Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

So many bastards, so little time.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

In my day, never was longer.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Update 22: Putin Ups the Ante On Committing War Crimes

War for Ukraine Update 22: Putin Ups the Ante On Committing War Crimes

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(The Mariupol Peace Bell. Click here for more.)

Just a quick note before we get started. Since the site is behaving funky, especially when tweets are embedded, I’m going to link to tweets rather than embed them in the post. With the exception of a few that have video that I think needs to be highlighted and seen, as well as one or two others that don’t. I will insert the images from some of the tweets I link to with attribution back to the tweet I got it from. The plan is to keep the post as tweet free as possible to minimize problems with the site and the post loading.

I want to start tonight with two items for analysis. Both are follow ups from last night’s post. Last night I wrote about how some commenters and analysts, both with and without national security experience, were taking President’s Zelenskyy’s statement about Ukraine not joining NATO as a sign that he was providing a face saving way out for Putin in negotiations between the Ukrainians and the Russians. I argued that this was most likely not the case. Shortly after today’s round of negotiations between the Ukrainians and the Russians was concluded, The Financial Times reported that Ukraine and Russia had created a preliminary fifteen point draft of a peace plan that included Ukraine remaining neutral once the war concludes. This was immediately amplified by ABC’s Moscow correspondent on his twitter feed. From there it was picked up and led to many of the folks I was referring to in yesterday’s update highlighting it as confirmation that their predictions and analysis were in fact correct.

Their predictions and analysis were in fact NOT CORRECT!!!!

I’m putting the jump in early, more after it!

Eight hours later, President Zelenskyy’s senior staff set everyone straight.

All Ukraine wants from Russia at this point is to negotiate a ceasefire, which will stop the fighting, get Russian troops off of Ukrainian soil, and then it wants firm, binding security guarantees from “a number of countries”. You can read number of countries as the US, the UK, and the EU member states. Russia is doing what Russia always does. It is using the negotiations to drag things out diplomatically to make itself look like it is operating in good faith, when it, in fact, has no actual intention to stop whatever it is doing that has led to the call for it to negotiate.

How do we know the Russians have no intention of stopping? We know because while everyone was retweeting the ABC reporter’s thread as evidence that they were right about President’s Zelenskyy’s comments about not joining NATO, Russia was dropping a thousand pounder on Mariupol’s Drama House, which was serving as a shelter for between 1,000 and 1,200 residents of the city who had had their homes destroyed. Why had they had their homes destroyed you ask? The Russians blowed them up real good, which drove them to centralized shelters where they could be targeted even more easily.

Here’s the before and after pictures, which were tweeted out by Ukraine’s Foreign Minister:

The Russians knew damn well what they were targeting! And the reason I know the Russians knew exactly what they were targeting is because the citizens of Mariupol had marked the ground with the Russian word for children in front of and behind the Drama House. Asami Terajima of The Kyiv Independent tweeted out this image showing the markings:

 

 

War for Ukraine Update 22: Putin Ups the Ante On Committing War Crimes 1

Here’s the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement on the bombing:

But wait, there’s more! A couple of hours later the Russians dropped another bomb, also most likely a thousand pounder, on the Neptune Pool in Mariupol. Which, like the Drama House, was being used as a shelter for citizens of Mariupol driven from their homes because the Russians had previously targeted and destroyed those houses and apartment buildings. Video of the aftermath in the tweet below:

What else were the Russians doing today while not negotiating in good faith? They were pulling forces out of their illegally seized territories in Georgia and sending them to Ukraine!

There’s video embedded in each of the subsequent tweets, so click across if you want to see them. Here’s what the rest of the thread says:

  • Russian units from the 58th Army based in so-called South Ossetia reportedly left the region for Ukraine. However, the direction of movements is unclear.
  • “Our guys are sent to Ukraine to finish off the Nazis who are terrorizing their people,” – Eduard Kokoity, the former de facto President of “South Ossetia” wrote on his Telegram channel.
  • A Russian military convoy from Tskhinvali Region was spotted on the Transcaucasian highway near Alagir.
  • More footage of Tskhinvali-based Russian military column.

Putin and Russia are not negotiating in good faith. They never do. Zelenskyy and Ukraine are not trying to come up with a face saving way for Putin to get out of the predicament he’s gotten himself into. Don’t fall for this!

But wait, there’s even more! Putin decided to give a short televised address that everyone seems to think is an indicator that he’s lost the plot. I found a version where a native Russian speaker who speaks English added English subtitles:

My take is that he was yanking the chains of the oligarchs. Nevzlin renounced his Russian citizenship a couple of days ago as he fled to Israel. Abramovich is in the wind. He was last seen in the VIP lounge of the private jet portion of Ben Gurion airport. I’ve heard squat about Blavatsky, but he and his entire family live in the US and have American citizenship. Firtash is still under house arrest in Vienna. Deripaska made a distancing statement last week, as did Fridman. Progozhin is completely silent, but Wagner is in Ukraine fighting with Russian military forces, so that answers that question. He’s reminding these people of who protects them and they all know what happens if he stops extending that protection to them. Additionally, he hit the dog howls that needed to be referenced for his propagandize citizenry. A lot of the oligarchs are at least nominally Jewish or of partial Jewish descent. Most all the ones I referenced above are. So using the language of cosmopolitanism, which was first used as an anti-Semitic slur by Stalin, makes sure that everyone knows who he’s talking about. You’ll also have noted he hit the anti-LGBTQ+ theme pretty hard too!

The second thing I want to touch on is a question asked last night in the comments by oldster:

What is your answer to the argument that Biden’s greatest obligation is to avoid WWI and WWIII, ie either a Guns of August scenario or a full-on nuclear exchange?

I don’t know if that is his greatest obligation, but I think that is certainly the strategic space, if you will, that he is trying to safely navigate through.

On to the update part of the update. We know how Mariupol is doing as I put it up top, so we’ve covered that.

This morning (US time) President Zelenskyy addressed a joint session of Congress via video. Congresswoman Taylor Greene, fresh off of a series of thoroughly anti-American, anti-NATO, anti-Ukrainian, and anti-Semitic tweets last night, refused to stand and clap when he was introduced. Senator Manchin was fiddling with his iPad all the way through the speech. Classy!

The address went well and seems to have been well received by almost everyone. The usual suspects – Republican senators and members of Congress who voted against the aid package for Ukraine last week – spent the rest of the day banging the drum for the Biden administration to get it in gear and help Ukraine. Senator Blackburn, bless her heart.

We have confirmation that the US is sending Switchblade drones to Ukraine. And that Britain has already sent Starstreak air defense systems.

LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) – Britain is supplying starstreak anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, defence minister Ben Wallace told the BBC on Wednesday.

“We are supplying them – they will go into theatre,” the BBC quoted Wallace as saying.

Here’s everything the US is sending:

The new U.S. aid includes 800 anti-aircraft systems, including longer-range platforms; 9,000 shoulder-mounted anti-armor missiles to destroy tanks and vehicles; 7,000 machine guns, shotguns, and grenade launchers; and 20 million rounds of ammunition. The latest shipment will also include drones, demonstrating that America is willing to send its “most cutting-edge equipment” to Ukraine, Biden said.

Biden promised to send even more arms and impose more sanctions to cripple the Russian economy and isolate Moscow from the world.

“That’s our goal: make Putin pay the price, weaken his position while strengthening the hand of Ukrainians on the battlefield and at the negotiating table,” he said.

Obligatory:

Shoot, a fellow could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with that stuff.

Ukraine is now on the EU’s energy grid.

Last night, after I put the post up, the Ukrainians hit Russian ground and air assets at the Russian occupied Kherson Airport.

The Melitopol mayor was freed. However, the Russians are scarfing up a lot of other people in the areas of Ukraine that they occupy. Including paramedics.

#RU terrorists have captured our volunteer medic, Yulia Payevskaya, #Taira! A legendary woman who has been at the forefront all these years, saving lives. We must make every effort to free her! War crimes by #Russian beasts R 2be stopped by intl community!

Here’s Mayor Klitschko rhetorically knocking a reporter out!

Your daily bayraktar!

Who is the best Bayraktar? You are!!!!

Finally, here’s four items for you all to read.

The first is a deep dive by Buzzfeed into how Roman Abramovich has been hiding and laundering his dirty money.

Between 2001 and 2016, a secretive network of 10 offshore companies plunged a whopping $1.3 billion into American investment firms and hedge funds.

The money, sent through the high-secrecy jurisdictions of the British Virgin Islands and Cyprus, was difficult to trace. But with the help of confidential banking records, investigators at State Street, one of America’s oldest banks, stumbled upon the identity of the mystery investor: Roman Abramovich, the oligarch famous for his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The investigators reported Abramovich’s investment network in a series of “suspicious activity reports” to the US Treasury Department in 2015 and 2016.

They pointed to court records showing that Abramovich had made “substantial cash payments” in Russia for “political patronage and influence.” And they detailed how the corporate structures of the companies holding the $1.3 billion had frequently changed, which they said could be an attempt to “conceal ownership.”

During the next six years, the US government took no action against Abramovich, and the State Street investigation stayed secret.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Western governments have moved to clamp down on oligarchs with ties to the Kremlin. Last week the United Kingdom sanctioned Abramovich, citing his “close relationship” with Putin and saying that materials from a steel company he controls may have been used to build Russian tanks. The UK froze his assets in the country, including several mansions and the Premier League soccer team Chelsea Football Club.

The US has not made any moves against Abramovich — but that may soon change, a US official told BuzzFeed News. Abramovich is under scrutiny by a new Justice Department–led task force called KleptoCapture, which aims to identify the wealth and freeze the assets of oligarchs who have aided Putin, the official said.

How much of Abramovich’s money made its way into the United States has never been publicly disclosed. The State Street investigation shows that Abramovich had invested as much as 10% of his estimated wealth into funds managed by American financiers.

Much, much, much more at the link.

Here’s an assessment from RUSI explaining why the Ukrainians need to pull their forces out of southern and eastern Ukraine before the bulk of the Ukrainian Army is encircled and cut off. Not sure I’d have had the Seapower subject matter expert be one of the authors…

The war in Ukraine has been dominated by an effective and far-reaching information campaign led by the Ukrainian state. The Ukrainian narrative is dominating both the news and social media cycles, which are now of equal importance in forming public opinion. The narrative is littered with broken Russian convoys, farmers triumphantly towing boutique Russian air defence systems away from their hiding places, and harrowing footage of Russian tank formations being destroyed. And yet, by analysing three maps depicting the operational picture, including one released by the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) and two curated by open-source investigators – the Twitter account Jomini of the West and Konrad Muzyka’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor – it is apparent that Russian forces are making progress.

However, an exclusive focus on cities – though understandable – may obscure more than it reveals. Though it seems clear that the initial Russian plan was based around a swift coup de main against Kyiv while the bulk of the Ukrainian army was pinned in the east opposite Donetsk and Luhansk, this is unlikely to remain the case. Even under best-case assumptions (from a Russian perspective), it is unlikely that Kyiv will be taken soon. However, it is worth considering that there is a second Ukrainian centre of gravity – alluded to by Vladimir Putin in his pledge to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine – the regular Ukrainian army, most of which remains near Donetsk and Luhansk under the aegis of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO).

The position of this force is looking increasingly precarious as Russian forces advance to encircle it on three axes. Russian forces of the 58th Combined Arms Army and 22nd Army, pushing north from Crimea, have commenced assaults on Beryslav along the Dnieper, and appear likely to link up at Polohy with Russian separatist forces and the Eighth Combined Arms Army advancing from Donbas. Elements of the First Guards Tank Army and Sixth Combined Arms Army advancing past Kharkiv also appear to have largely eschewed attempts to take the city – focusing instead on reducing it with artillery while bypassing it as they advance south and west past Poltava, cutting the JFO off from escaping northwards. Finally, in the southwest, Russian forces of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division appear similarly intent on bypassing Mykolaiv but, notably, may not be advancing on Odessa. Instead, they appear to be advancing north, which could suggest a desire to seize the western banks of key crossing points over the Dnieper.

Viewed in conjunction, these advances present a troubling picture whereby the Ukrainian forces opposite Donetsk and Luhansk are at risk of encirclement on the eastern side of the Dnieper. If this is indeed the focus of Russia’s approach, then the emphasis on Russia’s ability to take major cities as a metric of success will have been an analytical error, as Russia appears more intent on pinning Ukrainian forces in cities like Kharkiv while it bypasses them. Indeed, preparations for an amphibious assault on Odessa may have been a feint, given that the ground forces such an assault could have linked up with appear to be moving north.

Much more at the link above. This is, I think, important to keep in mind especially given the much more positive estimates that the US Department of Defense and the British Ministry of Defense keep making about what is going on in Ukraine.

New York’s Intelligencer published a series of war diaries, for lack of a better term, from sixteen Ukrainians born after Ukrainian independence.

February 23

Russian forces surround Ukraine on three sides. The U.S. warns that an invasion is imminent. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares a state of emergency.

Aleksey, 26, a printing manager in Kyiv

I was standing with my friend on the Yurkovytsia Mountain, which overlooks the whole city, and we joked, “Just imagine — bombs are going to fall on Kyiv.”

Viktoriia Khutorna, 24, a television journalist in Kyiv

In the middle of the day, I texted my English teacher. We were supposed to meet, and she said, “I’m sorry. I totally forgot about our lesson.” She had decided to leave Ukraine at the last minute and was on her way to the airport. I said, “Why didn’t you tell me before? I might have planned something else.” So now I had a free evening and nothing to do with it.

I try to stay out of politics. Ever since 2014, when I was worried about my mom, who protested in Maidan Square, I decided not to be involved or to constantly watch the news because it was traumatizing to follow the news and not know what’s happening to my relatives.

Later, I was on the phone with my mother and told her I had a bad feeling. She said, “Don’t worry. It’s crazy to invade Ukraine fully — especially Kyiv.”
I said maybe I should leave for a couple of days. But then I thought, I don’t really have money. So I spent some time watching Inventing Anna on Netflix and learning some English by myself.

Petro Chekal, 20, a student in Kharkiv

On the TV at 5 a.m., Putin announced the beginning of the military operation, just — war. Here is Mitya, my brother, listening. This is a Russian TV channel, and they said it was a rescue mission. My grandparents watch Russian TV all the time, and for the first few days, they couldn’t believe it. And when they finally did believe it, they switched to Ukrainian TV.

Leonid, 19, and Nasta, 21, siblings and sociology students in Kyiv

Leonid: I was anticipating a new video game that was supposed to be released the following day. But I had been sensing that something was going to happen. Two or three weeks prior, there were Russian troops building up along the border and people had started to prepare for the worst. I rarely remember my dreams, but one of those nights, I woke up and told Nasta that I dreamt the war had started.

Nasta: It had such a profound effect on me that I did not sleep for the next two hours, although Leonid fell back asleep almost instantly. But on the 23rd, we both thought we’d have at least two or three more days to prepare.

Daria Holovatenko, 18, a university student in Avdiivka

That day, I was hanging out with a friend at my parents’ café, talking about going to America as part of a work program for students. I really want to visit Los Angeles, maybe work as a hotel receptionist to improve my language skills and learn about the culture. I also got a message from my professor, who suggested I take part in a Chinese-language competition whose winner would go to China. I was so happy to have been chosen.

We saw on the news that Ukraine was declaring a state of emergency and the American warning. Even so, I didn’t think the war was going to happen. None of us believed an invasion was imminent.

Danyil Zadorozhnyi, 26, a poet and journalist in Lviv

My partner, Yulya, and I watched President Zelenskyy make his speech to the Russians that night. I liked it a lot — clear, focused. I thought Putin was bluffing because an invasion seemed stupid. Extremely stupid.

Mariia Shuvalova, 28, a Ph.D. candidate in Kyiv

Very late at night, I got an alert that probably Russia would invade. I was shocked, and I started charging my laptop and power bank but then I thought, No, that is impossible. It’s dumb. It’s just crazy shit. And I went to sleep.

A whole lot more at the link!

And fourth, and finally, The Wall Street Journal takes a deep dive into just how the Russian Army has gotten bogged down in Ukraine.

VOZNESENSK, Ukraine—A Kalashnikov rifle slung over his shoulder, Voznesensk’s funeral director, Mykhailo Sokurenko, spent this Tuesday driving through fields and forests, picking up dead Russian soldiers and taking them to a freezer railway car piled with Russian bodies—the casualties of one of the most comprehensive routs President Vladimir Putin’s forces have suffered since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

A rapid Russian advance into the strategic southern town of 35,000 people, a gateway to a Ukrainian nuclear power station and pathway to attack Odessa from the back, would have showcased the Russian military’s abilities and severed Ukraine’s key communications lines.

More at the link.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

133Comments

  1. 1.

    HumboldtBlue

    You are an awesome dude, Mr. Silverman. Now before I take an hour to read all of this, is there any consensus on the readiness of Russia’s nukes? Or, for that matter, other weapons of mass destruction such as chemical?

  2. 2.

    Ohio Mom

    I did not know that there were any Jewish oligarchs, let alone many. How did that happen? I’m off to google but if you, Adam have a twenty-five words or less version, I’m all ears/eyes.

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    That WSJ article is good; I mentioned it downstairs. Key graf, IMO:

    “Everyone is united against the common enemy,” said Voznesensk’s 32-year-old mayor, Yevheni Velichko, a former real-estate developer turned wartime commander, who, like other local officials, moves around with a gun. “We are defending our own land. We are at home.”

    And as I said earlier today, I really, really wish Biden and the whole government would listen to the Pot Brothers and just shut the fuck up. I wish Russian artillery commanders had learned about the Switchblades in that split-second I assume you get just before you die.

  5. 5.

    Mike E

    Major Kong’s line originally had Dallas as the fun destination, but JFK’s assassination required Slim Pickens to dub in Vegas in post-production.

  6. 6.

    sanjeevs

    Thanks, as always, Adam.

    and then it (Ukraine) wants firm, binding security guarantees from “a number of countries”. You can read number of countries as the US, the UK, and the EU member states.

    Do you think this could work, given I understand Ukraine was given security guarantees by US, UK and France back when the old USSR nuclear weapons on their soil were decommissioned. Would the guarantees somehow be higher level than the old ones.

  7. 7.

    debbie

    Since military has been relocated to Ukraine, is there any chance citizens will rebel in Georgia?

  8. 8.

    Gin & Tonic

    @sanjeevs: The Budapest Memorandum signatories were the US, UK and the Russian Federation

    ETA: And technically they were “assurances” and not “guarantees.”

  9. 9.

    Kalakal

    That RUSI analysis is sobering. I’m wondering what the condition of the ground is for the units heading south to the west of Kharkhiv. If they are moving in column formation due to muddy ground they could themselves end up like the infamous Kyiv convoy.

    Even more sobering are those bombings.

    That’s deliberate mass murder

  12. 12.

    debbie

    @Kalakal:

    I don’t see how this ends if Putin’s still around. There’s no reason to think he wouldn’t pull this all over again.

  13. 13.

    Kalakal

    @debbie: Couldn’t agree more. I’m with Adam on this, the Russians are not negotiating in good faith.

    Putin is never going to just bring his army home and let bygones be bygones

  15. 15.

    Sebastian

    @brendancalling:

    It is obviously wild speculation on my end but a false flag operation is usually just one event. All the recent attempts were really haphazard and comically incompetent.

    Explosions in multiple areas happening around the same time are rather an indicator for enemy action. If Putin was amassing some of his better technology in Belarus in preparation for a decisive blow then this would be a perfect target and a strategic blunder on his part.

    It’s much more difficult to cry foul about an attack in Belarus than on Russian soil.

    “We had a bunch of our attack helicopters and ammo depots blow up in the Belarusian pampa by nefarious NATO spies!” just doesn’t have the ring to it.

  16. 16.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @HumboldtBlue:

    Concerns it’s a Russian false flag to blame Ukraine.

    I know very little about it, yet would bet a fair sum that’s the case

  17. 17.

    Zelma

    Is there a way to read articles in the WSJ without subscribing? I refuse to give Murdoch any more money.

  20. 20.

    Kalakal

    @Sebastian:

    Is there any info on what’s actually been exploded? If it’s real military assets then Putin has a serious problem. Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

  21. 21.

    Suzanne

    Apologies if this has been asked and answered in previous threads, but what is known about Putin’s health?

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    @HumboldtBlue: I think there biological and chemical stuff is good to go, unfortunately. We have to work under the asseumotion that their nukes are too.

  23. 23.

    Martin

    @HumboldtBlue: I think you’d see some action by now. You want to start screaming about it while smoke is still rising. Russia’s usually pretty good at that when they’re blowing up apartments.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @sanjeevs: Hence my use of binding. And that’s just to get to a ceasefire. That’s not the “here’s the terms of your surrender Russia” part, which comes after the war.

  26. 26.

    Gvg

    I have been remembering that mud season isn’t forever. At some point the ground will firm up and the fight will change.

    how are all these arms getting into Ukraine when we can’t get food to the people? I guess it is a harder logistics pipeline?

  27. 27.

    Dangerman

    I’m not a huge boxing fan but I recall Valeri Klitschko looking like a scary MoFo in the ring. Looks like one IRL, too. Let’s get him and Putin in a room and they can “negotiate”.

    That Belarus thing is very interesting.

  28. 28.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gvg: Everything goes into western Ukraine and is distributed from there. The reason food, water, and medical supplies can’t get into the besieged and/ or occupied cities in the south and east of Ukraine is because Russia won’t allow them through.

  32. 32.

    matt

    First off – the gentlemanly ‘bullshit, sorry, where is military target?’ is one of the great all time reactions on film ever. Amazing!

    Second, thank you for these updates, I have donated to Balloon Juice to compensate. You should be in history books for what you are doing here.

  33. 33.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Adam L Silverman: I keep thinking NATO should organize a humanitarian convoy for Mariupol. Tell Russia we are sending 100 trucks of food and water at this time on this road. Either you guarantee its safety or NATO will provide defensive close air support. Force their hand. Act, don’t react.

  35. 35.

    Winston

    Shouldn’t that steel or aluminum factory Moscow Mitch arranged in Louisville be seized and Mitch investigated?

  36. 36.

    VOR

    One of the things the Mueller probe avoided was following the money, looking at Trump Organization finances. I hope this KleptoCapture program takes a look.

  38. 38.

    Carlo Graziani

    The RUSI analysis is a stomach-punch. Dark days — the worst choices for war leaders are between protecting civilian populations and keeping their armed forces in-being.

    Shit.

  40. 40.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Winston: The Rusal plant is dead. The project was canceled in early 2021. I’m sure you’re wondering what was supposed to be delivered, and wasn’t, to have the project continue.

  42. 42.

    Calouste

    So the Kremlin calls Biden calling Putin a war criminal “unforgivable rethoric”, but have they ever said anything about Lindsey Graham calling for Putin’s assassination?

  43. 43.

    Adam L Silverman

    @matt: I’m sure Cole will appreciate the donation.

    Just so we’re clear, I don’t get paid for doing this.

  44. 44.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: Apparently Russia refuses to respond to NATO on the dedicated deconfliction line. I meant to include that in the post and it got lost in the shuffle. This may be one of the reasons Biden and NATO leadership is being so cautious.

  45. 45.

    Winston

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m sure you’re wondering what was supposed to be delivered, and wasn’t, to have the project continue.

    Maybe someone should ask Mitch.

  47. 47.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: David Vitter was the lobbyist on that for Deripaska. It was a three way bribe. Vitter got paid, McConnell got the plant, and McConnell stopped blocking the federal judicial nomination of Vitter’s wife.

  51. 51.

    Another Scott

    @brendancalling: One of the sources of this report seems to be an anti-Lukashenko minister in the Belarus government.

    We state: #Belarus is an occupied territory, #Russia is an occupying country, & Lukashenka's regime is a #puppetgovernment. We call on foreign partners to give an appropriate assessment of the current situation.

    Full statement: https://t.co/IthH9OrkSJ @StateDept @SecBlinken

    — Pavel Latushka (@PavelLatushka) March 16, 2022

    Some are speculating that the noises are sonic booms from aircraft.

    Lots of fog of war stuff, lots of players with lots of agendas.

    Dunno.

    HTH a little.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  60. 60.

    Jay

    ?? says that mayor of Melitopol was released “after a special operation”. Zelensky speaks to him& jokes: “we are happy they took you.. “You seem to have a very lively voice”, he says.Mayor:”Thank you for not dropping me”.Z: “We don’t drop our own”. pic.twitter.com/ciOm6NfQMd— Ani Chkhikvadze (@achkhikvadze) March 16, 2022

  61. 61.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Another Scott:

    an anti-Lukashenko minister in the Belarus government.

    I’m surprised to learn such a person survives, politically or otherwise

  63. 63.

    cain

    @Ohio Mom: There are oligarchs of all stripes and religion.. I’m almost sure there are a couple of Hindu oligarchs.. they all do the same thing -steal from their host country and stock pile it somewhere else.

  64. 64.

    Geoduck

    I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Graham has no one blackmailing him and everything he’s done has been entirely of his own free will.

  65. 65.

    Lyrebird

    @Adam L Silverman: I hope some of your former War College students or coworkers are reading your columns.  People who have some input into how the US responds.  Not saying you or anyone else has 100% of the right answer, because this seems like a situation with all awful choices, but I still hope so.

  66. 66.

    Calouste

    @Another Scott: What I could find is that Pavel Latushko was a minister in Lukashenko’s government about a decade ago, but is now in exile in Poland. He seems to be leading some kind of government in exile, but I don’t know how much support that has.

  67. 67.

    Chetan Murthy

    Education like this is why I feel my money is well-spent, when I sent it to B-J, Adam.  Thank you for this.  For all of it.  And for all you’ve done to educate us, and me, these last seven long years (that I’ve been reading your work here).

  68. 68.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Geoduck: that’s my take, that there’s even less to Lindsey than meets the eye, and if there were anything to compromise him with, it would’ve come out in his quarter century plus on the main stage of US politics. I think he’s a completely hollow man quite simply desperate to, as he puts it, remain relevant

  69. 69.

    PJ

    @Geoduck: ​
      Graham went from being very anti-Trump to being his biggest defender overnight. It’s more of a stretch to think he thought it would boost his political career to do so than to think someone showed him some kompromat.

  70. 70.

    Lyrebird

    @Jay: WOW.

    Here’s another translation from further down:

    — Good evening, Ivan. How are you?

    — I feel much better now.

    — I’m so very glad to hear you. Well… That’s surely the voice of someone who is alive.

    — Thanks. Huge thanks for not abandoning me. Huge thanks for not losing hope

    sleepyderpycat

    @thatkinkycat

    ·
    5h

    — We don’t abandon our people. What are you talking about, bruh?
    — I need a day or two to recover. After that, I’ll be ready to follow any of your orders to bring our victory day closer and raise a Ukrainian flag over Melitiopol again.

    — Well, we can’t promise you TWO days…
    — Ok
    — You’re a young lad. You’ll recover in ONE day.

    ETA: but watch the video anyway.  Pres. Z really cares about this man.  And he’s taking the time to joke and cheer him up.  Phenomenal.

  72. 72.

    Rocks

    @Winston: Didn’t it turn out that the Kentucky teacher’s pension fund, which was already in woeful shape, lose their entire $13,000,000 investment in Russia’s largest bank?  They were the second biggest investor.  I wonder how that investment got made, the size of the finders fee, and who it got paid to.

  73. 73.

    Splitting Image

    @PJ:

    Graham went from being very anti-Drumpf to being his biggest defender overnight. It’s more of a stretch to think he thought it would boost his political career to do so than to think someone showed him some kompromat.

    I think you’re still operating under the paradigm that Republicans have some kind of principles to betray. Newt Gingrich once told the news media that anybody who quoted him saying something he said three days previously was slandering him.

    Lindsey Graham doesn’t have enough of a spine to be an invertebrate.

  74. 74.

    Carlo Graziani

    @PJ:

    “Last Man Standing” seems to be the name of the game.

    As cold as it seems, I think the UKR Army in the South needs to keep itself in being, even if it means uncovering those cities. For the sake of killing more Russians. Until they collapse.

    I’d hate to be Zelenskyy right now, though. Shit.

  75. 75.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @PJ: Paul Ryan called trump a textbook racist, and told his members to distance themselves from trump after the Access Hollywood tape. Then trump surprised Ryan, and Graham, and himself, by winning the White House. Some eight months later, Ryan was fawningly praising trump’s magnificent leadership after they passed tax cuts. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker… we could go on. I hate to say anything that could possibly be construed as positive about Mitch McConnell, who made himself trump’s primary protector, but he never bothered to pretend to have anything but contempt for The Beast. All he needed, or cared about, was a pen at the Resolute desk

    ETA: And on topic: all of this is relevant because all of those assholes were in what was at least a passive alliance with Putin from 2016 on. Some might go so far as to say they whored the US Presidency to him, and Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and Coney-Barrett were the money Putin left on the dresser.

  81. 81.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
    I agree we must operate under that assumption, but given that it appears that most of the “modernization” resources for the conventional army and air force were used to build super yachts that are now in Italian, Spanish, French and German custody (or, as in the case of one, unable to leave Norway because no one will provide fuel to it) I think it’s important to ascertain just what the true readiness status of the Strategic Rocket Forces and the SLBM fleet really is.

  83. 83.

    Jay

    BREAKING: The US embassy in Kyiv says Russian forces have shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, following the emergence of graphic footage of the aftermath earlier today.— Conflict News (@Conflicts) March 16, 2022

  84. 84.

    Jay

    New: US & NATO allies are sending several surface-to-air missiles systems to Ukraine. A senior US official tells me these systems include Soviet-era SA-8, SA-10, SA-12 and SA-14 mobile air defense systems, w/range higher than Stingers, giving capability to hit cruise missiles.— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) March 16, 2022

  88. 88.

    Kent

    @Rocks: @Winston: Didn’t it turn out that the Kentucky teacher’s pension fund, which was already in woeful shape, lose their entire $13,000,000 investment in Russia’s largest bank?  They were the second biggest investor.  I wonder how that investment got made, the size of the finders fee, and who it got paid to.

    There should be a paper trail.  No bureaucracy invests that amount of money without people signing off.

  89. 89.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Kent: I could be forgetting, but IIRC, they …. divested “in the nick of time” and got most of their $$ out.  Gosh who knew it was the right moment to get out of those shares ….

  90. 90.

    Calouste

    Japan’s military has said it spotted four large Russian amphibious warfare ships sailing close to its islands as they traveled west, possibly towards Europe, Reuters is reporting.

    Pictures of the amphibious transports, typically used for landing expeditionary forces ashore, published by Japan’s defence ministry showed what appeared to be military trucks loaded onto the deck of one of the vessels.

    I believe Turkey has closed the Bosporus to Russian warships, so that’s going to be a problem. Not sure if Sweden and Denmark will let them into the Baltic Sea, but in any case you’d think it would be quicker to ship stuff overland from Eastern Siberia rather than halfway around the world by sea.

  91. 91.

    Bill Arnold

    @Villago Delenda Est:
    Most recent SLMB test of a deployed SLBM I see is 2017:
    https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/russias-deadliest-sub-test-fires-intercontinental-ballistic-missile/ – a missile type first deployed 2013.
    Crown jewels of Russia, with human talent devoted to their design, production, and deployment. It is possible that something in the chain including in the warheads doesn’t actually work.Not something that planners can bet on, though. IMO. (There are multiple weapons and multiple weapon systems.)

  92. 92.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Calouste: Under treaty obligations, Turkey has only closed the straits to Russian warships that have home ports not in the Black Sea. All Russian warships who do have h9me ports in the Black Sea are allowed through. There’s a Geneva Convention for everything.

  93. 93.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    WASHINGTON — In 36 days of fighting on Iwo Jima during World War II, nearly 7,000 Marines were killed. Now, 20 days after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine, his military has already lost more soldiers, according to American intelligence estimates.
    The conservative side of the estimate, at more than 7,000 Russian troop deaths, is greater than the number of American troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

    Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom 1h

    For one thing, there’s no way to keep this a secret. The Soviets learned this the hard way in Afghanistan. Putin – raging about “bastards and traitors” – is going to learn it now. Filming a bunch of Russian gym rats wearing a “Z” and chanting stuff isn’t going to fix that. /2

  97. 97.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Bill Arnold: I agree that no one should jump to the assumption that they’ve let their nukes (and the delivery systems) rot.  But there’s so much corruption.  You would think Vlad would draw a line somewhere…

  101. 101.

    Redshift

    @Adam L Silverman:

    He got the campaign photo op and the money Deripaska laundered through McConnell’s SuperPAC. That’s all he cared about. 

    Exactly. A while back, someone posted here that there’s a small McConnell museum in Kentucky, and it’s all about elections he’s won and power he’s gained, not about anything he’s accomplished. The plant only mattered for how it was useful to him directly.

  102. 102.

    Calouste

    @Kalakal: Tsugaru. For those following, who don’t want to look it up like me, that the strait between the main island of Japan, Honshu, and the island north of it, Hokkaido. The strait that Kalakal mentioned is between Japan and Korea.

  103. 103.

    Kelly

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: At the top of @RadioFreeTom’s feed is a link to David Simon’s response to David Schiff’s disparagement of President Z’s attire. Chef’s Kiss

    https://twitter.com/AoDespair/status/1504314272419131397

    If I spent a week attempting to construct a more carping, swinish and relentlessly petty remark, polishing it incessantly until all its spittle-flecked stupidity glistened shamelessly in full view of humanity, I could not ever hope to achieve this

  104. 104.

    Medicine Man

    @PJ: I think Graham was against Trump until he won, then he had to pilotfish behind the biggest ego in his party.

  106. 106.

    Winston

    @Adam L Silverman: Someday soon, I hope,  I’d love to attend a meet up in Tampa. There seems to be a lot Jackals down here and I would love to buy you dinner and several drinks. Maybe Mrs and Mr Cracker too.

  108. 108.

    West of the Rockies

    Odd question maybe, but when we see those drone strikes on Russian tanks, are those always fatal? Is it shrapnel or fire that would kill operators? I mean, they are tanks, so could soldiers crawl out and survive?

  110. 110.

    Geminid

    @Medicine Man: It’s certainly possible that there is “kompromat” on Lindsay Graham out there. But Graham is a hollow man. He has no moral ballast, and blows with the wind.

  111. 111.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    I recall in law school, I had a professor talking about international perspectives on various things – like Chinese students being baffled by Nixon’s fall, at the very concept that the people in charge could get in trouble for violating the law, and about Russian students talking about how the Soviets were the only ones fighting Hitler for years until the West opened the second front (the professor’s response was that the Western Front was the US’s fifth front in the war, though I can’t remember what the others in the list were; I vaguely recall multiple fronts in the Pacific).

    The narrative that the Russians were the primary combatants against the Nazis in the Great Patriotic War runs deep (never mind that Stalin and Hitler were in bed right up until Barbarossa). I think (based on my completely inexpert observations and opinions) that Putin’s trying to build a narrative that this is the beginning of a second Great Patriotic War, which would be easier for the Russian people to support.

    At the moment, I’m not sure whether the closest parallel to the current war is Afghanistan (the Soviet version) or Vietnam. The prospect of conscripts being sent into a meat grinder to no good end suggests the latter to me, and I don’t think Putin can sustain that for ten years the way JFK, LBJ, and Nixon did.

  113. 113.

    Sloane Ranger

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m not an expert, but wouldn’t the ships need to re-fuel at least once on the journey? If so, where do you think the most likely place(s) is/are?

    Also, can the Turks be absolute arseholes and hold them up while they check papers or something?

  114. 114.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Redshift:

    McConnell got his true political start as the relatively nonideological County Judge/Executive of Jefferson County, which was a lot redder then than it is today. Louisville proper was reliably centrist Dem with a “good ole boy, ward heeler” political ethos,  but the county had just as many outside the city boundary as were inside, and those folks were more conservative, hated the urban core and had their asses chapped over busing for integration. Mitch successfully managed all that and was adept at fixing potholes, handling zoning disputes and extending roads while basically laying off anything going on inside city boundaries, which put him in a good relationship vis-a-vis the mayor of the city, who was always a D.

    He was also a chickenhawk, according to his police driver; this put him at constant risk from the owner of the Courier Journal, who knew about it and had some photos taken by the driver that he used to set a ceiling on Mitch’s career.

    As a senator, Mitch’s early career wasn’t bad. He was good at bringing home the sort of pork that makes developers and CEOs happy. His slide into hell was the end of the earmark (thank you teatards), when the power he enjoyed from doling out projects ended. In order to reinvent his power base, it came to enforced team play designed to appeal to the lowest of rubes.

  115. 115.

    Winston

    Russia wants Alaska back. What’s next? The Russian River? Will they invade Ukiah? (A mile from where I used to live). haha

  117. 117.

    prostratedragon

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR:  If you’re still around,  what was the second front supposed to be? Apart from the Pacific fronts that your professor probably named,  the big Normandy invasion required a  lot of groundwork (of a kind the lack of which we’ve been appreciating lately), and my thin understanding is that Africa and Italy were to help keep Germany stretched out until then and keep the armies active. Also, there was an Atlantic front for the duration of the war, basically,  that spread over both north and south hemispheres,  and among other things had something to do with keeping the Soviet Union supplied, as well as allowing material to be placed for Normandy.

  118. 118.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Winston:

    “Russia’s demand of reparations from the US (along with Alaska and Fort Ross) for its losses in its war against separatists in the Ukraine (which I did not support) is an appropriate remedy for Western neoliberal aggressive woke ideology.”

    – Glenn Greenwald, probably

  119. 119.

    David Koch

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: 1st front was North Africa, second front was Italy, 3rd front was against the Uboat wolfpack, the 4th front was the strategic bombing, the 5th front was Bob Hope.

  121. 121.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    “The bombing of marked shelters, which I do not support, is an appropriate and understandable  response to the indiscriminate slaughter of the young conscripts who are arriving in tanks, armored transports and helicopters to liberate people in the Ukraine from Western shitlib woke ideology.”

    – By Glenn Greenwald, probably

  124. 124.

    Feathers

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: Also missing from the Russian version is that much of the hardware they were fighting with was American. The Lend Lease program provided Stalin with $180B of goods in today’s dollars. A huge portion of Rosie the Riveters output was shipped to the Soviets.

    My mother was a Russian studies major and got her master’s in Russian history intending to go work at the State Dept in the 60s. Got married and taught Russian instead. I was going to be a Russian studies major before stupidly jumping into third year Russian as a freshman and bombing out. Also didn’t care for right wing politics of the Cold War. Didn’t realize it would end just a few years later. But I did grow up knowing and appreciating the Eastern Front in WWII. This also means I know that they needed US help to win it

    Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”

     

    • 400,000 jeeps & trucks
    • 14,000 airplanes
    • 8,000 tractors
    • 13,000 tanks
    • 1.5 million blankets
    • 15 million pairs of army boots
    • 107,000 tons of cotton
    • 2.7 million tons of petrol products
    • 4.5 million tons of food

     

    from Russian US Embassy page incl interesting video of  WWII Russian fighting

    ETA. Things I mistakenly deleted.

  125. 125.

    lee

    Cloud computing companies are shutting down in Russia. Many of the Russian tech companies are going to run out of storage space. Basically if it is a 21st century device, it uses some sort of cloud storage.

  126. 126.

    bjacques

    Probably dead thread, but I found this analysis from a Syrian intellectual about the kind of negative partisanship that Glem and others deal in–namely, only US imperialism is bad, and bad other actors can directly or indirectly lay their crimes at our door. The corollary is that Americans, or any westerners have no moral right to oppose dictators around the world. I’d been looking for an argument like this during the Syrian revolt and ensuing chaos, especially during Russia shelling and Syria gassing civilians, yet friends were slandering the White Helmets and others (like “Caesar”) who documented Assad’s and Putin’s atrocities. Since Wagner pulled mercenaries out of Syria in the runup to the invasion, this could become big news again soon.

    Pride of place for this kind of reductionism goes to Noam Chomsky. It’s a but long but fairly easy read:

    https://newlinesmag.com/review/chomsky-is-no-friend-of-the-syrian-revolution/

  127. 127.

    jimmiraybob

    I could be wrong.  Stranger things have happened.

    But it sure does look like Marsha “Bless Her Heart” Blackburn is setting up the attack on Biden as a weakling if he doesn’t provide overt air cover.

  128. 128.

    Geminid

    @bjacques: I have not followed Noam Chomsky closely, but I wonder if his apologism for the Assad regime in Syria is motivated by his belief that Israel is a special case of imperialism, whose oppression of Palestinian people under it’s control is enabled  by the United States. In a recent adress at Boston University (part of University activists’ “Apartheid Week”) Chomsky decried Israel and the U.S. as “two rogue nations.”

    He also said that Israel is rapidly on it’s way to being “a pariah nation.” That may be wishful thinking. Rightly or wrongly, events seem to be moving in an opposite direction, at least when it comes to the actions of other governments.

    Chomsky’s recent remarks were reported in (I believe) BU’s student newspaper. I will try to find a cite for this article.

  129. 129.

    J R in WV

    Thanks again,  Adam, both for accumulating the information and for your analysis of the information you accumulated! I’m sure more people will see this as lurkers than any of us could ever guess,  here is hoping it does some good…

  130. 130.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: That’s a BU Today article from earlier this month titled “Noam Chomsky Rails Against Israel, Again,” subtitled “Conjures Images of Apartheid and U.S. as ‘Mafia Don’.”

  131. 131.

    wetzel

    The RUSI analysis is very interesting. Strange to mention the Chinese Civil War, the Peninsular War and not the American Revolution as examples of the compound war, thinking especially about George Washington’s decision to retreat from New York into Pennsylvania.

    I think the authors have not fully accommodated the pure physical geography of the Russian predicament. If you look at the Russian advance. Along all three axes of advance, the Russian advance is already further than the entire entire German advance to the English channel in the Battle of France. Other analysts point out the Russians can’t just bypass Kharkiv without building a second wall around it to keep how over many regiments of Ukrainian Army from counter attacking out of it. In war in agrarian civilization, you gained the economy with the city. I think their cities will function more like a Roman fortified encampments for the Ukrainians.

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