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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Fight them, without becoming them!

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Their shamelessness is their super power.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

Donald Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

When we show up, we win.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Open Thread: Pastor Johnson Is Panicking

by Anne Laurie|  November 5, 20251:22 pm| 73 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, Trump Crime Cartel

We love to see it, folks!….

lmao they're, uh, panicking.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 10:43 AM

Mikey these numbers with latinos hold in Texas (which is a big if) and you're gonna lose seats on net.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 10:46 AM

lmaaaooo

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 11:12 AM

Johnson: I don't think the loss last night was any reflection about Republicans at all.

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— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 10:42 AM

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Folks – let them think this. I’ve spent 25 years doing campaigns – when you think like this after a loss like last night, you are doomed to lose again.

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— Anne Caprara (@annecaprara.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 10:48 AM

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Mike Johnson hasn’t heard or seen a thing.

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— Democrats In Array Thanks Joe Biden (@demsinarray.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 9:12 PM

CNN Speaker Johnson I don’t know montage

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— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 10:31 PM

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"The Republican Party has created an entirely avoidable mess for itself. By taking a resolute stand in favor of making healthcare unobtainable for many Americans, and now threatening to starve children to achieve that perverse goal, they have made performative cruelty their political calling card."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) November 4, 2025 at 4:27 PM

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one of the most insane thing about partisan politics is that Republicans are allowed to say "these four million American citizens shouldn't get the representation they are entitled because it would be politically inconvenient for us" and nobody bats an eye

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— Cameron (@cameroncorduroy.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 11:31 AM

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You can literally watch him going "oh no" in real time.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 10:44 AM

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it's time for journos to start asking Johnson meta questions
"Speaker, on 5 occasions last week you said 'I haven't seen it' when asked about news events w/big implications for public policy. Do you ever read the news, and do you agree it's problematic for the Speaker to be so woefully uninformed?"

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) November 3, 2025 at 10:36 AM

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Today, Mike Johnson will keep the House adjourned for the 91st day out of the last 103.
12 days of work in 103 days.
With full pay and benefits.
The senate has been working, so this is not about the shutdown.
It is about avoiding a vote to release the Epstein files.

— Ron Filipkowski (@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 5:50 AM

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— AgonyFlips (@agonyflips.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 10:29 AM

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The other candidates for Speaker were Jim Jordan, of Ohio State infamy, and even, briefly, Matt Gaetz, who has any number of skeletons in his closet. The MAGA Republicans have a type.
Why did they decide on Mike Johnson? Why is he such an obedient little puppet? Why does he lie to serve his Master?

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— Greg Olear (@gregolear.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 2:40 PM

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Obligatory!

Optics only matter if you're a Democrat.

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— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 11:06 AM

Open Thread: Pastor Johnson Is PanickingPost + Comments (73)

Nothing Changes, Until It Does!

by WaterGirl|  November 5, 20259:27 am| 239 Comments

This post is in: Elections, Elections 2025, Open Threads

Last night we got some great reminders – Nothing Changes.  Until it does!

Nothing Changes, Until It Does!
Mississippi House Democratic Minority Leader Rep. Robert Johnson of Natchez (left) is seen with Mississippi Democratic Senate Minority Leader Sen. Derrick Simmons of Greenville (center) on Jan. 18, 2024, at the Mississippi Capitol in Jackson, Miss. AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis Credit: Rogelio V. Solis

After 13 years, Mississippi Democrats have broken the Republican Party’s supermajority in the Mississippi Senate. Voters elected Democrats to two seats previously held by Republicans, reducing the number of Republican senators in the upper chamber from 36 to 34—one fewer than necessary to constitute a supermajority.

“Mississippi just broke the supermajority—and the people have taken back their power,” the Mississippi Democratic Party wrote in social media posts Tuesday night. “From the Delta to the Pine Belt, voters stood up for fair leadership and community progress: Better schools. Fairer representation. Expanded healthcare. Good-paying jobs.”
When a party has supermajority status in the Mississippi Senate, it can more easily override a governor’s veto, propose constitutional amendments and execute certain procedural actions.

Republicans had held a supermajority in the Senate since sweeping the state government in 2011.

In the House, Democrat Justin Crosby also flipped House District 22, defeating incumbent Republican House Rep. Jon Lancaster. That district includes parts of Chickasaw, Clay and Monroe counties.

Democrat Theresa Gillespie Isom won Mississippi Senate District 2 in a special election on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. The seat was held by retiring Mississippi Sen. David Parker, a Republican. Photo courtesy Theresa Gillespie Isom for State Senate District 2 / Facebook
The victories followed Tuesday’s special legislative elections. Six Senate seats were up for a special election on Tuesday, along with one House seat, because a federal court ordered the State to create more Black-majority legislative districts earlier this year. Two other Senate districts were up for special elections to fill vacated seats, along with a House seat.

Democrats will likely hold 18 Senate seats when the Legislature returns to session in January 2026.


What a great night!

It feels like a gift, and it is, but a whole lotta people worked their assess off in order to make this happen.

Including us!

Nothing Changes, Until It Does! 1

Nothing Changes, Until It Does!Post + Comments (239)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  November 5, 20256:06 am| 249 Comments

This post is in: Music, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Johnny Nash hits #1 today in 1972 with “I Can See Clearly Now” — sometimes considered the first reggae song to do so. (A young Bob Marley was an assistant producer and session player on the album.)
It held the top spot for four weeks.

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 7:39 PM

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Tonight, was another reminder: there is no single mold for a Democratic winner.
Progressives won. Moderates won. Rural, suburban, urban —they all won. Black, White, Latino, AAPI — they all won. We won in the East, South, Midwest and West. Victories in races from City Council to Governor.

— Jaime Harrison (@jaimeharrison.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:56 PM

We are strongest because we reflect the diversity of the nation.
Stop trying to engineer the “perfect” type. Start recruiting people who can actually connect with the people in front of them.
Tip O’Neill was right then and he’s right now – All politics is (& remains) LOCAL. #Election2025

— Jaime Harrison (@jaimeharrison.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:56 PM

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The Senate Republicans are going to be forced to work with Senate Democrats to end the shut down after the results of tonight‘s elections. The Democrats cannot fold on ACA subsidies. This is amazing. Congratulations!

— Peter Morley ?? (@petermorley.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 11:08 PM

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interesting how for all the threats and noises, Trump is responding to Republicans losing by angrily and impotently tweeting about how Republicans lost! Almost like elections… aren't…. over???

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— Nute (@nutedawn.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:11 PM

From Trumps posts tonight, I think he suddenly understands everyone hates him.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 1:28 AM

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I think a thing we'll learn tonight is that people fucking hate what is going on and they will straight ticket vote against anyone involved in starving people while pillaging the country and kidnapping their neighbors. I don't think it matters at all who that person is.

— Tim Onion (@bencollins.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 7:44 PM

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despite everything i believe there is a critical mass of americans that want fair play, love their neighbors, believe in the immigrant dream of america, and don’t give a shit who you marry.
they just haven’t been mobilized. maybe they will be. i dunno. but tonight did not suck.

— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 11:59 PM

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Which is an inherently unstable coalition, but a monster to beat if it works.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) November 5, 2025 at 1:16 AM

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I'm so over these "journalists"… what even is this question?

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— Strictly 4 My Navigators (@lizzslockeroom.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:29 PM

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bsky.app/profile/atru…
looking pretty good out there tonight!

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— Scott DiGiorgio (@tonalmountain.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:19 PM

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I regret to inform you: winning the New York City mayoral election as a Democrat officially makes you part of the so-called Democratic establishment.

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 11:33 PM

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Spanberger’s campaign in its form and function was more similar to Mamdani’s than anyone will admit. But it was for Virginia.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dicknixon.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 7:31 PM

Without the charisma.

Sure. But I think I know something about the limits of charisma.

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— Richard M. Nixon (@dicknixon.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 7:32 PM

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Remember who spent time today dooming about Congressional Dems folding & bitching about Schumer & Jeffries.

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 6:02 PM

Wednesday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (249)

Election Night in VA and NJ, PA, NYC and Prop 50 (and more!) Part 2

by WaterGirl|  November 4, 20259:45 pm| 244 Comments

This post is in: Elections, Elections 2025, Open Threads

Updated election scorecard:

 

Election Night in VA and NJ, PA, NYC and Prop 50 (and more!) Part 2Post + Comments (244)

War for Ukraine Day 1,349: The Cost and the Reason

by Adam L Silverman|  November 4, 20259:12 pm| 8 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by the Ukrainain artist NEIVANMADE. The upper 1/2 is grey and there are black Shahed drones on it aimed towards the bottom of the painting. The bottom half of the painting has a blood red background and in the center of the bottom is a house, to it's left is a swing set, and to its right is a car. They are charcoal grey on the blood red background background. The drones are targeting the house, swing set, and car. Above the house and below the drones are the words "Russia Kills To Erase Free People".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The cost:

Russia murdered volunteer Olena Polynina, who rescued stray animals, in Sloviansk.

According to her fellow volunteers, that day Olena had packed food and set out to feed the strays she cared for. At that moment, Russian forces struck the city with a multiple rocket launcher.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:00 PM

Two other people were killed alongside her.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:00 PM

The reason:

This is so beautiful: a Ukrainian soldier sent his wife sunflowers from the fields of Donbas — after coming back from the zero line.
Photos: _kononchuk_annie_ threads.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 1:12 PM

President Zelenskyy did a battlefield circulation today. He met with the Soldiers of the Azov Corps, as well as the 4th Brigade of the National Guard/the Rubizh Brigade, the 25th Separate Sicheslav Brigade, the 7th Rapid Response Forces of the Airborne Assault Forces, and the 414th Brigade/Magyar’s Birds and presented awards.

🫡🇺🇦 President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the command post of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine “Azov,” which is currently operating in the Dobropillia direction.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 9:16 AM

He also visited the food train:

The 🇺🇦 Food Train 🚂 had a visitor today! Grateful to the Ukrainian Railways team for their non-stop courageous work. The train is still cooking thousands of meals every day, often under fire in the Kharkiv region. The Iron People are unbreakable.

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 4:05 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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I Directed an Increase in Funding for the Corps on Key Directions and Discussed This With the Command – Address by the President

4 November 2025 – 19:40

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I was in the Donetsk and Dnipro regions, and – most importantly – in the Pokrovsk sector, with those very corps that are doing the crucial work: destroying the occupier, defending Pokrovsk, defending Myrnohrad, defending Dobropillia.

The 1st Corps of the National Guard “Azov” – this is specifically the Dobropillia direction. We also visited, in particular, the 4th Rapid Response Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine “Rubizh,” the 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Airborne Assault Forces, the 25th Separate Airborne Sicheslav Brigade, and the 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade of the AFU “Magyar’s Birds.” All the commanders of the Unmanned Systems Forces are present. And all of them, together with our other forces, are ensuring the defense of the Pokrovsk areas.

I want to thank every warrior, every unit engaged here and on other parts of the front. Today, I presented awards to the finest warriors – those who distinguished themselves in combat. And as is now traditional, I spoke with brigade commanders about their urgent needs, mostly about drones. This is truly the key component of combat operations right now. There were many-many details, but the main thing is – we need more drones, all types of drones, and independence in drone production, and our own independence, and truly reliable partners for Ukraine. Units have put forward proposals – about contracts: new contracts currently being developed, which will form the foundation of our professional army – and also proposals on procedures within the Armed Forces.

It is good that direct financing to brigades is effective, and units can purchase what they need and produce what they need. I thank all the craftsmen working for our army – we will simplify the procedures we discussed today so it becomes much easier to work with drops and with explosives. I directed an increase in funding for the corps on key directions and discussed this with the command. There are things that still need to be unified – both in production and in procedures, particularly between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our National Guard. We discussed how recruiting works in detail and how to add more motivation for our warriors. There are many ideas for new weapons development, and right now, the first and main priority is drones. The largest share of funds goes to drones and components, and that is right and necessary. However, we are looking for every way to increase our ability to achieve results. The key task is increasing crews and boosting supplies.

The Russian army has once again been forced to push back the deadlines it had drawn up for itself for capturing our Pokrovsk and our Dobropillia. And every Russian loss in these very areas of the Donetsk region, on the border with our Dnipro region, and also in Kupyansk – every Russian loss – contributes to our ability to defend our state, to protect our people, our independence.

It is symbolic that today we have truly the most positive European Commission report in three years – the strongest result for Ukraine in three years. This gives all of us, all Ukrainians, even more motivation as Europe recognizes our joint efforts. Ukraine is doing everything to gain EU membership. Even in wartime, even amid the toughest battles, our state keeps moving forward – and only forward – in the membership talks, which is absolutely unprecedented across Europe. Every other EU member state has followed a much easier path. And it is crucial that our results are met with proper support in Europe – that the European Union fulfils its commitments. Ukraine is ready to open the clusters, and we need a European decision on this. I want to thank everyone who is truly helping us! I am proud of our people, proud of every single one of our warriors. Thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska visited a foster family and the School of Superheroes in Pokrovsk today.

Olena Zelenska and the Foundation Team Visited a Large Foster Family and the School of Superheroes in the Poltava Region

4 November 2025 – 18:05

The First Lady of Ukraine, together with the team of the Olena Zelenska Foundation, visited a large foster family in the Poltava region, for whom a new home was built this year, with the support of the Hilti Foundation, as part of the “Room for Childhood” project.

Olha and Oleksandr Checher’s family shared their story. They spoke about their life after moving in and showed what their new home looks like now.

“Every house we build within the ‘Room for Childhood’ project is not just about housing. It is primarily about the opportunity for children to grow up in a family, surrounded by those who support, protect, and love them. When you see a family that, after everything they’ve been through, once again has their own home, filled with children’s laughter and a sense of family warmth – you realize: this is what we strive for – for every child to have not a temporary shelter, but a true home where they are awaited, accepted, and cared for,” said the President’s wife.

“Room for Childhood” is a project of the Olena Zelenska Foundation aimed at building new homes for large foster families. Its goal is to provide them with comfortable housing while promoting family-based upbringing as an alternative to institutional care. Within the first wave of the project, the Foundation built 17 houses across eight regions of Ukraine.

Following the successful completion of the first wave, in May 2025, the Foundation announced the launch of the second wave – primarily for foster families ready to welcome more children into their care. The Foundation has already begun constructing the next 20 such homes with the support of international partners: ten funded by the United Arab Emirates and another ten made possible by a grant allocated by the Danish Business Authority through a donation from the A.P. Møller Relief Foundation.

Olena Zelenska and the Foundation team also visited the School of Superheroes in Poltava. The educational space, operating on the premises of a children’s hospital, ensures uninterrupted learning for children undergoing treatment.

“The School’s educational center in Poltava has been operating for almost a year – the first of its kind in the city. Every month, more than 100 children who are in hospital can continue their studies, keep developing despite illness, and experience positive emotions,” said Nataliia Zhilinska, Director of the State Institution “School of Superheroes.”

The establishment of the center was funded by the Olena Zelenska Foundation with the support of an international partner from South Korea: the charity Good Steward Inc. FEBC-Korea.

Georgia:

The people of Georgia persist, Day 342 of #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 12:41 PM

Day 342 of uninterrupted, nationwide protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪❤️✊

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM

“Georgian education is in danger.”

Three civic movements — Freedom Square, Movement for Social Democracy, and Georgian Education Is in Danger — are holding a protest against the new so-called education reform.

They warn the new regulations will harm the system and be used as a tool of repression.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:19 AM

Persistence isn’t the thing we lack, that’s for sure.

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

📷 Merab Metreveli

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 2:34 PM

The regime police brutally assaulted former political prisoner Giorgi Akhobadze.

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 4:33 AM

Rusiko Kobakhidze, a mother of 9 children, consciously risking jail to protest the Russian takeover and a dictatorship in Georgia.

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 2:48 PM

At least three more people have been arrested tonight in Georgia: Paata Shamugia, Vazha Berishvili, Beka Agulashvili.

📷 Netgazeti

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 2:03 PM

Protesters distract the regime police that is there to hunt individual protesters at the Freedom Square metro station.

Next thing to be banned: banners. Or just standing near a policeman.

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

📷 @mariamnikuradze.bsky.social

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 4:34 PM

Yesterday, a mother and a daughter risked jail together, holding their hands.

For merely protesting.

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:23 PM

Poland:

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has shown the wreckage of Russian drones found on Polish territory.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:38 AM

Germany:

Reuters reports that Germany plans to increase its financial aid to Ukraine by around €3 billion in 2026. The funds will be used for artillery, drones, and armored personnel carriers.
www.reuters.com/world/german…

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 11:49 AM

Back to Ukraine.

🔥Infographic of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

From x.com/khoholenko/s…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 4:02 AM

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence released a video compilation of combat operations in the Zaporizhzhia and Lyman sectors over the past week, showing a series of ambushes, assaults through wooded areas, the capture of prisoners, drone strikes, and other battlefield actions.

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 6:40 AM

Another sleepless night for Russia, as Ukrainian forces continue their deep-strike campaign, now a new element of daily life in the country. Ukraine successfully hit multiple important targets tonight

🧵Thread:

1. Video showing the aftermath of the attack on the refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod:

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 11:09 PM

2/ Sterlitamak petrochemical plant: According to local media, part of a production workshop collapsed following an explosion.

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 11:09 PM

3/ Another successful strike: explosions, reportedly in Dovzhansk, Luhansk Oblast, were captured on video

Source: Exilenova_plus

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 11:09 PM

Check out this deep dive into Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian oil refineries complete with detailed analysis, accessible infographics, videos, and a breakdown of scale and strategy.
www.reuters.com/graphics/UKR…

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 1:41 PM

A couple of weeks old, but interesting nonetheless. From Reuters:

“You don’t have the cards,” Donald Trump famously told Volodymyr Zelenskiy during their Oval Office showdown in February as he dismissed Ukraine’s capabilities in the war against Russia.

As the two leaders prepare to meet in the White House again, Ukraine’s military remains on the back foot — but it has shown it has at least one potent play to hit the enemy where it hurts: long-range drone strikes on Russia’s crucial energy industry.

Last month, Zelenskiy described the attacks on the oil sector, which funds and fuels Moscow’s war effort, as “the sanctions that work the fastest”. Reuters can reveal the scale of the campaign and the strategy behind it, drawing on data from independent researchers, footage of some attacks, plus interviews with seven Ukrainian sources with knowledge of the strikes.

Ukraine has launched at least 58 attacks on key Russian energy sites since the start of August, sending drones as far as about 2,000 km (1,200 miles) into Russian territory to bomb refineries, pumping stations, storage depots and export terminals, according to data compiled by UK-based non-profit group Open Source Centre (OSC).

That compares with just one such strike in June and two in July.

A senior Ukrainian government source, who requested anonymity to discuss security matters, told Reuters the primary goal of the campaign was to create shortages of key products like gasoline and diesel within Russia, making it harder for Moscow to push forward on the front lines.

The impact is being felt.

Drone strikes at various refineries knocked out around 17% of Russia’s refining capacity in mid-August, or 1.2 million barrels per day, which rose to 21%, or 1.4 million barrels per day, by the end of that month, according to Reuters calculations.

Domestic gasoline prices in Russia have risen by about a tenth and sporadic queues have appeared at filling stations. The strikes on refining have also served to push more crude towards export, reshaping Russia’s energy trade, according to LSEG data.

The recent attacks are not the first time Ukraine has launched long-range drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), at Russian energy installations. But the frequency of attacks is the highest since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of February 2022, as the range and payloads of drones grow.

Russia, for its part, has been pummelling Ukraine’s power and natural gas facilities in the last two months, causing widespread blackouts and water shortages across the country.

The Kremlin didn’t respond to a request for comment for this article. Russian officials have said no external power will force them to change course in the conflict and that attacks on the oil industry are dangerously escalatory.

Russia’s energy industry isn’t under critical threat, as Kyiv itself acknowledges.

Sergey Vakulenko, an oil and gas specialist at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said only repeated successful strikes on refineries could knock the facilities out of service.

“Russia’s oil refineries are facing a lot of problems, but things are far from catastrophic,” he wrote in a report. “How the situation develops in the coming months depends on whether Ukraine is able to maintain the pace of … or even ramp up attacks.”

Following Russia’s invasion, Western allies prohibited Kyiv from firing the weapons they provided at targets deep inside Russian territory for fear of escalating the conflict, leading Ukraine to develop its own drone capabilities.

Both sides in the war produced between about 1.5 and 2 million military drones of all types last year, according to officials, underlining the rapid expansion of aerial warfare. Zelenskiy said in November last year that Ukraine would produce at least 30,000 long-range drones in 2025.

The Ukrainian Liutyi and FP-1 long-range drones, powered by small engines and able to fly in excess of 1,000 km, are among the workhorses of the campaign to hit energy assets.

A source with knowledge of Ukraine’s long-range attacks against Russian energy facilities said that operations typically include between 20 and 30 drones designed to dive into targets laden with explosives, with a smaller number of decoys sometimes sent beforehand to drain Russia’s air defences.

Sometimes drone fleets can be much larger — Zelenskiy said at a news briefing in early October that up to 300 drones had been deployed in a single operation.

Ukraine’s main challenge is scale. Though it is constantly increasing production, it doesn’t have enough drones to routinely overwhelm Russia’s air defences, while Russia is also improving its interception rate, meaning a smaller proportion are reaching their targets, according to the source.

Satellite imagery verified by Reuters also shows what appear to be anti-drone nets and structures over key parts of the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery located some 1,400 km away from the Ukrainian border.

The source familiar with Ukraine’s attacks said various means were used for navigation and targeting drone strikes.

One of the main methods is visual navigation, where the drone uses an on-board camera to match features on the ground to a pre-loaded map. Unlike GPS-guided navigation, this cannot be hacked or jammed by Russian electronic warfare systems.

Another common way is to use advanced satellite-navigation antennas designed to block out unusual signals that seek to jam or disorient the system, while the craft continues to receive its real position from satellites in space.

Much more at the link including charts, graphs, and images/visualizations.

A drone of the Ukrainian security service scouted a city buildings from the inside and discovered a Russian infantryman hiding inside.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 8:34 AM

Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

In Nikopol, russian troops struck an ambulance while it was transporting a patient to the hospital.
Three medics were injured.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 2:56 AM

Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

Russia attacked the Synelnykove district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing a woman and injuring eight others, including two children.
A 5-year-old girl is in critical condition.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 3:51 AM

Kharkiv Oblast:

In Kharkiv region As a result of a nighttime attack by Russian UAVs, multiple fires broke out, with injuries reported among both civilians and firefighters.

In the village of Dokuchaevske, three separate fires were recorded: two private homes, a gas pipeline, and a civilian infrastructure facility

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 2:13 AM

wereset ablaze. One of the Russian drones struck the building of the local Rohanska fire brigade, causing significant damage to the fire station and its equipment.

In the village of Ruska Lozova, a private home caught fire.

6 civilians were injured in the attack, including 2 volunteer firefighters

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 2:13 AM

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Yet another horrific video has surfaced online of russians deliberately and cynically murdering two unarmed civilians who tried to walk away from the frontline under a white flag with their dog in the Kharkiv region.

White flag. Civilian clothes. No resistance. Just a dog.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:06 AM

An inhuman, disgusting war crime carried out deliberately with two separate drones. Again.

There are no words to describe this cruelty and no more ways to explain why russia must be stopped, if even cases like this one are not convincing enough.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:06 AM

ALL CLEAR!!!!

Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

🇺🇦🦾 In Pokrovsk, soldiers of the 79th Brigade approach a building occupied by Russians and blow it up with a TM-62M mine. In addition, paratroopers capture several occupiers. Ukrainian soldiers demonstrate heroism and courage every day in the battle for Pokrovsk.

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 9:42 AM

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has released unique footage of combat operations on the front line by fighters of the “Timur Special Unit” in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region. The DIU operation in the designated area of Pokrovsk is ongoing.
t.me/c/1606301574…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 4:56 AM

Southern Ukraine:

🔥👌 Spectacular footage of three enemy vehicles with electronic warfare equipment being destroyed by State Border Service soldiers in the south!

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 12:52 PM

Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian Defence Intelligence conducted a targeted strike on the Russian “Rubikon” UAV command post in occupied Avdiivka. An FP-2 drone carrying over 100 kg of explosives hit the site, eliminating several Russian officers and drone operators.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 7:16 AM

Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast:

The Russian army carried out an airstrike on Dobropillia in the Donetsk region, partially destroying a five-story residential building.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 12:57 PM

Kherson Oblast:

Fighters of Ukraine’s “Bratstvo” unit, part of the “Timur Special Unit,” conducted a successful reconnaissance and sabotage mission in the “grey zone” near the Velyki Kuchuhury islands at the bottom of the former Kakhovka Reservoir.
t.me/c/1606301574…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 6:47 AM

Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia:

Hope all your oil burns, along with your refineries, your money, and your ability to murder people in your neighboring state with them.

Kstovo, Russia.

Burn!

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 3, 2025 at 9:08 PM

Kstovo — a little tour of the Lukoil refinery. The video shows repairs being carried out on a distillation column responsible for primary oil processing, which was damaged after previous attacks. They say that everything was “shot down” last night — it’s just that “debris was falling.”

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 8:16 AM

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

An “Atesh” partisan completely burned down a relay cabinet on a local communication tower. This paralyzed military communications and the transmission of operational data in the Kursk region, which is a key border area.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 10:52 AM

Volgograd Oblast:

According to local public channels, drones also attacked a 500 kV substation in the city of Frolovo, Volgograd region. Russians in local chats are whining about communication problems.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:50 AM

The Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia:

At night in Russia, in Bashkortostan, drones attacked a petrochemical plant in the city of Sterlitamak. Local residents heard explosions and reported seeing smoke.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 4:29 AM

Oryol Oblast, Russia:

Oryol, Russia 💥💥💥

[image or embed]

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:47 PM

More from Oryol 👀💥

[image or embed]

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:50 PM

❗️

[image or embed]

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 5:50 PM

Oryol… missiles? 🚀👀

[image or embed]

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 4, 2025 at 6:01 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Today the Hachiko team is in Cherkask, eastern 🇺🇦—these tiny kittens were found at Tetiana’s gate sick & exhausted. We provided ear & eye drops, flea & tick treatment, deworming tablets, and nutritious paste for kittens. Now the little ones are in safe hands and a warm home. 🙏😻

[image or embed]

— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 2:39 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,349: The Cost and the ReasonPost + Comments (8)

Open Thread: Oligarchs Love the Panglossians

by Anne Laurie|  November 4, 20254:00 pm| 86 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Our Failed Media Experiment

Poll: Americans say “too divided”
Pundit: Dems are being too divisive
Poll: Legal system unfair
Pundit: The public thinks Trump should get away with crimes
Poll: Low trust in media
Pundits: MSM is too far left
Every time they see a nonspecific term and assume everyone thinks like a Republican.

[image or embed]

— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 10:04 AM

Do our pundits know that Voltaire meant ‘All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds’ as satire? Or do people like Ezra Klein just agree with the oligarchs who believe that their personal success vindicates the current political situation, because it’s been a very profitable career choice for Ezra Klein and his ilk?

When a voter says politics is too divided, could they be thinking of the current president who constantly works to divide people?
Can’t be. They must be saying appease MAGA.
When a voter says they don’t trust the media, could they be thinking of Fox, or criticizing NYT from the left?
Can’t be.

— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 10:10 AM

Assuming every poll respondent pictures the same thing when they respond to an ambiguous question is a social science error.
When someone says “too divisive” or “I don’t trust institutions,” that doesn’t tell us who, what, or why.
Not data analysis. The pundit’s fallacy, dressed up with numbers.

— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 10:18 AM

There's also a weird conventional wisdom forming that the Democratic agenda is toxically unpopular and that Republicans are delivering what voters want.
This is laughably false. Trump is the most unpopular president in modern history and his entire agenda is underwater.

[image or embed]

— Michael Hobbes (@michaelhobbes.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 8:51 AM

Klein is right that Dems have to win in red states and that the party should be engaging in some soul-searching right now.
But the soul-searching should begin with basic facts. Moderation *is* the current strategy and Dems are losing despite having a popular agenda. More of the same won't fix it.

— Michael Hobbes (@michaelhobbes.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 8:55 AM

The items in their agenda are popular, yet the impression for a vast number of people is that their agenda sucks.
Thats partly on us for not delivering the message well, but mostly on the bad guys for lying so relentlessly about it on every platform where those people get their information.

— johnpfree (@johnpfree.bsky.social) November 2, 2025 at 9:02 AM

Open Thread: Oligarchs Love the PanglossiansPost + Comments (86)

Big Law’s Big Choice (Paging Our Balloon Juice Attorneys)

by WaterGirl|  November 4, 20252:15 pm| 88 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

Really interesting article from Paul Rosenweig about chickens coming home to roost!

Big Law’s Big Choice (Paging Our Balloon Juice Attorneys) 2
Getty images

I know some of you don’t like the Bulwark, but as long as we are fighting the demise of the rule of law together, I’m not going to dismiss them out of hand.

I would love to hear from our various BJ attorneys – are the 9 who signed these (I think, sleazy) agreements in a bind, and is it realistic to think they would seriously consider backing out of the agreement?

A D.C. Bar opinion shows why it would be ethical for the nine Big Law firms to rescind their settlement agreements with Trump. But to do so would invite his wrath.

When nine Big Law firms settled with Donald Trump (or, perhaps more accurately, cravenly “caved” to him), they probably thought that discretion was the better part of valor. Why fight with the big dog when the fight will only hurt, and when there is no apparent downside to surrender?

The downside has now become apparent. As reported in the New York Times, the District of Columbia Bar Legal Ethics Committee recently issued an opinion calling into grave question the ethical appropriateness of Big Law’s settlements with Trump.

Though the opinion does not mention Trump by name, the upshot of the opinion is that the big law firms that settled with him have to address significant ethical questions. Taken seriously, this opinion is a quiet earthquake that might shake the foundations of several law firms both because it says that what the law firms have done may have violated the Rules of Professional Conduct and because it also suggests that their violations cannot be cured without rescinding their agreements with Trump.

To see why, it’s worth backing up a bit to set the groundwork.

I can’t share the whole article, but it’s definitely worth reading the whole thing!

One of the most important aspects of the Rules of Professional Conduct is a prohibition against conflicts of interest. For example, a conflict of interest might arise when one lawyer in a large law firm is representing a client (let’s call him Client A) and another potential client (Client B) wants to sue Client A. As a general matter, a lawyer cannot represent one client in a suit against another existing client—at least not without the consent of both of the clients.

But conflicts of interest do not arise exclusively between clients. A lawyer’s own financial or personal interests also may create a conflict between her clients and her. And so, the rules provide that: “a lawyer shall not represent a client with respect to a matter if . . . the lawyer’s professional judgment on behalf of the client will be or reasonably may be adversely affected by . . . the lawyer’s own financial, business, property, or personal interests.”

Toward the end of the article:

There are only three ways to eliminate a conflict—get an informed waiver from the client, drop the client, or remove the conflict. The D.C. Bar opinion makes clear that the waiver option may not be realistic. The firms may not in fact be capable of securing knowing waivers from their clients since the indefinite nature of their commitments to Trump render any disclosure almost by definition incomplete.

And no firm wants to drop a big institutional paying client. But none of them are any happier following this analysis to its logical conclusion—that the only foolproof way to remove the conflict is by withdrawing from the agreement with Trump.

Discuss!

 

Big Law’s Big Choice (Paging Our Balloon Juice Attorneys)Post + Comments (88)

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