Kim Jong Un and South Korea’s President Moon Jae-In met today on the North Korean side of Panmunjom, in the DMZ. Their last meeting was on the South Korean side.
It’s clear that they want to work out something, even if the American president is playing junior high hard-to-get. They do have to get the adolescent to the table, though. The United States has troops in South Korea and probably would have to be a party to a peace treaty. The American officials planning the summit are heading to Singapore.
It’s not all bad that the two Koreas’ leaders are taking the initiative and maintaining momentum while Trump sulks in his room and tweets lies, which seem to be worse this morning than usual. He is blaming the Democrats for ICE’s separating mothers from their children at the border under his administration’s orders. Last night he did tweet that the Korean summit might take place after all. Tune in to the next episode!
It looks like Kim Jong Un genuinely wants some sort of negotiations. He probably feels that his nuclear arsenal is at an appropriate stage to deter an American attack, and now he wants to begin improving North Korea’s economy. But Trump and company are going to have to shut up about “Libya solutions” and the nuclear threats. Or maybe North and South Korea can come up with an agreement they can present to him to sign.
In another development, Siegfried Hecker and his associates at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) have posted an enormous database of everything all the parties to the North Korean situation have ever done – nuclear weapons development, diplomacy – with a graphical indicator of whether the developments were more peaceful or warlike. Sig presented a preview when he was here in January, and I’ve been looking for it eagerly. Here’s his summary:
The color chart and written narrative chronicle the year-by-year evolution of the key political, diplomatic and technical developments. The analysis illuminates how critical decisions affected the direction of the nuclear program. pic.twitter.com/CO8NhJbq1x
— Siegfried Hecker (@SiegfriedHecker) May 26, 2018
2) US diplomacy since 2000 has been sporadic, reactive, and often motivated by a desire to avoid risk instead of manage risk. North Korea's nuclear program has been slowed, sometimes reversed, during periods of diplomacy but it has never been abandoned.
— Siegfried Hecker (@SiegfriedHecker) May 26, 2018
4) The narrative that North Korea has cheated on every agreement is neither accurate nor useful. We need to better understand the history of North Korea's nuclear program so as to not repeat mistakes.
— Siegfried Hecker (@SiegfriedHecker) May 26, 2018
5) As bad as it was in 2017, the situation could get worse. The US has missed several opportunities in the past by not managing the incremental risks. The US must approach any denuclearization talks with an awareness of this history and a desire to manage the incremental risks.
— Siegfried Hecker (@SiegfriedHecker) May 26, 2018
I’ve got people working in the yard, so I’ll be back and forth today.
Major Major Major Major
Thanks Cheryl, looking forward to reading this thread.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Major Major Major Major:
Are you on the desktop site, or is the mobile version now remembering nyms again?
I am eager to see if my own is remembered after I post this.
ETA: Yeah, no. Blanksville.
M4
@Steeplejack (phone): twas the desktop. ?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I don’t feel like I can say what “should” be happening in Korea, but there than that, yeah. As Adam said yesterday, the US has been sidelined. I feel like Xi is driving the train, and trump will sign anything as long as there’s a photo-op with a fancy backdrop and he can tweet about doing something Obama couldn’t.
Brachiator
This story is moving fast.
But some observers noted that the recent statement from North Korea blasting Pence and Bolton omitted Trump, and Kim kept doing things and making statements to indicate that he still wanted a meeting.
I still don’t know whether China approves or disapproves of North Korea’s reaching out.
But a question. Trump needs to insist that he is the author of all things. That any summit and any result is because he is America’s Dear Leader.
How is he going to make it look like a new summit is his idea? And what is this dumb ass administration willing to agree to?
Also, I still don’t understand Kim. He cannot really improve his country’s economy and be an iron fisted tyrant.
debbie
It isn’t just “Libya solutions,” it’s “Libya solutions” and “decimation.” Has there ever been a time when this kind of language leads to better diplomacy?
Steeplejack (phone)
@Brachiator:
Somebody said (maybe here?) that Kim envisions sweatshop factories for outside companies that would put North Koreans to work at least doing something. (And of course he could skim off the top and probably steal as much technology as possible.)
Cheryl Rofer
@Brachiator:
Kim has had two meetings with Xi Jinpeng recently. He’s not going to go seriously against what Xi wants.
In the responses to his tweet, his supporters are cheering that his back and forth is “the art of the deal” and is winning by making liberals cry. As to the second, we won’t know until he emerges from the room with Kim Jong Un. Fortunately, US interests are fairly close to South Korean interests, and Moon is looking out for those.
China has done pretty well improving the economy while remaining iron-fisted. Kim sees that as his model.
Roger Moore
How much sway would Trump really have if the two Koreas really wanted to reach a deal? I don’t see that he would be in a strong position to object if they agreed to a peace deal that required the US to vacate the peninsula. After all, Trump is the one who’s been saying he wants to pull our troops out of the area if South Korea doesn’t start treating us better. If South Korea were to say, “Yeah, you’re right. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out,” Trump would be in a very weak position to demand that our military stay. He might be able to argue a bit about timetables, but it’s hard to see how he could seriously object to an agreement that gives him something he’s repeatedly said he wants.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
I’m assume the chart provides insight to a lot of people, but I’m not very visual. So I’m thankful for the take aways.
Suzanne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The fact that they had already designed a tacky commemorative coin but didn’t have, you know, the details of the summit even under consideration is yet another point of evidence that this jackass is all for show.
Yutsano
@Steeplejack (phone): He already has some up on the border. It’s entirely possible the cheap good you thought was from China could have been made in North Korea. But they would be one of the cheapest labor sources in the world. And yes Kim could get even more wealthy than his father or grandfather.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
my first thought when I read Steeplejack’s post was about the stories Alexas (or whatever) that are recording conversations and exporting info to people’s contacts on their own. Of course, China– or the Russian mob, or whoever wherever– wouldn’t necessarily need North Korea for that, would they?
Another Scott
Excellent – thanks Cheryl.
Sig’s #5 is right on.
As I hinted earlier, I’m not at all surprised that Donnie still wants his meeting. We know that this is his mind-games negotiating style – trying to keep the other party off-balance. And Kim, Xi, Donald Tusk, and everyone else around the world that has to deal with him knows it, also too.
Maybe the meeting will go ahead, maybe it won’t. We’ve probably got at least another 2 weeks of Donnie-manufactured drama over it before we’ll know for sure. (groucho-roll-eyes.gif)
Here’s hoping that Kim and Moon keep talking either way.
Cheers,
Scott.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
Trump will just declare victory and take all the credit.
Ked
So has anyone had any success yet getting their adblock to stop the STUPID FUCKING VIDEO E!-type autoplay in the righthand column on this site?
Maybe I need to change tools.
Brachiator
@Steeplejack (phone):
This doesn’t really improve the economy. There is not much infrastructure in place, and what could North Korea produce that anyone wants?
Their situation is much worse than that of East Germany.
This goes without saying. But still would do nothing for the larger economy.
M4
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: given that Moon has done most of the work here I imagine he’s rather important to the train…
Brachiator
@Ked:
I switched to the Brave Android browser. Seems to work (most of the time).
Another Scott
@Brachiator: Kim has been liberalizing the economy, at least to some extent. I’m sure he’s been working on various scenarios for improving the country with and without any agreements with the US. He’ll keep pushing ahead no matter what Donnie does.
Having a credible nuclear deterrent gives him a lot more external political options now.
Cheers,
Scott.
father pusbucket
Perhaps, too, the test site collapse has so inflated the cost of further development that he decided to pretend this was his plan all along.
Another Scott
@Ked: uBlock Origin (on Chrome on a desktop) works very well for me. Dunno what people do for mobile (AFAIK, Chrome on mobile still doesn’t allow ad-blocking). I only rarely look at B-J on my phone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Brachiator
@Another Scott:
Trump doesn’t seem to have a rational negotiating style when he has to deal with actual substantive issues.
And in the past, diplomats, experts, and specialists would do the background work. I have no idea what Trump is doing. Then again, neither does Trump.
Yep. Leaders are trying to find ways to get around Trump while keeping him happy.
Cheryl Rofer
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): What Sig and his associates have done is extremely detailed and down in the weeds. It’s not for everyone, but for those who want that extremely detailed history of North Korean interactions, it’s amazing. The colors help to highlight more dangerous and less dangerous times, to help focus through all those details.
? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?
@Cheryl Rofer:
That’s… really pathetic. All these stupid fucks care about is upsetting their enemies, not whether policy being implemented is going to make the world a better place. Whenever I try to engage these people they almost never reply back, like their God-Emperor. Where the hell did these people come from. Who are they? Perhaps I haven’t been paying attention but I feel like they all just appeared 3 years ago.
Yeah, but they’re economy is starting to slow down and the Party is corrupt at the highest echelons. I don’t see the PRC doing so well a few decades from now if they don’t do further reforms
Brachiator
@Brachiator:
Note that this is a mobile browser. U Block Origin, as noted, works on the desktop.
Ked
i’ve been hearing about people moving to uBlock for a while. I guess I’ll give that a try.
BJ is one one the very few places I’ve excluded over the years, but will not tolerate autoplay video. And frankly it’s messing with page load completions, the browser doesn’t think it’s ever finished and that makes the reload button somewhat broken. Fix this crap.
Cheryl Rofer
@father pusbucket: There’s no evidence that the test site was irretrievably damaged. That was the wild extrapolation of a reporter (or reporters) who didn’t understand geology from a rather routine Chinese scientific paper. Kim is satisfied with his deterrent.
Roger Moore
@Ked:
I’ve been using Privacy Badger, and it seems to block that ad just fine.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cheryl Rofer: I think it was Wendy Sherman who suggested there might well be other test sites. I was wondering what you thought of that?
and it’s great having someone with relevant expertise posting here on this stuff– Thanks
drylake
The kaesong Industrial Park, just over the border with SK, has been open for over a decade (subject to disorder in times of political stress), but has employed up to 50000 workers (paid to the NK govt, of course). It could easily become another Shenzhen, which, pace Brachiator, has done a good deal for the Chinese economy.
Cheryl Rofer
@? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:
My theory is that they are your friends, neighbors, and relatives. They may have been unhappy with Obama, somewhat racist, and damaged by the economy, but Trump’s demagogy gave them permission 1) to follow the Great Leader unthinkingly and 2) to hate his enemies as their own.
I also think that if we can remove Trump in a way that has broad-based support, they’ll go back to their quiet dissatisfaction. Some might even learn from their temporary insanity.
Cheryl Rofer
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t think there are other test sites. But it wouldn’t cost a lot to start another up. I really think that Kim feels he has his deterrent, and I think he’s right. I posted this here, too, a few weeks back, but it’s easier to find at Nuclear Diner.
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer:
On a BBC interview, the American reporter present (somebody surname Tracy?) noted that there were no weapons experts present to verify anything. When he asked a government official, the response was “we don’t have to have anyone verify this. We know what we are doing. Trust us.”
Ked
uBlock does successfully catch it. I guess Connatix bribed AdBlock Plus.
There is a video frame that still loads, but it’s just black and doesn’t seem to play anything. And the page finishes correctly, which lets me mash reload as needed. *sigh* I should have known it would come to this when I read about ABP’s extortion racket.
The Ancient Randonneur
@Brachiator: Yep. I’ve been using Brave for about a month and I love it. Easily my favorite Android browser.
Another Scott
@Ked: The ads here seem to be served by (or via) WordPress. There’s little, to nothing, that Alain and Cole can do about it.
I don’t feel bad about blocking ads here. I send Cole money a few times a year (via the PayPal link above) and I’m sure that that more than compensates for the few pennies a day he might get from the ads I’m blocking.
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady):
I wouldn’t put it past him, but I suspect that John Bolton is going to be pissed to be left out of the loop. I took yesterday’s news to mean that what seemed like a strategy of Bolton and Pence to insult NK sufficiently to trigger NK to withdraw from talks got waylaid by Trump’s ego (no way he will let someone stiff him first). Now, the other parties are just talking to themselves and Bolton is going to be hard pressed to keep playing war games in his public statements, no matter what the two agree to. How can we disagree publicly with whatever SK accepts? Except, now, we have no direct way to influence what happens unless we ask to participate, which makes us look small.
I mean, the basic problem here is that Trump’s blather about other countries being moochers seems to entirely disregard the fact that the U.S. has strategic interests in the region as well. He defines “interest” solely in terms of the money being spent, not whether we are getting value for our commitment.
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer:
Entirely different model. The Chinese had a model of entrepreneurship for eons. This was suppressed by the Communists, but was still present.
They also leveraged the business smarts of Hong Kong.
Ruckus
Does anyone think anyone in this administration is/will be remotely capable of this or have any desire in the least to even lean this way?
Cheryl Rofer
What I think is particularly interesting here is that my (and others’) instant reaction to Trump’s canceling the summit was “Look for the North Korean missile launch.” But instead, Kim and Moon met again. That’s a fundamental difference in North Korean behavior. They want the summit.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
I use firefox with a private tab on Android. Blocks all adds, which makes the site readable at all.
I’ve used Safari (current) with adblock + Firefox with adblock + and Chrome on the mac.
Chrome is useless on mac. Firefox was my go to till 2 upgrades ago when they completely fucked it up so now it’s Safari and that works OK. No ads on any site but you have to set up adblock + properly to arrive at that.
Steeplejack
@Ked:
If you’re talking about the Connatix ad (you can right-click on it to get the name), here’s what I did (desktop version of this site, Firefox with Adblock Plus on Win10):
1. Open Adblock Plus, either from the icon on the top toolbar or via (in Firefox) Tools | Add-Ons | Extensions.
2. Click Options, then Advanced.
3. Toward the bottom of the page that comes up, you want to edit your filter list.
4. Add this line to the bottom of your filter list:
5. Save your filter list and back out of Adblock Plus. You should be good to go.
If you use a different browser and/or ad blocker, you can adapt this procedure. The key thing is to get the edit line into your filter list (or whatever your browser calls it).
James Powell
@Cheryl Rofer:
If Kim and Moon work anything out, the press/media will give Trump credit for it because that’s how they handle every story about every development everywhere in the world.
Steeplejack
@Brachiator:
What do any of the lower-tier Third World countries produce that anyone wants? Answer: the consumer goods that multinational corporations build and equip factories for in those countries to take advantage of dirt-cheap labor. At some point a few decades ago, you could have asked what does China produce that anyone wants? Now they produce everything. And, yes, their starting position was much better than North Korea’s, but a big selling point was cheap labor (and no pesky environmental laws).
Why assume that Kim cares about the “larger economy,” except to enrich his regime and keep the peasants in line?
Ruckus
@Barbara:
He’s going to be far more pissed that he may not be able to get his war on. His total outlook is that we need to be at war. I’m not sure he cares about where or with whom but being at war against, something, is his only position.
M4
@Steeplejack: also North Korea has vast mineral resources
Steeplejack
@M4:
All right! Dirty factories and strip-mining! Let’s go, NoKo.
Ruckus
@Steeplejack:
The real point here.
Kim lives pretty good I’d bet, and being who he is I’d bet that you are 100% correct, that as long as the peasants keep doing what he wants, when and where he wants, he doesn’t give two shits about them. Kim is the leader of an entire country, which is more than drumpf can say, even if Kim has to use force to get what he wants. drumpf would try that too, if he thought about it, but he’s too busy “knowing” about his greatness to use logic in any way, shape or form.
debbie
@Steeplejack:
Thank you for this magic! I have no right click on my Mac laptop. I could get it to stop playing only on a one-time basis, which is highly annoying.
Brachiator
@Steeplejack:
Again, China had previously suppressed a long tradition of doing business. There was a huge underground economy throughout the communist era.
They were able to unleash the great wealth of Hong Kong, and also the great undisclosed wealth of mainland oligarchs. What happened in China was much more than tapping into cheap labor.
North Korea may have much farther to go.
Another Scott
@Brachiator: Thanks for the pointer. It looks interesting. Dunno how I feel about the Brave Payments stuff, but I agree with them that people need to support the sites they visit frequently.
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@debbie:
So are you saying you successfully blocked it?
Another Scott
OT: testing from Brave on Android. Will it remember my login?
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@Brachiator:
Jesus, I’m not saying North Korea is China. If that example doesn’t work for you, insert Bangladesh or some other dismal country that now makes our T-shirts and underwear.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: Nope.
Oh well.
Well, it actually does remember it in a drop-down box, but doesn’t keep it filled in…
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@Another Scott:
Let us know, but I don’t think it will. The “blank nym” problem seems to apply to the mobile site across all browsers.
ETA: The person above was recommending Brave for its ad-blocking properties.
Brachiator
@Another Scott:
Interesting article on the North Korea economy. This comparison is useful
Does Kim want to improve his country’s economy?
Does he want to integrate with the South?
Does he entertain delusions of taking over the South?
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
Using a private tab on the phone, often the boxes are empty. But the info is there, I just have to click on the box and select it. A pain but I don’t have to retype. Also if I just minimize and don’t leave the site, the boxes remain filled. If I close FF or leave BJ then I have to click to fill.
debbie
@Steeplejack:
Yes, there is nothing there at all now. I know how to add to the filter, I just wasn’t able to get the address.
Brachiator
@Steeplejack:
You keep wanting to invoke stereotypes of “dismal countries” and cheap labor.
The question is whether Kim is smart enough to unleash his country’s economic potential and still retain power. North Korea is kept down primarily by it’s stupid government. The link provided by Another Scott suggests that Kim knows this and has been trying to liberlize the economy.
ETA. Thanks for your comments about ad block, etc. Will use this for my desktop later.
gene108
@Cheryl Rofer:
When China was implementing its economic reforms in the 1980’s, they wanted North Korea to follow a similar model.
China, I think, would approve of N Korea being China-like and more self-sufficient.
Another Scott
@Ruckus: I used to use Firefox as my primary browser, mainly because I loved TabMix Plus. But I eventually started using Chrome and didn’t look back (at least not too often). But I still miss TMP – I hate that Chrome (and Thunderbird) don’t support multiple rows of tabs. Having 1/4″ wide or smaller tabs is almost useless. Grrr…
I see that the TMP author is trying to create a new version (TM WebExtension) but it’s not ready yet. And I don’t know if he still has no interest on porting it to Chrome.
Chrome and uBlock Origin works fine for me on my MBP – I’m using it now (on High Sierra). (Except for the microscopic tab width issue when dozens of tabs are present, as above.) But everyone has different usage patterns, etc.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
All guesses lean towards YES.
I think he might just believe this is the best way to improve his country, at a cost to him of almost nothing. I don’t think he might realize that the citizens of SK might rather fight than become incredibly poor. But while he is politically still in the dark ages, he’s not a moron. He might just see that getting his half the country to be only 7 times poorer is a lot better than what he has now. He might also be looking at that East/West German model and thinking that might just work. His “parent” countries seem to be taking a somewhat hands off approach and maybe just getting tired of the hassle. That would leave him basically hung out to dry, not a good position in a world where long distance trade has made a huge difference in living quality, if not necessarily in a better world, environmentally.
James Powell
@Brachiator:
Has anyone ever done this? That’s what Gorbachev was trying to do.
Ruckus
@Another Scott:
If I needed the tabs to be wider, I’d just open another window. But my usage these days is minimal and I don’t care all that much. If I was working on my computer, rather than using it as an entertainment/minimal communications center, I might be where you are, tab wise. I’ve been using adblock plus for a long time, in computer years anyway, and it works. The last iteration has a non-intusive ad section, which allows ads that don’t have sound or video. But you can turn this off as well.
When I go some place with a TV playing I always am shocked that we actually allow 25% of our time to be ads for crap we don’t need. I don’t need this on my computer either. OTHO it does give me a list of things not to think about buying/using. Like a verbal controller for the lights in the house. We still do have those wall thingies don’t we?
Old fart rant over.
Suffragettecity
Bolton and his super duper shadow cabinet will tear that chart into shreds. Then point out how bombing Iran will cure all ills.
RepubAnon
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I expect that Kim sees a golden opportunity to do a separate deal with South Korea. South Korea could then tell the US to reduce the number of troops and bases… This makes Trump and the US look unreliable, strengthening China’s position. Trump takes credit, so he’s happy as well.
M4
@RepubAnon: many South Koreans would also be in favor of this outcome.
RepubAnon
@James Powell: China has succeeded in moving from communism to fascism by maintaining tight one-party rule while very slowly relaxing some state ownership requirements.
Ruckus
@James Powell:
I’d bet that Kim is more than smart enough to know the history of Russia. He may be a dictator but as I said above he’s not a moron. He understands the world, he just doesn’t seem to agree with it concerning power structures. But he is not so rigid that he can’t see that the most prosperous countries have something that his doesn’t. A level of freedom far beyond what his has. And this includes Russia and China. Both of those have been evolving. But look at the differences between them, Russia has a for all intents a dictator and it is not doing as well as China, economy wise. In the very late 80s my friends family went back to China, because dad was ill and wanted to die/be buried in his home country. At the end of two weeks the family was packing and so was dad. Asked why he said, this place is still fucked, and no different than it was decades before, when he left. In the US all his kids got a college education, are professionals, he owned his home, in China his relatives were still living in huts with dirt floors. And he worked in a laundry and his wife as a seamstress. Look at China 30 yrs later. He’d never recognize it.
Brachiator
@Ruckus:
It might cost him everything.
For example, while I think an elite corps of the North Korean army would fight during an invasion, I think that the majority of the army would surrender or defect within days. Even though resources are redirected to the military, they are still poorly fed and equipped. They would quickly see how much more developed the South is.
It would work only if Kim dissolves his government. Scholars are still writing about the reunification of Germany, but it was painful and the East is still relatively poorer. And you have this.
Lots of possibilities complicated by the clumsiness of the Trump administration.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Brachiator:
Your original question was what does North Korea make that anyone would want. I was trying to say, perhaps with bad examples, that there are many examples of countries that don’t have any “native” products that anyone would want, but they started out, and some thrived, by making products invented elsewhere. Nobody wants a “Bangladeshi T-shirt,” but they do buy T-shirts that are made in Bangladesh.
Cheryl Rofer
@James Powell:
It’s tricky, to be sure, but China has done it.
Brachiator
@Steeplejack (phone):
I framed the question poorly. Kim is not a fool. He can see the relative economic giant that is South Korea. And thanks to the link provided by Another Scott, I see that Kim is already trying to balance the absurdly restrictive political regime with a more liberal economy.
North Korea has considerable resources and an incipient entrepreneur class. But they still suffer from severe repression and poor infrastructure.
I don’t know how much Kim is like his father and grandfather or whether he sees or wants to modernize his country.
But he potentially could tap into significant amounts of capital and resources, as well as labor.
Unless Trump screws things up.
J R in WV
@Ked:
I use AdBlock Plus. Go to Options -> Advanced and page down to the “My Filter List” and click edit.
I added these three lines one at a time experimentally:
ConnatixPlayer643
https://Connatix.com
https://cdn.connatix.com/min/connatix.renderer.infeed.min.js
I think just the last one worked, but I was adding them one at a time, so maybe it takes all three.
Also, adding those lines to other ad block filters may work OK too. My urge to experiment diminished instantly once it worked.
ALSO TOO, then click on John’s PayPal and make a donation to keep this thing going!!!
Ruckus
@Brachiator:
Wasn’t agreeing with Kim, just suggesting a way that he might view the world and his situation based upon what he’s done and the changes in the world and his region base upon us electing a complete fucking moron as president.
NobodySpecial
I keep trying to see what an agreement between the two would actually cover as far as reunification and I shake my head. Kim has ultimate power, he’s not going to let it go out of the goodness of his heart. Does he think that SK will bend the knee if he can pry America away from them? Does he think he can keep China off his back?
it’s so puzzling.
Ruckus
@NobodySpecial:
We provide a lot of the military power of SK.
Take us out of the picture and everything changes drastically. And better for NK. I believe that technically they are still one country with two national governments. The desire for reunification has gained and lost public support in the south over time and the NK participation in the winter olympics in SK has been seen as a possible thawing of resistance. OTOH who knows. The countries have grown apart in many ways, the land mass of the north is 20% more than the south but the south has twice the population and a far, far, far, far better economy. Kim would probably like to get in on some of that. Will he be willing to capitulate at all? Will the south?
Calouste
@Brachiator: One thing that Kim might also have learned, or just picked up while he was at school in Switzerland in the 90s, is that East Germany pretty much collapsed from within, and none of the East German leaders got any credit for the reunification. He’s only 35, he needs to keep this whole thing together for another 40 or 50 years, and if he doesn’t, he’s dead. But if he goes for reunification, he will still be immensely rich, and his place in the history books will be ensured
Ruckus
@Calouste:
He’s also seen what it’s like his entire life, so school in Switzerland probably opened his eyes in several ways. This is also what I meant about East/West Germany. A country split in two, with two very different governments and outcomes. The old Russian proverb “We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us” comes to mind. No matter how hard you push at some point, you reach the law of diminishing returns. You need more people to enforce the horror than there are people being enforced. And no one is being productive. Kim would be better off with unification, as you said , as long as he could keep his booty. His people, at least most of them, would think he’s the greatest for doing it, the west would approve and China and Russia would be rid of the problem they face.
J R in WV
@Calouste:
Yes, Kim knows as much about western values as anyone in NK, and the fall of the Wall and reunification all happened while he was practically a witness next door in Switzerland.
Or near enough for him to take the point of the fall of a once powerful government. I’m bad with dates and times. Close enough for this though!
And not that Kim doesn’t have as good an internet link as most of us, either. Plus good booze and such. He isn’t suffering at all. Staff.
John A Perazzo
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): There is a narrative version at https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/narrativescombinedfinv2.pdf