It was a very long day, though not as long as it was for the Ukrainians. So we’re going to cover the basics and call it an update.
First thing this AM reporting began to filter out that Ukraine had struck deep into Russia targeting airbases that were home base for strategic Russian bombers. Strategic Russian bombers that had been targeting Ukrainian civilian residential, health care, educational, energy generation and transmission, and water treatment, generation, and transmission facilities.
Tu-141 are 1970s technology. If Russian radar and air defenses could not defeat a Tu-141 that flew hundreds of miles from hitting its main airbase for its strategic bombers in a war setting, that doesn't bode well for its ability to stop a mass cruise missile strike.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 5, 2022
A lot of pseudonymous social media accounts immediately started speculating whether these were those recently reported on new Ukrainian drones – the ones that looked like grey sleds with a white raptor, the Ukrainian flag, and some digitized Ukrainian embroidery patterns painted on them – or something even newer. As you can see above it turned out to be something older. And that, as Rob Lee states, is even more interesting because one would think that the Russians would’ve been able to track and stop a Tu-141 with its air defense. Of course the Kremlin wasn’t going to let this embarrassment pass. The NY Times has the details:
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine executed its most brazen attack into Russian territory in the nine-month-old war on Monday, targeting two military bases hundreds of miles inside the country, using unpiloted drones, according to the Russian Defense Ministry and a senior Ukrainian official.
The drones were launched from Ukrainian territory, and at least one of the strikes was made with the help of special forces close to the base who helped guide the drones to the target, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to convey sensitive information.
The strikes signaled a new willingness by Kyiv to take the fight to bases in the heart of Russia, raising the stakes in the war, and demonstrated for the first time Ukraine’s ability to attack at such long distances. Shortly after the attacks on the bases, Russia sent a barrage of missiles streaking toward Ukrainian cities.
The Engels air base and the Ryazan military installation are between 300 and 450 miles from the Ukrainian border, which is beyond the range of any known missile in Ukraine’s arsenal.
Only a few hours after the explosions, Ukrainian officials said that more than a dozen Russian bombers had taken off from the Engels air base.
Russia launched a volley of missiles at Ukraine’s energy grid on Monday, knocking out power in several regions, officials said, the latest in a monthslong campaign of strikes by Moscow targeting civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian air defense systems fired into the sky in multiple areas of the country but not all missiles were intercepted. Four people were killed by the Russian strikes, President Volodymyr Zelensky said, and officials reported damage to energy infrastructure.
Much more at the link!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
A report on the day.
The main result – 70 Russian missiles were launched, most of them were shot down. Kalibr, Kh-101, etc.
I am grateful to all our warriors of the air commands “East”, “South” and “Center”. Well done!
I am also grateful to our partners for the air defense systems we are currently using. Every downed Russian missile is concrete proof that terror can be defeated.
But, unfortunately, we still cannot ensure complete security to our sky – there were several hits.
Unfortunately, there are victims. As of this time, there are four people killed by Russian strikes today. My condolences to families and friends.
Energy workers immediately started restoration. Maximum efforts are in the central regions of Ukraine, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions. In many regions we had to switch to emergency shutdowns to stabilize the system. From Zakarpattia to Kyiv region, from Kirovohrad region to Sumy and Kharkiv regions. As of this evening, the biggest number of shutdowns is in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi and Cherkasy regions. But we will do everything to restore stability.
Russian terror again affects neighboring states. There are interruptions with electricity supply in Moldova again. And this once again proves that Russia’s ability to carry out such massive terrorist attacks is a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to our entire region. At least.
When one terrorist destabilizes everyone’s lives, stopping terror is a joint task.
Tonight I will talk about this in my address to the expert community of the American Institute for the Study of War and to all our friends in the United States.
By the way, with today’s missile attack Russia marked the anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum. The fate of this document gives answers to many current questions about Russia. Simply signing something with these terrorists will not bring peace. They will certainly break any agreements reached with them. Giving up any element of someone else’s security to Russia means new war.
Therefore a principled continuation of the existing policy of conscientious states of the world is necessary: it is only the dismantling of Russian terrorist capacities, liberation of all our territories and holding the murderers to account that will bring peace. I believe we will come to this.
Another result of today is a new declaration of support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic course. This is the third such declaration. Today it was signed with Montenegro. After the Czech Republic and Belgium.
We will complete this path step by step – we will persuade the Euro-Atlantic majority in favor of Ukraine. And not just in words, but in decisions. In decisions to support our accession to the collective security system.
And one more thing
Finally, a special award for extraordinary people appeared in Ukraine – for Ukrainian volunteers. “Gold Heart”. Today, greeting the volunteer community, I named the first 50 teams and individuals who will receive this new award shortly. But this is far from a complete list of those who deserve it.
The state should know how to be grateful and express gratitude. And it will.
Glory to everyone who defends Ukraine!
Gratitude to everyone who helps our state hold out against Russian terror!
Eternal memory to everyone whose life was taken by terrorists!
Glory to Ukraine!
Missile Monday N8. Target – the Ukrainian people's will. 70+ missiles launched, more than 60 shot down by UA air defense.
The aggressor’s mission – failed.
The aggressor's future as a terrorist state – sealed.— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 5, 2022
Ukraine’s armed forces: over 70 Russian missiles fired, including nearly 38 Kh-101 and Kh-555, 22 Kalibrs, 3 Kh-22, 6 Kh-59, and 1 Kh-31P.
Nearly 60 have been intercepted.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 5, 2022
Oh yeah! pic.twitter.com/mN5ek9BXBh
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 5, 2022
If you’re wondering, that’s one of the German Gepards:
One of key benefits of the Gepard is the cost per engagement is astonishingly low; the system fires inexpensive 35mm cannon rounds.
In contrast, some of the anti-aircraft missiles currently in Ukrainian service – (e.g. NASAMS) can cost anything up to a million dollars each.
— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) December 5, 2022
Today is the day the Ukrainian Air Force managed to strike two strategic airfields deep in the Russian rear and then repelled a major missile attack on the nation.
Not a bad Monday, huh?— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 5, 2022
Here is the US readout of Secretary Austin’s call with Minister of Defense Reznikov earlier today:
Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov
Dec. 5, 2022 |
Attributed to Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder:Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov to condemn Russia’s brutal air attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and to reinforce the unwavering U.S. commitment to support Ukraine’s ability to counter Russia’s war of aggression. Secretary Austin reiterated air defense as a top priority for U.S. security assistance efforts, made evident by recent commitments to provide Ukraine additional munitions for U.S.-provided National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) as well as capabilities to counter Unmanned Aerial System.
The leaders pledged to remain in close contact.
Here’s video with analysis of the strike on the Engels air base:
Video geolocated to here (done myself, others independently established same location). 6.2 km away, in line of sight, is north-eastern part of Engels airbase flight line, where, in this imagery, some Tu-95 bombers are parked. pic.twitter.com/VWplevHiHr
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) December 5, 2022
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kherson and Bakhmut:
KHERSON AXIS/1343 UTC 5 DEC/ UKR sources report that RU occupation authorities in the Skadovsky district of southern Kherson have instituted a nightly curfew and restricted travel between cities for UKR civilians. Partisan activity increases around Melitopol. RU Ka-52 shot down. pic.twitter.com/Ooywy5RLJo
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 5, 2022
BAKHMUT/1310 UTC 5 DEC/ UKR Air Defenses down a RU Su-34 strike fighter and capture 1 pilot in the Bakhmut AO. Four RU UAVs downed as Newsweek reports Russia is losing a total of 100 KIA soldiers a day as piecemeal attacks continue against dug in UKR forces. pic.twitter.com/dxKNo36GtX
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 5, 2022
The Financial Times awarded President Zelenskyy their person of the year award. This includes an accompanying article.
Nine months into a brutal struggle for national survival against Russian invaders, Volodymyr Zelenskyy looks tired, with dark circles under his eyes. What he would like to be doing instead of confronting a merciless invader is fishing with his son. “I just want to catch a carp in the Dnipro river,” he says.
For a taste of normal life, the unlikely president may still have a long wait, despite the surprising streak of battlefield successes for Ukraine’s forces. But the folksy message is characteristic of a leader who still depicts himself as an everyman with humble tastes and a deep sense of humanity, qualities that have earned him the admiration of Ukrainians and their supporters abroad.
It is the mirror image of the fictional ordinary-guy-turned-president he played in a satirical hit television series that skyrocketed him to fame. It is also the antithesis of Russian president Vladimir Putin, hidden away in the Kremlin, whose obsession with rebuilding an empire has cost tens, possibly hundreds, of thousands of lives.
Written off by many Ukrainians before the February invasion as something of a joke, an amateur struggling to rise to the challenge of high office, the 44-year-old Zelenskyy has earned a place in history for his extraordinary display of leadership and fortitude.
In an interview with the FT, Zelenskyy recalls the early days of the invasion and says he is not really courageous: “I am more responsible than I am brave . . . I just hate to let people down.”
Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, recalls how three years ago he told a group of western journalists that “our president would be the most famous and strongest leader of his time”. He adds: “I won’t say I told you so, but I was right.”
There is much, much more at the link. And this bon mot that didn’t make it:
🧔🏻 Bonus content: After the interview I reminded Zelensky he remarked on my beard when we first met during his campaign; I suggested he grow one. He said no—but he’s got a war beard now & he’ll only shave “after victory.” But his wife likes his scruff so it might be here to stay. https://t.co/7yev6ZAeg4
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 5, 2022
Render unto God that which belongs to God and unto the enemy that which is of the enemy.
Beware, enemy – you'll get what the witch wants. 🇺🇦 volunteers dressed as witches, sending love to our soldiers and the…opposite…to our enemy.
📷Iryna Rezner,Yulia Ovadchuk, Taras Potapenko pic.twitter.com/UCiiK5tEp1— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 5, 2022
Morning Pikachu Dance. Winter has never been an obstacle to a good mood.
🎥 by Operative #UAarmy pic.twitter.com/B5efM39lcT— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 5, 2022
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
The feeling when your name is legal and can become most popular in North Korea. (« Patron » means bullet in Ukrainian😅) pic.twitter.com/cigvz7L51X
— Patron (@PatronDsns) December 4, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Представляю вам свою першу колекцію для тварин: HERRRO! Створили її разом з @waudog для усіх чотирилапих героїв, бо кожен песик та котик – то справжній herrro❤️ #песпатрон
The caption machine translates as:
Introducing my first collection for animals: HERRRO! We created it together with @waudog for all four-legged heroes, because every dog and cat is a real herrro❤️ #PatrontheDog
Open thread!
CaseyL
The strike on the two Russian airbases pleases me greatly, though I wish they had done more damage. Hopefully, now that Ukraine has confirmed its targeting coordinates, there will be more.
Alison Rose
Dang, Ze’s got a psychic on staff. Not bad!
I was very glad to see the news about the strikes on russian airfields, especially if it makes putin mad or embarrasses him, since he did this fucking garbage: putin Signs Law Banning Expressions of LGBTQ Identity in Public.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
If anyone can find a link to the Herrro/Patron dog stuff that’s in English, please drop it into a reply. Thanks!
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Looking for this?
Gin & Tonic
So there’s been discussion on and off about the cyber-warfare and cyber-defense components of this war, but it hasn’t been an active topic here. Nevertheless, The Economist published a fairly long article about precisely those aspects this week, and if this is something which interests you, it’s a worthwhile read. Here’s a gift link.
Ken
The NYT article reminds me of the adage of twitter’s “Darth Putin”: Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.
Also, the Financial Times award reminds me of a joke circulating last week: Time has whittled their Person of the Year nominees down to two: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose accomplishments include leading his country’s battle against an invasion, and Charles Windsor, who is the oldest of four siblings.
lowtechcyclist
“Minor damage” to a Russian strategic bomber at Ryazan.
Alison Rose
@Ken: LOL. I looked at the list of Time POTY finalists and was like, nah. I mean, they do have a generic “protestors in Iran” entry, which, sure, that’s worthy. But none of the others are anywhere near Zelenskyy’s level and most of them seem to be here because “wow you’re heckin’ good at being evil”: Muskrat, Xi, SCOTUS, Liz Cheney, MacKenzie Scott, DeSatan, Janet Yellen, “gun safety advocates”, and then the Iranians and Ze.
sdhays
@Alison Rose: What’s the point of “Person of the Year” if you can’t even maintain the discipline to pick a single person? Remember when the “Person of the Year” was “You”? I still can’t believe the magazine continued to be published after that.
Bill Arnold
@Alison Rose:
For whatever its worth, “Ze” is an occasionally-used gender-neutral pronoun. (I’ve seen it used where he/she is genuinely not correct/meaningful.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/-ze-or-they-a-guide-to-using-nonbinary-gender-neutral-pronouns
Zelenskyy is a good choice. Also would irritate tankies and anger Russian Imperialists, and annoy some pro-Putin US Republicans.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: As impressive and inspiring as Zelenskiyy is, the “young protestors of Iran” and esp. “young female protestors of Iran” are just as inspiring. In a way they’re even more inspiring, b/c they don’t have an organized government behind them: they literally have only their own fragile bodies to throw into the struggle.
The rest? Pfffft, I agree 100% with you. Pfffffft.
phdesmond
@Chetan Murthy: and pfui.
Another Scott
@lowtechcyclist: Here’s a thread with more pictures, including some satellite pictures.
(via Oryx)
Cheers,
Scott.
Dan B
@Alison Rose: The making LGBTQ+ invisible law is very in character with Putin. He wants anyone and anything that opposes his strong man views to be invisible or eliminated. It’s the motivation of people opposed to marriage equality. They cannot imagine a marriage that is an equal partnership. Every relationship must have a dominant and a subservient. They’re probably horrified by the countries headed by women. It’s the beating heart of authoritarians.
Percysowner
Russia Executes Company Commander After His Men Desert
Alison Rose
@sdhays: LOL yeah.
Alison Rose
@Bill Arnold: I am well aware, as I have many friends and acquaintances who use neo-pronouns. But Zelenskyy has used Ze as a nickname for many years, and I imagine in Ukrainian, the gender-neutral pronouns would be different. I’m pretty sure anyone commenting on these threads would understand what I was saying.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks, but I’d already seen that. What I want is a site that I can order from, not the press release from the company that’s making them. The Ukrainian site selling them only has Ukrainian and Russian.
Bill Arnold
That witch mosaic is a little over the top. Laughing.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: Well, “Ze” (short “e”) is just the way you pronounce the stand-alone letter “Z.” Like how in American English it’s pronounced “zee” and in Canadian and British English it’s “zed,” in Ukrainian it’s “ze” – not rhyming with “he,” as I’m guessing the neutral AmerEnglish pronoun would.
Oh, and there have always been gender-neutral pronouns in Ukrainian, since nouns have one of three genders (masculine, feminine, neuter.) But it comes out sounding more like he/she/it, and I suspect the “it” is disrespectful. And I have yet to see much call for a non-binary but not-neuter pronoun in conversational Ukrainian.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Sorry, misunderstood.
Bill Arnold
@Alison Rose:
OK. Did not know that.
Also, another conflation is that the Z used by Russian Zazis is pronounced “Zee” in American English.
Tony G
@sdhays: Back in the day the only time that I read “Time” or “Newsweek” was when I was In a doctor’s office waiting room. Now, even the waiting rooms don’t have them (a TV blaring infotainment instead).
Mike in NC
@sdhays: That magazine should have folded 50 years ago.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: No worries. I appreciate the effort.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I’ve been unable to find a site selling in English, and I’m not thinking they’re set up for shipment out of country.
Martin
@sdhays: Person of the Year is because they weren’t clever enough to think of college rankings, which is an infinitely better grift.
Carlo Graziani
Hi Adam. Good update. A possible correction:
Presumably you didn’t mean to type “…in Svatove…” there?
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I’m not sure what we’re disagreeing on here? I didn’t mention pronunciation–I just know that in his campaign and elsewhere, he’s used “Зе” in videos and hashtags and such, and in the name of his secondary YouTube channel. I’m not relating it to our pronouns–Bill seemed to think I was unaware that some people in the US use ze (along with zir) as a gender-neutral pronoun, and I guess thought people might be confused by me using Ze to refer to Zelenskyy. I’ve seen many many people use Ze in place of Зе here, since to us that looks like three-e. I’m not sure where this whole discussion is going?
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: I’m not disagreeing with anything, just trying to add context.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
I assume it will show up on the Waudog.com site in the US soon – I don’t know why it would be Ukraine-only.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
That is something that I started wondering about the other evening, when we were discussing fantasy encounter air engagements between inbound Russian bombers met in Russian airspace by Ukrainian MIG-29s sneaking over the Russian border.
The thing is that the old Soviet radar air defense coverage started much farther West and/or North than the Ukrainian border, and was presumably designed to pick up bogeys inbound from Germany, Italy, Turkey, the UK, etc., then hand them off to radars farther in. Which apparently worked well with high-performance aircraft such as U-2s, and even Mathias Rust’s little Cessna, which landed in Red Square in 1987 was tracked all the way.
But I wonder whether the Russians have been diligent about updating their net to cover the Ukrainian border. Especially in view of the fact that politically speaking, Ukraine is supposed to be Russia, after all, and it takes a lot of time and effort and money and will to bother, as well as belief in the existence of a threat justifying all of those. There could be a lot of holes in that coverage. And NATO ELINT would know about every single one to within less than a meter resolution.
Geoduck
Newsweek did fold, and is now just a website owned by a reportedly-sketchy right-winger. So anything it produces should be taken with a grain of salt.
OverTwistWillie
In theory, the strategic air bases be covered by S-400s, and idk, maybe point defense systems?
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
“Time”, on the other hand, was bought by the Salesforce.com guy.
sdhays
@Martin: And yet they still over-committed themselves.
Amir Khalid
@Geoduck:
Have you noticed that magazine and newspaper racks are no longer found in stores? All kinds of print publications have had to go online-only in the past decade, as more and more people lose the habit of reading physical newspapers and magazines.
way2blue
@Gin & Tonic: The discussion last night about the sabotaged sub-stations in Moore County reminded me of a Wired article I read a few years back »
A Ukrainian engineer was looking out the window of his home, I think it was New Year’s Eve, wondering which infrastructure Russia was going to sabotage that year (I think it had been the train system the previous year). And as he looked—blocks of city lights winked out. He headed to the power station to restart the power grid, but instead he helplessly watched the cursor on his computer screen move on its own, opening stuff & clicking stuff off…
I knew hardly anything about Ukraine at the time, but that story stuck with me…
buskertype
trying to figure out what the guy in the video of the cruise missile is doing? what is he shooting at? why isn’t he taking cover? just shooting for fun? Is he shooting at the missile? does that work?
Redshift
I’m impressed by the description of the defense against the incoming missiles: “not all missiles were intercepted.” It wasn’t that long ago that it was half, or 60%. Now the systems have improved enought that news accounts are casually pointing out that they didn’t get all of them.
Carlo Graziani
@Redshift: The reported damage, according to the Telegram post cited at ISW, is to “power lines”. Which doesn’t sound like the kind of thing that ought to take repair crews too long to restore. Kind of like a serious wind storm.
If that checks out as the actual battle damage assessment by tomorrow, we will have real data on the growing impotence of Russian missile strikes. It would show that their munition inventory really is dwindling, while the Ukrainian anti-air defense capacity is burgeoning.
JAFD
@Amir Khalid:
Unfortunately, when some doofus solemnly tells you “Time is Money”, you can no longer reply
“No, it’s not.
They may be published by the same company, but they are distinctively different magazines.”
Jay
@buskertype:
why isn’t he taking cover?
The missile is heading elsewhere.
Is he shooting at the missile? does that work?
yes he is shooting at the missile and yes, sometimes it works.
lowtechcyclist
Good morning, Kursk!
oldster
@Carlo Graziani:
„…even Mathias Rust’s little Cessna, which landed in Red Square in 1987 was tracked all the way.…“
I wonder. The wiki page goes into a lot of detail about which parts of the Soviet AF tracked him and accompanied him, sporadically, during his flight to Moscow. So, various parts of the Soviet govt. later claimed that they were not deceived. But the wiki page also talks about how a lot of generals got fired afterwards. Mass firing of the responsible personnel sounds more like there was a mass failure of the system. Were they fired despite successfully tracking and intercepting him? Or are the claims of tracking a later attempt to save face? I cannot tell from what little I know.
But with this new Ukrainian operation, it looks to me a lot like an F-35 could have a field-day buzzing around inside the borders of ruzzia, and come home without a scratch.
Overall, the ruzzian war machine is looking extremely decrepit.
lowtechcyclist
@oldster:
Seems that practically everyone in a position to do so was far more interested in finding ways of pocketing the money that would have gone to maintaining and improving their military, and way less interested in actually maintaining and improving it.
No complaints from me. :-)
ETA: That’s why they call it a kleptocracy.