(Save Mariupol by Oksana Drachkovska; found here)
The Russian reinvasion of Ukraine is a month old today.
It's been a month of our resistance. The heroic opposition of the ??Ukrainian nation, the Ukrainian people, to the merciless invasion of Russia. It's been a month of our defense against attempts to destroy us.#stoprussiahttps://t.co/yYRCxhItPg pic.twitter.com/jFZzlL9l5u
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 24, 2022
Before we dive in, let’s do a little cleaning up. Ukraine is not accusing Russia of having taken 402,000 Ukrainians including 84,000 children to Russia. Rather, Ukraine’s parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights Lyudmyla Denisova announced that the Russians have made that claim, but that at this time her office is unable to verify the Russian assertion. There has been repeated reporting that Russia is trying to and is actually funneling internally displaced Ukrainians into either Russian controlled portions of Ukraine or into Ukraine proper as the Ukrainians attempt to flee to safety. There has also been reporting regarding the Russian use of isolation facilities, think something along the lines of a cross between a torture dungeon and a black site, established in Russian controlled parts of Ukraine. I referenced some of that about two weeks ago, specifically Christopher Miller’s reporting on the subject. Right now all we know is the Russians are relocating Ukrainians to Russian controlled areas or Russia proper, what we don’t know yet are the actual numbers. I’ve looked at a dozen different pieces of reporting on this today and all of them, other than The Kyiv Independent‘s that I linked to above, botched the story in how they framed it.
Earlier today NATO held a senior leader’s meeting. Here is the video of President Zelenskyy’s remarks to them:
On the one month anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Zelensky addressed NATO: “Never, please, never tell us again that our army does not meet NATO standards. We have shown what our standards are capable of. And how much we can give to the common security in Europe and the world.” pic.twitter.com/hJ4FooIkVb
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 24, 2022
This morning The NY Times published an op-ed by Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minster of Estonia.
TALLINN, Estonia — To anyone who lived under Soviet occupation, reports from Ukraine replay scenes we thought we would never see again. The bombing of civilians and the wanton destruction of buildings recall the carnage unleashed on the European continent by Hitler and Stalin. In Mariupol, a port city subjected to a brutal, horrifying siege, residents are reportedly being deported to faraway places in Russia where an uncertain fate awaits them.
My family knows what that’s like. My mother was only a 6-month-old baby when, in 1949, the Soviets deported her, together with her mother and grandmother, to Siberia. My grandfather was sent to a Siberian prison camp. They were lucky to survive and return to Estonia, but many didn’t. Today the Kremlin is reviving techniques of sheer barbarity. Those who have escaped Mariupol describe it as hell on earth.
To put an end to these horrors, the most optimistic observers have put their hope in a peace deal. But peace is not going to break out tomorrow. We must face up to the fact that the Kremlin’s idea of European and global security is completely at odds with that of the free world. And Vladimir Putin is willing to kill and repress en masse for the sake of it.
At NATO, our focus should be simple: Mr. Putin cannot win this war. He cannot even think he has won, or his appetite will grow. We need to demonstrate the will and commit resources to defend NATO territory. To check Russia’s aggression, we need to put in place a long-term policy of smart containment.
First, we must help Ukraine in every possible way. The people of Ukraine have not tired, and neither can we. True, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has galvanized us into action. Allies and partners have made decisions with remarkable determination and unity. But now is the time to go the extra mile.
Ukrainian soldiers are able fighters, but they need weapons and matériel, including longer-range air defense assets and anti-tank missiles to better protect their skies. Defensive military aid must be our top priority, and we must commit ourselves to it for the long haul.
In Estonia, a country of 1.3 million people, we have provided Ukraine with close to $250 million worth of assistance so far. Much of that is military, but it extends to ambulances, blankets and baby food. The free world should redouble its efforts to support the people of Ukraine however possible — through the delivery of arms, food and daily essentials.
Much, much more at the link.
More after the jump!
Similar to Prime Minister Kallas’s thoughts in the Times, Nataliya Gumenyuk, a Ukrainian author and journalist, wrote an op-ed for The Washington Post.
KYIV, Ukraine — The Russians have asked Ukrainian forces to surrender Mariupol. The Ukrainians have refused.
I can easily imagine that some observers in the outside world might find that bewildering. The Russians have shelled the city into a smoking wreck, targeting residential areas. First, the airstrikes destroyed power stations, so there’s no more electricity. Then the biggest supermarkets were obliterated, so there’s no food. After another deliberate attack, the firefighters no longer had vehicles, leaving them struggling to put out fires and rescue survivors.
Nothing could show more clearly how Russia aims to continue this war. If Vladimir Putin’s troops don’t win battles with the Ukrainian military, they’ll attack civilians, pressuring the government to surrender. In Mariupol right now, an estimated 300,000 people are effectively being held hostage by the Russian troops who have encircled the city.
Those watching from afar struggle to understand how Ukrainians should respond. I’ve been getting calls from analysts in Paris and London, asking me why we don’t simply give up Mariupol. They’re also asking me how Russians and Ukrainians can arrive at a deal to end the war. Surely, the reasoning goes, anything must be better than enduring such slaughter.
But we don’t see airstrikes on maternity hospitals and bomb shelters where kids and women hide as invitations to negotiate. We see them as demonstrations of what the Kremlin will do to Ukrainians if it can. It’s not about pride. It’s about survival. We have no choice but to win. If we lose, we know what awaits us.
Much, much more at the link.
Mariupol:
When I am being asked what I want from NATO leaders, it is this: I want them to remember about this child sitting next to his dead parents on the cold street of Mariupol.
And many others, who were not picked up by strangers and who are still sitting next to their killed parents.
— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) March 24, 2022
Here’s a thread with pictures from Kharkiv. I’m posting the entire thread because of the images.
Kharkiv today. A thread. All pictures by AP Efrem Lukatsky
A dead resident lies at the store as he was killed it the Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 24, 2022. Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second biggest city 30 kilometers of the Russian border. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
1/7 pic.twitter.com/0k5AD33TFM
— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) March 24, 2022
3/7
A Ukrainian soldier inspects a destroyed Russian APC after recent battle in Kharkiv, March 24, 2022. The writing made by Ukrainian soldiers reads: ‘Not to War’. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) pic.twitter.com/jzidlk8ocs
— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) March 24, 2022
5/7
A man reacts in a room in his apartment in a multi-story house destroyed after the Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) pic.twitter.com/fsLzsQSQ1m
— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) March 24, 2022
7/7
An elderly man plays the accordion to amuse children in a city subway that people have used as a bomb shelter for over three weeks as they save themselves from the Russian shelling in Kharkiv, March 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) pic.twitter.com/mEC7ZYqc3B
— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) March 24, 2022
In the months before Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, an oligarch with Russian ties allegedly paid for locals to paint swastikas around Kharkiv, sources say. The effort, according to the sources, was part of a false flag operation to exaggerate Ukraine’s Nazi presence at a time when Putin was using it as a pretext for war.
The alleged plot, according to multiple sources, involved Pavel Fuks, a real estate, banking, and oil magnate who, the sources claim, was co-opted by Russian security forces to participate. Through intermediaries, Fuks allegedly offered between $500 and $1,500 for street level criminals to vandalize city streets with pro-Nazi graffiti in December, January, and February.
The accounts of Fuks’ alleged efforts to stir up animosity in Ukraine is derived from multiple sources, including U.S. intelligence reporting. Rolling Stone spoke to an Ukrainian who says he confronted Fuks twice about the alleged swastika plot. Another account of the plot was relayed to the U.S. government in recent weeks by a U.S. informant with high-level business and government contacts in Ukraine. A U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter, confirmed that the allegations about Fuks’ activities had been received and distributed for analysis throughout the U.S. intelligence community. Finally, Rolling Stone spoke to four other sources who spoke on condition of anonymity and confirmed they heard about Fuks’ alleged role in a plot to paint swastikas independently of one another.
Oleg Plyush, a former top Ukrainian kickboxer who says he’s a friend of Fuks and spoke to him about the swastika plot, tells Rolling Stone he learned about the scheme from an intermediary involved with finding people to carry out the vandalism. According to Plyush’s account, when confronted about the scheme, Fuks claimed that “he had no choice” and that it was his “assignment” — mandatory if he wanted to stay in business in the region.
Fuks is Jewish and a major contributor to a holocaust memorial in Kiev, and there’s no reason to believe he would pay for swastikas out of antisemitism. Instead, if confirmed, the plot suggests there was at least one deliberate attempt by the Russian security state to manufacture evidence to exaggerate the sway of Nazism in Ukraine. In the run-up to the invasion and after, Putin claimed Ukraine had fallen under Nazi control and that the invasion was necessary to liberate the country — a claim broadly dismissed internationally but that, with the help of state-run media, seems to have taken hold among many Russians.
Much more at the link.
Newlines Magazine broke an interesting and important story on how Russian backed and financed hard right and neo-nationalist parties, politicians, and activists in Europe are closely coordinating their messaging with the Kremlin.
ast November, during Matteo’s working visit to Moscow, my boss arranged a private meeting with him, renting a room on the same floor of the Lotte Hotel to prevent the Western press from catching wind of the meeting.
So wrote Mikhail Yakushev, a Russian national, in a Microsoft Word document he emailed to himself on June 18, 2019. Yakushev is the director of Tsargrad, an organization in Russia that describes itself as a group of companies whose mission is “the revival of the greatness of the Russian Empire.”
“Matteo” referred to Matteo Salvini, the former Italian deputy prime minister and interior minister and current leader of the League, Italy’s nationalist and anti-migrant party. Now a senator in Italy’s upper chamber of Parliament, Salvini has been an avowed admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom in 2019 he labeled “the best statesman currently on earth.”
The documents and digital correspondence, obtained by New Lines from the London-based Dossier Center, in collaboration with Estonian news outlet Delfi, Italian magazine l’Espresso, German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung and German public broadcaster Westdeutscher Rundfunk, offer documentary evidence of just how much a major European party known for its racist and xenophobic politics has relied on financing and strategic political support from a key proxy and influence peddler of the Kremlin.
As Moscow rounds out its first month of an illicit war in Ukraine undertaken on a flimsy pretext of “de-Nazification,” these communications show it is thoroughly aligned with a host of extremist right-wing politicians and activists throughout Europe who come far closer to satisfying the definition of fascism than does the embattled government in Kyiv.
Yakushev’s boss and the chairperson of the Tsargrad group of companies is Konstantin Malofeev, a Russian politician and business owner more commonly known as the “Orthodox oligarch” for his outward religiosity. Malofeev has been sanctioned by the EU and the U.S. for his involvement in the Russian annexation of Crimea from Ukrainian control in 2014. Ukraine has accused him of financing illegal pro-Russian paramilitary groups.
In the document Yakushev sent himself, he expressed concern that the “situation had drastically deteriorated” and “now we cannot continue to have contact with Matteo.” According to the document, the contact between Salvini and Tsargrad had been Salvini’s adviser Gianluca Savoini, who had “lost his free access to his boss.”
In February, the Italian magazine l’Espresso published an investigation in which it revealed Savoini’s secret negotiations in Moscow with an apparent aim to acquire millions of euros’ worth of covert funding to the League ahead of the EU parliamentary elections in 2019.
As a result of that exposé, Yakushev’s document noted that Savoini was “under the watchful eye of the local [Italian] security services.” He pondered how to get in contact with Salvini, whom he always referred to by his first name, “so that he can allocate a reliable person to contact us, with whom we can communicate in Russia or anywhere in Europe.”
The same document described a plan to hold a convention in the fall of 2019 at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg. The leaders of the European Parliament’s freshly created Identity and Democracy faction, uniting its far-right political parties, would be invited to attend. The meeting would be covered by the international press.
The event never took place.
I can’t possibly imagine something like that happening in the US…
Much, much, much more at the link.
Israel still looking out for Vladimir Putin’s best interests!
KYIV, Ukraine — The Israeli government rejected requests from Ukraine and Estonia in recent years to purchase and use Pegasus — the powerful spyware tool — to hack Russian mobile phone numbers, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
Israel feared that selling the cyberweapon to adversaries of Russia would damage Israel’s relationship with the Kremlin, they said.
Both Ukraine and Estonia had hoped to buy Pegasus to gain access to Russian phones, presumably as part of intelligence operations targeting their increasingly menacing neighbor in the years before Russia carried out its invasion of Ukraine.
But Israel’s Ministry of Defense refused to grant licenses to NSO Group, the company that makes Pegasus, to sell to Estonia and Ukraine if the goal of those nations was to use the weapon against Russia. The decisions came after years of Israel providing licenses to foreign governments that used the spyware as a tool of domestic repression.
In the case of Ukraine, the requests for Pegasus go back several years. Since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, the country has increasingly seen itself as a direct target of Russian aggression and espionage. Ukrainian officials have sought Israeli defense equipment to counter the Russian threat, but Israel has imposed a near-total embargo on selling weapons, including Pegasus, to Ukraine.
More at the link.
With the exception of the Turks and the Qataris, all of our Middle Eastern allies and/or clients – the Israelis, the Saudis, the Emiratis – have been somewhere between useless and actually working against us in regard to dealing with Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine. In the case of Saudi, it is because MBS and Jared are conspiring.
Several days prior to Biden and King Salman’s call, Jared Kushner traveled to the Middle East, meeting with MBS and other top Saudi officials, including the CEO of Aramco, at the state oil company’s headquarters in Dhahran. It is not known what they discussed. Asked about the purpose of the meetings, neither Kushner nor his firm, Kushner Companies, responded to requests for comment.
I can’t possibly imagine what Jared, MBS, and the CEO of Aramco might possibly have been disucssing back in January.
Here’s another excellent thread explaining why sanctions and economic measures will not have the effects we need them to:
THREAD: Things are not going well for Putin in Ukraine war. But slew of news today should remind everyone that Putin definitely knows how to build and exploit leverage. 1/x
— Andrew S. Weiss (@andrewsweiss) March 23, 2022
- Take Putin’s unexpected announcement that EU countries will now have to pay for natural gas shipments in rubles, not euros. That move, plus a Russian-directed shutdown of the Caspian Pipeline (1 mln/bpd), are pushing oil prices back to the $120 level today. 2/x
Just as Biden lands in Europe, Moscow is trying to damage some of the much-touted Western unity over how to punish the Kremlin under pressure. It’s probably a manageable challenge for US and Germany policymakers but hardly desirable under the circumstances. 4/x The bigger question for Biden, Scholz, et al is how to manage this crisis over the long-term and to deal with the limitations of the West’s toolkit. What if Putin refuses to slow down his devastating attacks on major cities across Ukraine and kills huge number of civilians? 5/x Yet Western leaders are being stampeded by public anger. Every single day they are being forced to “do something” to hurt Putin. Their main response is to impose sweeping sanctions on Russia. The White House and the EU will highlight that during Biden’s trip. 6/x But money is always fungible (esp if you’re in the oil/gas business!), and there is a big timing mismatch between the imposition of sanctions and the impact on the Kremlin. How long will it take to starve the Russian war machine? 7/x In short, the West is entering a pain contest with Vladimir Putin. Can Joe Biden tolerate an uninterrupted spike in energy prices and the pass-through to inflation from other disruptions in global commodities markets and supply chains? 8/x The moral imperative to support Ukraine in their defense against a Russian invasion is 100% unquestionable. Yet Ukraine’s remarkable s/t successes on the battlefield may not immediately impact Kremlin decision making about how much punishment Russia is willing to absorb. 9/x Does Putin get accurate information from his generals? Does he even trust it? Impossible to say. But what we know for sure is that Putin has routinely used escalation in such situations to upend his opponents’ best-laid plans. No reason to doubt that that’s changed. END
Your daily bayraktar!
#Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar #Russia #UkraineWar #RussianUkrainianWar #UkraineWar #Kyiv #Kiev
Un drone de combat Bayraktar traitant une cible mobile, ici, un char dont il fait sauter la tourelle : pic.twitter.com/pPcSvqiQ1L
— Dominique (@FreeFrance) March 24, 2022
Open thread!
debbie
Israel needs a good talking to.
Medicine Man
@Adam – Do you have idea if the hearsay about a (Bucha) pocket NW of Kyiv are for real? https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1506846280164814859
Feels to me like it may be action interdicting RU supplies behind their spearheads being interpreted creatively by open source aficionados, but I thought I’d ask anyhow.
Martin
I’ll add that the sanctions aren’t really designed to stop Putin in Ukraine. Biden was really clear about this today. It’s about long term isolation of Russia.
WaterGirl
@Martin: Biden was really clear about that. He said something like “You’ve got that wrong” and then proceeded to explain that the sanctions weren’t intended to stop Putin from declaring war on Ukraine.
Martin
CNN reporting that Ukraine has asked the US for 500 Javelins and Stingers per day. Not sure how long we could keep that up for, but probably could for a month or two.
Adam L Silverman
@Medicine Man: The Ukrainians are clearly on the counteroffensive in that area. It is unclear whether it is just pressing the attack on what they’ve been doing or they’re actually trying to encircle and reduce the Russian forces in the area. I’ve also seen a single report that the Ukrainians began a counteroffensive in the south this morning. There’s a lot going on, but not all of it is clear yet.
Kent
Netanyahu and Putin are two peas in a pod. Nothing surprises me about Israel anymore.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: @WaterGirl: Given that we didn’t start putting them in place until after the reinvasion, it is clear they couldn’t be deterrent and preventive. The real problem is if they won’t inflict enough pain on Putin directly and on him indirectly by targeting everyone from oligarchs to siloviki to their families to everyday Russians, then they’re not helping the Ukrainians. And if they’re not helping the Ukrainians, then they’re not a feasible, acceptable, and suitable response to Putin’s reinvasion of Ukraine.
sanjeevs
@Kent: There were only two leaders Trump publicly showed deference to – Vlad and Bibi.
dmsilev
@Martin: I seem to remember reading that the normal production pace for Javelin is around six or seven thousand per year. No idea what the stockpile usually is, but presumably several years worth of production. Still, 500 per day will eat through that pretty fast.
West of the Cascades
@sanjeevs: MBS in Saudi Arabia would like a word.
NotMax
@https://balloon-juice.com/2022/03/24/war-for-ukraine-update-30-the-war-is-a-month-old-today/#comment-8469017
And Kim makes three.
NotMax
Fumble fingers fix.
@sanjeevs
And Kim makes three.
Carlo Graziani
I have a feeling things are coming to a head soon. I would say the timescale is set by how long the Russian army in Ukraine can keep from collapsing and being carved up. That’s how long the Russian military has to decide what to do about Putin.
He’s almost certainly not accepting honest information about the progress of the war, because that would require him to reconstruct too much of his world-view, and he doesn’t have the kind of intellectual integrity that allows one to reject beliefs in the face of conflicting evidence, rather than the other way around. So the military probably has no way to persuade him to change course, and thus no way to avoid complete destruction. Unless they remove him.
In the history of Russian leadership succession, putsch is the rule, rather than the exception. Stalin chased Trotsky off. Beria got a bullet in the brain in a Lubyanka prison cell. Kruschev “retired” Malenkov. Brezhnev conspired against Kruschev, and successfully retired him in turn. After a pause to let a few gerontocrats die in harness, Gorbachev restored the proud tradition by getting himself retired twice, once by a military-assisted conservative coup (parts of the military actually playing both sides), then by Yeltsin’s coup-de-grace which brought down the Soviet Union. Yeltsin kept up form by putting down a coup, having the Army fire tank shells into the Duma building.
So, there is plenty of perfectly valid constitutional precedent here. Just sayin’.
sdhays
@NotMax: Kim was true love, though. Puppy-like admiration for the other two, but pure affection for Kim.
West of the Rockies
What was that vehicle in that last Bayraker clip? Anyone know?
sdhays
@Carlo Graziani: My understanding is that Putin’s steps to make that practically impossible are a significant reason for the Russian Army’s current condition.
Sally
A lot of discussion in the previous thread about the transporting of Ukrainian citizens to Russia. I saw footage of busloads of people who said they were paid cash and would be taken to comfortable and safe homes in Russia, near the border. This was both before the war started and during the first few days of the war, and from the “separatist” regions. I then read, a few days later, that many of those people returned, and more wanted to return, because they realised they had been lied to. They were quoted as saying they were particularly upset at the attempt to transport them to remote locations in Russia. Many thought they were joining relatives in Russia, and some probably did. Some, many, I don’t know, were already living under the influence of Russian propaganda and said they were afraid to go to western Ukraine as they were Russian speakers and would be unwelcome. I thought I read it on BBC but I can’t find it now. There were also evacuations of Ukrainians from Donetsk by the separatists/rebels/green men by mid February. These would be in addition to the people kidnapped from cities like Mariupol, and may be included in that 400,000. But I don’t know any better than y’all.
Kent
As would Kim Jong-un
Carlo Graziani
@sdhays: I’m not entirely sure what “steps” he could take to prevent tanks from blowing down the Kremlin gates. He does not have a monopoly on conspiracy, especially in Russia.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: If enough determined people decide that Putin’s time has come, it will happen.
The Castle
One month in, I have been surprised by many things.
Maybe the biggest to me is how much anger at Russia there was in Ukraine, even in, and maybe especially in, Donbas, after the Russians invaded in 2014. This despite the language and cultural connections eastern Ukraine had with Russia.
After the invasion, apparently the occupied part of Ukraine was beset by criminal gangs who harassed, extorted, and murdered with near impunity. And because the economy had collapsed after the invasion, there weren’t many legitimate ways to stay alive aside from being part of this unholy mess. A terror regime.
The Ukrainians knew this, and certainly those living in Donbas knew this. I did not. I don’t know if this was a blind spot in Western reporting, or if I just didn’t register this. I had assumed that a large part of the population in eastern Ukraine was happy or at worst ambivalent about the Russians. Quelle erreur!
This must be a big reason why the Ukranians have fought so fiercely, even those in the east — they could see what would happen to the entire country if Russia succeeded, because it was playing out in Donbas already.
Redshift
I’m sure Mr. Weiss is much more knowledgeable in these areas than I am, but in my limited understanding, Putin cannot create an uninterrupted spike in energy prices, because there are plenty of alternative sources to replace Russian oil and gas, they’ve just been shut down when demand and prices dropped because of the pandemic, and it just takes time to ramp back up again.
So Putin can make things worse for a few months, but that power will steadily dissipate.
(But I could be wrong.)
Sister Golden Bear
<David Attenborough voice> Desperate to avoid herds of Javelins and NLAWs, the Russian tank tries hiding underwater.
Carlo Graziani
@Sister Golden Bear: I would pay for that premium channel!
different-church-lady
Really really tempted to take the three-day ban here…
LivinginExile
Thanks Adam for all the posts, they’re appreciated.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sister Golden Bear: They need one of these.
terry chay
Not sure it’s a good idea to be amplifying the Andrew Weiss thread. Seems dangerously close to the same “Putin is a mastermind” and “It’s all US’s fault” bullshit that is more easily explained as Putin is someone who thinks he’s some mastermind but really is just a bully and is now in a china shop . I’ll bet (without even looking at his work) he’s one of those “it’s all NATO’s fault for expanding eastward” shitheads.
Nearly everything I’ve read from people who actually understand finance, oil/world trade, etc. has said the ruble-denominated idea is like sanctioning yourself as it makes it even tougher for businesses to exploit the sanction loopholes for oil provided, and that it sounds like Putin doesn’t understand how things actually work with his pronouncement.
You might want to link the Ukrainian ballistic missile(?) strike on the Russian transport ship. I don’t know what’s going on there, but it’s obvious that they sunk something and severely damaged at least one other ship. Not sure what the logistical implications of that are for the south. Curious to hear people’s opinions/analysis of this.
Here are some other links I ran across today:
Another thing I ran into last night on Youtube and I’m surprised I didn’t see it earlier is some threads from a youtube channel on video games. It seems to me this guy is in procurement or something?? in the Australian government or something as his day job.
Hope some of you find these links useful!
danielx
@West of the Rockies:
Appeared to be a treaded vehicle, bmp maybe.
Holy shit.
terry chay
@Redshift: He is apparently an expert in Russia/US relations. So he knows nothing about oil markets.
Jay
@dmsilev:
once a stockpile is created, production will drop off to cover training and exercise requirements. Production can be often ramped up, with a timeline and dealing with supply chains.
Jay
@West of the Rockies:
BMP variant. The video is too grainy to see the turret clearly, and thus the armament to better define the variant, but the deck plates line up.
Another Scott
@West of the Rockies: The comment in French says that it was a tank. I don’t see anything about it on oryx…’s Twitter thing (he’s documenting all the equipment losses).
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: 90% of people think that every tracked vehicle is a tank.
Jay
@Another Scott:
not a tank, a IFV. Just because it has treads, doesn’t make it a tank. What can be seen clearishly, ( treads outside of the fenders, hatch configuration, short gun of some kind, splash plates on the front slope, vents and hatches on the rear deck) suggest it a BMP of some variant.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMP-1
terry chay
here is a youtube about the BMP variants.
Jay
@Another Scott:
as of this am, Oryx is 196 cases backlogged in confirming RU losses, despite he and his group working 10 hours a day,…
Ishiyama
That article in the Atlantic describes trench warfare outside of Kyiv; Russia using artillery bombardment followed by mass rushes. Works about as well as it did in WWI.
Jay
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W9pVEP0AzZ4
The Chieftain talks about video,…
CaseyL
Chris Hayes’ monologue on MSNBC tonight was very good. He talked about the global push towards authoritarianism, but put it into historical perspective.
So many epochal changes in the past 30 years! From the fall of the USSR and the rise of liberal democracy, with a sideline into international terrorism, to where we are now.
He believes that what is happening now is a global war between authoritarianism and liberal democracy. That’s something we’ve talked a lot about here, but it is good to hear someone with a national audience say it plainly.
I do wish he’d been more detailed and explicit about how the fascists, financed by the parasitic ultra-wealthy, has so thoroughly warped and undermined democratic institutions all over the Western world. Brexit/Tories and Trump/GOP being prime examples.
(I also wish he’d mentioned, if only in passing, how the fascists’ success in warping democracies has also left us incapable of enacting policies to address things like climate change, income inequity, and racism, but I guess connecting those dots is too much to ask.)
Jay
@Ishiyama:
technically, not WWI trench warfare. Yes there are trenches, slit/foxhole/bunkers, because that is how infantry stays alive in the face of artillery.
On the Russian side, it more describes at max, company sized/platoon sized unsupported by mixed arms attacks on Ukrainian roadblocks and strongpoints. Russian CAT teams are still stuck on the roads so they are trying to send in flanking infantry attacks through “The Green”, where the ground is dry enough to walk off road.
Kattails
I see that a large percentage of the GQP thinks that Biden is not doing enough about Ukraine, notwithstanding the fact that their own TFG would have sold that country down the river in a heartbeat. If we need to ramp up to a more dangerous point I’d like to see Biden just challenge them directly in a news conference. Say, OK, (you assholes) I read the polls, you want me to get tougher. You understand there are risks, right? Given that you all have fought me on every single goddamned decent thing to do for this country, Imma gonna ask you right up front: you gonna back me up or stab me in the back?
I mean, “understand” is a complete non-sequitur with this gang but I just like the idea of front-loading the image of their perfidy. Kind of like he did with the Russian false-flag ops.
I also fantasize about Vlad getting bored/annoyed with TFG or just wanting to stir the pot, and releasing whatever it is he has on Trump, for shits and giggles. Someone online had an inkling that the pee tapes weren’t about kinky sexy stuff, but about pedophilia and trafficking. Which, given Trump’s general known propensities, would not surprise me.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Jay: I Googled BMP and found a picture that looked a lot like a tank to my eyes. Obviously, I know very little about these things, so can someone explain the difference between a tank and a BMP? They both have armor, turret and guns, and a tread, so I am missing why they all are not just variations on a tank. Thanks!
Ishiyama
@Jay: Thanks for clarifying. I couldn’t really tell what was being described.
Ishiyama
@Jay: Thanks for clarifying. I couldn’t really tell what was being described.
terry chay
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Tank will have a bigger gun. A BMP carries up to 8 infantry in the back in addition to its crew. I believe our version of the BMP is called a Bradley IFV.
Please watch the video I linked above if you want to know more about the BMP.
Ishiyama
@Jay: Thank you for the clarification. I couldn’t tell much from the article about what was actually going on.
Kent
BMPs are armored personnel carriers. Essentially very heavily armored transport vehicles to carry soldiers around. Tanks are heavily armored guns on wheels and don’t carry passengers.
Taking out BMPs is actually potentially more damaging to Russia than taking out tanks because it could mean much higher casualties. The typical Russian BMP has a crew of 3 and can carry up to 9 passengers inside. A typical Russian tank just has a crew of 3.
So lighting up a BMP potentially kills up to 12 Russians while lighting up a tank only kills 3.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMP-3
Martin
@dmsilev: We don’t know what the potential capacity could be. The military always has some ‘if the shit hits the fan, you need to be able to ramp up to xxx’ sections in the contracts.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@terry chay: Thank you!
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Kent: Thank you too. I get the difference now. The things I learn on Balloon Juice! :-)
eddie blake
@Kent: i mean, i know you know this, but tanks don’t have wheels. our strykers do, but not tanks.
but yeah. purpose of the IFV is to allow the infantry to be able to keep up with the tanks and the mobile artillery during combined arms maneuvers.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t think they actually are a response. I think they’re a response to Russian influence campaigns and election meddling and whatever other debts have built up that the west was unable or unwilling to address (Crimea, etc.). I think Ukraine was the act of sufficient badness that permitted everyone to push their chips onto the table, and to do so on a large enough scale to serve as a long term mechanism to address this. I don’t think the majority of these sanctions are off until Putin is removed from power.
So it’s not that the economic measures are a remedy to Ukraine, as much as Ukraine was the window of opportunity to justify them.
There’s some benefit to Ukraine if it can idle the tank factory, or prevent Russia from supplying the troops, but I think the only immediate help Ukraine is getting is Javelins and stuff like that. The sanctions make it so that if Ukraine comes through this, that the political and economic environment they return to is a better one than they’ve had. This is about the next 30 years, not the next 30 days. As such, I kind of consider Ukraine a sacrificial lamb of sorts for the west to reorder things. That is no comfort to Ukraine though, even if they do get some of the spoils later on. It doesn’t bring their families back to life. Not sure if that was avoidable anyway.
Kent
Yes, but the American equivalent of the Russian BMP is probably not a Stryker but the older Bradley: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Fighting_Vehicle
eddie blake
@Kent: i know what a bradley is. lolol. i saw the pentagon wars.
it’s just that you said a tank was a heavily armored gun on wheels. no tank has wheels, nor does the bradley. the closest thing i could think of with wheels was the mobile gun version of the stryker mounting the 105mm.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@terry chay: Very interesting video. I can see that guy and his series is a good source of military fighting equipment porn.
Kent
@eddie blake: Oh, gotcha. I didn’t mean wheels literally. Just that it moves. The purpose of a tank is mobile firepower. The purpose of BMP is to carry infantry.
Jay
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan):
btw, most IFV’s are armoured against artillery shrapnel and small caliber autocannons, ( 20mm, 30mm), they are useless against large IED’s, direct artillery hits, most portable ATGM’s or a main tank gun.
Their turrets are generally equipped with small autocannons, to suppress enemy infantry, kill unarmored transport, or a low pressure 76mm gun, and possibly guided missiles, which if lucky, they might take out a tank.
In peer on peer combat, their role is to accompany tanks to the point of contact, then deploy their infantry and guns, to prevent enemy infantry (or with some variants, helicopters) from killing the tanks.
against drone attacks, main guns, tanks, proper IED’s, ATGM’s they are basically a mobile death trap when the infantry is not deployed as a screen and “eyes”. The BMP in particular.
JAFD
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): There are a lot of things which run on tracks painted Army green. tanks, ‘armored personnel carriers’. MILitary SPECification bulldozers and backhoes.
Anothre blog, couple of weeks ago, had pictures of ‘armored recovery vehicles’ – ‘tow trucks for tanks’, on tracks, with crane and winches. Wondering if the Canadians would send theirs to Ottawa…
Anyway, we’re all ignorant, just about different subjects….
Jay
@Kent:
@eddie blake:
the Bradley has the same composite armour as the Abrams, just not the same thickness.
At best the BMP has RHA with maybe reactive armour, or a cage, or sandbags added. A LAW or Carl Gustav will blow right through it, where they will just bounce off an ancient T-54,
Bradley’s can take a lot more punishment.
Jay
@JAFD:
the Flu Trux Klan has left Ottawa, now they are bitching about foreclosures, bankruptcy and having to live in their cars,
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-convoy-protest-regrets-1.6394502
Martin
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): There’s a whole spectrum of these things. Here’s my understanding of it all. Tanks come in big (main battle tank MBT) to smaller. T90 is big, T72 is smaller. Trade-offs in powerful/secure but expensive and reasonably powerful/secure and cheaper. More T72s may be better than fewer T90s. At the end of the day you need to pay for your stuff.
You then get into less heavily armored stuff. Self-propelled guns (SPG) are artillery that look a lot like a tank. But they sit way in the back and shoot over the front lines. But some armor limits what can harm them. They don’t shoot straight and fast like a bullet (direct fire), but lob their stuff up and over their front line units (indirect fire), usually miles away. They can’t see their target, someone needs to tell them where to shoot.
Armored personnel carriers (APC) are designed to bring troops into battle without tiring them out and protecting them a bit, maybe carry a medic, maybe have some ammo/food, etc. They have limited armor, but may have a medium sized gun on top. Not generally good enough to take out a tank, but a machine gun, etc. Enough for self defense but not designed to be an attack vehicle.
You have infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) that are like APCs to bring troops into battle, but have heavier weapons and serve some of the role of a tank to attack. Kind of a really light tank mixed with a personnel carrier.
I agree, they can be really hard to tell apart – they all look tank-like. I can almost never tell an IFV from an APC. I just call them all APCs. Some have treads, while others have wheels. Tanks always have treads. Some IFV and APCs are amphibious and can make a beach landing from a landing craft, cross small rivers, etc. In terms of Russian designations:
T- are tanks.
BMP- are infantry fighting vehicles.
BTR- are armored personnel carriers.
2S- are self-propelled guns.
There’s a bunch of other stuff out there as well, but these are the main categories you see.
Tanks can’t really be destroyed by infantry unless they have something like a Javelin or NLAW. They have too much armor to get through with things like grenades or rifles (small-arms fire), etc. Maybe disable it, but not destroy it. Another tank, of course, aircraft, artillery (like the SPG) can also destroy it, but guys on the ground need something like a Javelin.
The other stuff protect from rifles and regular gunfire but start to be vulnerable to grenades and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG). Anything that can kill a tank can also kill them. They generally can’t kill a tank, but can often kill each other.
All tradeoffs in terms of cost, speed, utility. The biggest US battle tank costs about $10M each and needs 2 gallons of fuel to go one mile. They are a logistical challenge.
Roger Moore
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan):
Basically, a tank has super-heavy armor and a gun designed to destroy other tanks. A BMP (and similar infantry fighting vehicles like the US Bradley) is designed to carry some infantry and provide them with more firepower than they can carry themselves. To get the most armor, tanks minimize their internal volume, holding only 3 (Russian) or 4 (Western) crew members, and those in quite cramped space. BMPs have much less armor and a lighter gun which frees up enough space to hold several infantry in addition to their crew.
Roger Moore
@Kent:
To be more specific, both tanks and IFVs (like the Bradley and BMP) are designed to provide direct fire, i.e. shooting at things visible from the firing position. There is also artillery, most of which these days is self-propelled on tracks and so looks kind of tank-like. It has even bigger guns than the tanks, but they’re designed for indirect fire, i.e. shooting at things the artillery itself can’t see.
Jay
@Martin:
nice summary,
btw, IFV’s can take on light armour, APC’s, nope.
the gun in the turret or the added missile system is the difference.
depending on the gun, BPM’s are either IFV’s or APC’s, but then you have all the variants from ambulances to engineering vehicles built on the BMP chassis.
get’s kinda hard to tell on a grainy video.
Roger Moore
@Martin:
Yes and no. To get their super-heavy armor, tanks have to concentrate it on the front, the direction they’re most likely to encounter enemy fire. They have comparatively thin armor on the sides and especially the back. It’s still heavy enough to shrug off rifle fire, but even old-fashioned weapons like the bazooka can get through it.
This is why it’s so important for tanks to be supported by their own infantry. Without infantry support, the enemy infantry can hide until the tanks pass and then attack them from the rear. This is obviously still really dangerous, but it’s better than trying to attack the tanks head on.
VeniceRiley
This is alarming https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1507200151689084931?s=21&t=FNOPOx6EQ0A3-qUjgTsE3g
and this is good news https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1507193029064593409?s=21&t=6BYiQWBr0iT6tDi4ZSsTbw
sanjeevs
@VeniceRiley: What’s alarming?
Three days in the forest and those soldiers are dying. Classic Putin.
Brachiator
@Kent:
Isn’t Naftali Bennett currently the prime minister of Israel?
Aussie sheila
@CaseyL:
I agree. This is both a military war, and a war against ethno nationalist authoritarianism. The latter virus has been weaponised by conservatives all over the so called ‘liberal west’. In my country to a lesser extent, but not as to the ‘culture war’ issues. The Ukrainian people not only deserve our strongest support in the military war, but also our thanks in waking up western democracies as to what was being done to them under their noses.
I truly believe Ukraine is the Geurnica of the 21st century, but this time, democratic forces appear to be stronger, and the outcome is not a ‘given’.
I also hope that the left in the democracies take this lesson to heart. The attack on oligarchy cannot be confined to Putin’s besties. This fight back must be taken to the heart of the complex web of tax lurks and perks that underpin international impunity for the arseholes.
I just wish this lesson did not have to paid for by innocent Ukrainian men, women and children.
YY_Sima Qian
@Aussie sheila:
Chinese Australians might disagree that the latter virus has been weaponized to a lesser extent in Australia…
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
have a new young “Associate” at work, ( one of several). Indian, bhramin class, had to get a jerb because he pissed away his first 4 semesters partying on, so his family made him get a jerb.
he’s finding that his politics and his perceptions arn’t at all popular and is getting pushback in a city that backs the farmers with an Indo-Canadian community that is mostly from the Punjab, dating from the 1900’s along with an old white population that is “woke”.
I don’t think he is going to last. He’s pretty useless and spends too much time surfing Indian pop, hiding from customers and not enough time learning the basics of his jerb.
Jay
Pretty good overview,
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg
Low Key Swagger
@Jay: That’s an hour well spent.
Jinchi
Sure, let’s not accuse the man of being anti-semitic just because he worked to start a war by painting swastikas all around Kharkiv. I’m sure this is great comfort to all those shelering in the Metro from Russian bombs.
Central Planning
@Martin: not only that, but “the Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS) is used to prioritize national defense-related contracts/orders throughout the U.S. supply chain in order to support military, energy, homeland security, emergency preparedness, and critical infrastructure requirements.”
The net result of DPAS is they are always head of the line for ANYTHING they purchase. So many of my customers have had orders delayed by that. It’s ridiculous how far out lead times are, and the customers DGAF.
Geminid
@Brachiator: Bennet has been Prime Minister since Israel’s new government took over last June (or early July? ). The 8-party coalition was engineered by the Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, whose Yesh Atid party has 18 Knesset members. Lapid had to offer Bennet the first rotation as Prime Minister to get him and his 6 member Yamina party on board.
debbie
I just listened to an NPR interview with Lawrence Sheets, a former long-time Russian correspondent who is now in Ukraine for some consulting group. He was talking about all the disinformation, but at the end, when asked about Putin, he said something was going on with him health-wise. Putin walks with a limp and his right side is noticeably weakened.
Just thought this might be of some interest. The audio is usually available after 9:00 am.
Geminid
@Geminid: U.S. Secretary of State Blinken will visit Israel this Saturday, and is exected to confer with PM Bennett, Foreign Minister Lapid, Defense Minister Gantz, and President Herzog. Blinken will also visit Ramallah in the West Bank to talk with Palestinian Authority President Abbas.
Afterwards, the Secretary of State will travel to Rabat, Morocco and Algiers, Algeria. While in Morocco Blinken is expected to confer with the Crown Prince and de-facto head of the United Arab Emirates.
Baud
@Geminid:
He’s racking up the frequent flyer miles.
Geminid
@debbie: Sounds like it’s time for Putin to retire in order to spend more time with his family. I guess they’ll have to come to him, though.
Geminid
@Baud: The visit to Algeria is interesting. Algeria has been pretty aloof from other countries, and I think it’s been a while since a high ranking U.S. official has visited there.
Baud
@Geminid:
I wonder if Blinken will bring up Manafort when he talks to the UAE crown prince.
Liminal Owl
путин хуйло!
My friend Siderea blogs about many things. I referred the Thin Black Duke to her most recent post, about the phrase “Putin khuylo,” and he said post it on BJ. So here you go. I recommend reading the whole essay.
https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1757108.html
Geminid
@Baud: Manafort is probably too small a potato for Blinken and bin Zalman to discuss. There might be an FBI liason at the U.S. embassy in Abu Dhabi who talks to his Emirati counterpart about such matters.
Blinken probably will politely chew bin Zalman out over his nation hosting Syrian President Assad recently, and bin Zalman will gripe about Houthi drone attacks on UAE oil facilities. They will certainly talk about the impending JCPOA and the possibility that the U.S. will take the Iranian Revolutionary Guard off it’s list of terrorist organizations.
Another Scott
@Liminal Owl: Thanks for the pointer!
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Liminal Owl: You can tell her that is a truly excellent post.
Carlo Graziani
@Liminal Owl:
She’s a genius. I wish I could write like that.
lee
Here’s one video of Americans fighting in Ukraine.
https://v.redd.it/sgerwh84eep81
There’s another one around I can’t find of the same guy.
Ixnay
@Liminal Owl: wonderful piece. Shared, thank you.
debbie
@Liminal Owl:
Nice post. I see I’ve been tossing “schmuck” around far too casually! ?