First off, whoever did this, you’re a genius!!!
Who. Did. This? pic.twitter.com/nbOGn7e1CX
— FakeJoeBiden (@fake_biden) March 5, 2022
I’m doing the update a bit early tonight as I want to go and rack out. Let’s start with my assessment of where things are now.
While predicting the outcomes of these things are always dicey – just ask the guy who said the war would be over by Christmas during the first year of the Thirty Years War – my professional take at this point is Putin won’t be able to take Ukraine, let alone hold it. All he’ll be able to do is destroy it. What I don’t know, what I don’t think anyone can know, is at what point does he decide to switch to full on destroy and how is he going to do it if or when he chooses to do so. Is he just going to rocket, missile, bomb, and mortar Ukraine into rubble, does he just use a few tactical nukes, or a combination of the two? And what I also don’t know is what is Biden’s threshold for switching from what we’re doing now, which is intended to be as low risk as possible to actually doing something higher risk, but more constructive to stop what Putin is doing? As we’ve discussed here, I don’t think the economic measures are going to make a dent in Putin’s decision making, just immiserate his citizenry. This thread does a good job of explaining why:
If you’re hoping that Western sanctions will topple the regime in Russia, here is a thread on why they won’t. 1/n
— Professor Olga Chyzh (@olga_chyzh) March 5, 2022
I think the question is, as I asked above, at what point do we do something else. What’s Present Biden’s, Secretaries Blinken’s and Austin’s, the leadership of our NATO allies, our EU allies not in NATO, and our other major allies and partners? I don’t know. I’m not sure they know yet.
There are three twitter threads I want to highlight up front and then we’ll move right on to the current DOD assessment.
The first is Professor Chyzh’s thread above. Do click across and read the whole thing.
The second is this one from Slava Malamud on the effects of 20 years of Putin and his propaganda on Russia. As Charles Pierces says: “Slava talk, you listen!”
This is extremely, mind-blowingly ludicrous and insane, but also important. It may blow your Western minds, but millions upon millions of Russians have internalized this worldview.
In fact, this requires a ? to explain what exactly many Russians feel they need to fight for… https://t.co/48p2H4IQQJ— Slava Malamud ?? (@SlavaMalamud) March 6, 2022
And a complimentary thread to Slava Malamud’s from Kamil Galeev breaking down how Putin is taking Russia fully fascist:
Let's discuss what's happening in Russia. To put it simply, it's going full fascist. Authorities launched a propaganda campaign to gain popular support for their invasion of Ukraine and they're getting lots of it. You can see "Z" on these guys' clothes. What does it mean? ? pic.twitter.com/F2zjcpJCDZ
— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 6, 2022
Here’s the DOD’s assessment. I’m going to post the first tweet and then copy and paste the rest of the thread into a quote box. Each bullet signifies a tweet.
A senior U.S. defense official just released an updated assessment of the war in Ukraine as of early Sunday evening in Washington. Basic updates:
— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 6, 2022
- “We’ve observed limited changes on the ground over the past day. Russian forces continued efforts to advance and isolate Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv across the north and east are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance.”
- “There does not appear to be any significant movement along the Russian axes. Leading elements remain outside these city centers. We cannot give specific distances today. “The convoy continues to be stalled.”
- “We assess that the Russians have now committed inside Ukraine somewhere near 95% of the combat power they had amassed along the border.”
- “We’ve observed fighting in the south near Kherson and Mykolaiv. We cannot independently verify reporting of Russian forces firing on protesters in Kherson.” “We have not observed an amphibious invasion in or near Odessa, nor do we assess that one is imminent. “We’ve observed continued ongoing fighting and efforts to encircle Mariupol. There continue to be reports of wide-spread utility outages (water and electricity).”
- “We cannot independently verify claims of ceasefire violations,” senior U.S. defense official adds.
- Senior U.S. defense official: “In the airspace, we continue to observe that the airspace over Ukraine is contested. Ukrainian air and missile defenses remain effective and in use. The Ukrainian military continues to fly aircraft and to employ air defense assets.”
- “We are aware of the Ukrainian military’s release of videos and numbers of Russian aircraft shot down,” senior U.S. defense official says. “We cannot independently verify those incidents, but neither are we in a position to refute them.”
- “Both sides have taken losses to both aircraft and missile defense inventories,” senior U.S. defense official says. “We are not going to speak to numbers. We assess that both sides still possess a majority of their air defense systems and capabilities.”
- “As of today, we assess that approximately 600 Russian missile launches have occurred since the invasion began,” senior U.S. defense official says.
- “We believe the Ukrainian people in most parts of the country still have means of communication, access to internet and the media,” senior U.S. defense official says.
- Pentagon says it cannot corroborate any reports of cluster munitions or thermobaric weapons in U.S., can’t say whether the Russians are calling up reserves, and can’t say whether any Russian naval infantry have been loaded on any “LSTs,” a kind of landing craft.
- Pentagon also will not corroborate Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces have shot down one Russian Su-25 fighter jet, two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers, two Russian Su-30 SM planes, and four Russian helicopters today.
- Finally, Pentagon says it cannot corroborate reports that Russian dropped 1,000-pound bombs near Chernihiv.
- This update in text form came instead of background briefings. It is not online, but you’ve now seen what I’m seeing. Would anticipate backgrounders return tomorrow (Monday).
- Observation: Journalists will continue to ask the Pentagon for additional information. But they don’t have nearly the same visibility of this war that they do of the ones they are involved in directly.
- As always, getting a clear picture of what is happening on the ground requires layering numerous sources. Even then, there will be gaps in knowledge.
While the DOD may not be able to independently verify the use of 1,000 lbs bombs, here’s a Russian thousand pound bomb dropped on a Ukrainian civilian target:
This horrific 500-kg Russian bomb fell on a residential building in Chernihiv and didn’t explode. Many other did, killing innocent men, women and children. Help us protect our people from Russian barbarians! Help us close the sky. Provide us with combat aircraft. Do something! pic.twitter.com/3Re0jlaKEL
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) March 6, 2022
And here’s video of attacks on civilians trying to flee Irpin:
The Irpin Bridge shelling incident pic.twitter.com/UbJ6oUnZm1
— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 6, 2022
4 people including 2 children were brutally killed when they tried to evacuate through a green corridor from Irpin' today. Russian bestiality in action pic.twitter.com/iw14nYNf2u
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) March 6, 2022
A green corridor is a term for a humanitarian corridor.
And reporting from the AP’s White House correspondent on the Russians using their declared ceasefire to allow the citizens of Mariupol to evacuate as a targeting opportunity:
LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — A Ukrainian official says a second attempt to evacuate civilians from a besieged city has failed due to Russian shelling.
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) March 6, 2022
Hey, DIA analysts, I’m pretty sure this grieving family and medical professional in Mariupol ARE NOT CRISIS ACTORS!!!
It's Forgiving Sunday today. So repeat after me: Dear Kirill, pls forgive us for your death at the age of 18 mnths. Pls, forgive us for allowing russians to shell your city #Mariupol. Pls, forgive us for not closing the sky over Ukraine yet #CloseTheSky #StopRussia #StopPutin pic.twitter.com/g58H27S4RK
— Kostiantyn Korobov (@Korobov_K) March 6, 2022
The Russians also managed to damage the gas pipeline running near Mariupol!
Donetsk-Mariupol gas pipeline was damaged by #Russian occupants. Now, more than 750,000 of people are left wthout any heat, while it's still often below 0°C outside.
Almost 1 mln of locals will face a humanitarian disaster and risk to freeze till death.
We need #NoFlyZone now.
— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) March 6, 2022
And here’s video of a Russia Su-25 being brought down:
A Russian Sukhoi Su-25 has been downed in Kharkiv.
National Guard air defense is working.
Note the witnesses’ reaction: pic.twitter.com/b3E5JfCbPv— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 6, 2022
Reports are just coming in that targets in Odesa Oblast are being shelled!
⚡️Russian troops launch a missile strike near the village of Tuzla in Odesa Oblast targeting critical infrastructure, spokesman of Operational Headquarters of the Odesa Regional Military Administration Serhii Bratchuk said.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 7, 2022
Perhaps, one day, eventually our intelligence agencies will actually realize that most of the world is available for review on open sources…
Here’s a good thread from the former Russian Foreign Minister (1990-1996) who then served in the Duma and now, I would guess based on his social media, lives somewhere safely beyond Putin’s reach.
Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread.
To frame: I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.
— Andrei V Kozyrev (@andreivkozyrev) March 6, 2022
- First of all, I want to examine where the questioning of Putin’s rationality started. I think it began because most people, particularly in the West, view his decision to invade Ukraine as utterly irrational. I disagree. It’s horrific, but not irrational.
- To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus: 1. Ukraine’s condition as a country 2. Russian military’s condition 3. The West’s geopolitical condition
- 1. Ukraine’s condition. Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state. Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin. He thought the West was behind it.
- If Ukraine’s government cannot be kept independent and pro-Kremlin covertly, as he likely concluded, then he will overtly force it to be. He also started to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine is run by a Nazi-Bandera junta. Perfect pretext to “de-Nazify” Ukraine.
- 2. Russian military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military
- 3. The West. The Russian ruling elite believed its own propaganda that Pres. Biden is mentally inept. They also thought the EU was weak because of how toothless their sanctions were in 2014. And then the U.S. botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, solidifying this narrative.
- If you believe all three of the above to be true and your goal is to restore the glory of the Russian Empire (whatever that means), then it is perfectly rational to invade Ukraine. He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn’t make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral.
- So, in my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West. I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintentional nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
- I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality. The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.
- The ultimate conclusion here is that the West should not agree to any unilateral concessions or limit its support of Ukraine too much for the fear of nuclear war.
Here’s a Ukrainian police element effectively using their RPGs.
Members of the Ukrainian Police KORD special purpose unit engaging Russian tanks with RPG-7. https://t.co/GOHRsHGaX6 pic.twitter.com/HOdmT5QBxL
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 6, 2022
A lot more after the jump!
Here’s some more good news:
⚡️A Ukrainian counter-offensive operation liberates the city of Chuhuiv close to Kharkiv
— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2022
JUST IN: #Russian state TV channels have been hacked by #Anonymous to broadcast the truth about what happens in #Ukraine. #OpRussia #OpKremlin #FckPutin #StandWithUkriane pic.twitter.com/vBq8pQnjPc
— Anonymous TV ?? (@YourAnonTV) February 26, 2022
There is nothing wrong with your television. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are now controlling the transmission. We control the horizontal and the vertical. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive. For the next hour we will control all that you see and hear. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the deepest inner mind to the outer limits.
These fine folks are going to stand out like a sore thumb!
Russia is recruiting Syrians for urban combat in Ukraine, U.S. officials say https://t.co/LF3wLQgWTe via @WSJ
— toomas hendrik ilves (@IlvesToomas) March 6, 2022
Here’s some relative’s of friends of Gin&Tonic’s (if I read his comment right) getting married.
This couple, Lesya and Valeriy, just got married next to the frontline in Kyiv. They are with the territorial defense. pic.twitter.com/S6Z8mGpxx9
— Paul Ronzheimer (@ronzheimer) March 6, 2022
The Russians continue to target radiological sites:
The Security Service of Ukraine: Invaders fired on the National Science Center at Kharkiv Institute of Physics &Technology with multiple-launch rocket systems. There is a nuclear installation "Source of Neutrons", in the active zone of which 37 nuclear fuel elements are installed
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) March 6, 2022
Give Israel money and weapons they said. They’ll be our only reliable, democratic ally in the region they said…
Ex @IsraelMFA DG Alon Liel: "Future generations will look at Israel's position during the war, which began with a mumbling attempt to shuffle between Putin & the West. Bennett's trip to Russia gave Putin the stamp of neutral Israel's approval– which we won't be able to shake." https://t.co/LbPe3xxgoh
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) March 6, 2022
This thread explains why:
Russian oligarchs bought property in London and Dubai and yachts in Italy etc, but that's not all they did with their money. Has anyone yet mentioned how much Russian money ended up in Israeli tech startups? https://t.co/KuGx6nI4bC
— İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي (@iyad_elbaghdadi) March 3, 2022
If you haven’t seen it, this video is about 9 minutes long, it has translated subtitles, but it is well worth watching.
This, out of #Ukraine, is 100% one of the most incredible videos I have ever seen.
This Russian POW has the heart of a lion ? pic.twitter.com/KIx1rsN0CZ
— Jackie Singh ?? ?? (@hackingbutlegal) March 6, 2022
Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev put this out last night:
Last night, an alleged FSB whistle-blower letter was published that damned Russia's military performance in Ukraine and predicted a disaster for the RU in the next weeks and months. I wasn't sure if it was authentic – as Ukraine had previously leaked fake FSB letters as psy-ops.
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022
I showed the letter to two actual (current or former) FSB contacts, and they had no doubt it was written by a colleague. They didn't agree with all of his conclusions, but that's a different story.
Here's the text, worth reading: https://t.co/KyRDX4VuDV— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022
Since I can’t access Facebook or any other of Meta’s products (thank someone’s, anyone’s Deity!), I couldn’t pull the original letter, which is in Russian. However, this tweet thread has a translation done by the thread’s author (courtesy of commenter counterfactual):
?My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain – covers many subjects.
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 6, 2022
And I’ll leave it there for tonight.
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Don’t they have a fucking TV in the Pentagon?
counterfactual
A manual translation of the alleged FSB analyst document, with some footnotes.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: They’re all set to Fox News. I am not joking.
Adam L Silverman
@counterfactual: Thanks you. I’ll move that above in a couple of minutes.
The Pale Scot
That would be great target for a F-22 to come up from below and use sidewinders if it travels over the Med
Gin & Tonic
I think you know more or less what my son does and who he works for, which I’m not going into detail on, but one thing that surprised him the first time they were briefing one of the agencies is how apparently limited people with active clearances are, in what they can access in some of the more, um, interesting corners of the internet. This may not be news to you, but it was to me.
Mike in NC
@Gin & Tonic: I worked in the Pentagon for a year for no pay (reservist) and made sure FOX News never was watched in my space.
Adam L Silverman
@counterfactual: It is now up top. Thanks again!
Ksmiami
Supply the Baltic states to fly a humanitarian corridor. Seize / freeze all assets of Russian dickheads everywhere around the globe- yes, even in Israel beCause fuck those traitorous shitheads. Turn off the electrical grid in Russia.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I’m all to aware.
Renie
Apologies for my ignorance but what is the background on Russia labeling of stuff with Z? Does Z stand alone in a meaning or is it an abbreviation for something?
Chetan Murthy
@Renie: read galeev thread. apparently Z for victory (maybe)
dmsilev
I had some Soviet-era ice cream, in Leningrad just a year or two before the fall of the USSR. It was good. Not sure I’d honestly call it best in the world, but if that’s what it would take to end this, sure fine, it was the king of all ice cream.
Lyrebird
Same, and I am prepared to co-sign if it would help. (Narrator: it won’t help…) Anyhow, it was quite good ice cream, vanilla with lingonberries on top.
Anyhow, if Malamud is right on, it sure shows why Betty Cracker is as usual right about most everything. All that denied-greatness crap, no wonder the poser trucker caucus and people like that think the Russian regime is the bees knees.
Villago Delenda Est
I think the Z was originally a designator for what Russian military district supplied the asset, but it’s evolved into a general ID of Russian vehicles in the Ukraine, and therefore moved on to be a general symbol of the “liberation” of the Ukraine from the evils of fascism, which has been redefined as Ukrainians acting all independent like under a democratic system and telling Vlad’s puppets to fuck off like Russian warship.
Another Scott
@Renie: I’ve seen “Z” and “V” and “O” on the invading equipment. Some say Z is for West (zapad), V is for East (vostok), O is for Belarus (?).
The big painted letters apparently also function to keep their side from attacking their equipment.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Lyrebird
@Renie: I think the full answers are in the acronym thread. Shows which group that unit is from.
Peale
So what can shot down bombers?
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: Z and V aren’t even letters in the Cyrillic alphabet. That’s what makes it weird.
Gin & Tonic
@Villago Delenda Est: Not “the” Ukraine, please.
Villago Delenda Est
@Gin & Tonic: Bad habit. Trying to fix. /bonks head on desk
Morzer
@Villago Delenda Est: My friend, you need Russian self-whipping machine. Is very cheap, very classy.
Villago Delenda Est
@Peale: Fighters. SAMs. In general, fighters have a much better chance than a SAM, as true bombers (not fighter-bombers, different animal) usually fly high to avoid ground based air defense.
Villago Delenda Est
@Morzer:
I understand Merde-a-loser has some in stock, but it’s on the other side of the continent from me, and my credit is no good there.
Ksmiami
Question for Adam. So how do we diminish Russia’s nuclear stockpile… is there anyway? Then we could isolate the nation let the country die off from alcoholism and depression.
Ken
@Chetan Murthy: Victory? Interesting coincidence, I wonder if they plan to add a second “Z” next to the first. Or maybe the second will cross the first, at a 90 degree rotation.
Lyrebird
@Villago Delenda Est:
So the bombs that have hit western cities like Lviv, would they have been dropped from bombers rather than launched from ground-based artillery units?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Carlo Graziani
Olga Chyzh’s take on regime change in Russia seems reasonable, but at this point the “Oligarch putsch” is not really the plausible scenario any more. Given the disaffection of the Army fighting in Ukraine (listen to the end of that 9-minute video again, the guy is talking about the shame all ranks feel about fighting, and being resisted by, and being hated by, their Ukrainian brethren); and given the alarm the general staff must be experiencing at the newly-revived NATO, including the possibility/likelihood of new members (Finland, Moldova…) worsening Russia’s strategic situation in consequence of this war they clearly did not choose; and given their further alarm that the economic resources to shore up the military will not be available in a Russia whose FY2023 GDP is likely to be comparable to that of Albania…
Where I’m going with this is that at the moment, the most likely regime change model is not a “you’re fired” from a bunch of pissed-off oligarchs. It’s a Tank Guards brigade blowing down the Kremlin gate and brushing aside Putin’s security, so that they can hunt him through the complex and put a bullet in his brain. That’s practically an orderly constitutional proceeding by Russian standards.
bbleh
This is a fantastic post! More detail than you’d find in a lot of “executive-level” briefings … and that’s good!
Only one specific reaction: the Chyzh thread is getting a lot of circulation, and it seems coherent and persuasive on its own term, but to me its frame seems somewhat limited. The idea of some sort of “defenestration by the oligarchs” is silly, of course, but economic strains that in turn cause military strains also strain the political system. Cracks become gaps. Just as a hypothetical, what if enough money got together behind some ambitious second- or third-level “strongman” who argued that Putin is leading Russia to ruin for no good reason? “The problem is not a lack of Russian greatness; it’s one old man’s foolish obsession.” To analogize from the Malamud thread, what if the Kochs and the Mercers and the rest of the Republican billionaires shifted from Trump to, I dunno, DeSantis?
Recent reports seem to suggest that the US IC has very good sources indeed among the Russian ruling elite. One wonders how granular they are, and what “cracks” exist that might be exploited …
zhena gogolia
@Ksmiami: You have lost your humanity.
Really, this would not be tolerated around here if it were referring to any other country, no matter how horrible their government.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: I am the wrong person to ask. This is not me area of expertise.
Kattails
I read the FSB analyst’s comments that were posted just before you flipped it to the link. I was long, with no breaks or paragraphs. But…ummm…wowzers. A lot of data to digest, and the conviction is that Putin will not use nukes, which gives us rather more leeway to risk calling his bluff. Sounds like a guy who’s banging his head against the desk in unmitigated frustration, clear eyed about where the money went that should have kept the military modernized. Clear eyed about how stupid it is to ask for assessments that you really only want to hear one answer for.
Just before or as Putin was starting this up I said I wished he’d remember King Croesus’ mistaking the answer he got from the Oracle at Delphi for a thumbs-up. So far I’m still good with that.
Roger Moore
@Gin & Tonic:
“I saw it on TV” is not independent verification; it’s repeating an interested source. Independent verification would mean someone not party to the conflict could confirm it.
Renie
@Chetan Murthy: thanks. Just read his full thread. Very interesting.
karensky
What’s with the use of “the Ukraine” rather than Ukraine. I learned the correct usage almost 40 years ago.@Villago Delenda Est:
Aziz, light!
@Ksmiami:We can diminish half of Russia’s nuclear stockpile by hitting it with our nuclear stockpile before the other half of their nuclear stockpile hits us.
Is that the answer you were looking for? Or do you think this is a video game?
debbie
Any idea when we’ll know how long Anonymous was able to broadcast for?
Someone posted the full 20+ minute statement from the three Russian police. The whole thing is worth watching.
Also, fuck Israel. This has Bibi stink all over it.
Roger Moore
The FSB letter is very interesting, but I would take some of it with a huge grain of salt. In particular, the author says several variations on “how can we provide accurate predictions if you won’t tell us what the plans are”. Maybe this is fair, but it sounds a lot like ass covering to me. The author basically says the FSB was giving slanted assessments that were what they thought their superiors wanted to hear because that was safer than telling the truth. That has the air of plausibility, but it does mean you have to take anything he says with caution, since he’s already admitted to shading the truth.
HumboldtBlue
The bullet points are excellent, thanks for that.
Adam, I’ve seen tweets that anonymous has hacked Russian TV, any details on that? I see I missed it in the post (that was a lot of page loading for an old desktop).
Mallard Filmore
There are some interesting unrolled threads here:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500196510054637569.html
The suggestions of threads to unroll does not appear to be static, so what is suggested for you will not be what I see.
Ksmiami
@Aziz, light!: I was thinking more along the lines of incentives and treaties post Putin.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
What I don’t understand is why can’t the West reimburse the Russian funds/investments that would be lost in these Israeli tech companies? Surely if it’s all about money, then that would be agreeable to the Israeli government, wouldn’t it? Am I missing something?
Fair Economist
Showing a bunch of examples of pro-fascists in Russia means nothing when Putin is trying to amplify them. Russia is a big place, it will have enough fascists to plaster the media. Sort of like the NYT Cletus safaris. We know millions in Russia approve of butchery in Ukraine and millions are horrified. To know the ratio we need good public polling, which we don’t have.
West of the Rockies
@zhena gogolia:
Please know that by far most of us know not to confuse Russians with Putin. I have taught multiple young Russians developmental English, and they were lovely and sweet.
Lyrebird
I’m not trying to be obtuse here, but might be succeeding. I figure that given who this person allegedly works for, you’d take it with caution from the get-go.
If it’s real, it’s pretty courageous.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
“The problem is, when I’m bought, I stay bought.”
Also maybe worth remembering that the mob in Israel is apparently in bed with the mob in Russia.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Fair Economist:
That’s my thoughts as well
Ksmiami
@zhena gogolia: Hunh? I was thinking more about reducing nuclear weapons in the world post Putin. The lives of billions shouldn’t be at risk from one monster. We need to work at this across the globe.
Fair Economist
The FSB letter has plausible conclusions, but I can’t see who it’s written for. Not for internal use; not deferential enough. Not for a friend; it’s too long. Seems to be written for the public, which would be odd for an FSB agent. Maybe a retired one opposed to the invasion?
bbleh
@Carlo Graziani: Ok, yeah, I like that scenario too. But many similarities in the analysis. And of course, someone would have to lead that brigade, and he would need allies — or at least enough neutral people — among the “strongmen.”
Carlo Graziani
On a separate topic that hasn’t yet been raised here:
The NSA actually has investments in cyberwarfare that dwarf the rest of the world’s, both in terms of budget and personnel. Some of their likely offensive capabilities in the CRADA space would actually seem to be so tailor-made to, say, screwing up logistic resupply in rear areas — messing up rail switching, scheduling, interfering with parts orders, really poking at difficult-to-harden infrastructure that nobody thinks about until it is suddenly vitally important to get crucial materials and consumables and personnel to the front — that I would actually be very surprised if those capabilities were not actually in active use at the moment. They’d be quite deniable, after all. Nobody would find out about it for years, if ever — it took over 25 years for the Enigma break to become public after all…
Butter Emails!
I’m more interested in what our response would be to Putin using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Does it cause a full conventional response? Do we respond in kind and nuke Belograd? Does NATO assume that Putin’s use of a nuclear weapon would inevitably escalate to a full nuclear exchange and launch a full combined nuclear and conventional first strike in a desperate attempt to eliminate Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
Fair Economist
@Carlo Graziani: The slowness of the Russian assault makes me suspect mutiny already. I think the fear of that is driving the extreme Russian response, not fear of street protests.
bbleh
@Butter Emails!: No and no and no. Cold as it is to say, NATO is a defensive alliance, and Ukraine isn’t part of it. NATO certainly would not respond with a nuclear weapon anywhere, nor do I think there would be any sort of conventional response by NATO qua NATO within Ukraine.
I’m afraid that, if Putin decides to scorch the earth in Ukraine but carefully avoids setting foot in a NATO country, then NATO will grind their teeth and let him do it.
Ksmiami
@zhena gogolia: fascist countries are an enemy of humanity and with nukes an existential threat to every living thing on the planet. We will be better off if Russia is utterly defeated, baring that: isolated from doing harm.
Kattails
@Ksmiami: Really, knock that shit off. You wouldn’t say it about animals, FFS. Alcoholism and depression? Ordinary humans trying to make a go of whatever life they were born into, in a vast country. The same kinds of people our hearts are bleeding for in Ukraine, old people, pregnant women, schoolchildren. You are also implying starvation.
When was the last time you faced 15 years in prison and the loss of everything, to protest the leadership of your country? Living under a massive propaganda machine? We freaked out at four young people getting shot at Kent State oh so long ago. I’ve seen National Guard troops in DC, but never felt the level of threat anyone in Russia must be acutely aware of.
Jinchi
Putin would have to be suicidally insane to use a nuke. We’ve spent the last 80 years convincing the world of mutually assured destruction, you just don’t go around tossing nukes and I don’t believe there is such a thing as a tactical nuke in the popular imagination. If he were stupid enough to use one (in Europe!), he’d spend the rest of his life waiting for polonium in his tea or a ‘tactical nuke’ on his home.
RaflW
After reading that Slava thread, it hasn’t escaped my notice that Florida terrible-man DeSantis has steeply ratcheted up his rhetoric (via close associates) to now be basically saying: If you oppose the don’t-say-gay bill moving in FL, then you are a “groomer”. Yes, they’re going that fucking low and disgusting.
The christo-fascist while male dominant society Putin and putinists are working towards is barely distinguishable from the America right. It’s why Tuckums can’t really quit Putin. And why bit players like Rod Dreher should just fucking move to Budapest and leave us TF alone.
Roger Moore
@Lyrebird:
Yes. It would take a very big artillery piece to launch at 500 kilo shell. It’s relatively easy to tell the difference if you see one that hasn’t exploded. Artillery shells look like gigantic bullets. Bombs have fins on the back to help them fly straight, which artillery shells don’t need.
HumboldtBlue
The human spirit can be an amazing thing.
Little Ukrainian girl sings, bring tissues.
debbie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Yeah. Why should the West reimburse Israel at all for their bad investment choices?
The Pale Scot
@Carlo Graziani:
Hey! Stop plagiarizing Clancy!
Mallard Filmore
There are some interesting unrolled threads here:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500196510054637569.html
The suggestions of threads to unroll does not appear to be static, so what is suggested for you will not be what I see.
[this is a duplicate, the first posting went to moderation. I must have mispelled the email]
Chetan Murthy
@Ksmiami: @zhena gogolia: I think most of us would prefer a happy and peaceful Russia, knit into the family of nations. But if that’s not on the table, then a defanged, isolated, and walled-in Russia is a second-best choice. Nobody wants to kill off humanity in the hopes of defeating the Fascists who currently run Russia; if the best we can achieve is to defang them, then that’d be acceptable.
Jinchi
Have they seen examples of both in Ukraine?
Cameron
I’m no Putin fan, but I wonder if it would be worthwhile if the West could quietly offer him some sort of face-saving climbdown so he doesn’t torch all of Ukraine. He doesn’t have to come off as a big winner – since he certainly won’t be – but as somebody willing to make a ‘reasonable compromise.’ I really believe that if he accepts that he’s losing in Ukraine, he’ll try to burn it to the ground.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
I suppose I thought it would be to get Israel on our side?
Jinchi
The problem is that he has to define what ‘face-saving’ means. No one in the west can offer it to him. They can only accept an offer he makes. He’s the one who has defined the overthrow of Ukraine as the definition of success.
HumboldtBlue
This piece just came across my timeline.
@Cameron:
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Chetan Murthy:
So, basically, you’re saying they can’t be bought off by a higher bidder?
debbie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
No.
Ksmiami
@Kattails: Russia has done this to itself. You can’t have it both ways- either the population wants to enjoy the perks of global citizenry and higher standards of living, or they accept that being a brutal 17th century country means isolation and impoverishment. And I like Russian people on an individual level but they need to pay a price for reducing innocent lives into rubble
Cameron
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think the amount of aid Israel gets from the United States is more than enough from us. How the state chooses to deal with its individual investors is not our problem.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
I didn’t say anything wrong, did I?
Ksmiami
@Chetan Murthy: I agree. I’m not arguing for a world ending war – just a padded cell.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I was half-making a joke. But the serious part is: I think that Israel’s connections with Russia are deeper and firmer than we might think. And that means it will take more than mere money to change it. For sure, it’ll take serious pressure. I mean, Israel has for years been a unreliable partner of the US, selling tech it gets from us to China, for instance.
wombat probability cloud
@Chetan Murthy: Thank you.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Cameron:
@Chetan Murthy:
Those….are very good points, actually
debbie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
No. What Chetan said. My words would have been ruder, particularly in the area of “unreliable.”
Kattails
@zhena gogolia: And now I flipped to Malcolm Nance’s twitter feed, and see that “Putin is the average Russian for those I talk with”, that Russia is launching an Orthodox crusade, and Russian social media are cheering. Not always love and light on that end either.
Lyrebird
I thought your earlier wording was hyperboly, but appartently not. I’m not in agreement, not when commenters here basically say “TX voted for Cruz so fine if they all get Covid” and not now. Not that my opinion weighs much.
Leaving the humanitarian side, let’s check this “better off?”
If reviewing the history of Germany post WWI doesn’t change that estimate, maybe just go with the attitude twd the Russian people generally that we hear from the head of the country they just invaded.
James E Powell
@dmsilev:
I had quite a bit of Soviet ice cream and thought it was the best vanilla ice cream I’d ever had. And with the official exchange rate of 43.50 rubles to the dollar – never mind the street rate of about 300:1, the ice cream at 10 kopeks was pretty much free.
Also too, the bread, both black & white, was as good as bread from the best bakeries here in the USA.
Adam L Silverman
@Jinchi: Yes.
Lyrebird
time bomb.
FTFY, with respect. Sima Qian said it better than I could but I don’t remember on which thread.
Ksmiami
@HumboldtBlue: great article. I’m in full agreement- no way forward with Putin at the helm.
Carlo Graziani
One last thing, after a thanks to Adam, who continues to condense so much signal from such tremendous amounts of noise.
I occasionally catch myself also thinking thoughts such as “The Russians would never…<your favorite horrible here>” There’s a great deal of very reasonable arguments one can make for various more-or-less aggressive responses. On my own behalf, I will say that I (re)-learned the value of intellectual modesty when I made very confident assertions that there would be no Ukraine invasion, because such a thing defied every reasonable reading of Russian national interest. Obviously, Putin was reading that interest very differently than I.
My point is that when it comes to high-consequence decisions that can’t be taken back, I’m really, really glad that we have Biden making those calls. They may not be made correctly, but they will be considered thoroughly. The alternative model, from our not-too-distant past, is George W. Bush, who never experienced a doubt in his cognitively-challenged life.
We should be suspicious of certainties. Life, and especially war, is about the balance of risks. Some risks are very large, and only fools take them lightly. One may have to accept them, under extreme circumstances, when imperatives — some perhaps moral — dictate that the alternatives are worse. But people who accept such risks without actually having done the calculation, and without acknowledging what the actual bad outcomes might be, should be strictly forbidden from rolling the dice.
Adam L Silverman
@Cameron: @Jinchi: Putin has already stated his terms:
Kattails
@Chetan Murthy: Agreed. What kind of reaction do you think I’d get if I put that thought into a letter to the editor of my local paper?
HumboldtBlue
Tom Nichols leaves a mark on a fellow guest who thought excusing Trump on Ukraine and Russia was accurate.
Chetan Murthy
@Kattails: Two thoughts:
I look to Europe to lead on this, and to rap America’s knuckles when we (and the *fucking* UK, jesus h christ) step out of line.
If it were me, I wouldn’t do it, only b/c I don’t see the point. I’d write letters to my legislators, though. And socialize it among my friends and colleagues.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Kattails:
I don’t understand these people. Isn’t the “Great Patriotic War” taught in Russian schools? How do they not see the Nazis in themselves and each other? Practically the entire world has condemned them for invading Ukraine and has destroyed their economy in retaliation.
Finally, how can we be sure the Russian government isn’t trying to amplify pro-Putin voices? There’s been thousands protesting across Russia against the war
RaflW
@Ksmiami: “either the population wants to enjoy the perks of global citizenry and higher standards of living, or they accept that being a brutal 17th century country means isolation and impoverishment”
The problem, as laid out well in the OP, is that most Russian citizens haven’t enjoyed perks. They’ve had their nations resources and much of their personal and collective labor value stolen by Putin and his hand-picked oligarchs. But in the worlds biggest, and largely successful disinfo campaign about the theft, all the missing loot has been blamed on the West.
Ksmiami
@Lyrebird: One man has brought us to this point- this point where we actually are watching the destruction of a country in real time for the only sin of wanting self-determination. One man. And the country that has enabled this state of affairs needs to be altered and not by their own hands since their own structure and history has allowed this. There was a reason we redesigned German and Japan after WW2; the same has to happen in Russia.
Lyrebird
@Roger Moore: Thanks for the clarification!
Beautifully put.
Tragic situation.
I had better go sleep.
HumboldtBlue
@Ksmiami:
There is no bolt-hole to provide for him, he’s all in and Ukraine is a nation of 40 million, and they ain’t giving up. I am still boggled at just what he thought was going to happen by invading the country?
marklar
@Carlo Graziani: “Life, and especially war, is about the balance of risks.”
Very important point. Prospect theory in economics (Daniel Kahneman won his Nobel for this) has shown that when faced with scenarios in which losses are probable, people become more will to take larger risks.
This greatly concerns me with Putin. According to the theory (and supporting data) more it looks like a loss is a likely outcome, the more reckless he will likely become, resorting to bigger and bigger gambles.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@RaflW:
I’m not sure we can know that absent reliable scientific polling. There’s been plenty of Russians protesting against the war on Ukraine
Ksmiami
@RaflW: Actually though the average Russian is better off than under communism and Tsarist Russia- even with the oligarchs.
Roger Moore
@Carlo Graziani:
TPutin isn’t likely to behave like a leader carefully considering the facts to come up with the best plan for his country. On the one hand, it seems clear that he considers his own interest rather than his country’s interest. On the other hand, it sounds as if the people he relies on to provide him with information are afraid to tell him anything but what he wants to hear, since he has a reputation for shooting the messenger. Either one of those things would be bad on its own, but they are ever so much worse in combination.
Chetan Murthy
@HumboldtBlue:
I read an interesting article about the start of the war (2014) when he took the Donbass. These Ukrainians were writing that at that time, the UA army really was a hollow paper mache’ doll. All the equipment was rotten, the training was Soviet, etc, etc. Completely riven thru. Putin could have marched thru Ukraine from Donbass to Lviv with no resistance. And he knew it, too.
I suspect that he just assumed nothing had gotten better, is all. Whereas, he provided the perfect training ground for the UA army: a confined conflict that their adversary would not heat up unbearably (until 2wk ago), over years and years, so the UA army could rotate in entire cohorts of troops to train, fight, rearm, retrain, fight again, eventualy muster out into society, etc.
He didn’t realize he was training the UA army.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
Oh, gotcha
terry chay
@Gin & Tonic: What part of “independently” are you missing? I know this is personal to you but it’s not like they are saying that it isn’t happening, it’s saying they have nothing to add beyond what is already out there. That’s how the CIA operates in the public.
It was a huge step to put out secret information of the impending invasion before the war started (information that almost every European country and China denied until it turned out to be accurate), but the fog of war has descended and it will take a long time before they can “independently verify” much that isn’t already obvious.
Matt McIrvin
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I understand them. I saw this happen in the United States from 2001-2005. I got caught up in it myself a little. I think the roots of Trumpism are partly in nostalgia for that era, when even a lot of liberals were behind an aggressive global military crusade that involved invading and conquering other countries. Trump wasn’t actually much into starting wars but he gave them the feels.
Adam L Silverman
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The Soviets wrote their own version of WW II. In their version, the Jews weren’t the NAZIs primary target and ultimate victims, the Soviets were. I don’t know if post Soviet Russian history books ans education do a better job of teaching a more factually accurate history of WW II. Others here may know.
RaflW
@Chetan Murthy: There are many who suggest that the UK has not yet stepped into line. Their alleged sanctions on oligarchs haven’t kicked in yet. Oh, they’re announced. But have left sufficient time for the scumlords to move their funds from private British banks to other, even more opaque repositories. (Kudos to the Swiss, if their announcements are for realz). This 7 min NPR segment this afternoon was really good.
Other critiques more directly about the UK’s difficulties with oligarch money. I heard something else today on my local affiliate but can’t remember which show, that talked more plainly about how much money has funneled into, in particular, Tory coffers in the UK. Hard to wean from that shit.
Kattails
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): AHEM CRT “don’t say gay” etc. I have no idea what’s taught in Russian schools, but judging by how a good many people in our freedom-loving country want history to be censored, nothing would surprise me.
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
How do the cops who shoot innocent Black civilians not see themselves as murderers ? It’s all about ideology, right? You train yourself to see yourself and your kind as righteous, and all the others as enemies, besieging you and the righteous, chosen of God. Etc, etc. And remember that the public is not shown the reality of this war, not at all. So even if they could find out, all they have to do is not bother. Just as racists do in the US. Just as so many misogynists do in the US. Avoid finding out the truth about how people are mistreated, and you can amble along, complicit in or even participating in the oppression.
As to whether the govt is amplifying pro-Putin voices, I’m sure they are. We can’t know what’s really happening inside Russia: it’s mostly a black box. All we can do is degrade their ability to harm Ukraine (and our NATO allies). That’s all we can see, and thus, all we can try to affect.
Chetan Murthy
@Matt McIrvin:
Oh geez yes! Remember “they hate us for our freedoms!” ?? Sigh.
Another Scott
@bbleh: +1
Remember the 1991 attempted coup against Gorbachev. VVP “goes on a vacation”, a few tank units move into Moscow, etc. It won’t be the oligarchs – they have no power base; it’ll be someone who can rouse the heart of the plotters against VVP.
Things are moving very, very quickly. Shiogu and Gerasimov seemed very uncomfortable at VVP’s table when he said he was upping Russia’s nuclear alert level. I’m sure they are much, much more uncomfortable now, given how badly the war has gone…
Things are moving very, very quickly. VVP should be very worried…
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
RaflW
@Ksmiami: Oh, a blisteringly effective akshually.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: Would you please dial it back a few notches? Just! ease up a bit.
Thanks!
HumboldtBlue
@Chetan Murthy:
Good point, thanks.
Roger Moore
@HumboldtBlue:
I’m sure everyone around him told him it was a brilliant idea and Ukraine was sure to capitulate after a very short campaign. Anyone who might tell him otherwise has long since been gotten rid of or bullied into following along.
Matt McIrvin
@Ksmiami: It’s interesting: Russian life expectancy dropped alarmingly after the breakup of the USSR and in 2005 it was lower than it was in 1959. But it’s gained all that back and then some since then, all under Putin (though the numbers I can find are pre-COVID). I can see some logic behind average Russians seeing him as a bringer of stability and prosperity.
Chetan Murthy
@RaflW:
Count me among their number. 100% agree. Jesus, every time I read about yet another shitty thing the UK has done (like Priti Patel granting 50 visas to UA refugees so far, jesus h christ) I get angry. The Brits need to ream out their society of all this Russian influence.
But then, we’re not any better — worse actually. I saw a list of how many oligarchs have been sanctioned in various Western countries, and we were even further down than the UK. Jesus, we KNOW there are massive numbers of condos and flats in big cities, owned by these bastards, and we’re doing NOTHING about it. NOTHING.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
@Kattails:
@Matt McIrvin:
@Chetan Murthy:
All good points. When I see pictures of those stupid “Z” things these idiots are wearing, I just want to scream in their faces what fucking pieces of shit they are
Kattails
@Ksmiami: I wold like to see your work-study on that, since a very recent Rand corp. study showed that the average American was considerably worse off after 40 or so years of our own oligarchs bleeding the middle class.
We have a very valuable commenter on here who has clearly stated being hurt by many badly-phrased comments, it’s come up before. While I can understand your fury at Putin, it would be nice if you could back off the brutal “alcoholism and depression” thing. Like, you know, be a bit better than the guy you hate who can’t back off anything.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Matt McIrvin:
We’ll see how long that image persists the longer the Russian economy takes a shit
terry chay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think you are missing the fact that this is how democracies are corrupted. Heck, this is how Putin took over Russia and also why targeting Russian oligarchs is so effective and blindsided them — Putin has operated through funding these people until they are wholly owned to the point that they don’t even know where it all started.
In other words, you can’t just “reimburse” the “loss” of Israeli tech companies and get a change. The co-opting of those companies was the avenue by which Putin insinuated himself inside the ruling faction of Israel and now they’re stuck in a situation that people will not forget (or forgive) when the dust settles and they’re the ones in need of some help
@Fair Economist: ++ Though given the current control Putin has had over the media, I’d imagine support for the war is >50% (though not as extreme as in the video). Plus he would have had an initial bump. Heck, George W. Bush had insane approval around the time we attacked Afghanistan. This will change and what matters is where that will settle at.
surfk9
Still looking at my Battle of the Bulge scenario. The Ukrainians have held the shoulders of the invasion and are now poised to achieve a strategic stalemate.
Mallard Filmore
@RaflW:
Here is a tweet with a video about UK laundry:
https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1499826084820529153
Chetan Murthy
@terry chay: Oh, well-put! All of it!
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: OTOH…
FWIW.
(via IamHappyToast)
Cheers,
Scott.
Jinchi
He thought he would easily retake Ukraine, execute it’s leaders and install his puppets.
Anybody who remembers the “6 days, 6 weeks, I doubt 6 months” quote should understand how easy it is for leaders to delude themselves.
Putin successfully installed a puppet in the American presidency. His support for Brexit paid off handsomely. He’d already walked into Crimea and ‘covertly’ taken a chunk out of Eastern Ukraine.
Why wouldn’t he think he could easily take the rest of it?
Ruckus
@Cameron:
I don’t think he gives a damn about the people, he wants the borders, the land. He thinks that’s rightfully his as the supreme being of Russia. Besides after seeing how much they hate him and are willing to kill his troops, even as many of the captured Russian soldiers say they are brothers and they were wildly misinformed, I’d bet his life today, despite all the pics to the opposite isn’t worth a ruble.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
IDK That war started in Prague and was back under the chin of Hapsburg domination pretty quickly after the Battle of White Mountain, the problem was one power after another kept jumping in. So that guy was technically right, just horribly limited in his visions of consequences.
Everyone goes on about this is like Winter War of 1940, but I am thinking the Russian Army is reminding me of the Spanish Army in The Rift War 0f the 1920s; utter incompetence from an army living in the past, terror troops breaking a functioning society were Fransisco Franco got his start and it led into the Spanish Civil war. So there is a vision for the future.
Kalakal
@RaflW:
And the many are right. I’m ashamed
Before the invasion they did the right thing by supplying 1000s of NLAWS.
Since then its been Johnsons world beating barrage of bullshit. The sanctions announced are all designed to sound good but not actually cause any real pain. Johnson and his minions are playing to a very small audience and are desperate to conceal and maintain their own funding. I think the plan was to sound tough and then blame the failure of organising sanctions on the hated EU .The EU more than stepped up to the plate and now they’re exposed for the shits they are.
Ksmiami
@Kattails: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/gdp-per-capita
Definite progress since 1987 with hiccups from global recession like 1991-1992. and yes I studied Russian history under Peter Viereck.
Poe Larity
@HumboldtBlue:
Well, it’s a real solution, but turning Ukraine into Putin’s Afganistan or Vietnam is going to be a long butcher bill.
Sebastian
Oh boy! Not really what anyone wanted to hear but here we are.
Great post, Adam. BJ is probably one of the best informed communities out there. I wonder if DOD and State are reading us, too.
A few thoughts about the various assessments and reports coming in from all over Russia.
Trains are transporting 20 and 30 year old busses, civilian trucks, and fuel cisterns. Where is all the Russian hardware?
One of the threads mentions that Russians are now recruiting from the non-Russian ethnicities. This matches our conversations about Russia’s terrible demographics for 16-32 year olds.
The actions above are useful and necessary for defending against an invasion, for conducting an invasion they are laughably useless, reinforcing the assessment that Putin simply does not understand how large scale military operations work.
That 1,000lbs bomb looks like something from the 50ies. A few days ago, when Vova locked all the oligarchs in the missile bunker so no one could get out, and they discussed the situation, it was allegedly confirmed that they have barely any PGM left and that manufacturing new ones would take months. That was before the crippling sanctions hit. We heard yesterday they are out of Kalibr cruise missiles soon. What else are they out of?
They are now checking if all 16 year olds are registered for conscription and if not, investigating why. Does he want to send 16 year olds in clapped out BMPs against veteran Ukrainian troops swimming in NLAWs?
Ukraine needs a way to eliminate Russian artillery and they need it sooner rather than later.
terry chay
@marklar: He already has, hence the bombing of civilian targets. This is only hardening Ukraine’s defense, and gaining more support and synergy from and within the West (Europe will rise as a military power which will allow the U.S. to eventually be able to refocus assets in the Pacific to counter China), and putting his allies/neutral countries in an increasingly untenable position (Syria, Chechnya, and Belarus will likely fall; China, India, and Israel are going to lose face and influence).
That behavior will continue escalate and, in many ways, he has become predictable.
You are concerned he will go nuclear (I mean this beyond a dirty bomb/another Chernobyl), of course, but there is no evidence of this other than the physical distancing of his own advisors (and others) post-COVID. In other ways, he has behaved rationally, though stupid, because he created a system where everything flows through him so everyone was telling him what he wanted to hear.
Garbage In, Garbage Out. Invade Ukraine.
It is disgusting that how many millions will die and suffer because of this, but, as the front pager has been quick to point out. Putin has been waging this war for 14 years, and we’ve only just become aware of this in a real way in the last month.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
Belarus’ rail network was knocked out a week ago by “hackers”
Chacal Charles Caltrop
@Chetan Murthy: you know, I bet this is exactly what happened.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: Genuinely curious what you think the outcome will be. Is this what you alluded to when you said that the West will need to make a choice?
Adam L Silverman
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: That was a joke.
Jinchi
I think that’s almost right. He clearly doesn’t give a damn about individuals – not even his own soldiers. But I do think he has some fantasy about a wider, ethnically ‘Russian’ people and a desire to unite them under his control.
Mike in DC
@Sebastian:
Getting the ex-Warsaw Pact weaponry held by E.Europe NATO members should happen first, including the Migs. Then counterbattery radar and more artillery. If they shut down the airspace and silence the artillery, the next step is either encircling the enemy or pushing them out of the country.
Chetan Murthy
@Ruckus:
I don’t think he gives a damn about the Russian people either, except as subjects, at his command. And I do think he wants Ukrainians (and Belarusians) for that, too. Because (from what I’ve read over at Window on Eurasia) the Russian power elite really does think they’re facing a Great Replacement by Central Asians, and their idea for how to stop it is to gather back in the other Russian peoples (White Russia, Little Russia) to Mother Russia.
Of course, if he can’t have them willingly, he’ll beat them until they submit. Like every abuser since time immemorial.
Sebastian
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Thanks for sharing. What a fascinating read.
HumboldtBlue
@Poe Larity:
It’s going to be that way anyhow, isn’t it? I just don’t think Putin has the resources to drag this out over 10-20 years, he’s been in Donbas for eight already and whatever he is doing with his units in Ukraine so far has meant death. To his men and sadly, too many Ukrainians.
terry chay
@Jinchi: You mean “5 days, 5 weeks, I doubt 5 months.” ;)
It seems the only people who learned anything from WW2 were the Germans. The victors (U.S., USSR/Russia, and UK) somehow thought themselves immune.
Freemark
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Seems people can’t see it in themselves. Just look at how Israel treats Palestinians. Talk about lack of national self-awareness. Or our Founders writing ‘All men are created equal’ except for slaves of course. Or the current Republican Party.
Ksmiami
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Ah yes the proto Spanish fascists that performed terribly in battle and against guerilla tactics, but then used chemical weapons and committed atrocities against a weaker rival.
Omnes Omnibus
@Freemark: Very few people see themselves as the bad guy. It’s not how we are wired.
BeautifulPlumage
OT: twitter was really weird from midnight EST until about 12:22 am. New security? New algorithms? Seems like it’s now acting normal.
Oops, still loading weird.
karen marie
Fact not in evidence.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
What’s the over under for the Russians to run out of ammo and shells?
Omnes Omnibus
@Sebastian: It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they are already limiting fire missions to conserve ammo.
Citizen Alan
@Ksmiami: I couldn’t help but read this and mentally substitute “Mississippi” for “Russia” in my head.
guachi
@Sebastian: I suspect it’ll be a long time until Russia runs out of ammunition for artillery. That’ll probably be the toughest target for Ukrainian forces. The artillery can pound cities indiscriminately.
terry chay
@karen marie: From the perspective of Putin and Russia, it was “botched.” This is also the main reason he likely invaded Ukraine now, instead of during Trump’s term. The quick collapse after US withdrawal of Afghanistan fed his view that the U.S. (and therefore NATO) was weak militarily and all that training the Ukrainian Army was doing to modernize their military after the losses in 2014 wasn’t worth squat.
@guachi: I wonder if this (so much conventional artillery) and the 500/1000lb bombs implies that they’ve nearly run out of rockets (rocket artillery fires so much, it must be a logistical nightmare to supply so far from their railyards)? I take it as given that they’ve definitely run out of “precision guided munitions.”
Omnes Omnibus
@guachi: It’s not that the ammo doesn’t exist. The question is whether the Russians can get it to the guns quickly enough. It has to come up the same roads as the fuel, etc.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
I wouldn’t be surprised if they thought they would never need this much ammo and didn’t restock what they used in Chechnya and Syria and in exercises. Or they did “restock” but the funds were diverted and so they actually have nothing left but some leftover 1,000lbs bombs from the Korea War.
It is mind-boggling that this scenario has a non-zero probability of being true.
normal liberal
@Butter Emails!:
@Ksmiami: I briefly studied Russian history with Viereck, too. Not for long, though.
Sebastian
@guachi:
Yes, you would think, right? But don’t artillery shells have an expiration date, too? You have to store it somewhere, too.
Also, it has value and over the decades it might have been sold (exports) and never restocked.
I am not claiming it is the case, it’s at best a hilarious edge scenario but given the slapstick so far I am not sure how far out it actually is, you know?
Another Scott
A good thread on how the US has supported Ukraine since 2014:
(via Oryx…)
prostratedragon
@terry chay: Not sure I see the connection. Especially since Putin’s problem at the moment is not NATO the military alliance, but NATO the political co-ordinator. Of course, he failed to see that the latter was possible, but why would the military situation in Afghanistan be the reason for that?
Omnes Omnibus
@Sebastian: The projectiles themselves can be just fine for a long long time. Propellant, though, has a more limited shelf life.
Chetan Murthy
@prostratedragon: I think what terry is saying is that one conclusion you could draw from the way the AFG govt fell down so fast after the US pulled out, is that when we “help” governments, they don’t actually stand independently. So unless the US intervened with boots-on-the-ground, the UA govt would also fall, like a house of cards. Like the AFG govt did.
It’s a reasonable inference one might make, except that to make it, you’d have to not actually investigate thoroughly. Which ….. well, y’know, when you have to give the same answer no matter what to Vladi (“yes boss, they’re riven thru with holes, ready to topple!”) why would you investigate?
Maybe that’s what terry meant.
Carlo Graziani
@Sebastian: it’s not crazy. The Russian timetable is obviously down the toilet. Based on the unreality of the early planning (seizing Kiev by airborne coup-de-main on Day 2) it’s clear that the staff planning was based on an unhealthy dose of self-delusion about lack of resistance and low effectiveness of Ukrainian forces (and equally delusional about combat readiness of Russian forces for large operation for which they had never really trained).
This is not the Soviet army. The Russian state, unlike the Soviet state, does not operate it’s economy on the basis of perpetual near war mobilization, and cannot generate even a fraction of the combat power that the Soviet State could in its time. Their army is reckoned to be roughly equivalent to Turkey’s (excluding it’s nuclear component).
All of which is to say, there is every reason to expect that they’ve shot their bolt. There aren’t any echelons following the invasion force: they brought what they had. Trained replacements are going to be a problem. They may not have that much more equipment either, or the means to move it. Ammo and fuel may be a different matter (cheaper, more abundant and available), but they are not known for their logistical acumen, so getting it to the front in a timely matter may be a real problem.
It must look horrifying from the general staff perspective. They planned for a blitz/walkover. They have a quagmire.
Jay
@HumboldtBlue:
NATO Members also sent many training missions, to Ukraine, independently, ( but coordinated) to train up the Ukraine military to NATO standards,
From Command and Control down to the platoon level, while also helping weed out corruption, (logistics to “ghost soldiers).
From the political level to the military level, Ukraine embraced this training.
trollhattan
@dmsilev:
Ice cream it is terrific, almost as though Baskins and Robbins added second Robbins! Can I have ceasefire now, thanks?
Mallard Filmore
@Sebastian:
I would love to know if that is why it did not explode.
marcopolo
Hey folks, quick note before I hit the sack. No one’s mentioned it but I’ve been seeing reports of smaller towns/villages/other places in southern/eastern Ukraine being liberated by Ukrainian forces over the last 24-48 hours. For example, this tweet from Alexander Vindman (go to his twitter feed if you want to see it, every time I directly link a tweet the BJ moderation gods smite me):
This was the one area in Ukraine where the Russians seemed to be making slow but steady progress. Let’s hope that’s now come to an end and that these forces are now facing the same logistics/morale/equipment issues that the rest of the Russian army is experiencing.
And good night.
Kent
Israel can decide if it wants be further isolated from the west or not. But I’m not sure Ukraine really needs Israeli help one way or the other.
Villago Delenda Est
@Lyrebird: Most likely, yes. I don’t think the Russians have any artillery within range of Lviv, and haven’t seen any reports of ballistic missiles being launched…probably because they might be taken for nuclear warhead equipped ballistic missiles, and that of course would be very destabilizing. To say the least.
prostratedragon
@Chetan Murthy: Well, he did say “militarily.” That would make it a case of trying to do something by military means that cannot be done that way, given the same kind of unco-operation from most of the people of that country that Putin is running into in Ukraine. Our “botch” in Afghanistan happened years ago, and it would be telling if a Russian leader apparently could not see that.
terry chay
@Chetan Murthy: Yes, something like that. Actually I was reading analysis of the “why did Putin invade Ukraine now, why not earlier?” and the two main factors seem to have been:
I don’t want to presuppose what it is about (2) that influenced Putin (though yours seems as accurate as any if there is a single conclusion he drew), but that from the perspective of Putin and his “advisors”, that withdrawal was “botched.” The the “botching” of that influenced what he thought of what would happen in Ukraine when he invaded.
HumboldtBlue
@Jay:
They did and it’s paying off. I also wonder how many, if any, Russian officers/NCOs are willing to go to the ultimate for Putin.
Nuclear war? For Putin?
I wonder just how many are willing to go that far.
Kent
I can’t conceive that there would be any rational Russian argument for using nukes, even inside Ukraine.
Game plan out what would happen next. The international fallout (figurately) would be immense and Russia would instantly become radioactive so to speak for all but its most loyal allies. China would probably walk away. Israel certainly would. Russia would instantly become twice as isolated on the planet as they are now.
There is no possible end game that works for Russia after firing nukes on Ukraine.
What we do know from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and so forth is that unwinnable wars can stay wars far longer than anyone would believe or expect. The Russians can easily draw back and consolidate whatever gains they have and just hold them forever. The southern coast of Ukraine and the land passage to Crimea. Whatever parts of eastern Ukraine that they might capture if they turned away from Kyiv and made an effort in that direction. They could probably cut the country in half and create an east and west Ukraine and then just hunker down indefinitely and wait for western sanctions to slowly crumble away. Then run out all pro-western Ukrainians from eastern Ukraine through ethnic cleansing, throw up a puppet dictator to run eastern Ukraine and declare mission accomplished.
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
“For the last time Vlad, you do NOT get a pair of OG Air Jordans, now fuck off.”
marcopolo
@Villago Delenda Est: Yesterday Russia hit an airport about a third of the way from Kyiv to Lviv (Vinnytsia) with 7 or 8 PGMs. Destroyed the facility which was probably one of the few places the Ukrainian AF still had to fly their remaining planes from.
So they still have a few but hopefully not a lot.
Kent
Plus while Ukraine, a nation of 44 million can throw every last soldier and piece of equipment into this struggle as they face zero threats or enemies in any other direction, Russia has borders on all sides with simmering conflicts or geopolitical reasons that require they maintain troops and equipment. From Finland and the Baltic all they way across through central Asia. They simply can’t mobilize even half their forces to assist in Ukraine without opening up yawning gaps everywhere else. And even if they wanted to they likely lack the logistics. They can certainly ship troops across the country to join the fight, but with what equipment and logistics?
Jinchi
I imagine Putin saw the leaders of Afghanistan fleeing for the exits weeks before the Americans and assumed the Ukrainian pols would do the same.
Ken
@Jinchi: Someday it may be revealed that the Afghanistan withdrawal was all a coordinated disinfo campaign directed against Putin and the Russians. But I doubt it.
Jinchi
That would be quite the long-game on Biden’s part.
Chetan Murthy
@Ken: When was the last time (before UA) that the US actually succeeded in helping a country stand up ? Not AFG, not Iraq, not Vietnam. I guess, South Korea. That’s a long time ago, eh? Maybe Putin looked at that record of failure, and just figured “the US/NATO isn’t very good at this”. Of course, the US did a good job with Iraqi Kurdistan, but he probably overlooked that.
Kent
Not even remotely true.
patrick II
@prostratedragon:
Invading during the Trump administration would have hurt Trump’s re-election chances. Four more years of Trump have meant further weakening of NATO, if not the absence entirely of the U. S. There would not be the well organized support NATO has been giving the Ukrainian military from training to remarkably effective weapons. This would be a different war.
HumboldtBlue
@Kent:
My ignorance of Russia and it’s ethnic and social breakdown could not be more complete, but man, looking at the details on a series of maps is a quick primer on what I think of as “Russia” is woefully inaccurate.
Jay
@marcopolo:
and yet, the Ukrainian Airforce is still flying, striking columns and shooting down Russian Airforce aircraft, a record number today alone, (Open Source Confirmed),
NATO doctrine is ARM’s to take out the Air Defences, search radars, and airport C and C radars,
then crater the runways for a few days with specialized cluster munitions, ( they don’t all go off at once, so you have to either send out specialized Bomb Disposal Units, or wait 48-36 hours before sending out the repair crews).
Airports, especially military ones, are large vast spaces, with bunkers, hardened shelters and buildings scattered over a very large area, with redundancies. Taking one out for any length of time takes a lot of sorties over a fair amount of time, and if the target is resilient, you have to do it all over again, a few days later.
Villago Delenda Est
@marcopolo: Good info. Apparently the attack came from the Russian Navy off the southern coast. I’ll bet the AWACS are tracking all this stuff but haven’t released information on it, due to the obvious operational implications of doing so.
Villago Delenda Est
I’m not up on Ukrainian order of battle, so I don’t know if their artillery has any real counter-battery capability, but that’s something NATO might have trained them up on. Counter-battery fire, as Omnes our crack redleg will tell you, is a pretty difficult operation without forward observers or counter-battery radar, and I have no idea if that capability is available to Ukraine. Without that, you need air power or a break in the front lines to get to the artillery to engage it with tanks or infantry, which right now is a bit beyond Ukraine’s capabilities, although they have staged some impressive counter-offensives and retaken cities.
prostratedragon
@patrick II: True, true. But it still does not make what Putin actually has done here any more soundly based, considering the whole picture and including the fact that Ukraine’s government is not the kind of U.S. client that most of those others were. And one could say that maybe the U.S. being unencumbered by Afghanistan has made its co-ordinating role easier.
Jay
@Kent:
I don’t think so.
The DPR and LPR, with the backing of Russian cross border artillery, and FSB, Wagner and “Little Green Men” backing, had been trying to push past the Minsk II lines near Mariupol, for close to 6 years, with no success. In the meantime, the FSB “neutralized”, through assassinations and “retirements”, many of the most “successful” DPR and LPR commanders and their “gangs”, to try to create a unified, rigid, military, political and economic structure.
And over that time, Ukrainians took special bus convoys from Crimea, the DPR and LPR, to travel to “free” Ukrainian cities, to pick up their pension checks, get basic medical care, buy staples and prescriptions, then head home.
Now, Ukraine has severed roads, rail lines, utilities to those areas, as best they can and Russia is being bled out on the ground and economically.
A Ukrainian pension, shopping mall, hospital, pharmacy, isn’t going to do much good for inhabitants in the Crimea, the DPR and LPR.
Russia could have held those areas at little cost, but now they are all in and the costs, when the tide turns, will be extreme.
HumboldtBlue
Neurosis is the inability to tolerate ambiguity. Sigmund Freud
Calouste
Whether Putin is rational or not, at all one point there is no difference to the outcome whether you feed good data into an irrational decision process or bad data into a rational decision process. You can keep hoping in the latter case that there will eventually be good data as an input, but we don’t know if that is going to happen.
Anne Laurie
Not in the 1980s, according to Slava Malamud. He’s tweeted (before this ‘incursion’ started) that his Soviet schoolbooks, when they couldn’t avoid the Holocaust altogether, insisted it was another ‘Jewish myth’ intended to leach sympathy from the noble, deserving Slavs.
The mid-to-upper-level bureaucrats now in charge of running Russia, if I’m doing the math correctly, would be the people who grew up being taught this.
(Of course Mr. Malamud, before becoming a refugee to America at age 17, was a Jewish kid growing up in Transnitria, IIRC.)
Jay
@Villago Delenda Est:
early on, the US supplied counterbattery radars and computers to the Ukrainian Army, (2014?, before Illovask). Anti-mortar systems, (3) effective against small to huge (Soviet Nona’s) systems, providing notice and position seconds after the shells cleared the horizon. All three were captured at Illovask, 2 had never been taken out of their cases and deployed.
Of course, they are in Russia now.
In the first Russian invasion, Ukrainian artillery was decimated. Russian spotting drones, hacked and jammed coms, hacked targeting software, poor field security, poor logistics, lousy entrenchment, limited mobility.
I remember a case, during the first invasion , where a battery was destroyed. Bunkers of ammo, (120mm) were set within 20 feet of the guns, just crude timber bunkers, the guns were “protected” by a 2 layer wall, 3 feet high of sandbags, open at the rear, and their position was “marked”, by an easily seen layer of trash, ( plastic bags of all colours, empty ammo crates, food tins, empty bottles, other human trash including tp), extending out 100 yards from the sandbags. And of course, they had been sited in and open field with their support vehicles with in 100 yards.
The only thing they got “right”, was a reverse slope siting, such as it was, maybe 30 feet.
Ukrainian artillery got decimated in the first Russian invasion, then under Minsk II, they “parked” most of it under OSCE observation, which kinda limits training, while Russia and their proxies ignored Minsk 11.
Haven’t heard anything good about Ukrainian artillery, haven’t heard anything bad either. As most of it was Soviet, ( truck towed), if it’s been improved in tech, tactics and doctrine, I would guess that it’s “slow” to get into the fight.
SectionH
Thanks again. I may have not read all your post yet, but if Ukraine is still holding: GOOD. Our son tonight texted me about our Ukrainian fan friends we knew back in the day, I admitted we’ve lost touch, but yes we figured out their names and esp. the guy Mr S and I drove a couple of thousand miles across the US. Then. And here I was just hoping to sleep tonight. And then I remembered our Russian fan friends. And I just got more and more pissed off thinking about Putaine, which is not fair to sex workers as a pejorative, and I’m not sure about the -e, but anyway…) And playing Tom Lehrer a lot.
Sebastian
I am off to bed, a big week is coming, but I will leave you all with this tasty treat here. I have only watched parts of it but what I have seen so far is sublime.
A University lecture by Colonel Martti J. Kari, Finnish Defense Intelligence Agency, Retired, about how Russians think and why they do what they do. One hour. It’s in Finnish with English subtitles.
Caterina.net has cliff notes of the lecture here.
SectionH
@Sebastian: Went there. Saving the link. TY
and the other one.
Ryan
“Pentagon says it cannot corroborate any reports of cluster munitions or thermobaric weapons in U.S.”
Hmmm. Pretty sure these weapons have not been used recently in the US.
lowtechcyclist
The problem with Kozyrev’s assessment is that there’s crazy shit in each of his supporting bullet points about the things that Putin believes that make his conduct rational. And a fair amount of that crazy shit he apparently believes is his own regime’s propaganda. If you start believe the same shit you’re throwing at the other side and/or your own people to make them more pliable, then it’s just a matter of time for you.
Some of this shit made me think of Kavanaugh’s unhinged rant that the Clintons were behind a conspiracy to deny him a seat on the Supreme Court. (I still can’t believe that rant didn’t deep-six his nomination, but the GOP’s in a weird place now. But I digress.) If Putin’s rational based on believing crazy shit X, Y, and Z, so he’s not likely to use nukes, how about if he also believes crazy shit U, V, and W that make nukes rational? That’s the problem.
lowtechcyclist
To me, the unanswered questions are: if we get Ukraine some of those Mig-29s from Poland, Bulgaria, etc., how much will that change the situation? And if having them will reduce Russia’s ability to bomb the shit out of their cities, what’s the prospective timeline on getting Ukrainian pilots into those planes?
That’s been the obvious next move for several days now.
zhena gogolia
@Kattails: Thank you.
Geminid
@Kent: Israel is not particulary isolated from the world. Lately, it’s really more the opposite. IIsrael’s relations with EU countries, by far Ibiggest trading partners, are good. And in recent months one or more of the the Israeli President, Prime Minister, Defense Secretary, or Foreign Minister have been warmly hosted by Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco, Egypt and Jordan. The first three countries never even had any formal relations with Israel until two years ago, while Egypt and Jordan relations with Israel were cool but warmed up considerably once Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was replaced.
Turkish President Erdogon has invited Israeli President to visit Ankara, although right now the date is not set. Last month Israeli naval vessels participated alongside Arab ships in maritime exercises under the auspices of U.S. Central Command, which not long ago would have been unthinkable.
This war will not alter any of the above. Many of the Arab countries in Israel’s neighborhood (and China for that matter) have shared Israel’s equivocal stance on the conflict. The US and other Nato countries seem to be tolerating the stances of all these countries, and they consulted with the Israeli Prime Minister before and after his recent trip to Moscow. German Defense Minister Scholz visited Jerusalem last week, and the Israel Foreign Minister will be conferring today in Latvia (or Estonia?) with Secretary of State Blinken. Reuters says the two will discuss both the Ukraine war and the Iran nuclear agreement.
debbie
Adam mentioned Kherson. Here’s an update:
Hopefully, that stings a bit.
Geminid
@debbie: Beyond the fate of it’s populace, Kherson has real strategic value. The Russians hope to use it as a base of operations that could support attacks up the Dneiper River. Their navy has warships capable of navigating the River, and it would support cargo craft as well. The river is a pathway to Kyiv from the south and separates eastern and western Ukraine, so control of it could be crucial. Although, at this point I don’t see the Russians getting control of much of the Dneiper.
zhena gogolia
@HumboldtBlue: One thing I almost never see discussed here is that “Russia” includes a huge number of ethnic minorities — and a lot of them are who I see in these “captured soldier” videos. The fascists tend to be ethnic Russians, I think (although don’t quote me on that, I’m not a sociologist).
trnc
Safe to assume (and maybe it’s been explicitly stated) that one of the worries about any NATO member getting involved directly by way of troops, no fly zone, etc is that Russia will treat military action by any NATO member as military action from NATO itself, and will respond with air strikes and bombing in Latvia and Lithuania? Maybe even Finland for being under NATO consideration?
trnc
I mentioned to my wife a couple of nights ago the contrast between the outcomes of US military training of Afghan soldiers and Ukrainian soldiers. Seems like Russia would have picked up on that in the last couple of years.
Geminid
@zhena gogolia: I wonder how distinct the “Volga Germans” are to Slavic Russians now. Do you have any idea?
A lot of Volga Germans emigrated to North America. I was interested to see that Lawrence Welk was of Volga German descent. So was Tom Daschle.
debbie
@trnc:
Putin would consider anything an act of war. That’s what a subterfuge is.
The Pale Scot
A..yep
Peale
@Ryan: Its possible that this whole affair is a cover-up. Those images of Ukraine we’re seeing are really Biden bombing Kansas City into submission. The press is covering for him, as usual.
bjacques
@Geminid: I did not know that.
A-wunnerful, a-wunnerful…turn off the bubble machine…
Geminid
@bjacques: Also, John Deutschendorf Jr. was of Volga German descendant. He was better known as John Denver.
Steve in the ATL
@SectionH: putain, no e on the end.
Yes, Balloon Juicers, that’s the Steve in the ATL value add!
Miss Bianca
@Cameron: And just what do you think a “reasonable compromise” would be? I agree with Adam that Putin’s endgame here seems to be, “if I can’t have Ukraine, *no one* can have Ukraine”. I don’t see that as a position that can be reasoned with.
Nettoyeur
@Chetan Murthy: Victory on Russian is pobyeda, so no. Goal in Russia is tsel’ which comes from German Ziel. Now there’s something.
s
Nettoyeur
@Ksmiami: crash their economy and wait 12 years, the half life of the tritium in bombs. Also, the chemical explosives degrade on that time scale. Nukes are not maintenance free .
Nettoyeur
@Ksmiami: crash their economy and wait 12 years, the half life of the tritium in bombs. Also, the chemical explosives degrade on that time scale. Nukes are not maintenance free .
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: Obligatory. Never gets old.
trnc
Thanks, but that’s understood, so that isn’t the question. The question is about his specific targets when he responds. IOW, if the US attacks, he’s not going to lob missiles at the US, right? He’ll lob missiles at the closest and easiest NATO members. IE, in Putin’s mind, any NATO member involvement means he can respond by attacking any NATO member.
The point is, I’ve seen more and more pressure and requests for the US to get directly involved, and some people seem to believe that Ukraine and Russia will be the only war zones. IMHO, some of them are not considering what the consequences will be for NATO members closer to Russia, especially the small ones like Latvia and Lithuania.
Chief Oshkosh
@HumboldtBlue: Interesting read. Agree with her that the US may be over-emphasizing risk-to-benefit ratio. However, I disagree that the situations in which European nations and industry players (e.g., MC/Visa, the airlines, MS, etc.) are leading the way in sanctions and that some European nations are leading the way with military aid are somehow leaving the US in the dust. It seems likely, and has been reported as such, that the US, and Biden specifically, has been working behind the scenes to allow Europeans to lead as part of a re-strengthened coalition. I’m less clear on the role of Biden/US in decisions made by US corporations, but possibly that’s just ignorance on my part.
LadySuzy
@trnc: On the other hand, I think that Putin is very well aware of NATO’s military superiority. Would he dare, really ? As for nuclear weapons, he’s not the one in Russia who would physically push the button. And there’s now a hot-line between the US military and their Russians counterpart.
I find it intriguing that even if the West is arming the Ukrainians Putin hasn’t launched any significant cyberattack yet, which would be his logical next step. Is it coming? Or he is afraid of a counterattack ? Does that indicates that all his threats are just empty threats ? And has he realized in the last two weeks that he completely overestimated the strength of his Army ?
Because if it is the case, maybe the US and Europeans should revise their risk calculus. Establish at least a partial no-fly zone for “humanitarian reasons”.
Bullies understand only one thing: force.
Last thing: while there are big risks in directly fighting a monster like Putin , there are also big risks and long term consequences in 1) letting him gain ground in Europe and 2) letting the whole World know that nuclear weapons, and bullying others, is now the way to go.
trnc
@LadySuzy: All fair questions, and I get the part about bullying, but if his threats are NOT empty, this can get worse fast. Given that, the next best thing to putting the bully on the ground is neutralizing him and alienating him from his friends.
There seems to be widespread agreement that the sanctions will cripple Russia. I would expect that to factor into other empire seekers’ calculus. If it’s true that the Russian military is already crap due to incompetence and corruption, what will it look like after a year of sanctions?
way2blue
@dmsilev: My father worked for Pan American Airlines. After he retired, he & my mom decided to visit the Soviet Union. This would have been in the 1980s. He loved ice cream, saw an ice cream shop while on tour—popped in to buy a cone. And the frightened staff refused to serve him…
smedley the uncertain
@Jinchi: Somewhere in the Thread this am is a picture of an unexploded 500Kg Bomb lying in a Ukraine street. No time to locate the pic, sorry.
LadySuzy
@trnc: No question the sanctions will hurt Russia a lot. However, and I understand the rationale, there have been no sanctions against Russian gas and oil. And when it comes to the sanctions that have been already implemented, I worry the Chinese will come to the rescue, and help softening the blow.
terry chay
@LadySuzy: Those are valid concerns. But here are some counterpoints.
Overall, I’d be more worried about the West not making those sanctions leak-proof locally (e.g. closing all the financial holes we’ve put in the system over the last 30 years), than whether or not Russian oil or China doing anything is going to move the needle much.