(Ukraine Will Prevail by Oleksandra Olishevska; found here)
I want to start tonight with an excerpt from President Zelenskyy’s speech to the NATO senior leaders yesterday. It’s only about 3 and a half minutes long, but it really gets good at the 1:25 second mark when Zelenskyy goes up one side of Viktor Orban and down the other!
Zelensky doing what -in my dreams- should be the role of the President of Council and Commission.
There was one who used to do it in private.
The days of member states hiding their sovereign decisions and blaming Brussels may be coming to an end. pic.twitter.com/iZckTN7b92
— Pablo Pérez (@PabloPerezA) March 25, 2022
I’m pretty sure they still haven’t found all the pieces of Viktor Orban yet, let alone reassembled them!
Much more after the jump!
The Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of Russia’s General Staff Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoy gave a briefing today about Russia’s ongoing reinvasion of Ukraine. And it was a doozy!
March 25. Interfax-Russia.ru – The possibility of storming the cities blocked by the Russian military in Ukraine is not ruled out, but the main goal is the complete liberation of Donbass, said Sergey Rudskoy, head of the Main Operational Directorate (GOU) of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces. “Initially, we did not plan to storm them in order to prevent destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians,” Rudskoy said at a briefing on Friday. “Although we do not rule out such a possibility, however, as individual groupings complete the tasks set, and they are successfully solved, our forces and means will be concentrated on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbass,” said the head of the General Staff.
According to him, a month after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian military blocked Kyiv, gained full control over Kherson and most of the Zaporozhye region. “Offensive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are carried out in various directions. As a result, Kyiv, Kharkov, Chernihiv, Sumy and Nikolaev are blocked by Russian troops. Kherson and most of the Zaporozhye region are under full control,” Rudskoy said.
He clarified that the blockade of Ukrainian cities is carried out “with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow not only to tie down their forces and do not give them the opportunity to strengthen their grouping in the Donbas, but also will not allow them to do this until complete liberation by the Russian army of the territories of the DNR and LNR”. Rudskoy also said that the Russian military had defeated 16 major military airfields in Ukraine.
16 main military airfields from which combat sorties of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were carried out were defeated,” he said. “39 storage bases and arsenals were destroyed, which contained up to 70% of all stocks of military equipment, materiel and fuel, as well as more than 1 million 54 thousand tons of ammunition,” said the head of the General Staff. He also stressed that the Russian military had gained dominance in the skies over Ukraine in two days.
“The tasks are being carried out taking into account minimizing losses among personnel and minimizing damage to the civilian population. With the start of a special military operation, air supremacy was won within the first two days,” Rudskoy said.
Rudskoy’s briefing is all over the place. A lot of this is clearly intended as propaganda for domestic Russian consumption to continue to push the bullshit story that everything is going exceedingly well for the Russian military in Ukraine. Given that, until we see a change in actual Russian behavior in the battlespace, my professional assessment is that we can discount the Phase 1 is over and we’re starting Phase 2, which is consolidating our successes in eastern and southern Ukraine talk. As we’ve discussed a number of times, what Rudskoy is describing as Phase 2 was what most people expected Phase 1 to actually be. Even as a lot of those folks were discounting the likelihood that there would even be a Phase 1 because they thought Putin was just posturing.
Does what Rudskoy briefed today make theater strategic sense? Definitely. I’m just not sure that this is anything other than propaganda for a domestic audience with a secondary intent of being a maskirovka for everyone outside of Russia in the attempt to have elites and notables that want the war to end to pressure Ukraine to cut a deal with Putin. I’ve spent the past month watching far too many of the same people who were completely convinced that Putin wouldn’t reinvade and that the way to ensure that was for Ukraine to preemptively surrender by giving Putin what he wants – dropping Ukrainian claims to the Russian occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; as well as Ukrainain demilitarization; abandonment of pursuing NATO membership; and consideration of abandoning pursuit of EU membership – immediately pivot to Ukraine has to give Putin a way to save face and create a diplomatic off ramp for him. This briefing is going to be catnip for that crowd. Ukraine should ignore it and continue to do what they’re doing: seek to inflict so much pain on the Russian military as to achieve a successful battlefield termination that sets the conditions to secure the peace post conflict termination.
Especially as Russia has moved fresh troops into Belarus to backfill it’s assault force staging them for entry into Ukraine and has sortied three ships, which have transited the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov, to replace the ones sunk or damaged yesterday. We now have confirmation that one Alligator class ship, the Orsk, was sunk and two other Russian Navy ships were damaged, moved out of the Port of Berdyansk, and are likely limping back to their home port for repairs. The Pentagon has now confirmed that Russia has pulled troops from the territories it is occupying in Georgia and they are on their way to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s position on negotiations have not changed and Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, once again clearly stated them today:
No consensus in negotiations yet. Ukraine’s position is clear: ceasefire, security guarantees, no compromises on territorial integrity. But Russia sticks to ultimatums. To stimulate a more constructive approach we need two things: more sanctions and more military aid for Ukraine.
I’ll give President Macron credit, he is convinced that he can negotiate an end to Putin’s reinvasion of Ukraine by being in almost daily contact with Putin. Pretty much every readout of those contacts go something like (I’m paraphrasing here): “President Macron had a call with President Putin, President Putin provided him with a lengthy explanation of the “special operation”. President Macron does not believe President Putin is negotiating in good faith.” Today, President Macron announced that the French, the Turks, and the Greeks are planning an exceptional humanitarian mission to evacuate civilians from Mariupol. And that President Macron would be discussing it with President Putin within two to three days. Here is a verbatim translation via tweet thread:
- [Thread] Here is the exact and complete verbatim of what President Macron said tonight about this humanitarian operation for #Mariupol: “I have a special thought for the inhabitants of Mariupol who are experiencing one of the greatest tragedies.”
- “That is why we decided yesterday to launch an exceptional humanitarian operation, which I will have the opportunity to discuss with President Putin in the coming hours.”
- “We are going to launch a humanitarian operation, in conjunction with Turkey and Greece, to evacuate all those who wish to leave Mariupol. My team was able to have the mayor of Mariupol a few hours ago to organize this with him.”
- “We will organize things in the best possible conditions. This city of more than 450,000 inhabitants now has only 150,000 inhabitants living there in dramatic situations. We must obtain a cessation of hostilities there and act on the humanitarian level.”
- In response to another press question: “We already had discussions with the mayor of Mariupol and the Ukrainian authorities in full transparency with President Zelensky. We will then negotiate with the Russian side.”
- “I hope to involve the maximum number of stakeholders in this operation. The sooner, the better. We are putting ourselves in a position to do so in the next few days”.
- “On this basis, I will have a new discussion with President Putin within 48-72 hours at the latest to work out the details and secure the terms [of the operation]. This is one of the most urgent points and our duty.” [End]
President Macron is the most optimistic person on the planet, the most naive person on the planet, and/or the absolutely STUPIDEST person on the planet if he thinks this is going to work. He’s wasted a month’s worth of his time trying to get Putin to stop doing what Putin is doing and all Putin does is lecture him about the alternate history and mythology Putin has accepted as reality and make unrealistic demands that he expects Macron to convey to the Ukrainians. As much as this humanitarian operation is needed, there is no way in hell it is going to happen. And if, by some remote chance it does, Russia is going to do what it always does, what it has consistently done in Ukraine, what it has done in Syria: attack the humanitarian relief efforts. Putin doesn’t look at humanitarian relief operations as something covered by the Geneva Conventions he looks at them as targets!
Here’s the remarks of Putin’s chief negotiator, they are not the statements of someone negotiating in good faith and/or empowered to do so:
Putin's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky and foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin just made fiery speeches to rally Russians around the Ukraine war.
Their rhetoric provided an alarming window into Russia's totalitarian tilt. Some more details /1
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 24, 2022
- The overarching theme was that Russia is facing an existential crisis Medinsky said it bluntly: “Russia’s very existence is at stake today” This appeals to long-standing conspiracies about Western efforts to dismember Russia, which gained popularity in the late 1990s /2
- In a striking parallel to Soviet-era allegations of “revisionism,” deviations from the Kremlin’s version of Russian history were described as acts of treason Medinsky accused those who “vilify Russian history in works of culture” are “worse than traitors” /3
- Themes from Putin’s recent “scum and traitors” speech were also invoked, as warnings of fifth columns inside Russia abounded Medinsky stated that he was unable to completely purge traitors from the Ministry of Culture. This opens the door for more crackdowns /4
- Russia was also presented as a country that was under attack from hostile ideologies Naryshkin warned that Russia was in a struggle against “totalitarian liberal regimes supported by the West” Anti-war protests will no doubt be framed as unpatriotic stooges of the West /5
- Naryshkin also justified military force as an acceptable means of preserving Russia’s great power status Naryshkin praised those who chose military service to prevent the West from consigning Russia to the “sidelines of world history” /6
For some reason I cannot fathom, other than cowardice, the International Committee of the Red Cross, which pulled its personnel out of Ukraine because it was too risky, is facilitating Russia’s attempts to relocate Ukrainians from Mariupol and other parts of eastern and southern Ukraine in Rostov on Don in Russia. The UN has also identified, via satellite imagery, mass graves in Mariupol.
GENEVA, March 25 (Reuters) – The head of the U.N. human rights team in Ukraine said on Friday that monitors had received more information about mass graves in the besieged port city of Mariupol, including one that appeared to hold 200 bodies.
“We have got increasing information on mass graves that are there,” Matilda Bogner told journalists by video link from Ukraine, saying some of the evidence came from satellite images.
The Russians are not negotiating in good faith. People need to stop deluding themselves that Ukraine can negotiate its way out of this war.
Here’s video from inside the Mariupol Drama House shortly after the attack last week:
Another video from the theatre showing the collapsed part of the building: pic.twitter.com/FXwtoVJJ9h
— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) March 25, 2022
Грати published the testimonies of woman who was forcibly taken to Russia from Mariupol. She also provided the drawings of a girl who drew them in a bomb shelter. On the last picture there is only a few words: “I'm terribly scared. I'm terribly scared. I'm very very scared”. pic.twitter.com/4LIMJWcl3R
— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) March 25, 2022
We also now have an official estimate of the number of Ukrainians killed when the Drama House was bombed. 300 hundred were in the building at the time.
Melitipol:
The mayor of Melitopol spoke on ?? TV about a looming humanitarian crisis in the city, with food and medicine running out. Humanitarian aid was sent this morning from Zaporizhzhia but held up in Russian checkpoints for 8h… /1https://t.co/dgMgBlByz8
— Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) March 24, 2022
- The aid is now on the way to Melitopol but the mayor in exile fears that it might be plundered by Russian occupation forces. The mayor said that the Russian military was “behaving horribly” in the city, kidnapping people and conducting illegal searches of businessmen. /2
- Fedorov also spoke about attempts by the Russians to force teachers to start teaching Russian in schools. After the local education department refused to cooperate with them, they, according to the mayor, began to put direct pressure on schools. /3
- The mayor said that before the invasion there were Russian schools and classes in Russian in local schools. Fedorov stressed that before the Russian invasion, most Melitopol residents spoke Russian and were not oppressed because of it. /end
- This morning, a humanitarian convoy consisting of trucks & buses reached the occupied city of Melitopol. It unloaded food, medicine, personal hygiene products. In a video the mayor Fedorov said that on the way back, buses will take out up to 350 residents
Kharkiv:
Russians fired on the Nova Poshta postal department in Kharkiv, where Kharkiv residents were receiving humanitarian aid. Here the video of a rocket hitting a crowd of civilians in line#RussiansWarCrimes pic.twitter.com/BvszqcI0s1
— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) March 25, 2022
They live in fear, but hold together and try to support each other in any possible way. Here, children who are hiding in the #Kharkiv subway from Russian bombs are dancing and laughing with animators. pic.twitter.com/O6dWo6ArVa
— voicesofchildren (@voices_org_ua) March 25, 2022
Chernihiv:
A dramatic Sky News report from sieged town of Chernihiv in Northern Ukraine: shelling and escape of the filming crew, short interview with a wounded driver. And his final phrase before he leaves for hospital.
Worth watching. But graphic.
— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) March 25, 2022
Here’s some visual evidence that Russia is using white phosphorus bombs in Ukraine just as they did in Syria.
The moment when a Ukrainian soldier you know posts on his social media a photo of a Russian phosphorus bomb attack he just witnessed from his position…? pic.twitter.com/Oh1FU9Fkuf
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) March 25, 2022
This is a long thread with lots of pictures and some videos documenting Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Click through to see the rest of the tweets with images and video:
As of March 25, our team has documented at least 66 cases of attacks on healthcare infrastructure in Ukraine. As a result, at least 66 healthcare facilities have already been damaged. Six hospitals were destroyed. pic.twitter.com/Z0ovV4XvZn
— Mary Kravchenko ?? (@sea_inside3) March 25, 2022
You’re daily bayraktar:
New footage released of Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drones directing Artillery/MRLS fire and conducting strikes against Russian targets.#Russia #ukraine pic.twitter.com/cSqmXYXscP
— BlueSauron?️ (@Blue_Sauron) March 23, 2022
Open thread!
Mike in NC
Putin is a gangster who can’t be trusted farther than you can throw him.
debbie
Was Orban physically in the meeting room during that address?
Those shoes are all over my FB feed. Just heartbreaking.
Gin & Tonic
Thanks, Adam, for highlighting that Zelensky speech to the EU Council. Truly a shame neither you nor the B-J audience understand Ukrainian, because reading the subtitles conveys about 10% of the message, IMO. He is flaying Orban with every word, a reading worthy of an Olivier or Gielgud for drama.
Also, if anyone in the audience believes that Rudskoy presentation for even a minute, please reach out to me privately via Adam ASAP, as I have some real estate on offer that you will definitely be interested in.
Gin & Tonic
Re the ICRC
Sanjeevs
I wonder if Hanssen and Aldrich Ames have access to media from Supermax.
Wonder how they’d feel that treason is now the fashionable thing amongst the conservatives across the West.
Medicine Man
@Adam – Thank you for all your work here.
I realize these days that every time I’ve used the word “hate” previously in my life I was naive.
trollhattan
@Mike in NC: Al Capone with nukes. Just great.
Many thanks as always, Adam.
Ishiyama
Those troops in Belarus are a threat to invade in a fresh movement. It’s a problem that Ukraine has to prepare against. Pulling resources away from where they are currently needed the most. I hope that the entire border with Belarus is already thickly sown with effectives.
Sparkedcat
For all intents and purposes the Russian Federation has lost this war. Putin will be judged as having made one of the worst strategic decisions in history. He has united the West, unified Europe and created in NATO what is the most powerful military alliance so far in human history. His decision to invade Ukraine has ended any dreams of a Russian empire.
MomSense
Favorite tweet regarding the announcement that Greece Turkey and France to do a humanitarian mission in Mariupol.
I’ve said it before. Not only is Putin making NATO and the EU stronger, he’s managed to unite the Turks and the Greeks. Rob Riggs https://twitter.com/Colorado_Rob/status/1507455843754979330?s=20&t=Z6eeoIhPJ4wmVlGw3fOO3Q
Today is Greek Independence Day.
Peale
Ugh. NATO has had dictatorships before, and I believe elected Communist governments. But I don’t think they’ve never had one openly aligning itself with the adversary. At 58, we’ll probably have to deal with Orban’s perfidy for 25 more years.
Chetan Murthy
@Medicine Man:
These last … seven years have been an education in how to hate, haven’t they? A real education. We’re all gonna need therapy when and if this is all over. And by that I mean all of “this”, including the madness happening in our country and so many other democracies.
West of the Rockies
Darkly, I find myself wishing a 1,000 Bayrakters a day came down from above.
Intellectually I know some of those invading troops have to be terrified and stupefied. I hope they choose surrender.
bbleh
Aw MAN he is good! I mean … note to self: never EVER cross a comedian!
Chetan Murthy
@Peale:
I hope the Hungarians know their duty, and oust the bastard. By any means necessary.
West of the Rockies
OT, but with European reunification of sorts, is there any chance the UK could rejoin the EU, Boris be damned?
VeniceRiley
Phosphorus is nasty. I have no doubt chemical attacks are in his deck of cards to play.
But Adam, can you give me a take on this at DKos about the state of the Russian military and society in general? It sound s like a nightmare even when they aren’t at war!
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/25/2087808/-A-response-to-More-about-why-the-Russian-army-sucks
dmsilev
For excellence in mordant humor, I have to give today’s prize to the Tweet I saw this morning describing the report of a Russian commander killed by his own men who ran over him with an armored vehicle as ‘friendly tire’.
(somewhat sadly, ‘friendly track’ loses in alliteration what it gains in technical accuracy)
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: Oddly enough, I am actually making a concerted effort not to go down that path. FWIW I think we are going to get through this (I mean all of it) and I want to be able to looking myself in the eye at the end of it all. The GOP, et al., they can’t make me be like them unless I let it happen.
Morzer
@dmsilev: They tragged him!
Villago Delenda Est
“We’ve accomplished all of our objectives for phase 1 of the Special Military Operation. Now it’s time to move on to the next set of objectives for phase 2.”
Ksmiami
Send the fucking planes, anti-artillery and drones to crush the Russians in Ukraine – fucking monsters. Nuts
bbleh
Anyway, all caution stipulated, but the switch in Russian rhetoric is interesting. Why do it now? And even more importantly, how much of it is echoed to the domestic audience? If they’re really repeating this on all channels — not just to enemies they’d like to lull, but to people they want to convince — then mmmmaybe there really is something to it? Mmmmaybe they’ve just decided to cut their losses, try to partition Ukraine, and declare victory? Of course, even that wouldn’t be easy: I don’t know how amenable most residents of the Donbas are to Russian occupation, and I can’t imagine the Ukrainian government — or the West — would simply acquiesce in a de facto partition.
This has not been Vladimir Vladimirovich’s best month ..
ETA, and I gotta say, Biden has handled this absolutely superbly. The political leadership, the material support, the propaganda (!), and very importantly, the stepping back when it helps to let others get the spotlight … in his role, and in his way, he’s as good as Zelensky.
And given the way Putin fked with the US for lo these many years, including running an asset as president, this has to be sweet revenge. I can’t but imagine Biden ruminating on this situation at some quiet moment and looking like the cat who just finished the cream.
dmsilev
@Villago Delenda Est: Theory: Russian military strategy is being run by a team of management consultants from let’s say BCG. It’d explain the language, the ineffectiveness, and the large amounts of money that seem to have vanished into thin air.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: Let me be frank:
I see no evidence that my state is preparing for when Putin’s party takes over our Federal government. No evidence that Biden is preparing for that. None at all.
So what, are we supposed to strap on suicide vests and drive to schools full of little MAGAt children, when the Fash take over? Or just expose our jugulars so the Fash can neatly dispatch us?
Omnes Omnibus
@dmsilev: I still put at a 30% chance that they just fucked up and ran him over by accident.
VeniceRiley
Meanwhile, fuel tanks next to the sunken Orsk satellite shots are still smokin’.
https://twitter.com/Maxar/status/1507398872074756135?s=20&t=kHlYeC3Kd2NsnqzJ2Q9wow
Ksmiami
@Mike in NC: Worse than a gangster as gangsters generally don’t target innocent women and children
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: If we need to become like them, to survive this war we’re in, this war for our Republic, then yeah, I’m down with that. Only victors get to lament the moral shortcuts they took, only victors.
I want victor’s justice, not the silence of the graves of the vanquished.
bbleh
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah entirely possible, but in politics, perception is reality.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: I didn’t say don’t fight back. I also didn’t tell you how to deal with what is going on. I talked about something I was doing as a way to walk through this world and retain my humanity. You gotta do what you gotta. And so do I.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@West of the Rockies: I took an archeological tour of Greece in 2018 run by a British company, and one of the people on the tour with me was a French woman who lived in England. She told me she was not surprised that the UK had voted yes on Brexit, because in every other EU country, one would see a flagpole flying the flag of the nation, and another flagpole flying the EU flag right next to it. She said she had NEVER seen this in the UK. When I traveled to the Netherlands and Belgium the next year, I saw what she meant. Lots of EU flags alongside the nation’s flag
Another tell: the UK never changed over to the Euro.
Villago Delenda Est
@dmsilev: Needz moar powerpoint slides.
Chetan Murthy
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): I instantly wonder if that’s true in Scotland, or just in England (and, sure, in Wales/NI).
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: He’s a great orator.
VeniceRiley
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): And boy, will they regret it when they have to look at King Charles’ mug on the money.
Villago Delenda Est
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): “The wogs begin at Calais.”
bbleh
@Chetan Murthy: @Omnes Omnibus: I think there’s a lot of real estate between passive surrender and submerging all humanity in pursuit of victory. I was surprised by the level of vitriol that became apparent during the Trump years — of which I believe Trump merely a symptom, and the causes elsewhere — and not being a cishet Christianist White male, I’m well aware of what can happen to me and mine should the Trumpists gain the power they think they deserve (it happened 80 years ago, after all, and it’s happening in Russia today).
BUT, even though I’ll proselytize incessantly, and donate and organize energetically, and should it come to it, drop them the moment they set foot on family land, I don’t think I’ll ever hate them the way I think they hate — and fear — me.
There is such a thing as “just war,” and it doesn’t mean one loses one’s moral standing.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Chetan Murthy: I will be in Edinburgh next month (trip planned a year ago, when COVID should be over by now, dammit) and will report back on what I see. (I managed to talk myself into a 2nd booster shot last Friday since it had been 6 months and I’m 70 yo etc.)
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@VeniceRiley: Ha ha.
Morzer
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): The more significant factor, I think, is that it was always very tempting for UK politicians to bash the EU to goose their ratings, while not expecting (or wanting) anything to change. 20 years of conspiracy theories, 20 years of politicians going along with crazy – it has a profound effect on society.
Nettoyeur
@Mike in NC: His problem is that loses the dwarf toss by being an asshole.
Another Scott
@debbie: It’s a very powerful monument that I was fortunate to see on a visit to
Budapest (J had a conference there). The Terror House is amazing.
It wasn’t that long ago. Budapest’s history should be a reminder for all of us (along with so many places around the world, and even in the USA). As Orban’s 2010 election should have be a warning of the fragility of liberal democracy.
:-(
Zelenskyy’s little speech was excellent.
Cheers,
Scott.
terry chay
One problem I alluded to yesterday is that we are listening to or amplifying political analysts opining on economic measures, I believe one thread highlighted this. In general, a trap is to consider something only from the dimension one is is an expert in, for instance evaluating the sanctions solely from a military standpoint because that is what one knows. Sanctions are a strategic one and I believed designed to wind Russia back to the same economic gap in 1980’s preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union a decade later. It shouldn’t be evaluated in terms of the one month of this war but in terms of the decade that Putin and his ilk are to remain in power.
In light of this, I suggest one watches/reads these two profiles on Daleep Singh, the architect of the current sanctions:
These sanctions were based on the art of the possible. One cannot look at them solely based on a fiat of what you imagine in your head. Similarly, their design is not just for what we would wish in an ideal world (that Putin would quit Ukraine) but in what will happen on the other side of this invasion: the new world order that it has wrought.
As for their effectiveness, if they weren’t effective, then Russia wouldn’t be reacting to them. The reaction is proof that they are way more effective than we can imagine. In fact their reaction has gotten Russia to shoot themselves in the foot. Instead of reading some “russian expert” who fell asleep in his microeconomics class freshman year in his ivy league tell you about how “brilliant” Putin is being nationalizing foreign assets or demanding to be paid for oil in rubles (when all oil contracts are in USD), I suggest you read this historical analysis of what happened the last time this country pulled this same shit on the world. Then come at me with a straight face and tell me out Putin has once again, outsmarted the West.
The reality is there are people just as smart as us who have been stewing for 8-20 years over mistakes made and they have tamed it through. Just as our military studied what was wrong with Ukraine’s in 2014-2016 and endeavored to fix it, so too we did it on the economic front.
Kalakal
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): That’s absolutely true about the flags. For decades British pols have used the EU as a scapegoat for their own shortcomings, “don’t blame us, it’s because of them”, aided and abetted by a complicit press. I was shocked by the result and am still bloody furious.
There’s always been anti EU groups of MPs in both main parties since we joined, they made John Major’s life hell in the 90s as he was operating with a very small majority. He called them the ‘ the bastards’ and meant it. But until the last decade or so they were an idiot minority, like flat earthers
A tell tale sign was the turn out for EU elections, regularly down around 20%, it’s how detritus like Farage got to be one, noone bothers to vote so nutters get an open run. He’s failed to get elected to parliament 7 times, last time to a guy dressed as a dolphin
Mallard Filmore
This YouTube video says essentially the same thing, but for different reasons from what I have seen here: demographics, poor funding of education … :
title: “How Russia Will Die | Peter Zeihan”
link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw
Best quote, near the very end of the vid: (due to importing 80% energy and 80% inputs that allow them to feed their population, and the impact that future sanctions on China would have):
50 years of Chinese strategic planning, the Russians have torched in a month.
Chetan Murthy
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Congratulations! I got my second booster in late Feb[1], and aside from a day of fever chills, it was all good. It has really mellowed my mood in public transit: I no longer yell at antimaskers and dicknoses: fuck if I care whether they die, fuck if I care. They can’t be arsed to take care of their own health, let ’em.
[1] I’m 57, so I lied and use a fake name, no address/ID/insurance. Feel no guilt whatsoever about it.
Peale
@Mallard Filmore: yeah. Putin declaring himself the leader of a new Eurasian economic sphere free from the horrors of liberal tyranny takes a few loops out of the belt and road.
Kalakal
@Morzer: It goes back longer than 20 years, in the 50s both Churchill and Gaitskill were publically against the UK having anything to do with proposed pan European institutions. In 1975 Labour members voted 2 to 1 to leave and it was part of their 1979 manifesto. In the 80s it switched to Tory loons. UKIP started in 1999 and it ballooned from then
Kalakal
@West of the Rockies: Eventually I think they will but not for quite a few years. I can see an independent Scotland joining
Soprano2
Is the use of white phosphorus a war crime? If it’s not it should be. That’s nasty shit.
Adam L Silverman
@VeniceRiley: A post by someone using a nym quoting his or her or their anonymous friend?
Raoul Paste
A couple down the street has lampposts on either side of the driveway. Recently the lights were green, for Saint Patrick’s Day.
They are now blue and yellow
Another Scott
Strength to Ukraine and her people.
As bleak as it looks at times now, we should remember that things can change quickly.
E.g.
Forward!
Cheers,
Scott.
Morzer
@Kalakal: True, but the last 20 years were the ones that brought the boil of UKIP to its full, putrescent, Russian-backed extent.
bbleh
@Mallard Filmore: Very cool.
I don’t know if the situation is quite that dramatic, and I don’t think the lessons of Russia-Ukraine are directly applicable to China-Taiwan (FSM forbid) — China is the second-largest economy in the world, while Russia’s is the size of Texas, and China’s nuclear capacity is qualitatively less than Russia’s — but certainly the response of the West (who’d’a thunk Germany would do what it’s done?!) has to give a lot of would-be imperialist autocrats pause.
There is sweet satisfaction that Putin was on the bleeding edge of discovering this. And I thank every god living or dead that Joe Biden is president right now …
Omnes Omnibus
@bbleh: That’s rather my point. You can fight them without becoming them. And, to me, not becoming like them is an element of the fight. Our side is better.
Cacti
A Russian brigade commander got fragged by one of his troops today.
One of his men ran his ass over with a vehicle.
NotMax
@Soprano2
U.S. used it on the populace in Fallujah, along with also using thermobaric weaponry..
And yes, both deserve to be banned universally.
TonyG
According to the Reverend Chris Hedges (an RT employee until they stopped broadcasting), Russia was “baited” into these attacks on civilians. A long time ago I had some respect for that man. Not anymore.
Kalakal
In the light of Russia pulling troops from its garrison in Georgia it will be ‘interesting’ to see how the locals react. Also has anyone any knowledge of how stable/popular the Russian presence in Moldova/Transnistria is? Russian has very poor options for reinforcing/supplying it’s forces there.
bbleh
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes. And I’m willing to go even further and say that it’s behavior rather than character, at least insofar as the one does not de facto determine the other.
Then again, I’m a nice guy. And I’ll still drop them if they step a foot over the line ?
Another Scott
‘Tiz a puzzle!!
(via CherylRofer)
Cheers,
Scott.
terry chay
President Macron is none of those things you claim. He is a politician running for re-election in a country where the next two candidates are both right-wingers in the pocket of Putin. The guy is triangulating and, from the perspective of his re-election chances, it is working.
He is also trying to build up capital for a European-only military entity separate from NATO, he only gets that if he can hew an avenue distinct from the U.S. or NATO itself which seems to be doing fine, much to his chagrin. (Is it bad really? After all, the inspiration for it was Trump being president 2017-2020).
Calling him “stupid” because we see things from our perspective and not the political reality in France really is damning us as the ones being stupid.
bbleh
@terry chay: Concur
Martin
Taylor Hawkins died. Shit.
Another Scott
Heh. Excellent.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cacti
@bbleh: China has got to be fuming at how Putin has managed to revitalize the NATO alliance just as things were starting to look shaky.
VeniceRiley
@Adam L Silverman: I read something similar elsewhere the other day on a similar vein of Russia’s gangs of thieves that had similar allegations but I’m sitting in the dark.
eta: I suppose I am looking for a “Haven’t heard anything like that.” Or a “I have heard worse from better sources I cannot name.” kind of comment.
Martin
@Another Scott: There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen. – Lenin
debbie
@TonyG:
Seconded.
Martin
@bbleh: No, I think it’s that bad for Russia. It’s not that I think they’ll fail to be a country, but their image of what Russia is, their self-image is done for.
Adam L Silverman
@terry chay: I have graduate level training in both macroeconomics and political economy. I was the lesson author at USAWC for the core course lessons in macro and in economic power.
Martin
@NotMax: We’re not a signatory to those treaties.
That’s not a defense, but if you want to know why the US feels empowered to use those weapons, it’s because we feel entitled to use those weapons. We’re also not a signatory to the ICC. So, y’know…
Another Scott
It’s just amazing what those satellites can see – and show the public – these days.
(via KyivIndependent.com news feed)
Cheers,
Scott.
bbleh
@Martin: Lol sorry I wasn’t clear. It’s terrible for Russia. VVP has screwed this up about as badly as can be imagined. I meant it’s not as bad as the vid suggested for China. Bad, but not that bad.
bbleh
@Cacti: Right? After his asset spent four years chewing away at both the foundations and the structure of NATO, VVP has managed to undo it — and more! — in the space of mere weeks!
Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
(And did I mention hats off to Joe Biden? I did? Well, he gets seconds.)
Chetan Murthy
@bbleh:
Who could have predicted that Biden was the President we needed, both for covid, and for WWIII ? And for pushing civil rights, esp. for transgender Americans ? Who could have predicted that ? Not me, that’s for sure.
Adam L Silverman
@terry chay: Who do you fucking think is writing these posts? I was in the room with the commanding general of US Army Europe in 2014 as his senior civilian advisor! I don’t remember you there. I have been working this problem set since January 2014. I wrote the strategic assessment on the Maidan movement, oligarchs and kleptocracy, and Putin’s strategic intentions and objectives regarding Ukraine in February 2014 for US Army Europe and US European Command. I have been working this problem set, in whole or in part, ever since. I have two professional publications dealing with these issues. And I’ve been working on Putin’s involvement in Syria since 2012. First for US Army Central and CENTCOM, then for the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy, and for successive command elements of Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve and for Special Operations Command.
I’m one of the professionals who has spent the past eight years thinking about what I got right and got wrong. I was wrong in 2014 and Ukrainians are dying today because of it! The only salve for my conscience is the decision on what to and not to do in 2014 was made way above my pay grade and that of the three star general I was working for and advising. And that a lot of other very good, very experienced, and very knowledgeable people made the same mistake.
My concerns aren’t about whether the sanctions and other economic measures are properly conceptualized and implemented. They are. My concerns are about the very real fact that kinetic warfare cannot be defeated with soft power.
Don’t you dare fucking lecture me that I’m not paying attention to the right things. I’ve done nothing but pay attention to them for eight years!
Who the fuck do you think you are?
Adam L Silverman
@Soprano2: It is. The Russians also used it in Syria.
Lyrebird
@VeniceRiley:
I think one of Kamil Galeev’s recent threads covered that.
I wish his photos had alt text or captions, but even without knowing what most of them are, a reader can definitely learn alot.
Adam L Silverman
@Kalakal: They pulled them out over two weeks ago. I posted the videos in an update the day they did.
Adam L Silverman
@VeniceRiley: I’ll give it a look and deal with it in tomorrow’s update post.
Ksmiami
@dmsilev: even worse… Bain and Co
Bill Arnold
@bbleh:
One could think of it as the second major phase of some cleanup from 2016. First major phase was separating D.J. Trump from the levers of US power. (They’re in much better hands, now, at least at the Federal level.)
Kalakal
@Adam L Silverman: From Georgia? Thanks, I must have missed your post
Cameron
It probably isn’t the right time to be wondering about this, but….there’s almost certainly going to be at least one new COVID variant making the rounds in the next few months. Given the devastation Russia has visited on Ukraine (and unwittingly on itself), how are either of these countries going to be able to deal with a new mass infection? Particularly in Ukraine, where medical facilities have been damaged and destroyed and medical personnel jerked around in who-knows-what ways.
Not sure why I’m thinking about this. There are certainly more immediate concerns for those involved.
Adam L Silverman
@Kalakal: Yep. The Russian quisling running Ossetia for Putin had someone tweet out video of him seeing the troops off and I posted the tweets.
Chetan Murthy
OK, so this is just some yummy shade (a lovely little video).
Cameron
@Adam L Silverman: That doesn’t sound like a very bright move on his part, advertising that the troops have left. Unless he’s actually popular there.
Chetan Murthy
@Cameron: You’re right to be thinking about it. During the Omicron wave, deaths peaked at nearly 700/day; during Delta, around 400/day. And then there’s the many-times-that who needed hospitalization: under current conditions, they’re all going to die pretty quickly.
Sigh. There’s nothing to be done, except fund medevac, I guess, to get those who need hospitalization, out to Eastern Europe. Nothing to be done.
Ksmiami
@bbleh: yes- I’ve determined that the Right wing end times Fox Zombies are petty, small and stupid people that don’t deserve my energy hating them; that said, I’ll be happy to drone blast them into oblivion if they start attacking us.
glc
@terry chay: Indeed.
Kalakal
@Adam L Silverman: Hmm. That could get interesting as Putin continues to degrade his army in Ukraine. He was having to use troops to keep the lid on in Khazkhstan in January. Is there any information about Transnistra? The Moldovan’s would dearly like it back
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: On a different question: what do you think of the theory that a Ukrainian victory here without NATO being physically in-country will pay dividends for Ukraine going forward? Both in terms of Ukraine deciding the terms of the end of the conflict without NATO having as much influence, and in terms of Ukraine being able to go forward as a not-bit-player? I mean, they’re the 2nd largest country in Europe, and will have just sent Russia packing. Rebuilding will take some time, but would Ukraine carry a stronger voice?
I’m not suggesting that it will be worth the potential cost in lives of having NATO intervening more directly, but 10/20/30 years out would Ukraine benefit in terms of independence/self determination, etc.
Martin
@Kalakal: And not great that Belarusian railway workers feel empowered to organize and sabotage their rail system. Russia is now running exercises north of Japan to support their claim there.
How stretched can Russia get before they break?
terry chay
@Soprano2: If used on civilian populations it is believed to be. It has other uses (illumination/smoke) which is why the gray area and also why the U.S. military was equipped with it when (it is believed) it was used in Falluja in 2004.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: The question will not be should Ukraine join NATO, but should NATO join Ukraine.
terry chay
@VeniceRiley: It was a Kamil G. twitter thread a few weeks ago IIRC.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: I look forward to your posts every night and appreciate the expertise.
terry chay
@Adam L Silverman: I was referring to the linking of Andrew Weiss thread yesterday, not you today when I was referring to “Russian political analyst” and “freshman microeconomics at an Ivy League.” I was unaware you were a political analyst, or that you have an Ivy League education, and wouldn’t presume.
Kalakal
@Martin: Serious unrest, outright rebellion in Kazakhstan would be an utter disaster and humiliation for Putin. He’d be the man who destroyed the Russian space program
Adam L Silverman
@terry chay: Now you’re going to be disingenuous?
Carlo Graziani
Another interesting way of reading Rudskoy’s briefing is to view his audience not as “propaganda for a Russian audience” (Russian TV hardly needs this kind of staged performance from a senior officer on the general staff for that purpose) but rather as Putin himself. It could be emollient bullshit intended to appease Putins inability to accept the catastrophic state of affairs in Ukraine, so as to give the Army cover to move to protect itself from getting itself carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey by the Ukrainians.
Martin
@Kalakal: Not sure Russia needs any help from Kazakhstan on that one. But I doubt that would be a disruption. Both the US and ESA would come to Russia’s help on that. Without Baikonur, Russia can’t reach the ISS since they don’t have manned launch facilities at Vostochny (there might have been some corruption problems).
I mean, their commercial business is now dead anyway, so that can’t get any worse.
Amir Khalid
@Martin:
Oh crap. RIP Taylor Hawkins. He was hilarious in some of the Foos’ best videos.
Sebastian
After the craziest week in my life, I return to BJ and see Adam’s post and Zelinskyy’s speech, and all is right in the world.
Going to catch up on reading everything. Thank you all for all you do.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, a reminder that our eyes and brains are not cameras.
(via darth)
Cheers,
Scott.
terry chay
@Adam L Silverman: I think it’s late for you and because of that you misread what I wrote and assumed it was all directed toward you.
I was directing it toward others who are only evaluating sanctions in the manner as you say it won’t achieve (the use of soft power to somehow stop the war once the guns have gone off). If it isn’t obvious, when Kameel is saying that the sanctions regime won’t end if Putin magically leaves Ukraine (which Putin obviously won’t), he is agreeing with you that it can’t and won’t achieve that. He claims repeatedly, despite the straw man other commentators have done, that the purpose of the sanctions is not regime change (well he implies that it is regime change but on the order of decades or when Putin kicks the bucket, not anything in the time scale that will make any difference in the war though).
When I say that there are those just as smart of us who are experts in their field who have been stewing over the mistakes of the last 8-20 years wrt to Russia, I am including you among them. I assume your input/teachings/regrets have gone into influence the current sanctions regime and what it intends to accomplish (something on the scale of likely decades and positioning of what the post-reinvasion world will look like). For instance, there was a video interview of Peter Zeihan that someone linked above where he points out that these sanctions send an stronger message to China wrt their ambitions with Taiwan then they do to Russia. I assume that that must be partly the intent of them even if they are prima fascae going to be ineffective at getting Putin to change the genocide he is doing now in Ukraine.
I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear. It felt you were speaking to many who think of sanctions as having some military outcome on the order of days or months (and that not being possible). You have mentioned this repeatedly in your posts. I feel this invites the question of, “Well then, what is the point of the sanctions?” and I was trying to answer that question with the links provided above. If you feel that this is wrong or in error, it’d be great if you address that here or in future posts as I would like to hear your viewpoint. (Preferably without shitting on me personally — it is poor form to punch down.)
I’m sorry you took it personally. If it was personally directed to you, I would do so. I’m not a sub tweeter. In fact before this, the only times I’ve directed a comment to you personally is when I said the following: I didn’t think you should have amplified the Andrew Weiss thread yesterday and I feel you are presenting a false set of conclusions about what and why Macron is doing something so obviously fruitless. (I feel he is not stupid, he is posturing because he is in the middle of an election.)
I get it though, people are dying needlessly. It is very clear that any positive outcome for Putin involves the genocide of Ukraine as a country, an identity and a culture. It is those passions that caused someone to advocate committing war crimes (perhaps partly in jest) and a rule about a ban being placed when that happens in the future. It really sucks that there aren’t better options. And sometimes in the heat of them we say things we normally wouldn’t.
MisterForkbeard
@Another Scott: Clearly, you’ve made the assumption that none of us are bots (or RoboCop). I’m just not sure sometimes.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Focus on the grey/gray.
Martin
@Another Scott: The best part of it is that even after it’s proven to you that they are circles, you still can’t see them as circles. It’s a lesson that is basically impossible to learn.
And yet we keep telling ourselves that if we only try harder, we can convince people of things they are very clear they have no interest in learning.
Kalakal
@Martin: I wasn’t just thinking of the loss of launch capability, losing Baikonur would be disastrous for Russian pride. Putin’s attempts to laud Russia as a a world leading power both externally and internally would take a massive body blow. Baikonur is the symbol above all of Russian technology and super power status.
Another Scott
@MisterForkbeard: ?
Vision is fascinating, and it’s neat to see how the circuits that are designed to detect edges and boundaries fight with the circuits that detect sharp changes in contrast…
Cheers,
Scott.
Martin
@Kalakal: Oh, I think that Russia pride is going to take quite a few hits from quite a few different directions in the near future.
terry chay
@Kalakal: Yes, he mentioned this last week in fact. I don’t know exactly what is new in the report. Maybe they’re now seeing logistics moving the units specifically to Eastern Ukraine?
VeniceRiley
@Adam L Silverman: thank you and see Lyrebird comment above.
I would love to know if it is legit, or if it is bullshit, who is slinging it.
West of the Rockies
@Mallard Filmore:
Very interesting link. Thank you. But Zeihan seems wildly sure that Russia will defeat Ukraine. I’m just a guy on the internet, but I think such a victory is farrrr from certain.
Chetan Murthy
@Martin: Martin, I figured I’d wait in hopes that someone better-informed than me would comment on your question. I have read (don’t remember where, could have been here) that many well-informed analysts think it’s actually important for UA’s long-term stability (and RU’s long-term ability to not sink into a Dolchstosslegende) that UA beats RU without NATO involvement. If NATO enters the war, RU can claim it was really NATO, and it was an unfair fight. But if UA, little scrappy UA does it, RU will have to accept that they got beat fair and square.
It’s what I’ve read, and I don’t have the qualifications to judge whether it’s true or not. But I tend to accept it, since it seems to be coming from well-qualified people. FWIW.
terry chay
@Adam L Silverman: No, I’m not. I (hope) I’m very clear. I use the term “you” specifically when referring to you in the two times (now four) I’ve directed comments at you. I think I’ve commented about 14 or so times on the months worth of these threads and I believe I have used “you” only those two times. (I would link you specifically like now, but those two, unlike this, are responses to your original post.)
Mallard Filmore
@West of the Rockies: Right. I look at YouTube videos more as background information, for Russia, for China, etc. Some posters have more expertise in their field than others.
Martin
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, I think that’s clear regarding how Russia processes this event since Putin relies on the propaganda. I’m wondering how Ukraine processes it internally. They aren’t reliant on propaganda, so the presence or lack thereof of NATO probably isn’t as important, but an ‘independent’ win here may change how Ukraine carries itself and how Ukraine’s population approach dealing with NATO and the EU. I’m wondering if a bit down the road this doesn’t give rise to a new major European player.
Spc
@terry chay: agree, this was a poor take from Adam. Also Macron is keeping a line open. Since the worst of Putin’s vitrol is reserved for the “Atlanticists,” it is not a bad idea to have a contact outside the Anglosphere keep talking even if it gets nowhere for now.
Sebastian
Sebastian
@Gin & Tonic:
The ICRC’s time of cleansing has come.
Sebastian
@VeniceRiley:
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Chetan Murthy: I’m very late coming back to this thread, so it may already be dead, but I know what you mean about less anxiety. I particularly wanted the 2nd booster since I will be going to the UK next month for a couple of weeks, and the US requires a negative COVID test to get back into the country, so I don’t want to catch even a mild cased of COVID.
Geminid
@terry chay: I think that Macron knows that Putin and Russia are not willing to settle the war at this time. So did the Turkish Foreign Minister when he mediated a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian FMs at Atalya, Turkey earlier this month. As long as Putin thinks he can acheive and consolidate military gains he will not agree to a ceasefire. And I expect the Ukrainians won’t want a ceasefire until they have carried out a counteroffensive to roll back Russian gains. But a realist would want to keep lines of communication open for the day when both sides are ready for a ceasefire and that is what Macron, Turkey, and others are doing.
Geminid
An interesting article in the Times of Israel describes an effort by Israeli Defense Force veterans training Ukraine civilians for combat:
Some of the trainers spoke to the Yedioth Ahranoth reporter about their work:
debbie
@terry chay:
Honestly, you wouldn’t have gotten that reaction if you had been as clear as you presume you were.
debbie
@Geminid:
So, a couple good eggs then. ??♀️
Geminid
@debbie: I think that a number of IDF veterans have traveled to Ukraine to fight. Some of them are from among the many first and second generation Ukrainian immigrants in Israel.
debbie
@Geminid:
And good for them, seriously. It’s their government I have issues with.
Robert Sneddon
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Edinburgh (where I live) and the UK generally isn’t big on flags anywhere. We do have a number of Ukranian flags being displayed in windows hereabouts, that’s about it.
The Russian consulate a few hundred metres from where I live has the Russian flag hanging from a flagpole outside the front door. There were a couple of bored-looking police standing around outside when I went past it yesterday.
pluky
@Adam L Silverman: Breathe Adam! We know who you are, and what you’ve done. Don’t let one pissy troll disturb you. But, on the other hand, I can see the cathartic benefit of a righteous rant.
Blessed be!
Geminid
@debbie: Yes, the Israeli government has denied the Ukrainian government’s many requests for military aid. They did stand up it’s “Shining Star”* field hospital at an elementary school near Lviv this week. The hospital has 150 beds across it’s emergency, pediatric, and obstetric and gynecology wards.
Ukrainian officials have been playing “good cop, bad cop” with the Israelis, alternating bitter reproofs for their lack of support with occasional pats on the back for their attempts at mediation. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba will sometimes refuse to take Israeli FM Lapid’s phone calls, but on the occasion of the hospital’s opening Kuleba tagged Lapid with a Tweet: “Grateful to the State of Israel for setting up the Shining Star hospital in the Lviv region.”
*The Israelis named the hospital “Kohav(?) Meir, or Shining Star, in honor of the late Prime Minister Golda Meir. She was born in Kyiv and lived there until her father emigrated to the U.S. and sent money home so her family could follow him to Milwaukee.
debbie
@Geminid:
And Golda would have been more than pissed off to see Israel’s hands-off approach. Some things are more important than geopolitics. Israel seems to have forgotten that and, more sadly, chosen to ignore their past collective experience.
Geminid
@debbie: Golda Meir always put the security of her country first, so she might have agreed with this government. Israel’ cautious policy on this war is based on their own Russian problem: the presence since 2015 of a Russian air base in northwestern Syria, with advanced SAM-500 batteries that can dominate airspace in an area including northern Israel.
The U.S., Turkey and Israel all are careful to communicate with Russia through special “deconfliction” channels when operating over Syria. Israel does not want to make an enemy of Russia because as a “frenemy” they can bomb Iranian shipments of rockets to their ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Israeli official who was quoted about their government turning a blind eye to the training operation also spoke about the Russian role in Syria:
Unlike regional rivals, Russia is a country that can hurt Israel worse than Israel can hurt it. That calculus may be changing, though.
debbie
@Geminid:
Agree to disagree.
Geminid
@debbie: I’m not saying that Israel is right to pursue this policy, just explaining why they pursue it
Geminid
@Geminid: Rightly or wrongly, Israel considers the rockets under Hezbollah control in Lebanon to be a real threat. Their numbers are conservatively estimated to be more than 100,000. The Israelis want to prevent Iran from shipping bigger and better missiles to Lebanon, and Ms. Meir probably would have wanted to prevent that also.
Michael Cain
@terry chay:
Hasn’t the new German chancellor said something similar? But including that a European military should use weapons systems designed and manufactured in Europe, not the US?
zhena gogolia
@terry chay: I appreciate the thoughtfulness of this comment.
zhena gogolia
@pluky: It’s not a troll.
The Pale Scot
@West of the Rockies:
Nope, Dbl Nope. The Uk population are evenly split even now. Not having the UK whining and bitching, not having them hamstring financial regulations, is sweet. The EU will do fine without the UK. If Londongrad unravels, the UK will be Spain with a few leaky boomers
debbie
@Geminid:
I hear your position, but I’m saying sometimes one’s self-interests need to take a back seat to something more pressing and much bigger.
brantl
@Martin: Rabid-beaver John Bolton championed us withdrawing from the ICC before Iraq, so we couldn’t be charged (effectively) with war crimes.
brantl
@Adam L Silverman: Lighten up, bud, he obviously meant no offense, but now your back is up, and you need to lay it back down.
Villago Delenda Est
@debbie:
Same here. Likud started as a terrorist cell. They haven’t evolved much beyond that over the past 70 years.
Geminid
@Villago Delenda Est: Well, I was speaking to the position of the current Israeli government (which does not include Likud), not neccesarily my own.
J R in WV
@terry chay:
“Ivy League” education… like Senator Rafael Eduardo Cruz of TX? Like Senator John Kennedy of LA?
Education happens depending upon the work one puts into it, not because of where the study takes place. Ivy League schools turn out as many idiots as any land-grant college anywhere.
You should be ashamed to reveal you actually believe that Ivy League students are better off than students at any other college or university.
Ryan
@Villago Delenda Est: What, lose 15k and stall outside of Kyiv? Cunning plan!