (cut/pasted above).  She also answered a number of questions.  Her explanation for the degree New York shifted red was because Trump campaigned there and Harris didn’t.  (That’s an explanation, not a criticism, she made it clear that the Harris campaign was effective in slowing the red shift in states where they campaigned.). She also noted that many immigrants who could vote have family who couldn’t and they have been waiting decades for immigration reform, and as well they’re quite susceptible to messaging saying that the asylum seekers were unjustly moved to the front of the line (us vs. them works, she noted).  Overall a pretty honest appraisal of the election, as far as I’m concerned.

Some of the comments from her followers are relevant to something Adam mentioned about conspiracy theories in his post today.  The notion that we can spin some sort of election interference tale from undervotes is the stupid opposite of what we should be thinking about undervoters.  People who voted for Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank were demonstrating their political ignorance and their belief that Trump alone is the savior — they don’t trust the down ballot of either party.  I’d like to find a few and look at their media diet, not spin some grifter conspiracy.  And they’re evidence for some hope when Trump isn’t on the ballot, since they probably won’t be voting.

Let’s move on to the dishonest takes by DC insider Democratic consultants.  This piece is a good roundup of comments from a few of them.  They’re the people getting invited onto CNN to spout off.  Philip Reines, some Clintonworld advisor, went on CNN to say that Democrats’ kowtowed to the extremes of the party (including trans activists).  Another blamed us cuddling up to the Columbia protesters.  A third, anonymous Hill source, said it was because we didn’t give enough credit to Trump for his insights on the border.  The piece ends with this:

The ugly truth for these people is that Kamala Harris ran as right-wing a campaign as any Democrat in living memory. She downplayed discussions of her race and gender. She bent over backward to welcome billionaires, corporate titans, and Republicans into the fold. She told Black men that one of her priorities for them was…crypto. She made her past as a prosecutor a cornerstone of her pitch.  She bragged about owning a Glock and joked that she would shoot people who broke into her house. She stuffed the Democratic National Convention to the gills with cops and Border Patrol agents while crushing even the tiniest dissent over her support for the genocide in Gaza. She promised the most “lethal” military in the world. She was seemingly joined at the hip with Liz Cheney for weeks. She even praised Dick Cheney! It’s hard to think of what more she could have done to satisfy the people clamoring for her to pander to conservatives.

But admitting that would mean that the CNN favorites and the anonymous politicos had to confront an even more uncomfortable reality: that, ideologically at least, Harris ran the campaign of their wildest dreams, and got crushed.

Maybe this is a little harshly worded, but whatever you think of the Harris campaign (and I think it was pretty good), the fantasy “woke” campaign that these consultants are straw manning never existed.  Harris didn’t say word one about trans folk.  Walz was put on a tight leash and was coached to look for points of agreement with Vance in the debate, which was a huge missed opportunity.  Harris’ Gaza position was pretty much Biden’s.

She really was the consultant’s ideal candidate, except for being female and black. These people need to be ignored the next time around, and we don’t need to listen to their fairy tales about how Democrats should become even more like Republicans to win.

Compare and Contrast Two Post-MortemsPost + Comments (412)

Significant Read: ‘Tracking the U.S. bird flu outbreak has been hard. It’s about to get harder’

by Anne Laurie|  November 11, 202412:15 pm| 51 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, H5N1 Bird Flu

Trying to spot human cases of #H5N1 #birdflu in the US this summer has been a challenge. The coming cold-and-flu season is going to make it way harder. Thoughts from @MarionKoopmans, @PeacockFlu, @florian_krammer & others. https://t.co/MN7lntguYU

— Helen Branswell ???? (@HelenBranswell) October 28, 2024

This article was published at the end of October, when it looked like we might be lucky enough to be living under an administration that understood science, not to mention law. Conditions which, of course, no longer hold… Helen Branswell, at STATNews — “Health systems will likely struggle to differentiate the virus from flu-like illnesses”:

If one can point to anything good about the H5N1 bird flu outbreak in dairy cattle — to be honest, there’s nothing good about this situation — it’s the timing. Transmission of the virus through U.S. dairy herds took off when last winter’s flu season was effectively over, making the job of looking for people infected with H5N1 an easier task in theory, though there have been plenty of human hurdles impeding those efforts.

But in the months since the outbreak was first detected, the spread of the virus in cows has not been contained, with infections reported in 380 herds in 14 states so far. Now, with cold and flu season looming, it is likely to become significantly more difficult for the country’s public health departments to track the virus.

In the weeks and months to come, when dairy farmworkers or others culling infected poultry flocks develop influenza-like symptoms, what ails them could be a common cold, Covid-19, regular influenza, or a bird flu virus. Spotting a new flu virus before it starts to transmit more easily among humans and stopping that spread — if it’s possible — could make the difference between a close call and something no one wants, another pandemic.

Trying to do this surveillance at any point in the year is devilishly tough. Doing it in flu season will be next-level hard, experts warn.

“It’s going to be more challenging. You’re going to have more viruses that are in circulation, more cases coming forward. The labs are going to have much more to do,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s acting director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention…

You may be wondering: Can wastewater testing help in what’s going to be a more challenging situation? Long used elsewhere to detect transmission of polio viruses, it is proving to be a useful tool to detect levels of a number of pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, the cause of Covid-19. And it can detect H5N1, differentiating it from seasonal flu viruses, said Marlene Wolfe, an assistant professor of environmental health at Emory University and program director for WastewaterSCAN. But if wastewater testing turns up H5N1 virus in a community’s sewage system, it cannot say if the virus came from a person, a cow, or discarded contaminated milk.

Here are three ways in which H5N1 surveillance is about to get more difficult.

The risk of more infections and maybe worse, co-infections…
Reassortment is something flu virologist Florian Krammer worries about. “By reassorting with seasonal influenza viruses, [H5N1] could get a replication machinery that just does much better in human cells,’’ said Krammer, who teaches at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine in New York. “That could get hairy.”…

In an effort to lower the risk of a reassortment event, the CDC is calling for farmworkers who might be exposed to H5N1 to be vaccinated against seasonal flu. Knowing that many do not have health care coverage — and may be unlikely to prioritize getting a flu shot they have to pay for — the CDC is providing 100,000 doses for farmworkers in 12 of the states where H5N1 has been seen to circulate in cows. (Wyoming and Oklahoma, where the virus has also been detected in cows, declined to take part in the program, a CDC spokesperson said.)

The approach, however, is far from perfect. For starters, 100,000 doses divided by 12 states isn’t a lot of vaccine. California, for instance, is the country’s largest milk producer, with over 1,100 dairy herds in the state, and an estimated dairy farm workforce of between 17,000 and 18,000 workers. It is getting 5,000 doses of flu vaccine through the CDC program — in effect 4.5 doses per farm…

show full post on front page

Getting exposed people to get tested
Mild H5N1 cases — virtually all of the 34 cases reported in the United States this year have been mild — could be especially hard to find in winter, given that there is no culture of widespread flu testing in this country.

People rarely seek medical care when they have what seems like a garden variety influenza-like illness, known among health care providers as an ILI. Doctors typically only test for flu when someone is severely ill, at high risk of becoming seriously ill from flu because of age or underlying health conditions, or has been admitted to hospital…

Dairy farms in some states rely heavily on undocumented workers who may well be nervous about their immigration standing, especially in these turbulent political times. Take Wisconsin, for example. In the nation’s second biggest dairy-producing state, more than 10,000 undocumented workers hold down 70% of the dairy jobs, according to a survey released in April 2023 by the School for Workers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. State law bars them from driving legally, which can limit what they can do outside of work, a ProPublica report from August 2023 explained.

How realistic is it to expect workers in this situation, people who would be docked wages if they were told not to work, to seek and potentially have to pay for a test if they develop conjunctivitis or cold-like symptoms? Even if the testing is offered for free — near the farm gate, by local public health workers — what is the upside for farmworkers? For their bosses?…

The workload on labs
Frontline tests typically will tell you if a person is infected with flu, and if so, whether the virus is influenza A or B. (It is believed that only influenza A viruses can trigger flu pandemics.) H5N1 is an influenza A virus, as are the H3N2 and H1N1 viruses that circulate every winter. To spot H5N1 cases — or in fact any novel flu virus that could cause a pandemic — additional testing needs to be done to tease out which flu A virus was responsible for the positive test result.

Only a portion of positive flu A tests are subtyped in this way. The CDC’s Reed said that after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, a lot of work went into determining what percentage of tests should undergo subtyping, in order to be able to detect spread of a new flu virus before it becomes a significant public health problem. The CDC called the effort “right sizing” testing. In partnership with public health laboratories, state and local health departments, and statisticians, guidance for individual jurisdictions was developed and published in 2013. It’s been updated since then, Reed said…

Don’t panic, but *do* stay vigilant. Update your vaccinations, consider your masking strategies (might want to order more of your preferred style before the incoming administration gets cute ideas about spot tariffs), and maybe dig out those bottles of hand sanitizer.

Significant Read: ‘Tracking the U.S. bird flu outbreak has been hard. It’s about to get harder’Post + Comments (51)

In the Street of the Blind, the One Eyed Man Is the Guiding Light*

by Adam L Silverman|  November 11, 202410:33 am| 149 Comments

This post is in: Elections, Elections 2024, Open Threads, Silverman on Security

What they doin ova der IS GRIFTING!!!!!

I’ve now seen several posts on social media by the usual suspects amplifying conspiratorial thinking about the 2024 election. While this stuff isn’t originating with the “hopium – we’re the resistance” grifters since 2017, they are amplifying it. No matter what Mueller She Wrote retweets, the Harris-Walz campaign is not raising post election funding to do a manual recount in the battleground states. That isn’t going to happen under any circumstances.

No matter what Pam Keith from Florida tweets, she doesn’t understand that undervotes are regular occurrences and that an undervote, or undervoted ballot, is any ballot where the top line/highest office on the ballot was voted for, but one, more, or all of the rest of the races on the ballot where not voted. No one tampered with the actual ballots.

There are some legitimate calls for people to phone bank to cure ballots for the still being counted PA Senate race and helping out on that is legit, but that’s not what’s being peddled. Again. By the usual suspects looking to steal your money.

These two, and dozens and dozens of others, have stolen enough of you money, your time, your hope over the past decade. DO NOT GIVE THEM ANY MORE OF ANY OF IT!!!!!

The only way out of where we’re are, as I’ve repeatedly explained, is Counter-Guerrilla Warfare+Counter-Political Action+Civic Action. You all did an amazing job on the Civic Action. With a few notable exceptions, the people – primarily the Democratic elected and appointed officials –  that had to do the Counter-Guerrilla Warfare and the Counter-Political Action didn’t do their jobs.

Maybe someone will step up and fill the gap of their myriad failures, maybe not, but you now need to protect your time, your finances, and your physical and emotional well being. You need to do this in order to be able protect yourselves, your families, those that will not be able to protect themselves. We will all have to do the small work that because the people that had the power and the positions to be able to take action did not.

Don’t give these grifters, charlatans, and thieves pushing or promoting these ridiculous scenarios any more. They’ve stolen enough from you. DO NOT GIVE THEM ANY MORE!!!!!

Open thread!

*Genesis Rabbah (300-500 CE)

In the Street of the Blind, the One Eyed Man Is the Guiding Light*Post + Comments (149)

Morning Bluesky Thread

by @heymistermix.com|  November 11, 202410:18 am| 43 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Yesterday afternoon, I posted commenter Mousebumples’ Bluesky tips.  Worth a read if you’re a morning-only reader.   Like reading legacy media, being on Xitter is a habit I think we all need to break.

Speaking of habits that need to be broken, am I the only one sick and fucking tired of having to call my Democratic Senator and beg them to do the obvious, right thing?  I was on Bluesky last night and saw that someone had posted scripts to call your Senator, and a specific script for Schumer, to have them do as much as possible in the lame duck session.

First, if you are an elected official in a party that claimed that the other party was led by a fascist who will bring fascism to government, shouldn’t you be leading, not following, on doing everything possible to batten down the hatches before the fascists take over?  Or was all the talk of “fighting for you” just talk?

Second, if this is some PAC that is ginning up an issue so that you’ll use their script and maybe give them some money, that would be consistent with what I saw during this election:  “Democratic” PACs fundraising for their own benefit off of major political issues, and even for candidates who should have gotten direct donations instead of PAC-mediated one.  And I have to tell you, man I’m tired of the scammy PACvertisements that I saw this election.  I’m glad our fundraising efforts here went to legitimate organizations that actually spend their money on what they promised to do.  But it’s unfortunate that we have to put much analysis and care into finding legitimate organizations.

Finally, I’m not saying “don’t call your Senator” — I’m saying, “I wish I didn’t have to call my Senator” and I hope that we’re able to elect a few new Senators who have a bit more fire in the belly for the task at hand.

Anyway, join us at Bluesky. The end.

Morning Bluesky ThreadPost + Comments (43)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Resisting

by Anne Laurie|  November 11, 20248:46 am| 163 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat

… And have been a much happier seal!

This seal could have gone his whole life not knowing lizards exist pic.twitter.com/I84ZxHxTLX

— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) September 7, 2024


That seal is my new spirit animal. Why did I need to know about gnarly lizards?

Monday Morning Open Thread 21

On it!…

Multiple agencies are working to finalize environmental rules and policies before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. https://t.co/uiyzxv0KRp

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 9, 2024

Per the Washington Post, “Biden races to Trump-proof his climate legacy” [gift link]:

On the morning after Election Day, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan convened several of his top officials for a somber meeting.

Most officials had woken up Wednesday to the news that Donald Trump, who once vowed to eliminate the EPA in “almost every form,” would return to the White House in January. Regan sought to reassure employees that their achievements under President Joe Biden would “stand the test of time,” and he encouraged staffers to “run through the tape” and continue making progress during the 76-day lame-duck period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, EPA spokesman Nick Conger said.

In just the past two days, the administration has finalized plans to limit oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and to save an imperiled bird — the greater sage grouse — by restricting drilling, mining and livestock grazing across nearly 65 million acres of its habitat in 10 Western states. Officials have met behind closed doors to wrap up work on a study justifying the administration’s pause on approvals of new liquefied natural gas exports — a pause that Trump has promised to end on his “very first day back.” And they are hustling to issue at least a half-dozen other significant policies, affecting toxic chemicals as well as California’s push to phase out gas-powered cars and trucks by 2035.

Across the federal government, Trump’s election has set off a scramble among political appointees and career bureaucrats alike to lock in Biden’s landmark environmental initiatives. Some staffers say they learned a lesson in 2017, when Trump swiftly dismantled some of President Barack Obama’s signature environmental achievements…

show full post on front page

Perhaps no agency embodies the Biden administration’s lame-duck environmental strategy better than the EPA, which has emerged as an epicenter of the president’s ambitious climate agenda. Environmentalists said they expect the agency to take several major actions in the coming weeks touching everything from electric vehicles to toxic chemicals.

At the top of the list: Trump-proofing California’s transition to EVs. Under the Clean Air Act, California can receive a waiver from the EPA to set tougher vehicle emissions rules than those of the federal government. More than a dozen other states follow California’s stricter rules, collectively accounting for about 40 percent of the U.S. auto market.

Before Trump takes office, the EPA plans to grant California a waiver to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the plans are not yet public…

Environmentalists said they also expect the agency to finalize three rules restricting the release of toxic chemicals. One rule will ban most uses of perchloroethylene, a solvent widely used in dry cleaning that can damage the central nervous system. Another will limit the use of trichloroethylene, a chemical linked to kidney cancer that is used to make refrigerants and some household cleaning products…

With the exception of a plan to accelerate solar energy development on public lands, Interior has largely accomplished what it set out to achieve in Biden’s first term, said Aaron Weiss, deputy director of the Center for Western Priorities, a conservation group.

“From what we can tell, they’ve done a very good job lining this stuff up, so there’s not a whole lot at risk of getting punted into the next administration,” he said. “I think everyone learned that lesson in 2016.”

Monday Morning Open Thread 23

(Clay Bennett via GoComics.com)

Monday Morning Open Thread: ResistingPost + Comments (163)

Life In A Eudora Welty Story

by Betty Cracker|  November 11, 20246:39 am| 120 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

A week from today, I’m hoping we will wake up in our own house. Bill checked on our place over the weekend. Previously, he had to visit by boat, but this time, he drove as far as he could on the crappy dirt road until the water got too deep and walked the rest of the way home in waders.

The water level drop is accelerating, and the calculations I made in mid-October about how long we’d need a flood refuge seem to be bearing out, but it will be close. As of this weekend, there’s less than a foot of water downstairs, but since it’s a stilt house and the living quarters are upstairs, the salient issue is whether the road is passable. Not quite yet but maybe next weekend. We’ll just have to wait and see.

***

Tree-lined lake in the sunshine

Meanwhile, life in a Eudora Welty story continues here in town. The neighborhood we’re in could best be described as a downscale vacation spot. There are lots of lakes connected by canals and bordered on one side by our flooded river, so water levels are up here too but in a less bothersome way. The houses are mostly small, wooden structures that look like they were built without regard to codes in the 1950s.

My family has been in this county for generations, so the oddball vibes are familiar. The swampy portion of the county where we normally live is a Southern Gothic tale too but with outlooks shaped by isolation, whereas here the quirky characters are more densely packed and interactive.

show full post on front page

For example, there’s a stout middle-aged woman who lives one street over who comes out on her back porch in a housecoat and bellows commands and entreaties and criticisms of personal conduct at a horde of feral cats several times each day. It was startling at first, but no one who lives around here pays her any mind, and we hardly notice now either. Even the dogs quit barking about it.

There’s a man who lives on a screened porch down the street. He looks to be in his late 40s or early 50s and resembles a wiry, grizzled Mario Bro, complete with the newsboy cap, boots and elaborate mustache.

His porch is attached to his late mother’s house, but he can’t live inside because it’s a hoarder nightmare that has never been addressed in the years since the matriarch’s death because reasons. He hasn’t been allowed to drive for many years but flies around the neighborhood on a bicycle, always with a rod and reel (bungee-corded to the frame) that he uses to fish at a nearby lake.

There’s a community store that sells groceries, sandwiches and bait about a half a mile away. I was pulling out of the driveway to visit the store at opening time a few days ago because I was out of half-and-half and Bill wanted a grilled sandwich.

Mario rode his bike past before I pulled out of the driveway, and I wondered if I’d have an opportunity to pass him on the curvy road. The opportunity didn’t materialize because he was riding so fast he beat me to the store.

I went inside and ordered the sandwich while Mario futzed around in the parking lot. The proprietor told me he’d just fired up the grill, so it would take awhile. I took a seat at one of the tables and started reading a dog-eared angler magazine while I waited.

Mario came in, greeted the proprietor and started futzing around at the courtesy coffee station behind me. I regretted my seat choice because strangers futzing around behind me make me nervous. But soon enough he was out the door, paper coffee cup and fishing rod in one hand while he dragged a kayak that had been stashed behind the store into the lake and set off.

After the proprietor prepared Bill’s sandwich, he let me know that it came with a free cup of noodle salad and a “crokersodey,” which I could retrieve from the refrigerated display case along the wall. I had no idea what a “crokersodey” was, and I was too embarrassed to ask, but I take pretty much all free shit offered to me, so I was determined to identify the mystery item.

The proprietor had an accent I could not begin to identify. It did not seem to be a foreign accent, and usually, I can identify an American accent to within a 150 mile radius. (Just the other day while picking our mail up from the P.O., I asked the clerk if he was from the Buffalo or Rochester area, and he was delighted to respond that he was a Finger Lakes region native. That one was easy; he sounded just like my in-laws.)

Upon examining the store’s display case, I deduced that “crokersodey” was a Kroger store brand cola. I don’t think Kroger has stores around here, but they do deliver food — I frequently see their delivery trucks. Anyhoo, mystery solved, except I still don’t know where that guy is from. Maybe I’ll figure it out this week.

***

Later, Bill and I met friends at a fish camp juke joint that had a live band playing blues and classic rock. The outing was balm for my soul, mostly because I could look at the water from the pavilion and notice the comings and goings of the waterfowl, just as I do at home.

During a break between sets, I saw Mario approaching in his kayak, which was equipped with an elaborate whistle. He blew it before coming ashore, and it was as loud as a steamboat.

Mario beached his kayak on the riverbank, walked up to the fish camp cook shack and ordered a sandwich and a coke, then returned to the lake. Back at our rental around sunset, I saw him fly past on his bike toward his screened porch. Didn’t look like he had a catch.

***

So, another week, then, hopefully, back home. Last week was difficult for us all for obvious reasons. A national catastrophe looms, and I am acutely aware of it at all times, but with so much other shit going on, it’s background noise, like the cat-shouter lady. That’s probably a mercy.

Open thread!

Life In A Eudora Welty StoryPost + Comments (120)

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