(HIMARS by Boris Groh)
Early this morning reports began coming in that Ukraine had fully gone on the attack in Kherson and the long awaited counteroffensive was finally underway. The Ukrainian government has, of course, been somewhat tightlipped about what it is doing for obvious operational security (OPSEC) reasons. So we know something is going on, we know roughly where it is going on, but we don’t know exactly what the it that is going on is.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Ukrainians!
Today we honored the memory of our warriors who gave their lives for our state, for our independence.
This day of remembrance is set for the end of summer, August 29, to remind everyone about the tragic events of 2014, about Ilovaisk, about the fact that this war, which began with Russia’s occupation of our Crimea, with an attempt to seize Donbas, must end precisely there – in the liberated Crimea, in the liberated cities of Donbas, with our troops reaching the state border of Ukraine.
We have always kept this goal in mind. We do not forget about it.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, our intelligence, our defense forces are doing their job. I am sure that you all understand what is happening, what we are fighting for and what we are striving for. And our warriors do not need any announcements or information waves in the back.
Ukraine is returning its own. And it will return the Kharkiv region, Luhansk region, Donetsk region, Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson region, Crimea, definitely our entire water area of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov – from Zmiinyi Island to the Kerch Strait. This will happen. This is ours. And just as our society understands it, I want the occupiers to understand it, too. There will be no place for them on Ukrainian land.
Anyone want to know what our plans are? You won’t hear specifics from any truly responsible person. Because this is war. And this is what it is during the war.
But the occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed. The invaders know it well.
If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee. Go home. If you are afraid to return to your home in Russia – well, let such occupiers surrender, and we will guarantee them compliance with all norms of the Geneva Conventions.
If they do not listen to me, they will deal with our defenders, who will not stop until they liberate everything that belongs to Ukraine.
And it is not something special. It’s not something that supposedly started. We’ve been talking about it for 187 days.
Today, I held meetings with the military, with representatives of the military-industrial sector, and with government officials. Important meetings, important topics, it is wrong to reveal them. But everyone can see the result over time. When our defenders destroy the logistics, bases, and headquarters of the enemy. We will continue this.
I’ve made three appeals to foreign partners today.
The first is Norway. I took part in the work of the energy forum, and I would like to thank the Prime Minister of Norway, Mr. Støre, for the new support package for Ukraine – about 200 million dollars as part of the energy preparation for winter.
The second is France. A powerful association of entrepreneurs – hundreds of thousands of businessmen, millions of owners, managers and employees. I am grateful to them for their support and understanding of what we are fighting for in Ukraine, understanding that this struggle is shared by all Europeans.
The third appeal is to the participants of the security forum in Slovenia, in particular, to our friends – the leaders of the countries of Central Europe and the Balkans.
In the evening, I signed a decree awarding our warriors. 141 combatants were awarded state awards, ten of them posthumously.
It is very important – today I had the honor to present the Gold Star Orders to the relatives, families of Heroes perished while performing combat missions.
Eternal memory to all our heroes! Eternal glory to all those who fight for freedom for our entire land!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the Ukrainian MOD’s operational update for today:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 06.00, on August 29, 2022
Glory to Ukraine! The one hundred eighty-seventh (186) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
There are no major changes on the Volyn, Polissya, and Siversky directions. On the last day, the enemy shelled civilian infrastructure with barrel artillery in the areas of the settlements of Bilopilla, Hai, Katerynivka, Myropilla, and Vodolaga of the Sumy oblast. Conducted aerial reconnaissance with unmanned aerial vehicles.
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy shelled territories near Peremoha, Svitlychne, Husarivka, Borshchova, Zalyman, Slatyne, Nove, Ivanivka, Ruska Lozova, and Sosnivka from tanks, combat vehicles, and rocket artillery. Made an air strike near Nove. Continues intensive aerial reconnaissance of the UAV.
In the Slovyansk direction, shelling was recorded from tanks, barrel artillery, and MLRS near Kurulka, Brazhkivka, Bohorodychne, Krasnopilla, and Adamivka. The enemy used reconnaissance UAVs. It tried to carry out a pointless reconnaissance by combat in the area of the village of Dolyna, suffered losses and withdrew. In order to improve the tactical position, the enemy carried out assaults near Bohorodychne, without success.
In the Kramatorsk direction, shelling from existing artillery systems was recorded near Hryhorivka, Siversk and Ivano-Daryivka. The occupiers also used aviation to strike in the Hryhorivka area.
In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy shelled military and civilian infrastructure near Bakhmut, Shumy, Yakovlivka, Zaytseve, and Kodema. It carried out airstrikes in the areas of Yakovlivka and Kodema. Continued aerial reconnaissance of the UAV in the specified direction. The enemy’s attempts to conduct offensive battles near Kodema and Zaitsevo were stopped by Ukrainian defenders.
In the Avdiivka direction, the areas of Avdiivka, Vodyane, Vesele, Maryinka, Oleksandropil and Tonenke were affected by the fire. In order to improve the tactical position, the enemy conducted offensive battles in the area of Pervomaiske, without success.
In the direction of Novopavlivka, the positions of our troops were shelled from tanks, barrel artillery and MLRS near Pavlivka, Volodymyrivka, Konstyantynivka and Novoukrainka. The enemy used aircraft to strike in the area of Volodymyrivka.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, the occupiers shelled positions from barrel, rocket artillery, and tanks in the areas of the settlements of Dorozhnianka, Shevchenko, Poltavka, Bilohirya, and Novopil. Airstrikes were carried out near Novopole and Novosilka.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy is concentrating its main efforts on preventing the advance of our troops. Takes measures to replenish losses.
The available artillery systems and tanks shelled the infrastructure in the areas of Oleksandrivka, Prybuzke, Novohryhorivka, Pervomaiske, Kvitneve, Kobzartsi, Yakovlivka, Potemkine, Trudolyubivka, Dobryanka, Tavriyske, Shevchenkove, Lyubomyrivka, Bereznehuvate. It used aviation near Novohryhorivka and Andriivka to carry out the strikes. Reconnaissance UAVs of the occupiers were active.
In the waters of the Black and Azov seas, the enemy’s naval group focuses its main efforts on conducting reconnaissance and blocking civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.
Ukrainian soldiers are firmly on the defensive and are ready for any changes in the operational situation. The destruction of enemy command posts of various levels and ammunition depots continues.
We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together we will win!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is today’s assessment from the British MOD:
They did not publish an updated map for today.
In order from oldest to most recent, here are former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s last three assessments with updated and annotated maps regarding the situation in Kherson (the first tweet has a typo in the date, that should be 29 AUG, not 19 AUG):
KHERSON /0130 UTC 19 AUG/ Partisans & SOF continue to undertake personnel interdiction missions against collaborators and informers. Aleksei Kovalev, deputy head of agriculture for the RU occupation government, was shot to death in Kherson on 28 AUG. pic.twitter.com/1np1VsWxL5
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2022
//FLASH TRAFFIC// KHERSON / 1500 UTC 29 AUG/ Sources indicate that Ukrainian forces have opened a broad based offensive against Kherson. pic.twitter.com/0YgOJMaLiS
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2022
KHERSON /2230 UTC 29 AUG / UKR troops have begun a coordinated offensive in Kherson Oblast. Some reports credit UKR forces with a crossing of the Inhulets River. Artillery strikes target RU ammo depots in Kherson andNova Kakhovka. Details are evolving as combat continues. pic.twitter.com/RdpeEthI4h
— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) August 29, 2022
Ukraine’s big counteroffensive in the south seems to be underway. “Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region,” said South Command spox Nataliya Humenyuk. Follows weeks of missile attacks on Russian military depots, command centers. https://t.co/iXvdPGFVXw
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 29, 2022
Here’s several pieces of analysis from The Kyiv Independent‘s defense reporter Illia Ponomarenko:
Let’s be careful about the reported Ukrainian breakthrough in Kherson Oblast.
Fighting has indeed been hard and Ukrainian artillery worked all night long.
Let’s see what comes next before we start expecting something really HUGE. pic.twitter.com/HtPUek8pLL— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2022
So – the Ukrainian military has launched multiple attacks on Russian positions in the Kherson region.
We’ll see how huge the situation is.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2022
My theory on what’s happening: the Ukrainian military has found a weak spot in Russian defenses in Kherson Oblast (possibly on the southern bank of the Inhulets River) and decided to deliver a strike.
I think it’s at the tactical level, but we’ll see.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2022
Russian milbloggers also confirm Ukrainian tactical progress in Kherson Oblast. Look like Ukrainian forces have probably had a local rush through Russian defenses on the Inhulets River bank and are trying to consolidate their success.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2022
From “Kyiv will fall within 72 hours” to “Russian defenses in Kherson Oblast have been broken.”
Goodnight from Ukraine.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 29, 2022
Here’s The Kyiv Post‘s reporting:
Having repeatedly announced plans for a counterattack on Kherson, it seems that today the Ukrainian army has begun implementing orders to liberate the South of Ukraine from Russian occupiers.
According to an operational group of Ukrainian troops, “Kakhovka,” on August 29, the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the occupying force’s first line of defense near Kherson, and the 109th DPR regiment withdrew from its positions. Russian paratroopers, who were the DPR regiment’s support, also fled the battlefield.
“Ukraine has a brilliant chance to regain the territories, with the help of HIMARS. Almost all the large bridges in Kherson have already been destroyed – the Russian army have been cut off from the supply of weapons and personnel from Crimea,” the message stated.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched offensive actions in many directions in the south of Ukraine, the head of the joint press center of the Security and Defense Forces “South”, Nataliya Humenyuk, announced on Ukrainian T.V. news.
Explosions can be heard throughout Kherson region. Massive attacks on Russian bases in Beryslav and Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Region, have been recorded. There are also reports of strikes on Russian infantry.
More at the link!
Girkin: [Ukrainian] Missile strikes at the ferry and bridge crossing in Kherson continue (i.e. every opportunity for Russians to retreat is under fire.)
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) August 29, 2022
Now we watch and wait to see what news dawn over Kherson will bring!
Zaporizhzhia:
In addition, the occupiers are forcing Ukrainians to cover up the traces of the crimes of the Russian army fighters. Thus, the personnel of the power plant are forced to cover up bullet holes from Russian shelling on the building.
Full interview: https://t.co/GymLX5kiz4
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 29, 2022
Oy vey!
Russian media say 65-year-old Elena Belova, who set fire to a Russian military official's car in Moscow, was kidnapped by Ukrainian special forces, hypnotized and taught by them how to burn cars.
An absurd fairy tale to mask public opposition to the Kremlin's war on Ukraine. https://t.co/fRG5lc0mkr
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) August 28, 2022
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
I just wanted to show you part of Chernihiv pyrotechnics. My bros💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/fr2fNJywz6
— Patron (@PatronDsns) August 29, 2022
And the video that the still above was taken from courtesy of Patron’s official TikTok! And me…
@patron__dsns Коли я з ними – мені нічого не страшно! #патрондснс #славаукраїні #песпатрон
The caption translates as:
When I’m with them, I’m not afraid of anything! #PatronDSNA #SlavaUkraini #DogPatron
Open thread!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
Do russians even realize how dumb they sound? Hypnotized. Yeah, okay. Cool story, broski.
When I started seeing stuff about the Kherson counteroffensive, I felt like a bit of a dork but I literally yelled at my screen YES GO GET ‘EM! But I do appreciate Zelenskyy’s message of “we’re not going to tell every dodo out there exactly what we’re planning because we’re not a bunch of dummies like the occupiers.”
Patron is getting his own set of stamps! I wants them.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Poptartacus
Hopefully the orcs fold like a cheap suit
Salva Ukraine
Omnes Omnibus
The tube artillery boys will be getting back into the fray after the rocket boys have been getting all the glory.
Ken
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: The hypnosis story is less plausible than the “our navy is incompetent” excuse for the sinking of the Moskva, while simultaneously painting the Ukrainians as superior covert operatives.
zhena gogolia
I like that last Ponomarenko tweet
Major Major Major Major
OT, but what’s your take on what’s going on in Iraq?
MobiusKlein
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
I think throwing out BS is intentional, just from a ‘lol, nothing is real’ perspective. When all claims are false, then just fall back to a shrug and keep your head down.
la caterina
As always, thanks for the useful info, Adam! I hope Ukraine’s counteroffensive will succeed.
dmsilev
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛: For the sake of argument, let’s take that story at face value. What defenses does Russia have against these mysterious Ukrainian mesmerists? Wouldn’t any ordinary Russian citizen be at risk of having their mind taken over and turned into an automaton focused only on the greater glory of Ukraine?
I guess what I’m saying is that the Russian propagandists may not have fully considered the implications of their line of BS.
Grey Michael
I was waiting for a summer offensive, and am so glad it’s here. Whilst trying not to get too excited, also I hope this is just the beginning.Kherson is in play now, perhaps all of Crimea.
The US and the west cannot falter now in our support for Ukraine.
If Ukraine can make it through the fall and winter, then a late spring/early summer offensive could take back even more land.
oldster
@Major Major Major Major:
Bad things. A lot of chaos and gunfire, in the Green Zone. And not just small arms; I saw video of a technical with a heavy firing from it, and also saw a tweet reporting mortar shells.
Our footprint has gone down there from 16k US personnel working in the Green Zone to now only a few hundred at the Embassy. But I still worry about them. I hope they’ll stay safe, and that sanity will be restored soon.
And in Kherson: slava Ukraini. May there plans come to fruition.
brendancalling
@Poptartacus: I hope the Ukrainians kill every single one that doesn’t surrender. But boy, it would be awesome to see a whole bunch of those poor motherfuckers who got impressed into cannon fodder surrender unconditionally.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@MobiusKlein: No wonder Trump loves them so much, and vice versa.
Jay
Slava sent me a text, early this morning, Ukraine time, so late last night my time,
”He’s busy”.
Gin & Tonic
Just a note for context. “Eternal memory” or “Вічна пам‘ять” is the standard thing to say in Ukrainian when you learn someone has died. Not to minimize President Zelensky’s words, but to point out that a phrase which may sound a little stilted in English is completely normal in Ukrainian.
japa21
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks. I very much appreciate these little tips you provide.
nonrev321
Just a note: No geo-locations of Ukraine actions, no info of troop movements, sightings, events, no weapons reports, etc. Good dialog is nice but remember its a war.
Another Scott
AlJazeera’s map seems to show stuff happening around Kharkiv in the NW part of the occupied areas of Ukraine as well (the blue areas). It would be smart of Ukraine to attack in multiple regions at once so that VVPs people can’t simply try to rush forces to the south.
(from AlJazeera)
Thanks Adam.
Cheers,
Scott.
lowtechcyclist
Things must be going quite well in the Kherson offensive so far. Because this is some serious shit:
Zelenskyy’s not one to get out over his skis, and I can’t believe he’d be saying stuff like this if there was any doubt of the success of this operation. And it can’t be a dinky little operation either, but one that would cause Russian soldiers to flee for their lives in large numbers.
It was noted a week or two ago that the Russian military leadership that had been located in Kherson, had withdrawn across the Dnieper. Can’t imagine that puts fire in the belly of the raw Russian recruits, quite the opposite. And now they can’t follow their leaders across the river, unless they’re very good swimmers.
kalakal
@brendancalling: A mass surrender will do very nicely. The sight of 1,000s of POWs will do wonders for Ukranian morale ( and Russian too, but not in the same way )
Gin & Tonic
@lowtechcyclist: Since we have largely succeeded in having everyone write “Kyiv,” please note that the big river is the “Dnipro.”
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@lowtechcyclist: The “if you are afraid to go home” bit – damn, he really knows how to land a blow.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you for these notes. It’s unsettling to realize how much of the way the West speaks/writes names like this is based on russian, without even knowing it. I’d always assumed “Kyiv/Kiev” was just one of those “either way is fine” things.
kalakal
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
Very good point. I have Polish inlaws and they detest the way that for so long the West used German place names for Polish cities etc
Rivers often being multinational often have different names, the Rhine has at least 10, depending on where you are.
In this case the river is in Ukraine and G&T is right, we should use the Ukrainian name and most certainly not the Russian one.
Got to admit my own ignorance in this, unsettling is the word
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: I’m waiting to see how long the Sadr “I’m withdrawing from politics” thing lasts. He’s done variants of this before.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks! Always good to get more cultural info to help understand what Z is saying.
Medicine Man
@Gin & Tonic: Noted. Going to take some time relearning these things but it is a good task.
Carlo Graziani
I think Ponomarenko is right to tell people to chill out. Reason knows, I’ve been wishing on a big counteroffensive too, but lately I’ve also had some reasons to wonder about how much of what we’re seeing makes no sense.
Everyone in the world appears to know the Russian order of battle, every BTG, every artillery tube, every Chechen or Dagestani. Does anyone here or anywhere else know exactly what troop formations the Ukrainian army has assembled for its counteroffensive? Or, just what it has, in any theatre? Roughly, I mean. Here are all these milbloggers, confidently talking about breakthroughs, and not one of them can make any kind of assertion about the kind of mass that the UA has brought to bear on the front.
It’s fucking absurd. This is not opsec, at least not the opsec for a real operation. An “offensive” is different from an “attack”. It’s a large coordinated action by many, minimally battalion-scale units (at least at this theatre scale). Has the UA actally assembled such a large force in the area? If so, why can’t we name the units? This “offensive” was announced by the government at the end of June. It was hardly a secret. And now, finally, The Long-Promised Kherson Offensive Is Duly Unfolding. Except, we still can’t name the units in play? What other war has had a set-piece “offensive” in which that was true?
It looks like a shell game to me. Mindfuckery. Something is not right. I don’t know what’s going on, or why the right hand is waving so distractingly. But I smell the very distinctive odor of bullshit.
Mind you, I’m all for bullshitting the Russians. I just can’t see the end gane.
phdesmond
Maddow is about to report
that the government of Ukraine
is distributing iodine pills
to thirty thousand neighbors
of the endangered nuclear plant.
Tony G
I was listening to NPR this afternoon (painful as that is) and two of their “crack” talking heads were wondering why the Ukrainian government hadn’t been providing operational details about the offensive. Are these people really that stupid? Or are they just paid to act stupid? Ugh.
Ken
@Gin & Tonic: I was going to try to learn something tonight, but found that romanization of Ukrainian is more complicated than I’d hoped. Which system do you use?
Grumpy Old Railroader
@Ken: Occam’s Razor
Also Ukraine is using some Art of War principles, especially deception
WaterGirl
@phdesmond: Fact or prediction on your part?
Gin & Tonic
@Ken: I try to use the Ukrainian National system to the extent possible, but sometimes fall back to LC.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: Ukraine is under no obligation to keep you informed of its plans.
phdesmond
@WaterGirl: it was both.
p.s. i contributed a candidate to the rotating tag line.
Grumpy Old Railroader
@Gin & Tonic:
Precisely. My Art of War comment above was in response to Carlo. Not sure how I mixed it up to be directed at Ken. As I skimmed through some Art of War material I was struck by Ukraine’s strategy
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t think I expressed myself clearly then.
This doesn’t have the feel of opsec that covers a real offensive.
This feels like something else.
I could be wrong. That documentedly happens on a regular basis right here in these comments. Nonetheless I would assert that there’s a lot about an offensive three months in preparation that this thing just doesn’t check the boxes on.
WaterGirl
@phdesmond: Just saw it! I don’t know what that means. ?
edit: to clarify, I do not know what the rotating tag nomination that was sent to me means:
I think maybe you had to be there, and I wasn’t on that thread.
Adam L Silverman
@phdesmond: That’s just being proactively prudent.
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: It’s a counter radiation exposure treatment.
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani:
WW2 to name but one. Both sides often went to great lengths to confuse not only the timing and location of an attack/offensive eg operations Bodyguard and Mincemeat but which units were committed in a given offensive. 2nd Alamein was a classic set piece offensive, Montgomery went to great lengths to confuse Rommel not only as to where units were but what units he actually had & which were committed at any time. This allowed him to successfully switch his axis of attack 1/2 way through the 2 week offensive. The Ukranians are rightly giving nothing away and what we do learn from them may well be false
japa21
@WaterGirl:
This was reported earlier. The tablets are suppose to minimize radiation poisoning. People are being told not to use them yet. They are to be used if there is a major radiation spill at the plant.
phdesmond
@WaterGirl:
the left out part of the tag is “go, google the word samizdat”
but you could use either or both of them!
JaySinWA
Here’s a backgrounder on potassium iodide as a radiation treatment. IIRC it has limited utility.
https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/ki.ht
There are other potential treatments that sound more useful to me than KI, for the potential problems with the plant. https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/countermeasures.htm
But KI is probably better known.
Redshift
@Carlo Graziani: Could be. On the other hand, I have no real idea how much is known in most wars except what the attacking side tells their embedded journalists. We know a lot about RU units and positions because the Ukrainian government wants us to know, and because their opsec has been terrible. The reverse isn’t true.
We don’t know a lot about how the numerous recent attacks being enemy lines have been carried out, for example, but there’s little doubt they have been. Time will tell, but it’s not obvious to me that this is anything more than a deliberate information blackout.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: I heard this at dinner Friday night, so I’m not sure why I need Rachel Maddow for it.
Bill Arnold
@WaterGirl:
Iodine prophylaxis saturates the thyroid, preventing the thyroid from absorbing radioactive iodine (“131 I”), often part of the radioactive emissions from a reactor leak. IIRC this was mostly through e.g. drinking of contaminated milk. That isotope has a radioactive decay half life of about 8 days and an effective half life of 5-6 days. The literature says that timing is important, and that one should not load up on iodine until there is an actual leak.
(Any actual experts feel free to correct me – this is the Internet! :-)
phdesmond
@zhena gogolia:
through sheer chance she communicated the news to us.
oh, i submitted a tag for the taglines up above. it was inspired by by the russian language.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: Oh, I knew that. That was cryptic on my part… I was trying to say that I didn’t understand the rotating tag that phdesmond had sent me.
Tony G
@Tony G: If NPR had been on the air in 1944, they’d be complaining that they haven’t been told about the exact date and location of Omaha Beach on D Day.
twas hospice
Those pills flood the thyroid so that radiation can’t be absorbed by it. It wouldn’t help for radioactive dust to lungs or if you drank bad (radioactive) water.
Biz Insider has pics that plant has holes in roof, but it’s in the turbine building, which isn’t a (great) radioactive hazard.
Carlo Graziani
@Grumpy Old Railroader: If the hypothesis that the Russians are being bullshitted is granted, then it is perfectly obvious that an elaborate deception scheme is playing out. To what end I have no clue.
A few months ago I was more sanguine about the odds, because it seemed to me that the Ukrainian Universal military training (UMT) 18-month draft system with graduates entering an active reserve, would give Ukraine a decisivr manpower advantage over the depleted Russian professional contract army. But for reasons I still don’t understand, and look forward to reading a monograph on someday, that advantage never materialized. The mass army that Ukraine needs to assemble at a Clausewitzian schwerpunkt so as to burst through and try conclusions with the Russians seems chimeric now, because as fast as the Ukrainians have ground down the Russian army, they appear, unfortunately to have been ground down themselves.
And if that’s the case, perhaps their best option is shadow puppetry, at least for now, until they can sort out their manpower resources, assuming they can do so faster than the Russians can.
Or maybe this offensive is real. In a day or two we will know. I may have to eat crow (no ketchup, pkease! I prefer braised, in a white wine sauce, with garlic, olive oil, rosemary, anchovies, and some chopped Genoese olives).
But my feeling is that parties in war that resort to major deception do so to compensate for weakness, not to complement strength. I think we may have to accept that this is what is going on here.
Feathers
@Tony G: Time to bring up the classic Saturday Night Live skit from the run up to the first Gulf War: https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/iraq-war-briefing-cold-open/2859825
This skit did have a very bad impact. In reporting after the war, apparently the Pentagon saw this, decided that the press was not held in high esteem and thus they would pay no penalty for evading questions.
Carlo Graziani
@kalakal: While this is true, it is not really relevant in the modern context of remote sensing from space and airborne platforms. You’d have a better chance of concealing a giant ketchup stain on the front of a bridal dress.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
I *do* wonder if this is a ruse to get RU to rush even more reinforcements and materiel into Kherson oblast, where they can be blown up by HIMARS and barrel artillery, taken out by specops and partisans. And blowing up trains, of course. It’s fit UA’s modus operandi so far, which is to *not* actually start an offensive, but to pretend to, in order to draw more and more RU assets into a killing zone.
Fake Irishman
@Adam L Silverman:
right. Iodine pills has been a thing in the past for the residents near American nuclear power plants. After 9-11 I was covering a local appearance of Hilary Clinton near the Ginna Nuclear power plant in New York, and it was the first question she was asked about by media.
Her detailed, well-measured response blew me away.
(for those who are curious the pills flood your thyroid with Iodine to keep out the radioactive isotopes of iodine that are one of the common dangerous short-term fallout products of a nuclear reactor meltdown.)
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: and IIUC, the spelling of the bridge across the Dnipro near Kherson is “Antonivskyi”
Shalimar
@Carlo Graziani: We know about Russian abilities because Ukraine and allies publicize them. We don’t know much about Ukraine’s abilities because no one is making them public, including Ukraine.
I don’t see any advantage that would be gained from announcing an offensive and not following through. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Kherson offensive is a feint and the real goal is relieving pressure around Kharkiv, though.
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani: you did ask “what other war” but fair enough. If you want a more modern context try the Falklands in 1982, both sides had access to air & space bourne surveillance systems. The British MOD gave absolutely nothing away publicly until after it was over and the Argentinians were nearly as close mouthed and I’m not surprised the Ukranians are doing the same.
What does somewhat surprise me, I mentioned this a few weeks ago, is how publicly the Ukranians have been signalling the sector in which they were going to attack for weeks and weeks. As you say with modern sensors it’s very difficult to hide large groups so perhaps it’s an elaborate excercise to a) relieve pressure on the Donbas and/or b) make the Russians commit more and more forces to an area where they are essentially stuck out on a limb with very vulnerable lines of supply.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
I’ve read many commentators saying that UA is manpower-rich, materiel-poor, where RU is the other way around. I’ve seen assessments of barrel artillery and shells for same, that make the same point. I’m sure the better arty we give UA makes up for some of the gap. But still, UA might have the troops, but not the equipment, and they’re not going to thru people into a grinder to die.
Torrey
@Gin & Tonic:
Thank you for this. It really helps to have a bit of a better understanding of tone and context.
Chetan Murthy
@Torrey: @Gin & Tonic: Yes, I also appreciate them. Like learning about the call-and-response of “Slava Ukraini” and “Heroyam Slava”: it’s like learning what “may his/her memory be a blessing” means.
Grumpy Old Railroader
I find it fascinating to look through The Art of War and pull out the ones Ukraine is implementing and those that Russia is ignoring. I had not read it in years and recently went over it again. Here is a brief summary but going through them all is a good exercise:
Chetan Murthy
Apropos of this terrible war, I read recently that AB InBev, the brewers of Leffe beer, plan to brew it in Russia at seven different breweries. Leffe is one of my favorite beers. Ah, well, once I finish the six-pack in my house right now, I guess I’ll be finding other Belgian beers to drink.
Carlo Graziani
The IAEA team heading to Zaporizhzhia is apparently headed by the agency director, Rafael Grossi.
This is BFD. The IAEA is completely in improv mode here. This is not what they are accustomed to doing.
Ordinarily, an IAEA inspection to a nuclear facility would involve a single inspector, whose job would be to verify that various technical recording devices and seals enplaced by the agency maintained integrity, and validated the facility operator’s commitment to treaty obligations not to divert nuclear materials from the facility.
The Zaporizhzhia mission is nothing like that. Apart from being led by a senior civil servant of the United Nations, it is comprised, apparently, of a team of 13 people. I have not seen names or serial ranks, but I assume all team members are fairly senior agency staff members. And their job is definiteky not to check seals and camera footage for evidence of diversion of nuclear material — Russia is already a nuclear weapons state, and Ukraine doesn’t even have control of the facility.
So really, they’re just going to establish A Presence. To be at the plant, and witness. Which is not a particularly safe thing to attempt in this war zone. It’s very exposed. A bit like being a UN Peacekeeper in Bosnia in 1994.
Chetan Murthy
jesus wept
lowtechcyclist
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1564534663430807553
This is the fundamental weakness of the Russian position in Kherson. The leaders have fled, so why should the troops fight to defend the place where they no longer are?
If Sun Tzu has anything to say about this, I’m sure it isn’t flattering.
lowtechcyclist
Chuck Pfarrer thinks this is the real thing. Concluding paragraphs from a longer piece in the Kyiv Post:
Enhanced Voting Techniques
They were talking about the Russian took all the volunteers they just recruited, stuck them in their own group “3rd Army Corpse” and then equipped them with better stuff than even the Russian elite unites like their paratroopers get. People are confused because that makes no sense.
If you are fighting a war, sure, this 3rd Russian Army Coprse makes no sense, but if you are brutal dictatorship and the moral of booth your army and regime loyalist guard in the form of Wanger Group has collapsed and you are worried about a coup, it does. Sort of like how the Nazis with the Army being coountered by the SS and the SS in turn being counterd by the Volksturm.
Gin & Tonic
@lowtechcyclist: Ukrainian Channel 5 headlines a story about Stremousov with “The rats run away first.”
Carlo Graziani
They could be trying to spoof the Russians into just running away, I suppose. Zelenskyy did openly exhort them to do exactly that after all. It would fit with the large-scale performative aspects of the 3-month Kherson build-up. Get RU ground forces to withdraw behind the river without a street-by-street battle, and without massing an army that can’t be massed without fatally weakening the Donbas front.
They’d still be likely to have to deal with spite artillery strikes that could level the city once the RU are out. I hope the new counterbattery capabilities are on-line already.
Geminid
Several media outlets say that so far the Russian army is finding the drones supplied to them by Iran disappointing.
Chetan Murthy
Have people here been watching #NAFO ? I find it *fascinating*, and it really seems to be having some effect. Viz.
This makes me think about and wonder about how this might be applicable to our own home-grown fascist opposition.
JessIsAStar
@lowtechcyclist: let’s hope so.