(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: Ruby appears to have made a full recovery and Rosie is still doing very well ahead of her next chemo treatment on Monday. Thank you all again for your good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and/or donations to Rosie’s GoFundMe.
One correction from last night: Putin and his entourage went to Beijing. I wrote that Xi had gone to Moscow.
As I begin writing tonight’s update – at 7:30 PM EDT – air raid alerts are up from Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava Oblasts in the northeast through Kirovohrad Oblast in central Ukraine to Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts in southern Ukraine. An air raid alert has just gone up – 7:50 PM EDT – for Vinnytsia Oblast.
Two years ago today at Azovstal. Don't forget that more than 900 Mariupol defenders are still in the russian captivity pic.twitter.com/P0U7f7ldHh
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) May 16, 2024
Russia has continued bombarding Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, as well as other parts of Ukraine.
Speaks volumes.
(📷: mfaukraine/IG) pic.twitter.com/KvWC4BHjCi
— Тетяна Denford 🇺🇦🔱 (@TetyanaUkrainka) May 16, 2024
Evacuation from Vovchansk becomes extremely dangerous. Today, Russia bombed evacuation point. With each passing day, more people are desperate to escape. This 92-year-old woman, who lived through WWII occupation, says this is far worse than anything she’s ever experienced. pic.twitter.com/hMnAp5w6qG
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 17, 2024
UPD. Three civilians were killed and 28 were injured today in Kharkiv.
📷libkos/IG pic.twitter.com/N0xZfwqNvU
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 17, 2024
Russian forces are also continuing to commit crimes against humanity. I’m not embedding it, but Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance has captured video of a Ukrainian in a wheelchair killed on the grounds of a hospital in the Russian occupied portion of Vovchansk. The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office is treating this as an execution of a civilian trying to flee the Russian occupation. Do NOT go looking for the video or the still imagery!!! You don’t need to see it!!!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Our Energy Sector Has Lost a Significant Part of Its Production, there is a Need for a Rational Consumption of Electricity Again — Address by the President
17 May 2024 – 19:47
Dear Ukrainians!
A brief summary of this day.
Our military. The Commander-in-Chief reported on the situation at the front. The Kharkiv directions: Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Kupyansk. We are deterring Russian pressure. I thank each brigade, each unit. We also continue to focus on the Donetsk directions, first of all, the Pokrovsk one — where the situation is the most difficult, with the highest number of battles. In fact, the entire Kharkiv operation of the occupier is aimed at weakening our overall forces along the front, and, at the same time, it is an attempt to strengthen its propaganda — propaganda aimed also at world leaders. Russia wants to show that they are the ones who determine what happens next in the war. Our task is to thwart Russia’s attempt to expand the war and to prevent the occupier from breaking both the frontline and our diplomacy — our way of bringing a just peace closer.
I have just had a long meeting on the preparations for the first Peace Summit to be held in Switzerland in June. This is the first real opportunity to bring a just end to this war closer. The Office team, our international experts, and all those involved in working with partners on the Summit were present at today’s meeting. We have almost a month to go before the Summit, a month of our work. We already have the confirmations of states from all the continents to participate in the Summit. We will definitely continue to work at all levels to make the event effective. I will continue my communication with the leaders, the team will keep working at the level of national security advisors, as well as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Parliament, civic leaders… And we also use our informal ties with partners. Ukraine and many other countries have already been through so many Russian meannesses and deceptions — Russian violations of agreements and promises, that only the world majority together can ensure that Russia is effectively forced to respect the UN Charter, the international law, and real peace.
And there was another important meeting today. We had a very detailed and long conversation about the protection and restoration of our energy sector, and the situation in the energy industry in general. Prime Minister Shmyhal, the Minister of Energy, the military, and the representatives of energy companies. Now, after the Russian strikes, our energy sector has lost a significant part of its production. Time is needed to restore it. Much effort is needed to further develop the energy sector — the new energy sector, which will be able to function despite the threats of Russian terror. In addition, we are already preparing for the next heating season, which includes, in particular, scheduled repairs and preparation of nuclear generation. Therefore, there is a need for a very rational, thoughtful consumption of electricity again. Both at the Government level and at the level of regional and local authorities, as well as at the level of energy companies, we need to ensure that the public is fully informed about how power cuts happen now, when there is a peak load, and why we need everyone to be conscious of their consumption. Of course, we are working to provide Ukraine with more air defense protection. We are working with all our partners on a regular basis, and we are convincing them.
And one more thing.
Russian terror will never remain unpunished. Step by step, we are making sure that the Russian state feels the consequences and the price of its evil. I thank everyone who works for this, who produces our drones, our weapons. And everyone who uses them — and uses them accurately. Thank you!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s the details on the energy shortages and rationing:
⚡Ukrenergo: Restrictions on energy supply for industrial users remain in effect due to power shortage.
Limitations will be applied from 7 p.m. to midnight local time on May 18, while restrictions for domestic users are not forecasted for the same day.https://t.co/VwAaK3S1bx
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 17, 2024
From The Kyiv Independent:
Ukraine will uphold restrictions on energy supply for industrial users due to the damage caused by recent Russian attacks against the Ukrainian energy system, the state-owned energy operator Ukrenergo announced on May 17.
Moscow has recently intensified its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, destroying several thermal power plants across the country. This included the Trypillia plant, the main electricity supplier to Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Cherkasy oblasts.
Russia carried out another large-scale attack on May 8 against Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, and Vinnytsia oblasts, mainly targeting energy infrastructure. At least two hydroelectric power plants had to be decommissioned as a result of attacks.
Limitations for industrial users will be applied from 7 p.m. to midnight local time on May 18, while restrictions for domestic users are not forecasted for the same day, according to Ukrenergo.
Ukrenergo also warned that power shutdowns can still occur in the region if the limit of power usage is exceeded.
The schedules of the potential shutdowns can be found on the personal online accounts of energy supply users, as well as on the website or social media of the regional energy operator.
Ukrenergo previously implemented rolling blackouts in all of the Ukrainian regions for both industrial and domestic users on May 15.
“The capacity of Ukrainian power plants is not enough due to the consequences of five missile and drone attacks carried out by Russia on Ukraine’s energy system since March 22,” the statement read.
There is another frontline in the war in #Ukraine.
Between #energy workers who heat homes and light streets and russian #missiles that destroy power stations and bring only darkness.
After relentless russian attacks in the last two months, Ukraine's energy workers face a… pic.twitter.com/zXW1lsTMS7
— DTEK Group (@dtek_en) May 13, 2024
There is another frontline in the war in #Ukraine.
Between #energy workers who heat homes and light streets and russian #missiles that destroy power stations and bring only darkness.
After relentless russian attacks in the last two months, Ukraine’s energy workers face a race against time. They need the world’s help to protect our skies and find equipment to restore the energy system, before winter arrives.
Please share and join our #FightForLight: https://linktr.ee/fightforlight
President @ZelenskyyUa:
"russia has not stopped terrorizing our people for a single week in more than two years of this war.russia tries to expand the war while consistently making empty statements about peace. We must use all available means to force russia to make a real and… pic.twitter.com/9MwVWGIwOr
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 17, 2024
President @ZelenskyyUa:
“russia has not stopped terrorizing our people for a single week in more than two years of this war.russia tries to expand the war while consistently making empty statements about peace. We must use all available means to force russia to make a real and just peace. Our defense against russian assaults and strikes is critical in this regard.
I am grateful to everyone who defends Ukraine!
I thank all the countries that help us!”
"For the first time since the start of the war, none of the brigades complain that there are no artillery projectiles. And this has been happening for the last 2 months. However, we still have to work a lot. The Czech initiative will go ahead. We are negotiating with all partners… pic.twitter.com/dUtIoFcMq7
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) May 17, 2024
“For the first time since the start of the war, none of the brigades complain that there are no artillery projectiles. And this has been happening for the last 2 months. However, we still have to work a lot. The Czech initiative will go ahead. We are negotiating with all partners about money,” Zelenskyi said.
https://rbc.ua/rus/news/front-zbroya-kadrovi-rotatsiyi-ta-mir-golovni-1715931411.html
From RBC-Ukraine:
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the media, outlining the Russian objectives in the Kharkiv region, his vision for the withdrawal of Russian troops, the stance of international partners and their fears, and commenting on personnel rotations within the Cabinet and the Presidential Office.
Situation in Kharkiv region
Speaking about the situation in the Kharkiv region, the head of state noted that he had a substantive meeting with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, commanders of Operational Strategic Group Khortytsia, Yurii Sodol, and Operational Tactical Group Kharkiv, Mykhailo Drapatyi, as well as border guards including State Border Guard Service head Serhii Deineko and National Police representatives.
According to Zelenskyy, Ukrainian Defense Forces have “stabilized the Russians where they are now.” The deepest advancement of the occupiers is 10 kilometers. In some brigade directions, the enemy has made no progress at all.
“We have very powerful brigades, I am grateful to them. We have reinforced several directions with individual battalions, reallocating from reserves and other directions. The crossing of the border by the Russians is due to a lack of air defense. They operate with aerial bombs and artillery where they have an advantage… 8 months of partners delaying decisions made it difficult for our troops,” explains the president.
Regarding fortifications, Zelenskyy said that no one has reached the concrete defense line, dismissing claims as nonsense.
“The enemy reached the first line. The first line is not the border, it is impossible to build there because of the weapons used by the Russians, which caused our people to die. That is approximately where they are now. The first line was built during the war, under constant fire, by our military. The second line is also built by the military, and the third line, constructed by local authorities, is the strongest—not because they are better than the military, but simply because it is farther from the weapons, shells, and shelling,” said Zelenskyy.
According to the head of state, the Russian goal is Vovchansk. Beyond that, they want a 10-kilometer zone and aim to develop any success they achieve. However, for now, the situation is stabilized by our Defense Forces, said Zelenskyy.
Permission for using Western weapons on Russian territory
Regarding Ukraine’s use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory, the president does not believe there should be any prohibitions “because this is not about the Ukrainian army’s offensive using Western weapons on Russian territory.”
“This is defense. It is like the preventive sanctions we spoke of before the full-scale invasion. It is the same. It is a warning. Moreover, they have the same ‘gray’ zone. They also have evacuation areas. There are almost no civilians on their border for understandable reasons,” emphasized Zelenskyy.
Blinken’s visit
As the president recounted, the visit of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Ukraine had several objectives.
“Firstly, a $2 billion aid package. Secondly, US proposals for security guarantees. A draft Treaty on Security Guarantees already exists. Thirdly, we discussed our vision for the NATO Summit. They heard our vision, accepted the information, and will return with feedback,” Zelenskyy shared.
However, he stressed that the main issue is air defense.
“At what stage is the dialogue with this or that country that has the relevant systems. Where we see them, where our partners see them, when it might happen, and what needs to be done for this,” Zelenskyy added.
Negotiations with Russia
During his conversation with journalists, the president also emphasized that Western partners are not pushing Ukraine to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.
“Partners are not pushing us. Although I think there is such an atmosphere in the world. And here we need to be very firm and strong. The correct platform has been chosen today where we have the initiative—the Peace Summit,” Zelenskyy believes.
Goals for peace summit
Speaking about the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland (to be held on June 15-16, 2024) and its goals, the head of state said that Kyiv aims to achieve a communiqué.
“We want to achieve energy security, including nuclear one. Because I believe everyone is interested in this, and it could allow us to forecast another winter. We want to achieve free navigation. Any cargo through Ukrainian waters without risk. This is also the safety of people in Odesa and the South in general. Because they hit ports—this affects infrastructure, the sea, and the economy. We also want to make a serious step towards prisoner exchange. In the humanitarian aspect, prisoner exchange is a double issue, as with energy. Energy is nuclear safety, which everyone supports. I think where there is nuclear safety, we can talk about the overall security of the energy system. Regarding exchange. Where there is a prisoner exchange, there is the return of children. That is what we want to achieve,” Zelenskyy explained.
Withdrawal of Russian troops
President also outlined how he sees the mechanism of withdrawing Russian troops from Ukraine. According to him, it is important to involve a large number of countries in this issue.
“If we have a serious number of countries and there is a corresponding communique, I believe this will be our diplomatic advantage. After that, we can organize platforms in various countries where each of these points will be technically worked out. And then this plan can be presented to the representatives of Russia. It’s like it was with the grain initiative: we agreed on a plan with the UN and Türkiye, and then they separately agreed on this plan with Russia, the first corridor,” he said.
Zelenskyy emphasized that “it is important that there are not just 2 countries, but many countries.”
“Otherwise, the Russians will jump out, as was the case with the grain corridor, and we had to build another corridor. It was very difficult. And that’s why we have such a plan on these 3 points. If we succeed, it definitely opens the way to the next meeting, where all other important matters should be addressed,” the president said.
According to him, the Ukrainian government has such a vision: before talking to Russia, there must be a detailed plan that is approved by the entire world.
“We are working on different fronts. I speak with leaders. Diplomats Andrii Yermak is dealing with. Yesterday he presented an analytical document on Ukraine to NATO with Rasmussen in Denmark. In Brussels, he and our team met with many ambassadors, including China and the Global South, regarding the summit,” the president added.
Ukraine’s accession to EU and NATO
Speaking about accession to the European Union and NATO, the head of state expressed the opinion that the Ukrainian side has done everything possible so far.
“It’s only about politics now. That is, instrumentally and operationally, we have done everything to open negotiations with the EU for Ukraine in June. I think everything will work out there. Even difficult partners today have become a bit simpler. We have actively worked with them,” Zelenskyy said.
Government and Presidential Office rotations
He briefly commented on personnel matters in the Cabinet of Ministers and the Presidential Office, stating that it “needs to be resolved.”
“We talked about it with the prime minister. Today we have acting duties in several ministries. This needs to be addressed,” Zelenskyy said.
Situation with weapons and Czech initiative
The president assured that progress is being made even with the Czech initiative concerning artillery ammunition.
“For the first time in years of war, none of the brigades complain that there is no artillery shell. And this has been happening for the past 2 months. However, much more work still needs to be done. The Czech initiative will go on. We are negotiating money with all partners,” he informed.
According to Zelenskyy, an initiative is now being opened where partners will provide funds for the production of our drones – EW systems specifically in this particular direction. He added that the technical indicators of Ukrainian drones are improving.
“We are starting to produce a lot of them, but there is not enough money for them. We are capable of producing more than there is money,” the president said.
Partners’ positions and fears
In Zelenskyy’s opinion, partners fear the defeat of the Russian Federation in this war.
“They would like Ukraine to win so that Russia does not lose. Because it will be an unpredictable defeat and unpredictable geopolitics. I believe that this does not work that way. For Ukraine to win, we need to give it everything that winners have,” he said.
Macron’s idea of Western troops in Ukraine
Zelenskyy also commented on French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement regarding the possible deployment of foreign troops to Ukraine.
“Training in Ukraine is logical, we have already talked about this. It’s faster than going, for example, to France or even to Poland. And then there is cooperation on demining, and we can create a hub for repairing French equipment in Ukraine, so that it doesn’t have to be sent to France. I look at this very positively, to be honest. All this could be a step that would push other countries as well. That is, it opens a new page in this war,” the president believes.
Ceasefire during Olympics and potential duration of war
The President of Ukraine said that he does not yet believe in a ceasefire with Russia during the summer Olympic Games.
“We have had a ceasefire already. But it doesn’t work very well with this enemy. Besides, there is a risk – who will make sure that their forces won’t approach us during the ceasefire? Ceasefire doesn’t prevent them from getting closer with equipment and then launching an offensive. That is, I don’t understand the details. For me, it still sounds like a dead story,” Zelenskyy said.
The president believes that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not interested in dialogue with the whole world because even China will tell him: “Explain the occupation of territories!”
“Because China stands for the territorial integrity of any state. Today there should be grounds for Putin to seek a way out of this situation. Because now he has no discomfort. Because where are we shooting? What can we attack? With what? How will they help us economically? Will sanctions put enough pressure on them or not? Will there be a tribunal or not? We need to answer to each of these questions. And work and advance on each of these fronts every day,” the president summed up.
If Tatarigami’s take regarding President Zelenskyy’s statement on ammunition availability is correct, then this is a major CIV-MIL problem:
According to Ukrainian media Liga, Zelensky said today that "none of the brigades are complaining about the lack of artillery shells. This has been the case for the past two months." This is out of touch with reality and a result of positive reporting promotion in the top brass pic.twitter.com/1upEOTDK4s
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 17, 2024
Illia Ponomarenko writes about the two wars that Ukraine is fighting:
There's one thing that one should keep in mind as he or she follows the developments in Ukraine.
The people of Ukraine are actually fighting two wars at the same time. Apart from the Russian invasion, the largest war of aggression in Europe since Adolf Hitler, there's another…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 17, 2024
There’s one thing that one should keep in mind as he or she follows the developments in Ukraine.
The people of Ukraine are actually fighting two wars at the same time. Apart from the Russian invasion, the largest war of aggression in Europe since Adolf Hitler, there’s another war — a domestic war of our people against so many things that undermine us from within.
It’s about corrupt officials, it’s about incompetent and populistic decision-makers, it’s about those who embezzle our money allocated on fortifications and defenses, it’s about those who give exemptions from military conscription to sports-betting firms (with very murky tax records), and don’t it to charity foundations providing the military with fast and vital aid.
It’s also, for instance, about entire departments of the SBU security service spying on anti-corruption investigating journalists during the war with Russia.
It’s a war against so many things that try to drag us back to what we used to be – a weak and corrupt informal Russian colony.
Just like the “military” war with the foreign invader, this internal war for saving this country from its own dark side has had its victories and setbacks.
Every time high-profile malpractice is exposed in the open, it is fought daily, triggering a scandal and a public uproar.
And these two wars are interconnected.
A favorable outcome of the war against Russia’s aggression is not possible without significant victories in this domestic war of ours.
That’s our life and the struggle for national survival in the last… ten years!
And I must say that sometimes I look through the news, I can’t help but keep thinking about the fact that so many of those insolent pen-pushers in high cabinets don’t deserve to even hold a candle to all our men and women who save this country every single day and do the impossible on the fronts of Russia’s war.
Meet "Juice", the warrior from the Rubizh Brigade.
She is from Kramatorsk, Donetsk region. During the first months of the full-scale invasion, she actively volunteered, and when enemy shelling destroyed her home, she did not hesitate and joined the ranks of the AFU. Now she is… pic.twitter.com/IHY5C2WvqG
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 17, 2024
Meet “Juice”, the warrior from the Rubizh Brigade.
She is from Kramatorsk, Donetsk region. During the first months of the full-scale invasion, she actively volunteered, and when enemy shelling destroyed her home, she did not hesitate and joined the ranks of the AFU. Now she is engaged in remote mining.
The reason:
This is what Ukraine is fighting for.
📹: Yellow Bike Educational Center pic.twitter.com/pMfeNJwIrS
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 17, 2024
Lithuania:
Solidarity of the free world will lead to victory!
We are grateful to our Lithuanian friends for their steadfast support.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/LgOVbpLZ6L— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 17, 2024
Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have a new assessment of the battlespace across a number of oblasts. From the Thread Reader App:
Frontlines Situation Report – May 17th, 2024
The frontline situation remains challenging. Russian forces intensified attacks in the Bakhmut area and advanced tactically in the Kharnohorivka and Kharkiv areas. Despite this, the frontline remains relatively stable
2/ Chasiv Yar
Despite initial successes in the assault on Chasiv Yar, including reaching and occasionally crossing the canal with small groups, the Russians failed to establish a foothold. Lately, they’ve increased the use of armored fighting vehicles to advance.
3/ The situation south of Bakhmut is more complex. Russians attempted to advance toward Klischiivka with frequent and large assaults. While most of these attacks have been repelled, it’s unlikely that these attempts will cease soon, posing a continued risk to Klishchiivka4/ Kharkiv region
Our team thinks that the frontline is not stable, albeit with no signs of collapse. Russian troops try to infiltrate forests and buildings further south to establish a foothold. However, we’re skeptical about their ability to advance deeply for several reasons
5/ Initially, Russian troops dispersed infantry forces along the border, but supplying them became difficult as they moved deeper into Ukrainian territory. To push south, they need to extend logistics, which is challenging with Ukrainian brigades redeployed into the area6/ Without fully equipped mechanized units, achieving swift and decisive penetration of defenses is almost impossible. This limitation is likely to lead to slower advances (if any), hindering the overall progress of Russian forces, unless new units will be introduced.7/ Kurakhove-Krasnohorivka area
The situation is difficult, with Russian forces advancing in Krasnohorivka. They may try to reach Kurakhivka, aiming to cut off Kurakhove’s logistical routes. However, rapid advances by Russian forces are unlikely due to defenses and geography.
8/ Chernihiv area
Over the past month, our team has monitored Russian forces near Chernihiv oblasts. While no significant invasion force is seen near Chernihiv Oblast, localized incursions across the border may extend the frontline and compel Ukrainian troop redeployment.
9/ Sumy area
While we can’t estimate the current force numbers, they are larger than those near the Chernihiv oblast. We also see what seems like demonstrative actions, possibly exaggerating troop presence. The threat of another border incursion into Sumy Oblast is
very real.10/ The overall goal likely remains the same: to force Ukrainian reserve redeployment from Donbas. Yet, we haven’t seen significant deployment of new large Russian reserves to Donbas intending to turn the tide. This doesn’t rule out such deployments in the future, but not yetIf you found this text helpful, please consider supporting our volunteers and charity organizations that directly assist units on the frontlines. Kindly check out these individuals and their ongoing fundraisers:
@serhiyprytula
@jana_skhidna
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Kharkiv:
The Kyiv Independent spent 48 hours in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s most-bombed major city. Heavily damaged but never captured during the first days of Moscow's full-scale invasion, the city is now once again the focus of Russian attacks.
Watch here: https://t.co/OQZ7BW2o8m pic.twitter.com/JbUKYVPHd6
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 17, 2024
Instead of a thousand words.
The writing on the video says: "Moving around Kharkiv region. Window is open, gun is ready, due to drones. Everything is burning, everything is on fire…"
📹: libkos/Instagram pic.twitter.com/bFlOKA64ps
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 17, 2024
If you were wondering what Putin’s justification for the invasion of Kharkiv Oblast is:
Putin: “We have no plans today to capture Kharkiv”
“RF Armed Forces are achieving success every day, according to the plan”.
Post your favourite footage of RF AF “achieving success every day” below👇
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) May 17, 2024
Here’s the video clip with Dmitri’s translation:
When this man finally goes, I would highly recommend having his brain checked for worms. RFK may have a few ideas. He's making some sort of a "sanitary zone". God knows what this even means. Sends a couple of thousand Russians to certain death and doesn’t even blink an eye.… pic.twitter.com/j3dUkrwrh6
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) May 17, 2024
When this man finally goes, I would highly recommend having his brain checked for worms. RFK may have a few ideas. He’s making some sort of a “sanitary zone”. God knows what this even means. Sends a couple of thousand Russians to certain death and doesn’t even blink an eye. Nothingburger. Just numbers.
I’m not even mentioning his statement about the shelling of civilians. This is said by the man who placed the murderers from Bucha next to him during the victory parade.
This person is absolutely inadequate, he is sick. He cannot be trusted to manage a pub, let alone the country.
Sumy Oblast:
Destruction of two Russian tanks in the Kursk region of Russian near the border with Sumy region of Ukraine. https://t.co/vfpWvD4Lap
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 17, 2024
Here’s the machine translation of Sternenko’s tweet:
2 Russian tanks were destroyed at once in the Kursk region 💥
Yesterday afternoon, the Russians pulled a couple of tanks to our state border near Sumy region. At first, artillery worked on them, not quite successfully.
Then the operators of Wings to Hell 103 OBrTRO took up the case.
With the help of your drones, both tanks were burned 🔥
Chasiv Yar:
The Kraken unit is showing how they are getting to their positions in Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian warriors are risking their lives to defend a free Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/jyseoW39oH— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 17, 2024
please help me get engineering equipment (excavators) to our defenders by donating here: https://t.co/rNKFV48K0X
— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) May 17, 2024
Here’s the full text of Constantine’s first tweet:
russians have intensified assaults around Bakhmut area.
a big mechanized assault around Chasiv Yar – Ivanivske was stopped today. See the image for more details, you will also see more videos soon.
Also, infantry assaults are not stopping for the past 3 days around Ivanivske and Klishiivka. Enemy comes in much larger groups than before. Our defenders stand strong, but they are very exhausted.
🗺️https://maps.app.goo.gl/Ecvyft2TjdX8xGG56
📍: 48.585357, 37.926476
Odesa Oblast:
⚡️Explosions were reported in the city of Odesa after a warning from Ukraine's Air Force that missiles were incoming, Suspilne reported on May 17.https://t.co/1OGWh1CBOm
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 17, 2024
Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:
Editor’s note: This is a developing story.
Explosions were reported in the city of Odesa after a warning from Ukraine’s Air Force that missiles were incoming, Suspilne reported on May 17.
The extent of the damage is currently unknown, Suspilne wrote.
Odesa Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov later said that at least three people were injured in the attack and taken to the hospital.
Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper added that two more people were reported as being injured, raising the total to five.
Kiper also said that the attack caused a fire and damaged infrastructure but did not give more details.
Ukraine’s Air Force said later in the day that Russia had used three ballistic missiles in the attack, likely Iskander-M and three Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles.
Russian occupied Crimea:
/2. Russian Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Alexandrovich Kulakov, commander of military unit 85683. Killed during the attack on May 13, 2024 on the military base of the 3rd radio engineering regiment on Mount Ai-Petri Crimea.https://t.co/TIDZBuUl1S pic.twitter.com/tArz9ylj0l
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 17, 2024
Here’s the full text of the first tweet:
Claimed hits on the Russian radar site on the mountain Ai-Petri, Crimea. As a result of this mornings Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes. The fact of the attack is confirmed by Russian sources as well, however the targeted locations and damage is not mentioned. Some media claims:
“Russian air defense military base on Mount Ai-Petri was damaged as a result of the morning missile attack on Crimea. The commander of the military unit died
Today, May 13, at around 6 am, several missiles (presumably Storm Shadow) attacked military unit 85683 on Ai-Petri in Crimea, On the mountain there is a military air defense base of the 3rd Radio Engineering Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces.
As a result of the missile hit, the territory of the military unit was damaged, the commander of military unit 85683, Alexander Kulakov, and another serviceman were killed. There are also wounded, their number is being determined.”
(44.4845306, 34.0297396)
Novorossiysk, Russia:
/2. A number of objects were targeted in the Novorossiysk area. Preliminary it’s known about the strikes on:
– Grushovaya Balka oil depot
– Gazprom oil depot in Kirillovka
– Mazutnyy Terminal of the port of Novorossiysk pic.twitter.com/1dRk0vdklf— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 17, 2024
/8. Additional videos of strikes on Novorossiysk pic.twitter.com/F2s9dHMUWu
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 17, 2024
/10. As said by some Russian sources: “at least 2 UAVs attacked the Tuapse Oil Refinery, where a retification column and an area of 200 square meters caught fire.”
A week ago Reuters retthat Tuapse oil refinery resumed work after 3 months of repairs following the January drone… pic.twitter.com/Oe6CCggBOQ— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 17, 2024
Novorossiysk, Russia, this morning, a Ukrainian attack drone screams over the city at low altitude, eventually slamming into the port and exploding. pic.twitter.com/BrTsIG0J3l
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 17, 2024
"It's been over 80 drones. They're flying in a row. It's really crazy!"
Footage of a drone attack on Novorossiysk and Tuapse in Russia's Krasnodar region last night.
The commentary of witnesses is curious. https://t.co/e4npyRCHt9 pic.twitter.com/3FLgbzHlnE
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 17, 2024
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
Videos showing a Ukrainian UAV attack on Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. https://t.co/j43TTvys9Ghttps://t.co/ao0466GDBxhttps://t.co/TmuQMXpLjbhttps://t.co/ucgRrM4aKUhttps://t.co/mGcIP93ORA pic.twitter.com/RwClIB02Ew
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 17, 2024
St. Petersburg, Russia:
Russian authorities have given updated information that it was an accidental detonation of 76-mm ammunition from WWII, not a drone attack. https://t.co/9S5bMi1nJI
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 17, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets today. Here is some adjacent material:
The power of companionship
📷: 37th Marine Brigade pic.twitter.com/2nNWu143BI
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 17, 2024
Усім, хто евакуює людей, усім, хто рятує тварин – величезна подяка від усієї країни! pic.twitter.com/5D20aFwYcy
— Сергій Погребецький (@pogrebeckij) May 16, 2024
Cats are being evacuated from Vovchansk in the north of Kharkiv as Russians continue to rain bombs upon the city they are trying to re-occupy. pic.twitter.com/Q95OF5ib2k
— Nate Mook (@natemook) May 17, 2024
Open thread!
japa21
As usual, thanks, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Gin & Tonic
Minor typo in your opening graf – it’s Poltava, not Poltova, both the city and the Oblast.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: @AlaskaReader: You’re both most welcome.
Freemark
Best wishes for Rosie’s continuing recovery. And thanks again for your daily work here Adam
Carlo Graziani
The scale and range of Ukrainian drone operations are growing at an astonishing rate. 100 or more drones were launched in the latest coordinated set of raids, following the last raids by a few days. This suggests a production rate of long-range attack drones of a few hundred per week, now. That capacity is certainly not done growing, and we may soon see the equivalent of the WWII “Thousand-Bomber Raids” launched, sustainably, against Russia.
At those scales, I wonder how target selection will evolve from naval and POL targets.
patrick II
@Carlo Graziani:
I have read their goal is to produce 1 million drones this year. That is ambitious even if not met.
Westyny
Thanks, Adam. And glad to hear good news about Ruby and Rosie.
Jay
I have seen pissing from ruZZian milbloggers about the strikes on Belbek airfield, Crimea.
Apparently, there are hardened hangers on the base, but the Mig-31’s weren’t parked there,
because the hangers are full of looted luxury cars stolen from Ukrainian Crimeans.
Carlo Graziani
I feel that I should apologize for flitting in and out of these threads without sustaining discussions that I attempt to initiate. I’ve been very busy with work, and this interferes with my engagement here, despite the high value that this engagement represents to me personally.
Yesterday, I began a discussion that was inspired by the idea that strategic patience is a good framework for Ukraine and its allies to understand and interpret the current state of the war. I pointed out the unfavorable relative wastage rate incurred by Russia by opting for front-wide offensives, and that this situation has advantages for Ukraine, in that a weaker combatant benefits from imposing such differential costs on a stronger opponent.
In response, YY_ Sima Qian replied, pertinently as usual, that Russia’s strategy might be to freeze the conflict in some advantageous state at the end of the year, and that barring some Ukrainian offensive achievements, they might be successful in this given the general war-weariness in the West, and potentially even in Ukraine.
This possibility exists, although it is speculative and subject to political imponderables. What I would like to add to this perspective, however, is a reminder of the ebb-and-flow of the 2022 campaign. In 2022, Ukraine spent most of its effort on the defensive, wearing down Russian forces that hurled themselves doggedly into prepared meat-grinding kill-zones for months, until the Ukrainians were in a position to launch their devastating ripostes at Kherson and Kharkiv.
This is not a prediction, but rather a plausible (in my opinion) construction of the current Ukrainian Theory of Victory: build strike reserves while forcing the Russians to destroy their newly-inducted, barely-trained forces in meat-grinder assaults on prepared defenses that gradually withdraw, preventing routs while exacting maximum exchange rates, waiting for the correct opportunity to counter-attack and reverse the momentum of the war.
They’ve done it before. I can definitely see them wanting to revisit the 2022 campaign, rather than the indecisive and not-terribly-well-managed 2023 campaign.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: Offbeat and off-topic question, Carlo. How common is the use of «this kind» of quotation mark (as opposed to “this”) in contemporary written Italian?
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: It’s curious. There certainly doen’t appear to be a uniform typographical conensus among Italian newspapers: The Corriere Della Sera adopts the <<…>> convention, whereas La Repubblica uses “…”. Publishers of books in my possession (by Camilleri, Ferrante, and others, different publishing houses) adopt the <<…>>, and I believe that this is the literary convention. But it is a bit strange that such a convention should not be as universal as its English-language counterpart.
Out of curiosity, I checked Le Figaro and Le Monde. <<…>> is the standard in France, pretty sure.
Traveller
@Carlo Graziani: Even if you cannot finish this or that conversation, you writings, even if only partial to your thoughts on a subject, do not go unappreciated. People read them, learn and enjoy reading what you write. Best Wishes, Traveller
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: Thanks for your research.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: No need to apologize to anyone, we all have our lives & jobs, after all.
I am pretty confident that Ukraine can beat off whatever offensives the Russians can muster over the next year, especially now that the big aid package has cleared Congress & the EU/NATO appear to be stepping up a bit more, too. Decisive victory on the conventional battlefield, however, Ukraine faces the same issues that Russia does, & needs to achieve roughly 3:1 advantage in men & materiel. As we are already near mid-way through 2024, I am not sure major offensive actions are in the cards for Ukraine in 2025, either.
Of course, Ukraine’s escalating & increasingly successful/impactful drone strike campaign on Russian refining industry could perhaps exert enough pain on Russia, in lieu of major conventional battlefield successes, but I am I not sure they will be impactful enough to force Putin to negotiate w/ seriousness.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
@Gin & Tonic:
Incidentally, modern Chinese also uses «this kind» of quotation marks for titles of books, poems, songs, plays, operas, pieces of music, etc. I am sure adopted from western languages during the late 19th / early 20th century. However, modern Chinese uses “this kind” of quotation marks for actual quotes.