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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

I really should read my own blog.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

That meeting sounds like a shotgun wedding between a shitshow and a clusterfuck.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

A tremendous foreign policy asset… to all of our adversaries.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

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War for Ukraine Day 991: Trying Something a Bit Different

by Adam L Silverman|  November 10, 20247:43 pm| 38 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing well. She’s sitting next to me on the sofa chilling out. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I’ve created a curated list of accounts on BlueSky that either mirror their hellsite accounts that I used regularly or are people I would occasionally post in the updates. It doesn’t have everyone I want, but a lot of them have the imagery and videos we’re now missing without the hellsite embeds, so I’m going to be using more of them. A number of the usual sources do have accounts, but they’re basically dormant. Hopefully, they’ll pick up posting at BlueSky given the Starlink Snowflake’s malignancy site.

As of 6:30 PM EST/1:30 AM local time in Ukraine, all of eastern and central Ukraine is under air raid alert. Most likely another  thermobaric Shahed drone swarms.

Another night. Another air raid siren in Kyiv. Terror never stops…

#UkrainianView

— Andrii Katriuk 🇺🇦 (@andriikatriuk.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 5:31 PM

Overnight, Russia launched another massive drone attack. Out of 145(!) launched Shahed drones, 129 were taken down (62 regular, 67 electronic warfare). Another 10 left Ukrainian airspace in the direction of Russia, Belarus and Moldova.

[image or embed]

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:05 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

This Week, We Have Important Decisions from Our Partners – Address by the President

10 November 2024 – 20:10

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

First of all, I’d like to express gratitude to all our warriors who ensure the effectiveness of our drone strikes. Everyone can see the results. Drones on the front lines, as well as our long-range drones deep in Russian territory. Russian military facilities are becoming increasingly accessible to our warriors. I am grateful to the Security Service of Ukraine and the Special Operations Forces. Russians won’t be able to hide their military depots, airfields, and military-industrial enterprises. The efforts of all those who destroy Russian equipment on the front line are also vital. In particular, the special forces of the Security Service of Ukraine have already destroyed over 1,300 Russian tanks alone. Every eighth Russian tank destroyed by Ukraine is the achievement of the guys from the Security Service of Ukraine. Gratitude also goes to the warriors of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. To all units that are carrying out missions both in the eastern part of our country – in battle – and behind enemy lines. Thank you!

This week, we also have important decisions from our partners. The ones that really help us. France has made a decision on the missile package. We also continue with France an exceptionally valuable training program for our warriors. Thank you for that!

We are working with our partners from the United States on new defense packages that bolster our air defense system. This is critical as we head into winter, facing ongoing Russian strikes. We need real progress on long-range capabilities as well. There is now a decision allowing American contractors to work in Ukraine for equipment repair and maintenance, which will significantly speed up these processes.

I am also grateful to Canada for working with us on the supply of additional NASAMS air defense systems. This week, the UK also made a new decision on sanctions against Russian entities involved in the war effort – this is also very important. Thank you! All Russian companies and individuals supporting Russia’s defense industry must be isolated globally to weaken Russia’s ability to evade genuine diplomacy and fuel the war further. Everyone in the world needs sanctions to first and foremost undermine Putin’s self-confidence. This is absolutely realistic.

A new military package from Lithuania is also being prepared. We are also working together to raise funds for weapons procurement and production in Ukraine. Sweden has made new commitments as well, in both civilian and military support, especially regarding our maritime security.

And, of course, we are grateful to each of our partners worldwide, to all political and community leaders who are committed to ensuring that genuine diplomacy succeeds. We understand very clearly that diplomacy has no prospects without strength. But without a clear understanding of diplomatic goals, weapons alone will not do the job. That’s why strength and diplomacy must work hand in hand. This is the only way to secure a lasting peace and to prevent any recurrence of this kind of war. And this is entirely possible. Thank you to everyone who is helping! Glory to our warriors, glory to all our people! To all Ukrainian citizens!

Glory to Ukraine!

“Ceasefire first and then we will see.
Who is WE? Are your children dying? Do they die there? Are your houses getting destroyed?”
– President Zelensky slams ‘couch experts’.
(3 parts. See below)

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— Natalka (@natalkakyiv.bsky.social) November 8, 2024 at 10:13 AM

The cost:

British volunteer Callum Tindal-Draper, 22, died defending Ukraine against Russia on Nov. 5. The former NHS worker from Cornwall was killed at an observation post.

“He fought till he could no longer hold them off,” his mother said. He’ll be buried in Ukraine.

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 9:25 AM

The Chief Rabbi of Ukraine:

“Prime Minister of Israel understood that the drones Iran and Russia are shelling us with would fly into Israel after Iran upgrades them.”

– Moshe Reuven Azman, the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine

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— Natalka (@natalkakyiv.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 1:48 PM

Georgia:

Make Europe strong again👏🏼

Tata Chemia #Georgia🤝 #Europe #Tbilisi💕
@tchemia

That’s how our Sunday evening looks like✊🏼

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— Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer (@margareterosali.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 5:07 PM

Gocha Gogsadze (Little Soldier Fella)
@fella_soldier #AgainstRussianLaw
·
5 Std.
ALL EYES ON #GEORGIA 💕👀 #Europe

HAPPENING NOW:
In Republic of Georgia, citizens protest hijacked parliamentary elections in the streets and demand new elections

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— Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer (@margareterosali.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 5:11 PM

France:

🚀 France announces transfer of about ten SCALP missiles to Ukraine

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— Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 (@pravda.ua) November 10, 2024 at 5:07 PM

From Ukrainska Pravda:

French Minister of National Defence Sébastien Lecornu has said that Paris will continue to provide military support to Ukraine following the election of Donald Trump as US president.

Source: Lecornu in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche; European Pravda reports

Details: Lecornu said that France should support Ukraine on a long-term basis, “because it will also allow the Ukrainian authorities to consider political decisions when they decide to do so”.

“Military support is very important, and even when the war is over, we must continue to strengthen the Ukrainian army,” he added.

Among other things, the French defence minister announced the extension of the training programme for Ukrainian soldiers. 2,000 soldiers are being trained under the guidance of French soldiers and on French equipment as part of the programme.

“Secondly, we will continue our support. As winter sets in, Russia’s deep strikes on Ukrainian territory are likely to intensify. We will again supply Mistral missiles (for anti-aircraft missile systems – ed.), in particular to protect combat areas.

And in order to enable Ukraine to strike behind the line of contact, in the last few days, I have signed a decision on a new transfer of about ten SCALP missiles, as promised to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by the President of France,” Lecornu added.

SCALPs are long-range air-to-surface missiles, the transfer of which was first announced by France in early 2024.

Moreover, French media unofficially reported last month that France would hand over the first batch of three Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine in early 2025.

Poland:

🇵🇱 Poland will not increase its involvement in the war in Ukraine due to the expected decline in US interest in aiding Kyiv, says Polish PM Donald Tusk. He added that at the same time, nobody wants Ukraine to weaken or even capitulate.
www.rmf24.pl/polityka/new…

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.bsky.social) November 9, 2024 at 4:20 PM

From RMF24: (machine translated)

During the meeting with journalists, the prime minister said, among others on talks held at the EU summit in Budapest. There is no doubt that this one the new political landscape is a serious challenge for everyone, especially in the context of the possible end of the Russian-Ukrainian war as a result of the agreement of, for example, the President of Russia and the new President of the United States. This was also talked about as a possible one – in the coming days, but months – of the script Tusk emphasized.

We will coordinate very intensively in the coming days with countries that have a very similar view of the geopolitical and transatlantic situation, and in Ukraine. We can soon expect the visit of the President of France to Warsaw, the Prime Minister of Great Britain or mine in London (…) In a few days we will be hosting NATO Secretary General, I will also visit Stockholm (…) All in the context of the new challenges facing our homeland, the entire region, the European Union and the Western Community – he announced.

During the Saturday press conference, the prime minister emphasized that “everyone without exception – whether it was the president of Turkey or the prime minister of Great Britain or EU leaders – wants to take greater responsibility for maintaining good transatlantic relations, regardless of the mood in which they adopted the election results.”

Everyone is aware that a very difficult time awaits us. And Poland is in a special place: maybe not in the eye of this potential cyclone, but in a very difficult place. That is why it is very important for us to remain calm, define our interests well, and we must also carefully read the intentions of both the largest players and the President of Ukraine. The situation and possible decisions regarding Ukraine must (…) guarantee the security of Poland – Tusk pointed out, emphasizing that the issue of security should not become an excuse for political struggle in the country.

The US:

Trump speaks with Putin and advises him not to escalate Ukraine war – report #Ukraine

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— 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) November 10, 2024 at 5:47 PM

Here are the details from The Guardian:

Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin on Thursday and discussed the war in Ukraine, the Washington Post reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The US president-elect advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of “Washington’s sizeable military presence in Europe”, the Post reported.

It added that Trump expressed interest in follow-up conversations on “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon”.

During the election campaign, Trump said he would find a solution to end the war “within a day”, but did not explain how he would do so.

According to one former US official who was familiar with the call and spoke to the Washington Post, Trump likely does not want to begin his second presidential term with an escalation in the Ukraine war, “giving him incentive to want to keep the war from worsening”.

In a statement to the outlet, Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said: “President Trump won a historic election decisively and leaders from around the world know America will return to prominence on the world stage. That is why leaders have begun the process of developing stronger relationships with the 45th and 47th president because he represents global peace and stability.”

Trump had also spoken to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday, according to media reports.

On Friday, the Kremlin said Putin was ready to discuss Ukraine with Trump but that it did not mean that he was willing to alter Moscow’s demands.

On 14 June, Putin set out his terms for an end to the war: Ukraine would have to drop its Nato ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from all of the territory of four regions claimed by Russia.

Ukraine rejected that, saying it would be tantamount to capitulation, and that Zelenskyy has put forward a “victory plan” that includes requests for additional military support from the west.

The rotten apple…

🙄 No words…

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 6:42 AM

The Ukrainians struck Moscow with their own drone swarm this morning.

Russian airspace was invaded by long-range drones last night, many of which reached their targets or were shot down over different regions. These are the drones that were shot down over the Moscow region.

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— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 3:23 AM

According to official information from Russian news agencies, today’s drone attack on the Moscow region was the largest attack of the war. Reports indicate at least 100 drones.
However, earlier last night, Russia also launched a record number of Geran-type drones towards Ukraine, around 150.

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— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 3:29 AM

Residents of Sofyino, a suburb of Moscow, are showing the aftermath of the drone attack.

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— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 3:33 AM

Additional footage of unidentified drones filmed over the Moscow region this morning.

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— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 3:46 AM

From The Guardian:

Ukraine has carried out its biggest drone strike on Moscow since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian media said on Sunday, as the Kremlin launched its own record air attack over Ukraine.

Three airports in the Russian capital were temporarily closed and flights were diverted. At least one person was injured. Russia said its air defences shot down 70 drones, nearly half of them in the skies above Moscow and the rest in western Russia.

The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said it successfully targeted an ammunition dump near the Russian city of Bryansk. Video showed multiple explosions coming from warehouses on the military site. Fires could be seen burning in the night sky.

Other footage posted on Russian Telegram channels recorded drones buzzing above urban areas including suburbs of multistorey buildings and a lorry park.

Ukrainian commentators said the strike on Moscow was in response to a massive Russian drone barrage directed at Kyiv on Thursday, soon after Donald Trump was elected as US president.

On Saturday and Sunday, Moscow sent over another wave of 145 drones, the largest number yet. There was damage to the Black Sea port of Odesa. Ukrainian officials said 62 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were downed and others lost en route.

Russia’s defence ministry said it had thwarted a “terrorist attack” on its territory using “airplane-type drones”. At least 36 planes were diverted, the country’s air transport agency said.

Both sides have developed innovative and increasingly sophisticated UAV programmes. Ukraine has established its own drone command and has improved the range of its systems, with attacks hundreds of kilometres into Russia. It has hit weapons storage units, oil processing facilities and enemy airstrips near the Arctic Circle, as well as naval vessels in the Caspian Sea.

Russia has begun using drones steered by fibre-optic cables in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops control a salient around the Russian town of Sudzha. The new drones cannot be jammed with regular electronic countermeasures.

The air attacks happened as Russia reportedly massed 50,000 soldiers to launch a major assault aimed at recapturing Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk oblast.

The force, which includes North Korean reinforcements, is likely to attack in the coming days, according to a US assessment cited on Sunday by the New York Times. Pyongyang has sent 11,000 troops to take part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week.

Russia has seized a dozen or so villages and has shrunk the area controlled by Ukraine. But despite carrying out numerous attacks – using guided bombs, kamikaze drones, and infantry groups – it has been unable to dislodge dug-in Ukrainian combat units.

More at the link.

The Ukrainians also hit Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck Russian ammunition depots in Bryansk, causing multiple explosions and a prolonged fire, with damage assessments still underway.

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— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:18 AM

👏🔥 According to head of CPD Kovalenko, BAVOVNA in Bryansk destroyed rockets for MLRS, guided aerial bombs, ammunition, artillery shells and more!

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 10:09 AM

💥🔥 AFU attacked ammunition warehouses of the 1060th logistics center (former 120th arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate) in Bryansk region, Russia, – General Staff

❗️At least 8 explosions were recorded, a strong fire continued at the facility.

[image or embed]

— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:22 AM

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed the strike on ammunition depots in the Bryansk region in Russia.

[image or embed]

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:15 AM

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Ukrainian UAVs attacked ammunition depots belonging to the 1060th Logistics Centre (formerly the 120th Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate) in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast on the night of 9-10 November.

Source: Ukraine’s General Staff

Details: The Ukrainian military noted that at least eight explosions had been recorded.

Quote: “Objective monitoring results indicate the presence of at least two seats of fire within the military unit’s territory, along with signs of secondary detonation.

An intense fire was still raging at the facility in Bryansk Oblast as of 06:00.”

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Kursk operational zone: two Bradley IFVs of the 47th Mechanised Brigade mow down a Russian tree line, survive grenade launcher and FPV hits and successfully disengage, preserving their vehicles and experienced crews.
t.me/brygada47/1050

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 6:28 PM

In central Kursk, an impromptu protest is underway by evacuees from the Sudzha district and the border area, demanding better living conditions. Local authorities are deleting online calls for the protest and trying to disperse the crowd.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:13 AM

50,000 Russian and North Korean troops are reportedly preparing to launch a counteroffensive in the Kursk region in the coming days, reports NYT. #Ukraine #Russia #NorthKorea
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/10/u…

[image or embed]

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 8:27 AM

From The NY Times:

The Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares to begin an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.

A new U.S. assessment concludes that Russia has massed the force without having to pull soldiers out of Ukraine’s east — its main battlefield priority — allowing Moscow to press on multiple fronts simultaneously.

Russian troops have been clawing back some of the territory that Ukraine captured in Kursk this year. They have been attacking Ukrainian positions with missile strikes and artillery fire, but they have not yet begun a major assault there, U.S. officials said.

Ukrainian officials say they expect such an attack involving the North Korean troops in the coming days.

For now, the North Koreans are training with Russian forces in the far western part of Kursk.

The Russian-North Korean offensive looms as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to re-enter office with a stated goal of ending the war quickly. Mr. Trump has said little about how he would settle the conflict, but Vice President-elect JD Vance has outlined a plan that would allow Russia to keep the territory it has seized in Ukraine.

More at the link.

Kherson Oblast:

🇺🇦🍉 Today is the second anniversary of the liberation of the right bank of Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

[image or embed]

— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 5:35 PM

Krynky, Kherson Oblast:

KRYNKY Bridgehead. Destroyed but Unconquered. Kherson Region | @LibKos & @ukrinformtvideo Present #Ukraine

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— 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) November 10, 2024 at 4:58 PM

Here’s the full video, followed by it’s description:

Premiered 4 hours ago #UATV #KrynkyBridgehead #KhersonRegion

The story of the struggle for a small village in the Kherson region, of which nothing remains but a mention on a map and a short entry on Wikipedia. Occupied by Russian troops from the first days of the war, a small village in a once picturesque area witnessed the incredible heroism, victory and courage of the Ukrainian Marines. Having crossed the Dnipro River and carried out an extremely difficult operation with a small combat team, our soldiers managed to hold the Krynky bridgehead in unrealistic conditions, in full view and reach of the enemy, under continuous fire from all possible weapons. This is a film about how to survive and get out of hell. It is a living testimony of those who saw death and came back to life. The authors of the video are Ukrainian photojournalists Kostiantyn and Vlada Liberov ‪@LibKos‬ . Directed, edited and produced by the Multimedia Department of Ukrinform news agency ‪@ukrinformtvideo‬ .

Kurakhove:

Russians launch three-way pincer to encircle Ukraine’s key hub Kurakhove

Moscow’s forces are advancing on Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast from three directions: south from captured Selydove, north from Bohoiavlenka, and along the eastern axis.

[image or embed]

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 5:00 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

Russian forces are attempting a pincer movement to encircle Kurakhove, a key Ukrainian strongpoint in the southwestern Donetsk Oblast, despite suffering heavy losses.

Kurakhove, home to one of Ukraine’s largest thermal power plants that once supplied electricity to much of Donetsk Oblast, is a crucial defensive hub protecting Ukrainian positions west of Donetsk city. Its capture would give Russian forces control over key supply routes and potentially threaten Ukrainian defenses across the southwestern Donetsk Oblast.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported over 40 Russian attacks on Kurakhove in the past 24 hours. Russian forces are conducting the pincer operation from three directions: advancing from the east, pushing from the north after capturing Selydove, and attacking from the south near Bohoiavlenka village.

More at the link.

Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Saturday morning in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast: two civilians burned alive in a russian air strike. This is reality. Speak up now – before such cruelty becomes routine, before silence makes it acceptable.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 9, 2024 at 8:07 AM

Kupyansk direction: Fields are littered with Russian casualties. Paratroopers of the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade destroyed over a hundred Russian soldiers near the village of Kruhliakivka, Kharkiv region. t.me/noel_reports…

[image or embed]

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:14 AM

Kharkiv:

“Unbreakable” reads the sign in Kharkiv, while despair is carved into its walls. Kharkiv stands, not unbreakable, but unwilling to break, its spirit stretched thin across the ruins. Yet resilience alone cannot shield. Without action, Kharkiv’s strength may one day be written only in ruins.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 9, 2024 at 6:09 AM

Kruglyakivka, Kharkiv Oblast:

Units of the 77th Separate Air Mobile Brigade destroyed a unit of the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army of the Russian Armed Forces in the area of the settlement of Kruglyakivka in the Kharkiv region.
18+ Footage: t.me/wartranslate…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:00 AM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

A Ukrainian serviceman reports on Telegram about a buildup of Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia region for a possible offensive.
The Zaporizhzhia region and the city of Zaporizhzhia are important for Russia, which has claimed the area as its territory.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 9, 2024 at 7:13 AM

Russian units of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division gathered with military equipment in a forest in Zaporizhzhia region were hit by cluster munitions. Two heavy Russian trailers and personnel inside were destroyed. 4 vehicles, including new BMD-4s, were also hit and burned. t.me/noel_reports…

[image or embed]

— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 8:49 AM

Mariupol:

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian air defenses in occupied Mariupol, said Mariupol’s Mayor Advisor Petro Andriushchenko

The attack targeted positions along Mariupol airport-Berdyanske line, with at least four explosions heard

[image or embed]

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 2:00 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

In the occupied Mariupol, a Russian air defense base was attacked overnight on 10 November along the Mariupol Airport – Berdianske line, said Mariupol Mayor’s Advisor Petro Andriushchenko on social media.

Mariupol, a strategic Ukrainian port city on the Sea of Azov, fell to Russian forces in 2022 after a devastating siege. The city’s strategic importance lies in its position as a key industrial center and its role in potentially creating a land bridge between Russia and annexed Crimea. The city’s infrastructure was largely destroyed during the siege, with estimates suggesting that up to 90% of residential buildings were damaged or destroyed. As the human rights situation in occupied Mariupol is dire, residents of the city continue to wait for the liberation.

Earlier, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal claimed that Russian forces exported over 180,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain through the port of Mariupol in 2024.

Earlier, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal claimed that Russian forces exported over 180,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain through the port of Mariupol in 2024.

Odesa:

➡️We need strong support from our partners⬅️

During this week, our air defense forces worked night and day, protecting the sky of #Ukraine from Russian terror. Last night, #Russia launched a record number of Shaheds and other attack drones against Ukraine – 145.

–alt text⬇️ t.me/V_Zelenskiy_…

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— Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer (@margareterosali.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 1:58 PM

Here’s the footage of that chapter of Mom’s for Liberty in Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Teachers in Russia made tin foil hats to protect against NATO satellites as part of a patriotic campaign, “Helmet of the Fatherland.” The absurd task was actually a prank from a Belarusian prankster.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 9, 2024 at 8:39 AM

Northern Lights in Ukraine😍

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 10, 2024 at 4:24 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is the next Pes Patron cartoon episode:

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 991: Trying Something a Bit DifferentPost + Comments (38)

How to Bluesky

by @heymistermix.com|  November 10, 20244:53 pm| 87 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Commenter Mousebumples shares some Bluesky tips:

  • Follow a TON of people. No algorithm, so you only see what is posted by people you follow or what they reskeet.
  • https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:z3kpwld75x5aj2f7jyhuwjrw/feed/Jackals – Balloon Juice jackals feed. You can follow this without needing to follow all the Juicers, if you want
  • There are tons of feeds generally, and I think it’s fairly searchable. Find what interests you!
  • Since there’s no algorithm, if you want to share something with your own followers, you need to reskeet or quoteskeet. Liking is great… But that isn’t shown to your followers, typically (*there may be a setting to turn that on but I have that off)
  • Check out all the settings. I have a WARN IF ALT TEXT MISSING thing turned on so if I try to post an image or GIF, I remember to make it accessibility friendly.
  • Be sure to check out your default DM and autoplay settings so they match what you want.
  • Block lists are public; mute lists are not. Block as you want – the nuclear block is great. But just something to be aware of.

I’m sure I’m forgetting stuff, but hopefully all these guides help you get acclimated.

You’ll find your # to follow sweet spot, but I’m following 2K people, though I’ve been here over a year at this point…

You can find way more starter kits here – https://blueskydirectory.com/starter-packs/all

Mousebumples also shared this link for more Bluesky information.

I’ll link this post in the future to help promote Bluesky, so please add more advice in the comments below. I’m by no means a social networking expert, so everyone’s advice is welcome.

 

How to BlueskyPost + Comments (87)

Hot Takes: 14 to 18 Million Fewer Democrats Voted in 2024 than in 2022 Another One Bites the Dust

by WaterGirl|  November 10, 20241:30 pm| 192 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Activism, Open Threads, Politics

This is how it happens, right?  There’s a hot take, and it gets picked up, and 20 years later there are still arguments and accusations about who voted for Nader or how X group didn’t show up in year Y, and lie helps divide our side.

Hot takes ≠ Facts

Yeah, data and information take time, and hot takes are readily available.  Right now!!!  Because a hot take isn’t hot for very long, so everybody’s got to get theirs out there.  Because fast is more important than true.

Can we at least make a pact not to be our own worst enemy?

It’s Not About Turnout

There’s a popular and wrong theory floating around twitter that Trump’s win can be attributed to “millions of Democrats who stayed home” or “14 million missing Democratic votes”. This theory is, as far as I can tell, the result of a mistake made by people who want to run takes before all the results are in, and shows up most years. It is also extremely wrong, and the evidence so far shows turnout roughly in line with 2020.

Origins of the Take

The laziest possible turnout analysis is to load up the NYT election night page and compare the popular vote numbers at the top to the numbers in the 2020 page.

If you do that, as of right now, you see around 68 million votes for Harris, and around 81 million votes for Biden in 2020. So, 13 million missing Democratic voters, right? No, not right.

The Votes Aren’t All In Yet

Counting votes is a slow process, and some states are slower than others.

Open thread.

Hot Takes: <s>14 to 18 Million Fewer Democrats Voted in 2024 than in 2022</s> Another One Bites the DustPost + Comments (192)

Morning Reads

by @heymistermix.com|  November 10, 202412:39 pm| 77 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Morning Reads

Podcasts have the business model that you can access them for free but you have to tolerate ads.  Legacy media is so locked down that they don’t even give you one or two free page views a month.

For those of you who are interested in YouTube / TikTok feminist yv_edit’s take on why white women voted the way they did, here it is. (That’s a TikTok link, she only crossposts some of her videos on YouTube.).  In the comments yesterday, some of you didn’t like that she began with a Nick Fuentes video (the guy who goes on and on about “Your Body, My Choice”).  There’s no video like that in this post from her.

James Joyner at OTB (there’s a blast from the past) has a long post with a lot of interesting takes on the media environment.

Marci Wheeler includes this in her analysis:

WSJ has a piece describing the collapse of both legacy media and cable news. Of particular note: the referrals to legacy media started collapsing in 2023; but we know that was an intentional choice made by some of the richest men in the world to change their algorithms.

I think what she means is that social media sites tuned their algorithms to stop sending referrals to legacy media in the 2023 timeframe, but I don’t subscribe to the WSJ. It’s an interesting point, but even if something happened in 2023 that made it worse, when the advertising model collapsed and the subscription model took over, there was an inherent structural tension between the needs of social medial (keep everything in our walled garden) and traditional media like the Post and NYT (who want subscriber revenue).  You can’t keep everything in your walled garden while at the same time posting content that people can only read with a subscription.  So you tune your algorithm to news aggregators or right-wing “news sites”.  I’m not trying to excuse the social media oligarchs, just to explain it.

Finally, someone a while ago posted a Balloon-Juice “starter pack” for Bluesky.  Since we’re seeing a migration from Xitter after the election, could that person put it in the comments again, and maybe we’ll be able to add it to the sidebar.

Morning ReadsPost + Comments (77)

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Once More Unto the Boulder-Pushing Brigades

by Anne Laurie|  November 10, 20249:23 am| 357 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Remember this. Lock it in. pic.twitter.com/2uCpY2XcWD

— Willie Ross Jr. Knee Deep (@RossKneeDeep) November 9, 2024


Do these numbers look correct to you jackals? I wanna start screaming like a weasel about the Trump Recession as soon as his band of miscreants prop him up on the inaugural riser…

Elizabeth Warren: The Plan to Fight Back After 2024 Election | TIME https://t.co/qJzF2LCepY

— SKD (@sherylkayed) November 8, 2024


I still love my senior Senator — she’s an inspiration. A heartening epistle via Time, “Here’s the Plan to Fight Back”:

… As we confront a second Donald Trump presidency, we have two tasks ahead. First, try to learn from what happened. And then, make a plan…

What comes next? Trump won the election, but more than 67 million people voted for Democrats and they don’t expect us to roll over and play dead. We will have a peaceful transition of power, followed by a vigorous challenge from the party out of power, because that’s how democracy works. Here’s a path forward.

First, fight every fight in Congress.
We won’t always win, but we can slow or sometimes limit Trump’s destruction. With every fight, we can build political power to put more checks on his administration and build the foundation for future wins. Remember that during the first Trump term, mass mobilization—including some of the largest peaceful protests in world history—was the battery that charged the resistance. There is power in solidarity, and we can’t win if we don’t get in the fight…

Second, fight Trump in the courts.
Yes, extremist courts, including a Supreme Court stocked with MAGA loyalists, are poised to rubber-stamp Trump’s lawlessness. But litigation can slow Trump down, give us time to prepare and help the vulnerable, and deliver some victories.

show full post on front page

Third, focus on what each of us can do.
I understand my assignment in the Senate, but we all have a part to play. During the first Trump administration, Democrats vigorously contested every special election and laid the groundwork to take back the House in the 2018 midterms, creating a powerful check on Trump and breaking the Republican trifecta. Whether it’s stepping up to run for office, supporting a neighbor’s campaign, or getting involved in an organization taking action, we all have to continue to make investments in our democracy—including in states that are passed over as “too red.” The political position we’re in is not permanent, and we have the power to make change if we fight for it.

Finally, Democrats currently in office must work with urgency.
While still in charge of the Senate and the White House, we must do all we can to safeguard our democracy. To resist Trump’s threats to abuse state power against what he calls “the enemy within,” Pentagon leaders should issue a directive now reiterating that the military’s oath is to the Constitution. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer must use every minute of the end-of-year legislative session to confirm federal judges and key regulators—none of whom can be removed by the next President.

To those feeling despair: I understand. But remember, every step toward progress in American history came after the darkness of defeat. Abolitionists, suffragettes, Dreamers, and marchers for civil rights and marriage equality all faced impossible odds, but they persisted. Now it is our turn to pull up our socks and get back in the fight.

My message about the election results: pic.twitter.com/Z1X9F6jWik

— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) November 6, 2024

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Once More Unto the Boulder-Pushing BrigadesPost + Comments (357)

War for Ukraine Day 990: Mixed Signals

by Adam L Silverman|  November 9, 202410:10 pm| 45 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: Rosie is doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

As I start tonight’s update – 8:55 PM EST/3:55 AM local time in Ukraine – over 2/3rds of Ukraine is under air raid alert. Other than an indicator of a potential sea launched threat, there’s no indicators that Russian fixed wing aviation is up.

Noga Tarnopolsky has reported that Brian Lanza, who is a senior natsec advisor to the President-elect gave an interview to BBC Weekend. His remarks are not encouraging:

💥Senior Trump advisor Bryan Lanza throws Ukraine under the bus (if Zelensky wants Creemiyah back, forget it, he says, its gone) says there is no two state solution and Netanyahu– “he can do whatever he wants to get the hostages back.” ⁦@AlbanaKasapi bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0k3gh…

From the BBC:

A former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia.

Bryan Lanza, who worked on Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, told the BBC the incoming administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a “realistic vision for peace”.

“And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he’s not serious,” he said. “Crimea is gone.”

A spokesperson for Trump distanced the incoming president from the remarks, saying Mr Lanza “does not speak for him”.

The president-elect has consistently said his priority is to end the war and stem what he characterises as a drain on US resources, in the form of military aid to Ukraine.

But he has yet to divulge how he intends to do so – and will likely be hearing competing visions for Ukraine’s future from his various advisers.

Mr Lanza, a Trump political adviser during his 2016 and 2024 campaigns, did not mention areas of eastern Ukraine, but he said regaining Crimea from Russia was unrealistic and “not the goal of the United States”.

“When Zelensky says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we’ve got news for President Zelensky: Crimea is gone,” he told the BBC World Service’s Weekend programme.

“And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you’re on your own.”

The US has never deployed American soldiers to fight in Ukraine, nor has Kyiv requested American troops fight on its behalf. Ukraine has only requested American military aid to arm its own soldiers.

Mr Lanza said he had tremendous respect for the Ukrainian people, whose “hearts are made of lions”. But he said the US priority was “peace and to stop the killing”.

“What we’re going to say to Ukraine is, you know what you see? What do you see as a realistic vision for peace. It’s not a vision for winning, but it’s a vision for peace. And let’s start having the honest conversation,” he said.

In response, Zelensky’s adviser Dmytro Lytvyn characterised Mr Lanza’s remarks as placing the pressure for peace on Ukraine when it was “Putin who wants more war”.

“Putin loses most of his people in assaults at the front. What does this indicate? It is obvious that he wants to fight on,” he said.

“Ukraine has been offering peace since 2022 – there are quite realistic proposals. And it is Russia that must be made to hear that peace is needed and that peace must be reliable, so that there is simply no repetition of Russian strikes.”

A spokesperson for Trump’s transition team – which prepares the incoming administration for office – said Mr Lanza was “a contractor for the campaign”, but “does not work for President Trump and does not speak for him”.

Trump is expected to handle peace talks with a close circle of aides once in office.

An unnamed National Security Council aide who previously served under Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday: “Anyone – no matter how senior in Trump’s circle – who claims to have a different view or more detailed window into his plans on Ukraine simply doesn’t know what he or she is talking about.”

They said that the former president “makes his own calls on national security issues” and had done so “many times in the moment”.

Here’s Maria Avdeeva’s take:

If Mr. Lanza wants an honest conversation, here it is. This strategy doesn’t just empower Putin; it encourages other rogue states to use nuclear blackmail and invade neighboring countries, tearing down the world order. And, honestly, Putin has already said as much himself.

We’ve got a lot of mixed signals here. We’ve got the Ukrainian take away from yesterday’s call between President Zelenskyy and the President-elect (and the Starlink Snowflake). We’ve got Brian Lanza’s statements to the BBC. We’ve got several different spokespeople for the President-elect contradicting Lanza.

This is going to be the same ongoing problem it was during the President-elect’s first term. As we’ve seen over the past year with the various Middle East states and non-state actors that are in conflict, as well as the past three years in regard to Ukraine and Russia, things get immeasurably harder if there is not clear, deliberate communication and messaging. It is going to be especially bad during the transition as a number of people are jockeying for not just political appointments, but for specific positions with specific rank.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Surpassed the Milestone of the First 100 Units of Missile Armament This Year – Address by the President

9 November 2024 – 19:07

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I have already held several meetings on defense issues.

The first one was about our specialized production, our strategic industries, our weaponry. There was a report by Oleksandr Kamyshin. This year, we managed to achieve significant results in several areas. This includes our Ukrainian artillery – our shells, our cannons. It also includes drones – of different types, for different tasks – types that not only help defend the frontline positions and destroy the occupier, but also strike deeper and deeper into Russia. We will scale this up. We surpassed the milestone of the first 100 units of missile armament this year. I will not go into details here, but I would like to thank everyone who is involved in this production of ours, who organizes the relevant processes. And we are going to expand this area. Currently, more than 800 companies are working on the production of weapons for our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine. Now, for the first time in more than 30 years of independence, we have not just individual investment steps of our partners in Ukraine, but systemic investment models. In particular, this is the model of Denmark, the Danish model, which invests and attracts investments in production. We have also agreed with France on a slightly different model – it also includes technology and the construction of relevant production facilities. We also have preliminary agreements with our other partners to localize arms production specifically in Ukraine. And this is something that will consistently make us stronger.

The second for today is a report from the military and the Ministry of Defense. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych, Minister of Defense Umerov. Most attention is now focused on the Kurakhove direction.

And third. Sadly, this week has brought Ukraine brutal Russian strikes on Kharkiv, the Donetsk region, the Sumy region, and Odesa. Zaporizhzhia. In fact, drone strikes occur on a daily basis. Missile strikes, too. And every meeting, every negotiation with partners who have appropriate air defense systems is always a conversation about additional protection of Ukraine from Russian terror. Here in Europe, on the continent, there are enough air defense systems that can ensure a truly effective defense for Ukraine. And this is beyond understanding when air defense systems are just standing there. Standing idle when each system can save hundreds or even thousands of lives. We will continue to convince our partners.

And now I want to commend the Ukrainian rescuers. The entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, who is working in areas where, quite objectively, there is a lack of enhanced air defense capabilities. Zaporizhzhia: Ihor Kariagin, Yurii Shandor, Oleksandr Liashenko, Andrii Pavlenko and Oleksii Sukhorukov deserve our special gratitude. Odesa: Ivan Haitian, Fedir Kaisyn, Vitalii Labutin, Oleksandr Mykytiuk, and Serhii Rudyi. Kyiv: Oleksandr Chuliuk, Vladyslav Zazymko, Oleksandr Volynets, Vasyl Chornenkyi, Vadym Kozhukhivskyi and Vitalii Minkov. I thank you guys, and I want to thank all your colleagues as well! I thank everyone who works for the benefit of Ukraine and everyone who fights for our state and for our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Estonia:

The Kyiv Independent reports that Estonia is providing more air defense aid to Ukraine:

The Estonian arms company Frankenburg Technologies will transfer air defense missiles to Ukraine for testing, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced on Nov. 8.

Kyiv has been calling on its partners to provide additional air defense assets as Russia intensifies its strikes against cities and energy infrastructure.

The first samples for testing will be delivered in the coming months. The missiles to be trialed by Ukraine are designed to counter drones, and can shoot down targets at an altitude of up to 2 kilometers (1 mile), the ministry said.

“Our goal is to help Ukraine win this war. To do this, we offer a sample of a new low-cost missile to shoot down air targets, primarily unmanned aerial vehicles,” said Kusti Salm, CEO of Frankenburg Technologies and former Permanent Secretary of the Estonian Defense Ministry.

Salm met with Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Brigadier General Anatolii Klochko, and discussed the upcoming tests.

The next step is to agree on a financing format for missile production, according to the statement. If the trials are successful and the Defense Ministry and Frankenburg Technologies agree on further use of the weapons, Ukraine may also arrange the production of these missiles.

Frankenburg Technologies is a defense-industrial company founded in 2024 and headquartered in Tallinn. It currently operates in Ukraine, Latvia, and Estonia.

Estonia and Ukraine signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on June 26. The deal stipulates that Estonia will supply Ukraine with defense aid worth more than 100 million euros ($107 million) this year and will allocate at least 0.25% of its gross domestic product (GDP) annually for military support in 2024–2027.

Kyiv and Tallinn will also launch a regular “strategic dialogue” and deepen their military-industrial cooperation.

The US:

According to The Kyiv Independent, the US is going to push a huge package out to Ukraine:

The Biden administration will rush the delivery of over 500 interceptor missiles for the Patriot and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile (NASAMS) systems to Kyiv, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Nov. 9, citing a senior administration official.

The deliveries come as the Biden administration is planning to rush the delivery of the remaining approximately $7 billion in military aid to Ukraine ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump in January 2025.

The weapons, which are expected to arrive in the coming weeks, should meet the demand for Ukraine air defense needs for the remainder of 2024, the official said.

No details were provided as to how many of each interceptor missile would be provided.

Two administration officials told Politicoon Nov. 7 that the White House plans to expedite the weapons delivery amid concerns that a future Trump administration would halt weapons shipments before they reach Kyiv.

Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war within “24 hours” and get the U.S. “out” of Ukraine — a plan that may involve ceding Ukrainian territory and creating autonomous regions in the east, according to reporting in October.

In June, two top advisors to Trump proposed a plan that would cease military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to hold peace negotiations with Russia, Reuters reported, citing the advisors, retired General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleit.

Despite President Biden’s ability to deliver existing weapons stocks through presidential drawdown authority, White House officials are concerned that the delivery of the large amount of weaponry may take months to reach Ukraine — well past Trump’s inauguration into office.

In addition to the interceptors, a Pentagon official said on Nov. 8 that the White House was preparing to send “a small number of contractors” to maintain F-16 fighter jets as well as other air defense systems. The White House previously rejected the plan as late as August but has changed course amid an increase in inoperable and unserviceable weaponry.

“Ensuring these weapon systems remain mission capable is critical for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression,” a statement by the Pentagon read.

Most recently on Oct. 16, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the latest $425 million in new security assistance for Ukraine during a phone call with Zelensky.

Of course, the Biden administration claimed it was rushing a huge shipment as soon as the supplemental was signed and most of that stuff still hasn’t gotten to Ukraine.

The EU:

The Kyiv Independent has the details on newly issued assurances from the EU’s Josep Borrell to Ukraine:

During a visit to Kyiv on Nov. 9, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, reassured Kyiv of the EU’s “unwavering” support amid uncertainty about the level of U.S. support under President-elect Donald Trump’s leadership.

“We need faster deliveries and fewer self-imposed red lines,” Borrell said referring to his support of allowing Ukraine to strike deep inside Russian with Western-provided long range weaponry.

Borrell arrived in Kyiv earlier in the day for his fifth trip to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ahead of talks with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Borrell vowed that the EU’s support for Ukraine has always been his “personal priority” and should remain on top of the bloc’s agenda.

“This support remains unwavering. This support is absolutely needed for you to continue defending yourself against Russia’s aggression,” Borrell said during a news conference with Sybiha after the meeting.

Borrell’s latest visit to Kyiv as the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy comes a few days after Republican candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump secured victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Although Trump has remained vague about his foreign policy plans, his sweeping victory added further uncertainty for Ukraine regarding the future of Western military aid in its defense against the ongoing Russian invasion.

The Telegraph reported on Nov. 7, citing three Trump staffers, that Trump may call on British and European troops to enforce a buffer zone that he would try to impose over the current front line in Ukraine. Under the plan, the current front line in Ukraine would be frozen.

The U.S. would supply weapons to Ukraine to prevent Moscow from re-launching the war, according to the Telegraph. In exchange, Ukraine would agree not to pursue its ambition to join NATO for 20 years, the sources said.

During the news conference in Kyiv alongside Borrell, Sybiha said President Volodymyr Zelensky will begin preparations for a meeting with Trump.

Borrell added that EU defense ministers will meet next week to discuss “boosting support at this critical hour,” including both military and diplomatic support for Kyiv.

A staunch supporter of Ukraine, Borrell’s visit to Kyiv follows a visit to South Korea earlier in November, where he encouraged Seoul to step up its support for Ukraine amid rising concerns over North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian troops in the war against Ukraine.

All of these promises, assurances, and statements are coming against the reality that despite sanctions, Russia will still produce 30% more artillery than the entire EU combined next year. From The Kyiv Independent:

Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all EU member states combined next year, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said at a press conference in Kyiv on Nov. 9.

“According to Ukrainian intelligence, using the information we have, if there is no proper response or prevention, Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all countries of the European Union combined,” he said in comments reported by Ukrinform.

Sybiha called for international action to constrain Russia’s industrial capacity.

“First of all, here I am referring to the shadow fleet, which helps Russia circumvent sanctions and continue to trade energy resources, oil. It is very important that the further strengthening of the EU’s sanctions policy of our allies focus on this aspect,” he said.

An ammunition shortage has long been a cause for concern in Ukraine but has escalated this year. The EU failed to deliver on its promise to produce 1 million artillery shells between March 2023 and 2024 while disputes in Washington led to a severe delay in a $61 billion aid package.

Several countries have backed a Czech-led initiative to procure 800,000 shells for Ukraine proposed in February this year. In March, the EU allocated 500 million euros ($544 million) to bolster the EU’s ammunition production capacity to 2 million shells per year by the end of 2025.

Ukraine has long tried to ramp up its own domestic ammunition production to become more independent from Western partners.

In the summer of 2023, Ukroboronprom said that it had already mastered the production of 82 mm mortar mines, 122 mm, and 152 mm artillery rounds, as well as 125 mm tank shells.

Earlier media reports cited Ukrainian officials hoping to begin producing “desperately needed” NATO-standard 155 mm artillery rounds in the ‘second half’ of 2024 at the earliest.

Despite domestic efforts, the Ukrainian army still mainly depends on supplying 155 mm shells from partners, as European countries join forces to buy the rounds outside Europe.

The U.S. also opened a new factory last May to produce 155 mm munitions for Ukraine and significantly increased production in some existing factories.

Illia Ponomarenko reports that the Russians have executed another Ukrianian POW:

The Russian military executed yet another injured and disarmed Ukrainian soldier. Russians have knowingly made atrocities and war crimes an everyday practice in Ukraine while the West is still obsessed with escalation management and trying to pretend it’s not happening in Europe in 2024.

Don’t click on the link!

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight Team have a new assessment that focuses on whether lifting the restrictions on ATACMS use would actually be helpful for Ukraine:

One point of tension between Zelensky and the Biden admins was the issue of allowing ATACMS strikes inside Russia. Frontelligence Insight conducted geospatial analysis and spoke with former U.S. officials and experts from leading US think tanks. Summary of our report🧵:
2/ When a Pentagon spokesperson suggested that Russia had moved assets capable of KAB strikes from airfields within ATACMS range, the statement was correct. Our research confirms that Russia relocated Su-34/35 jets from bases like Voronezh Air Base.
3/ At the same time, our analysis of satellite imagery from September 28 reveals that at least 14 combat and transport helicopters, along with eight Su-25 close-air-support jets, were stationed at the Kursk airport when the images were captured.
4/ Lipetsk Air Base is over 290 kilometers from the edges of Kharkiv Oblast. It hosts various Su jets, including Su-24, Su-30, Su-27, Su-34, and Su-35, all capable of deploying KAB bombs. However, it lies beyond ATACMS range unless Ukraine positions launchers at the border.
5/ Russia continues to use Forward Arming and Refueling Points within the ATACMS range, including near Kursk Air Base in Kursk Oblast. At the same time, FARPs typically host only a few helicopters, making the potential impact of a strike limited.
6/ Military warehouses, railroad stations, and ammo depots in Rostov, Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts fall within ATACMS range. Destruction of supply trains disrupts troop effectiveness, as seen in the attack on Toropets, which damaged or destroyed 20 railcars.
7/ In a plausible scenario, a single artillery ammo delivery train could have 10 covered wagons and 10 flatbeds, each carrying two containers. A single strike could destroy over 13,400 152mm shells, along with railcars and the locomotive, temporarily blocking the route
8/ Our team has identified many more cases, including air defense sites and training camps, which you can find in our report linked at the end of this thread. Given all these factors and their potential impact, one might ask: why there is no green light on ATACMS strikes?
9/ Contrary to popular belief, the main concern within the U.S. security community is not nuclear escalation, but the broader implications for U.S. interests globally – particularly the risk of strengthening adversaries and their proxies in key regions.
10/ A prime example is the potential for Russia, in response to U.S. missile deliveries, to share advanced missile (P-800) and rocket technologies with Iran or its proxies, like the Houthis in Yemen. This could introduce a new threat to the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East
11/ This scenario isn’t hypothetical – Russia has indeed supplied targeting data to the Houthis, facilitating attacks on global shipping and raising stakes for the West with potentially multi-billion dollar implications.
12/ Russia keeps leverage through its partnership with North Korea, threatening the transfer of missile, EW, and air defense technologies. Russia’s ability to enhance North Korea’s ICBM capabilities, directly threatening the U.S. mainland cannot be ignored by Washington
13/ Another factor, shared by one of our sources, is the ATACMS interception rate – a number that you can find in our full report. This raises concerns among U.S. officials, who worry that the risks will outweigh any benefits, given the interception and low salvo rates
14/ This aligns with issues from Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive, where Storm Shadow strikes often lacked coordinated operational intent, displaying Ukraine’s poor ability to integrate missile strikes into the broader operational picture.
15/ These are legitimate concerns that cannot be easily dismissed. The U.S. security community’s primary focus is safeguarding US security. The key question is whether the potential benefits of Ukraine using ATACMS to strike Russian airfields outweigh the risks.
16/ Considering that the U.S. has already transferred dozens of missiles in the past, it becomes clear that even if additional missiles are supplied with permission to strike, a strategic shift should not be anticipated, making the risk-benefit ratio less compelling.
17/ Yet, wars of attrition are rarely decided by a single strike. Instead, they are shaped by the cumulative actions that gradually shift the balance. The destruction of training centers, helicopters, CAS jets, bridges, warehouses, and S-300 batteries is undeniably beneficial.
18/ The public focus on KAB and airfields has been unproductive. The reason why Ukraine is losing the war is not because of KABs. The benefits of ATACMS should be evaluated within a strategic framework that integrates these systems into a broader, realistic operational plan
19/ This means that the Ukrainian government also has to do some homework because so far it has failed to convey the benefits of such a campaign to the US side, which is going to absorb the risks associated with the provision of ATACMS.
20/ Our team concluded that we must acknowledge the associated risks, especially if the discussion is to be taken seriously. The focus should shift to a broader argument addressing the underlying challenges Ukraine faces, rather than fixating on a single KAB – ATACMS issue.
21/ Please leave a comment, share, and like the first message in our thread to aid with visibility. We encourage you to access our full report by becoming a paid subscriber on Stack, where we regularly publish in-depth reports and analyses like this one
frontelligence.substack.com/p/the-us-sta…
The U.S. Stance on ATACMS for Ukraine: Justified or Misguided?Analysis: Understanding the Risks, Benefits, and Alternativesfrontelligence.substack.com

The Kyiv Independent reports on Colonel-General Syrskyi’s assessment of the theater strategic situation:

The situation on the front lines is “challenging” and “trending towards escalation,” Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Nov. 9.

“The situation remains challenging and is trending towards escalation. The enemy, leveraging its numerical advantage, continues offensive operations, concentrating its efforts primarily in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions,” Syrskyi said in a post on Facebook.

“We have numerous reports about the preparation of North Korean soldiers to participate in combat operations alongside Russian forces,” he added without providing further details.

Syrskyi was reporting what he had told General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s top commander in Europe, in a phone call earlier in the day.

According to a Bloomberg analysis published on Nov. 1, Ukraine has lost 1,146 square kilometers of its own territory since the launch of the Kursk Oblast incursion in early August, with the week up until Nov. 1 reported as the worst in terms of lost territory in all of 2024.

On Nov. 2, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukraine was facing “one of the most powerful” Russian offensives since the start of the all out war.

Over autumn, large chunks of Ukrainian territory, sometimes including entire cities, have been lost on a near-daily basis in southern Donetsk Oblast, while Russian forces have also made operationally significant gains near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, as well as on their own soil in Kursk Oblast.

Maria Avdeeva reports that the Ukrainians have recovered a downed, but intact, Russian Shahed drone with a thermobaric warhead.

Shahed drone equipped with thermobaric warhead for extra destructive power. Downed and found almost completely intact

Video at the link.

Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

From Iryna Voichuk:

Saturday morning in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast: two civilians burned alive in a russian air strike. This is reality. Speak up now – before such cruelty becomes routine, before silence makes it acceptable

Kate from Kharkiv has more details:

A Russian missile strike on Kupiansk around 11 AM today resulted in the deaths of a man and a woman. A 61-year-old man was also injured. According to the regional prosecutor’s office, the victims were struck by downed power lines, sparking a fire. Their bodies were severely burned, and authorities are working to identify them. The prosecutor’s office believes a KAB-1500 guided bomb was used in the attack. The strike damaged private homes, apartment buildings, and outbuildings, and destroyed 15 garages.

Kharkiv:

In the fifth episode of “Dare to Ukraine,” we explore Kharkiv, a city that embodies resilience in the face of adversity. Despite enduring severe damage and remaining under the constant horror of Russia’s war, Kharkiv’s spirit remains unbroken.

[image or embed]

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 9, 2024 at 8:17 AM

Saratov Oblast, Russia:

Ukrainian drones hit oil refinery in Russia’s Saratov, HUR source confirms; Ukraine to receive $6 billion in US military aid before Trump’s term begins, Pentagon confirms; and more.

[image or embed]

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 8, 2024 at 4:17 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian drones operated by military intelligence (HUR) attacked an oil refinery in the Russian city of Saratov on Nov. 8, a military intelligence source confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.

Earlier in the day, Saratov Oblast Governor Ruslan Busargin said that a Ukrainian drone targeted the city.

According to Busargin, air defenses downed the drone over the city and debris fell in the industrial area in the Zavodsky district. He did not report any casualties or damage.

The city hosts the Saratov Oil Refinery, formerly known as the Cracking Plant, which is part of Rosneft, the state-run oil company. The refinery is located in the city’s Zavodsky District.

The HUR source said drones hit one of the plant’s oil refineries and fuel oil tanks, and cited local media reports of multiple explosions.

Overnight, a total of 17 Ukrainian drones were “destroyed and intercepted,” according to a report by the Russian Defense Ministry. Six drones were reportedly shot down over Saratov Oblast.

Saratov is a city in southwestern Russia, located nearly 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

This is not the first time drones have attacked Saratov Oblast — drones reportedly struck Saratov Oblast overnight on Aug. 26. At least four civilians were reportedly injured in the attack.

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Special Kherson Cat brings us a true tale from the land of “if nothing is true, everything is possible.”

A prankster sent a letter to schools in the Voronezh region of Russia under the guise of a demand from the ruling ‘United Russia’ party to make and wear tinfoil hats to protect against NATO satellite radiation. 7 schools complied with the demand, 2 of them involved children in creating the tinfoil hats.

Apparently, they’ve opened a chapter of Mom’s for Liberty.

Video at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 990: Mixed SignalsPost + Comments (45)

‘Disqualified’

by @heymistermix.com|  November 9, 20244:02 pm| 314 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Warning: More Criticism of Democrats Below, Read With Extreme Caution

I was on a train and in the city when responding to comments in the last post, so I was limited by the constraints of typing on my phone.  But I want to make it clear that I’m going to criticize Democrats in future posts, that such criticism is welcome in the comments, and that nobody should be shy about commenting with constructive criticism or even just plain old bitching.  With that said…

Here’s Greg Sargent, hardly a guy outside the tent pissing in:

Some Democrats believe that the leading pro-Harris Super PAC, Future Forward, failed to spend enough of its enormous budget on advertising early on that might have reminded voters of the horrors of the Trump presidency. That perhaps allowed him to slowly rehabilitate himself and edge up his favorable numbers while Democrats weren’t looking.

“There was a calculation among Democrats after 2020 that Trump was disqualified and wouldn’t be back,” Democratic data analyst Tom Bonier told me. “That evolved into a calculation that he would be disqualified by his legal troubles and could end up in jail. Democrats undeniably failed to disqualify him. The result was that by the time the Harris campaign started, it was too late.” […]

But surely a key part of this [Trump not getting blamed by voters] is that Trump was permitted to rehabilitate himself and his presidency relatively unchallenged, after running the economy into the ground and presiding over countless needless Covid deaths, then inciting a violent coup and facing an array of serious criminal charges. Trump and his media allies launched years of propaganda designed to erase 2020 from voters’ memories entirely while hammering Biden’s recovery as a catastrophe despite it actually proving a largely successful one, which Trump will now undoubtedly take credit for as president.

All throughout, this effort from Trumpworld met little resistance from Democrats and woefully inadequate scrutiny by the news media. That the unpopular Biden remained in the race so long—keeping voters focused on him as the target of blame for inflation and the awful post-Covid hangover—may have further enabled Trump to shake off association with those national wounds, slowly rewrite the story of his presidency and burnish retrospective approval of it.

There was a fundamental error made by the Biden administration and by its political consultants:  they thought Trump was done and that people wanted to turn the page.  So Biden appointed a institutionalist Attorney General and generally ignored Trump’s antics.  I’ll grant that any AG would have had an uphill battle — but Garland’s slavish devotion to the norms of the institution also led to the Hunter Biden special prosecutor and a two-year delay in appointing Jack Smith.

We all liked Joe Biden, and it’s difficult to acknowledge that he failed in what is in hindsight the most important task in his Presidency, going after Trump.  We all saw how diminished he was in the debate, and that didn’t happen overnight.  Rather than advising him to step down (preferably by not running again in 2024), his advisors doubled down on a losing strategy of not acknowledging the importance of the economy, and not spending money on anti-Trump ads.

Compared to any of us, these advisors and consultants have a massive audience in the DC media.   Now we’re hearing a bunch of nonsense from them arguing that the real problem is that Democrats were too “woke” and how Democrats need to throw trans people under the bus.  And, oh yeah, “headwinds”.  I’ll grant that there were headwinds, that Democrats were caricatured as overly woke by right-wing media, and that the lies told about trans people hurt us.   But when has all of this trimming that these consultants advise ever worked?  Even if we Democrats decided, for example, that we have to throw trans people under the bus, it wouldn’t fucking matter because the right-wing media tells whatever anti-trans lies they need to put Democrats in a box.  These consultants have had years to figure out how to get us out of that box, and they have completely, utterly failed, despite the billions of dollars spent on them and the advertising they recommend.

One of the things on my long, long list of topics to write about after the election is the plague of Democratic PACs that just hoover up hard-earned, earnestly-given donor money without showing results.  We need to name, shame and avoid most of these useless grifters.

‘Disqualified’Post + Comments (314)

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