Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Let there be snark.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

I did not have telepathic declassification on my 2022 bingo card.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

The revolution will be supervised.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

T R E 4 5 O N

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / I crawl like a viper through these suburban streets

I crawl like a viper through these suburban streets

by | 152 Comments

This post is in: ,

This is the second or third time that I’ve heard data people I respect say Dems should be sinking more money into the Lone Star state:

The reason apparently is that despite what you might gleaned from Willie Nelson songs and Walker Texas Range, ackshually Texas is highly suburban. And suburban women, so languid and bittersweet, hate Donald Trump.

No matter what happens this November, an investment in Texas is an investment in the future, Mr. Gittes. It can easily be come the new Virginia/Colorado.

So let’s do an all Texas one today, megadonors! As always you can see all our candidates here.

MJ Hegar, Texas Senate

Goal Thermometer

Texas State Democratic Party

Goal Thermometer

Dallas County Democratic Party (TX) and Tarrant County Democratic Party (TX)

Goal Thermometer

Balloon Juice for Flipping Texas (split between GOP-held districts won by Beto)

Goal Thermometer

Reader Interactions

152Comments

  1. 1.

    zzyzx

    I knew that I knew that quote but I had to google it to find out why.

    Bard graduate so it’s law that I listen to the Dan.

  2. 2.

    Martin

    Yup. Been saying this for a while.

    Remember, the goal isn’t necessarily to win Texas, but when you have a fundraising advantage, force your opponent to bankrupt themselves by going after high-reward, high-cost markets. The GOP has the benefit of competing for fairly cheap states, but Texas is not a cheap state. It’s expensive, and if they lose it, there’s nothing that gives them a winning map.

    The point of dumping money in Texas is it denies the GOP the ability to dump money into Ohio or PA or FL. And demographically, Texas should be increasingly reachable. If you do manage to get Texas, the GOP is destroyed. They have to reinvent as they have no electoral path.

  3. 3.

    RaflW

    I don’t know how to measure Sima Ladjevardian’s chances against Dan Crenshaw, but I have a personal grudge about that district. My dad lived in TX-02 (under Ted Poe, no great shakes but less visibly self-centered than his replacement) and the gerrymander that created it is disgustingly convoluted.

    I’d love to see Sima win, or even just soften Crenshaw up. It certainly could be a district that, by narrowing the GOP margin, could help TX win some statewide things like potus (Or, semi-longshot, Hegar).

    Ladjevardian isn’t in the Beto-list above, so YMMV and make choices that work for you, but if you feel like going after an absolute ahole, Crenshaw is ripe for comeuppance (BJ link!)..

  4. 4.

    frosty

    Great title! I’ll chip in as soon as I update the bank balance and find out if I have any money.
    Spouse and I have been playing dueling ActBlue all year!

  5. 5.

    Josie

    Thanks for this, Dougj. For years, the only attention Democrats have paid in Texas is to swoop in and get money for other places. It’s about time some of that money flowed back into the state to help us right our ship.

  6. 6.

    Martin

    @RaflW: It’s a tough district. It’s R+11, but gets into play if Dems have a 10 point national advantage, so it’s possible with where we are. Sima badly outspent, which doesn’t help.

  9. 9.

    Roger Moore

    Flipping Texas would be a big Biden deal.  Even getting it close enough to make it hard for the Republicans to gerrymander again would be a big step toward revitalizing the state Democratic party.  Just getting Texas to be purple would be a huge step toward destroying the modern embodiment of the Republican party.

  10. 10.

    Martin

    @ns: I mean, there’s a LOT more money flowing into Texas than in previous years – in part because Dems are unusually flush with money right now.

    But Dems aren’t yet going after Texas as a winnable state. And it may not yet be, but it’s close.

  11. 11.

    guachi

    For the poll trackers. Percentage is the chance of a D victory:

    Economist

    Biden  29%

    Hegar  16%

     

    TX-07 (hold)   83%

    TX-32 (hold)   85%

    TX-03 (flip)    10%

    TX-06 (flip)    8%

    TX-10 (flip)    30%

    TX-21 (flip)    19%

    TX-22 (flip)    51%

    TX-23 (flip)    91%

    TX-24 (flip)    44%

    TX-25 (flip)    25%

    TX-31 (flip)    12%

     

    538

    Biden  35%

    Hegar 13%

     

    TX-07 (hold)   75%

    TX-32 (hold)   84%

    TX-03 (flip)    7%

    TX-06 (flip)    8%

    TX-10 (flip)    7%

    TX-21 (flip)    31%

    TX-22 (flip)    36%

    TX-23 (flip)    73%

    TX-24 (flip)    41%

    TX-25 (flip)    11%

    TX-31 (flip)    5%

  12. 12.

    Kent

    @Martin: No, the goal is to fucking win TX.   I mean, I understand your point.  Make them spend there.  But hell.  I actually want to win Texas.  There are no “close enough” second place points.  You either win or lose.

    But you don’t go in saying this is all for show.  We aren’t really going to win

    Biden flipping Texas in 2020 is as plausible as Trump winning PA in 2016.  More plausible.  538 had Trump at 23% chance of winning PA on the eve of the 2016 election:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

    Whereas 538 has Biden at 35% right now in Texas:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/texas/

  14. 14.

    Martin

    @Kent: Right, but Trump had to win PA to win. Biden doesn’t. We’re playing EC rules here, unfortunately.

    The most important race in TX is Hagar. Dems have to get to 50+1 in the Senate. Hagar isn’t key to that, but man, it would certainly help a lot.

  15. 15.

    Yarrow

    My favorite political commercial being shown on TV in Texas right now is one for the Texas Supreme Court. The voiceover talks about Chief Justice Hecht’s values (“lifetime of public service,” etc.) and then says “his values are shared by his Republican colleagues on the court” and shows each of them. At the end it says “Re-elect Chief Justice Nathan Hecht and his Republican colleagues on the Texas Supreme Court.”

    If Republicans are having to spend money to defend the Republican Justices on the Texas Supreme Court they are FUCKING TERRIFIED. I have never seen anything like this commercial. It cheers me right up every time I see it.

  18. 18.

    Yarrow

    @RaflW:  Sima’s chances aren’t as good as Sri Kulkarni’s but Dan Crenshaw must be a bit scared because they are running negative ads on her all the time. If Republicans have to spend money defend Crenshaw, that’s a bad sign for them.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    Juanita Jean:

    […]

    I’ve been watching fundraising for many years and what I’m fixing to tell you is the truth. Republicans don’t donate. They don’t. They know their candidates get rich people money or corporate money so their $25 contribution might seem pathetic. So, they don’t donate. I’m not jacking with you. Your Republican neighbor with the Trump yard sign more likely than not has never donated a damn dime to a candidate.

    We Democrats think our $25 is big stuff when it’s combined with your $25 and Mary’s $25. Let me tell you a true story about my friend Judy. At the beginning of the election season, Judy sets aside $500. That’s what she can afford to spend. But instead of giving it to one candidate, she doles it out $25 at a time, maybe even $10. When some Republican says something that pisses her off, Judy sends their opponent $25. “It’s like getting to punch them in the mouth,” she says.

    That keeps Judy sane through the election season. She decided to work early voting because she already went through her $500 a month ago. Now, she’s got more money and more faces to punch.

    Plus, look how those small contributions coming from all over the country have Lindsey headed for the faintin’ couch. You gotta feel good about that.

    So, if you haven’t donated to Jamie Harrison yet, right now would be a real good time. And when the click the button, holler, “Hi, Lindsey!”

    Working together, and donating, is our superpower.

    “Diversity is our strength. Unity is our power.” – Speaker Pelosi.

    Thanks DougJ!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    RaflW

    @Martin: Agreed that Sima is not smart first or maybe even marginal dollar, but I’m gonna chip in to her again.

    Spending three highschool years in that g-dforsaken, hideous NW Houston sprawl has probably informed some of my desire to live walking distance to Minneapolis’s Orchestra Hall, and vacation in the far reaches of nowhere. And to want to fund the stray Dems who dare to fight it out there.

  21. 21.

    Yarrow

    @Kent:  Totally agree. The goal is to win Texas. Just win, baby. Making Republicans spend money in Texas is a benefit of it being this close but winning is the goal. Republicans know it’s close too – see my two above comments. Amazing stuff happening.

  22. 22.

    Jonas

    Really, the goal is to flip the lower house in the State Leg., which we just need 9 seats (out of 150). We do that and no gerrymander, which is decided by legislation. Which means all Congressional seats are easier to win in the future, and can be a stepping-stone to getting actual legislation passed to make voting normal, Medicaid expansion, etc.

  23. 23.

    Kent

    @Martin: I agree.  But as a former Texan I don’t like moral victories.  We are sick of those.  If you actually want to get Texans out to work on this election and voting in large numbers, you gotta think you are actually going to win, or have a chance of it.

    The biggest thing in TX is also not Hegar, it’s taking over at least pat of the Texas legislature that is going to control redistricting in 2021.    And the TX courts which uphold voter suppression.

  26. 26.

    Kirk Spencer

    @Yarrow: I’m also seeing and hearing Crenshaw ads all the time. He’s got this plan, you see, to make healthcare great while protecting against abuse of pre-existing conditions while letting you keep your own doctor. Heck, it’s just a great set of arguments for a democratic challenger ten years ago. //

     

    Btw, voted last week.

  28. 28.

    Yarrow

    @Martin:

    The most important race in TX is Hagar.

    Maybe of the races that get national attention but the real most important races, as Jonas said, are the Texas State House races. Those flip and lots of good stuff for the state can follow.

  29. 29.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @germy: I love how he says she brought up subjects inappropriately, Really!  I wish he would have to deal with the 11 hours of grilling Hillary Clinton had to go through…he’d have a stroke and keel over.

  30. 30.

    Yarrow

    @Kirk Spencer:  Did you see the one starring his wife? It ran early on. She was softening up his image, talking about how amazing he is. There was something really weird about it. It must not have worked well because they haven’t been running it in awhile. Now it’s healthcare, small business savior or negative on Sima.

  31. 31.

    Kay

    @Benw:

    It’s even worse. Trump’s polling is better than 37%.

    +/- 8% of people will vote for a person who has no sense of decency.

  33. 33.

    Kay

    Governor Mike DeWine
    @GovMikeDeWine
    · 9m
    Today we are reporting 2,425 new cases since yesterday. This is the highest number we have ever reported on a single day. Of the 10 highest days of new cases reported, eight have occurred in just the past nine days. Nine have occurred in the month of October alone.

    There’s such a sense of dread here, in this Trump county because it’s getting colder and I think the only thing that was keeping the rate down was people being outdoors. The truth it they really didn’t give a shit when it was centered on urban areas.

  34. 34.

    germy

    Just a reminder: it took an awful lot of crooked cops to create Donald Trump. NYPD gave him cover for years because he had officers on the payroll. Keith Schiller saw Trump in court and went up and ASKED for a job. He was a ‘rammer’ on BX Narco Task force. @realDonaldTrump— NoelCaslerComedy (@CaslerNoel) October 18, 2020

  35. 35.

    germy

    @EmbraceYourInnerCrone:  he’d have a stroke and keel over.

    I saw a clip from the 60 Minutes interview and he used his left hand to help his right hand lift a glass of water.

    Something’s up, and it isn’t Rudy’s willy.

  36. 36.

    Baud

    @Kay: Statistically speaking, that 8% might also be among the idiots who think Biden has no sense of decency, so it’d be a wash to them.

  37. 37.

    Chetan Murthy

    This is great!  And I thought I’d add two more:

    Annie’s List: progressive women candidates all over Texas — building that deep bench

    Texas Organizing Project: GOTV org, behind the big shift in Harris County about 10yr ago.

    And I agree: it would be a lovely, lovely thing, if Texas flipped Blue for any statewide contest.

  38. 38.

    Kent

    @germy: A lot of police unions are going all in for Trump this election.   I don’t think that sets them up well for 2021 when they need to start negotiating contracts and budgets in blue cities.

  40. 40.

    RaflW

    @Another Scott: The huge difference is that the GOP relies on maybe 100,000* max-out donors for a lot of their campaigns. Things get tough in the home stretch, they’re trying to pry dollars from people who don’t typically donate.

    We fundraise from 1,000,000 donors at 1/10th the dollar amount, there’s plenty of punch left for a final left cross at the end.

    *Dunno if that’s the right no. just saying that relatively speaking, our 10X or even deeper ratio of smaller donors has far better power — if organized!

  41. 41.

    Anonymous At Work

    Former Houston resident here: “Suburbs” in Texas start 10 minutes from downtown and go all the way to about 2 hours out, freeway speeds. Seamless transition from suburbs to exurbs, too. Some areas will still be very red but to the extent that the youngs and the immigrants and the minorities are spreading out those ways, the blue areas are getting bigger.

  42. 42.

    NCSteve

    Could I make a special plea to anyone who has a few bucks to toss to Julie Oliver in Tx-25?

    https://youtu.be/FqZcpwknUo8

    We are getting close to the point when it’s too late for money to help, but we aren’t there yet and I want to flip this seat more than any other. America needs this woman in Congress and in national politics.

  43. 43.

    Squid696

    @RaflW: I live in TX-02.  I grew up in Pasadena, so this “godforsaken, hideous NW Houston sprawl” is paradise compared to that.  Crenshaw has a lot of support in my area and has a lot of ads on TV, but Sima has been on the air a lot, too.   His ads are really disingenuous, but they are slick and not as over the top as some of the other Republican Congressional candidates.  Her ads are pretty good, but the name and the accent may scare people off, sadly.  What is truly amazing is the overall number of commercials for Democrats up and down the ballot.  We are in uncharted territory here with Democrats competing on an even playing field with Republicans.  There may even be more ads for Democtrats overall here.  Natalie Hurtado, running for a seat in the State House, has a ton of ads and I cannot remember ever seeing any ads for Democratic State Rep races here.  A Democrat running for the Railroad Commission has ads running.  I also just saw my first commercial from the Future Forward PAC for Hegar.  It was good and challenged Cornyn on Health Care directly.

  44. 44.

    Kent

    @Kay:There’s such a sense of dread here, in this Trump county because it’s getting colder and I think the only thing that was keeping the rate down was people being outdoors. The truth it they really didn’t give a shit when it was centered on urban areas.

    If the numbers keep going up, Trumps strategy of having all his voters show up on election day rather than early voting might not work too well.    How many old people are going to stand in long lines to vote if the pandemic is peaking and they think it’s a lost cause anyway?

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Kent:

    The biggest thing in TX is also not Hegar, it’s taking over at least pat of the Texas legislature that is going to control redistricting in 2021.

    Yes, THIS!  It’s why I sent almost all my political contributions thru Annie’s List (and Texas Organizing Project): maybe Hegar wins, and maybe she doesn’t.  But if we win seats in the state lege all over the place, (a) that increases the chance that Hegar and Biden win, and (b) even IF #a doesn’t come to pass, we’ll move Texas closer to being Blue.

    And the day Texas is Blue, the GrOPers are done.  Done.  Done.

  46. 46.

    germy

    A judge has released hundreds of pages of Ghislaine Maxwell’s testimony from a civil lawsuit by one of her accusers. The documents are the only substantive public record from Maxwell about what she said she did for her former boyfriend Jeffrey Epstein https://t.co/oYwnM4QdBR pic.twitter.com/oiWYQcyshc— Bloomberg (@business) October 22, 2020

    This is why people like Rudy, Dumb Jr, and John CarDILDO are going insane & melting down on Twitter today – tweeting conspiracy theories about Biden over 43 times in 3 hours https://t.co/j4CDawxBXb— JEN KIRKMAN ??‍? (@JenKirkman) October 22, 2020

  48. 48.

    Yarrow

    @Squid696:

    Natalie Hurtado, running for a seat in the State House, has a ton of ads and I cannot remember ever seeing any ads for Democratic State Rep races here.

    Yep. It’s insane. She’s not the only Dem State House candidate who is up on air with TV ads either. This is a big fucking deal. There is a lot of money going into Texas. A lot. These races are winnable.

    Republicans in Texas are SCARED. See my comment about the Texas Supreme Court further up. If you want a canary in the coal mine type of ad, that’s it. Just like the one that long time Harris County Judge Ed Emmett (Republican) was forced to run in 2016 when it became clear he might lose. And lose he did to Lina Hidalgo.

  50. 50.

    dmsilev

    One thing that gives me hope re: Texas is that mail-in/early voting turnout has been amazingballs high. Highest in the country as a fraction of the 2016 vote; right now, the tracker shows 66% turnout so far compared to the entire 2016 cycle (including Election Day). That’s going to upend some of the “likely voter” assumptions that the polling companies make.

  52. 52.

    dmsilev

    @Kent:

    If the numbers keep going up, Trumps strategy of having all his voters show up on election day rather than early voting might not work too well.    How many old people are going to stand in long lines to vote if the pandemic is peaking and they think it’s a lost cause anyway?

    I’ve been wondering about that in the context of Wisconsin, which is even worse than Ohio for COVID right now.

  53. 53.

    Kirk Spencer

    @Yarrow: true. But every single ad includes how he’s working to stop socialism from taking over.

    Says the guy getting va medical and us disability.

  55. 55.

    H.E.Wolf

    I’ve enjoyed writing postcards to TX this election cycle, and it was very satisfying to write for Democratic candidates for the TX State Legislature.

    (My only TX political cred is that Sissy Farenthold spoke – impressively – at one of our school assemblies when I was a kid. :) )

  57. 57.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Roger Moore: It also might get the Right to see the wisdom of doing the electoral collage in if a zombie Trumpfied Republican party is blocking a new second party from forming.

  58. 58.

    zhena gogolia

    @germy:

    That is astounding. She says, “You’re President. Don’t you think you should be accountable to the American people?”

    No, he doesn’t.

  59. 59.

    Mary G

    I know Beto took a  lot of flak for not running for Senate again, but he likes going all over and talking to people, and has a huge following of youngs that he’s trying to get to vote. Who knows if it’ll be enough, but it’s encouraging for ten years from now. He sends me an email every once in a while asking for text or phone banking.

  60. 60.

    Doug R

    I see that Cornyn has clutched his pearls and is running an ad complaining about Hegar’s swears.

    I also heard the Biden campaign was going to drop $6 million in Texas this month.

  62. 62.

    Barry

    @Kent: “So what’s in Ghislaine Maxwell’s testimony that is so explosive?”

     

    Since Epstein’s system seemed to be compromising rich/powerful people with ah, ‘young stuff’, it’s likely that she has evidence of many, many serious felonies.

  68. 68.

    WaterGirl

    @Martin:

    But Dems aren’t yet going after Texas as a winnable state. And it may not yet be, but it’s close.

    I think you might be wrong about that, Martin.  People like Beto, who are on the ground there in Texas, think this is winnable.  That’s a big part of why Biden put 9 million dollars into Texas recently.

    Sure, it’s not a done deal, but I think Beto and others think we can take TX this year.

  69. 69.

    Mike G

    @Martin:

     

    The minute the Repukes start steadily losing Texas in the electoral college, while retaining the state legislature, is when they switch to a proportional distribution like Nebraska.

  70. 70.

    Litlebritdifrnt

    I got a text from my Landlord asking me why I haven’t paid the rent yet yesterday.  I texted him back that it is not  due until the 23rd but I usally pay it early and he texted me back “Apologies but I was basing it on your last two months of payments” so I like a good tenant pays my rent early and the Landlord is now changing the goalposts.

  71. 71.

    WaterGirl

    @Martin: Money for Texas floats all boats.  Money to Biden helps the senate and house races in Texas.  Maybe even the TX legislature.

    Money for the senate race helps up and down the ballot.  Money for the state legislature helps up ballot.

  72. 72.

    gene108

    @Another Scott:

    Republican voters are not nearly as pissed off as Democratic voters are. We have twenty years of bottled up rage we want to unleash, in any way possible.

  73. 73.

    cain

    @Yarrow:

    @RaflW:  Sima’s chances aren’t as good as Sri Kulkarni’s but Dan Crenshaw must be a bit scared because they are running negative ads on her all the time. If Republicans have to spend money defend Crenshaw, that’s a bad sign for them.

    It’s always fun to see ‘Sri Kulkarni’s’ name there since I also go the same first name.

  76. 76.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Kent: Not sure that there’s much to Trump and Epstein other than their sycophantic leeching on the really rich and really powerful.  Trump wanted to be photographed near them.  Epstein wanted to blackmail them into giving him money.

    Alternatively, Epstein cultivated Trump as an asset but eventually realized what everyone now knows: Trump didn’t have any money that wasn’t leveraged.

    Maxwell’s disclosures coming up blank on Trump is plausible.

  78. 78.

    Kay

    I was in Paulding County Ohio this AM- very Trumpy- and I smiled because whoever is the Democratic County chair there is staying in the sign game! There were as many giant Biden signs as there were giant Trump signs. Trump will still win the county but I admire the scrappiness :)

  80. 80.

    J R in WV

    We’ve been kicking in to ActBlue it seems like forever. 2 or 3 weeks ago I felt like we needed to just stop. But it’s really hard not to feel like you are in the fight.

    So I hit several of the thermometers up this time. Just to feel like we’re still in the fight, kicking them in the balls!

    I hate those bastards with the heat of a thousand supernovas!

    Very little gets me going like lies.

  82. 82.

    JoyceH

    I saw on the news that Biden had submitted his negative test results for tonight’s debate and wondered – what if Trump doesn’t? What if he shows up and is all “oh, yeah yeah, I was tested, it’s all good”, but doesn’t have any sort of documentation? Should they go ahead and let him debate?

  85. 85.

    Nora

    @JoyceH:  If they let him slide on that, then he knows there are no rules that will be enforced and the whole thing will be a nightmare from start to finish.  Negative test or no debate.  Period.

  88. 88.

    Peale

    @Litlebritdifrnt: I had a boss like that once. Managed under the mantra of “On time is late and late is unacceptable.” So basically 3 years of not knowing when the actual deadlines really were making it impossible to prioritize my tasks. Because no matter how early I got stuff done, it was always going to be deemed “late.”

  91. 91.

    WaterGirl

    Trump is the only one with anything to gain from the debate tonight.  No negative test submitted, no debate.

    And that should come from the debate commission,  not from Biden.  Time to step up, debate commission.

  94. 94.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Kay: Meanwhile, I feel like Massachusetts is strolling into a second wave because, statewide, it’s not as bad as in the spring. At least in the towns where it’s really bad (like mine) they’ve tried introducing massive testing, but testing doesn’t do anything on its own unless you have a plan for dealing with the positives.

  97. 97.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Three-nineteen: “Swinefeld” reunion? Unless it turns into a combination of death-cage match and demolition derby – which it can’t, since it’s not in-person – I’ll pass. Here’s that whole “phenomenon” in 4 words:

    Repulsive characters behaving reprehensibly.

  98. 98.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Matt McIrvin: I read that yesterday France (pop 66m) had 41k new covid cases.  The us (6x pop of France) had 60k.  Crrrrrikey.  First, I fear for France, and my friends there.  And second, I see France as a harbinger of our future.

  99. 99.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @JoyceH: Fuck no. Invite him (cordially) to leave. If he tries to push his way onto the stage, trip him & hope he breaks his nose when he faceplants.

  100. 100.

    Kent

    @rp:I don’t think Seinfeld is a Trump supporter, but I bet he sees himself as above politics.

    Perhaps he’s like the Michael Jordan of comedians.  Both Democrats and Republicans watch Seinfeld.  So whatcha gonna do?

  101. 101.

    artem1s

    @Another Scott:

    I’ve been watching fundraising for many years and what I’m fixing to tell you is the truth. Republicans don’t donate.

    I believe this.  I know none of my R family members have ever given a dime towards a political cause.  And they don’t do philanthropy either, outside of their Sunday morning tithe.  They pretty much believe that giving money to a cause is for suckers.  Money they give to the church is hedging their bets – camel thru the eye of a needle aside, they pretty much believe they can bribe god with a couple of dollars and a promise to discriminate against women and gays.

  102. 102.

    Kent

    @Chetan Murthy: Spain is spiking just as bad right now.   Depressing.  I thought they had their shit a little bit better together over there.

    We are still sort of OK here in WA but the numbers keep creeping upwards relentlessly.

  103. 103.

    gene108

    @Matt McIrvin:

    NJ has been averaging around 1,000 to 1,200 cases this week. Transmission rate is 1.17. We’re really close to another outbreak.

    It’s very concerning.

  104. 104.

    Nora

    @gene108: New York is watching New Jersey nervously.  Cuomo didn’t add NJ, Pennsylvania or Connecticut to the quarantine list because the states are too closely entangled, but NJ, Pennsylvania and Connecticut have rates high enough to merit quarantine if they weren’t so close, geographically.

  106. 106.

    Chetan Murthy

    @gene108: 1.17.  Oy.  That’s an outbreak already.  Anything >=1 is an outbreak, right?  I mean, maybe slo-mo, but still, growing.  R0=1.0, sure, you can control it, b/c it’s not growing.

  107. 107.

    Matt McIrvin

    @gene108: The thing is, we KNOW the recipe now for beating down an outbreak, and this time, we’re seeing it happen in full Technicolor detail because decent testing is available. The question is just whether we have the smarts and the will to do something about it. There was such automatic agreement after the heavy lockdowns of the spring that it would be impossible to go back to that, and I never understood why. This thing doesn’t sleep.

  108. 108.

    Tim C.

    @Kent:  Oregon, again seems to have dodged a bullet. Rates are falling again. Likewise, Portland isn’t actually filled with anarchist looters (Though I don’t love the professional leftists who aren’t actually connected to BLM at all that are still breaking shit all the time). I have seen near-universal compliance with masking at stores and other places, and most school districts aren’t even going to try hybrid learning (1/2 size classes each day alternating, distanced and masked)

    Not saying it’s perfect, our rural numbskulls are doing the same as everywhere, but the cities are doing what they should be.

  109. 109.

    dmsilev

    @WaterGirl: According to the Post just now, Trump’s minions are saying he tested negative:

    White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told reporters after arriving in Nashville on Thursday afternoon that Trump had tested negative on Air Force One.

    “We tested him on the way here [on the plane] and he tested negative,” Meadows said. It was not immediately clear whether Trump took a PCR test or a rapid-turnaround test, using a machine known as Abbott ID NOW.

    The machine analyzes nasal swabs and delivers results in five to 13 minutes, but researchers have found that it can miss infections.

    Now the question becomes whether or not to believe known guy-with-zero-credibility Mark Meadows.

  111. 111.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    @Matt McIrvin: I thought the lockdowns should have stayed in place but then I am in SW Connecticut and we got hit early and hard(people living in Westchester county and working in both NY and CT among other reasons) also lots of people who commuted to NYC every day.  I think our current positivity rate is 3% which is not good..

  112. 112.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Kent: For perspective I do always try to remember that the real case rate back in the spring probably would have been at least 4 or 5 times as high if they’d been able to test people like they do now. But we still don’t want to go back.

  113. 113.

    Kay

    @Matt McIrvin:

    It’s funny because the positive tests at schools seem to have brought it home. That was when I noticed a real shift – from incessant whining about masks to people having a kind of stunned look, that their kids have to be tested. This is a 65% Trump county and I genuinely believe it wasn’t real to a lot of them. My youngest has been tested and one of our staff is out because her children were exposed on the school bus so are quarantined. She’s back tomorrow.

  114. 114.

    Martin

    @WaterGirl: No, I think it’s winnable – it’s in my EV map, takes Biden to 414.

    But it’ll be the closest state that Biden wins.

    Put another way, I’d put money on Biden winning the presidency, but not on him winning Texas. It’s a coin flip.

  115. 115.

    Aleta

    @germy:  He managed to fill a lot of time to avoid the actual tough questions she stayed away from.  Jared and Ivanka getting richer, his false promise about Afghanistan, Jared’s  profiteer bidding gig  that killed Drs, nurses, nursing home and hospital workers.  Crimes against children kidnapped, dislocated and lost or given away, wall a bust and billions of $ lost.  And now the video to steal attention from today’s debate stories.

  116. 116.

    Kay

    Josh Wingrove
    @josh_wingrove
    ·1h
    Trump will hold rallies in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin this Saturday, per the campaign. He’ll hold one in New Hampshire on Sunday.

    It’s just not a serious campaign. I get it- Trump has a huge ego so they have to go to places like NH and pretend he’s competitive there but he should just be camping in FL and PA and NC. It’s a waste of time and money- and they don’t have enough money.

  117. 117.

    LuciaMia

    Repulsive characters behaving reprehensibly.

    Pretty much sums up Trump & spawn. Specially after Don Jr.s interview on Fox this morning.

  118. 118.

    Walker

    The problem with Texas is the Trump has gained ground with Hispanics. There are many theories why but from what I have read, the best theory is BLM.

    The anti-BLM scare mongering of the right has not affected white votes much because people hold strong opinions on this topic. But Spanish-Language journalism has embraced Fox News arguments and the BLM scare mongering appears to have been effective among Hispanics.

  119. 119.

    WaterGirl

    @dmsilev: There is no question.  I want it submitted in writing, signed by an MD with some credibility.

    The rapid tests they have been using have apparently have a 50% failure rate.  How is that better than no test at all?

  120. 120.

    Calouste

    @Kay: And anyway, NH only has 4 EVs. It’s a place where you only go when you think 271 EVs is the maximum you can get, otherwise there are other states that are a better investment of your time.

  121. 121.

    Danielx

    Voted a half hour ago, in and out in twenty minutes – quickest ever for me, and damn did it feel good to vote against that fat oaf and all his works.

  123. 123.

    raven

    Early voting in Athens-Clarke County has enabled many citizens to do their civic duty, and it’s also allowed some of those electors an opportunity to enjoy a taste of something beyond politics.

    Award-winning chef, restaurateur and author Hugh Acheson has been whipping up pork tacos for those standing in line, providing a tasty treat on Washington Street while people wait for their turn to vote.

    “Given the state of participatory democracy, it’s made it an onus to vote,” said Acheson, who owns and operates the wildly popular 5 & 10 in Five Points and is co-owner of The National in downtown Athens. “So I wanted to give an apolitical taco to people. And it’s not a luring of them to the polls – it’s more of a comforting of them in line while they wait.”

  124. 124.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Amir Khalid: If he’s pushing his way past you on the way to the stage it shouldn’t be hard to “accidentally” take his feet out from under him. If he orders the SS to shove you out of the way, and they comply, then they’re no better than their initials – their task is to protect him, not to attack others at his behest. (You of course remember that Schutzstaffel means “bodyguard staff”.)

    My guess is that he brings at least one flunky with him who’s positive but has a forged or mendacious certification of negative testing. Infecting Biden is about the only hope the miserable motherfucker has left.

  127. 127.

    WereBear

    @Walker: But Spanish-Language journalism has embraced Fox News arguments and the BLM scare mongering appears to have been effective among Hispanics.

     
    My gob is smacked. What do they think of his immigration stance, FFS?

  128. 128.

    jl

    I thought New Orleans women were languid and bittersweet. Texas women are peppery, tough but tender. I’ll look up the Mark Penn Big Book of Sliced and Diced Demographics to check that and come back to spout on how Biden is screwing up the microtargeting and every single Democrat will lose. You all are welcome.

  129. 129.

    NobodySpecial

    I’m a terrible person, I know, but I’m always afraid that Texas support for Dems is a mile wide and an inch deep. If the GOP ever decided at some point to get their shit together, having another candidate with W sized support from Latinos would put Texas right back out of play.

    I’m happy that their open racism keeps it potentially purple for now, but I’m doubtful it lasts if they run into a Dukakis sized drubbing.

  130. 130.

    Barbara

    @Kay: I actually wonder whether he is holding so many rallies because he has more wherewithal to fudge who pays for the travel and his personal security.  Even the local security is usually palmed off on the jurisdiction where the rally is held.

    You can’t even pretend that tv commercials and GOTV operations are government related business.

  132. 132.

    Baud

    @jl:

    I thought New Orleans women were languid and bittersweet

    All the way
    From Bourbon Street to Esplanade
    They sashay by…

  133. 133.

    jl

    @Uncle Cosmo: Penn asked around and found that the Uncle Cosmo demo is critical. He has numbers!

    Edit: I am snarking on all the pundits BSing around right now how the Democrats are totally screwing up their targeting, based on hot air blown out their ass.

  135. 135.

    OGLiberal

    I don’t know if it was this Nate or the other Nate or somebody here but I saw it noted recently that Texas is either already at or close to having 80% of its votes come from the big 4 metro areas (Houston, Dallas/Ft. Worth, San Antonio, Austin) and that there basically is no rural vote in Texas…at least nothing meaningful.  Now, I’m sure there are plenty of Trumpers in the suburbs of those cities but it’s not like it’s a bunch of cowboys and yeoman farmers.  But I think the media still wants to think it is.

  136. 136.

    Kay

    @Barbara:

    Probably. It’s Biden +11. That’s the average. He may as well go to Colorado. It would make as much sense as New Hampshire.

  137. 137.

    Baud

    @NobodySpecial: We’re always at risk at losing key portions of our base the more successful we are.  People make different choices when they are not under threat or are feeling more secure.

  139. 139.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Walker: I fear you’re right there, but OTOH, there’s this (FWIW):

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/22/1988671/-Polling-finds-Latinos-are-overwhelmingly-naming-COVID-19-their-driving-issue-this-election

    Seventy-three percent of Latino voters say in weekly polling from the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund and Latino Decisions that they disapprove of impeached president Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic, with respondents naming COVID-19, a virus that has decimated their communities, as the issue most important to them this election.

  141. 141.

    Chetan Murthy

    @NobodySpecial:

    If the GOP ever decided at some point to get their shit together, having another candidate with W sized support from Latinos would put Texas right back out of play.

    After growing up there, I have my doubts about Texas also.  But OTOH, consider that with the currently-constituted GrOPer base, Dubya would have a *tough* time doing his compassionate conservative or “inclusive of minorities” schtick.  It wouldn’t work with their base, b/c that base has changed, become …. more deplorable.

  143. 143.

    Matt McIrvin

    @OGLiberal: And a lot of *that* Democratic vote in Texas is black, and the interests of urban black Texans and rural Hispanic Texans are not at all the same, so there’s tricky coalition-building involved here.

  144. 144.

    trnc

    @Kent: I actually want to win Texas. There are no “close enough” second place points.

    Nobody wants the steak knives.

  145. 145.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI – https://twitter.com/TheRealHoarse/status/1319380352717197312

    The Hoarse Whisperer
    @TheRealHoarse

    We need to be VERY clear on what has happened here.

    – The Trump Admin knew Russia was seriously attacking our election and said nothing

    – When that was about to come out, the Director of National Intelligence held a press conference where he flatly misled the public

    1/3

    Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1

    Two U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News the Trump administration has known for weeks that Iran and Russia had successfully hacked local governments and obtained voter registration and other personal data.

    https://nbcnews.to/3maIcRi

    4:49 PM · Oct 22, 2020

    The Hoarse Whisperer
    @TheRealHoarse

    – Now that the news has broken, it is 100% clear Director of National Intelligence Ratcliffe knowingly and intentionally 1) misrepresented the facts; and 2) did so to help Trump

    Last night’s press conference was the equivalent of Barr’s memo lying about the Mueller Report.

    2/3

    That isn’t hyperbole.

    Ratcliffe raced to hold a press conference to *falsely* preemptively frame a threat to our national security.

    He did so to protect Trump.

    Ratcliffe is the Bill Barr of Intelligence.

    He must be placed under maximum scrutiny.

    Maximum.

    3/3

    In case you had wondered about how bad Ratcliff is, there’s your answer.

    We have to vote the monsters out!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  147. 147.

    jl

    @Another Scott: Thanks. I’m confused about the use of the word ‘hacking’. Some news reports and commentary (from sources I consider reliable) say it was hacked, others said that it is sold on the open market, often by the states themselves.

    Does anyone know for sure how whoever it was who did this got the data? Also, seems to me that the source of the operation was laundered through countries that have had a problem with, or promote, this kind of laundering, how sure are we that we know who is really doing it?

  148. 148.

    Ruckus

    @RaflW:

    And this time our voters have far more motivation than in times past. People were used to republicans, not necessarily liked them, but used to them. But the last 2 republican presidents? An almost 2 decade war for bullshit, and now this fuckstick? I think a lot of people have woken the hell up.

  149. 149.

    J R in WV

    @Peale:

    October 22, 2020 at 5:36 pm

    @WereBear: voters don’t have immigration issues.

    Actually, anyone who has recently become a citizen or Green Card holder permanent resident can vote here, but probably has many relatives who can’t even visit given current immigration rules.

    I have many friends I brought into the country on H1B visas who became productive citizens who would love to have their parents / brothers / sisters come here as well. At least they themselves are citizens already.

  150. 150.

    TiredOfItAll

    Lol, love a good reference to the Dan.   I can’t watch tonight, too much chance I’ll put a hole through the plasma screen.  I’ll rely on proxies to give me the summary.  Hoping tomorrow’s header here, after a true-to-form Trump fiasco and, please God, rising Biden numbers, will be “Well, the danger on the rocks has surely passed”.

  151. 151.

    Kent

    @Matt McIrvin:@OGLiberal: And a lot of *that* Democratic vote in Texas is black, and the interests of urban black Texans and rural Hispanic Texans are not at all the same, so there’s tricky coalition-building involved here.

    Former Texan here.  They are more alike than you think.  Although they may not realize it.

    Schools, schools, schools.   Texas public schools are about 27% white statewide.  That is why the state GOP is strangling public education in TX.  It’s not “their” people.

    Texas has great schools in affluent white suburbs around the big cities.  It has horrific schools in rural Hispanic areas in the Rio Grande Valley and small towns around Texas, as well as in the Black inner cities of Houston and Dallas.

    Schools are how you merge the interests of Blacks and Hispanics.

  152. 152.

    Another Scott

    @jl: The usual problem with things like this is that people who really know can’t or won’t talk.  So, the rest of us have to get analysis from people who have various biases and agendas.

    Fred Kaplan at Slate seems to have a sensible take on it.

    Reuters, on the other hand, has a bunch of supposed details about how the “hackers” were “sloppy” and thus it allowed the US to figure out who was responsible in a matter of days. That sounds, er, strange to me.

    Within hours of the video being circulated this week, which purported to come from a American far-right group known as The Proud Boys, intelligence officials and major email platform providers, such as Alphabet Inc’s GOOGL.O Google and Microsoft Corp MSFT.O, began closely analyzing computer code that appeared in the hackers’ video.

    Why would “hackers” leave obvious evidence like that in a video?

    Why weren’t things like, I dunno, some sort of Israeli or Saudi false-flag operation explanation considered before Ratcliffe rushing to find any available microphone and video camera to blame Iran?

    To ask the question is to answer it, perhaps…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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