EvenTheLibertarian New Republic‘s Alex MacGillis says “This Is How the NRA Ends“:
… As New York Times columnist Tom Edsall has pointed out, political science research shows that politicians consistently overestimate the conservatism of their constituents. But in this case, there was something more debilitating at work. The political class often lets old assumptions blind it to shifting realities. And the absolute power of the NRA is one of the oldest and least-tested assumptions in Washington…
And yet for some time now, the NRA’s power has been more a matter of entrenched wisdom than actual fact. Gun ownership is declining—from half of households in the 1970s to a third today. A slew of senators and governors have won campaigns in red or purple states despite NRA F ratings, including Tim Kaine (Virginia), Kay Hagan (North Carolina), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Claire McCaskill (Missouri), and Bill Nelson (Florida), who has campaigned on gun control but has won majorities even in deeply conservative Panhandle counties. Senator Chris Murphy, a rookie Connecticut Democrat who has taken a lead on the issue since the Newtown massacre, points out that, of the 16 Senate races the NRA participated in last year, 13 of its candidates lost. “The NRA is just all mythology,” he says. “The NRA does not win elections anymore.”
The reason for the gap between perception and reality is that, for many years, the NRA has had no real opposition. This has given the debate a strange quality: For gun-control advocates, the recent challenge has been less about persuading politicians on policy grounds and more about trying to convince them that the conventional wisdom about gun politics is wrong.
And then came Newtown. We are so resigned to seeing mass shootings come and go without any attempt to fix gun laws, but after Adam Lanza killed 20 children and six adults at Sandy Hook, something really did change. At long last and against all expectations, a viable movement for gun regulation is emerging. It is a development that not only bodes ill for the gun lobby and its Republican patrons, but will also complicate matters for elements of the Democratic Party who have been content to accede to the status quo. The narrow defeat of the background-check bill, it turns out, was not the end of hopes for gun reform, but the beginning….
What Bloomberg has embarked upon now is nothing less than the construction of a mirror image to the NRA…he plans to spend very heavily against the Democrats up for reelection who voted against the bill—Alaska’s Mark Begich and Arkansas’s Mark Pryor…
Does our battered republic actually need “a mirror image to the NRA”? Well, now that he’s given up on further improving the civic health of NYC, Mayor Mike has a billion greenback reasons looking for a new crusade. And if this article is any indication, gun safety may even become a proxy for taking “the center” back from the GOP oligarchs and their media enablers… but as in any war, there are liable to be some collateral (Democratic) casualties along the way.
Gin & Tonic
That’s Emperor Bloomberg, please. Get the title right.
SatanicPanic
If Democrats are in danger of losing because they oppose gun control, maybe they should join the majority of the Democratic Party in supporting it. Not that hard of a calculus.
NickT
Well, The Neu(tered) Republic(an) has been wrong about pretty much everything as long as I can remember noticing its existence, so I am not going to get too too hopeful.
pokeyblow
Network news should read each day’s gun-accident stories during their broadcasts.
Give that dailykos guy who puts together the “gunfail” report 90 seconds.
Corner Stone
For House D’s there are spots where there just isn’t much choice.
Not so sure about Senate D’s and how they have to vote, overall.
Mnemosyne
I got a fundraising letter from Gabby Giffords’ anti-gun PAC today. I should probably write them a check in honor of this story.
trollhattan
Last edition of Maher’s show had sippy Cupp flailing about and claiming that background checks and waiting lists infringed on the [holy] amendment the second because…guilt was presumed over the gun-buyer’s clear innocence. How was she supposed to protect herself iffn’ she had to WAIT for her fucking gun?
Maher, as he often annoyingly does, didn’t challenge her (“Home invasions! I have a gun on each floor of my house.”) but any, and I mean anybody with a correctly firing brain saw through the entire charade. This stuff is tissue thin and this mortal fear of the NRA needs to be kicked to the curb once and for all.
The prophet Nostradumbass
@trollhattan: the Simpsons on background checks:
Clerk: [Homer grabs for his gun, but the cashier holds onto it] Sorry, the law requires a five-day waiting period. We’ve got to run a background check.
Homer: Five days? But I’m mad now!
[the cashier pulls the gun away from him]
Homer: I’d kill you if I had my gun.
Clerk: Yeah, well, you don’t.
trollhattan
@trollhattan:
Forgot to mention her (sippy Cupp’s) other unchallenged whopper was that mass shootings are down and she knows because she’s “studied this issue for the last ten years!”
Do go on….
PeakVT
he plans to spend very heavily against the Democrats up for reelection who voted against the bill—Alaska’s Mark Begich and Arkansas’s Mark Pryor
Gawd that’s fucking moronic. I’m all for primarying wayward Dems, but only when it doesn’t put party control of a chamber at risk. As of now the 2014 Senate map is not favorable, and the main strength of Pryor and Begich is incumbency. Czar Mike should focus the House, since there’s not much chance of retaking it, but there are still a number of Dem Reps who are to their right of the constituencies.
muddy
@trollhattan: Down from what? I know she is not very old, but there didn’t used to be mass shootings on a regular basis decades ago.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Maher? I’m kind of surprised, not least because I suspect he lives in a neighborhood where a stray leaf draws security. Maher’s show is Maher’s show, obviously, but his lazy insistence on having conservatives he’s too lazy to challenge weakens it, since they all went to the Ann Coulter Keep Talking No Matter What school of debate.
I don’t know Arkansas, so FWIW: but my hunch is that Pryor’s pretty safe; from the fact that he comes from a political family, and the almost total lack of a media presence (for which I am grateful) I’m guessing he does a lot of local, constituent service. All of that barely informed guessing. And I’d be surprised if the East Coast (ahem) billionaire spending money against him is actually going to hurt him with the Bubbas. And if The Bubba decides to throw his weight around, just because he wants to show he can and maybe to try to make Arkansas competitive for Hillary. Assuming….
And Bloomberg doesn’t give a fuck about keeping a Dem Senate. Scott Brown was his favored candidate in 2012, he endorsed Bush in ’04, Lieberman in ’06 and IIRC Giuliani in the ’08 primary.
Violet
@PeakVT: He doesn’t need to actually spend the money. He can threaten to spend it and scare them a bit.
The prophet Nostradumbass
@muddy: she is, of course, incorrect.
NonyNony
I’m not sure how it could be a mirror image to the NRA. What industry will Bloomberg’s anti-gun group be secretly backing as they pretend to be the voice of anti-gun advocacy?
But yes we apparently need it. Because in this country, as any pundit can tell you, if you have one group on the right arguing for something and another group on the left arguing something else the right answer is in the exact middle of them. So if the group on the left is arguing for a real background check regimen and some technology put in place to make it easier to track ammo used in a crime, and the group on the right is arguing for anything goes open carry no restrictions on anything, the “right answer” is never going to be good for folks who actually just want to have real background checks and taggants. You need a group out there demanding that only single shot guns be sold and that anyone wanting to own a gun must pass a strict safety test and another strict shooting test before being issued a license just to get the “reasonable centrist” position considered as “serious”.
And hell if Bloomberg does something good with his money and influence then more power to him – it’ll keep him from trying to prevent people from buying 2 liters of soda or something and that’s for the best.
Suffern ACE
@PeakVT: Yeah. I do feel that we’re kind of letting Bloomberg take control of who gets to run for the senate in our party. Why not hand the kingmaker power to Rove or Koch or Adelson or some other longtime party loyalist like that?
PeakVT
@Violet: I hope he takes your advice.
NickT
I’ll give Bill Maher some props for nailing Little Ms I Am Not A Witch, but when I think of his utter stupidity on vaccines I am inclined to put that into the blind pigs and acorns category. How anyone can lose a debate to the cognitive and ethical void that is SE Cupp, heaven only knows.
Turgidson
@The prophet Nostradumbass: that whole episode was gold, except that it portrayed the NRA as semi-sane.
Hill Dweller
@NickT: Maher is shockingly ignorant once the panel strays from the agreed upon topics. I quit watching his show a couple of years ago.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@The prophet Nostradumbass: @Turgidson: Patty and Selma on the tandem, Flanders going back and forth in front of him to Tom Petty. One of their greatest bits ever.
Chris
I have never comprehended the gun fetishism that powers the NRA. Even obscenities like racism, sexism or homophobia, my brain finds easier to process than people’s crazed willingness to cling to such a ridiculous penis compensator to the point that it overrules all other considerations at the ballot box. NRA single issue voters are about as close to clinically insane as I’m willing to label anyone on account of their politics.
So I guess I’m glad to hear that a lot of their clout is a thing of the past, and can only hope that the political system catches up with that. Soon.
Brandon
So a life long billionaire Republican plans to run ads against Democratic Senators up for re-election in red states? hmmmm…….
NickT
@Hill Dweller:
I can’t remember who it was, but there was a wonderful moment when one of his guests said that Maher’s attitude on vaccines was that of a witch-doctor – and Maher looked as if the roof had fallen in on him.
ranchandsyrup
Just watched the Vice episode with the segment on active shooter training in private schools. They get the 4 Rs there. Readin, writin, rithmatic and Rambo.
NonyNony
@trollhattan:
Why would Maher challenge her when he mostly agrees with her? He’s for unrestricted ownership of guns, he just thinks that there’s no non-insane reason to not have a Federal registry showing who owns which guns. Because he seems to actually believe that he needs a gun to protect himself from the criminals and crazy people who own guns and not really for any other reason. Which means he doesn’t feel threatened that the Federales are going to use the gun registry as a checklist for who to round up for the FEMA camps once the ZOG reveal themselves as the secret masters of the Federal Government to the world at large and start hunting down loyal patriots.
(Beverly Hills, California, where I understand Maher lives, must be some kind of hellish apocalyptic wasteland if he honestly believes he needs a gun though. I mean, I live in the heart of gun nut country and the only time I’m ever afraid of getting shot is when some goober is waving his piece around like it’s a toy showing it off to his buddies. Not something that makes me feel the need to own my own weapon – more something that makes me wish my old hunter’s safety instructor were around to yell at the yahoos about what the first rule of gun safety is supposed to be…)
Narcissus
@pokeyblow: I’ve long thought someone could make some money with a smart-phone app that kept track of gun-violence and gave you semi-regular reports, and maybe an alert when gun violence occurred within so many miles of you.
If I knew how to program I’d be rich.
pokeyblow
@Narcissus: You are so right. I think a lot of people would tune in for that report.
patroclus
I don’t think Bloomberg spending some money for political purposes is all that “mean” – personally, I think it’s meaner to send someone ricin-laced letters. But, you know, I don’t write for TNR like Stephen Glass did.
NickT
@Narcissus:
I thought the same thing about a mobile app showing the current condition of bridges on a person’s route. I think I’ll see if I can code something up over the next week or so.
NickT
@patroclus:
People living in former Glass houses….
Violet
@Narcissus: Anyone who makes that app needs to be prepared for crazy people wanting to shoot them. Gun nuts would see it as some kind of threat to their freedumb.
SatanicPanic
@Violet: Except for the ones who would want to know “where the action is”
lol
@Brandon:
yeah, it’s weird. It’s almost as if the point of the group is to get more big business friendly Republicans in the Senate instead of more pro-gun control Senators.
TaMara (BHF)
@Mnemosyne: I just saw your post from an earlier thread. I’m still laughing.
Puppies! | What’s 4 Dinner
karen
I get annoyed with “Real Time” but I do like VICE. They deal with topics that are not on TV news and it reminds me of how journalism used to be.
? Martin
New gun laws just passed by the CA senate:
SB 47 by Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco: bans so-called “bullet buttons” used to get around existing laws banning detachable magazines
SB 53 by Sen. Kevin de León, D-Los Angeles: creates new state permits that require background checks for buyers of ammunition
SB 374 by Sen. Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento: bans detachable magazines in rifles
SB 396 by Sen. Loni Hancock, D-Berkeley: prohibits possession of magazines that hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition
SB 567 by Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson, D-Santa Barbara: changes the definition of certain kinds of shotguns to make them assault weapons
SB 683 by Sen. Marty Block, D-San Diego: requires all gun buyers to take a firearm safety class and earn a safety certificate
SB 755 by Sen. Lois Wolk, D-Davis: increases the number of crimes – including drug addiction, chronic alcoholism and others – that result in a 10-year ban on being allowed to own a gun
Oh, and the CA Senate voted to revoke the Boy Scout’s non-profit status because they still ban gays from leadership positions.
These all head over to the ⅔ Dem controlled Assembly and then off to our Democratic governor, who can be pretty erratic at what he signs.
Chris
@NonyNony:
It fascinates me how many endless layers of crazy there are, and no matter how ridiculous one position may be (“my guns will protect me from the criminals that infest Beverly Hills! I could totally take an entire roomful of Crips and Bloods and become a hero of the community!”) you can push one layer farther on and discover one that’s even crazier but still accepted by many (“the real threat isn’t the Crips and Bloods, it’s the black helicopters of the UN and the federal government! Which I could also totally take on with my trusty shotgun and win!”)
Same thing in other areas. Go to the right of Fox News, you’ll find “grassroots” blogs and media outlets who think it’s gone soft and liberal and needs to be replaced by something “really” conservative. Go to the right of Christian fundamentalism, you’ll find Christian Identity, the unreconstructed racialists who don’t even try to pretend they’re anything other than neo-Nazis. Etc, etc, etc. There really is no such thing as Peak Wingnut.
Roger Moore
@Chris:
Beverley Hills is infested with criminals. It’s just that they’re mostly of the white collar, steal from the rubes type, not gun toting gangsters.
The prophet Nostradumbass
@? Martin: I have the feeling ol’ Jerry will sign those ones.
daveNYC
@? Martin:
“SB 755 by Sen. Lois Wolk, D-Davis: increases the number of crimes – including drug addiction, chronic alcoholism and others – that result in a 10-year ban on being allowed to own a gun”
Woah, chronic alcoholism is a crime? Not that I think alcoholics are the best people to own firearms, but how the hell are they going to enforce that one?
John S.
@daveNYC:
Easy. Have you been convicted on drug charges? Have you had multiple DUIs? Have you been arrested for public intoxication or disorderly conduct and spent a lot of time in the tank? Then no gun for you (for 10 years).
There are a number of drug and alcohol related activities that rise to the level of being a crime. Any criminal background check will clearly show the pattern of activity.
debbie
It’s nice to wake up to this good news. The way it’s been reported in the media, one would have thought unregulated gun ownership had increased by a bazillion percent.
MosesZD
Does our battered republic actually need “a mirror image to the NRA”?
Yes, and in many more areas. The reasons ‘conservatives’ win so often is because they play power-politics. This attracts a certain voter who, simply put, falls-in-line because they naturally subordinate themselves to power displays.
And you don’t need to be a dick. Just stop bending over and being ‘nice’ and leaving the assholes on the right an uncontested playing field.
cleek
“the mirror image of the NRA” sounds like “the mirror image of the church”. which, since guns are quasi-religious to many, it is.
but the problem here is that atheists don’t organize around atheism.
rdale
In Utah it might end like this:
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/56381575-78/aposhian-arrest-attorney-concealed.html.csp
Clark Aposhian is the head of the Utah Shooting Sports Council, has a bumper sticker that says “I AM THE GUN LOBBY,” is the go-to-guy for any quote about why guns are the bestest thing evah, teaches CCW classes, and is basically the face of the pro-gun freaks in Utah (and there are lots and lots of them). The other day he drove his deuce-and-a-half army truck to his ex-wife’s house, threatened to run over her cars with it and to “bury” her new husband, and screamed threats when the police showed up. If he’s charged with domestic violence he could lose his arsenal, his CCW business, and his lobbying gig. The gun freaks who are all saying “don’t jump to conclusions, innocent until proven guilty!” are the same ones who heard one sneering innuendo on Fox about BBEENNGGHHAAZZII!!! and started screaming “IMPEACH!”
Jebediah
Speaking of responsible gun owners, saw this about a responsible, law-abiding gun owner accidentally leaving a loaded weapon behind on a Disney ride…