While everyone is focused on Super Tuesday and the Democratic Primary, Israel is having its third election to try to establish an actual government, rather than Bibi’s semi-perpetual caretaker one, today. As of right now the exit polls seem to indicate that Israel is quickly careening towards a constitutional crisis! Let’s check out the meshugas, shall we?
From Bibi’s unofficial and unapproved political biographer:
Correction. All 3 exit polls give Netanyahu's coalition 60 seats. A long night ahead until the actual results https://t.co/lGmWrX1ikW
— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Channel 12 exit poll
Likud 37
B&W 33
Joint List 14
Shas 9
Lab-Meretz 7
UTJ 7
Yamina 7
Lieberman 6— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Channel 11 exit poll
Likud 36
B&W 33
Joint List 15
Shas 9
Lab-Meretz 6
UTJ 7
Yamina 8
Lieberman 6— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Channel 13 exit poll
Likud 37
B&W 32
Joint List 14
Shas 9
Lab-Meretz 8
UTJ 8
Yamina 6
Lieberman 6— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
Israel facing the tensest vote-counting period in its history as even a handful of #IsraElex2020 votes can make the difference between further months of stalemate, if Netanyahu receives 60 seats as predicted by the exit polls, and the extra seat his coalition needs for a majority
— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
With 60 seats, the Netanyahu coalition’s preferred option for reaching a majority is tempting an opposition MK to defect. A few possible names spring to mind. If a defector isn’t forthcoming, Netanyahu will pressure Gantz to join, or perhaps Lieberman will have a change of heart.
— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
If he somehow gains a majority and 61 MKs back his move against the legal system, Israel will face a constitutional crisis and for the first time a prime minister will claim he is not accountable to the rule of law. https://t.co/VBL1KXOJ9w
— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) March 2, 2020
The constitutional crisis is what Bibi will try to jam through Knesset if he is, indeed, able to form coalition government after the votes are counted. Remember, for Bibi this election is about remaining prime minister or going to prison. It isn’t about Israel’s security or the common good or anything else. It is solely about not going to prison.
Netanyahu's triumph, like his campaign, is predicated on erasing this fact ⬇️ https://t.co/1OJQRDT0is
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) March 2, 2020
The Mercer’s appear to have their preferred candidate in Israel, not just the US.
There is Breitbart's Aaron Klein celebrating next to Yair & Avner Netanyahu tonight. https://t.co/oPzI0K3uSe
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) March 2, 2020
I think a lot of the reason that the numbers shifted between the first two elections held last year and today is that because of the actions of the President’s peace negotiating team, Bibi has made it very clear that if his coalition is reelected and he’s able to remain prime minister, that he will annex all the settlements in Area A, as well as significant portions of Area C (the Jordan River valley). This would leave the Palestine Authority with the West Bank equivalent of a terrestrial archipelago. A geographic reality that would make it impossible for there to ever be an actual Palestinian state as there would be no contiguous geography to establish a state. As is too often the case, fear and hate may carry the day.
https://twitter.com/MairavZ/status/1233982901982650369
Now we wait and see if the actual election results match the exit polls. And if Bibi is able to convince the one or two members of Knesset elect to jump to his coalition, if he doesn’t make it all the way to 61 seats outright, so he can try to destroy Israel’s constitution and rule of law system so he can stay out of prison.
Update at 6:25 PM EST
The Times of Israel is reporting updated exit polls!
Updated exit polls reveal Netanyahu coalition set back to 59 seats
Channels 12 and 13 update their exit poll results to include the last two hours of voting — 8 p.m. till 10 p.m. — and deliver possible bad news to a triumphant Likud.
The new figures in both polls show a drop in Likud’s favored rightist-Haredi coalition from 60 to 59 seats, slightly further from the needed 61-seat majority.
Channel 13’s results are:
Likud 37
Blue and White 34 – two more than the original results
Joint List 14
Shas 9
United Torah Judaism 7 – one less
Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7 – one more
Yisrael Beytenu 6 – two less
Yamina 6Channel 12’s:
Likud 37
Blue and White 32 – one less
Joint List 15 – one more
Shas 9
Yisrael Beytenu 7 – one more
United Torah Judaism 7
Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7
Yamina 6 – one less
Open thread!
Israeli Elections Part III: Heading For a Constitutional CrisisPost + Comments (66)
